blonde poker forum

Selling 30% at 1.0833 so 10%= £325

Minimum 2.5% = £81.25

The last one of these was incredibly good value, much to my surprise so I'm looking forward to playing this. I think it'll be tougher than the sky one but still good value with a nice 150k gte. I'm 3/3 at Dtd this year, let's keep the run going...

It's on Tuesday.

Will take 5. 

Cheers

2.5% pls Alex, will need bank deets. GL.

2.5% please Mr Alex. 

10 please. fb how you want it

Booked guys  thanks, 7.5 left.

Usual bank pls, omm - will pm

Sold out.

Paid £81.25 by Bank Transfer.

4 from 4, please.

I railed you in the UKPC one, & you seemed very comfy, & looked to be enjoying it.

More of the same.

Will be up from tonight mate so assume "earth pounds" are ok?

Recd from Doobs, Picken and Tikay thanks guys. Cash is good Eso. You coming to rail the footy tomorrow?

Omm I've pmed bank details.

Caeful you don't injure yourself at the football, Alex.

I heard one young gun even managed to injure himself playing cricket. Who'd have thought?

I was first on the team sheet for team Essex/London as GK (in before any height gags as 5 a side goals are perfect for my height) but then I realised I was due to be playing golf with a Ralph so am wooping his backside at that instead.

See you later

2.5 pls!

Gowan then, booked. Usual details Nick.

 ;D :)up

Made a balls up here boys. Was unreliably informed it was £3k straight but just bought in and it was £3200.

So rather than getting ppl to send odd change extra I'll just scale your percentage accordingly.

So 10% is actually 9.37%
5% is actually 4.69%
2.5% is actually 2.34%

Sorry about that. Blame Mitch.

so you can free up an extra 2.5 for me?

Already freed up extra for Nick mate sorry. He's a regular buyer you see ;)

We're off. Starting table seems about avg compared to the field. 25k.

Made incorrect hero call vs Ian Simpson for big pot. Pretty happy with it though, so hard for him to have it.

9k 100/200/25 good table now.

Ian Simpson made incorrect hero call vs me for big pot. He's pretty happy with it though, so hard for me to have it.

25k 150/300

Incred.

Keep it up.

Out im afraid. Will write up hand later. Really close.

Is Ian Simpson happy?

Np :)

Good rubdown mate, well done.

I jumped straight in the satellite after busting and that went on pretty late (thin) and am in the main now. Will do a TR as soon as I get an hour free to do it justice ok guys.

OK so two hands I think are really interesting / close and I may've gone the wrong way both times so I thought I'd go through them in detail, both for you guys to see where it all went wrong, and for my own piece of mind to learn/improve.

Hand 1: Hijack raises to 350 at 75/150. I call BTN with 3h 3c, Ian Simpson calls BB.

7s 7h 2s Ian checks, hijack checks, I bet 525, Ian raises to 1750, hijack folds, I call.

4d Ian bets 3100, I call.

Js Ian bets 9800, I call, Ian had 7c 4c.

OK. Seems pretty bad right?!

So my thoughts on the flop were that Ian is full of shit a lot of the time here. Likes to just represent whatever comes on the board. Just think he's frequencies are way out of whack and since he's defending the bb here probably 85%, the combos of pure bluffs vastly outweigh the 7x and 22. Yes, I'm guessing down the streets, yes he'll still have 25% with even the 86o types of hands, I was happy to call the flop really. I've got two outs to his stack if he does have it, too.

Gotta call this turn for sure if my flop logic is sound.

The river is really interesting. He bets 9800 into 10825. So I need around 32% to call. So let's doing some combinatorics.

Value: With this sizing I can say with around 80% certainty that he doesn't have a flush, and 90-95% certainty that he has a bare 7. I'm also ruling out any sort of 1 (technically 2) pair hand better than mine.

