blonde poker forum

While watching a recent poker show, the commentator said" it's a 7/1 that he will improve his pair of sevens"

Is this true?........... 2 more 7's in the pack heads up= 2/48..........=24/1 surely?

or am i wrong?????

Each card dealt is 24/1 but there are multiple cards dealt...

obviously the expert comentator (Michael Greco) was wrong then?

if you hold a pocket pair, you are 7.5/1 to hit trips so he was only .5 out

I hold 77.............2 more cards in the deck.............2/48, heads up...........surely 24/1 shot???? please explain my mistakes?

blimey!

First card you have a 48/50 chance (48 non-seven cards left, 50 cards left in the deck), second card is 47/49, third card is 46/48. Those come out to .96, .959, and .958. Multiply them and get .882, or an 88.2% chance of NOT getting any sevens on the flop. (continue calcs for 4th and 5th cards). Invert it to figure out what your chances really are and you get .118 or 11.8%. This will be your chance to get one or two sevens.

On the flop there are 3 cards so the first card out you have a 2/48 chance, howver if you miss there the second card out will have a 2/47 and the third card will be 2/46.

2/48 + 2/47 + 2/46 = well lets call it 6/47 which is 12.7%, about 1/7.8

I think.

edit Or what IFM said.

Further edit

My figures would have been correct if heads up against an opponent who had cards other than yours. Lets go with 7 and a lot.

7-1 isn't too far off I guess.

I've always gone by the figure 8-1. No need to be too precise.

BTW 11.8% is 7.5/1

Just checking as people were questioning my grasp of odds??

Now I can back it up with knowledge, nice one boys

i said 7.5/1

thanks ian

Sorry to disapoint Dan but the 11.8% (7.5/1) are the odds on improving on a pocket pair:-

A set 8.3/1 (10.8%)
A full house 136/1 (0.74%)
Quads 407/1 (0.25%)

ian im quite sure that you are 7.5/1 to flop a set whist holding a pair