blonde poker forum

Ok.  I will give you 10x 1/12 bets that YOU think are 1/20, find them and bring them to me, you would snap my arm off correct? now first of all that is your opinion that the price is a 1/20, punter (A) May think the true price is 1/16,  punter (B) may think 1/10. that is how  we have our bets matched on the exchange or with a bookie they are willing to lay us as they take a different view/opinion, a matter of opinion at times.

£120x 10 bets at 1/12

Arbboy liability 1.2k
Larry liability £100

You are having to stake 1.2k to win £100 max,   arbboy wins 11/12 bets, returns £1170 -30   Larry returns +30.   Now I understand if you are getting 1/8 on what is probably 1/100 but you used an example like this earlier about people being scared to back 1/12 when it is 1/20, may have been 1/8.

you are risking 1.2k(example) at times to win £100 a lot of the times based on you thinking you are almost always getting the correct price just because a bookie or trader is laying you it, do you not accept other traders may have built in strategies where they are not risking a lot of liability as that has worked over a long period for them and they are happy laying odds to punters like yourself knowing the true price is quite debatable but they can allow for plenty of losing bets with a lot less risk than you are playing with, arbboy if you are making millions then hats off but there are plenty of way to skin a cat and some people prefer the low risk strategy, surely the only way you can measure profit is against the amount risked.

I will leave you to find some 1/20 shot, but I may think they are 1/50, you can't always be correct now behave yourself and don't go blowing a gasket over this, we are all punters in our own way, easy on the keyboard also, have you down as a bit of a keyboard warrior.  

I am not trolling as you put it, I want to learn from you as you seem to have this game cracked.  Will you be in vegas this summer?? would quite enjoy a chat about the world of gambling.  Go easy.

Larry,

This is quite interesting, but it looks like it will run & run, & to my mind, it's not very relavant to Fred, we don't back that sort of stuff.

Any chance you could start a new Thread? All the Fred regulars will still be able to read it, but it'll save Fred getting clogged up with stuff we don't really do.

Thank you.

rules

no flaming

no trolling

no winding up


if it develops, fine

if not, nothing lost

I don't want to only back exactly 1/12 shots every time which i make 1/20 how many of them happen a year.  I want to back extreme shorties in general which you stated i can't make pay both this week and last week.  1/3 shots were discussed last week and dismissed by yourself as being impossible to back profitably over the long term.  Today it is even shorter odds on which are impossible to back long term profitably.  Obviously the vast majority won't be exactly 1/12.  I struggle to understand why it is totally possible to make backing anything with a 0-75% likelihood of winning profitable but as soon as it becomes 1/3 or shorter it isn't possible.  Where on the 0-100% probability timeline does it state that at 1/3 or shorter it is not possible to make a profit backing outcomes?


 The okc one is 1/12 and is estimated to be between 1/100 and 1/500 true price.  So that wouldn't apply to the rules you set.  I also want to back something at 1/200 which wouldn't apply to the rules you state like virtually all the bets i would find.  There are also a 1/7 shot which i make 1/50 which i have backed today and a 2/9 shot i make 1/20 which i have backed today.  

I am happy to put up every odds on shot i back over the year at any specific minimum price which you are free to set.  Be it 1/5 1/6 1/10 1/20.  Your choice.  A sample size of 12 bets obviously suits you as you have more chance to win as you obviously know.  Sample size of 100+ would be a much better guide of whether what i do is profitable but you know that and that is why you only suggest 12 bets as you only need one 'faller' to be freerolling.  

That last sentence,surprised you said that.

Well off the mark,more bets the better for me which may surprise you.  Just used the 10 as an example,  I assure you this is For tennis, when I used to trade a lot I would often back the loser of the first set in best of threes, or lay the winner of the first set.
Market would always over favour the first set winner.not trolling. The only problem could be is that you may throw 3 selections as a back but we are on the same page with it.

You are obviously on already so what is the 1/7 that you make 1/50?

Why does tennis keep getting mentioned?  I have never mentioned tennis and tennis in running at any point.  I am on about backing selections at 1/3 and shorter across any sport/event.  You state it cannot be done profitably.  I state it can.  The more you speak the more it is becoming obvious you are a troll and/or clearly don't understand the maths of gambling.

Well off the mark,more bets the better for me which may surprise you.  Can you explain how this makes sense when you are laying 1/12 shots which should be 1/20?  It is the identical spot as you keep backing 20/1 shots at 12/1 and you think the more bets you have the more money you will win?  You just have to be a troll.  I have been advised by senior guys on blonde to leave it as you are an obvious troll and i shouldn't bite.

The more bets you lay the more ev you lose on each bet win or lose and the further and further you fall behind loss wise as the number of selections increases.  There are a lot of shrewdies on this site so the more you talk the more silly you sound.  This isn't a normal betting site full of jokers.

 ;popcorn;  your turn Larry.

I have no idea how that tennis stuff was edited in,however if you look at TFT. Vegaslover's words from last nights discussion 100%

Enjoying your popcorn I see.

Pretty sure this part is what I posted last night, when discussing in play trades lst night. Quite why you have posted it here larry I have no idea!!

