blonde poker forum

You win some, you lose some. In the Internet Poker Secxtion, I described how I got very lucky on the first hand of the $10k on Crypto tonight.

But earlier, in the $5k Guaranteed on Sporting Odds.com, I busted out the very first hand.

Holding  Jd Ts I called a small pre-flop Raise.

The flop came.....

 Ac Kc Qd

BINGO - or is it? First to speak bets big, second to speak Re-Raises all-in, third to speak calls all-in.

Obviously, I have the absolute - but temporary - Nuts. I call.

I am facing

 Aspades Qh

 Ad 8s

 9c 7c

9-7 man turns his flush, & that's that, I am out. No regrets either.

If this hand happened to YOU on the very first hand of a biggie - say the WSOP - what would you have done?

I assuimed, by the way, that I was facing a flush draw, & 2 pairs or trips, when I made the decision to call.

id call. you have to put your money in when you are ahead or you would never win anything, if you get outdrawn so be it, unfortunatley its part of the game

Agree, but I'm not used to going out that early in comps, I try to last at least 3 hands if possible.

If it WSOP, I'd expect to be up against top 2 pair, a set, and a straight flush draw.

My brain would say call, but my heart would say fold.

I try to listen to my brain more than my heart, so I would call.

My brain would say "DUH"


My heart would say "Thud thud thud thud"

Call every time,  no question.

i magine starting the WSOP main event with 40,000 chips!

It was a no-brainer in a $30 online comp, but in a biggie, I'd need to think. I believe I would still call, but the old cheeks would be well clenched.

You must be around 50-50. I can't imagine too many pros would embace a 50-50 at this early stage. I reckon they'd still call though.

You have to call, your getting 3/1 and you hold the nuts.

It would be a nasty way to go out, but imagine if you passed and two bricks came on the turn and river. When your out pushing with rubbish on day 2 you'd be thinking 'why didn't I call?'. 

Pushing rubbish? Me?

Would you be at all tempted to fold on the first hand of the WSOP main event?

You'd HAVE to think about it, surely?

No, there is no valid arguement for passing here.

I'd certainly be tempted.

I'm not sure I'd be playing my first WSOP main event solely to win. I'd be there for the experience. Not just one 50-50 hand.

But I'm sure I'd still call. I guess quadrupling up would assure me of a good few hours in the comp.

I've thought about these WSOP first hand scenarios many a time.

I might take a moment to prepare myself for a crushing emotional blow, but I would not contemplate folding.  

what a dilema


for me the fact that 3 people have moved in front of you makes me more likely to call than if its just one

if you are considering passing the nuts you have to consider what the others must have in order to call


i would expect someone to be on the flush draw    but surely it has to be the nut flush draw

maybe someone has the jack ten with you so they are no danger

but where you may have the great advantage is if two of the callers have the same draw and are blocking each other

if one has two pair and the other has trips or if two have a flush draw your in great shape

so put your chips in and hope the nuts stays as the nuts

and imagine what  ;bigglesdog; said   what damage could you do with 40k in chips after the first hand  on day 1

Oh YES. Imagine the POWER.......

If anyone passes they shouldn't be playing poiker

i wouldn't have called the pre flop raise. J 10 off has a -ve expectation from any position, especially against a raise infront of you.

Thanks johnmul, & welcome to blonde, an interesting frist Post.

Early in a comp, with the blinds at the minimum level, I would always call, in position, with J-T off, in fact I'd call with a lot worse. A -ve expectation assumes that your cards win or lose at "face value", when in fact, we often enter hands KNOWING we are behind, or likely to be behind, with the sole intention of getting someone "off their hand" or stealing the blinds. So it matters not if you are holding J-T or 2-9, your cards are irrelevent. The flop comes A high, both blinds check, you bet, they pass. So it is not necessarily true that the -/+ve expectations that books recite have too much relevance. Winning players don't have better hands than anyone else, on the whole, they just play bad hands better.

