blonde poker forum

I am sure i have this right but can you please cast your eye over it and check that i am not missing something?

A  player puts a package up for sale at  a MU of 1.162, he takes 50% of the action himself.
His abi is $66  his roi is 82% over a big sample with 700K profit.

Total package cost $3528 with MU comes to $4100 a difference of $572

His 50% costs him $3528/2= $1764, if we then take off the MU of $572, this package is costing him $1192

Firtly, have i got that right
Secondly, on those stats does it seem a good buy
Thirdly, i assume MU generally is because he thinks he is better than most others in the field and can therefore charge a premium on his services

I am sure i have this right but would value opinions.

Regards

Steve

He is getting $2050 for the 50% he sells. Buy ins are $3528 so he is putting up $1478.

The key is to check we are comparing like with like. Lots of players show a great ROI for say all games then sell for a load or hard games/hypers/turbos etc where their expected ROI will be lower than the ROI they have got in other games. You also need to factor in trustworthiness etc. Whilst the package the Nigerian prince might seem great, if we have little chance of seeing the money we need to factor this in!

Third point, yes.

Some words of caution from an former twoplustwo MP staking reg. The majority if this is concerning your 2nd question.

I've learnt the hard way.

This might turn into a ramble but hope you don't mind. :)

this is in no particular order or structure, but its useful imo.

* use bankroll management, an mtt pro has losing days considerably more than winning days (Pads exluded) so you migt need to suffer a lot of losses. I used to send $50-80 regularly to players for small pieces of high variance schedules when all the while I grinded $5-22 mtt's on stars. If I had my time again, I'd much rather just use the $ to play the big 55 on my own.

* Often on 2p2 people are selling because they're on a downswing. A lot of the packages and regulars are -EV. I can link some threads discussing this exact topic if you like.

* When the COOPs come around, a lot of the very best regs will sell % because it's so much money. These can produce some very nice packages.

* a good tip for checking a players stats is to filter for games with small fields (which you can do on Sharkscope) and you can see how they are doing. The reasons why I like this filter is because they're generally very "reggy" mtt's, so you can see how they fair against other top players. Also, smaller fields mean that the data is less likely to be skewed by a huge score (such as a COOP victory) and generally the stats will converge better.

All that said, I've had some nice MP "scores" on occasion and have seen some people buy %'s of Sunday Milly FT's as well as Super Tuesday, so its not all bad. But definitely don't seee it as an easy way to get rich.

I think the key is to be selective. Pads sold last Sunday, which im gutted I missed.

Thanks for the maths, that makes sense.

Thanks for the detailed reply, I did see the Pads one but a bit rich for me.

Gd post this.

The problem with the 2+2 marketplace is that anyone good is just going to pm some of their friends and swap/sell the action instead. So many regs selling everyday in the MP and you just wonder if its such a good deal how come their mates aren't taking the action instead. This doesn't quite hold true for live action but it still applies somewhat (just because of the sheer size in the buyins)

Backing players in mid-high stakes mtts without makeup (and paying a premium to do it) must be nigh on impossible to show a profit, unless of course you get mega lucky quickly over a small sample.*  If once in a while you want to take a punt on someone turning $100 into $10k for you, then absolutely have a spin.  If you are regularly taking a $100 slice of someone though, much much much better to fully stake a player (with makeup, but without a premium) in micro/low stuff that has a proven track record.

* And yes, this agrees with other posts ^^ where for the most part, all the juicy stuff was sold/swapped out and you get to buy a bag of variance with some select mtts where even mates don't want any.

Thanks for all that guys, I just like to stake a little bit and get a good rail out of I even more so when i can't get to play myself, need that fix don't you know. Obviously to make a few bob too.

I do wish more was sold on Blonde kinda Mondooooooooish  :) or guys just popping in for a little hit and run, I would generally support when ever possible.

Incidentally the guy in the example above that i grabbed at random won $15k+

MBN

Was this part of the Aaron Gustavson (Aguskb) weekend tcoop on 2+2, I saw this and thought it was valooooo

No a different one, was goner say bad form for me to mention a players name but as he won some $$ I am sure he would be ok.  it was a guy SN of random :)

His packages were highlighted recently in MTTc as being close to scamming, and I agree, I posted in his thread ~9 months ago asking him to justify his markup and he couldnt.