For what it's worth i'm with arby on this. My largest bet this year has been on a 1/6 shot that he put up a while ago.
Have just looked and nearly all my footie bets this year have been backing odds on shots, in a market where I know what the price should be and getting on the right side.

Good luck with your challenge against arby, you are gonna need it!

AGAIN. Only if you are getting better than the odds which is your opinion,so you clearly value your opinion on a correct price more than a huge percentage of others. You should be retired with your feet up now,its that easy.

I have no idea VEGAS.  Think i had old windows open in safari on phone and it copied in your quote.

What was the bet Vegas?

er, he could be, if he so wished

a little bit of advice (not that i need to fly a flag for him), listen and learn :-)

The margins bookies work to make it hard to make a living even when you KNOW the price is wrong.

The only reason for me to have a serious bet is if I believe a price is wrong , not whether I fancy a tennis player
to beat another , it's all price dependent.

And that's the beauty of betting , everyone has an opinion but it's translating that opinion into odds worth backing and Arboy has quite a good record in that department.

Now putting that into practice is the hard part because the bookies , like TFT have found out , do not like winning/break even
punters.

Arbboy is clearly very knowledgeable.  I'd be fairly surprised if you could find a regular reader of TfT who doesn't recognise this.

It feels almost like you are just doing the Internet equivalent of talking over him instead of listening.  He provided more than enough evidence why his 1/12 shot should have been way shorter, but there is no evidence you have even noticed.  So instead of thanks for the explanation, we get yah boo why have you not retired?  

I am not doubting his knowledge in specific areas,  I don't doubt that.

I have no idea on this one but can any of you tell me how
Much a bookie online would accept on a Portland bet at 1/12?

heads up for rolls larry?

my cheese and pickle v your ham and coleslaw

I hear a lot of 'bank job', 'max bet' words thrown around.

150k bank lets say, question for arbboy or any of you.

Some of you will follow arbboy in on a 1/12 banker, 6k win.  It goes wrong -6k.   Next bet comes up at 1/10 and arb makes it 1/25,with that bank what are you advising one of your 'followers' to stake(if you were advising) on the following bet?? 10k to win 1k?? 10k for the next 5 1/10 bets?  Just want to know your strategy for such a bet. Just a discussion,not wanting an argument. Risk reward is awful no matter what you think the price is and if it isn't possible to get much on at these odds on prices it is a long grind.

Hmmmm, now that really is 50/50,no edge at all.  What a tough decision.

Over 240 views,this is fantastic

Please receive as well as transmit. I am reading some of your posts and cringing a bit to be frank

its about staking to correct unit sizes within a bankroll

when someone says "bank job" or "max bet" it might be 3 or 5% of bankroll, no more than that

Amusingly enough, given the content of the thread, if Arb was allowed to bet whatever he wants, in whatever size, with say a caveat of one of 6 books offering the prices, and betting on tick, I would merrily back Arb at 1/33 over the course of a year.

Loving it, Blonde has a new pantomime villain

My strategy is the same as any other bet whether it is 1/100 or 100/1 just like any other successful long term winning gambler.  The bigger the difference in price between the price the bet is and the price i can get as a % the bigger the % of my bankroll i have on. I would imagine most bookmakers given the chance to lay a 500/1 shot at 12/1 would probably go quite deep into their till as they don't get that kind of edge very often.

No idea where 'bank jobs' comes from.  I have never used that phrase in my life.  I am done with the whole thing and would rather if you didn't comment on any more of my posts Larry as you have clearly proved you don't have a clue about the game.  Over and out.

Yes I am aware of that,150k bank 6k Portland falls within that number.

Yes a staking plan is needed but  the bets placed on the TFT thread are based on the price.  Evs shot lets go £100. 3/1 £20. 200/1 gilles simon lets just go £5.  All the different tipsters are just putting up a stake amount   Correct staking plan?

No winding up SIMON

I shouldn't even acknowledge this post from a guy who backs horses based off speed ratings in handicaps with less than 3k to most winning horses and who obviously thinks these owners make their money from prize funds   You should give up now and stop being so naive, you must be one of these punters who are in shock when a 33/1 winner goes in with form reading 7889PU9.   Pantomime logic indeed.

No idea where 'bank jobs' comes from.  I have never used that phrase in my life.  I am done with the whole thing and would rather if you didn't comment on any more of my posts Larry as you have clearly proved you don't have a clue about the game.  Over and out.

I may not work your way but it is naive to suggest I have no idea about this game,very foolish.

No problem,Won't comment on any of the threads,no problem at all.

This has nothing to do with what I are saying, get on with it

Say what aaron???

If you peruse our racing thread, you will see that Simon is a very shrewd and profitable horse punter. Horses for courses, so to speak, he does very well.

bloody hell can't get this outta my head

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUGNbkJmM-w

(http://media.giphy.com/media/hUgjwkNZarvl6/giphy.gif)

Good luck with TFT Mr T.  Over and out also.

You should read the whole thread, chief (some of us are that sad). There have been discussions about bet sizing from time to time, largely around Kelly and, as tikay/Fred has won a few quid, we've upped the bankroll.