I would think entering most hands with suited connectors also has -ve expectations, but again, many, many, good judges would enter a hand with them, especially in position, & if they miss the flop, as they mostly do, then play themselves out of trouble. But the books will say "the -ve expectation means you must pass". This is where I struggle with poker "textbook" stuff, it preaches "straight up & down" stuff, ABC Poker, & you need a seriously good run of Premium hands to win playing that game.

I can think of a whole lot of blondeites who would call a small R with J-T off with blinds at the minimum level.

WellChief. On the face of it, true, certainly in almost any "ordinary" comp. But, as snoops says, to regular guys like he & I, the WSOP "Biggie" would be the experience of a lifetime, & I'd want to savour every moment of it, be in the comp for a few days, then take it from there. If I was put to the test on the very first hand, with the prospect of busting immediaterly, I am not 100% certain I would be able to get all my chips in. I HOPE I would, but I am sure a few of us might fail the "bottle test". Hence the question! But yes, in a run-of-the-mill comp, the money goes in without a seconds hesitation. As it did yesterday, wiith no regrets, despite the flush hitting.

There is another hand to consider. If they were getting it all in in the first hand of the WSOP I'd expect at least one, probably two of your opponents also has J,10. You do not want to see J,10 of clubs when the cards get turned over.

Too right, but you still call, certainly in a normal comp, but if it were the first hand of the WSOP, & you thought one of them was freerolling with the same hand + flush draw, would you still call?

 :pop:

If your up against 2x J,10 and one of them is J,10 of clubs. Then a pass is correct, you can only win 3,333 chips.
Despite last nights bravado I must confess, having slept on it, that I might pass here.

Surely, the other two would not be going all in with draws in the WSOP

A plausable scenario, is that the first guy has AA, second in has J, 10 and the third then has the odds to call with Q,J of clubs.

I'd call, even in the first hand of the WSOP.

8000 entrants, there must be a few who are nutters intent on getting all-in on the first hand no matter what so they have a "story"

If you are up against 2 * J10 then at lest you'll have a story  :D


I agree 100%
It's never wrong to think about it. Assuming thinking too much doesn't hurt your game ie, over-thinking a scenario to the point where you draw the wrong conclusions.

If you are gambling because you are in the rebuy stage, this play is fine, however, in a freezeout, I believe this play is just too costly and risky.

J10 is an overrated hand at best, here, you flop the nuts but your only 52% to win the hand. And its probably worth pointing out that if A8 had folded and you were up against only 2 hands, your still only 50% to win the hand. Even if you get called just by the flush draw, your still not that far ahead. Worse case scenario is probably against a set and a flushdraw were your only 39% to the sets 36%.

So no matter what you flop with J10 ,after cold calling a raise with at least 4 runners, your probably not going to be far ahead. The wisest play here is probably to pass pre-flop unless your gambling, in which case you shouldnt have a problem calling all the way

Even in the WSOP you can still rebuy for the following day so I would call.

Btw if i have this wrong please feel free to shoot me down its secondhand information for me.

Shoot him.

Sounds like bollox to me. I think it will max out at 8,000 and there will be no option to re-buy.

There certainly would not be if you were in the 4th heat, Players drawn on this day would be at a disadvantage.

Who told you this newmanseye?

It was  conversation that tony chessa was having in the riverboat not long after he got back from WSOP and there was a comment made that a few people who busted out coule buyin for the second or third day, Also there was a the option to buy in late to the tourney after it had been running.

I may have taken it wrongly but thats what I remember.

It depends why they're sitting at the table.

The posituion is this.

You can NOT re-buy. 100% certain.

It is possible to enter the WSOP Main Event AFTER Day One, as there were 3 opening days in 2005. 75% sure.

Fair enough, Thanks for the confirmation Tikay, I was not sure thats why I said it was second hand information

Are we missing something here?

How many of us here would stump up the money to rebuy?

