Title: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on January 31, 2006, 09:38:28 PM I have given a lot of thought about devising a system for MTTs and STTs based on moving all in pre flop or folding.
I then read Sklansky's 'System', and made some refinements to this, based on the amount of BBs and your position on the table. I then, tonight, using 'my system', played 4x45 player Multi Table STTs on Poker Stars, and came 10th, 9th, 9th and 1st. When I was heads up, I refined the system further moving in with Harrington's top 30% of hands when less than or equal to 15 BBs, or his top 20% of hands when greater than 15BBs. The point is, could this system work to produce a meaningful long term profit? I am certainly going to try this further, and probably make some more refinements to it. I also wonder if it could work in live poker as well. You might get a few dodgy looks and comments though... :D Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: thetank on January 31, 2006, 10:02:10 PM The point is, could this system work to produce a meaningful long term profit? I hope so :D http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=5334.0 Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on January 31, 2006, 10:11:12 PM The point is, could this system work to produce a meaningful long term profit? I hope so :D http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=5334.0 You seem to be doing OK as it is Tank!! If the system worked, you could certainly play more STTs at the same time as you are basically playing them on auto pilot. Has anyone else ever experimented with this, and if so with what success? Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: fergus8 on January 31, 2006, 10:21:04 PM i went allin everyhand in a 5 dollar multi on crypto-18 players- i won. it was so funny the whole table tilted out of thier nuts. highlight was beating kk with 26 off on the bubble.
Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on January 31, 2006, 10:28:09 PM Haha that is good. The system is actually very sensible but yeah, it can be annoying for other players, and hence call with inferior hands.
Ie some players cant let go of their hands they have limped in with, and call with hands like Q8 suited. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: SKIPPYSKIP on January 31, 2006, 10:34:35 PM Vamps I once played won a 3K crypto comp after Xmas with 474 players on this stragety for the first hour, I was dealth AA KK AK QQ on numerous occasions and also played AQ AJ like this, by the first break I was chip leader my quite a way, but I feel luck was a great factor as I never run into a flush or trips and was called every time.
Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on January 31, 2006, 10:38:54 PM Vamps I once played won a 3K crypto comp after Xmas with 474 players on this stragety for the first hour, I was dealth AA KK AK QQ on numerous occasions and also played AQ AJ like this, by the first break I was chip leader my quite a way, but I feel luck was a great factor as I never run into a flush or trips and was called every time. Yeah, when you get the top 5 hands you definitely want a caller so you can hopefully double up off them. With the AQ AJ hands I dont really want a caller. I found it doing this puts people under pressure as they can't play their marginal hands like they would want to. Heads up it was a dream using Harrington's hands but moving all in with them, the guy was dumbfounded and kept folding his SB to me! Skippy, did you ever play like this again? If I had your success with it I certainly would have! Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: thetank on January 31, 2006, 10:43:51 PM i went allin everyhand in a 5 dollar multi on crypto-18 players- i won. it was so funny the whole table tilted out of thier nuts. highlight was beating kk with 26 off on the bubble. This is not fergus's normal game. Usually he only plays the top 115 premium hands. :D Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: SKIPPYSKIP on January 31, 2006, 10:44:23 PM I did in a Deauville qualifier which I came 6th it was won by Paul Parker after i had 50% chips at final table. Nemesis witnessed this and he said that Im ultra aggressive.
I then read Harrington book Vol 1 and the following week I won £10 and £20 crypto buy in that was the start of January. Since then I have been out of form can't win anything, been outdrawn a few times, but dont know where ive gone wrong didn't seem to have that aggressive streak I had before. Help lol? Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: Graham C on January 31, 2006, 10:48:40 PM I'm going to try it now on a £1 crypto stt
Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on January 31, 2006, 10:53:24 PM Ok let me know the results!
