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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: rivered on May 02, 2006, 09:48:44 AM



Title: what should I do?
Post by: rivered on May 02, 2006, 09:48:44 AM
82 player £20 buyin at gutshot satellite to the £500 event this Saturday.  1,500 starting chips, down to around 20 players, blinds are 150-300, so average stack is around 6,000, and top 3 only get a ticket, with vouchers towards the main event for 4th place.

I'm on the BB and I'm chip leader with around £20k.  UTG goes all in for his remaining 2,050 chips.  I've not been at the table long, but the way I see it, he's fairly short stacked, and there's been a lot of people going all in in the early positions as there's not much room for manoeuvre with the blinds creeping up - it's a bit of a 'first-to-act-fest'.  It's folded around to me, so it's costing me 1,750 in to a 2,500 pot to play (as i've already put in the BB) with no one else in the pot.  I have Q3 o/s.  Should I call?


Title: Re: what should I do?
Post by: jezza777 on May 02, 2006, 12:17:35 PM
No way its too much and q3 is too weak. I mean you can widen your range against desperate shorties but Q3?


Title: Re: what should I do?
Post by: rivered on May 02, 2006, 01:05:29 PM
I called.  I know what you mean... on the face of it Q3 felt very weak but....my reasoning - the call represents 60:40 ish pot odds in his favour.  I think he most likely has Ax.  That way he only has 1 overcard, and I get roughly the right odds, for a tenth of my stack.  I was trying to build a big stack before the final table to avoid the crapshoot that would ensue.

More comments with reasoning though please - this was a real borderline call and I dwelled up for ages!  I haven't got to an odds calculator since the game so I'm not sure what the exact odds were for something like A7 vs Q3....

btw he had Ak... but I won...  and he got rather upset and starting moaning at me and asked how i could call... that's why I'm asking - i didn't think it was such a bad call... i think my reasons were valid... but I'm still learning!


Title: Re: what should I do?
Post by: ifm on May 02, 2006, 01:17:55 PM
IMO there is nothing wrong with the call, though i would probably fold purely because Q3 is a shockingly bad hand headsup.
I would call with pretty much any 2 cards that are close to each other i.e. 64, 57 etc.
It's a sat and therefore the whole point is to knock players out, a lot of players just do not understand the strategy needed for sats, where it is less important to build chips and the onus is on reducing the field.


Title: Re: what should I do?
Post by: SupaMonkey on May 02, 2006, 01:54:41 PM
I called.  I know what you mean... on the face of it Q3 felt very weak but....my reasoning - the call represents 60:40 ish pot odds in his favour.  I think he most likely has Ax.  That way he only has 1 overcard, and I get roughly the right odds, for a tenth of my stack.  I was trying to build a big stack before the final table to avoid the crapshoot that would ensue.

I understand but 60:40 is the best case scenario. You could be dominated or he could have had a pp between your Q and 3 and then you would have been approx 27:73.


Title: Re: what should I do?
Post by: Nem on May 02, 2006, 01:58:47 PM
IMO you should have folded.


Title: Re: what should I do?
Post by: jezza777 on May 02, 2006, 02:36:07 PM
utg is definately in push or fold territory but against his range I couldnt call with q3 for 10% of my stack the price is just too high.


Title: Re: what should I do?
Post by: Suited_Jock on May 02, 2006, 02:43:58 PM
IMO you should have folded.


Title: Re: what should I do?
Post by: ACE2M on May 02, 2006, 05:13:51 PM
I would fold for the sake of table position status. It's perfect to have a desperate stack in the bb when you have large stack in sb, players will be less inclined to steal your blinds here without quality hands and you get to take him on in the blinds if the cards work out at a later juncture. Keep him alive.


Title: Re: what should I do?
Post by: rivered on May 02, 2006, 07:16:59 PM
cheers all, quite a varied bunch of answers with varied reasons... guess it's one of those with no 'correct' answer...


Title: Re: what should I do?
Post by: byronkincaid on May 02, 2006, 08:12:03 PM
At least nobody's gonna try to steal your blind now.


Title: Re: what should I do?
Post by: Ironside on May 03, 2006, 03:44:36 AM
i would of called as it would give off a great image and you know the shorties wont be pushing on your BB in future without big hands


Title: Re: what should I do?
Post by: TillerMaN on May 04, 2006, 01:00:40 AM
I just want to say that there is a "clear" right answer and that is to fold. There is no decision here, it is really incorrect to call in my opinion.

Even if you give the short stack a hand range of the 50% best starting hands you will still need pot odds of 1.6-1 just to break even on the call but you are only getting 1.4-1 pot odds. So even in this perfect scenario where your opponent is pushing hands like J7o and T6s you will still be losing money on the call. He needs to be pushing with 60%+ of all starting hands to turn this into a slightly profitable call which is HIGHLY unlikely.




Title: Re: what should I do?
Post by: Highstack on May 04, 2006, 11:03:30 AM
Standard pass.

This is not a tournament that you need to win. It is a satellite where third gets the same prize as first. With 20 players remaning you have 20k in chips and no reason to even get involved. There are only 120k in total chips why double someone up easily and risk any part of your stak? 2k is not short stacked and you could be dominated or a big dog. I am all for calling the shorties with odds and for a small value. If it was just say upto around 600 to call, then I might be in, but 1750 into this pot is far too much risk.

Why do you assume Ax from UTG? He is in no desperate rush with 2k and can at least wait for these blinds to run through him before he needs to make a move (particularly from UTG).