blonde poker forum

(http://i.imgur.com/xIuw3vd.png)

Villain is a reg. Not a particularly strong reg, but an okay thinking player.

Here are his stats:

(http://i.imgur.com/zUCtDdy.png)


VP/PFR/AF
CB/FCB/ST/FST
3B/F3B/4B(range)/F4B


Preflop

Raising QQ UTG is pretty standard so I make it 3x.

Once he just calls we can eliminate the monster pre flop holdings AA/KK/AK sometimes AQ and JJ and we block AQ.

Flop

I think a lot of the time we are going to be check calling on this flop. Protects our check calling range and also for pot control.

So we decide to check call.


Turn

When the Jd hits I feel he's going to continue a tonne now with a lot of draws that we're beating, especially after the flop check. We can have weak aces or a hand exactly like we have... QQ/JJ/TT. We obviously re raise with JJ, but I think he can try to exploit our range a tonne and continue with holdings we are beating. So we opt for another call.

River

I check and he shoves. I just think this is ALWAYS a bluff. The hand makes no sense for it to be for value. So I call.

Reasons I think its a bluff;

AK - Probably doesnt shove and 3bets pre.

AQ - We block and also doesn't shove often.

AJ/55/99/Jx - Once we check flop, our range never looks strong and its not usually a hand we can call vs three barrels, so wouldn't villain go for a value size that we can possibly call with Ax/KK/QQ or other hands villains beating?

It just smells like a bluff when villain shoves here and I'm pretty confident of calling this river off.


What are your guys thoughts on thought process and the way the hand was played?

Cheers

Abz

Seems like you nailed it with the reasons behind this being a bluff. 78suited is also a somewhat likely bluff for him.
And as you mentioned, his river sizing doesn't look like he wants to be called- making J9/99/55/AJ less likely.
The only comment that I disagree with is that "this is always a bluff". Some players will just bet the most they can with their nutted hands and ignore what your hand could be.
Other than that, nice call, well played.

Fold the turn and with general player pool tendencies at that level fold the river. If he bets a normal size  otr, you fold right? You have a read you felt it was a bluff given the over bet/ board texture and went with the read which you were correct about.

Readless at any micro stakes level turn is possibly a fold, river definitely is imo. Think your range looks a lot like Ax here, and there are very very few micro stakes players who bluff anywhere near enough rivers to make calling with a bluff catcher profitable. Might be worth filtering your HEM for times you've called a river bet/raise to see for yourself, this is the biggest leak in most micro stakes cash players imo.

I'd probably call the turn as i do find I induce a fair bit when i take these sort of lines. However river has to be a fold, our hand just isn't good enough and there's enough he can have. If he's bluffing wp, but calling too much on rivers in micros is as Rexas said a definite leak.

it's very interesting that he picks THIS hand to go off with

Few things I would note on this guy in game; firstly the river jam, I'd be keenly looking out for more river overbets from him, you say in your analysis that he wouldn't shove with AK (AK being a slam dunk VB otr) but he bluffed like that so perhaps he would, it's very key info for you because if you're correct and he won't use that size for mediocre value (not saying AK isn't an easy VB but it is possible to be beaten) then you had a very bluff catch on the river, if he would then this becomes VERY marginal. You need to be watching this guy OTR in future pots (with or without you in the hand) and taking notes - these notes can be the difference between very good and very bad plays.

If you have river Ag.Frq for him that might be a good one to look at, try get a picture built of what this guy is about.

Also I'd be looking at his flop c-bet tendencies, its a pretty comfortable hand to check back is this one so his decision to bet it, when he has some equity and very very rarely gets called by anything better, although he can get some 2x overcard hands to fold, is one I'd wanna look at more. Your 58% cb is in red which i guess makes it high, is that high for MS NL? Either way it's not his broad cbet stat I'd wanna look too much at it's his bet vs missed Cbet stat, as my instinct is that it will be crazy too high, and there's a good adjustment you can make vs a player like this.

Not overly high, doesn't wanna go up much but obvs over this sample it's not necessarily a true reflection of his tendencies. Should really be lower at micro stakes nl because of the whole make good hand bet good hand make bad hand fold bad hand mantra but yh this is still possibly ok depending on what he checks. From this hand I'd suggest it probably isn't ok :p Also I doubt this guy is a winner, anyone who tries to make other people fold pairs at this level has a lot of thinking to do :p

call, call, fold. Villain has played this the worst way possible and you've just caught him completely losing his mind. Tag him and move on

villain played his hand pretty well, he blocks a set and is the more likely to have a jack

Would say that most of heroes range is going to be made up of bluff catchers by the river, especially since it counterfeits villains potential 2 pairs and we block a one of the sets. Don't like his turn bet very much and the flop bet is a little meh but probs fine. Once he's got to the river jamming would be cool vs stronger player pools than at the micro stakes, but because at this level people rarely fold pairs I'd be very surprised if this guy was a winner, it's a.pretty basic micro stakes lesson to not do this imo.

In these spots being a good guesser is way more important that ranges yadayadah. OP guessed well.

Certainly wasn't a banker

Constructing your flop cbet range like this makes little to no sense

So basically the plan is to bet 9x in this spot with the sole intention of triple barreling it as a bluff?

I think the play is fine, but I think he needs to be fairly polarised on the river to make an over-bet successful, so needs to not be betting to weak on the flop, if like you say he's going to have QJ and JT then I guess that also means he has KQ/QT as well as all 9x which given his value range is basically 99/55/AJ - which is questionable to bet the flop imo, means way too many bluffs. Unless the strategy is to give up betting KQ and QT ott but given how you don't have so much FE on the flop that seems bad too.

Just check imo, fold unimproved turns.