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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: doubleup on August 02, 2007, 11:14:08 PM



Title: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: doubleup on August 02, 2007, 11:14:08 PM
- Me sitting in seat 1 with $394.00
- no 2 sitting in seat 2 with $719.91
- no 3 sitting in seat 3 with $503.60
- no 4 sitting in seat 4 with $375.80
- short stack vermin sitting in seat 5 with $40.00 [Dealer]
- no6 sitting in seat 6 with $418.42

no6 posted the small blind - $2.00
me posted the big blind - $4.00
** Dealing card to me: Kc Kh
no2 - bets $14.00
no3 called - $14.00
no4 folded
vermin folded
no6 called - $14.00
me raised - $64.00
no2 called - $64.00
no3 called - $64.00
no 6 called - $64.00

** Dealing the flop: 9s 6s 9c
no6 checked
me bet - $128.00
no2 went all-in - $655.91
no3 went all-in - $439.60
no6 folded

hmmmmmm

Site is Ladbrokes

no 2 stats 16/12 multitabling

no3 37/16 but only 30 hands




Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: kinboshi on August 03, 2007, 12:08:23 AM
I lay it down - but I'm a big wuss. 

It depends on how well you know the players I guess, but with two players in I'd be worried that I was behind to at least one of them (with maybe the other on a monster draw). 

Not sure that the short-stack vermin (LOL) should be checking after the flop without any cards though.


Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: bobby1 on August 03, 2007, 12:11:09 AM
its a deffo lay down, the third bettor has to have huge kahuna's to bet in that spot without a 9 or 66.


Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: Linux on August 03, 2007, 02:30:28 AM
DEFO call and hit a king tbh obv


Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: NoflopsHomer on August 03, 2007, 04:28:32 AM
its a deffo lay down, the third bettor has to have huge kahuna's to bet in that spot without a 9 or 66.

no.2 most likely holding seems to me to be a straight/flush draw combination. If no.3 is clever and alert, he might realise this and think that pushing looks so huge here, you will fold your overpair, but there's still another person to act behind you who checked but is still active, therefore, it's a fold.


Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: boldie on August 03, 2007, 08:21:47 AM
It's a fold for me but for slightly different reasons.

I reckon one of them must have an overpair (aces not ruled out) or a set and the other either has to have trips as well or  or a FD. If one of them indeed has aces or a 9 and the other has the FD one of your kings is no longer an out as the flush would be made.

It's a terrible terrible flop for you and therefore a fold, especially with no6 still to act. The guy can't have called 2 raises pre-flop with air.

It's a reluctant lay-down though and one easier made online than live.


Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: doubleup on August 03, 2007, 09:08:33 AM

I folded 1st allin (seat 2) had AA, 2nd had T9 diamonds.  What do you think of AA's play?  I suppose he thought that the other callers would fold pre. 

ps edited original post a bit.


Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: boldie on August 03, 2007, 09:14:00 AM

I folded 1st allin (seat 2) had AA, 2nd had T9 diamonds.  What do you think of AA's play?  I suppose he thought that the other callers would fold pre. 

ps edited original post a bit.

i don't know how the table had been playing upto that point but I don't particularly like his (AA's) play preflop, it looks like this was a table that was flatcalling a lot (2 raises preflop with 9T?...yikes 67 suited I would have understood but 9T aren't the suited connectors I like to play and Lord knows what the other guy in seat 6 had..small pp?) and you don't want to play aces 4 handed. I would have reraised your pre-flop raise as you quite clearly had to have a big pair to reraise preflop and most likely would have called any re-raise anyways and hope to get HU with your self..(Or atleast make the others pay VERY heavily for seeing a flop)


Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: AlexMartin on August 03, 2007, 05:09:16 PM
easy fold imho.


Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: bobby1 on August 04, 2007, 12:10:59 AM
its a deffo lay down, the third bettor has to have huge kahuna's to bet in that spot without a 9 or 66.

no.2 most likely holding seems to me to be a straight/flush draw combination. If no.3 is clever and alert, he might realise this and think that pushing looks so huge here, you will fold your overpair, but there's still another person to act behind you who checked but is still active, therefore, it's a fold.

but he is gonna push with what??

He aint pushing there with air is he, I understand the play you describe but how could that be the play here?


Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: Wardonkey on August 04, 2007, 01:11:08 AM
I think the Kings are ahead.

Or at least I'm not sure enough that they're behind to fold...

Mid pairs might think that's a good enough flop to push and so do the draws. There are many more hands that they might have that you are beating than hands to which you are losing. For me the odds dictate a call.


(I do my nuts in cash games)


Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: Tragic on August 04, 2007, 02:00:35 AM
Complete AUTO pass how can u not lay this down? If ur actually ahead of both hands it aint by much. Pass move on m8.


Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: doubleup on August 04, 2007, 10:06:57 AM
Complete AUTO pass how can u not lay this down? If ur actually ahead of both hands it aint by much. Pass move on m8.

As the pot is so big I have to be behind here over 90% of the time.


Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: Tragic on August 04, 2007, 03:16:01 PM
I honestly think the chances of you being ahead are <10% here.


Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: temp0r on August 04, 2007, 04:47:41 PM
i don't get your bet on the flop. if you're betting to check if you're ahead you have to fold now theyve both come over the top?!
or if you were betting weak to induce such action you have to call. so you should already know what you want to be doing here..



Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: doubleup on August 04, 2007, 05:26:03 PM
i don't get your bet on the flop. if you're betting to check if you're ahead you have to fold now theyve both come over the top?!
or if you were betting weak to induce such action you have to call. so you should already know what you want to be doing here..



lol I bet half pot - how do my opponents know which of these I'm doing. 