There are three likely reasons why £5 on a 200/1 shot and £50 on at levels is more likely than the reverse:

1) The chances of the price being so far out in Kelly terms at 200/1 that it justifies a big bet are relatively small. It'd need to be a (for example) 20/1 shot to warrant a deep reach into the satchel. It's the percentage difference in the real and offer prices that matters and logically, an even money shot that should be 5/7 is a very juicy bet

2) Fred has some very sharp punters but it also has lots of recreational chaps and chappesses, who don't mind flinging the odd darts here and there but don't want to be responsible for losing people significant sums. The thread encourages people to gauge their own confidence in the merits of the bet and to report that. Over time, you get the idea of what hector's £25 means (clue: it involves a reversing Robert Wiseman dairy truck of money). Some people are more confident in suggesting £100 on a more marginal market and tikay and Tight End are good at judging bet sizes themselves, based on the info they are given.

3) The sad fact is Fred has been a victim of his own success. We rinsed the bookies early doors (everything from Cheltenham offers to betting on Madonna wearing a microphone in the super bowl) and paid the price: restricted accounts. Then we took them for a bit more and, lo and behold, closed accounts. Bookies have exposure limits and getting £50 on at even money is far easier than getting the same on at 200/1. With some, it's tuppence ha'penny on either, to be honest.

There is an awful lot of amazing stuff in those 6,000 pages: how odds are compiled, how to take advantage of bookies splitting the handle (on Fred, that is known as The Gravediggers Principle, after the Arkansas Gravediggers - long story - you'll see it when you come across it), how to look after your accounts, oh yes, and how to make money on literally anything.

Fred is a little old man, rocking in his chair, these days, recounting past glories to anyone who'll listen. I'd like to think there's life in the old dog yet.

Oh no you don't!

Listen here, Mr More Comebacks than Sinatra! That took ages to write on my 'phone. You'll jolly well read what I've written!

Thanks.

Never mind that Tal bloke, I hope you are cheering on The Arse?

And before anyone says it, no I don't have a second account..... ;)

I read it TAL.

I have noticed that Errol Flynn scored. Have obviously backed ars*nal to qualify just to make sure they don't.

Good man. You can go now if you like. That was it, really...

Or stick around.

:)

And good luck to your bills! Over and out.

I asked you not to comment on any of my posts not to stop posting. 

Actually quite difficult to do, as you comment on everyones posts!!!! ;D

I lolled

Out of all the people to read/listen to TAL is probably the worst. He once tried to get me to back all the numbers on an American roulette wheel

I was just thinking that while Arbboy is occupied Educating Larry he's not popping up in the LFC, MUFC, NUFC and Arsenal threads telling us we're all deluded.

Twas a bet on Stoke at 1/6 . current price 1/50 nuff sed

I know a man who may lay you this bet again!

Another deluded manure troll ::)

(Don't worry, I've got your back, arbboy)



We all going to start behaving now, then?

Hey I avoided messaging you on Sunday, or sending you a picture of the empty seats in the away end 5 minutes before the end!

Comical bet.  Back stoke at 1/6 at skybet 2 weeks ago to be top midlands side then they lose to their only rival WBA and after that game stoke at 1/50 with skybet for the same market even though the gap has closed by 3 points!  Only at skysweat!  You can't make it pay backing 1/6 shots though!

Who wants to lay 1/6 Stoke top midlands?  Please pass on his details!

Foster isn't a bad keeper ;D

Evening Carbboy, just stopping by before settling down to the nba. You must have got a truck load on at 1/6 in a specials market?? £6? 

Joking of course, they will take you on all day taking 1/20.   

FYP

You will shit yourself if portland lose 3 straight.

Also thunder still have their best player still on court,Westbrook is playing at a completely different level than durant is capable of with no real support.  Imo that is.  Look forward to seeing your next odds on bet,get on and I will see if I can give you some action.

He's going to give you some action

I can see what's going to happen

Comical indeed. Was 1/9 day before that game.

If Larry wants to lay 1/6 about this, plenty will want to get on.

How do you get a job as a loltrader at skysweat when your mind is so illogical?  The mind boogles!

are you a skysweat trader larry :) . reading through I honestly don't think larrys trolling I just think he hasn't grasped the maths of what arboy is saying.

arbboy is my current favourite poster on blonde.  sorry mantis.

Cos is gonna be furious.

Cos is falling down the list fast, he used to be out & about policing the internet, now what is he doing?  eating fancy food i can't name & grinding, such a disappointment, we used to be best internet friends...

Seriously whatever people think i really don't go out of my way to create chaos.  I just love this thread for the sheer amount of razor sharp pro punters who are/were on here.  I have made a lot of money from this thread and hopefully have given similar back to the regs.  It is the only reason i asked tighty to come back on blonde 2 years ago.  I am pretty old school though and have an ego and if someone wants to take me on verbally on gambling related activities i expect them to back it up with cash.  That is how i make a living after all.  Talk is cheap.  I don't suffer fools gladly and i really don't want people who think they are great who are not to be allowed to destroy TFT or any related products by talking total tosh so i will help to police it to a certain level.

I very much doubt i am anyone's fav poster outside of Mrs Bandit!

you had me at hello

Thread still going strong, splendid.

