blonde poker forum

Game #4149905913: Hold'em NL ($1/$2) - 2007/05/20 - 06:33:56 (DST)
Table "Donato" Seat 4 is the button.
Seat 1: -Gotcha- ($246 in chips)
Seat 2: Mischa111 ($213.75 in chips)
Seat 3: Jeneum3 ($195.50 in chips)
Seat 4: Abehjerne ($281.25 in chips)
Seat 5: Messaa ($389.50 in chips)
Seat 6: CPC06 ($225.75 in chips)
Messaa: posts small blind $1
CPC06: posts big blind $2
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to -Gotcha- [Kd Ks]
-Gotcha-: raises to $8
Mischa111: folds
Jeneum3: folds
Abehjerne: folds
Messaa: calls $7
CPC06: folds
----- FLOP ----- [3s 2s 7h]
Messaa: bets $381.50 and is all-in
-Gotcha-:

pass. I hate it but I'm sure I'll catch a flop where I can get his money later.
 if he's on Ax spades he has 11 outs so he's slightly worse than 50/50
if he has A7 spades thats 14 outs and he's slightly better than 50/50
if he has 2,2 or 3,3 you're in deep water
if he has Q,Q you've been tricked out of $8. you'll get him when you flop a set and he tanks it in

he aint got a set so your looking at a flush draw or an over pair

if your playing well within your bankroll constraints its an easy call

if your playing on scared money fold and look for a better edge

equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    55.843%     54.73%    01.11%             23300          472.50   { KdKs }
Hand 1:    44.157%     43.05%    01.11%             18325          472.50   { TT+, 77, 33-22, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As7s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, JsTs, 8s7s, 5s4s }

roughly correct? if you put 88 and 99 in I'm 63%.


Why not? I can remember a DC article where he mentions mad scandis doing this and also ariston getting busted out of a blonde comp once when someone did it to him. Is it a good way to play a set if nobody believes you have it?

i cant see hin overbetting so much with a set

maybe 50-80 as an over bet but i think its more of a stop and go play from sb rather than bb

hum i got into batsmen no 4 his BT rating is only 3000 and is a sterady batsmen so i might be able to restrict him
problem is there opener doesnt seem to be tiring 160 from 132 balls might stop him getting too far past 350 with 6 overs left and him still under 7.0 (only just)

defo fold. he knows you have a hand as you've raised from early position 4x. he's probably hit his set and hopes you have an overpair to the board. if he flops his set and theres some paint on the board he prob plays it more abc but supposed 'maniacs' actually have a winning play in the long run by shoving a set on that kind of board.

if he respects you as a good player he knows you have to lay down an over pair here.

Iron's drugs are wearing off.  New dosage required, nurse!

insta call

As Flushy is rather busy at brighton at the moment - Rookie has taken on his PHA duties- lol

Geo

standard

Call in a flash.

FYP ;)

call and get sick bag ready

In a cash game only $8 on the line - fold.

tourney - insta call

cash - pass - why bother?

Very easy fold.

First of all there's not "only $8 on the line"

There's 250 odd to be won or lost. Given the money in the pot it is not an instant decision either way.

If you're just going to type "insta call" or "insta fold" without any explanation then why bother replying to the guys question in the first place?

Anyay to try and answer the question,

Surely he has not called such a big raise with 72, 73 or 32 ?

He could have called with 22 33 or 77 hoping to hit a set but then why try to scare you away with such a ridiculous bet?

QQ, JJ or TT - Surely he'd have re-raised you pre-flop?

AA - That makes a bit of sense I suppose. Well pre-flop anyway. His post flop bet doesn't make sense whatever hand he has IMHO.

Flush/Straight draw - maybe something like 5s 6s giving him a flush draw & inside straight draw.

I'm probably swaying towards calling here to be honest

instacall

insta fold

-Gotcha-: is all-in $238
Returned uncalled bets $143.50 to Messaa
----- TURN ----- [3s 2s 7h][9h]
----- RIVER ----- [3s 2s 7h 9h][8h]
----- SHOW DOWN -----
Messaa: shows [3c 3h] (Three of a kind, Threes, Nine high)
-Gotcha-: shows [Kd Ks] (A Pair of Kings, Nine high)
Messaa collected $491 from Main pot

ul


but autoinstacall

That was fold there mate, little pot at that stage u don't have the nuts so why bother?....if it was a bluff...big deal...u'll catch him later,if not great lay down either way u win.....in a sense..... ;nemesis;

Instafold.

Easy call i think - but then again i lost 10 buyins last 2 days  ;reallyamsorry;

I lost 7 yesterday, was on crazy feces throwing monkey tilt by the end. Punched the ironing board which as well as hurting my hand, slide along the tiled floor and took a chunk out of the wall. However I was still able to think clearly enough to stick one of our daughters paintings over the top of it so the Mrs doesn't see it :)

really should start doing some sort of stop loss thing.

Ouch.  Glad it's not just me then. 

Calling there is insanity...

The reason why many push it here with the set is simple: it is so difficult for many to fold their overpairs....  That's why sets can be so profitable when one hits. or suited connectors for that matter. 

I think that running ranges like this in this spot is slightly misleading as each possible hand shoved into pokerstove is deemed equally likely whereas I would be thinking he has a big spade draw or pr and fd much more often than many of the other hands such as smaller overpairs.

For instance, how often at the tables do you see a hand like TT just pushing a massive overbet like this into the pot? Probably not too often. Also given that he will re-raise rather than just flat call preflop with  KK QQ JJ TT a certain % of the time, this slightly reduces the probablity of these hands being in his range.

Equally i would think smaller fds would turn up far less often than combo fds like 45s or A5s which you are a dog to. Running correct ranges, weighted appropriately, to show your equity, I would guess you are usually the the wrong side of a coin flip against a standard player and I think you would need to know your opponent's habits quite well to call correctly here.

(PS Also I noticed that KJs and KQs are in your opponent's range in the example you ran which seems unlikely as you have the Kx Ks :) )

You can break this situation down anyway you like, however I guarantee it is massive -EV to make a call here.

Besides, anyone pushing any sort of draw here is far more likely to check/jam than just chuck it all in as first to act. This important point seems to have been completely ignored. (Most sets would also act the same way of course, however they are not after the fold equity.)