As far as the bet is concerned, there is no point in betting any more as I only get action from hands that call an AI.  By betting half pot I can get action from a hand that thinks I might fold e.g. AK.  I happily call the AA here as he has either AA or QQ.  The problem is whether the AA's AI combined with the coldcaller's is sufficient evidence that I'm behind.



Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: bobby1 on August 04, 2007, 05:58:21 PM
i don't get your bet on the flop. if you're betting to check if you're ahead you have to fold now theyve both come over the top?!
or if you were betting weak to induce such action you have to call. so you should already know what you want to be doing here..



lol I bet half pot - how do my opponents know which of these I'm doing. 

As far as the bet is concerned, there is no point in betting any more as I only get action from hands that call an AI.  By betting half pot I can get action from a hand that thinks I might fold e.g. AK.  I happily call the AA here as he has either AA or QQ.  The problem is whether the AA's AI combined with the coldcaller's is sufficient evidence that I'm behind.



sounds like the perfect summing up to me.


Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: Wardonkey on August 05, 2007, 12:40:11 AM
Your getting 5/1 on the call which is not that far off the odds you need to call if you are stone cold certain that you are behind.

So you need to be absolutely certain you are beat to fold, otherwise you must call.


Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: tikay on August 05, 2007, 02:15:17 AM
I think the Kings are ahead.

Or at least I'm not sure enough that they're behind to fold...

Mid pairs might think that's a good enough flop to push and so do the draws. There are many more hands that they might have that you are beating than hands to which you are losing. For me the odds dictate a call.


(I do my nuts in cash games)

Only to the creme de le creme.


Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: doubleup on August 05, 2007, 11:30:44 AM
Your getting 5/1 on the call which is not that far off the odds you need to call if you are stone cold certain that you are behind.

So you need to be absolutely certain you are beat to fold, otherwise you must call.

errrr 10-1 is quite far off 5-1 I think (google "bookies" "mercedes")


Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: boldie on August 05, 2007, 12:00:27 PM
Your getting 5/1 on the call which is not that far off the odds you need to call if you are stone cold certain that you are behind.

So you need to be absolutely certain you are beat to fold, otherwise you must call.

your miles off the odds you need to call on this flop. With 2 other guys in the pot and you're almost 99% to be behind the other one you're maybe a 5% shot at winning this..20-1


Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: Wardonkey on August 05, 2007, 12:41:14 PM
Your getting 5/1 on the call which is not that far off the odds you need to call if you are stone cold certain that you are behind.

So you need to be absolutely certain you are beat to fold, otherwise you must call.

your miles off the odds you need to call on this flop. With 2 other guys in the pot and you're almost 99% to be behind the other one you're maybe a 5% shot at winning this..20-1

If your up against 66 then you are about 17% to win.

If your up against A9 you are about 9% to win.

There is a small chance of quads, in which case you are fkd.

There is also a decent chance that you are ahead.

Folding is a an error and I think it's quite a big error.











Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: doubleup on August 05, 2007, 01:28:46 PM
Your getting 5/1 on the call which is not that far off the odds you need to call if you are stone cold certain that you are behind.

So you need to be absolutely certain you are beat to fold, otherwise you must call.

your miles off the odds you need to call on this flop. With 2 other guys in the pot and you're almost 99% to be behind the other one you're maybe a 5% shot at winning this..20-1

If your up against 66 then you are about 17% to win.

If your up against A9 you are about 9% to win.

There is a small chance of quads, in which case you are fkd.

There is also a decent chance that you are ahead.

Folding is a an error and I think it's quite a big error.











There is utterly no chance of anyone having A9.  You are forgetting that there is a high prob of the 1st allin having AA.  This kills the two nines being outs when 2nd allin has 66.



Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: Wardonkey on August 05, 2007, 01:42:33 PM
Aces are possible but most players would put another raise in preflop with AA to avoid being OOP in a mulitway pot. The flat call preflop just prices the other two players in.

I agree A9 isn't very likely, but it's not impossible.

How do the draws and the pocket pairs play in this pot?


The pot is huge, half your stack is already is in the middle, you may well be behind, but there's more than enough uncertainty to make the call.


Title: Re: Tricky spot with KK
Post by: doubleup on August 05, 2007, 01:57:44 PM
Aces are possible but most players would put another raise in preflop with AA to avoid being OOP in a mulitway pot. The flat call preflop just prices the other two players in.

I agree A9 isn't very likely, but it's not impossible.

How do the draws and the pocket pairs play in this pot?


The pot is huge, half your stack is already is in the middle, you may well be behind, but there's more than enough uncertainty to make the call.


Bottom line is that it is quite close (hence my post) and the second allin has to have something like JJ in his range to make this a call for me and I doubt if he instacalls with this.  The cold callers in the hand simply must have trapping hands i.e non premium pairs and suited connectors.

Re the AA play, I can only think he assumed that the players that called his !st raise would fold.  Bad play on his part, I would certainly have rrsd a little bit more than the min.

Couple of pokerstoves.

Board: 9s 6s 9c
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    10.028%     10.03%    00.00%             10866            0.00   { AA, QQ }
Hand 1:    09.097%     09.10%    00.00%              9858            0.00   { KcKh }
Hand 2:    80.875%     80.87%    00.00%             87636            0.00   { 99, 66, T9s, 97s+ }


Board: 9s 6s 9c
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    23.605%     23.61%    00.00%             40926            0.00   { AA, QQ }
Hand 1:    22.443%     22.44%    00.00%             38910            0.00   { KcKh }
Hand 2:    53.952%     53.95%    00.00%             93540            0.00   { JJ, 99, 66, T9s, 97s+ }

So it's a clear fold without JJ and just a call with JJ