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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: du pont on November 06, 2016, 07:28:53 AM



Title: WPT close to money decision
Post by: du pont on November 06, 2016, 07:28:53 AM
Thoughts please. We're 5 0r 6 away from money in the main event. Min cash is £4500 with £200k up top. Chip leader on our table is raising re-raising lots (playing good aggressive poker). He has the button on a good solid pro who's in the BB. Keeps raising him and pushing around. One hand solid pro then rr him. Chip leader calls. Nothing board flop goes cc. Nothing card turn pro checks, chip leader bets solid pro folds. So chip leader wins another. A few later chip leader raises, solid pro goes all in for 140k ( blinds are 3-6k). I wake up with AK suited. I have a stack of 135k. My thinking was that although the solid pro wasn't exactly tilting, he was probably getting fed up of being pushed about. I felt my hand was too big to fold. I'd decided before playing that day that I obviously wanted to make the money, however if a spot arose I would go for it. This was that'spot'. He had JJ and it held up and I'm out with my tail between my legs and no money. My situation is that £4500 min cash would have been vevy nice but not life changing.
Thoughts... 1, what would you have done in that position. 2, was my attitude/thinking correct that day. 3, should I have have been thinking of playing to get into money first and then been more positive.
Feedback appreciated. Thanks in advance.


Title: Re: WPT close to money decision
Post by: pleno1 on November 06, 2016, 07:47:57 PM
Hey.

I think it's a very clear fold unless villain shoves from button or small blind. Not only Icm wise will we not be getting the correct equity advantage to get it in, but other poeple in the tournament will be making Icm mistakes this meaning that we should get it in even wider than Icm would suggest.

I remember there was quite a few short stacks and a lot of crazy crazy bastards left going wild so you will cash at a very high frequency and will still have a manageable stack.

I'd go JJ+ here


Title: Re: WPT close to money decision
Post by: doubleup on November 06, 2016, 08:02:55 PM
You say 5 or 6 from the money?  How many players are left?  68 or 69 is a lot different from 23 or 24.  What is the average stack?

I think to pass this up you would have to be looking at the actual bubble coming up in a couple of circuits - that would obv be more likely happen with more tables and also in that situation you are pretty far away from the big money so losing a few chips waiting for the bubble isn't going to be horrific.  With fewer players left you are going to lose a lot of chips just trying to sit out for the bubble as it will probably be a few circuits and doubling up would give you a much better chance of going deep and even becoming a bully yourself on the bubble.  He obv has a strong range, but I think in the latter case, you can't really pass.

Hopefully some of the sharks will be along to give their thoughts.

edit shark already appeared


Title: Re: WPT close to money decision
Post by: Karabiner on November 06, 2016, 08:14:52 PM
It's a very tough spot and I'm almost sure that I'd do the same as you did given the metagame you describe, unless I was desperately trying to make the money first and foremost which might very likely be the case given the amounts involved. Having said that 20+odd BB's is a very playable stack at this stage.

I really hate this spot in all honesty.


Title: Re: WPT close to money decision
Post by: EvilPie on November 06, 2016, 11:04:11 PM
I'd fold and just never tell anybody. Certainly don't say anything at the table or give that agonised "I've got a really tough decision" look or you're going to get pushed around a lot for quite a while.


Title: Re: WPT close to money decision
Post by: pleno1 on November 07, 2016, 04:59:35 AM
actually think the opposite, we're only playing jj+ anyway, tough for them to push us around when we want to play aces, when the bubble breaks it allows us to win more pots uncontested too.


Title: Re: WPT close to money decision
Post by: du pont on November 07, 2016, 05:43:55 PM
Thanks again ( I'd already thanked in advance) for the feedback. I really appreciate it, love the thought proceeses.
( doubleup, to answer your question there was 60 players left average is about 260k)
On reflection before my original post I did think fold was the probably the correct play but not necessarily a 'clear' fold.
However in my defence let me give you my thought process at the time.
Pads (Barca, I'm Leicester by the way😜). You said there was lots of was crazy bastards going wild, but at the time of the hand (it may have got crazy after my exit) we had been playing for 25 mins into day 3. At that stage there had only been 3 all ins and calls, resulting in 2 double ups and one exit (so now 2 more bigger stacks than me). With 6 more left to bust it could have been another 2 or 3 hours for the money ( I know for a fact that last years hand for hand bubble went on for over a hour). As it happens the bubble burst quite quick this year after only a hour & 10 mins or so. I wasn't to know that at the time.
Back to the handin question, like I said the villain probably wasn't tilting but he was getting pushed about. My hand is almost never dominated in this spot( AA or KK would surely just reraise  here) so my thinking/ hoping is that he has worse A i.e AQ AJ or at worst we were  filpping v a pr.
By the way, what are your thoughts on him having say AQ  rather than JJ here, what do you think he would have done? He was out of position. Would he flat call, fold. Imo and because of the dinamics of the table and the chip leader raising and rr most hands he would have shoved there also. Really interested in what you pros think there.
Like I stated in original post I was determined to be positive and I wouldn't shy away from a big decision. Let's say I fold that hand, play for another 2 and half hours,  get anted away and have to put it in on the bubble with 98with a stack of 70k and get 2 callers. I would have really been pissed off then.
Again really appreciate the feedback and look forward to your thoughts👍