Just played a $1 45 player game on Stars and to make a difference and to see what people's calling requirements are, I moved all in on every hand. First hand UTG I moved in with JT off and was called by AQ. I spiked a ten and doubled up. Surely there are better spots to get your money in with AQ here lol! Next hand 5 limpers I move in with 72d and was called by 66 and 77 who made an appalling call lol last to act and he flopped a full house. Another player busted and I am back to starting stack. Next hand deja vu and I move in with 37o and get called by another guy who can't lay down AQ!!! We both miss and I am down to the felt. I tripled up with K3 next hand before going out with 85 v 66, KJ and K5!!! I need to be a bit braver before doing this on a bigger comp though! In all seriousness, if anyone wants to look at my system or make refinements to it etc, please pm me. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: Graham C on January 31, 2006, 10:56:31 PM Actually, this is making me pretty nervous :D
I passed on my blinds (Im in seat 4) early on but went all in after that and cleaned up - no callers. Are there guidelines as to which hands to go with or just what I feel like? Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: thetank on January 31, 2006, 10:56:50 PM I think we're forgetting the "or fold" part of this post :D
Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on January 31, 2006, 10:58:42 PM Actually, this is making me pretty nervous :D I passed on my blinds (Im in seat 4) early on but went all in after that and cleaned up - no callers. Are there guidelines as to which hands to go with or just what I feel like? Yeah, PM me if you want my actual system. Basically AA or KK only level 1 in any position, with AK and QQ in late pos. It then goes down to like any ace or J9 later on when the blinds are a high proportion of your stack etc... Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: Graham C on January 31, 2006, 10:59:30 PM lol
I've folding a lot, I've only played 1 hand so far. Going for hand number 2 soon though, I can feel it coming. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: thetank on January 31, 2006, 10:59:59 PM Are there guidelines as to which hands to go with or just what I feel like? Early on AA, KK, QQ, AK. Blinds aren't worth it with any 'owt else. Later on, whatever looks pretty. Good luck :)up Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: SKIPPYSKIP on January 31, 2006, 11:00:07 PM Agree wilth Silo, in the 3K i played i was so fair in front i was calling everyone and outdrawing them
Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on January 31, 2006, 11:00:59 PM I think we're forgetting the "or fold" part of this post :D lol tank, In all seriousness I am taking this pretty seriously although remain unconvinced of its potential. It certainly livens up the winter evenings! In the early levels i am folding like 95%+ of hands, although moving in with maybe 15-20% later on. I am keeping detailed notes of hands I do move in on, and get called with, so I can make potential changes if necessary. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: Graham C on January 31, 2006, 11:07:31 PM passing on KQ was a wierd feeling, but great watching the flop miss it.
Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on January 31, 2006, 11:09:40 PM passing on KQ was a wierd feeling, but great watching the flop miss it. Lol, try passing JJ, QQ, AK early pos in Level 1!!! Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: thetank on January 31, 2006, 11:12:06 PM If one is embarking on this strategy, I think it's less about the hands and more about the situations.
I am keeping detailed notes of hands I do move in on, and get called with, so I can make potential changes if necessary. You'll need to be at this a fair while for these notes to have any significance. Happy huntings. :D I spoke to some nutter (I mean that in a good way) who is currently trying something similar in cash games. He'll limp in with connecting cards, suited cards and small/middle pairs. He'll go all-in if he has any kind of draw on the flop or a made hand of two pair or better. As he goes all-in on all his gutshot draws, it drives the table mad and he gets paid off on most of his sets. He claims to be doing quite well so far. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: thetank on January 31, 2006, 11:15:46 PM passing on KQ was a wierd feeling, but great watching the flop miss it. Looks like you might learn something from this exercise Silo. KQ is pisch. Heard someone call it the Anna Kournikova the other day, looks dead pretty but it wins fek all. You should consider passing it in a normal game when the blinds are small, especially out of position. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: Dewi_cool on January 31, 2006, 11:20:52 PM consider passing are you sure Tank ;)
Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on January 31, 2006, 11:29:01 PM If one is embarking on this strategy, I think it's less about the hands and more about the situations. I am keeping detailed notes of hands I do move in on, and get called with, so I can make potential changes if necessary. You'll need to be at this a fair while for these notes to have any significance. Happy huntings. :D I spoke to some nutter (I mean that in a good way) who is currently trying something similar in cash games. He'll limp in with connecting cards, suited cards and small/middle pairs. He'll go all-in if he has any kind of draw on the flop or a made hand of two pair or better. As he goes all-in on all his gutshot draws, it drives the table mad and he gets paid off on most of his sets. He claims to be doing quite well so far. This is certainly something else to consider. I have read this piece in Phil Gordon's 'Little Green Book', which by coincidence is an excellent poker book. This is on a guy who he simple calls 'Biggest Online Winner'. Apparently there is a guy who absolutely destroys $25/$50 NL cash games online. Gordon says he has played with him and watched him for hundreds of hours. According to Gordon, he 'not only saps the chips, but the very spirit from the rocks in the game.' Gordon goes on to say that according to game theory, his style is unbeatable, and the basic philosophy of this style is to get in the pot cheaply, massively overbet premium draws, massively overbet the nuts or best hand (see where we are going!). He then gives a statistical example where he moves all in with various hands against a guy who has top pair, top kicker and his EV of winning various confrontations. Phil Gordon also mentions that after he moves in on an opponent who calls with the best hand and gets outdrawn, he sends them onto a massive tilt which makes matters worse!!! He also says that BOW picks up lots of pots he is not entitled to win based on the strength of his hand. Ie if you move in for $5k to win a $100 pot, how strong does your hand have to be to call the 5k!!! Apparently his drawbacks are that he has very high variance, and the only way of combatting this strategy is to get as much money in the pot pre flop as possible. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: Graham C on January 31, 2006, 11:32:43 PM You are right Tank, I should. I actually sort of like this stratagy for the folding side. I need to fold more marginal hands :)
I was getting concerned with my lack of chips (720) but an A J and everyone calling for 100 made my next all in easy - 1 caller who only had 250 chips left and I won the hand with a pair of aces. Just lost big time, all in with JJ, caller with K something and he got a flush when 4 hearts hit :( Still in with 248 chips Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: Graham C on January 31, 2006, 11:34:56 PM Out, All in with AJs, caller with 3 4 os, hits two 3's on the flop :D
Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on January 31, 2006, 11:36:29 PM Yeah, you do need to try to double up in first 3-4 levels, if not you can get short. But then you can start to move in more frequently. If there is one modification I am likely to make, it would be to open up more in the 7-15 BB levels.
Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: Graham C on January 31, 2006, 11:38:33 PM I'm not sure I can do it like that all the time but I think it could do ok. The only reason I am out is to two unlucky flops (IMO) Doubling up early would be good but you need the blinds high enough to do so.
Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: Gryffles on January 31, 2006, 11:42:54 PM There is an entire book dedicated to being an all in merchant, its called "Kill Phil".
The basic premise is that pros prefer to play postflop where they have bigger edges, so only the weaker players will be calling you unless its AA/KK. vampitup - the player phil gordon is referring to is a big of a big internet name, Spiritrock aka mahatma. aka Prahled Friedman. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on January 31, 2006, 11:45:14 PM Doubling up early would be good but you need the blinds high enough to do so. IMO, this is good but I don't think you need the blinds to be high to do this. In a short time, I have seen some amazing things, ie, call for entire stack with Q8 clubs just cause he has limped in UTG! Another good one was A9 suited calling an all in when I had AK in level 1 of a sit and go. With some people, once they have put a chip into a pot pre flop, they will go all the way with the hand! Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on January 31, 2006, 11:51:18 PM The basic premise is that pros prefer to play postflop where they have bigger edges, so only the weaker players will be calling you unless its AA/KK. Yeah, that's basically what Sklansky said, and also, according to some accounts how Noel Furlong won the WSOP in the 90s. The thing is, it's harder to call an all in for your whole stack or a high proportion of it, unless you have a premium hand, so blind stealing is made somewhat easier. I will give you an example. $20 sit & go on stars earlier, I was playing normal poker. I had AQ spades in the SB and made it 300 to play with blinds 50/100. BB called, flop 77K 2 spades. First to act, I decide to go all in and try to pick the pot up and slightly overbet the pot with the all in. BB calls in a flash with 3 7. Point is, he would never have called the all in pre flop as it was such a higher proportion of his stack. vampitup - the player phil gordon is referring to is a big of a big internet name, Spiritrock aka mahatma. aka Prahled Friedman. Have you ever seen this guy play Gryffles?? What site does he play on? Anyone fancy trying this in a cash game???!!! Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: Gryffles on February 01, 2006, 08:31:27 AM Quote from: vampitup Have you ever seen this guy play Gryffles?? What site does he play on? Anyone fancy trying this in a cash game???!!! He plays on UB high stakes cash games. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: Wardonkey on February 01, 2006, 09:15:53 AM I once took my brother to play a £5 re-buy tourney, he had never played poker before in his life and didn't know the difference between a flush and a straight. I taught him Sklansky's system, adapted for the more manic Gutshot beginners night (the system was originally devised for the WSOP main event).
It was one of the funniest things I have ever witnessed, the other players were scared witless of him. Whenever he was involved in a pot (always all-in pre-flop) he would just sit there with a bemused look on his face waiting to see if the dealer gave him chips or took them away, he would have been incapable of reading the board even if he had remembered his glasses! He got to the final, claimed 3 more victims and amassed a huge chip lead. It all went a bit wrong then, he deviated from the system for the first time and called off half his chips with A9 and Q10. He eventually came 4th, from 110 runners, and won £240 from his £10 (buy-in and 1 add-on). I was very proud of him and could not wipe the smile off my face for days after. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: matt674 on February 01, 2006, 09:43:42 AM I believe that if you are a player of better than average skill then this system will not be good for you in the long run. By only limiting yourself to two moves, either all-in or fold you are taking away the skill factor of the game and just relying on lady luck. If you are better than your opponents then use your skill and ability to outplay them and as many of their chips without putting your chips at risk where at all possible.
