blonde poker forum

hand from a while back... no idea who this guy is, was about 10 hands into the session, but he is a scandi so let that come into your considerations..


Seat 1: PandaEatsBambu ($1,328.00 in chips)
Seat 3: totalise ($1,040.00 in chips) DEALER
Seat 6: cbnzzz ($1,112.00 in chips)
Seat 8: Male ($1,261.75 in chips)
cbnzzz: Post SB $5.00
Male: Post BB $10.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to totalise [8s 8c]
PandaEatsBambu: Fold
totalise: Raise $35.00
cbnzzz: Fold
Male: Call $25.00
*** FLOP *** [Ts 9s 8d]
Male: Bet $40.00
totalise: Raise $125.00
Male: Call $85.00
*** TURN *** [5h]
Male: Check
totalise: Bet $200.00
Male: Call $200.00
*** RIVER *** [6h]
Male: Allin $901.75


i think all actions up to river are pretty standard. but the river play was kiinda confusing. thoughts?

It's too easy, & obvious. He's obviously not got it, & is trying to get you off.

PS - Or he may have overbet the absolute nuts.......

Seriously, I just loathe these dilemmas, "has he got it", "why has he bet so much?". I give him the benefit of the doubt on this occasion, & let it go. It's all good info for the future, which we can turn into profit. It's gonna cost me too much to find out on this occasion, but he'll keep.

what is it about the hand that makes you think he is trying to steal?

I am really undecided if he's nicking, or he's got it, & I face this dilemma constantly. I tend to shy away from these huge decisions, unless I know the player very well. I think he could be nicking, but equally, I'm suspicious that he is not. If in doubt, I Pass, which is why I suck, probably.

What makes you think he is NOT stealing?

Answer that, & my game would improve immensely, but surely, it's a "feel" thing?

I think this is a call, mainly because he is a likely to have Jx as 7x.  He could also have spades and if he had a str8 draw and spades he would have played it much more strongly on the flop.

If he's not nicking then he can only do this with JQ surely?
My problem with these types of river bets is that the decision for me was why he was just calling earlier?
He is either calling hoping to hit his flush or hoping to see a non spade, the trouble (for me) is the large overbet on the river makes me believe he missed his draws.
So i call and find out he actually had 10 10 and i was wrong everywhere!!!

These big overbets on the end are something I have spoken to totalise about before, used to struggle with them enormously...paying off nut hands because "why would he bet so big, surely he should be value betting?" was what I always thought


Now in these situations I think that foe's thinking is, with for example QJ, maybe QJ spades...is "totalsie has raised me on flop, bet out on turn, he probably has enough to call whatever I bet on the river, so why worry about the right size to value bet, I shove and he'll call"

I think its a nut type bet, and I pass usually here


There, makes me quite exploitable though huh?

Think it's more likely he has it (based on the fact that, on average, people are more frequently river pushing with, rather than without), but you are getting nearly 2 : 1 on the call.

Without any info on the player I probably fold, but it feels a bit weak.

Don't think it would take much previous to encourage a call tho.

Players dont try a massive bluff here on such a scary board. Calling here is a definite nono. He has QJ about 80% of the time here.

Some do.  But that's when you need to know the players capable and likely to do that.  Came across one recently, who would make all-in pushes with monster draws on the flop and also bluff hugely on the river when there was a scary board.  Worked very well for him, and I bided my time, waited until I had a monster and could call his huge river bet.  Unfortunately, he had the absolute nuts that time... ;ashamed;

I fold in this case without more knowledge.

I wouldn't think he had flopped a straight here. He's made little attempt to charge draws at any point, could have made a move on the turn when you've shown strength, and if a scare card had turned up his action might have been killed. Admittedly he could have been playing it cute but I don't see JQ here.

