blonde poker forum

$5/$10 No Limit Hold'em from last night, nine handed. I have $1010 in chips, and probably have a fairly tight image.

UTG folds and CallingMachine1 ($1566.70 in chips) raises to $30 from second position. I don't know a lot about him except that he overplays his big pairs. He has $1567 in chips because he tried to lose them all earlier with pocket kings, but rivered a full house to beat his opponent's obvious flush.

Its folded to DJ820 ($449 in chips) in middle position who calls (not much info on this player). I call from the button with Jc Tc , and the big blind ($1317 in chips) also calls.

As far as I'm concerned, this is about the perfect situation for J-10 suited. I'm in a multiway pot with the best possible position, and there's at least one player in the pot who I know overplays good starting hands and so is likely to pay me off. My implied odds are massive.

There's $125 in the pot and we see the flop which is  Jd - Td - 4c

The big blind checks, CallingMachine1 bets $75, DJ820 calls, and I raise to $325. Its a small raise relative to the pot, but it represents a decent proportion of DJ820's stack. What I'm hoping will happen is that CallingMachine1 will fold and I'll end up all-in against the short stack, although I'm prepared for other eventualities.

Actually, CallingMachine1 calls my raise after the blind folds, and then DJ820 moves all-in for $94 more. I call and so does CallingMachine1.
 
There's $1382 in the main pot and the turn comes Ks for a board of Jd Td 4c Ks

CallingMachine1 sets me in for $561. I'm getting about 3.5 to 1 on the call.

Should I call or fold?

This may sound daft but if he's as bad as you say then i have him on k-q and i would call here.

gotta call...

If the money is an issue you are playing too high, assuming the money isn't an issue you call every time.

If you were playing 1/2 and the all in was $50 you'd call right?

I think its an automatic call as well.

I think he may have a K with a rag and he think he has the short stack beat with HP.

It seems to me that you were not in anyway prepared for other eventualities. The obvious 'other eventuality' to CallingMachine1 folding is him not folding - which makes the pot $850 even if he only flat calls and the shortstack folds, which is more than you've got left in your stack.

In the situation described, with the short-stack all-in, the pot odds and your impression of the player means you must call. You only have to beat CallingMachine half the time to get a freeroll against the main pot with the shortstack. Even if you were to assume that CallingMachine has either AA or KK, then the K on board means it's more likely he has AA (which you're beating). Even if you lose against CallingMachine, the shortstack's range of hands include loads which you're beating (any straight or flush draw perfectly fits his betting pattern and no Q, 9 or diamond on the turn is good for you).

Even if you were only up against CallingMachine, on the flop you're beating an overpair (your most likely holding for him). Given he has called the flop, and considering the pot size and the size of your stacks - what turn card does he not push all-in with here? I'd say only a Jack or a diamond slows him down. 

That's a bit harsh. I was prepared (although I was a little surprised by his actual action), I just didn't want to discuss every single situation here because I thought the post was long enough as it is, plus I didn't want to give away anything about my actual action or what my opponents actually held.

Any more comments before I post what actually happened?

Go on then, what happened? ;)

Okay.

I take one look at the size of the pot and call instantly.

We turn the cards over...

CallingMachine1 has the A-Q of diamonds and has the nut straight with the nut flush draw. Oh dear - very bad! Well done if you thought this was one of his possible holdings. I wasn't convinced that he'd call so much money with a draw... usually people either raise or fold with these kinds of hands. However with a third player in the pot, calling is definitely better than raising because you don't want to eliminate that player. He's living up to his name, anyway.

DJ820 had the 9-8 of a diamonds for an open-ended straight flush draw (yikes!). The river is the seven of diamonds, giving him a straight flush!

So, I go broke, CallingMachine1 loses a third of his stack (because he wins the side pot against me), and DJ820 triples up.

Clearly, calling the turn given what my opponents held was a huge mistake. I put in about half my stack as a slight favourite, and the rest as a huge underdog. I think the key is really that CallingMachine is betting into an empty side pot, so he's definitely not bluffing. Of all the hands he would play this way (and I believe that does include pocket aces), he might even be statistically more likely to have a hand that I can't beat than one I can.

I think the right play is to fold the turn despite the great pot odds, and I'm disappointed that I rushed the decision and came to the wrong conclusion. However, I find it really reassuring that nearly every person on every forum I've posted this on would call, and I've seen some very convincing reasons why I should in fact call. I'm trying not to be too results-oriented, but I think there is some key information in this hand that I just didn't make use of, and which suggests folding.

Cheers for your analysis guys.

As it turned out, you were up against huge hands, which, in retrospect, may have clouded your judgement as to whether you should have called. As it happened...


...which was entirely the correct decision, for all the reasons listed in the above posts. There was no 'key information in this hand that I just didn't make use of, and which suggests folding'. They lucked out with huge hands. With what you tell us about CallingMachine, you lead us to call.

If this happens 100 times against these players, you show a long term profit by calling.

I apologize if I seemed a little harsh (especially given your other thread) but, to me, given the stacks involved, once I make that flop raise, I do it knowing that I'm not going anywhere with this hand. I need an absolutely huge reason to lay this down later on - one which I'm not given.

It was a definite CALL. The fact you lost the hand is irrelevant. The call was, imo, the correct play.

