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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: cambo on May 09, 2007, 02:12:45 PM



Title: look for a better spot?
Post by: cambo on May 09, 2007, 02:12:45 PM
£15 tourney with 1 rebuy and a top up. 7k chips to start with 11k for the rebuy and 15k for the top up blinds 100/200 to start with then 200/400 etc 30 min levels everyone takes there rebuy/top ups after an hr.

2nd hand into the 400/800 level im sitting above average with 52k chips. im on the bb with  Kc Qc. 3 limpers utg utg+2 and the sb.

i check flop comes Ac Qh Tc. i make a 2/3rds of the pot size bet after the sb checks. utg folds then utg+2 moves in for 24k sb folds

now the guy whos just moved in is the worst player at the table -hes just got lucky on the last hand to hit a miricle set on the last card hes callin with 88 with 3 overs on flop and called a big turn bet aswell .

id lost count of the amount of times he limped in with a raggy ace then check called all through the streets only to have the worst hand as i said he only has chips at all cos of the last hand.

this hand i put him on ace 7 -8-9 maybe a10 some shitty ace anyway

from an odds point of view if he has what ive mentioned above im a slight fav well maybe not with a10 but should you call here for half ur stack ? im thinking ive got any jack any king any queen any club.

whats been seving me well recently is refusing to flip for a decent portion of my chips until the blinds get big enough in the past id happily race for half my stack with ak v jj half way through a touney but ive been finding it much more profitable just to keep building from small pots and from when im massive fav.

after a bit of thought i called and he turned over ace jack which stood up. any thoughts on the play? hes deff gonna donk his chips off at some point would you take the gamble against this player at this stage?

2 hands later he put me out with kq when i had 2 red kings 4 spades on the board 50p

thanks




Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: Newmanseye on May 09, 2007, 02:35:16 PM
you put your chips in the pot mate, if you have him on a shitty ace, then you are a favorite to win with the outs you have,


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: cambo on May 09, 2007, 02:45:19 PM
thats what im saying im not fav its 50/50 would you still call with the cards face up against this player?


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: Newmanseye on May 09, 2007, 02:53:07 PM
thats what im saying im not fav its 50/50 would you still call with the cards face up against this player?
#

eh? 

if you have him on Ace 7 - 9   you have 17 outs! with 2 cards to come you are 57% to win here, ship em in!


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: cambo on May 09, 2007, 02:57:15 PM
with him having ace jack hes a slight fav 1 0r 2%


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: kinboshi on May 09, 2007, 03:00:02 PM
with him having ace jack hes a slight fav 1 0r 2%

With the money already in there, are you getting the right odds to call?



Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: Newmanseye on May 09, 2007, 03:02:03 PM
Yhe but you said your read was for Ace 7 - 9, not ace jack, and even if he has ace Jack I still call as you only lost 1 out.  His Jack helps you as youmake a straight and he has 2 pair,

Cambo, you have the royal straight Flush draw with a pair and a live card, all the money is in here. insta call.


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: cambo on May 09, 2007, 03:06:40 PM
with him having ace jack hes a slight fav 1 0r 2%

With the money already in there, are you getting the right odds to call?



am i tho ? theres 8k in the pot after my bet on the flop and its another 21k for me to call, im pretty shit with odds


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: cambo on May 09, 2007, 03:09:30 PM
Yhe but you said your read was for Ace 7 - 9, not ace jack, and even if he has ace Jack I still call as you only lost 1 out.  His Jack helps you as youmake a straight and he has 2 pair,

Cambo, you have the royal straight Flush draw with a pair and a live card, all the money is in here. insta call.

i still dont know if it was the right call against this certain player against a better player or even against the same player at a later stage id make it instantly. i was just thinking about being able to run the table and go chip leader in the tourny


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: kinboshi on May 09, 2007, 03:11:59 PM
What sort of flop do you want to see with  Kc Qc?  Surely this isn't far off the best flop for you.

You lose this, and you're still in with plenty of chips to play with.  You win, and you're in an even stronger position.  You're not a huge dog to any hand, and you're favourite against many.  You have to call.



Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: cambo on May 09, 2007, 03:16:18 PM
im just questioning my play against this player cos hes donking off chips left right and centre and taking a 50/50 with him so early in the tourney might not be the best strategy as there will deff be more favourable situations to come percentage wise


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: Royal Flush on May 09, 2007, 03:36:48 PM
im just questioning my play against this player cos hes donking off chips left right and centre and taking a 50/50 with him so early in the tourney might not be the best strategy as there will deff be more favourable situations to come percentage wise

Assuming someone doesn't get there first.

He could be drawing dead with a lower fd.


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: KingPoker on May 09, 2007, 04:37:39 PM
Absolutely and positively made the right call,
1) You are getting the odds to call,
2) You have hit what can only be the sort of flop you would want to see with your hand (pair, nut FD + nut SD!)
3) And your playing against a very weak opponent who could have shit.

Even if you donk off half your stack you will still have +30BB's with the blinds at 400/800.
Get it in there you mug  :)up


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: dime on May 09, 2007, 04:53:31 PM
I think if you were calling off all your chips here it would be a hard choice but as you still have a nice stack left if you loose and given the player your up agaisnt I agree there is no point holding back here. Its one of the those chioces you feel stupid when it dosen't come off but a king when it dose, you just have stop yourself from making any stupid mistakes when your stilli in the game but lost a big hand.


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: AlexMartin on May 09, 2007, 05:23:00 PM
Hate the chip dynamics here. But to fold is a sin.