Near scamming sounds a bit like an over reaction, I don't agree he has no justification in a markup, he won the trex and hot55 on the Saturday so that's enough to accept he has ability, sure he has roi's that are pretty low over any relative sample but short term backing like one day packages it's acceptable imo over festivals.
#variance

I would like to highlight that nearly everyone marks up the rake and I think that's near scamming.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=43545184&postcount=20


Seemed fair at the time and his response is equally laughable imo.


There are just so many bad packages. Like look at this one, you'd think it'd definitely be respectable given he is a coach from deucescracked etcetc.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/163/staking-selling-shares-online/yugiohpro-sunday-package-1509420/

$530 Sunday 500         (roi for top regs probably less than 40%. around 0-25% (max) for this guy who thinks it is tough with 450 registered etc. Btw I'm not saying it isn't tough, it absolutely is) 12.5%
$530 888 The Whale     (Great comp, lots of sat entries but lots of hs regs too, roi probably 15-50% I'll say 35%)
$425 APPT Seoul Qualifier (paid out as cash)*      (Sats have lower roi, and variance when compared to standard tournaments due to the nature of the payouts, I have legitimately no idea how soft this field is, it got ten runners I have three marked as regs and recognise 6/10 , and yugiohPro won ldo but lets say he has a 10-40% roi in this which seems reasonable) 25%
$215 Sunday Supersonic (hyperturbo 215 lots and lots of runners estimated roi -5 - 10%.) 3%

*If I skip this, I might play the Party 500 instead.

Total: $1700 x 1.117= $1900

So at best its marginally profitable for the investor and massively for him and at worst its just absolutely brutal. The 2+2 MP is just a sham.

In fairness we get a lot of terrible staking threads on here too.

If you want an answer on a staking question, just pm Simon Galloway. Man talks the most sense in this stuff and knows his shit.

This is completely backwards.

You're ignoring the large sample that suggests he's only a very slightly winning player saying "oh #variance" but then pointing out that he won 2 huge field tournaments therefore "he has ability".

It's totally the other way around.

Disclaimer: i've not looked at the OP nor know who this is, just going by what I've read here.

Re: Yugiohpro

I generally root for Jae, only because his vids taught be a fair chunk when I was needing to learn all that stuff. That said, have to agree with comments above.

The guy has a PGC and openly states he’s backed by a HS HU pro. There is a reason why his backer doesn’t want to do so for these mtt’s I would imagine.

Additionally, a friend of mine had a coaching session with Yugioh a year ago. As part of the session they chatted game selection and he had created a Sharkscope group which showed a collection of very top regs and ran some filters on different games. In the session Yugioh showed that the $215 turbos had something like 1% ROI amongst a large sample. 1 week later he sold these games at 1.12 (or similar).

Essentially, these guys are just trying to take advantage quite often.

He’s not even close to the worst offender though. I can’t fully recall who it was, but last week somebody sold the TCOOP High Roller at 1.10 or something and it snap sold out.

That reply to your questioning of his mark up is disgusting, and i'm not here to defend him. or anyone who sells at a unjustified mark up.

I personally wouldn't even consider backing anything in a business sense, poker is poker. If someone who I consider can play winner or small loser, and wants to mark up over TCOOP and festivals and such thats fine imo, i understand there is a higher amount of recs in these fields and i understand there are bigger prizepools and i'm buying for a sweat, i dont do it for a business sense and if i did i definitely wouldnt be backing stars MTT players.

go grind the shit out of 10k of turbo mtts have a small win/loss/breakeven then let me back you to play a day of tcoop at a markup. you'll only be a very slight winner unless you run golden of course. its still value to have a sweat in someone who has ability in one schedule or am i completely backwards? You just sold for your first highroller at a markup, is that completely backwards?

No because it's very similar to other things I've played.