Still a straightening card has come on the river. What hands could he have been calling with ? JT? QKs/JKs AJs A7s?.....depending on if you have any information on how he plays his draws you might be able to rule out him flopping an open ender and fd as he might have been happy to get a lot of money in on the flop if he is very aggressive with his big draws, which would prob rule out all the big combo draws he may have been calling with.

If he is more conservative with his big draws ( and you are deep enough that that may be the case) then he could easily have a combo draw and the good news is most of them have missed...
But not all of them, so it's down to the player. I think information on his previous play is useful, probably vital here....how aggressive has he been? He could've had a set plan of calling with his combo draw and bluffing a river scare card whether he hits or not. If you have previous hands where he has done this then I think calling the river bet is definitely profitable as you are beating most of his missed draws...

Having played with him for 10 hands though you've no information. I would love to call this bet. I think you are beating most of his hands if he is super aggressive. I can't help thinking he has something like KJs and is making a very good bluff on the river at the perfect card.

Hands like this would have me tearing my hair out in cash. After all this waffling I still don't know what I'd do....

I'll be fascinated to find out what you did and if you found out what he had....

Im not sure he plays Jack Queen as passively as this, jack queen of spades maybe if he doesnt want to lose his foe. By the river Im thinking he has either a set( but Im not sure he plays this the way he has), has the ace jack of spades and has decided to overbet bluff hoping you cant call on what is a scary board or he has 77.

The way you have played the hand almost certainly rules out you have a seven in your hand ( you arent raising pre flop and raising the flop and firing the turn with 77 for instance so its hard to see what hand you have that you can call that  bet with other than jack queen, and he is hoping you dont have that.

I think he has played the hand like he has 77 or ace jack of spades, he led into the raiser on the flop, does he do this with a draw?

he calls your raise, would he rersise you with a monster draw such as ace jack of spades or respect your raise but calls to hit his draw?

on the turn he slows down, if he has jack queen surely this is the spot he re raises you, the spades could worry him and you have shown super strength throughout the hand, why would he just call here with jack queen?

On the end I dont think he bets that with a set, as the board is too scary, as it is for you, ive ruled out jack queen( but it is a possibility, esp if its jack queen of spades),7 jack would make it into most hand history threads but again he raises you on the turn, so ace 7 of spades is also a runner. I have him on ace jack of spades, ace seven of spades or 77.

I think I pass to be honest just coz of the size of the bet as I slightly favour 77 over ace jack of spades.

Out of interest, in the villain's shoes when would people make that all-in bet on the river with that board?  Which cards would you need to have, against which sort of opponents,  or would you never make this bet?

against tightend.

;D

I'd call Alex if he did it

Pass against some opponents


Alex.....respect your elders!!!  ;)

I've lost so much money calling big overbet all-ins on the river, eventually I employed an Oompa Loompa to punch me in the head if he ever saw me heading for the call button. His other job is to slap me in the face whenever I consider bluffing on the ipoker network. £2.50 an hour and as much chocolate as he can eat. Bargain.

 rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao


how very true

I might be missing equity by having a standard fold in these spots, but I think my experience tells me they are more often than not nut hands unless player info tells you otherwise or skews the decision to a call

These are horrible I agree, and I would reraised the flop bigger and thus bet the turn bigger. The problem with betting the absolute nuts this big here...that river was a scarecard for you, he must know that. It is a really dangerous board and QJ cannot hope to get called by the majority of your potential holdings, any QJ that wasn't double spade problably shoved the turn anyway. He hasn't been playing with you long enough to know you are particularly good. I think this is all about him deciding you can't call without QJ (of your potential holidngs) which he has ascertained from the betting you don't have. If he has the JAck of spades in his hand it makes it even more unlikely you can call. So I would go with  Js Tx  he knows he is behind but is confident you cannot call, so call and hold your breath. :).

What did the guy have Totalise?

Im curious, how can it be good info for the future if we dont know what he had?

