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Title: Anyone want to work this one out? Post by: TightEnd on January 16, 2017, 02:33:34 PM in your head, no hand calculators!
seen this weekend (don't know when the money went in, lets assume the turn) so on the flop J-9 is what percentage? on the turn J-9 is? (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2PHZZ9XcAAgiuc.jpg) Title: Re: Anyone want to work this one out? Post by: Longines on January 16, 2017, 03:14:54 PM Will give it a go - needing perfect perfect is pretty close to 1000/1 so will use that.
Winning run outs are: 7c 9c 9c 7c Qc 9c 9c Qc Roughly 250/1 on the flop? And 44/1 to hit the 9c on the river? Title: Re: Anyone want to work this one out? Post by: verndog158 on January 16, 2017, 03:38:59 PM Will give it a go - needing perfect perfect is pretty close to 1000/1 so will use that. Winning run outs are: 7c 9c 9c 7c Qc 9c 9c Qc Roughly 250/1 on the flop? And 44/1 to hit the 9c on the river? surely that happens less than 1 every 250 hands? i have no idea, interested to see what the answers will be Title: Re: Anyone want to work this one out? Post by: arbboy on January 16, 2017, 03:44:27 PM Will give it a go - needing perfect perfect is pretty close to 1000/1 so will use that. Winning run outs are: 7c 9c 9c 7c Qc 9c 9c Qc Roughly 250/1 on the flop? And 44/1 to hit the 9c on the river? Spot on. 20 times more likely to get beat with flopped quads than Leicester winning the League last year! Title: Re: Anyone want to work this one out? Post by: doubleup on January 16, 2017, 03:47:23 PM So the flop was JJJ? I'd guess that the money went in on the river after a slow play as it seems a big pot (25s and a 5k in there).
combos are 7c9c and Qc9c which is 2 from 990 or 494-1 Title: Re: Anyone want to work this one out? Post by: SuuPRlim on January 16, 2017, 04:07:01 PM Would actually be fascinated to know the action in this hand
Title: Re: Anyone want to work this one out? Post by: verndog158 on January 16, 2017, 04:17:12 PM Would actually be fascinated to know the action in this hand id love it to be 108cc checked jammed flop, quads slow roll called and then 108 gets there!! Title: Re: Anyone want to work this one out? Post by: Simon Galloway on January 16, 2017, 05:22:01 PM I used to like doing these.... mind you, I used to like playing poker too.
Working it out from the perspective of the guy drawing... On the flop, 45 cards are unknown, of which 3 cards keep your dream alive. So you need to ping one of the 3 cards out of 45 and then the case card on the river out of 44. so 1/15 * 1/44 = 1/660, or in odds-speak, 659/1. With no calculator, I'm not turning that into a percentage. I also need to add something in, if the 9 hits the turn, then there are 2 possible outs now on the river. ** will come back to that a bit later! On the river, there is simply 1 card to hit out of a possible 44, so 43/1 shot. ________________________________________________________________ Ok, re-thinking the logic, I think the easiest way is to take the 4 possible runouts ... but surely there are 1980 possible combos?? Which would make 1/495, or 494/1. Definitely past it, in every sense of the word :D Title: Re: Anyone want to work this one out? Post by: TightEnd on January 16, 2017, 07:32:10 PM Would actually be fascinated to know the action in this hand don't know about pre-flop checked down to river quads leads, straight flush raises, quads shoves, call. Title: Re: Anyone want to work this one out? Post by: doubleup on January 16, 2017, 07:42:58 PM Would actually be fascinated to know the action in this hand don't know about pre-flop checked down to river quads leads, straight flush raises, quads shoves, call. So the flop was JJJ? I'd guess that the money went in on the river after a slow play as it seems a big pot (25s and a 5k in there). combos are 7c9c and Qc9c which is 2 from 990 or 494-1 What's my prize? Title: Re: Anyone want to work this one out? Post by: Rupert on January 18, 2017, 02:48:58 AM I used to like doing these.... mind you, I used to like playing poker too. Working it out from the perspective of the guy drawing... On the flop, 45 cards are unknown, of which 3 cards keep your dream alive. So you need to ping one of the 3 cards out of 45 and then the case card on the river out of 44. so 1/15 * 1/44 = 1/660, or in odds-speak, 659/1. With no calculator, I'm not turning that into a percentage. I also need to add something in, if the 9 hits the turn, then there are 2 possible outs now on the river. ** will come back to that a bit later! On the river, there is simply 1 card to hit out of a possible 44, so 43/1 shot. ________________________________________________________________ Ok, re-thinking the logic, I think the easiest way is to take the 4 possible runouts ... but surely there are 1980 possible combos?? Which would make 1/495, or 494/1. Definitely past it, in every sense of the word :D 0.0015%? roughly 3/2 right? Title: Re: Anyone want to work this one out? Post by: Rupert on January 18, 2017, 04:48:29 AM oh yeah, that is wrong because you can be open ended on the river. So it's 1/45 * 1/44 * 4 = 1/45 * 1/11 = 1/496? 1000/496 ~ 2, so just under 0.2%?
also saw that I didn't convert probability into % in last post Title: Re: Anyone want to work this one out? Post by: JK on January 19, 2017, 09:19:44 PM Would actually be fascinated to know the action in this hand Flop checks 3 ways Turn Quads bets, SFD calls River Quads bets, SF raises small, quads jams (I think this is correct, was relayed to me by a dealer at the time) Title: Re: Anyone want to work this one out? Post by: SuuPRlim on January 26, 2017, 02:22:14 AM Gotta be a terrible jam from JJJJ there unless the raiser is the PF aggressor and somehow had QQ.
Title: Re: Anyone want to work this one out? Post by: Doobs on January 26, 2017, 08:50:53 AM Gotta be a terrible jam from JJJJ there unless the raiser is the PF aggressor and somehow had QQ. Zeebo's theorem still works in live games? |