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Title: Fire the third bullet after river check? Post by: AlexMartin on September 06, 2007, 11:03:37 PM Opponent is known loose player who my notes say can lay down a hand. Have not been active of late and only shown down premium which is why i went for over-rep line. Thoughts please.
Game #5456750344: Hold'em NL ($2/$5) - 2007/09/06 - 22:54:59 (UK) Table "Bitlis" Seat 3 is the button. Seat 1: hercules ($504.40 in chips) Seat 2: Garfy ($601.50 in chips) Seat 3: gith9 ($311.10 in chips) Seat 4: JensLE ($529.65 in chips) Seat 5: Abigail ($543.65 in chips) Seat 6: SuperBad ($453.10 in chips) JensLE: posts small blind $2 Abigail: posts big blind $5 ----- HOLE CARDS ----- dealt to SuperBad [As Kc] SuperBad: raises to $15 hercules: folds Garfy: calls $15 gith9: folds JensLE: folds Abigail: calls $10 ----- FLOP ----- [3d 6s Th] Abigail: checks SuperBad: bets $30 Garfy: folds Abigail: calls $30 ----- TURN ----- [3d 6s Th][5d] Abigail: checks SuperBad: bets $75 Abigail: calls $75 ----- RIVER ----- [3d 6s Th 5d][3s] Abigail: checks SuperBad: checks ----- SHOW DOWN ----- Abigail: shows [Td 8d] (Two Pairs, Tens and Threes, Eight high) SuperBad: mucks hand [As Kc] Abigail collected $254 from Main pot ----- SUMMARY ----- Total pot $257 Main pot $254 Rake $3 Board [3d 6s Th 5d 3s] Seat 1: hercules folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 2: Garfy folded on the Flop Seat 3: gith9 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: JensLE (small blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 5: Abigail (big blind) showed [Td 8d] and won ($254) with Two Pairs, Tens and Threes, Eight high Seat 6: SuperBad mucked [As Kc] Title: Re: Fire the third bullet after river check? Post by: kinboshi on September 06, 2007, 11:05:26 PM You sure he can lay down a hand?
Title: Re: Fire the third bullet after river check? Post by: TightEnd on September 06, 2007, 11:06:52 PM Hate his play on the turn unless he knows you C bet twice with air. He can't know he is ahead
If your notes are right the third bullet surely gets through? Title: Re: Fire the third bullet after river check? Post by: AdamG on September 06, 2007, 11:35:21 PM flop he call c-bet? turn, he calls for flush draw as well as top pair? river he checks because he doesnt like his kicker issues? doubt he would laydown value bet.... 100% he wouldnt
Title: Re: Fire the third bullet after river check? Post by: bolt pp on September 07, 2007, 12:26:38 AM flop he call c-bet? turn, he calls for flush draw as well as top pair? river he checks because he doesnt like his kicker issues? doubt he would laydown value bet.... 100% he wouldnt standard call c-flop bet see if you fire turn, value call turn fd have to be so sure opp can fold top pair on river to fire $175, let him have it, i dont think he folds Title: Re: Fire the third bullet after river check? Post by: ifm on September 07, 2007, 12:51:17 AM Without looking at the HH i'm firing again but big on the river, just from the thread title!!!
Title: Re: Fire the third bullet after river check? Post by: UpTheMariners on September 07, 2007, 11:58:28 AM surely if he knew what he was doing he would put in some kind of raise on the flop.
Title: Re: Fire the third bullet after river check? Post by: byronkincaid on September 07, 2007, 12:33:10 PM surely if he knew what he was doing he would put in some kind of raise on the flop. he prob doesn't want to build a big pot OOP with TPSK Title: Re: Fire the third bullet after river check? Post by: Graham C on September 07, 2007, 12:39:08 PM I don't see him folding with a third bet.
Title: Re: Fire the third bullet after river check? Post by: UpTheMariners on September 07, 2007, 12:53:17 PM surely if he knew what he was doing he would put in some kind of raise on the flop. he prob doesn't want to build a big pot OOP with TPSK and get outdrawn? stick in a reraise and take the pot down. Title: Re: Fire the third bullet after river check? Post by: MANTIS01 on September 07, 2007, 01:08:13 PM If he calls the turn why would he fold the river?