MikkyT would, its adding value to the prizepool!!!!

enjoying this thread lots of good opposing views


tikay did you see from this years world series main event

this was the very first hand   sam farha  against a guy i think was in his first ever main event

newbies finds  Td Th   and raises in middle position

sam calls in late position

flop comes down    Ac Ahrt Ts

so newbie flops a boat   and checks to sam

sam bets    newbie  raises      sam moves allin   the whole 10k
 T

newbie checks  his  cards again and calls all in

sam shows  Aspades Tc

aces full for a bigger boat and the nuts


so if you flop a house first hand of the main event could you pass to an allin on the flop????

nice to see such open minded stand points in a debate.
with the benefit of position you can se the three people have enough of this flop to commit their entire stack. think about it this way.
none of them can be drawing dead but you cannot improve.

in a STT or a cash game it's a no brainer call. in the first hand of a MTT if the game matters at all to you and you have faith in your skill its an easy pass

I saw this and there's no way I cpuld have passed.

I would have put Sam on trips, AQ say, not the full house.

Also, this is slightly different as Tikay's hand is vulnerable to outdraws, this is more a case of 'Do I have the best hand?'

Still, must have hurt. Ouch!

I'm not sure I'd say it was an easy pass beacause you're still the favourite to win the hand.

only because of the muppet with A8
replace that with KJ or similar and you're less than 50% to win the hand
you're bust, you're out
pass

Interesting i honestly don't think it is the correct decision to pass but we are faced with decisions in poker as in life that the risk is so great that the correct decision is hard to make. If you use wardonkeys possible 3 other hands on the flop the % are as follows.

 Ad Ahrt 33.29%
  Jh Tc   39.76% to tie (so really ev of 20%)
 Qc Jc    26.95% (+6% to tie)
You       39.76% (again 20% ev)

So if the other j 10 has moved in before you here you are incorrect to call as your 25% of the pot only represnts 20% in equity. Its a funny game.  I STILL thinking folding is a mistake tho as it is very difficult (impossible) to put them on these specific hands

but what about if you are against 2 sets of trips or 2 flush draws

Yeah if you stick in qq instead of qj of clubs your ev shoots up to a massive 33% making it the correct call. So yes if 2 of them have the same draw (to house up or flush up) the maths goes back in your favour

I gotta say, I'm LOVING this.

We began with "no-brainer - auto-call" & now, after deliberation, the well, actually, "MAYBE it is a pass" thoughts are arriving.

Fascinating!

I'd deffo be put on the clock......and I think I may need a nappy too.

Keep it coming.

OK, off to Brighton now. Will dwell up on this southbound.

why put all your chips in first hand if you're less than 50% to win.
if you have  Qs Qc and are on the BB 1st hand and it passes round to SB who raises all in and you knew for a fact he had  Ahrt Kh do you call? I know you're a slight favourite but you're putting your whole tuorney on a gamble which if you win you dont definitely cash but if you lose you definitely dont.

theres no need to call here unless you think quadrupling up is the only way you can win the tourney

Cos you can quadruple up and take a commanding chip lead.

or crash out 1st hand.

as I say, if the tournet itself means very little to you, ie there's be another along in 10 minutes or there's a juicey cash game you want to get to then fine. if winning the tourney is important I thinkthere are better ways of gathering chips.

That's a completely different situation - taking a 50:50 shot when being offered about 1:1, instead of taking a 50:50 when being offered a bit more than 3:1.

I remember reading an entry in Paul Phillips' blog that had a similar discussion - he had called all in a hand with a draw with favourable odds, people commented that he should pass and use his skill to beat the table. He said his skill was making the call (http://www.tech-pc.co.uk/forum/images/smiles/scratch.gif)

Makes me laugh.. I don't give a monkey's what they have..I AM AHEAD.

If you fold this you should take up another game. something like Bingo might suit you

I have to ask If this hand is not good enough to get all your chips in, what is?   If you had flopped the nuts flush would that be good enough? And then the guy with the set boats on the end.