Sklansky took a quote from Bobby Baldwin just after the main event of the 1981 WSOP main event and interpreted it as follows: "expert players do not rely on luck, they are at war with it. They use their skills to minimize luck as much as possible. They figure they're getting the best of it, and they leave the lucky draws to their weaker opponents. To the extent that they are getting the best of it, they will win more than they lose. Over the long run everybody gets the same proportion of good and bad cards, of winning and losing hands. Beginning poker players rely on big hands and lucky draws. Expert poker players use their skills to minimize their losses on the bad hands and maximize their profits on the big hands. They also are able to judge better than others when a big hand is not the best hand and when a small hand is the best hand." Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on February 01, 2006, 10:02:07 AM I believe that if you are a player of better than average skill then this system will not be good for you in the long run. By only limiting yourself to two moves, either all-in or fold you are taking away the skill factor of the game and just relying on lady luck. If you are better than your opponents then use your skill and ability to outplay them and as many of their chips without putting your chips at risk where at all possibl I think there certainly is some skill element to this, ie hand selection according to the stages in the tournaments. It also stops you getting into trouble with hands when you end up chasing draws etc. Example, if you go on a blind steal with a hand like T9 suited or JT and flop either top pair or decent draw, but come up against resistance, how far do you go with the hand? The whole point is that you have to put your chips up for risk when you find a 'playable' hand at that stage of the tournament, and hence makes it much harder for opponents to call. For example, the guy who defended his blind with 3 7 who I gave an example of earlier, would not have done so (or at least much less likely to do that) if it was for all his chips. There are some hands you don't want to see a flop with and hence unless someone finds a big hand, you won't have to if you just move all in pre flop. Having said that, I have seen some atrocious calls so far as you are taking the opponent out of his comfort zone, they were actually dominated by my hand and I doubled through. Did anyone who I PM'd last night have any luck with the system? I would try it on a site like Stars where the structures of tournaments are usually better than the crypto network, and there are less people willing to call for all their chips which certainly exists on crypto! Expert poker players use their skills to minimize their losses on the bad hands and maximize their profits on the big hands. They also are able to judge better than others when a big hand is not the best hand and when a small hand is the best hand." I wouldn't class myself as an expert player by any means but I have far better results live than online, as live I find I can gauge mentally whether a player is weak or strong, and have a better idea whether I have the best hand or not. Online, obviously this is more difficult and hence harder to read a player, and with so many volatile players online I often seem to be folding the best hand. The system avoids this. Whether I would use it live is a different issue, although when I played at the Walsall festival recently the players were so volatile it was like playing online! Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: Graham C on February 01, 2006, 10:10:34 AM No joy but I may give it another go tonight. You can't sit around waiting for AA, KK or AK on the first few levels - it just doesn't happen often enough, perhaps A 7 would be enough?
I don't think it would be a good long term stratagy though, maybe a few STT's but if you go all in all the time, you will get outdrawn at some point and it will mean the end of your tourney when you do. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on February 01, 2006, 10:11:34 AM Also does anyone fancy trying this in cash with the idea of moving in on the flop instead? Like the guy Phil Gordon described, and Gryffles referred to, move in with 2 pair or better or any draw. Go all in pre flop with AA, KK, QQ, AK.
When I get back from work tonight I am going to try this on a couple of $5 buy in cash games on Stars. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: matt674 on February 01, 2006, 10:20:27 AM I'm sorry but if i get AK early on in the tourney when the blinds are only say 15/30 then i am not putting my 1500 chips at risk just to win a possible 45 chips. If i get called by any pair then i'm actually having to rely on outdrawing my opponent to win the pot!!
If i want to play games of chance then i'll go down the local bingo hall of an evening instead........ Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: AdamM on February 01, 2006, 10:21:41 AM why do you want to take ALL the skill out of poker. only moving in on a selected range of hands doesn't make it skill, it makes it reliant on the luck of the deal. the more hands you're dealt in your range, the more likely you are to win.
Sorry guys but I don't think this All in or pass strategy has much to do with poker. I realise that it's tough to beat because unless the whole table reacts in the right way to it tilting weak players will chip up the All In player. if the whole table simply rocked up it and only called with top 10 hands it and played strictly in position it wouldnt take long to knock you out. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: Wardonkey on February 01, 2006, 10:34:02 AM The system is designed to give the complete novice a chance in a no-limit tournament. The whole point of it is to take the skill out of the game by eliminating the decision making process. It serves its purpose very well and is difficult to play against. I doubt it is profitable in the long-term and skilled players will undoubtedly have better results than anyone playing 'the system' on a regular basis.
Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: matt674 on February 01, 2006, 10:56:35 AM The system is designed to give the complete novice a chance in a no-limit tournament. The whole point of it is to take the skill out of the game by eliminating the decision making process. It serves its purpose very well and is difficult to play against. I doubt it is profitable in the long-term and skilled players will undoubtedly have better results than anyone playing 'the system' on a regular basis. And the novice will never learn anything from the game................... Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: Wardonkey on February 01, 2006, 11:07:06 AM The system is designed to give the complete novice a chance in a no-limit tournament. The whole point of it is to take the skill out of the game by eliminating the decision making process. It serves its purpose very well and is difficult to play against. I doubt it is profitable in the long-term and skilled players will undoubtedly have better results than anyone playing 'the system' on a regular basis. And the novice will never learn anything from the game................... It is not supposed to be a teaching aid, its purpose is solely to give a COMPLETE novice (a total non poker player) a chance, not to create a winning poker player. Slightly more experienced players may gain something from experimenting with the system as part of a more rounded poker education. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: matt674 on February 01, 2006, 11:18:07 AM It is not supposed to be a teaching aid, its purpose is solely to give a COMPLETE novice (a total non poker player) a chance, not to create a winning poker player. case closed............ Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: Wardonkey on February 01, 2006, 11:32:25 AM Matt, I don't know if your argueing with me or not, but I think your missing the point.
I'm not trying to say that anyone should use the system as a way of playing regularly. I don't think anyone has suggested that. To deny that the system has any value what so ever is wrong. It is very good at what it was designed for. As part of a rounded poker education it is an interesting experiment. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: matt674 on February 01, 2006, 11:47:02 AM No sir i'm not arguing with you i'm just trying to make the point that for anyone with an ounce of knowledge and skill of the game that this is not the way to play poker as in the long run it just would not be profitable.
Looking at the thread there are several people who have said they have tried it or that they were going to look into trying a slighty modified version and whilst it may be a bit of fun whilst playing a $1 sit and go - it isn't the way to make a profit in the long term. How many top class players can you name who incorporate this style into their game? How many big tournaments have been won recently by players using this method? Come the think of it how many small tournaments have been won by this method? Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: AndrewT on February 01, 2006, 11:54:14 AM Matt, I think you're still missing the point.
Say this system turns you into a player who would rate as 4/10. If you were a novice (1 or 2 out of 10) then the system would provide a quick and easy way to improve your results. However, if you were a 7/10, then of course you'd be mad to switch to the system. Some people don't care about becoming better players, they just want the best chance of making money right now. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: thetank on February 01, 2006, 12:04:33 PM Matt, I don't know if your argueing with me or not, but I think your missing the point. I'm not trying to say that anyone should use the system as a way of playing regularly. I don't think anyone has suggested that. To deny that the system has any value what so ever is wrong. It is very good at what it was designed for. As part of a rounded poker education it is an interesting experiment. It's early yet, but this is the best post I've read all day. Sums things up perfectly. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: matt674 on February 01, 2006, 12:06:02 PM Matt, I think you're still missing the point. Say this system turns you into a player who would rate as 4/10. If you were a novice (1 or 2 out of 10) then the system would provide a quick and easy way to improve your results. However, if you were a 7/10, then of course you'd be mad to switch to the system. Some people don't care about becoming better players, they just want the best chance of making money right now. but then how would you ever improve beyond being a 4/10 player? in fact you would remain as a 1 or 2/10 player but using luck rather than skill to improve your chances slightly. Surely the best way to make money right now is by learning how to become a 7/10 player?? Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: Bongo on February 01, 2006, 12:15:49 PM I think the system would definately increase my chances of falling asleep at the poker table.
Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: AndrewT on February 01, 2006, 12:16:26 PM but then how would you ever improve beyond being a 4/10 player? in fact you would remain as a 1 or 2/10 player but using luck rather than skill to improve your chances slightly. Surely the best way to make money right now is by learning how to become a 7/10 player?? Read the last line of my post again. If you're a 1/10, the best way of making money in x months down the line is to learn how to be a 7/10 player. The best way of making money tonight is to use the 4/10 system. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: matt674 on February 01, 2006, 01:40:16 PM So tonight the 1 or 2/10 player becomes a 4/10 player for the night, so what does he/she do tomorrow - same again? So tomorrow the 1 or 2/10 player becomes a 4/10 player for the night. In x months time chances are the cycle continues.....
