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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: TightEnd on March 27, 2006, 06:10:01 PM



Title: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: TightEnd on March 27, 2006, 06:10:01 PM
OK we are down to 11 in a £25 rebuy comp

9 get paid, £2k to winner

I am on the BB, with 10,000 in chips, blinds are 300-600

I estimate there are two shortstacks below me


I have  9c 3s on the BB

unremarkable

Newish player limps in the cut off...not great standard has raised UTG with  Ks 6s, could be any two cards here

Very Good standard blondeite who knows me well and has battled with me many a time completes in SB

I check, obviously

1800 in the pot


Flop  Ad  9s 9h

Hellloooooooooooooooo

SB checks

I check

Cut off fiddles with chips as if about to bet and checks (silent swear words)

Turn

 3d

Helllllllllllllllllllllllllllllooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Now normally I would bet trip 9s here I suppose (weak lead) and hope I get set in but I think I will check (hand is too strong to bet) and bet the river looking like a steal and,  cut Off is playing with his chips again and looking very interested

but he checks.....bugger


River

 Ahrt

Oh crikey

SB checks

I bet the pot, figuring my 9 must be good....surely anyone with an Ace doesn't check it twice?

Cut off folds, SB with a few more chips than me moves all In

Check raised all in on the river by a good player with your boat counterfeited?

Its a call for all your chips?

call or fold?

what can he be making this move with?


and yes I should have bet the turn and won it there and then.....



Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: GlasgowBandit on March 27, 2006, 06:15:06 PM
Call for me.

I don't think he would have checked the aces twice plus to put all his chips in when he could maybe have made a medium bet and still took down the pot or did he put all his chips in hoping he never got a call and tried tos care you off it.

I'm thinking he had an over pair to start with and was scared by the first A on the board.


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: thetank on March 27, 2006, 06:18:20 PM
PASS

You've only lost 20%ish of your stack in the pot and are certainly not commited.

Your hand was a monster, it now might as well be 72o.

Not a huge fan of the river value bet to be honest with you. What cards are you hoping to be payed from?


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: TightEnd on March 27, 2006, 06:20:11 PM
I agree it was a bad river bet

very foolish...looked weak inviting someone to come over the top

by the time I do bet this hand its too late


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: GlasgowBandit on March 27, 2006, 06:20:43 PM
PASS

You've only lost 20%ish of your stack in the pot and are certainly not commited.


Thats probably why I loose and you win Tank!

What did you do Tight End?


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: totalise on March 27, 2006, 06:41:27 PM
go with what you know:

a) you know he is a good player. If you have seen the cut-off's playing standards, then he certainly will... maybe you would expect him to raise the ace rite here.

b) he checked the ace three times. Would he do this? and more importantly, would he expect you to check it twice? He knows you are good, he probably doesn't expect you to check it twice.

c) you bet the river. Well, he cant put you on the ace, given your play...so he wonders why you are betting. The most likely explanation is that you are on the nab.



Given all this info, I could find a call, and not sweat it too much if he turns over an ace. Something doesn't quite add-up.

Against an unknown, I would be more inclined to fold, but when its good player vs good player, theres a lot of scope for tomfoolery given the way its been played so far.





Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: Newmanseye on March 27, 2006, 07:18:28 PM
I think you have to fold tighty, IMO I would not have checked the trip 9's on the flop, The ace is probably calling you for the turn.  On the turn i would put them to a big decision.

I think betting each street gives you the pot as the ace is not calling to the river.

Although the push by the small blind looks like a steal, Its a move that I have used a few times and it puts your opponent in the ringer, you are in a tough situation and a fold is the safe play.

What would be funny is if the small blind had King high.






Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: winkie on March 27, 2006, 08:42:17 PM
I can guarantee I didn't have king high newmanseye...!


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: Bongo on March 27, 2006, 08:50:32 PM
It's very hard to think what you'd have to check it twice and then go all in.

A complete bluff - possible?

An absolute monster? (AA, A9?)

A lone ace? Why would you check it twice?

I think it's great play whatever you had as it has us all confused and therefore we could make a big mistake here.



Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: Newmanseye on March 27, 2006, 09:30:17 PM
I can guarantee I didn't have king high newmanseye...!

If I had to guess I think you may have been on a stone cold bluff.  It taks a lot of disipline to check that sole ace to the end, I really do not put you on AA as you would not want 3 other people in the hand.  Has to be maybe a small pair or an fantastic bluff.


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: GlasgowBandit on March 27, 2006, 10:46:49 PM
I'm still thinking a pair of 10's!


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: TightEnd on March 27, 2006, 11:09:13 PM
I can guarantee I didn't have king high newmanseye...!

whatever you had (I'm not giving it away yet) it was a fantastic bet, in all seriousness

winkie, I would love you to describe the hand from your point of view.......


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: Bobwah on March 27, 2006, 11:43:58 PM
Good thread sir.