Get em in when you are ahead..You can't ask for anymore.JMHO

If you are not going to put your money on the line when you have the nuts when are you??

If you had aces preflop and someone moves in before you, do you fold as you could be outdrawn??

If we thought like this on every hand we played we would want to make sure we got down to the river on every hand and then had the best possible hand and how often does that happen??

I think if you can pass the nuts at any stage of a tourney then you shouldnt be playing in that game, as it is affecting your play.

If im playing in WSOP ME, skillwise i am at disadvantage to alot of the field. Therefore im going to get my chips in a positive situation like this one. You ONLY laydown the queens vs ak as well if you KNOW you have a significant advantage over the field, cos of the blinds you are slightly more than 1:1 and the queens are just ahead 53 vs 47, so im playing them the majority of the time,i might lay them down at Notts on Tuesday/ Wednesdays cos i believe i have an edge against the field there.

I think the debate was initally about whether or not you'd be willing to risk a first hand exit at the WSOP ME.

Yeah i understand that snoopy just saying that the situation changes if you are playing a different weaker field. As stated above in the WSOP i call

Isn't whether to play this also effected by the rake and the non linearity of tournament chips?

Being honest i would fold first hand of the WSOP for 2 reasons:-

1. I would think that people are only gonna go allin here with trips or a flush draw (both) and so and pairup or club is gonna knock me out, that's a lot of outs spread over the other players.
2. It's the WSOP!!! i wanna last longer than 1 hand!!!

if you're more likely to lose the hand than not, it doesn't matter if the pot odds are right or not, it's got to be a bad tournament strategy. if you change the A8 to two pair which is more likely you are going to loose this more than half the time. if you were second to speak and player one had made the big bet of course you move in. if there's been a bet and an all in raise I call. once there's been a bet, all in raise and all in call I can assume the original bettor is pot commited what ever I do. I'm nost likely to be against a flush draw and two lots of two pair. I could find one of them has  Jc Tc and is free rolling for the flush. tats a worst case but not all that unlikely given the action.

All I am saying is that it's not an automatic call. in a £30 game at the local I would call. if it was a major event I pass because the whole point about deep stack poker is not risking it all on one spin. in an online $30 MTT as this was I call because if I lose it's no big deal. WSOP ME 1st hand I pass because I'm not flipping a coin for 40 000 chips when that wont even be a big blind at the final table.

I'm wavering on this debate.

Some1 needs to push me.

Im not saying I'd be thinking about the final table, I'm just putting in perspective the size of the pot. I personally think that given the position we have and the information at our disposal it's reckless to put all our chips in when we're 50% at verry best but possible as low as 30%. I know we're getting 3/1 so anything above 25% is right but I think there'll be other hands I can play. It's not about being scared it's about styles. somepeople get there chips through big explosive hands and others build gradually.

I Would be interested to see what DC and maybe YO YO and a few of the other PRO players think of this.

I just can't fold this no matter what comp, WSOP or not..   I always ask myself "AM I AHEAD" If yes then the chips go in, no more questions asked.

If i fold and would have won, i will be mad at myself for a month, And would being sitting there looking at my stack thinking "YOU MUPPET YOU WERE AHEAD" and could have played very little the rest of the day.

If i lost, well I had the best hand when the chips went in, no shame in that at all

This isn't about styles unless your style is to pass up good opportunities then it's a pass. You aren't going to get deep in the WSOP without laying your stack on the line in good situations occasionally (unless you have some major major rush!)

I've run a few calculations and your equity runs close to 40% here(could be better could be worse.) So by passing you are giving up roughly 16000 in chips.

In equity terms it's a similar pass to folding AA to KK on the 1st hand. Please don't tell me you'd pass this!

You'd need a gargantuan size edge over the field to pass this. I'm thinking tyrannasaurus rex size. At the WSOP you can't beleive you have this.

Lots of top pros and theorists including Raymer, Phillips and Sklansky have written material covering these situations before. They delve much deeper into the maths of it all, and unanimously advise callingl.

