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What price would you make Leicester to win the EPL next season?

And Man City?

I can only see 1 set of prices so far, which have...

Man City 6/4

Arsenal 6/1

Chelsea 6/1

Man United 6/1

Tottenham 6/1

Liverpool 7/1


Leicester 40/1


The reigning champions at 40/1 is unheard of, & of course unlikely, as apart from anything else, they have CL to contend with next season, though perhaps not for too long.

Are Leicester "value" at 40/1, ditto Man City at 6/4?

what price are west ham?

(man c clearly a more interesting price than leicester, think you can get 7/4 today)

before a ball was kicked this season

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChheCcUWgAES3f5.jpg)

I would be backing Leicester to be relegated at 40-1 which I saw quoted. Kante and Mahrez will be subject to huge financial offers to move, add in European midweek games, and that everyone will want to beat them as they are champions. Would look to back them to be in the bottom half as well. Sorry Tighty but you are having your moment - enjoy.

City price looks right to me. Would happily lay Leicester at 100-1.

Ooh, good shout - they are an eye-popping 150/1.

What would you have West Ham at?

I'd make them similar to Leicester, I think. Like Leicester they have a seriously under-rated & impressive Manager. Not so sure that the Stadium move will be a positive, though. Shades of Man City there, though at least West Ham have some history.

i might have a couple of bob e/w WH 3 places at 150-1. think the stadium move will be a positive, think they will strengthen again and the financial deal on the stadium is so good i think top 4 could be on the cards soon, gives them quite a competitive advantage

Top half for Leicester would do, but frankly who cares. doesn't matter what happens next year

on the one hand everyone is tempted to say the top four will reassert, pep is coming, conte etc etc but the facts of it are that

- the rewards under the new tv deal are very flat
- all PL sides are in the top 30 richest in europe
- so can go to psv, ajax, benfica, porto, italy, bundesliga and get talent, bump their wages up and compete on a weekly basis in the PL (obviously getting people out of real, barca, bayern, psg is a no go)
- so we will see more payets, shaqiris and kantes going to "non-traditional" destinations and

i think, another jumbled league table

which is why i think 150-1 a west ham (or a southampton?) is interesting

where is 3 places

Hate to say it but Liverpool look value to me if Klopp gets in a decent centre half and a for striker

Scuy also have prices, for all four leagues. This is unheard of, used to have to wait until July for prices to go up.

Can see Man City going off bigger than 2/1 for this at the start of next season.  Very tough competitive handicap feel about the EPL now.  Yes they are the most likely team to win it.  Do they win it 35% of the time?  I don't think so.

Not just "winners", but all the sub-markets, too, including for the EPL......

 
Relegation 15/16


Top 4 Finish 15/16


Top 6 Finish 15/16


To Finish Outside Top 4 15/16


To Stay Up 15/16


Top Half Finish 15/16


Bottom Half Finish 15/16


Top Goalscorer 15/16


Top 3 Exact Order 15/16


Top 3 Any Order 15/16


Top 4 Exact Order 15/16


Top 4 Any Order 15/16


Relegation Treble 15/16


Premier League Bottom 3 Exact Order 15/16


Winner 16/17


Top 4 Finish 16/17


Premier League Relegation


Prices are more conservative next season though. Burnley just 2000/1 looks a tad low........

sky did have burnley at 5000/1 last night
they soon cut to 2000
cant be too careful

How will the FFP wage caps be effected by the new TV money?

I think that to increase the wage bills by more than £7m ps/or £19m more than 2012/13 season, the clubs just have to show an excess in the clubs own revenue increase, which every club is going to have because of all the TV money.

Is Leicester winning the league really a loss for the bookies in the win the Premiership market?

I keep reading it but can't get my head round it.

- outright losers on leicester, a loss..some lumpy but a lot cashed out sub-optimally (understandably)
- every pre-season acca down, a big win
- every bet on top four down, big win

PR from free advertising from leicester winners, cash out advertising, worth many millions and much more to come after the season with lcfc players involved in campaigns

2016-17 punters backing the next outsider to do it, a goldmine of profit

they'll be alright

talking of PR

Alan Alger ‏@Alan_Alger_ now3 minutes ago

First major bet on our @betway - Premier League title market for 2016/17 - £500 EW on Leicester City at 40/1. You couldn't make it up

Imagine how much of a wagon you have to be to even get a bet with betway to win £20k in the first place?

Amuses me that it's apparently OK for bookies to lie. Just downright lie.

Leicester would have been a complete skinner for every firm. Massive winner for them.

On the ante-post it has to be a skinner, they're making it up.

But I saw Nick Goff in a twitter reply alluding to loads of mugs jumping on the bandwagon in the first month of the season at still tasty prices of 500/1 etc which makes a bit of sense to me.

Who is going 3 places?

no one yet

will be by the end of the summer

far too competitive to be interested in 1/3 1,2

I would think someone will go 1/5 1,2,3 at some point.  Hills current win book on oddschecker would have roughly 330% place book at 1/5 123 so not a great deal of margin in the place book compared to what they would like but still reasonable given how much turnover it would create potentially.  They are top price 2 of the front 6 so a reasonable book to compare it to.

Overall, it would have been a fantastic season for bookmakers.

But I believe in the outright betting Leicester would have been huge losers.

This. The bookies are not poor this season without a doubt. But yesterday when the outright bets were settled, there was a rather large deficit.