In winkie's place I'd put you on bugger all. Not betting the flop or turn would make me think you've got no piece of the board, which makes betting out on the end look like a last ditch attempt to nab a pot nobody else wants. It seems inconceivable that you'd check a nine twice and then bet out when it was at it's most useless. At no point in this hand would I be close to putting you on what you were actually holding.

If I had my brave hat on I'd have done exactly as winkie did, unfortunately my testacles shrink the closer to the bubble I get, and so I probably would just let you have it and said something lame like "nice bluff, you can have it this time".

In your spot I think I would have been a lot more confident. I've made such a good job of looking like a no-hand-holding pot thief that I've almost begged him to raise me back with any picture card. Now I'm sure the nine is good and I call, hoping to be hailed by one and all as a poker master.

If he shows the dreaded ace I think I could handle it. It would be just punishment for arsing up the hand so spectacularly.

I don't want my response to sound critical because from all the posts of yours I've read Tight End, I rate your poker brain very highly. All the more so for being able to post a hand that isn't all that flattering. I look forward to hearing how it ended. Please let me be right.

Bob


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: TightEnd on March 27, 2006, 11:46:58 PM
Yes bobwah...it was a complete cock up on my behalf


thank you for the "constructive"  :D criticism




Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: londonpokergirl on March 27, 2006, 11:50:48 PM
i'd bet out on the flop, then push all in on turn



Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: TightEnd on March 27, 2006, 11:53:18 PM
i'd bet out on the flop, then push all in on turn



but if the Ace doesn't come on the river I can bet the end looking like a thief and get called by all sorts of hands

granted I trapped, trapped and then trapped myself but i'm playing to extract chips not just pick up two limpers chips and thats it


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: londonpokergirl on March 27, 2006, 11:56:48 PM
but if you come out betting it , they'll not put you on the 9
if you push on the turn then they really can only call you with a 9,  so you've got the max from the pot without getting shafted babe


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: ruthless1 on March 27, 2006, 11:59:53 PM
Im getting my chips in on the flop, if not there all going in on the turn 8) i dont want to get out drawn.


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: ruthless1 on March 28, 2006, 12:01:09 AM
but if you come out betting it , they'll not put you on the 9
if you push on the turn then they really can only call you with a 9,  so you've got the max from the pot without getting shafted babe
very true Mel, great minds and all that.....


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: Bobwah on March 28, 2006, 12:09:26 AM
I think I would've checked the flop and put an end to the trapping shenanigans on the turn. You're still going to get called by any ace which is what you want. When the ace comes on the river I'm checking, the only thing you could achieve by betting would be pushing out anyone with the other nine, but they'd still probably call you and maybe even raise you back unless you pushed all-in.


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: Newmanseye on March 28, 2006, 12:23:06 AM
He bluffed ya Tighty, Just confirm it for us.


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: ACE2M on March 28, 2006, 01:22:46 AM
that is a very gutsy bluff if it is a bluff. You can only put him on one hand and can't call, i couldn't anyway. i had a very similar situation with a notable player in a cash game and he mucked it face up instantly.


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: thetank on March 28, 2006, 01:28:34 AM
From the river raisers point of viw, it is entirely possible that tightends has an Ace with a weak kicker. This would make him less keen to raise the river unless he had the goods.

Sure he might be bluffing, but if he is you need to be over 66.666666666666667% sure to make a call correct here IMHO.

I'd be nowhere near that certain and would muck 93o within a minute.


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: ifm on March 28, 2006, 01:49:48 AM
I'm guessing you fold (i reluctantly would) and he has a 9.........even 93 :D


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: TightEnd on March 28, 2006, 11:23:45 AM
I folded after a long think, face up

Late winkie told me he had a pocket pair.

True or not, it was a great bet....

I played it all completely wrong

I had to fold, although in my heart of hearts I didn't think he had an Ace


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: winkie on March 28, 2006, 12:48:44 PM
The hand from my view:

Pre flop
A limp from the guy on the button. Never played against him before, but since I sat down at the table, I've seen him make some poor moves, but he's also got a decent stack. He starts playing with his chips before flat calling. Mmmm... I'm now thinking he's either got an absolute monster (AA, KK etc.), or he's got some sort of drawing hand (J10 suited maybe). I look down, find XX (I'll post what the XX is later), make up the blinds and Tightend checks on the BB. At this point I don't put Tighty on much of a hand, as he's made several all-in moves in the previous few hands.

Flop
Comes down ace-9-9. I check, Tighty checks and the button dwells for a few seconds, then checks. Now I'm still unsure about TE's hand (could be anything), but am now thinking he doesn't have an ace. Not sure what hand the button has - could still be the pre-flop monster AA or KK.

Turn
A 3 on the turn. Again I check. TE checks. Button has another dwell, but checks. I noticed TE starred at the button before checking. This could mean several things, but I keep it in mind. Again the button could be trapping with the made house (aces over 9's) or big two pair (KK 99).

