blonde poker forum

I was bit bored with my staple diet of hu matches last night and had a crack at a few SNG's instead...

I haven't played very many of these and came across a situation which is obviously pretty common but I was actually flummoxed at my best course of action.

What should I do here:

Payout is: 1st $945 2nd $567 3rd $378.

Blinds are 300-600 with a running 50.

Guy on the button has 700. I have 1500 and the sb. The BB has the rest of the chips..11300.

Next hand the short stack will be allin for the big blind.

He folds on the button, and I have A9o in the small blind.

Should I move allin to increase my chances of winning the SNG or pass to ensure my best possible shot at 2nd place?

I will post what I did later...

Move em in Keith.

The difference between 2nd and 3rd prize money is small.  A double up gives you a little more hope of turning it around.

I was gonna say depends if you wanna try and win or not but i think MrMoves has a good point.

 ;iagree;

On the bubble would be a different idea.

All in.

You could always pass here and limp the next hand. That way you are more likely to get 2nd and you could end up with 2900+ if you catch a nice flop/cards.

Say you limped. Big stack SB goes all in and you cant call. BB wins the pot. Now you are short stacked and in the BB and with no chance.

Why would the big stack move in with trash?

If I limped and the big stack moved in, got called by the short stack i would also call. If the big stack wins then i get 2nd, if the short stack wins then either he is lucky enough to get a monster hand when he needed it or the big stack moved in with crap and i will be in the side pot with him. If i lose that then i'm out but if i win then i'm back to where i started except that now i'm the short stack. If i win the hand i'm 2nd with enough chips to make a decent challenge. It's not great and i'm not against moving in on the big stack this hand but if i think he is likely to call me with a wide range of hands then i won't take the chance.

Say the BB wakes up with a monster. Just because he is all in, doesn't mean he cannot have a better hand than the bigstacked SB. The BB having a better hand isn't the point though. He could have a worst hand than the SB and still win and if the BB does win, then next hand you will be allin in the BB.

i guess you need to evaluate what you think you're chance of winning are if you do go all in and end up with 2,900 vs his 10,000.  you wont' have that much left with blinds as they are - bit of a crapshoot.  I'd be inclined to go for the extra value between 2nd and 3rd, as I think for me this would have more + ev than the all in move, given there's a fair chance you won't win the all in anyway.  you've no doubt got a very strong heads up game so it's probably + ev for you to take a chance at the all in....

A good big stack doesn't need a fanatastic hand to go all-in there though.

To be honest, if you passed the previous hand then limped on the button there, as a big stack I'd be in with any of the top 163 premium hands.

The equity to be gained by implicitly colluding against an all-in player when you have a 10k + stack there is so small as to be negligible. Far better idea to lump it in (as the big stack) and hope to triple your money against the all-in pklayer once the weak limper folds.

I do this all the time and limper left with less than 1k chips typically calls it a stoopid play. I don't care, I don't play sit n gos to make the other players think I'm the buisness.
I've come for the cash.

Tank,

Are you all in with A9 or are you waiting for a better spot? ;)

I push, working on the maths just now.

Fair enough, i take your points.

I am not against pushing however, I think you are almost guaranteed 2nd place and if you push you offer the big stack 1200 for a 2400 pot. If he calls and you lose, you've lost $180. That's just the way i see it.

Here's my analysis on why to push with A9 there.


Assuming that big stack knows what he's doing and will call with any two, Your A9 has a 60% chance of taking down a 3k pot down against the lage stacks random hand.

If we pass, we're left with 1.2k.

Your 1.2k does not gurantee you second place.
Big blind actually has a greater than 50-50 chance of surviving the next hand. 50-50 if it was guarnateed that you would fold and big stack would make up the blinds, thats not guaranteed though.

The possibility of you being dealt a premium enough hand to play and contribute to a greater likelyhood of big blind being eliminated (where he can still win the pot) is more than negated by the chance that the large stack might give him a walk. (as he wins the 1k chips 100% of the time when this happens)

Large stacks can get cheeky like this, giving the smallest stack a walk if they're dealt pisch, knowing theres a good chance they might pick up the blinds next hand. (More true with 4 left than 3, and you won't really be folding anything in your big blind the next hand, but thats not to say large stack won't walk the other guy this time)

So its a case of working out the equitys, here's where the math stops and the educated guess work comes in. (In fact its all pretty much educated guess work)




With 3k agianst 10k and 600 stacks, your chance of finishing 3rd place is maybe 15%, 2nd place is 65% and 1st place is 25%

This gives us tournament equity of $660 when we win the pot with A9
and $378 when we lose it (3rd place)

Weighted together, A9 being 60% against random holding, this gives us around $550 in tournament equity for pushing.



