blonde poker forum

I've been multitabling a lot recently and set over set comes up a little too often for comfort - so i'm going to post a few hands for discussion, but some of them won't be set over set. Here's the first one

dealt to dubbleup [6h 6d]
Chuckle: raises to £6
dubbleup: calls £5
Timo123: calls £4

----- FLOP ----- [Tc 6s Ah]

dubbleup: checks
Timo123: checks
Chuckle: bets £10
dubbleup: raises to £24
Timo123: folds
Chuckle: calls £14

----- TURN ----- [Tc 6s Ah][4d]

dubbleup: bets £50
Chuckle: raises to £186.75 and is all-in

What do you do here?

Lick your lips and call.

If you're behind, reload, try again.

If you're going to post a few, instead of 50p everytime, do you want to just write a cheque when you're done?

Set over set isn't a bad beat  (is it <nervous laugh>)

True, it's technically a cold decking rather than a bad beat.

Though 50p in the tin is still due for them. Basically, any poker story where you lose with a good hand will set you back half a pound.

You've got to call with these sets, when you run into a few bigger sets, that's just the reverse implied odds taking effect. Bear this in mind with your pre-flop play, whether it's worth calling a raise/re-raise to see flop with yer small pairs. That's where you'd make an adjustment if you think you're leaking too much with set over set.

After flop, however, it's usually a big mistake to lay down a set. You, and your opponent would have to be very deep indeed and/or you have some sort of monster read on them.

What probability would you put on either of the hands posted being set over set?

As the title of the thread is, Let's talk about set over set, I'd say 99% chance of you being against bigger set in at least oone of them.

How many players were dealt in pre-flop each hand? This makes being up against big pairs/bigger sets a lttle more likely.

First hand I'd say less than 25% in a full ring, less than 15% 3-handed.
2nd one I'd say less than 50%, less than 30% 3-handed.

These figures are not based on any Maths, rather they are derived from "feel" and educated guesses. As such, they are subject to ridicule.

both hands are six handed - in actual fact this one isn't set over set.  I was going to post more, but I am struggling for examples that are like this.   Which made me consider that it is possible to profitably get way from the situation.

Is the other one?

it is possible. What you need, is many many hours of play time against a specific opponent. If you know someone only raises preflop with AA/KK/AK, and the board is A/K/6/K, then you can fold 66 with ease.

The problem is that you almost never have enough reliable information in order to make this assumption, so you will be folding the winner far too often

You feel awesome when you fold 77 on a K79 board and they have 99, but most of the time you feel like crap when they open AK and you just rammed away a chance at their stack... and more times then not (by a high degree) they are going to show you a hand that you beat, rather then the other way round.

My general philosphy is, I need a damn good reason to ever fold a set, and most of the time I dont have a good enough one, so I dont fold.

i folded KK on an AK6 flop the other day.

Playing one of the the tightest players i've ever encountered, he reraised me in middle position pre flop and on the flop it went raise, raise, raise, all in. I couldn't imagine him re raising pre flop with Ak. He showed the AA god bless him, thats the first and last time i fold middle set on an unconnected board.

I think flushy said if you don't lose all your chips in a set over set situation you haven't played it right.

Off of the top of my head there is a 1/17 chance that you will be dealt a pp and a 1/8 chance that you will hit it on the flop. That makes a 1/136 chance that you will get a set this hand. Therefore the chance that two people get a set on the same hand are 1/18469 = 0.0054% (136^2=18469). If my calculations are correct (unlikely, lol) then obviously we should never really have to worry about it.

Plus you can always river quads.  ;tk;

Only there's usually more than one player dealt into every hand and theres usually more than one hand in a session.

 So don't think 18,000 to 1, it does happen.

And how sweet it is when you do. Think it has only happened for me once.

You're right tank i was a bit simplistic earlier.

So i did it properly,

Assuming a 10 handed table, two people get dealt pp's and they both hit a set = 0.15%
Three people get pp's and exactly 2 hit a set (the chance of 3 people hitting a set is so remote i'm not gonna bother calculating it) = 0.066%
4 people get pp's and exactly 2 hit a set = 0.025%

The numbers are getting pretty small so there is no point going further, that added up = 0.241% so we can generously estimate about a 0.25% chance of a set over a set = 1/400.

Ok a fair bit different from earlier but this also includes you being the higher set. This number will obviously go down ALOT if you only consider playing pairs above 66's etc.

You'll see it less than once every 400 hands though because not everyone will see a flop with every pocket pair they're dealt.


Poker math is a bitch.

Poker mathS

You're not a yank!!!

Fair point. My s key is sticky, honest guv.

That reminds me, look at the options when you post to Change Colour

Damn Yankees.

The problem of "If I have a pair what are the odds of someone else having a pair in a 10 handed game" is actually quite complex and I didn't see a satisfactory answer in a long thread on twoplustwo a few years ago.

So I will approximate and say that the probability of you having a pair is .059 and at least one other player having a pair is .42.  Your chance of a set on the flop is .117 his is .082.  That all adds up to approximately once every 4000 hands I think.  6 handed about every 7000.  hmmmmm Cryptos rng needs an ovehaul.

Just had another thought - these are the odds of any set over set flop - for you to be on the wrong end of the transaction is much lower than this.