River
The second A on the river. I check and TE bets 2k into a 1.8k pot. My brain's now thinking... "what hand can TE have that can possibly justify the 2K bet?...". The button is still to act and I'm sure TE has the same read as me about the button's possible hands. He obviously thinks the button is weak having checked both the flop and turn. Now I'm waiting for the button to act. 

The button passes. Bingo! So the button didn't have a monster all along and TE's read is correct. So, what does TE have? Don't put him on the A. If he had an A with a big kicker he would have made a play pre-flop. Maybe he has an A with a small/medium kicker? I ruled this out because he knows the button's checked the flop and TE has not bet on the turn to find out where he is.

But TE did have a look at the button on the turn. I didn't think he had a 9. As some posters have already said, TE has checked both the flop and the turn. I think he's making a play for the pot. My two options are to fold or to move in for the pot (which is now 3.8k). I move all-in and have TE covered in chips. A few reason for this move:
1. I've played with TE on many occasions and know he's a very accomplished player.
2. The button's passed.
3. My actual hand is immaterial now.

TE thinks for a while before finally folding the 93o face up.

I made it onto the final table third in chips. The chip leader had already knocked at two players in quick sucession during the first round, and is playing very loose. This is how I got knocked out: all pass, CL raised on the button, SB passes and I look down on the BB and find AhQh. I move-in (I'm going for the win and looking to double up). CL calls instantly with Ac7c. Nice... I'm well ahead! Board comes blank-7-blank-blank-blank. Fantastic(!)





My hand in the TE pot was 55.


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: thetank on March 28, 2006, 01:09:30 PM
Very well played, HOWEVER, we'll have 50p now please  :)


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: Newmanseye on March 28, 2006, 01:15:06 PM
Very well played, HOWEVER, we'll have 50p now please  :)

No charge Tank, this was not a bad beat just a lacking in the balls department.


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: winkie on March 28, 2006, 01:17:38 PM
I think Tank's referring to the rant about my final table bad beat. 50p on its way....


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: Newmanseye on March 28, 2006, 01:21:56 PM
I think Tank's referring to the rant about my final table bad beat. 50p on its way....

Oh aye you did sneak that in at the end. cheeky


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: TightEnd on March 28, 2006, 05:20:43 PM
The hand from my view:

Pre flop
A limp from the guy on the button. Never played against him before, but since I sat down at the table, I've seen him make some poor moves, but he's also got a decent stack. He starts playing with his chips before flat calling. Mmmm... I'm now thinking he's either got an absolute monster (AA, KK etc.), or he's got some sort of drawing hand (J10 suited maybe). I look down, find XX (I'll post what the XX is later), make up the blinds and Tightend checks on the BB. At this point I don't put Tighty on much of a hand, as he's made several all-in moves in the previous few hands.

Flop
Comes down ace-9-9. I check, Tighty checks and the button dwells for a few seconds, then checks. Now I'm still unsure about TE's hand (could be anything), but am now thinking he doesn't have an ace. Not sure what hand the button has - could still be the pre-flop monster AA or KK.

Turn
A 3 on the turn. Again I check. TE checks. Button has another dwell, but checks. I noticed TE starred at the button before checking. This could mean several things, but I keep it in mind. Again the button could be trapping with the made house (aces over 9's) or big two pair (KK 99).

River
The second A on the river. I check and TE bets 2k into a 1.8k pot. My brain's now thinking... "what hand can TE have that can possibly justify the 2K bet?...". The button is still to act and I'm sure TE has the same read as me about the button's possible hands. He obviously thinks the button is weak having checked both the flop and turn. Now I'm waiting for the button to act. 

The button passes. Bingo! So the button didn't have a monster all along and TE's read is correct. So, what does TE have? Don't put him on the A. If he had an A with a big kicker he would have made a play pre-flop. Maybe he has an A with a small/medium kicker? I ruled this out because he knows the button's checked the flop and TE has not bet on the turn to find out where he is.

But TE did have a look at the button on the turn. I didn't think he had a 9. As some posters have already said, TE has checked both the flop and the turn. I think he's making a play for the pot. My two options are to fold or to move in for the pot (which is now 3.8k). I move all-in and have TE covered in chips. A few reason for this move:
1. I've played with TE on many occasions and know he's a very accomplished player.
2. The button's passed.
3. My actual hand is immaterial now.

TE thinks for a while before finally folding the 93o face up.

I made it onto the final table third in chips. The chip leader had already knocked at two players in quick sucession during the first round, and is playing very loose. This is how I got knocked out: all pass, CL raised on the button, SB passes and I look down on the BB and find AhQh. I move-in (I'm going for the win and looking to double up). CL calls instantly with Ac7c. Nice... I'm well ahead! Board comes blank-7-blank-blank-blank. Fantastic(!)





My hand in the TE pot was 55.



bugger.

an object lesson in how to trap yourself, from my point of view

an object lesson in how to thieve a pot from you!


Title: Re: Horrible river.....thoughts please
Post by: thetank on March 28, 2006, 06:21:59 PM
Still a good fold as far as I'm concerned.

That and the check pre-flop gets you 2/5  :D