@arbboy.  I agree on the price being ridiculously big but I have a question, why arent't all the firms going 1/50,1/100?

I can't deny being devastated by this news.

Possibly but full strength you will be lucky.

22 posts til the staking thread, folks.

We have a 2nd larry challenge in two days!   ;popcorn;  Can we show consistency and move to a new thread please?

Gutted i didn't get the option to bet against him for real cash like you have Rinswun.  No idea how much of a mug he must think you are.  He called me a mug as i only back big odds on and you can't make it pay doing that yet he wouldn't put up his own cash for that challenge but seems happy to take you on with his own folding stuff.

They're already queuing around the block ;D

He has named his team(wild v any team from the east)

You didn't come to me with any bets

The guy posted a tip for this thread. One minute I am told this is a value seeking thread.  The 25/1 is a bad bet when the better option is available.

Larry seems to be adamant that he wants to take someone on

what are the odds on a grim, ArgueBoy?

What price larry is Blatch?  Nearly his 5 year anniversary?   Has anyone phoned the police?  Solid!

Portland up 11 early tonight on road Larry.  Would be hoovering up that 1/20 as i assume you missed the 1/12.  1/20 better bet now than the 1/12 the other day.  Maybe the weight of your cash can force the price down to close to the correct level.

both good mates of yours

I asked yesterday who blatch is. Nobody seemed keen to answer?

Flick 'blatch' into search, and it will likely bring his thread up, Larry.

It's a long one...

First of all I came on here to reply to this 25/1 bet.  Then I responded to this guy willing to bet me not the other way round.

Cheers.

I know they are way shorter than 1/12 1/16 whatever.  I find it hillarious that you think these bookies have held these prices because they are clueless,  on a clean account sky were allowing 8.4k portland £75 okc, both for the same liability. As you said they are a billion dollar business so why do they care about a few hundred quid here and there just to balance the book. So if they don't care about that why on earth would they be bothered about laying you 1/16 shots.  They will do that all day.  The funny thing about this is you will find better than true odds which is using your brain and then spunk it up the wall backing/laying greyhounds.  What a pro.

You do have followers,  calling you Joe Carroll from now on.

Save it,you have an edge on dogs (sigh)

Found one with 1 page full of betting selections/spreadsheets. Is that the one?

Portland 104 miami 108, you were getting a little excited with that 11 point lead. No thanks,leave the suicide bets to you.  Unlike you I don't throw words around like 'certainty' or 'good thing'. Sport has a funny way of biting you in the arse, I will stick to the inevitable peaks and troughs of sport and let you keep backing these 'good things'.  After all you are the pro.

It's only you on this forum who thinks argueboy has suicide bets

The rest of us would back him to the hills

Give it a rest

I will give it a rest when he does.

Well keep backing them, his bets combined with a whole bunch of speculative bets is a great recipe.  I was hoping for some big priced 'good things' on here, it seems as if 3% of the gambling worlds successful winners are all on here, is that what you are telling me Aaron?  If I stick around and follow the advice we will all be long term winners?  That would be great.  I am looking for some assurance that this isn't just some recreational forum where bets are being placed on every market possible.  It seems as if their is a need to be involved with all markets because a poster puts a strong enough opinion forward.

Give me some answers Aaron,if we stick with arbboys tips we will win long term? If so I am in.

Tal,will i be a long term winner following the tips on here?  100% confident?

@tal, what did you mean by 42 posts until staking?  I don't think I will last that long,I can sense the end of a short stay.

ArgueBoy's bets are different to everyone tastes, it doesn't mean that you need to criticise them at every available opportunity. I read his stuff & it's great to read, a real insight, but I will very likely never back anything be suggests, he talks complete sense, but his bets are simply not a betting style I take on

Your posts never make complete sense when opposing his view and you don't agree, time to move on. It's becoming a rather tedious read, but if you are to continue playing in the playground please keep it of TFT.

That is fine by me but he needed to hijack a conversation between myself and the guy posting the 25/1 bet.  I offered what was sound advice which it was if the aim is to provide tft with a better play on a posters bet.  No name calling or mocking the guy,just a more profitable way for the same amount risked.

I said this last time and posted 5 minutes later but I will leave the pros to it.  Probably best to just read the threads.

Must add,best thread on here 'hand analysis'

Good luck!

"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." just saying :)

If only there were some way of looking at the statistics of a healthy sample of bets placed on blondepoker...

Have a look at the first post on Tips for Tikay. The stats are there. A healthy profit over a substantial sample. Allow for some recreational or fun bets and the ROI is very impressive in the "betfair and restricted accounts era" in which we now live.

There aren't many people who make good money from sports betting these days. You're picking a fight with one. Doesn't mean he doesn't make mistakes, but your posts don't demonstrate the level of analysis and certainly don't demonstrate the depth of understanding that arbboy's posts consistently portray. Fella knows his onions.

It's great when someone comes along to challenge existing philosophies, because it gives us all a chance to reflect. The problem is, if the new guy is fundamentally resistant to the established methods and reasoning, it'll never do anything but cause conflict.

And here we are.