You can call all-in pre-flop with AA & lose, but it's still the correct play.

It's good to see you on the hand analysis thread, Tikay.

Yeah, maybe I'm being too results oriented. But I'm very critical of myself, especially when I lose a hand, so I like to look for ways to avoid mistakes like calling here. However I think in this case its a mistake that is extremely difficult to avoid for all the reasons people have said.

"Yeah, maybe I'm being too results oriented. But I'm very critical of myself, especially when I lose a hand"

Hi Alex,

You should be equally critical of yourself no matter where the pot is pushed at the end of a hand . You did NOT make a mistake by calling in that spot. A call here shows a +ev result so even tho you lost this one it is still a winning play. You can play a hand perfectly and still lose it , as long as you are the person that is playing the hand correctly you win.

I wouldnt even be in the pot. you have put nowt in the pot preflop (not in the blinds) with a basically pretty, but very poor hand. I know people will talk about implied odds but if everytime I called because of implied odds I would be skint. Did the other 3 people call because of implied odds.

for me this is a fold preflop, but thats just me

Are you mainly a tournament player?

I play both mate. Im not the worlds greatest but I have had a few good results on both cash and torni. all im saying is that people get carried away with implied odds.

if I call with  3c 4c (another pretty hand) every hand, I might bust someones aces but in the long run against 4 other players surely I will lose. Even if I hit a flush with these kind of hands there is a high possibility of still being beaten.

I personally play position and good cards, and stay away from pretty starting hands as they often are peoples undoing.

as i said I am not the best, so this is only my view

But calling for $30 when there is ~$100 in the pot and $1000 left to win if you do crack aces means you don't have to hit very often to break even...

From my understanding of his post, he was first to call the raise. so there was $30 from the raisers bet and $15 in blinds. He is putting $30 into a $45 pot. for me this is a fold

but thats just me

Im sure ill get slated lol

I play both mate. Im not the worlds greatest but I have had a few good results on both cash and torni. all im saying is that people get carried away with implied odds.

well this is certainly true, but the people that get carried away are those that play bad, and if thats the case they will just go broke anyways

if I call with  3c 4c (another pretty hand) every hand, I might bust someones aces but in the long run against 4 other players surely I will lose. Even if I hit a flush with these kind of hands there is a high possibility of still being beaten.

Maybe, but if you are calling $30 preflop with 34 and the have AA, you stand to win whatever is in their stack, and only lose $30 when you miss. This is tremendous, but perilous if you misplay post flop (as per earlier comment). As for the "high possibility" of losing to a larger flush comment, thats wrong. Do you play pocket pairs, or do you fold them because you can still lose to a higher set when you hit? I'm struggling to wonder what hands you would play!

I personally play position and good cards, and stay away from pretty starting hands as they often are peoples undoing.

its fine to just play good cards against bad players, because they make enough mistakes for you to be able to only play good cards, but when you are playing at the higher levels ( i have no idea what level you play) people are more attentive, they notice you folding everything apart from group 1 sklansky hands, and either dont give you action at all, or give you action when your group 1 hands are in trouble.

as i said I am not the best, so this is only my view

same here

all I am saying is he played the hand because of implied odds and implied odds only, and this unfortuently lost him alot of money. He put in 30 bucks to try and hit the flop,hit it and still lost over a grand. If he knew this player was weak, and a calling station why not wait for a monster as chances are you will get paid off sooner or later by him.

As I said I aint that great and this is only my opinion.

After he hits that flop, its hard to put that down and I understand that, but thats why playing hands like that will most times send you to the poor house.

Being results orientated in your thought process is in general a bad idea , but that is your perogative. gl to ya

but surely if you dont discuss the result, you lose the point of the conversation.

we are all in it to win money, so surely money won/lost is vital to the discussion

Really? I can't bring myself to turn down a potentially profitable situation like this. Maybe if everyone was very short stacked, but not when they're sat there with 100 big blinds or more.

You win the biggest pots in No Limit poker when you outdraw someone and they can't fold their hand. J-10s is a great hand for doing this in my opinion.

Potentially a profitable hand, potentially a stack buster!!!!!!!!!!

Yeah, but you can't worry about the worst case scenario all the time. You could flop a set and be up against a higher set if you call a raise with a medium pair like eights, but that shouldn't stop you doing it.

Oh, and by the way I am on the button in the hand I'm discussing, and I'm second to call the raise. Its not like I'm out of position and calling a raise in a small pot.

The same could be said about AA smithy.

One last thing - calling the turn is a mistake, at least according to the Fundamental Theorem of Poker, because if I could see my opponent's cards I would fold.

However, I think you're probably right that with the information I have about the players, and the way the hand has played out, I should call most of the time.

the fundamental theorum of poker was/is partially a tongue in cheek dictum to try and get poker players thinking the correct way, ie you want to play hands in a manner that get better hands folding, and worse hands calling... also to get hands folding when they have the correct odds, and get them calling when they have the worse odds.

The problem with it as an absolute theorum is that its just plain wrong in so many situations .. as an example, imagine having someone say "i will move all in with any pair" and you call with 33 and they flip over 22.. according to this theorum you played perfectly, but at the same time you have played the hand in a manner that will eventually lead you to going broke

I always fold aces preflop, unless Im in the big blind, and will only raise if i have the nuts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

remember that for future blonde torni lolol