So that leaves full houses. 22 - 6 combos, 74s, 3 combos, J7s 3 combos, 72s 3 combos. I'd say he'd very likely play J7 and 74 for this, and probably 22, but not that likely to have 72s, so in total i'll give him 5+3+3+1 = 12 combos. Plus the odd flush and 7x that I discounted heavily above. Let's give him 3 of those. So 15 total.

So to make a breakeven call I need to find 7 combos of bluffs.

Bluffs

Vs most people you have to assume 0 total airballs here, some sort of backdoor equity or blockers, but Ian is the most likely person in that hiroller field to have a Q9o sort of hand here. Those who've played with him before can back this up. He puts you in very tough spots and it's hard to ever put him on a hand. So counting his bluff combos is more or less impossible.

But I really don't think it'll be hard to find 7 bluffs combos. Even if you rule out complete airballs like Q9o, and just count his Aspades x hands, or Ks x hands, there's gonna be enough.

Aspades x combos, I'd say defends 100%, 3betting maybe AJ+ or AQ+. Let's count the Aspades 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, T combos = 2+4+4+4+4+4 = 22 combos. And let's say he chooses to take this line with these hands 20% of the time. that's 4.4combos.

Ks x combos, defending maybe just K9, KT, KJ, KQ, we've ruled out KJ so that's 12 combos. Less likely to bluff with these (though maybe not as Ax works as a call better than Kx so might be calling Ax on the flop and raising Kx), either way, it's unlikely but let's say this counts as another 1 combo, so that's 5.4 combos.

So we need 1.6 combos from his Qs Tx sort of hands, hands like 89 with backdoor equity, or even just pure airballs. I think there'd be enough but it's very hazy.

Analyse like this is so open to tweaking the numbers to suit an agenda. So I won't go any further, and don't think there's any point. It's so hard to say how often he's gonna choose to take this line with those bluffs, maybe way less. But then it could be way more, he's the type of player that'll just decide to bluff this board with whatever cards he has, whatever the runout. I think it's really a really marginal hero call.

My thoughts at the time were basically, he's got a full house or nothing here, not many combos of fullhouses on this board, it's Ian Simpson, I call.

And what's written above is what my brain was doing behind the scenes to produce this conclusion!

Hand two on the way. Need a biscuit after all that. Get me those Golden Crunches.

CO raises 1k at 200/400/50, I 3bet Ahrt Jh from the BTN 2600, BB is a recreational player with unknown tendencies, 4bets to 6000. CO folds.

I have 19500. I thought he was really strong here, but he'd been frustrated at a couple of my 3bets in the same or similar spots and folded before, so I thought there was a chance he was full of it.

I called 3400 more, getting 3:1, to make a pot of 14.6k. Maybe this is a fold. Hard to fold AJs ip getting 3:1 but the spr of 1 is really tricky. Just gonna have to go broke on A and J high flops everytime. Not sure about this.

Flop is a Ts 9d 8s and he sets me allin for 16k

I need 34% to call here. I can't get any sort of equilab to work on my mac, so I ran loads of simulations individually and either had at worst 25% (vs JJ) or up to 40% (KK, AK, AQ) or somewhere in between. I block JJ which is the worst case scenario, and maybe I can't rule out a hand like JT that also has me in very bad shape, but in that case I'd have to put in hands like KQ and KJ that I have in very bad shape, so I think those two even out. Like I said about pre, I thought he was pretty nutted so thought he mainly had JJ-AA, AQ-AK.

So in my head I estimated that I was getting pretty much bang on the odds to call. In a normal tournament I would fold, but this field was seriously tough, so I decided to take the gamble and it didn't work out this time. He had AKo no spade and held.

In hindsight it was a bad tournament to play. I'd estimate out of the field of 45 unique players, there was 5 bad players, between 5-10 bad regs or good recreational players, and 30-35 good or very good players. Not really enough value to beat the rake, and for you guys the markup as well (especially when I'm probably in the bottom half of those 30-35 very good players).

But the last one I sold at no markup and it was very good value indeed, with those ratios more like half and half. I guess pokerstars will always attract a much higher calibre of player.

Anyway, that's enough from me. Thank for the investment as always.