Ok so i'll change the angle i'm coming from here. I am not disputing the fact that the system would slightly improve the chances of a COMPLETE NOVICE. I know that there will be some people who read the forum who are complete novices but i will hazard a guess that the majority (98-99%) do have some form of poker experience in one way shape or form and are therefore NOT complete novices. As this is a poker forum one of the aims of having such a large community talking and posting about poker one of the benefits is that through the posts and debates is that we can try and learn from each other and improve our game as much as possible. If i were to do a poll with anybody on this forum who thought of themselves as an average or upwards player (say 5 or 6/10 upwards) and asked "Would incorporating the all in or fold system and playing it instead of your normal game increase or decrease your profits?" i'm guessing that the overwhelming majority would say that it would decrease. Therefore how can anybody advocate playing a system that they wouldnt incorporate themselves? If someone were to come up to me and say "i'm a complete novice - please could you show me how to play?" i wouldn't show them a system that would not be beneficial to them in the long run. Many of the poker professionals on this forum will probably tell you that they are still learning the game now and as the saying goes "texas hold'em - it takes 5 minutes to learn but a lifetime to master". anybody who thinks that they can get a "quick fix" to help improve their results needs to think again Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: Wardonkey on February 01, 2006, 02:00:49 PM Anyone who does get stuck using the system as a way of playing every tournament they play was never going to be a winning player. The system might just be as good as they were going to get anyway. The others who have the desire and discipline to improve will recognise it for what it is, they may experiment with it briefly but they will soon move on and develop their game.
Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: AndrewT on February 01, 2006, 02:57:27 PM So tonight the 1 or 2/10 player becomes a 4/10 player for the night, so what does he/she do tomorrow - same again? So tomorrow the 1 or 2/10 player becomes a 4/10 player for the night. In x months time chances are the cycle continues..... The system is aimed at players who are not thinking about how they're going to play in x months time. They just want the best results now. Therefore how can anybody advocate playing a system that they wouldnt incorporate themselves? If someone were to come up to me and say "i'm a complete novice - please could you show me how to play?" i wouldn't show them a system that would not be beneficial to them in the long run. Say a complete novice comes up to you and says "I've never played poker before, but I've accepted a challenge from Phil Ivey to play heads-up no-limit for £100,000 - how should I play?" How would you play against Phil Ivey in this situation? Is this what you would suggest to the novice? Personally, I'd outline some kind of system to the novice. Even saying "go all-in every hand without looking at your cards" will steer the novice to victory a third of the time. It's not going to make him a better player, but it will be a good strategy for this scenario. And it's entirely different to how I'd play Phil Ivey. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: matt674 on February 01, 2006, 03:10:57 PM Say a complete novice comes up to you and says "I've never played poker before, but I've accepted a challenge from Phil Ivey to play heads-up no-limit for £100,000 - how should I play?" How would you play against Phil Ivey in this situation? Is this what you would suggest to the novice? Keep your money - read about the game, learn by playing small limits and come back in about 10 years time The question first asked on the thread was: "All-in or fold - is it a viable tournament strategy". Heads up is a different kettle of fish all together...... Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: AndrewT on February 01, 2006, 04:17:22 PM Say a complete novice comes up to you and says "I've never played poker before, but I've accepted a challenge from Phil Ivey to play heads-up no-limit for £100,000 - how should I play?" How would you play against Phil Ivey in this situation? Is this what you would suggest to the novice? Keep your money - read about the game, learn by playing small limits and come back in about 10 years time It's too late for that, he's accepted the challenge and it starts in five minutes. What advice would you give him that would be more likely to succeed than my "Go all-in every hand blind" strategy? Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: Bongo on February 01, 2006, 04:43:13 PM Don't look at your cards - that way Ivey won't be able to read you.
Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: mex on February 01, 2006, 05:46:30 PM ERRRRR. Whats the point in playing without the fun and invlovment. I play because i enjoy it. This sucks the enjoyment out of the whole thing.
This is pure greed. I Think as an experiment interesting as a way of playing....................go find another bandwagon. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: matt674 on February 01, 2006, 06:02:37 PM It's too late for that, he's accepted the challenge and it starts in five minutes. What advice would you give him that would be more likely to succeed than my "Go all-in every hand blind" strategy? My words would be along the lines of "you've seen them do it on celebrity poker club - knock yourself out kid." I wouldnt attempt to give advice that i wouldnt follow myself and being an MTT monkey if someone asked about heads up advice i would point them in the direction of someone more suitable. If someone asks my advice on MTT's then the first thing i would say is to ask around, if you ask the same question to 10 different people you may well get 4 or 5 different answers depending on their playing style. Then its up to the individual to take the best bits that they think would best suit their own style of play. <post edit comments: p.s. out of curiosity have you ever played a heads up match where you have just gone all in every hand? Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on February 01, 2006, 10:15:58 PM Seems I have created a hornets nest here!