There was a guy on here who always used to make the argument that if you haven't played that specific tournament ever before then you couldn't possibly justify a markup. For example, Bill has played many GUKPTs before and has won two, and made 9 finals, as well as being a big winner in other tours and online, but he's never actually played a GUKPT in Coventry, so therefore he cannot charge a markup.

"its still value to have a sweat in someone who has ability in one schedule or am i completely backwards".

I don't really understand what point you're making. If you want to stake to have a sweat in someone you know has the ability to win big tournaments then yes that's fine. There's all sorts of reasons to back people, not just financial. Darvin Moon came 2nd in the WSOP main event, he has the ability to go deep - so do most players. Doesn't make it a +EV investment. Might be a fun sweat though.

You want to back for a sweat, for a gamble - that's great, fair enough.

Many people want to back for financial reasons though, as investments - so they look for packages that are +EV.

If the packages were put up and it said I have had numerous deep runs and its a punt with potential for a big win that's fine. The packages aren't on that basis, the people selling try and make out they are good value. It generally happens by using appropriate statistics to back up mark ups, normally by including certain tournaments to show what mark up you can sell at then exclude these from the package being sold for! Eg here is a package of the tough $215+ and lots of turbos but I don't sell Warm Up and Sunday Million because I like to keep them for myself!

Cambridge vs Oxford? Such a cliche! (Sorry, couldn't resist).

On a serious note. Alex is correct in general. I think Mark Up in mtt's just needs to be justifiable and people need to be transparent. That's the main gripe with twoplustwo and in general.

When you're selling for an EPT High Roller its pretty hard to pull the wool over peoples eyes. Anybody who can afford a % knows enough about poker to know what the parameters are, and I imagine most people know him to some degree as well.

In other news, did anybody see Timex sell for the $250,000 SHR in Oz at 1.05. He then scooped 2nd. Must be nice.

There will always be fun players who back unjustifiable mark ups so the market will live on. I understand what is correct in EV terms and do not disagree.

I don't really understand what point you're making? You explained in that sentence what i meant. Having a piece of someone who has the ability to win big tourneys. All I'm saying is darvin moon checks back the nuts.

Grunching here

I would just caution anyone that buys a package to make sure they check out the players stats for themselves. People very often put up misleading graphs (I recall one reg put up a graph which inc a $40k PLO bink on a nlhe package) and put a positive slant on their stats omit certain game types or have random time periods.

Also another mark up scam i see a lot if players who are backed having all the juicy stuff to themselves and then sell for higher buy in stuff with very low roi at MU (and they likely -ev).

Other old tricks include posting OPR stats which hide that 90% of profits came from 3 years ago, having a huge pack with a mix of reg speed, turbos and hypers and do a blanket 1.2 MU but 90% of the games are HS turbos.
Not wanting to call anyone out specifially but I recall a PS pro and old school reg having a $40k package on a sunday at 1.2 and 80% of the games where HS turbos and hypers for example. He was rightly called out on it by someone and his sharkscope promptly blocked and he has not run packs since i think.

I occasionally sell packs on 2+2 myself and try to be as transparent as possible do mark up by tournament and post full graphs and then relevant graphs to the games I am selling for.

I very rarely buy as I truly believe there are not that many +ev packs out there (on 2+2 no idea about here). Pads is a good example of someone who is beating the games very obviously is not backed puts up fair MU and is clear about the games he plays and someone I have bought off and would snap buy again if I see it come up

I enjoy reading these sorts of debates. It is often brought up that people selling are on "downswings" but not much is said about that. A lot of people who have been playing for a long time and have good overall lifetime graphs will use the downswing to study their games and to improve. So you can be buying in people who not only have good lifetime results including the recent downswing to sway MU down slightly (hopefully) but they may also be studying and be a better buy now than while they were at the peak of their graph.

I  sold for a few months on 2p2 for my weekly schedule and would presume I didn't make a profit while selling there but I think the above paragraph applied to me and my situation but might not for others. I would do a double take and some research on those selling for every day they play and would never invest in someone who won't sell the high value tournaments like the million and warm up with the rest of their schedule.