blonde poker forum

So this pot might haunt me for a while.

Blinds are 6,000-12,000/1,000

About 40 remain from 1080 starters, so average is 540k. I have 250k

UTG I find TT

I make it 24k to play.

MP has just bluffed off 90% of his chips the previous hand. He moves all in for 40k.

Passes to the big blind who is chip leader at the table with approx 800k.

He announces all in.

A little history on the all in guy.

He is a 60+ year old Scottish guy who is pretty wealthy and plays poker as a hobby. He is a rec, but he is trying very very hard to win/play well.

Although he was CL and I was the small stack, the two occasions when it is passed to his sb he has given me a walk

Also, every time he has raised previously he has just put chips in rather than making a verbal declaration. Except once, when he said "raise" before putting his chips in. He had KK in that spot.

Although this is the first time he's moved all in so this is slightly different.

FWIW my read is that circa 0% chance he is making move to get heads up with the all in guy getting good odds.

Should I call or pass?

I'd fold. Those old boys have AK and JJ+ always

(apart from when you reveal he had 77)

I was thinking 77 must be about the bottom and possibly some AQ combos to go with his AK ones.  Or he has lost his head.   Maybe he doesn't go so big with AA or KK, maybe he does.  I don't think it should haunt you whatever you did as I think it is close, as ICM can get you pretty bad here. I probably fold. 

Unless he accidentally exposes his cards and shows sevens, I'm assuming it's a race or worse and folding. Cost you 24k to make a bad fold and your stack to make a bad call.

Fold on balance probably as described.

I am in the fold camp but don't agree with this statement.

No one ever does.

Made me chuckle. Anyway, even in game when I get a bit braindead I'd fold this cause he's much more likely to have you beat than not have you beat

I don't think he is much more likely to have us beat than not, I expect we are something much closer to 50% vs his range.  I think we fold because ICM says we should.

I am not there and have no idea of Keith's opening stats UTG, which could make a big difference to how the rec perceives him, but even knowing that, I think we are arguing about which side of the 50% we are and we should just fold.  Maybe walk away so we don't see the 77 vs AK and the ten on the flop.  Still think fold is probably right whatever Keith has been doing. 

I think you have to get it in. Really depends on the guy and if you can soul read him here, but on paper he should be wide enough here for us to have a profitable get in with TT.

Let's assume you are playing fairly tight and this is online then I'm not really liking it. To him the action probably looks like he needs a really strong hand to announce all-in.

I think your decision will only haunt you if you are going to be results orientated. I would lean towards a fold tbh but I wouldn't be too harsh on you if you called.

i gii. you only have 20bbs right? i think he will jam 88+ aq+ maybe potentially wider.

Think he'd show more of a decision if he was weak and always has it. Breath in deep and announce all in guys always have it

Of course I'm being results orientated by saying it will haunt me.

But it's hard not to be, how many times a year am I at the last 4 tables of a monkey tournament which pays £130k to the winner?

I normally play super fast and my gut reaction was to call, I think against 80% of villains it an obvious call.

But I dwelled for a few seconds and thought it through.

I didn't think he had AA. I feel like he would have made a funky min raise sort of thing with the boots.

I feel like he would have called with 66 through 99 and possibly AQ too.

My read was he had exactly AK, KK, QQ or JJ.

I spoke to him while I was thinking. He answered immediately and confidently. This weighted me towards him having the big pair.

With JJ I would have called, but I reluctantly laid it down.

He had AK obv and the flop was QQT :(

Yeah I would call it off exactly what Patrick said... not really icm considerations when there is still 40 left and you are the ss. .. play for the win imo, like u say not very often you are going to be in that situation for that sort of buy In but huge amount to winner.

Roughly thought I was even money to be an even money shot.

5/4 to be a 5/1 shot.

10/1 to be a 1/5 chance.

I'd struggle to fold here. Kinda player dependant, like you say, vs 80% of people i'm getting it in here. There are some people I'd fold against. Have to be there in the moment to know which way to go.

I wouldn't be considering icm with 40 players left when I'm a shortstack.

think u are better to gamble here. additionally factor in that raise fold off 20bigs will expose you to aggro players taking advantage in future hands too.

I fold against the player described.