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***** Hand History for Game 5982493641 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $22 USD Buy-in Trny: 33504140 Level: 6   Blinds(300/600) - Saturday, May 19, 05:34:40 ET 2007
Table Speed #1330099 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 5: Markpl111 ( 7,985 )
Seat 4: pokerjerie ( 8,410 )
Seat 8: ILike_One_9 ( 1,860 )
Seat 7: xxcrackerxx1 ( 1,745 )
Trny: 33504140 Level: 6
Blinds(300/600)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero[  Qc Qd ]
xxcrackerxx1 folds.
ILike_One_9 folds.
pokerjerie is all-In.
pokerjerie: lol
Hero ???????????

Ok call or fold.

Reads: Up until the last hand i have pushing every hand but managed to push 62o into aq to double pokerjerie (hence his lol in hh). He has been open pushing quite a bit since the blinds have been 100/200.

call

gl

what a sick situation.
case for both
call-excellent chance to win tourny outright
fold- no need to risk at all, top 3 finish secured

id prob call, due to the fact i multi table and no one game is that important

NEVER a fold. for a call here to be EV- you're putting him on a push range of 5% or less!

Probably one for the sitngo experts, but I'd say this is a call if only to send a message to the villain (who you will probably meet again) that you will call in this situation if you have an advantage.

I call.

Seat 5: Markpl111 ( 7,985 )
Seat 4: pokerjerie ( 8,410 )
Seat 8: ILike_One_9 ( 1,860 )
Seat 7: xxcrackerxx1 ( 1,745 )


i think there is a case for folding, but im not in favour of it personally.
for example say he has ace5, about 70-30 i think, but isnt that a huge risk for you? as if you fold id say its 90% u cash, if not higher.
as i said before i dont consider one sng to be that important in the grand scheme, but what if it was the bubble of a sat to a big live comp,insta fold?

call and win the tourney

call

The situation in a sateliite is completely different due to the flat payout.

in a sat its an easy fold as the 2 big stacks should be taking in turns to take out the shorter stacks

in a sat there is a case for folding AA with the stacks the way they are

Ok which idiot voted for fold in my poll.

I confess it was me and i actually did fold in the game after tanking for 30 secs while i was 6 tabling.. I will give my reasoning and see what others think.

I am great believer in ICM as a guide to play sng's virtually perfect and all top sng players would agree that as a basis for sng's it as a good a mathematical model as you will get. This is actually a very powerful example of how ICM show that sng's requries quite counterintutive thinking.

In this hand we have two shortstacks are likely to bubble very soon, with me being 2nd in chips. We will bubble if we lose this hand and if we win we have 4/5 chips in play.

So by calling we are get 0 or we have an expectation of $91. By folding our expectation is about $67. I will show the maths behind these figures if anyone is desperate.

So in calling we have to come out better than $67 on average to make it a good call, by some quick maths we have to be a 74% favourite to win this hand to justify this. That basically says if he show 1 overcard we are in the deep stuff as we will only be 70/30.

After plugging this sngpt (icm calculator),  pokerjerie has to be pushing more than top 45% to justify calling here which means he has to open push q4o or 108s. I personally don't think he is pushing these hands i might be wrong.

This is basically a read based question and given pokerjerie made an awful call with aqo in the previous hand is not smart enough to push this wide imo. This is open to debate obviously.

Interesting hand i thought and thanks for the comment.

As an aside i would be push any two cards if i was pokerjerie here.

OMGZ SHOCK POST!!

i actually misread the hand history and thought you were one of the short stacks. give the fact i've now reworked the math then yes. its a FOLDFOLDFOLD.

unless you have his push range on 45%+.. so. the question is do you know him well enough to know he's pushing more than 45% of hands there? if you defo know he pushes any two then its a call. if this is the first time you've played him then fold. basically.

As an educational exercise I would love to see the maths on this one Longy!