blonde poker forum

I Posted this in my Diary, but I'd be grateful if you Hand Analysis experts would cast an opinion.

"......

I busted out of the comp last night, no complaints at all, but you tell me if this was bad play or bad luck. Remember, we are on a 20 minute clock, & the average at this stage is 20 x BB.

I limp (yes, mistake) with  Kc 7c  , Tina is in the SB & makes up. I'm not just limping to catch a flop, I'm in late Position, & I can perhaps pinch this post-flop if they show weakness on the flop. We are 6 handed, so nicking pots is quite important, & relatively easy compared to a full table.

We see this flop......

 Qc Tc 8h   

Now I like that. A lot. So I'm gonna play it strong. (With blinds at 200-400, I have 6,500, Oopo has 10k, & it's a 20 min clock in a very small field).

Tina now bets out, 1,200, that's "pot". What do you do here? Call, & hope to catch the flush later? Pass? (You jest?). Re-Raise? I shove, happily, she can't call I am thinking.

Wrong. She can if she's holding the delicious    Ac 8c......! And it flushed.

Now, is that a bad play by me? Good play? Debatable play? Bad judgement by me? Or just plain bad luck?

I went home quite happily. I think I made the right play at the wrong time. Luck, or a mistake?....."

So, what options do you think I had on that flop, given all the relevant circumstances? I concede, by the way, that the pre-flop limp is weak. Incidentally, if I check-call down, I lose everything anyway, as the flush rivered. But we were not to know that, were we?!

Criticise all you like, because I'm really quite interested in how I get off this one.

Tikay....take a look at....The "How to" series, part I. Donking off a monster stack. Posted by yourself on 29/06/07

You have done the very same thing again that you did that day. I suggest re-reading that thread to avoid repeating the same mistake next time.

6-handed, blinds at 200/400 and shortish stacks mean that raising pre-flop is standard when entering a pot.

Most importantly look at your EXPECTATIONS before the flop...


Tina betting out 1200 into 2 active players on a dangerous drawing board isn't showing weakness but clubs appear and your pre-flop expectations are quickly forgotten. You have set yourself up to loose this way again. I would expect Tina to call when I push after such a strong bet and once again we are putting our tournament lives in the hands of luck not skill.....but there is probably no way out.

Now that we have sorted this out your comments on Poker Hand of the Week would be welcome

Ok preflop i would have raised, but im probably as anti-limping as anyone can be in any form of poker.

Once the sb bets at you given your stack flat calling looks a non option you don't have odds, you just don't have enough back to justify IMO. So i think its push or fold, there is 2.4k in the pot as we speak and so its a case how much fold equity we have. I think im leaning towards folding here as an sb bet looks to me "like an im felting this" kind of bet, but its read dependent and pushing is a good play against some opponents.

Seems to me that sometimes the confluence of the hands at  the table is against you.
If you raise pre-flop I'd figure that the A 10 is going to call.
If you call the 1200 bet post-flop and then make your flush you are going to lose.

What other options? Fold K 8, how good is it 6-handed anyway?

Mantis is 100% correct, oops, I did it again.

Given that, is it still relevant to say, "OK, we limped, & now we have got ourself a problem, so what do we do now?"

I'll take a look at HOTW shortly, (I've been offline a lot the last 48 hours, sorry), but please don't let it be too hard!

Yes, her Bet actually represented great strength, & she did me good & proper, I thought she was weak & I could get her off. Outplayed!

get ya 50p out :tikay:

Perfectly relevant sir

Tina bet the pot as the first to speak with two active players behind on a dangerous drawing board. There is no doubt she is showing a commitment to this hand here. With the quick nature of the tournament, stack sizes and this show of aggression I would hold out little hope that she is going to fold to the all-in. Even if she is not massive herself she knows a push may be a draw and so will still call.

So the only question is...do you want to gamble here and now? You have a good flush draw, some back-door straight opportunities and a king may be good. Due to the nature of the tournament the answer for me is yes so I push as well. But I don't like it because I have got myself into a mess where I am turning to luck to help...putting in a bit pre-flop and then putting in everything after the flop without a strong made hand never sits well with me.

I think the less you rely on luck the better....but then again this is still a gambling game and sometimes needs must.

This hardly qualifies, its a £1 for donkoff stories.

Tikay, just repeat the mantra. "I will not look at flush draws like they are the holy grail"

Thanks Mantis,that's useful stuff. With hindsight, the push was a bad thing, but that was just one Tourney, in the longer term, I need to think about this. If she had an off-suit Top Pair, she'd still bet, have to in fact, to protect it.

But of course, the first mistake is always the one to eradicate, & the limp was the problem. I'm a bugger for Limping, & I must get out of the habit. I stop Limping about 4 or 5 levels into a Tourney, as obviously, there comes a stage when Limps become untenable.

I refuse to pay the 50p, but the quid, well yes, it was a Premier Donkoff.

What's the fine for making the push because it was a female - they are weaker players, & more likely to fold? (Obviously.....)

50p rebate for that :)

Lol, you should really get suspended for that.  ;ifm;

Sklansky took a quote from Bobby Baldwin just after the main event of the 1981 WSOP main event and interpreted it as follows:

"expert players do not rely on luck, they are at war with it. They use their skills to minimize luck as much as possible. They figure they're getting the best of it, and they leave the lucky draws to their weaker opponents. To the extent that they are getting the best of it, they will win more than they lose. Over the long run everybody gets the same proportion of good and bad cards, of winning and losing hands. Beginning poker players rely on big hands and lucky draws. Expert poker players use their skills to minimize their losses on the bad hands and maximize their profits on the big hands. They also are able to judge better than others when a big hand is not the best hand and when a small hand is the best hand."

What he doesn't mention is the part about thinking that you can outplay your opponent just because your opponent is female - maybe that comes in a future publication............. ;)

Quality!!




Can I make an observation about your tournament strategy Tikay?

In the popular "Tikay Tournament Hand" thread you retreated from the push with the 10's because you feared you could be behind and didn't want to risk it.

The advantages of that gamble were the fact that you had a GOOD CHANCE of being ahead AND your TOURNAMENT LIFE was far from on the line.

In K-7 hand here and with the ace flush draw from the previous post you take a gamble on where you have NO CHANCE of being ahead and your TOURNAMENT LIFE is squarely on the line.

I think this is worth a thought or two. Why avoid confrontation when things are favourable for you....only to gamble everything when things are not?

Point taken Mantis, & I don't disagree with much of that.

But......

Why did I push here? Because I was sure - very sure - she could not, & would not, call. As you know, I had 2 ways of winning that pot, by getting her to Pass, or by hitting my flush. (As it happened, the latter was not true!).

I have played these type of situatons much stronger this year, with mixed results, but I do accept the notion that it's better to try & outplay folks rather than get lucky. I just read this one wrong, & she called me.

There HAS to be situations where it's right to play a draw strongly, but I guess I need to define these much better.

Back to grinding for me.......