blonde poker forum

Is it possible to be a lucky or unlucky player?  Even over a long period of time?  Is there ever a large enough sample (be it cash games, sit and go's, MTTs) that rules out luck?  Supposing there is a large enough sample, then surely if we get unlucky we shouldn't care as we know in the long run if we are a winning player, all we have to do is play enough games and hands?

Ahhh but what if you get lucky in a £5 tourney and unlucky in a $10k WSOP main event.

Would that count as breaking even ?

There is no such thing as luck.

The more hands you log the less of a factor luck becomes. In the pure long run there is no such thing as luck.

Poker players get too hung up on luck. Thinking about it can only cause you problems because a) it's something you can have no influence over, so any time spent thinking about it is wasted and b) dwelling over bad luck will negatively influence your play, which will lead to poorer results, which will create a vicious circle when your poor play and your belief you are unlucky negatively reinforce each other.

Luck is simply the short-term fluctuation in variance. Bad poker players decry luck - they think it costs them money. They use bad luck as the crutch upon which they support their misplaced belief that they are good players. Good players realise that luck is their friend. It helps disguise the bad poker player's shortcomings from himself.

If I spent twenty minutes playing tennis with Roger Federer, I would be in absolutely no doubt as to the disparity in our relative skill levels Twenty minutes playing poker with Phil Ivey and, if I got lucky, I might beat him. This misguided overinflation of my own powers would then help swell the bankrolls of the next players I face.

i am an unlucky player! You know this Rupert :)

"expert players do not rely on luck, they are at war with it. They use their skills to minimize luck as much as possible. They figure they're getting the best of it, and they leave the lucky draws to their weaker opponents. To the extent that they are getting the best of it, they will win more than they lose. Over the long run everybody gets the same proportion of good and bad cards, of winning and losing hands. Beginning poker players rely on big hands and lucky draws. Expert poker players use their skills to minimize their losses on the bad hands and maximize their profits on the big hands. They also are able to judge better than others when a big hand is not the best hand and when a small hand is the best hand."

In large live events (hundreds of runners, large buy-ins), the long run is said by some to last longer than the course of a human lifespan. Playing these you could be unlucky over the course of a couple of years. Most would be wiped out before then.

Online tournaments and cash games, the best players will have the money at the end of the year, end of Jack-a-nory.

If you want it quantified, a wise man once said....

Poker is 60% luck, 30% observation and 30% mathematics.

Seriously though, a way of putting a number to the "luck" factr is in the standard deviation. This can only be obtained experimentally (as far as I know) with data from a large number of sessions and will be unique to you for each type of game that you play.

The deceptive thing in poker is that most people don't realise how long the 'short term' can be.  The variance involved in the game can sometimes put your patience to the test.

To give you an example, if you are a limit cash game player it will probably take around 50,000 hands of data before your poker tracker stats start to settle down.  If you're a SnG player, you'll need at least 500 results in your sample before you can talk about ROI% with an degree of confidence (and even then you'll need much more).

If you're a live player it'll probably take you over a year to accumulate 50,000 hands.  I also know people who will do this in a month playing online.

Consequently, depending on your circumstances you may run 'unlucky' for a considerable period of time and still be well within the realms of mathematical expectation with regard to variance.

If you want to understand this side of things a little further I recommend 'Gambling Theory & Other Topics' by Mason Malmuth which has some good material on these issues.

Sheriff

Of Course Luck plays a part in poker!

You get dealt AA when someone else gets dealt KK - you've been lucky
That same person hits one of the 2 kings on the flop - you've been unlucky

2 examples

The trick is to minimise the luck factor, but there will ALWAYS be times when you just cant get away. (My exit hand from the £500d/c a prime example where someone sets me in, i hold trips, they have ONE out and hit)

If poker was a game of skill, then only the best would win ALL the time.

I am trying VERY hard to ignore the Luck side of things - in Poker strange hands will occur, some you will be lucky, some you will be unlucky

Every time I lose its bad luck.
Every time I win its great skill.

If anyone REALLY thinks this, they will never improve

Did I REALLY need to add a  ;) ? lol

ooooooh im a hero member now. what do i get?

Your P45 - its obvious that your spending too much time posting on poker forums instead of doing your job!!

(though it isnt me writing this - i'm busy working at the minute ;))

I think my manager would agree with you if only he knew....

what was that saying about giving a thousand monkeys a thousand typewriters ?

its complete rubbish - our monkey fingers struggle to use computer keyboards, we have no chance with typewriters. Plus we can't get the hang of pushing the barrel thing back when it pings at the end of each line!!  :D

Spot on Sheriff.

OK matt, make that 3 examples! lol

(I was gonna use that one, but thought better of it)

:)

Seeing as how you wont be at the up and coming Blonde Bash i'd have though you would be safe to use it as it wont be possible for TE to gain revenge in a few weeks ;)

What’s the deal with Matt and monkeys then? Are you really a monkey?

Does anyone listen to the Ricky Gervais  pod casts? In every podcast they have a monkey news feature. Maybe someone should inform them of our poker playing monkey?

Is the pope catholic?

Do one legged ducks swim in circles?

Do bears s**t in the woods?

Maybe the technology hasnt yet reached us this far out in the jungle but what is a podcast and why do we have our own news feature?

Check out http://www.guardian.co.uk/rickygervais/0,,1652674,00.html

Download all the podcasts in mp3 format and listen to Karl Pilkington's monkey news. They are quality!! Start from number 1. Not sure if you can still download the first one on that site but I'm sure you can find it somewhere on the web. Maybe Ricky Gervais' website.