The only reason to pass is you just want to soak up the atmosphere of the tourney and winning or going deep is not your main aim. Even then i think you are better served taking this gamble, which will give you a much better chance of experiencing what it is like to play long into a big stack tournament.

PLaying amongst a lot of more experienced players, you'll be put in much tougher spots than this. Take this easy decision and call!

gobsmacked is all i have to say!

I have read all the replies and no-one has made a proper case for folding.

People talk about the good players 'edge' this edge comes from knowing when too gamble and when you should pass. Folding the nuts is insane.

I wouldn't even think, my chips are in the pot so fast that they will need a new felt because of the scorch marks!

well that goes without saying flushie

And you say you are not a rock! You pass the nuts!

I would expect to be up against set's rather than draws here, making my edge even bigger!

I never said I wasnt a rock.

I can loosen up from time to time but 1 - 10 wight to aggressive I'm around a 3. this situation might aswell be tiaky playing holdem and a single opponent playing six card omaha on the same flop.

I'd never fold here. And people who said they would because it was the first hand of the WSOP are letting the event become more important than the cards. Someone said last year that x amount of players could end up all-in first hand with AA vs KK and one fifth of them would be cracked. So there would be a number of players out first hand with cracked aces!

If it's the PL Omaha event, then I would fold though. :D

In each heat of 2,000 at the WSOP I'd expect AA vs KK on one of the tables once every two hands. (ish)

I have PM'd  links to this thread to The Rookie, The Boy Thewy, & Monty Burns. I think I  know what THEY would do. But it IS different for us regular guys, who, with maybe just one chance to play the WSOP Biggie, want to savour ther atmo for a few days. It just is. Mind you, I think I WOULD call. Then again.....

i'm afraid my reply isn't very exciting - i'd happily call every time.
outdraws happen, hey i went-in in front!
i've been all-in in big tournies with hands alot lot worse than the nuts  /:-|

This is quite a common situation in Omaha. You are sat in late position with anut straight, but the action in front of you indicates that 1 player has trips and 1 has a flush draw. Between them they have 14 to 17 outs againts your hand (which means that you are less thna 50% to win the hand). You should never 'call' in a scenario like this in a competition risking your existance., but you may be getting correct pot odds in a cash game.
However you are playing hold'em here. How do you know someone has the flush draw? You don't do you. How do you know soemone has trips or even 2 pair. On this board there would have been some huge indicators pre-flop if someone held AA,KK,QQ or even AK. You should have a lot more information to make the decision.
If this was the WSOP main event, I'm sure I would have picked up a reaction on the player who has just been called. I would have to take a lot more things into consideration. I would be looking for lots more clues. However the most likely outcome is that I call.
I would suggest that it is unlikely and unlucky at hold'em to be looking at one flush draw and one set. it is more likely that they both have a set (and this is a great situation against two sets). They could both a flush draw. One may AK and the other QJ clubs. there are countless sceneraios where you are in great shape with a great chance of tripling up.
No guts No glory. Stick it in.
 ;hide;

I cant believe I answered this already and my post has disappeared. I advocated folding if it was the first hand of the ws for the simple reason someone has already got the nut str8 with you and you are also up against a set/2 pair and the flush draw. This means you are playing an even money pot on less than 50% terms (assuming you are up against boat draws and flush draw). I said it was correct to pass the nut str8 in omaha on the flop so why is it not in this circumstance if you are sure you are against both draws? After I typed all the maths and stuff in I then said I would still call because I am stupid and would scream badbeat when I lost and headed for the rail. (why am I in a raised pot with TJ is what I would be asking so early in the comp)

Also, someone could have  Jc Tc

it's the old is the glass half full or is it half empty.
I could have an accident on the motorway tonight driving to Glasgow but I think it is unlikely because most of the time I dont. (even though I am blind)

If your blind I reraise

Quite compelling reasons for both the fold and the call. In my opinion its a question of utility. What is your aim of playing in the tourney?