Chelsea 6/1 looks the price to me if their defence holds up from the summer activity. Big if perhaps. You'd be fuming this morning if you were a fan watching that performance at the Bridge last night.

Otherwise, Spurs 6/1 with a new striker to support Kane and the squad having had another year together. Spurs have had one player play one game who was over 30 all season, and that was Vorm in the opener because Lloris was out.

Everyone is going to be looking for outsiders but that's precisely why the bookies will be having fun for the next few months of this Leicester result.

I don't care about anything apart from what price I'm going to get about West Ham finishing above Leicester.

What price would you make Brighton if they come up of:

1) Staying up

2) Top half

3) Champions?

Evens

4/1

1000/1

even skybet will beat that price

Which one?  Don't think they will be a million miles away from the true prices on any of them.  I think evens they stay up might be a tad big if anything  The days of teams going off 1/2 or shorter to go down are long gone with the new TV money in the EPL.  Much more competitive playing field esp with two of the old school 'big clubs' at least going down this season. Plenty of the new school (Norwich, Bournemouth, Watford, WBA) types that brighton wouldn't be much more likely to go down than alongside Burnley and whoever else came up.  Happy to lay 1/7 they finish in the bottom half if you want that.

The winners

1000/1

Sky are 2000/1 burnley

Brighton are certain to be shorter than Burnley.

I'm sorely tempted by the evens to stay up.

Brighton could be anything next year with Bloom cash.  There is no way they go off bigger than 1000/1.  i would be amazed if under 1000/1 isn't done on bf pre season on brighton given what has happened this season.  Burnley chairman came out today on SSN and said 'we won't be doing much different to last time in the EPL balancing going for it with protecting the finances of the club'.  Cue not much spending over the summer and hanging on for 40 points.  Going for it for Bloom would just be a couple of big losing weekends on the soccer for his operation.

I'd rather be laying City @ 6/4 than backing them, Guardiola can't possibly be underrated but may well be overrated, obv big variance in Cup competition but to not take that Bayern team to a CL final is a clear failure. Squad also has a lot of question marks against it, Kompany injury record has to be a concern and the rest of the Defence would worry me, KDB and Aguero obv World Class and think Iheanacho looks big prospect but overall big job Pep is taking on there.

At this moment with so many question marks over most teams I'd back Spurs.

Given that winning the Bundesliga should be certain given the advantages Bayern have, the only yardstick to measure Pep was Champs League.  3 losing semi finals feels a poor return on his tenure imo.  Doesn't seem to have impacted his reputation though - everyone still seems to regard him as best coach in the world.  For me Simeone out thought and out fought him tonight, with far lesser resources.

I think City are a bet, not at the current price but if they go 7/4 or bigger I would get involved.  

Pep will bring a different style he will play very similar to the way Pottechino does at Spurs by using the full backs as outright winners, Agguero will have more support and he will improve their ball retention and have them passing slicker.  

He will also have the biggest budget to bring in whoever he likes.  

I don't think he has failed at Bayern, there aren't many managers in England as capable as Simeone at playing anti-football.  I mean look at how many even failed to see how basic and one dimensional Leicester were in attack, Tighty write about it almost weekly.

Although if Arsenal get rid of the Arse and Simeone goes there I may revise my thoughts on EPL winners.

I can't fathom how 3 consecutive semi final appearances in the hardest competition about is failure. 

Because they are odds on to get to that stage every year.

They are bigger than 15/8 on bf already.  Fill your boots.

Where is pep going to get the best fullbacks and who

What would you consider bayerns "break even" in the competition?  Losing 2nd round?

Eh and betting markets are always right?

Not always but they are not usually wrong Kmac 3 years in a row by a great deal to justify your argument here.

1/50 to get through the group stages every year.  1/10 ish to win their first knock out round 1/4 maybe for the 2nd one if they get a reasonable draw.  Doesn't look that tough a treble to cop every year.

Rojo will be a available

nick goff's blog this morning talking about coral/leicester losses and why

https://gemsandrhinestones.com/

Contains this excellent two-liner......


This was summed up superbly by Martin Johnstone, who owns JEM Racing on the south coast, who said “there has never been a sporting event that has produced so many experts in bookmakers’ liabilities.”

Leicester have led for months and the price has just got shorter and shorter for months on end.  Amazes me people think bookies will have won on this market.  I am surprised the firms haven't lost more than they are claiming.  I know loads of pros who have got stuck into Leics odds on in the last few weeks for massive amounts of money as people 'give it away' greening up their huge prices they obtained earlier in the season and force the Leicester price higher than it should have been.  In turn the firms being a slave to the machine match this price which is 'wrong' and keep laying over the odds on an outcome that is already a massive loser for them from casual bets now the big pros get stuck in to hoover up the value. 

Arb - sent you a PM yesterday about settlement terms which I can't remember.  Take a look when you get the chance.

Cheers

ok will do.

second part of the nick goff blog

What price SHOULD Leicester have been?

https://gemsandrhinestones.com/

This conversation came up this morning at work

It is obviously hard to explain to a Leicester supporter that even those who won at 5000/1 didn't really have a good bet as it should have been 25000/1

I tried to explain, obviously didn't work as he still had a pound with HopkinBet

(http://i968.photobucket.com/albums/ae169/StuartHopkin/20160506_114729.jpg)

https://geoffbanksracing.com/2016/05/06/outfoxed-by-leicester/

Great article , thanks Rich