Im not a very good cash player, in fact im absolutely rubbish lol but to me this screams of QJ, he has held back fearing a flush and when it hasnt hit and the board hasnt paired ..wham bam.. no other hand make sense, possibly 77 but I doubt it as he has to think QJ is beating him and why risk it.

I was pretty sure he didn't have QJ, it would be a pretty bad way to play it...but at the time i was stuck and pissed off and just kinda snap folded, because if he did get there on the river and I payed off like a call monkey id prolly go on tilt. He showed J9d for the bloooof and won it. Not too sure what I think about the fold, on balance I think i have to call because he is a skandi and they just cant help themselves, and the 6 I think is a slightly less scary card on balance then a 7 or a Q because only one end of the str8 draw gives him a good str8 if he has 7/x, and so I'd weight it more likely that pair+str8 draws will include a jack, like someone alluded to earlier.

thanks for the comments

Hi Suzanne,

Well, I was assuming we WOULD eventually know what he had, & Totalise knew all along. If that makes sense! Seen that way, it's an "investment" for the future.

A+

v interesting hand mate, 9 jack...eeeek.

corking bet though

Nasty.

yes, not nice to face that.

Agree - it's uncallable. Almost.

More of these please Mr Tot Sir.

yes thats true, but you cant rely on them showing their bluff most of the time, so I think Suz makes a pretty good point.



Anyways I was tinking about this hand a little more, and his river bet isnt really an overbet in terms of pot size, I only have about the pot size left in my stack, and so its a pretty natural bet size to make. If I had the $900 to cover it then it would make the dynamics of the hand slightly more interesting. One thing im interested in is whether people think his river bet in general is going to be a winning strategy, the split here seemed to be about 50/50 in terms of whether to call or not, so if thats the case then it makes his bettin pot to win pot EV neutral, but....I wonder how often a random folds a hand as strong as a set here, because thats pretty much all i was to him, and how often a random has a hand that strong.

thoughts? (and please try to ignore the fact that this time the bet worked)

as an aside, amusingly enough my determination to avoid tilt didn't really work too well, as this hand proves:

Seat 2: totalise ($1,319.00 in chips)
Seat 3: TheProvost ($145.00 in chips)
Seat 5: Ungar No2 ($185.00 in chips)
Seat 6: columbanus ($689.60 in chips)
Seat 7: BoyGolden ($930.00 in chips) DEALER
Seat 8: helgul ($1,532.46 in chips)
helgul: Post SB $5.00
totalise: Post BB $10.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ungar No2 [ Ahrt Ad 5h 9c]
Dealt to totalise [6d Tc 7c Ts]
Dealt to BoyGolden [3d Qd Kd 2h]
TheProvost: Call $10.00
Ungar No2: Call $10.00
columbanus: Call $10.00
BoyGolden: Raise $65.00
helgul: Call $60.00
totalise: Call $55.00
TheProvost: Fold
Ungar No2: Allin $175.00
columbanus: Fold
BoyGolden: Raise $347.00
helgul: Fold
totalise: Raise $1,254.00
BoyGolden: Allin $518.00
*** FLOP *** [Th Td Kc]
*** TURN *** [6h]
*** RIVER *** [4c]
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $2,516.00 Rake $3.00
totalise: wins $2,516.00

eeeek!!

Interesting question.  I think you have to look at his overall play.  He probably put you on an overpair and thought he had 13 outs plus considerable bluffing opportunities.  I think the str8 bluff is a call, but would have folded to the flush bluff.  So from the turn on his play would be very profitable (vs me anyway) if he bluffed the flush and only bet the made str8. As far as the strength of your hand is concerned, I’m not sure what I would do with an overpair – probably check the turn anyway, and call a reasonable river bet i.e I probably won’t be in this position with a weaker hand.  I suppose the only defence against this kind of opponent is to have a wide enough range so that he occasionally bluffs the nuts.

To be honest I reckon it's a bad push, I would be calling him based on what he can realistically have at this stage, most of the hands that have us beat pushed the turn. I call but hey I'm probably a station :).