If you are in the wsop for the first time, and the primary objctive is just to soak in the experience, play with the professionals, and generally experience the wsop fully, then the correct decision is most likely a fold.

If your goal is to maximize your EV, then its a really clear call.

Its similiar to the canonical "would you fold AA first hand" question, and the same principle applies.


So the answer isn't a yes or a no, the answer is to ask yourself  "what is my goal in the wsop", and through deriving that goal, you derive the correct answer to this question... because contrary to popular belief, not everyone plays poker with the sole objective of making money or maximizing their EV

Excellent Post by Totalise, I don't play poker purely to win, it's something I enjoy imrnensely, & I want to be at the table as long as I can, which is maybe my biggest weakness as a player, but not necessarily as a person. But I think I'd call.

Great, & very thorugh, response by Monty, who came up with angles that nobody else had mentioned. I think he may have a future in the game.

But surely a call and winning would enable you to maximise your chances of soaking up the atmosphere and enjoying the event for longer. (As JungleCat said earlier)

Correct. And a loss would mean the greatest experience of my Poker Life, which I'd looked forward to for months, & would probably never be able to  play again, would be over after 1 hand.

But on balance, I think I'd call - if my nerve did not fail me!

After reading this thread through Tikay, I realised that you should have passed.

I mean at your age the long term EV might not come to fruition over the LOOOONNNNGGG haul, you have to take the wins when you get them and gamble less.

Surely you are due for the free bus pass off the government soon?

Yup, Bus Pass due in 18 years.

But to be serious, more & more I do think "this may be my last year". Not in a sad or morbid way, but it is what it is, & has to be faced. So I live for today, & on that basis, I guess I ought to call. I get blinded away a lot in poker, but it won't happen in life, I'm going out foot to the floor!!

Sorry about the joke I feel like a proper git nowv   :blonde:, I had no idea this was going to be your last year mate.  The call was the right one regardless, If you dont get your money in with the Nuts then you should not sit down at the table.

I look forward to seeing you at Blonde Bash 2  8)

Not at all , I think we had a "whoosh" there. My (badly made) point is that I am 47, going on 50, & we don't live for ever. But I am hoping I have a year or two yet, you don't get rid of me THAT easy!

Yep  a whoosh for sure   :blonde:

Well at least I have another year or so to relieve you of youyr bankroll. :D

Thought you were a Scot? You have NO chance my friend! They can't play up there. Stick to cheating in quizzes would be my advice.

See you at the next Bash!

Who mentioned playing, I am talking about mugging!!

Oops. 1-1 in the Whoosh Stakes.

Well I would just like to Thank the Pro's for popping in and giving us their view on it...I think it always makes a big difference to see what they would, or might do...Thank you.

Only on Blonde do you get this kind of thing..Fantastic

 :goodpost:

This sums up my feelings on it exactly.

Nice one Laz, that's precisely where my dilemma emenated from.

Anytime mate, no problem.

Gotta love this ifm fella, eh?

Great Railbird too.

rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao

Oh you do crack me up mate, Look forward to meeting ya someday.

I agree, it's great to hear players like El Blondie, Thewy, JP ,( IFM) and others post their viewpoints. Mucho respect, it adds a depth of perspective that enriches the analysis.

IFM in brackets? I sense a Mr Angry Post winging it's way in this direction.....

As soon as you start mentioning names you leave people out. I opted either for a parenthesised (Is this a word??) IFM or a full fledged Tikay and plumped for what i felt was the lesser of two evils...collateral damage was inevitable...

.

Stop digigng Cat. IFM's gonna eat you. And another thing - how comes he's a "lesser evil" than me? I object

Ok, i'm putting the spade down, and my hands in the air, waving a large white handkerchief....

I surrender....

(If it will stop IFM eating me, i'd like to point out i eat old fish and knaw on chicken bones, and clean my entire body with my tongue...and i mean ENTIRE BODY!....still hungry??)

mmmmm i like a bit of tongue.............