blonde poker forum

$15 STT turbo on Stars. Four handed, table is tight as it's bubble time.

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Foaming_H [Ts Js]
Foaming_H: raises 400 to 600
2 ez: folds
Wpalango: folds
Lcorn39: calls 400
*** FLOP *** [8d 6s 9s]
Lcorn39: checks

What's your move?

Oops forgot to add. Lcorn39 (4010 in chips) Foaming_H (2975 in chips)

try and get them all in. you're probably ahead of AA here

check raise or re raise depending on your position. bascially try to get all your chips in.

Can't check-raise if they've already checked. ;)

missed that bit.  8)

just get your chips for gods sake.

You're around 55% to hit by the river here but i would want them to fold because your on the bubble. Move in and Lcorn will probably fold because he will want to conserve his chips. If you bet any less he may come over the top of you with much less of a hand than he can call your all in with.

Foaming_H: bets 1000
Lcorn39: calls 1000
*** TURN *** [8d 6s 9s] [Jh]
Lcorn39: checks
Foaming_H: bets 1350 and is all-in
Lcorn39: folds
Foaming_H collected 3400 from pot

nice, well played

I cannot think of a single reason why you would bet the turn there.....I would check that 100 times out of 100.

On the flop yes you are ahead of AA... I'd bet 400 or 600 maybe, try to keep him in and pray he reraised me.

But checking on the turn gives him a chance to bluff, with you being poorer than him and stopping betting, and with 4 left, and with a very big pot, him stealing is very possible.
However if you bet all in like you did, you give him a chance to fold his AK for example.
If he has say AA, he is now ahead and will call.........so why bet this turn?   in my opinion that is not 'well played'
However, you bet 1000 on the flop and got a call, which is more than I'd have got so I guess well played on the flop but not the turn.

1. He can't have AA because he would've had to raise me on the flop or preflop.
2. Any AK will fold on the flop apart from AK spades which would have bet or raised on the flop, or most likely re-raised preflop 4-handed.
3. If I don't bet now, he won't bet on the river unless he's beating me by pairing his kicker, (if he has something like A8) or makes trips.

Since when is J hi ahead of AA?

Yeah he is a faveourite. A very small one.

When you have 77 on the Bubble do you pray that AQ calls your all in?? Thats basically what you are all saying.

Yes i stick my chips in, but i am hoping for a pass not a call.

Royal flush.....flush and open str8 draw is ahead of AA on the flop, if you don't know this then you should change your i.d.  :)
 
By betting on the turn you will give weaker hands a chance to fold, but hands beating you will not fold..........betting this turn is a long term losing play.

A bigger losing play is checking and letting people over-take you. Have you thought about what you are saying? You are checking with the intention of calling the river, so any hand that is slow-playing you, you are going to pay of anyway... so whether you lose to THEM on the turn or river is irrelevant. You aren't getting people to bluff off the river anywhere near as much as you seem to think, so thats a wishful play.. and if you bet the turn you dont give people a free card to outdraw you.

In summary:

checking loses the same to the good hands as betting. (a very high % of the time)

checking lets hands see a free river and outdraw you, betting doesn't.. and on this board, there are going to be quite a lot of hands that are drawing given the action on the flop so far. We can apply bayesian theory to this scenario as support.

checking induces a bluff a pretty small % of the time. betting doesn't

checking lets them get to showdown cheaper with a second best hand. betting doesn't

Hmm.. it seems like in a game with linear chip values, betting is likely the best move. but WAIT! theres more!! its a sng on the bubble.. you aren't looking to maximize chipEV, because maximizing chipEV doesn't (always) equal maximizing $ev.Strike one more up for the betting people


betting here most certainly isn't a losing play, checking here isn't a losing play. To assert otherwise is just ludicrous.

I assume that you are at least cognisant of ICM.. so you should work out the different T Values against different ranges/scenario's/results to show you just how much more profitable it is to bet here rather then check. I am not inclined to do this for you, but you should.

I agree with Flushy here..... AA is ahead on the flop. No matter what you say! You may be FAVOURITE to hit your draw but how does this mean your ahead? If you stopped it right there and then or if nobody improve on the turn or river then you lose - simply because you WAS NOT ahead. You are FAVOURITE!!

Good comparison too flushy with the 77 vs AQ scenario.

Yeah its a pet hate of mine, being a faveourite does not mean you ahead! Although of course i would rather the JTs :D

totalise, although I don't agree with you, at least you, unlike the two posts after you, made sense (apart from the last bit which may as well be latin).

LOL well all the posts make sense to me (ok maybe not the last bit of Totalises), the thing about hand analysis is that we can all agree/disagree to out hearts content.
Put forward our opinion and our reasons for them, slagging off peoples play and others opinions is just rude.

Spot on.

I know its a big raise but I'm all in on the flop here. You only have 3k and 1200 is in the pot. You do not want to see an off suit Ace or King on the turn because it ruins your hand.

Yes you may well be 55% over AA here but the real trick is to make yourself a much bigger favourite by giving the other guy maximum opportunity to pass his hand. You do this by going all in.

On a seperate note: Checking the turn is an awful idea once the Jack has come down. What if the river is an ace and he has A2?

playing the odds means there is always what ifs.

but yes ifm I was rude you are right and I apologise.

having said all that, about 10 minutes ago I finished 1st of 650 for $3981 so I'm in a good mood and I'm more than happy to be wrong about everything :)