When we have 1.2k against 11.7k and 600, your chance of 3rd is 35%, 57% for 2nd and perhaps 8% for 1st

This gives us around a $530 equity for the fold. ($20 less)



So the % chances of finishing in each place are just a judgement on the stacks and the position of the blinds, but I don't think they're too far out from reality.
Not only does the push gain us $20  in equity, but this model was worked on the assumption that the large stack would call your raise. Its a slim possibility that he'll fold, but if there is the slightest chance, then that'll bump the +EV for the push with A9 even more.

All in on hand strength

A9 three handed is as strong as AA on a full table / Say you were just before the bubble. Would you fold AA in the SB against a big stack BB for the same reason.

I guess that given your hesitation the clock folded you.

I would play the next hand blind (as much as you can in online poker :D). Limp and call any preflop raise.

It's +2.8% against 100% calling range. +2.9% against 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs. Very easy push.

Where does the +2.8% come from?

LOL u play sng's for a living and don't know???? Yeah right

I seriously don't. I thought A9 is 60% to hold up against a random 2 card holding.

2.8% of the prize pool.

http://sitngo-analyzer.com/ (http://sitngo-analyzer.com/)

Yeah so I'm a donk who can't even use simple software properly. :blonde:

errr putting the correct hand into sng pt if BB is calling with any 2 then it's a -EV push you are losing -0.3% of the prize pool. To get it to +EV you need to put BB on a calling range of 87% (which is 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T2+,92+,84o+,82s+,74o+,72s+,64o+,63s+,54o,53s+,43s) or less.

sng pt doesn't work great with tiny stacks I'm afraid. However it's saying if we put BB on 100% calling range we should only be pushing 88+.

sorry for the false info.

I'm sorry if i seemed argumentative earlier, that wasn't my intention. I've had a long think about this.

I went to the wizard of odds and he says that A-9o will be best in a two handed game 59.45% of the time and will draw 2.65% of the time (=62.1%).

Using my suggestion, all three of you would be in the pot and would each expect to win it 1/3rd of the time.
Of the times the short stack wins, you will win the side pot half the time. You can then say it is likely that you will be allin next hand (it's your BB) and win that half the time.
I realise these are simplistic assumptions but what else can i do.

Therefore,
1/6th of the time you will lose both the side pot and the main pot, and
1/12th of the time you will lose the main pot, win the side pot and then lose the allin on the next hand.

Hence, i reckon you have a 3/12 (25%) chance of coming 3rd using this method. If you choose to ignore what is going to happen the following hand (this hand plus 2) then you can say 33% of the time you will be worse off.
By lumping it in with the A-9o you are giving yourself a 37.9% chance of finishing 3rd.

Pls feel free to pick holes in this.

Argumentative, never.

It's all in the spirit of good debate. If no-one ever took a contrary opinion we'd never get anything hashed out.

The forum would just be all well done and happy birthday.

Anyway, in the spirit of debate, you say by lumping it in with A9 you're giving yourself a 37.9% chance of finishing 3rd. I'll attempt to show that you'll finish 3rd a lot more often than that (but it's still the right move)

First of all a wee hole to pick, 59.45% to win the pot, 2.65% of the time to split, means that you will get something back 62.1% of the time. However your equity will only be  60.775% (adding half of the split pot % rather than 100%)

That all doesn't really matter though, for the sake of simplicity I'll say A9 will win 60% of the time.

So 40 times out of 100 you'll finish 3rd right there (40 x 100%)
60 times out of 100 you'll have 3k chips vs your opponents 10k and 600

This is where the estimate comes in, I think in this situation, you'll still place 3rd 15% of the time.


So 40 times out of 100 you'll finish 3rd right there (40 x 100%)
60 times out of 100 you'll finish 3rd 15% of the time (60 x 15%)

To get a weighted average of the amount of times you'd finish 3rd you'll add it all up and divide by 100.

40 x 100 = 4000
60 x 15 = 900

4900/100 = 49%

So I reckon you'll be finishing 3rd around half the time (49%) when pushing.

Its the much higher chance of finishing 1st place that pushing gives you that makes it the right move though. See previous post for (perhaps poorly laid out) explanation as to why.

Some computer program puts it at +2.8% ($53) of the prize pool.
I get it as +1.1% ($20)

It's maybe right but I don't care, I still don't like it for reasons I shant get into.

Push.

Aaaayyyyyaaarrrrr

I love it when Wardonkey agrees.

It means I'm probably right.  :D

Well, I did push.

My main fault in poker is my inability to make EV calculations quickly and accurately at the table.

I felt it very likely he would call if I push (I guestimated he would call with 75% of holdings).

My instinct said I should push.

So I pushed.

He called with A2.

Horray!

He hit a deuce.

Boo!

Nice to know I was right!

Interesting thread, cheers guys!

Great thread, i love the indepth stuff.