blonde poker forum

but I got a big hand FFS. What would you do? Villain 21/12/1.75 over 138 does not appear to be a donk.

Seat 1: carlos199252 ($435.30 in chips)
Seat 3: Lisa28 ($209.15 in chips)
Seat 5: spyderbob ($278.60 in chips)
Seat 6: noiq3442872 ($209.15 in chips)
Seat 8: ByrnKincaid ($213.55 in chips) DEALER
Seat 10: OLCO ($115.85 in chips)
OLCO: Post SB $1.00
carlos199252: Post BB $2.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ByrnKincaid [Kc Qd]
Dealt to carlos199252 []
Lisa28: Fold
spyderbob: Fold
noiq3442872: Fold
ByrnKincaid: Raise $8.00
OLCO: Fold
carlos199252: Call $6.00
*** FLOP *** [Qs Qh 9s]
carlos199252: Check
ByrnKincaid: Bet $14.00
carlos199252: Call $14.00
*** TURN *** [Ac]
carlos199252: Check
ByrnKincaid: Bet $30.00
carlos199252: Raise $66.00
ByrnKincaid:

hmmm Button/BB confrontation.  One stat I try to record is the % that someone defends their BB. It's obv helpful in situations like this.  I'm certainly calling his raise and seeing what the river brings.

It's a toughie, but without a really good read i'm calling then check/calling. I suppose he could have queen nine, but if he's reasonable surely he reraised 99 or AQ preflop? Which leaves Q9 I guess, call with position pre can't really raise that flop and now on the turn he reckons you have an ace. Could easily be QT or QJ though i mean it looks like he thinks you have an ace. So i'm definitely check/calling most rivers here.

I think Byron has the button, villain is the BB, but I certainly agree that a sneaky QJ might wait for byron to hit an ace on the turn. 

Would a raise here be insane?  It would scare the sht out of Q9 lol.  obv very easy fold to an AI and check/check if called.  Making it 100 might stop us having to make a bigger mistake on the river.

Sorry you are correct, that makes Q9 less likely. The reraise is a possiblilty, but I hate reraising to pass with a hand like this, some players will just assume A here and push with the likes of QJ. That said, considering so many people seem to overbet near the nuts on the river it might be less costly. I'm definitely reraising this button raise with 99 and AQ, but I don't understand PT stats so is he the kinda guy who does that?

I think im calling here and trying to get to a showdown as cheap as possible, by calling small river bet. I suppose all we beat is qj/q10 and a bluff, but does aq/99 repop preflop.

Caveat: This is a cash head and my hand is so full of strategy of how to beat sng's on party, that kq is like never behind here there.

i am putting him on A9 so i am going to call and check raise the river if it comes a total blank

If we call, the pot is a perfect size for him to shove the river. min(ish) raise on the turn usually shows great strength. What cards have to come on the river for you to fold to his shove?

I think we need to think about commitment in this hand, our villain is telling us he wants to get all in, do we want to commit to getting all in now? I can't see him checking the river although that would obv be great for us.

How much money do you have to put in a pot before it becomes impossible to fold?

High likelihood he has a Q with smaller kicker here.

Great strength on his part might be Qx - what is his BB defending stat?

In general I only go AI if I choose to (big hand, big draw, cooler.....) so I am sensitive to my opponents trying to create big pots , so I suppose if I call the turn I have to consider what he will think about that i.e. does it show some strength? - presumably he knows you would fold Ax.  If I call turn, I prob fold to a river AI unless an A Q or K lands.

 

Folded BB to steal 78%

So Q9 is unlikely, 99 poss, any 2 broadway in the range.  So reasonably he has QT, QJ, KQ, AQ, 99??? You are a slight favorite vs that range.  My final decision, I would prob call the turn fold to a river AI.

i call and make a decision on the river depending on his action and i call an all in shove most of the time because i'm a bit fishy. That min raise definately feels like a milking bet setting you up for the river.The min raise when the board is fairly drawy for a couple of high cards gives me enough fear to be very wary of his apparent lack of worry.

A trappy AA that hates the flop looks suspiciously likely to me assuming you haven't been shy in picking off his blinds.

One of those hands you wish you could just fold because it doesn't feel right but he doesn't bet enough to allow you to, well played him.