There are some really savvy mathmos who are members of blonde. Your arguments about not backing 1/10 shots (because once the price contracts beyond a certain point, it's basically subjective) would undoubtedly have amused or bemused the maths guys almost as much as your comment about it being harder to make money in Cheltenham than any other racing occasion will have made the horsey types guffaw.

This isn't another forum full of guys who quite fancy the six dog because they just saw it have a wee in the parade or who will back a football team because they've won their last three.

As for the peaks and troughs, they don't just appreciate that variance exists, they actually understand the maths behind it, allow for it and apply their knowledge to profitable effect.

You clearly have some sporting knowledge and a grasp of lots of the numbers, but some of your posts have given the impression of being dismissive, where you risk alienating people, rather than educating or, dare I say it, being educated yourself. Within that, you risk coming across as someone just looking to wind up others, which is a shame, because it's a fun forum full of good eggs.

Either reveal yourself to be Tony Bloom, be more receptive in your approach or look for a forum populated by cashout merchants who don't understand decimal odds, where you can be worshipped as a deity.

I reckon you could be fun if you let someone else play with the controller every now and then. :)

I like it ;)

Haha. I won't run away Tal before i read this. Just caught the last line, funny quote,never heard that one.

Did you type this from your phone again

Now that would be nice,revealing Tony Blooms bank statement :)

Point taken Tal,I do stand strong on some of the things I have posted.  I will admit I am a wind up merchant,I have found over time that the reactions from people speak volumes and I get an idea how to deal with that person in the future.   You can gage a lot from these tests ;), the short fused ones(no name mentioned) and the ones who are too serious.

I understand you want to keep the bickering off tft thread.  I won't post on there from now on.

7 posts plus 2 months and one week till the stake thread

Odds on a quick sale aren't looking good in fact argue boy might even be laying the bets

If Arb is as big a mug as Larry the Lobster thinks then he might just hover up all the stake?

Who is argue boy in this thread?  Surely he has been dethroned?

Lads your just rising to Larrys bait

No matter what you say he will try and find fault, hes just admitted that

Arb backs up his choices and quite frankly Larry a'int come out with anything constructive

Leave Larry alone dont give him the opportunity

Circles circles circles

Please don't say that, was starting to warm to you. Everyone loves a plucky underdog.

Honestly don't understand why anyone indulges.

POTY where Larry is concerned.
Time will all left Larry to himself

Larry.

There is absolutely no point in trying to prove Argueboy wrong. He has the numbers/maths down to a T, and is the King of extracting value from "done deals".

There is a lot to be learnt from his lessons, even if most of the people here don't actually follow him in on his 1-6, 1-20 doubles, it helps us all in our betting.

It also doesn't mean he is the King of betting, and every bet he recommends wins, because they don't, but you can be fairly sure they have the right maths behind them.

So if you have good spots, keep em coming, I for one am happy to listen, but if he says the maths is wrong, don't waste your breath.

Doesn't mean your bet can't win though! ;D

Given the Cavs are 3/1 tight on betfair to win the NBA and they are best priced 5/6 to win the East that makes them a 6/5 shot (4.0/1.83=2.2) on average to win the finals against a RANDOM western team.  Given the Spurs are the 2nd Fav in the West i would strongly suggest the Cavs should go off bigger than 6/5 in a finals series against the Spurs based on pretty strong ante post market prices now.

Not entirely sure how the Cavs are so certain to go off favs (never mind huge favs) in the finals against most of the Western Conf powerhouses when the vast majority (6) of the West conf teams will have home court advantage over the Cavs in the finals (play 4 games at home and 3 away) should the Cavs get there by way of a better regular season record (including the Spurs) as we stand.

I shouldn't really bite i know but trolls who can't add up/perform simple maths on ante post markets up really tilt me. Just thought i would correct Lazza and avoid loyal followers being sent the wrong way.  I won't comment on the other basic maths faux pas earlier in the post where a 4/1 4/5 double doesn't come to anywhere near 7/1 either.  (5x 1.8=9.0) or 8/1.  The correct price you needed for that calc was 1.6 (8/13) lazza not 1.8.

Keep pin sticking and trolling son.  Leave the real work to the pro's.  
 

You think spurs will go off favs against the cavs? No chance

£10 spurs 7/1 returns £80. £10 spurs conference 4/1 returns £50 onto 4/5 returns £90

So they go off favs slightly at 4/5 it is still better than 7/1

They will go off outsiders. Evens at best and £10 4/1 + evs = 9/1 shot for your money

Lol@ pros. 

last time lazza.  What happens the 45% of the time the Cavs don't make the finals?  What price are the Spurs then?  Your lol maths is quite comical!  

Lazza is basically saying 3/1 the Cavs is a huge price because they are already in the NBA finals (100% certain even though the market makes them 55% likely to win the East) and will be a fav against any team in the West even though the market makes them a 45% dog to be favs in the final.  So if you believe the lazza lol maths you are getting 3/1 about the Cavs when they should be odds on.  Alternatively you can work through logically the maths i put up based on rock solid ante post markets.  I will leave it up the followers to decide.

You suggest they should go off shorter. The lebron factor will kick in and cavs go off favs against any team but GSW.  Spurs are class side but they have a brutal series to even make the finals with older players. Dream on.

