blonde poker forum

CALL OR FOLD??

Just interested to hear some opinions please....

Thanks

PokerStars Game #4614571532: Tournament #23016970, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2006/04/13 - 17:57:03 (ET)
Table '23016970 7' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: GtownGambler (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: speed420 (940 in chips)
Seat 3: lazerlazz (1590 in chips)
Seat 4: atakmortal (1440 in chips)
Seat 5: bigstacks11 (1270 in chips)
Seat 6: Rivsec (1430 in chips)
Seat 7: kpeddie2010 (1700 in chips)
Seat 8: phatj420 (2160 in chips)
Seat 9: guldus (1470 in chips)
phatj420: posts small blind 10
guldus: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Rivsec [Tc Ts]
GtownGambler: calls 20
speed420: folds
lazerlazz: folds
atakmortal: folds
bigstacks11: calls 20
Rivsec: raises 80 to 100
kpeddie2010: raises 80 to 180
phatj420: folds
guldus: folds
GtownGambler: calls 160
bigstacks11: folds
Rivsec: calls 80
*** FLOP *** [Th 9h Ah]
GtownGambler: bets 1320 and is all-in

call as quick as you can. I cant ever imagine folding here in those tournies, ever. especially on the first level.

Calllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

In these its just as likely to be the bare  Kh as a made flush

even if it is you have redraws to a house

those 180 runners $20 jobbies are a long slog....get chipped up or get out would be my aim!

Call for me too, it looks more like top pair and scared of a flush draw or the naked  Kh than anything else.

 ;iagree;

u have to call see flop and decide from there

i have already done that!!

The guy has gone all in on the flop

sorry, call

and call i certainly did....

Rivsec: calls 1250 and is all-in
kpeddie2010: folds
*** TURN *** [Th 9h Ah] [Kh]
*** RIVER *** [Th 9h Ah Kh] [6c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
GtownGambler: shows [Td Jh] (a flush, Ace high)
Rivsec: shows [Tc Ts] (three of a kind, Tens)
GtownGambler collected 3090 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3090 | Rake 0
Board [Th 9h Ah Kh 6c]
Seat 1: GtownGambler showed [Td Jh] and won (3090) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 2: speed420 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: lazerlazz folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: atakmortal folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: bigstacks11 folded before Flop
Seat 6: Rivsec showed [Tc Ts] and lost with three of a kind, Tens
Seat 7: kpeddie2010 (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 8: phatj420 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: guldus (big blind) folded before Flop

This is not a bad beat thread (although it obviously was!)

However - when i am calling, i know that there is a chance he has a made flush (albeit a low one to make it a push there) or he is drawing so that means i am gonna lose 1 in 3ish times.  Adding these up and maybe other combinations like trip aces probably make it a 50-50

Knowing all that do i really want to put my whole tourney on the line in level 1 to calling an all in.  unless i am the aggressor and have fold equity there is a strong case for folding?

If this was not a $20 180 tourney on stars but the 1st level of a €4000 EPT at the Vic would your answer still be call?  Am i not better off waiting for better opportunities.  A double up doesnt even mean i am gonna make the final able at this stage!

Really appreciate everyone's views.

Thanks

nope.. no case for folding here in this tourney

you dont just see a naked heart of a set of aces.. you see all sorts of filth. Black QQ/KK, Ax no heart, straight draw no heart, you really see a lot of filth in the early levels. You have too much equity against a typical push here to ever consider folding

Also, I dislike the terms "my whole tourney life" as if its a travesty if you get knocked out. These things run 24 hrs a day, if you lose, you enter another one. So many people turn down +EV shots because "its only level 1", they are just churning equity down the drain.

As for the "double up doesn't even mean I make the final table" comment, well you do realise you have to get chips sometime rite? and how can you ever win more then 'as much as you have in your stack'? its a 100% chip improvement, it gets no better then that.. and winning here might mean you are never literally all-in for the rest of the tourney. Turning down fantastic chances to accumulate chips NOW in the hopes of getting better chances later is a fallicy. There is a phrase "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".... and it applies to situations like this. You have a massive equity edge against his range NOW, dont fold and HOPE to get an edge later.

and the same should apply in the WPT/EPT/WSOP because if you fold in this spot with the advantage you have against his range of hands then the comp is too big for you and you are playing scared.

totalise - you make my point here by saying its only $20 - what about if its level 1 of an EPT major which is typically the same size field.  Do you come to the same answer?  Im not so sure?

I agree in a $20 game its a call coz who cares as another 180 starts in 15 mins BUT this cant be the way to play poker as it doesnt exactly train you for the big ones which is where we all want to be.....

