blonde poker forum

Which side do you like?

1k buyin rule pushes it into the 0% territory for me.

Can't see how he does this in cash.  1000 buy ins is 10 a session.  Guess you'd have to hit the MTTs and hope to run good.

10 years ago would be a lot easier.

Who the heck is this nutter?

Hit up the plo..

In before Camel says he hopes it's Negreanu.

He is called Miika Antonnen

Chuck Bass on 2 plus 2.  He used to be good.  Think bet is 5 years late but glgl

While at first glance this may sound more like a PGC thread, please hear me out first. I may have gotten myself into quite a pickle, and it's too late to back out, so... yeah. I have committed myself to the following prop bet, starting tomorrow:

-I have 120 consecutive days, of which I can play a maximum of 100
-I need to turn 500€ into 10k€ playing MTTs
-I need to also make at least 1000 buyins in the process, so no shot-taking will save me
-I need to stream 16 days+ of the challenge, which will probably mean 4-tabling sessions --> I have more like 84 days to do this plus the stream days. I also have no idea about this whole streaming technology so I'll probably just be tilted and lose INF on those 16 days. And those 84 days will include Christmas, NYE, my birthday etc, plus I think I'll miss another 10 or say because of off-bet live poker trips

(a couple of other clauses I will not bore you with, but which make it impossible for me to have any short cuts in any way, I will need to follow conservative BRM etc, live poker doesn't count. I can also play anything outside the bankroll if I want, so if you see me playing the SM or something then I'm doing it outside the challenge. I'm not intending to do much stuff off-challenge, but I gotta YOLO a couple of HS birds before I quit for old times' sake)

The monetary wagers I can't disclose (stupid Finnish legislation) but let's say that if I lose, two things will happen

1) I will go somewhat bankrupt
2) One of the terms of the bet is that I'll have to quit poker and related posting/blogging forever and get a 9-5 job, so if I fail this will be end of my 10-year poker career.

(I will be allowed to post/tweet about my book specifically, since it would be quite suicidal to not be allowed to do that)


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https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/61/mtt-community/possibly-career-ending-prop-bet-itt-1691128/

Didn't want to copy the full post. Don't really see the point, seems like its mostly publicity driven.

Forget the excuses and just assume he is going to play 100 days worth. I'm not quite sure what volume you can manage regards to the amount of mtt's that are available at an ABI of approx $9 but you should be able to put in tasty 3pm-1am sessions 5 or 6 days a week for the sake of the prop bet. You will blast out 3k games if you were to do this. Given that probably isn't going to happen we can be VERY conservative and say he is going to play 2k games and in order to win the prop bet he will need to manage a 50% roi.

I dunno how good this guy is at mtt's but if the price were right I would do this with a very high success rate. Just completely down to what kind of ROI he can manage and if he can comfortably 7-9 table for a decent stretch of the day and finally if he is actually properly committed to the bet and not take too many days off.

From things he has said recently a huge % of the games are going to be on sites like party and 888 with "softer" and much smaller fields.

Is Party any softer?  He plays on Winamax already and probably needs a skypoker account. 

What advantage would anyone gain from him quitting? Seems a weird thing to put in the bet.

Not enforceable and no upside to whoever wins so only imagine he's put it in the bet himself as an added extra which basically just means he's gone ALL-IN on the bet, which I imagine means he probably hasn't been winning, either because of bad game selection, not been good enough or been running terrible.

So it's not really a smart bet, makes for some sort of a biggish headline...

He hasn't won for 2 years and he's betting his net worth on it, so if he loses then it's basically gg

If he's mtting I'd be amazed if he's anything less than 15 tabling, think 5k games is v easy. He may not have won at midstakes+ for a while but he's good enough to beat low stakes just clicking the not-silly buttons (although he did have a penchant for those buttons iirc :D ). If he's as over it as he sounds then he might not be in a good place for grinding a zillion $8 mtts though - I'd say he's a favourite barring a blowup.

So we know what he stands to lose, what does he stand to gain?

A few benji's I believe

If he is currently doing badly, many of the losses will really be gains.  For instance if he is losing money, quitting professional poker can't be a loss to him.  He can still play recreationally anyway. 

I read a bit about him and he has a "book" and this can't be a bad thing for promoting that.  This bet certainly got me intrigued.  Reading interviews etc, he certainly has a destructive streak with his gambling, so this doesn't even look out of line and losing this challenge isn't going to put him in a position he hasn't been in before and may even be good for him in the long run.  I am not claiming it is definitely a positive, just it may well end up that way.