Just got back from working for the day and have read and absorbed some great posts. Firstly may I say this: I don't know whether the system would ever create a profit in the long term. That is up for serious debate and testing, and potentially modifications. Personally I think it could do so online, as you can use it to play x amount of tables at the same time playing on auto pilot. As for live poker tournaments, probably not. I myself would not want to use it live, but online I probably would as you can't get the same reads on players, especially if you multi-table. Online poker has a more 'no fold em hold em' mentality, and hence this may be the best way to get blind steals in. As a tight player, what sort of hand do you need to call an all in from the button on your BB for your whole stack, for example? I am not debating that a skillful player would be able to make MORE long term than any sort of system, but that is not the argument here. A point to Matt674, you seem quite anti this system, as it removes the skill element from poker. Surely Prahlad Friedman, who uses a similar style of playing in high-stakes cash games very successfully, must have some sort of skill to do it, not to mention devising a system in the first place? I also seem to remember a very similar analogy to the Ivey question in a poker text, saying that if you played heads up with Negreanu your best chance as a novice would be to move in every hand, and then when he takes a stand against you, you have some back up chip wise and probably still a 35-65 shot. Finally, to all readers of this post. When you took up poker, did you do so because of your love for the game (even though you never played it before), or to attempt to make money? I know my answer. If a system can possibly make more money for you than playing ABC poker then why not go for it? Also, how has anyone got on trying this? Anyone brave enough to try it in cash yet? Gonna have more goes in a minute. Will be on Poker Stars if anyone is interested (vampitup). Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on February 01, 2006, 11:08:51 PM My dad followed this strategy and came 23rd tonight out of over 500 players on the William Hill tournament he played. Some quite good results on test at the moment!
Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: 12barblues on February 02, 2006, 03:44:50 AM How many big tournaments have been won recently by players using this method? Come the think of it how many small tournaments have been won by this method? Last weekend I had the misfortune to play a MTT and spent an hour and a half on a table which included a guy who appeared to be playing a version of 'the system'. As far as I could tell, he was pushing pre-flop with any pair, any Ace and any two cards Ten or better. He was extremely lucky, but he won the tourney. Was it a $2 rebuy? No, it was a freezeout with a $100,000 prize pool and he walked off with $26,000. There were several other players in the tourney who may (or may not) be blondes and may have run into him after I donked out, e.g. there was a 'pkrgirl', 'Royal2Flush', 'riverdave69' and a couple of others I can't remember now! Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: thetank on February 02, 2006, 03:52:14 AM Well one thing must be said about him, he picked the right game.
That strategy has by far a greater chance of working in a big buy-in comp than in a smaller one. (Still a bad idea to apply folks, stick to playing poker) There's more sense to it live than online. Online there are less oppurtunities for a rookie to be demolished post flop by an expert than the B&M game. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: 12barblues on February 02, 2006, 04:16:12 AM To make life even more difficult, another guy was going all in on the flop with great regularity. It looked like all in if he connected with the flop in any way, shape or form.
Between them, they terrorised the table and the second guy came fourth or fifth in the end. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on February 02, 2006, 04:18:47 AM This evening, I played another 45 player sit & go on stars using 'the system' and came 6th (and to a bad beat in the process). So results of 10th, 9th, 9th, 1st and 6th so far.
I also played a 1cent/2cent cash game $5 buy in on stars, trying the cash game ideas out. Was down to about $2.50 and then upto almost $19 playing like an absolute loon, all in on gutshots etc, and doled out some absolute shocking beats to people. The two hands I lost big money on was when I lost full house v full house (using both our hole cards as well!), and trips v full house. Still, I ended up with a small profit on this as well. Got one guy on tilt big time. Wiped him out 3 times, said he was going to bed to cry!!! My dad had that one good result, but he said he did badly on 9&10 player STTs with it, especially on crypto. I haven't tried it on there, but he says the slower structure of Stars tournaments suits the system better. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on February 02, 2006, 04:19:59 AM To make life even more difficult, another guy was going all in on the flop with great regularity. It looked like all in if he connected with the flop in any way, shape or form. Between them, they terrorised the table and the second guy came fourth or fifth in the end. That's the whole point, it takes people out of their comfort zones, and they are forced to play differently to how they would like. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: JoeStrummer on February 02, 2006, 11:48:34 AM Interesting post. I have tried this once before in an early $2 multi and managed to get heads up but unfortunately finished 2nd. What I did was:-