This was based on the cavs making it.

Stick to greyhounds as that is what a pro does,thinking draw bias isn't figured in. You are far from a pro.  I wouldn't touch either bet.  Outright bets in general are crap in these us sports. Back them series to series and you will get a bigger price also.  But then again you seem to want a bet in every market available under the sun thinking you can beat every book, dream world.

lollllllllllllllzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz but we are not betting the spurs to win the NBA BASED ON THEM PLAYING THE CAVS IN THE FINALS just the spurs to win the NBA.  If we were then i would agree with you 7/1 was a poor bet but 45% of the time they will not be playing the Cavs in the final.  If you think the Cavs make the final 80% of the time (that is a 1/4 shot in real money because i know your maths is poor) then just put a max bet on fred for the Cavs to win the East at 5/6.  Luckily we are already on at 7/4 from earlier in the year but 'there is no value in these markets is there lazza!!!' lolzzzzzzzzzzzzz

You hang yourself more and more every time you open your mouth.  You are so bad you must be levelling people here.  

You are basing this on these markets being spot on now yet you have mocked these traders all season for wrong prices. CAVS go off favs v spurs,you need to deal with that carbboy

Therefore following lolzlazza logic the Cavs should be a 6/4 poke for the NBA title but we can get 3/1.  I will help you out here lazza.  Now you can finally recommend a bet rather than trolling.  Oh but look we are already on the Cavs at 7/2 to win the nba and 7/4 to win the East but there is no value in these markets.

Look forward to your recommendation.

Haha. You are going off these prices up right now.  You are throwing up percentages which mean zip as these prices as they stand are not correct.  You think these prices are correct?? You are basing your case on these prices,once the series prices come out these prices will look stingy.  Do you reall invest your hard earned on outright nba markets like this?  Please say yes, PRO.

I am stunned you are using the conference and championship prices to come up with these silly assumptions.  They are never in line the whole season but now you are playing with these incorrect prices to make a point .WP PRO. 

Stop digging lolzlazza you are getting deeper and deeper into a hole.  If these prices are so wrong just put up the prices which are wrong for fred and we can all fill our boots.  I don't see many recommendations from you just trolling.

Forget How the conference and outright look against each other. 4/1 was available. Chances are it will be cavs and the spurs will be the dog. SIMPLE AS THAT.  Now you can go on all night about what price this team is right now but you have no idea what price spurs will be to win each series and because you don't know that don't put a price on the true conference/championship price will be.  All I know is cavs will be favs v spurs

Just to clarify for reference,what price do you make spurs v cavs?

Why don't you tell us for a change what price you make them?  We have yet to see your basic maths skills put to a test!  Maths and trolling don't go together too well i appreciate.  You make them favs so what price will they be and why?  Some maths lazza to back it up.  Put the pin in it's box for an hour and think outside of your level 1 box.

I did my maths for you on my first post.  Obviously went straight over your head.  It was 8 year old level probability.  Nothing too advanced.

I wouldn't touch these outright prices. Short single digit prices in a sport like this. Do me a favour.

I know you wouldn't lollazza but you wouldn't touch the 1/12 Portland who were a 1/500 shot and are weighed in 6 games early even though they lost 4 games on the bounce straight after i bet it and okc won 4 straight (you nearly had one of your 'great sporting shocks' but no the maths took over as usual.  What a cracking bet the 1/12 was.  Too short for a mug like you though who loves value!

My £2000/£24000 would pay the rent on your house for 4 months in Cheshire even though u can't tell us your name.  amazing how good you dodged Camel's 4 questions the other night.  You should be on ITV at 8pm for the leaders debate.

I assume you are laying these short single digit prices then if they are such bad value to bet?  Or just more nonsense coming from your mouth? 

any chance of some maths lazza?  This is a forum for winners not mugs.  You ruin such a great forum when you have to be put in your coffin routinely for proving how bad you are at adding up.  Even Blatch wasn't this bad at Maths. 

I feel like Bill Murray...

Tighty is going to put you both in a coffin (NAP)

I don't feel the need to play every market known to man like you. Obsessed with outright markets. Why would I lay them? You seem to think every outright selection goes smoothly from start to finish. I guarantee spurs will top 7/1 before the end of the season. A pro doesn't need a bet every minute of the day. You think it is all black and white this game, all your +ev rubbish, thinking every bet you place is some kind of value,that is really laughable. You keep telling me I haven't shown you calculation, I did,you just believe spurs go off favs and I believe cavs will.

If you have greyhound inside info then great but how can you call yourself a PRO when yo are going through the card at Hove to get your daily fix,PRO,really??  

Lollazza how do you bet who you are?

I bet 4/7 Solaris 6/4 Blatch.  The sheer hate for anything i post should make Blatch fav though tbh. 

why don't you answer camels questions and tell us who you are lollazza and what you do for a living so we can know a bit more about u?

4/1 + 4/5(spurs best possible price in your dreams v cavs) 8/1.  They will be odds against so 7/1 outright is crap.

You must live in a bubble. All outright bets go plain sailing from the off don't they

Spurs first round series. They go down which happens a lot, do you still have good 'VALUE'.  You take these stingy outright prices and convince yourself you know better than the market.

