blonde poker forum

Ice-cream itt.

I did a 5 team acca over the weekend premier games and the first 4 legs are home and hosed (chelsea, manure, arse and sunderland). Stake £10. Pays 27/1.

The fifth leg is tonight where i have backed Villa to beat QPR. I am a little worried about it due to QPR's recent away win and performance on Saturday. What is my best line here?

1. Let it ride
2. Lay Villa on Betfair
3. Back the draw and back Qpr at best price with a standard bookie.

If 2 or 3, what should i stake?
Ideally i would like to leave most profit coming from a villa win.

Advice and flaming needed and expected respectively.

P.s. I have just ordered a new odyssey works two ball fang putter with super stroker grip which will cost me £149. It would be nice to have that paid for by this bet, espcially as Speith choked in the Shell Open for twice that! #wanker.

I was quite prepared to help until your hashtag.

How very dare you Sir! :redcard:

1

Why did you put them in the acca?

Isn't this exactly the result you were hoping for (that all the others would win, rolling onto Villa tonight)?

Has anything changed to alter your view on the price?

If you aren't going to let it ride, make sure in your future accas you don't have one game that starts after all the others if you're going to get the cashout/layoff jitters.

I included this game so i could take a view on their form over the weekend to see if anything changed and also as i thought villa were a great price at the time.  i actually expected the villa price to shorten further and the qpr price to lengthen so chucked them in there and then. The opposite has happened and villa have lengthened slightly and qpr have shortened.

I didnt expect QPR to go mental away from home in their last game. That is what has changed. I am worried they have found some form and can actually do something other than lose away from home.

I am tempted to save a little but not sure if it is best to lay villa or back the other two selections.

Option 4 all day long.  Start another acca with Villa as the first leg.  ;scarymoment;

Lets be honest,you never expected to make the final leg.  Pay for the putter. 

Tal has asked the popular questions but Junior is right, things have changed.

I think QPR will get something, option 3 for me.

Is the Villa price the same as it was on Saturday morning, then? Have the bookies not noticed QPR won?

I actually think West Brom played better than their result and QPR were flattered by some excellent goals, which had killed the result off by half time. Could have been any score on either side.

I would prefer to back Villa again if they've drifted at all.

Be a proper punter. Press!

I tend to find I get more annoyed of I save and it wins than I do if I don't save and it loses.

What price were villa in the Acca when placed?

Villa have shortened in places but still largely available still at the same 23/20 i backed them at.

I think you could lock in about £115-£120 backing draw and QPR. Laying villa on betfair with commission might be a tad better. Can't check that but sure someone can.

With 23/10 draw and 13/5 QPR I make it £85 on draw and £78 on QPR for an even £117.

Its not really a big shout to say a team played better than suggested by a 4-1 home defeat vs second bottom in the league.

I just think QPR have under performed this season more so than Villa and they have a slightly stronger first XI, I'd have the prices at more like 5/4 & 5/2.

Actually 5/2 and 29/10 available. £80 and £72 to lock £128.

Thanks. I am ponderous.

Lock in £120 or let it ride for £280.

I want to back villa tonight so i will have £120 to win £160 if you junior if you want to offer it.  Let me know via pm.  Save you the hassle of placing 2 different bets with two different firms at odd amounts.

Thanks Mark, I will let you know by 7pm if its on. I want to see team news first but i am pretty sure i will just let it ride.

Big balls and all that.

Spam warning


I PM'd Junior about this as I was in the process of writing an article about Matchbook's commissions, which are pretty good (1.15%) for this type of situation when they are liquid, which they are for this match.

http://www.sportspreadsheet.com/matchbook.html