1. Raise every hand by 4 or 5 BB`s in any position. 2. If re raised by an all in, fold unless holding a monster. 3. On the flop, all in with any type of draw, flush or pair. The key to this is obviously doubling up in the very early stages when there’s a lot of action so your stack can take an hammering. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: matt674 on February 02, 2006, 12:30:55 PM A point to Matt674, you seem quite anti this system, as it removes the skill element from poker. Surely Prahlad Friedman, who uses a similar style of playing in high-stakes cash games very successfully, must have some sort of skill to do it, not to mention devising a system in the first place? Two quick points - (1) How can you compare the styles of an ultra agressive high stakes cash game player with that of an "all in or fold" merchant? Prahlad Friedman does not restrict himself to two moves every hand and still retains the ability to outplay his opponents post flop, post turn and post river. (2) High stake cash games and tournaments are two completely different kettle of fish. A style which is effective in high stakes cash games is not necessarily guaranteed to work in tournament play. Even Doyle Brunson eludes to this in his Super Systems book which was first published many moons ago. Your original question was "all in or fold - is it a viable tournament strategy?" not "all in or fold - is it a viable cash game strategy?" Every player has a view on the best way to play tournaments and once they have paid the entry fee to a tournament they can play the tournament how they like - if this is how you think you can best make a profit from poker then that is up to you. I wish you luck in your quest. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: byronkincaid on February 02, 2006, 12:32:57 PM Quote How many top class players can you name who incorporate this style into their game? How many big tournaments have been won recently by players using this method? Lee Nelson. 2006 Aussie Millions. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: thetank on February 02, 2006, 12:37:34 PM Prahlad Friedman ........... retains the ability to outplay his opponents ............. post river. I need to improve my post river play. Anyone got any tips? Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: matt674 on February 02, 2006, 01:02:27 PM Quote How many top class players can you name who incorporate this style into their game? How many big tournaments have been won recently by players using this method? Lee Nelson. 2006 Aussie Millions. http://uk.pokernews.com/news/2006/1/aussie-millions-champion.htm A link to an article commentating on the final table of the 2006 main event at the aussie millions. Please could you explain how Lee Nelson is used the technique of either going all in pre-flop or folding to win the tournament when not one of the hands that is mentioned in this piece has Nelson going all in preflop? Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: byronkincaid on February 02, 2006, 02:06:27 PM You said "incorporate" He co-authored Kill Phil which is an expansion of Sklansky's system. His co-author Blair Rodman has stated on 2+2 that he used Kill Phil moves to win the tournament. I think this could be described as "incorporating this style into his game"
It has been said that some pro's are unhappy about this book coming out as it reduces their edge against beginner/intermediate players who start using Kill Phil moves. Maybe that's why you seem to be getting a bit stressed out about this topic ? :D There a a ton of threads about this on 2+2 with many people taking your line. I can't really comment any further as my copy of the book hasn't arrived yet. from your link Quote Despite the unthreatening blind sizes, all-in bets were beginning to appear. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: matt674 on February 02, 2006, 02:17:53 PM His co-author Blair Rodman has stated on 2+2 that he used Kill Phil moves to win the tournament. And you don't think this was in any way to promote the book and get people to go out and buy it?? :D Maybe that's why you seem to be getting a bit stressed out about this topic ? :D Lol, thankfully monkeys don't suffer stress - this one doesnt anyway, if he were any more laid back he would be lying down - as i am in the picture used as my avatar on pokerstars. ;) i'll look forward to the book report when it arrives - from what i've read of the transcripts of the aussie millions final table Lee Nelson just played a good aggresive game of poker. maybe the book will prove me wrong (wont be the first time :)) Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: byronkincaid on February 02, 2006, 02:25:25 PM yeah maybe you're right. it's not something that I feel strongly enough about to want to argue. I agree all in or nothing is a pretty stupid way to play all hands but obviously sometimes it can be a good move.
Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on February 02, 2006, 04:35:36 PM As 12barblues says, these two were terrorising a table. Now if a table consisted of 3 top pros, and 3 of the other six were moving in pre flop or folding, and the other 3 were moving in on the flop having hit a piece of it, how would they fare? I don't think they would fancy their chances. Hence it would negate the impact of their skills. This system would also improve results for a weak/tight player IMO, as they get bluffed off too many pots.
The original post was about whether it was a viable tournament strategy. But I am open to comments, and very mathematically inclined, so maybe it could work in the cash environment as well. I will have to get this Kill Phil book, only 1 used one on Amazon for 35 quid though! The trials continue... Good luck to those who I sent 'the system' too, can you let me know any results. Cheers everyone. Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: thetank on February 02, 2006, 04:54:43 PM Snoopy's thoughts on Kill Phil
http://www.blondepoker.com/books/210011.html Title: Re: All in or Fold? Is this a viable tournament strategy? Post by: vampitup on February 02, 2006, 05:11:16 PM Cheers tank, will have to get that.
Update - current 45 player tourney on Stars, all in on blinds 15/30 with QQ, called by 33 and J5 lol!!! Tripled up. Talk about getting donations off people, takes them out of their comfort zone. |