If I come to the assumption that making a call is +EV (which is always the underlying factor in any decision i choose to make), then I will make the call whether its the WSOP or a game for straws at my nans house. The buyin should only matter to the extent of evaluating whether or not your hand is good, once you think it is (or isn't), the decision is trivially easy no matter the entry fee. (in my opinion). The key is having the clarity of mind to objectively come to that decision

As for the way to play poker, I have always gone by the maxim that you play the style that is most profitable at whatever level you are playing. What works in $20 tournies wont work at the WSOP, but consequently, what works in the WSOP wont always work in the $20 tournies. 

Tighty - what i am saying (EVEN THOUGH I DID CALL HERE!!) is that surely in a 180 field EPT (forget the WSOP main -event - the field is so big that you have to take risks and get lucky the whole time) there are better opportunities than potentially going broke 0 mins after you have sat down.

Its a long way to go and how many guys that double up in the first 10 mins actually make it to the final table - you know that you can play solid poker and choose YOUR OWN slots to accumulate chips rather than calling someelse's ALL IN on level 1

I am not advocating folding to anyone's all in unless you reckon you have a 70% chance or better of winning - but im just saying so early isit worth it?

I think this contradicts what fossilman once put on 2+2 about the best time to take a risk and double up is level 1 as you are so far from the money its worth taking the chance as it sets you up.

From experience - most of my final table appearances and there have been a few at high buy-ins have come from accumulating rather than taking a big risk on level 1 and going for broke.  Maybe thats just me - but Tightend i reckon its the same for you looking at some of your posts

yes you are right about my "historic" style

However at the recent Luton festival I went to war with a flopped straight in the second level and got done. I just don't think I am laying down too many sets on the flopin comps of whatever size. A few maybe, but not many


I still maintain that I would lump it in here in the WPT/EPT. Lets face it I have no edge over the field so I am going to have to win with these minimal advantages in hands such as these.


 

No, there are often so many idiots early on, if you don't take there chips they they'll go to someone who can actually play and it'll be a lot harder to accumulate. Here I'd guess the chance of Matey already having the flush to be incredibly low. Secondly, you don't necessarily 'know' you'll get a better situation, you've played here to hit your set, stick it in man!! ;)

I disagree with this, yes he has hit his set, but it’s now possible it’s up against a royal draw a straight, and already made flush a draw to a flush. I don’t disagree with the call, just the willy nilly way it’s been said to call.

If you like to gamble then go ahead and make the call, but for me in this spot I look at how much I have invested first,. How many hands beat mine, am I ahead maybe.

I have very little invested with a reasonable size stack left, you will find better spots to put your chips in, It’s a tourney ffs not a race. You show me someone that keeps putting his chips in on a maybe, and I’ll show you someone that don’t make many finals…

I call here 100% of the time, and so do every single one of my friends, and we certainly make more then our fair share (by a pretty huge margin) of finals

I assert that anyone who thinks their advantage over the field is so immense that they can throw away a set in this tourney against that bet, is deluding themselves.

If you want more knowledgable opinions, you can search google for posts from Raymer/Sklansky/Paul Phillips who have all asserted many times that they would call on the first hand of a $10k tourney if they had a 55% shot. If its good enough for them, then it certainly is good enough for anyone on this board.

OK LMAO

your lucid and reasoned response has swayed me. If you dont believe me, please do search the google archives and see what they say. Its not like the information is hidden

Stop being so condescending and opinionated.
If you Raymer and all your mates wanna take an early bath claiming +EV that’s fine I never said it was a bad call.
But if anyone chooses to fold and play a bit more poker, then there’s nothing wrong with a fold also.

Incase you didn’t know this analysis board is for peoples opinions, not the law set in stone.

Ok so you have invested 180 chips and have 1250 back and are faced with a call for the rest of your chips with trips on a horrible board.
You have 7 outs if you are behind to the flush (not likely given the allin) and your oppo has 8 outs assuming he has a heart (hard to see how he can push without a heart).

So for me you are favourite unless he's open ended too (i would push if i were).

So firstly i ask myself am i in front?  Yes i think i am.
Secondly what are his chances of outdrawing me?  Quite high actually.
Thirdly do i want to risk my chips this early on?  For this buyin and this comp yes, i do it all the time.
I am happy to take on these situations early on in these comps, but there is no way on earth i would do it in a bigger comp (EPT, WPT etc.) simply because i am so marginal against a drawing hand and once you factor in the chance of him having made his hand or that he has a lot more outs it simply isn't worth the risk!

You can call all day long here, resting assured that you're caning a pusher's range on this board.

The only pushing hand i can see ahead of you here is a baby flush but much more likely he has 2 pair, top pair with flush draw, some sort of combination draw with the flush or another flush draw.

You've got a pretty significatn edge over all these hands bar the small made flush which is perhaps the least likely hand.

If you fold , you're just giving up chips, but it might be worth it if you have a last longer bet with someone.

Agree with everything Totalise has said in this thread. Folding here would be nothing short of insanity!