Can't take any PRO serious who advises a bet on T4 at 7/4 from swindon based on a split time lolol. How do you know this dog isn't ill?  Lol. You are nothing but a guesser but make out you are some pro.

What does it have to do with you?

What happens the other 45% of the times though lollazza when the Cavs don't get to the finals?  I keep asking this question but you lollazza brain doesn't seem to see the whole equation.  It is not tough Lazza! 

Come on lollazza admit you are Blatch and you still got the England rugby shirt and the fiesta 5 years on and mummy is finally paid off.

6/4 should be more like 4/6.

It has as much to do with me as what my 10 year career as a professional gambler and my chosen angles for making a living have to do with you.  Yet you seem to think you have licence to comment on these even though you claim to not know me.  You know more about my betting patterns than my betfair vip manager does.  Just admit you are Blatch.  I appreciate i ruined your life but come on its 5 years ago now.

I read a greyhound thread and that adds up to knowing your betting life haha.  Give over.  You make angles do you? Track times and draw bias which is known to all, do you class this as an angle?  Your advice on a greyhound bet is amateurish, the sort of advice Derek in Ladbrokes gives out whilst eating a packet of pork scratchings.  That is not an angle,it is guessing a dog will run to it's price and avoid every bump. Come on man.

We don't hear too much about any of ur angles though?  Or many of your bets?  Or any logic or maths to back them up just a lot of trolling?  At least Blatch tried to convince people he was a good judge and had contacts.  You just rely on keeping your pin sharp.

Which part of Cheshire do you live in lollazza in your undercover rented house because you have to remain so secret?  We should meet up for a beer or two.  I don't live far away.  Could you pick me up in your Fiesta so i can have a few beers whilst i listen to your angles?  Please wear the rugger shirt though for old times sake whilst we discuss how you paid back the 120 large your mum sold her house for to stop you being murdered.  Will be fun catching up.

I promise i won't tell Camel your real name.  Secret is safe with me.

You know all my angles. I am blatch remember. Nothing to tell.

Blatch had more angles than you.  He was a great con man.  Maybe that is why you have to remain under cover in your rented house in Cheshire and can't tell us who you really are.  All starting to add up now.

Why tell you.  I am being banned for life so you tell me. According to your source lol

Any tips for the dogs tonight?

Lay the dogs which are a shorter price than they should be.  Back the ones which are bigger than they should be.  Worked well for me for 10 years.  Simple game gambling lollazza if you can do basic maths.

Haha.  Never ending, you don't know correct prices.  You just think you do

Just been a luck box for 10 years then day in day out?  Hard to get as fat as me on fresh air son.  Lollazza who can't even add up never mind calculate prices.

lollazza you worked out yet u have to put in the % if the cavs don't make the final yet to the spurs price?  Or that still sailing over your head! One of the funniest posts ever.  So bad most will think you were levelling people but u were actually being serious.

Why do you need to calculate prices for such markets like nba.  You claim they are wrong half the season. All of a sudden they are correct? 

Spend your winning at jacamo then?

Fancy laying me £4k (8 months rent for your mythical rented cheshire secret house) at 7/1 on the spurs lolazza?  It is a 8/1 shot IF they play the cavs in the final.  You got the edge.  Let's ignore the 45% chance they dont play the cavs though as it makes your case look wrong.

Where do you get the 45% chance from??? Oh wait,today you are using the bookmakers prices,tomorrow they will be wrong and the day after they will be correct again,all depends on  how you feel/think.

I will use your price for Cavs winning the East lollazza if you tell me what price you make them?  Oh hold on the Cavs are already in the final because if the Spurs get to the final they WILL 100% play the spurs.  The more you talk the more stupid you look lollazza.   I get so many pm's from people saying 'please make this clown look even more stupid than he does'  'the more he talks the more stupid he looks' etc etc.  You doing a stella job as usual tonight lollazza.

You are picking and choosing which prices are correct/incorrect in every market available.   You value your opinion too much, why are you gambling still. 10 years and still backing 1/16 shots which you think they put up by error lol.  

What price do you make the cavs lollazza to win the East?  Just answer the question.  I know its tough and your pin is blunt and you can't add up but give it a go.

1/16 shot won doing handstands lollazza with 7 games to spare even though 8 games in a row went against us at the start.  Incredible value.  £24k to win £2k,  Four months rent for your mythical cheshire mansion just handed to me by 888.com.  Like shelling peas.  Imagine if you had £24k lollazza to actually steal £2k to pay your rent for 4 months.  What a life that would be for you.

My opinion makes me fat and arrogant because it is right year in year out lollazza.  Sorry to upset you stating facts.

You get pm's. Let them speak for themselves

You some kind of malcolm X. Does it make you feel special

Glorified arber.  I don't need to put a price on any team.  You have spurs favs against cavs in the finals.  What price?  You never answered?

As they say in the houses of parl 'i will refer you to the previous answer'.  Check out the first post.  I put the maths/calcs in there for the spurs price.  Still yet to see your price.  Just 'cavs will be favs because of the james factor' lolllllllllllllllllllllz  How big a fav?  1/2 1/10? 10/11?  Home court not matter which Spurs are big odds on to get over the Cavs?  So lolzzzzzzzz lollazza.  So level 1!

