blonde poker forum

There hasn't been a new hand on here for a while so I thought I'd throw this one out.

Villain is a good reg. I guess my hand looks like AK/AQ a ton, with or without a spade. If I had AK or AQ I would fold to river raise if I played it like this. I expected his floats and flushes to bet turn, sets/2p to likely raise flop (and there aren't any 2pairs really as he's unlikely to peel A8sooted. A3soots is more likely but there is only one combo of that. A river raise from him with that seems thin also).

It is just so hard for him to be bluffing here. I am also unlikely to be bluffing, however. I guess it looks like the nuts KQss a decent amount of the time for him? Anyways I tanked right down and figured I needed to win approx 22% of the time...

***** 888poker Hand History for Game 743264401 *****
$4,000/$8,000 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** 04 05 2015 04:01:25
Tournament #68193479 $82 + $8 - Table #27 9 Max (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: pokerson1362 ( $60,907 )
Seat 4: aggr0vated ( $312,774 )
Seat 5: FakinLuup ( $356,627 )
Seat 6: ForeverPunk ( $351,635 )
Seat 7: amaze1 ( $112,937 )
Seat 9: tangosalsa66 ( $495,686 )
Seat 10: me ( $357,621 )
amaze1 posts ante [$1,000]
aggr0vated posts ante [$1,000]
FakinLuup posts ante [$1,000]
ForeverPunk posts ante [$1,000]
tangosalsa66 posts ante [$1,000]
pokerson1362 posts ante [$1,000]
me posts ante [$1,000]
amaze1 posts small blind [$4,000]
tangosalsa66 posts big blind [$8,000]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to me [ 3h, 3s ]
me raises [$16,000]
pokerson1362 folds
aggr0vated calls [$16,000]
FakinLuup folds
ForeverPunk folds
amaze1 folds
tangosalsa66 folds
** Dealing flop ** [ 8s,  Aspades, 3c ]
me bets [$23,456]
aggr0vated calls [$23,456]
** Dealing turn ** [ 4s ]
me checks
aggr0vated checks
** Dealing river ** [ 9c ]
me bets [$58,755]
aggr0vated raises [$135,000]
me

I think i'd fold.

It's really interesting his check back on the Turn.

Pretty much we have no flushes here, I don't think. Unless specifically we know the player is aggro and is unlikely to be able to call but will bet this turn card a high % of the time, but that's a really specific read.

Again would expect him to be betting the turn with all Flushes/ Ks x hands, not that he has many, if any, Ks x hands.

The raise on the river to an extent does look a bit FOS given the turn action. But the vast majority of players wouldn't ever be bluffing here, especially given I can't see him having only the K of spades here in his hand.

Ths sizing is also a bit concerning, looks like he's wanting a call.

Overall, while his raise looks a bit suspicious (why did they not bet turned flush) but with sizing the fact it's an unlikely bluff I feel he prob does have a flush here.

Really interesting hand.