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: GlasgowBandit on May 09, 2007, 07:43:10 PM

Cambo soon as i see hiim reaching for chips i insta call infact you cant bet mine are in the pot first.

Was it the young boy looks like he's just out of school?  The play you describe sounds like a mug I came up against a few weeks back there was a raise re-raise and an all in and he called with A2 for 85% of his chips claiming to be going for a flush pre-flop.  Only  for his A to hit on the turn and crush my KK!

lol - next time though!


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: Boba Fett on May 09, 2007, 07:51:38 PM
I think its very marginal, a good arguement could be made either way.  Yes you are a favourite in the percentages and will have plenty of chips left if you lose and be in great shape if you win but as soon as I see Billy saying he insta calls Id fold.  Although ur favourite you're still behind and have to hit, if you give this guy more chips it could be tougher to get them from him if he has a bigger stack.  Also, if he;s such a mug you'll get his chips anyway, no need to race like this if you have a clear edge IMO


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: Royal Flush on May 09, 2007, 08:05:47 PM
I think its very marginal, a good arguement could be made either way.  Yes you are a favourite in the percentages and will have plenty of chips left if you lose and be in great shape if you win but as soon as I see Billy saying he insta calls Id fold.  Although ur favourite you're still behind and have to hit, if you give this guy more chips it could be tougher to get them from him if he has a bigger stack.  Also, if he;s such a mug you'll get his chips anyway, no need to race like this if you have a clear edge IMO

Have to agree, calling when you are confident you are favourite getting 1.37-1 is pure madness, have your head checked!

Back in the real world, your edge on a field is never big enough for you to pass this, no matter how good you think you are.


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: kinboshi on May 09, 2007, 08:13:39 PM

I think its very marginal, a good arguement could be made either way.  Yes you are a favourite in the percentages and will have plenty of chips left if you lose and be in great shape if you win but as soon as I see Billy saying he insta calls Id fold.  Although ur favourite you're still behind and have to hit, if you give this guy more chips it could be tougher to get them from him if he has a bigger stack.  Also, if he;s such a mug you'll get his chips anyway, no need to race like this if you have a clear edge IMO


If you're favourite, you're favourite.  Whether you have to hit, or are already ahead is irrelevant.  The hand is done when all five cards are on the board - and if you're favourite to be ahead then, you're favourite to be ahead.


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: Boba Fett on May 09, 2007, 08:27:33 PM
I think its very marginal, a good arguement could be made either way.  Yes you are a favourite in the percentages and will have plenty of chips left if you lose and be in great shape if you win but as soon as I see Billy saying he insta calls Id fold.  Although ur favourite you're still behind and have to hit, if you give this guy more chips it could be tougher to get them from him if he has a bigger stack.  Also, if he;s such a mug you'll get his chips anyway, no need to race like this if you have a clear edge IMO

Have to agree, calling when you are confident you are favourite getting 1.37-1 is pure madness, have your head checked!

Back in the real world, your edge on a field is never big enough for you to pass this, no matter how good you think you are.
And back in the real world he got his money in on a draw and lost.....

BTW-I probs call too (after having a dig at Billy the fish), if the guy is as big a mug as Cambo says then he's likely to double you up when you are ahead rather than drawing for it if you decide to fold.


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: AlexMartin on May 09, 2007, 10:54:50 PM
I think its very marginal, a good arguement could be made either way.  Yes you are a favourite in the percentages and will have plenty of chips left if you lose and be in great shape if you win but as soon as I see Billy saying he insta calls Id fold.  Although ur favourite you're still behind and have to hit, if you give this guy more chips it could be tougher to get them from him if he has a bigger stack.  Also, if he;s such a mug you'll get his chips anyway, no need to race like this if you have a clear edge IMO

Have to agree, calling when you are confident you are favourite getting 1.37-1 is pure madness, have your head checked!

Back in the real world, your edge on a field is never big enough for you to pass this, no matter how good you think you are.

lol.  I fold.


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: Newmanseye on May 09, 2007, 11:47:26 PM
Boba, hows the Dominos training coming along?

The money goes in on this flop, no question, no doubt in my mind, flushy's, Kin's, Phil Gordons, Doyle Brubsons and Daniel Negraneau, Read a poker book and see.

Even Lou Krieger aggrees al the money goes in here!

Mug!!


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: Smart Money on May 10, 2007, 08:50:17 AM
[And back in the real world he got his money in on a draw and lost.....

The thing is whether he is drawing, or whether he already has a "made hand" is completely irrelevant. The fact that he's a favourite (or at least, that he thinks he is) is what's important.

********

Anyway, as it was played out this is an easy call. However, surely a check/raise all-in is the best way to play this hand? It's unlikely to get checked around (and even if it is, then you can't be worried about giving away a free card) and this play gives you a good deal of fold equity too.


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: Smart Money on May 10, 2007, 08:53:30 AM

I think its very marginal, a good arguement could be made either way.  Yes you are a favourite in the percentages and will have plenty of chips left if you lose and be in great shape if you win but as soon as I see Billy saying he insta calls Id fold.  Although ur favourite you're still behind and have to hit, if you give this guy more chips it could be tougher to get them from him if he has a bigger stack.  Also, if he;s such a mug you'll get his chips anyway, no need to race like this if you have a clear edge IMO


If you're favourite, you're favourite.  Whether you have to hit, or are already ahead is irrelevant.  The hand is done when all five cards are on the board - and if you're favourite to be ahead then, you're favourite to be ahead.


Sorry. My first sentence repeats what kinboshi said. I had missed his comment.


Title: Re: look for a better spot?
Post by: cambo on May 10, 2007, 02:42:22 PM
cheers for the feedback lads