Give me the spurs price v cavs?? So we can all quote it if they make finals

Do you not think spurs price will be bigger if they have a tough conference finals? Compared to an easy finals. Cavs will be strong favs.  Not GUESSING a price,leave that to you to guess.  They won't be shorter than evs,not a chance

As they say in the houses of parl 'i will refer you to the previous answer'.  Check out the first post.

As they say in the houses of parl 'i will refer you to the previous answer'.  Check out the first post.

As they say in the houses of parl 'i will refer you to the previous answer'.  Check out the first post.

Ok so you didn't give a price either. Bigger than 6/5.  How much bigger??? You are demanding I give a price and you give me bigger than 6/5 lol. Spurs will be bigger than 6/5,happy. 

Here is another one for you to refer to. 100% guarantee Spurs will touch
10/1+ to win it within the first two series.

Cheers lollazza but as usual you don't understand maths.  The cavs are 45% to win the finals when they get there.  So the cavs are ( i will do all the steps for you because your maths are non existant please try and follow ) 100/45 =2.2 or 6/5.  Therefore in a two horse race the Spurs will be a 5/6 shot so both outcomes add up to 100%.  You still following the 8 year old maths?  Let me know?

You have spurs 5/6 or shorter I have cavs 5/6 or shorter.  

No i have the spurs at 5/6 if they play the Heat in the finals with home court just as i stated in my opening post.  Nothing has changed.  If they go off odds against i will be smashing into them.  If they go off 4/6 i will be laying them. Simple game llollazza.  Keep up son.  We are going to 9 year old maths soon.  When it gets tough for guessers like you.  You are pissing with sweat trying to keep up now in your renting cheshire lol mansion.

You are just basing this on the prices now yes?? So lets say the money starts to  pile on cavs overnight and they become a 55% fav,is that not possible?? As the series progresses the cavs put up sill numbers and the old players at the spurs look a bit flat,the opinion changes and the spurs drift?not possible?? You are basing this on todays prices not taking into account other possibilities. I don't disagree with the 45% you keep banging on about.

We are betting today lollazza not next week so we operate with todays facts.  Comical.

Cheshire lol mansion.  Cringe worthy how you put lol in sentences.  

The more you talk lollazza the more stupid you look.  You really do a great job of it.  Most people have to try hard to look stupid.  

When you go all in with aces in poker on the river do you still think you are an 82/18 fav like you were pre flop against kings even though things have changed and there is a king on the flop?

Haha.  This is the point. You are stating these facts today and not giving a single thought about what will happen over the course of a few 7 game series,opinions change,teams start to look tired,cavs win a 7 game series easily and spurs go the distance and you think the lol 45% will still be the same. Dream boy.  

What if Lebron breaks his leg?  Or is it just all negatives for spurs and all positives for cavs?   You use a crystal ball to calculate probabilities then llollazza makes more sense now. 

Comparing fixed odds of poker with sports betting lol lol lol

If he breaks his leg they are fucked.  You just assume they will be a 45% chance in a months time Just because they are now.  You must be fishing?

That is exactly what yo are doing. Classing them as a 45% chance now and assuming they will be next month lol. Lol pro

oh lollazza the more you type the better you get.  Either the most brain dead punter in the world or the biggest leveller.  10/11 each of two.

Does your crystal ball tell you they will be a 45% chance in the finals?  If they rip through the east they will still be 45%

Lol@ you will pile in at 6/5.  

would pay cash to know what posh alex is thinking reading this!  They didn't have many like this in your probability classes at private school did they?

Why do you need to know what posh alex is thinking? Why does that matter to you so much?

Reply to him posh alex. Feed him what he needs LOL

off to the pub lollazza to feed myself some stella.  Speak soon.  basicmaths.net will help you with your issues.

Keep guessing future prices.  If you had any clue about future series prices you wouldn't even advise any bet on outright NBA but you do as you would realise backing them series to series plus finals would bag you more LOL

This thread is amazing.  Keep firing chaps!

You not leaving me a greyhound tip LOL. ' t4 looks good,it has great speed round the bend but don't tell others,this is inside info plastered all over the racing post' LOL

trade king, is that you?

Enjoy the pub. You sound drunk before you get even start

Quote from arb last Thursday. ' I am backing all the draws in the darts because I think it looks a close looking set of matches' LOL.  Pleaseeee explain what kind of angle this was??? Without avoiding the question.  Were they not all 7-3 7-2, really close. I see what you mean,you aren't a LOL Guesser.  A maths specialist to a lol lets back all draws on the basis I think it is a close looking card,how on earth can you say what is and isn't a close looking card. Holy crap,I want this one answering.  I class this as the same as one of my nanas tips, ' I am backing red rum as I like the jockey silks'

right now

first i moved it off tft, then we have let it run while the debate was on

are you two going to pack it in and ignore each other from this point on, or do you want to carry on with the drama?

the latter isn't going to be received wel by the moderators, unsurprisingly

so we are locking this for now

when it reopens when all the steam has come out of your ears, its your choice whether to continue or not.