The only reason would be that he was looking to improve...which seems an unlikely thought process. The rivered 3 changes nothing, so if he thought his tp was good on the turn it stands to reason he's going to stick with that idea now. If you had strength you wouldn't want to loose him here so you wouldn't bet big....therefore any big bet will look suspicious. And if you bet small he is priced in to call. Save the bullet. Title: Re: Fire the third bullet after river check? Post by: byronkincaid on September 07, 2007, 01:57:15 PM surely if he knew what he was doing he would put in some kind of raise on the flop. he prob doesn't want to build a big pot OOP with TPSK and get outdrawn? stick in a reraise and take the pot down. I know you're a good player and I'm always getting my concepts muddled up so I'm prob wrong but this is how I see it. He has TPWK a hand which has some showdown value and also some possibility of improving to 2P or trips. You say "stick in a reraise and take the pot down" then are you not turning your hand into 72o? You are betting to protect your hand but if you get 3 bet you have to fold right? If we were really trying to protect our hand then we would be pushing AI if 3B here? Is it not better to make this play with say 72o as a bluff or a set to try to get all in than with a hand with showdown value? If Alex calls then what is your play on the turn if you miss? bet/fold, check/fold, bet/call? If you have AT here are you doing the same? Some very good players say you should generally be calling not raising in that situation. Everything points to a call for me but but I'm interested in your thoughts otherwise. Title: Re: Fire the third bullet after river check? Post by: Rookie (Rodney) on September 07, 2007, 04:03:19 PM He has called the flop and turn with no obvious draws out there that you can put him on. He must surely have a piece and by calling two bullets i am sure he was going to call the river if i were you with my AK. So i think he calls the river here. And if he has got a missed draw your AK high wins anyway when you check behind. You are only value betting for him IMO.
Title: Re: Fire the third bullet after river check? Post by: UpTheMariners on September 07, 2007, 05:42:48 PM surely if he knew what he was doing he would put in some kind of raise on the flop. he prob doesn't want to build a big pot OOP with TPSK and get outdrawn? stick in a reraise and take the pot down. I know you're a good player and I'm always getting my concepts muddled up so I'm prob wrong but this is how I see it. He has TPWK a hand which has some showdown value and also some possibility of improving to 2P or trips. You say "stick in a reraise and take the pot down" then are you not turning your hand into 72o? You are betting to protect your hand but if you get 3 bet you have to fold right? If we were really trying to protect our hand then we would be pushing AI if 3B here? Is it not better to make this play with say 72o as a bluff or a set to try to get all in than with a hand with showdown value? If Alex calls then what is your play on the turn if you miss? bet/fold, check/fold, bet/call? If you have AT here are you doing the same? Some very good players say you should generally be calling not raising in that situation. Everything points to a call for me but but I'm interested in your thoughts otherwise. i take your points on board, but im trying to make the best of a bad situation, if your going to call with 10 8 s OOP, i think you need to be brave enough to go with it. Title: Re: Fire the third bullet after river check? Post by: AlexMartin on September 07, 2007, 05:58:58 PM If he calls the turn why would he fold the river? The only reason would be that he was looking to improve...which seems an unlikely thought process. The rivered 3 changes nothing, so if he thought his tp was good on the turn it stands to reason he's going to stick with that idea now. If you had strength you wouldn't want to loose him here so you wouldn't bet big....therefore any big bet will look suspicious. And if you bet small he is priced in to call. Save the bullet. LOL me and you always think differently Mantis, which is kinda cool. In hindsight he had FD which is why i think he calls on turn. I dont care about "losing" players when i have a big hand, im all out to max value and create big pots with big hands (obv not applicable here). Without looking at the HH i'm firing again but big on the river, just from the thread title!!! lol My thoughts exactly IFM. When the pot is this relatively big here on the river, he knows he is not gtd a bet from opponent and therefore he BETS his big made hands on the river. After showing this blatant weakness i cant help but feel i shoulda pumped it for $150. He has called the flop and turn with no obvious draws out there that you can put him on. He must surely have a piece and by calling two bullets i am sure he was going to call the river if i were you with my AK. So i think he calls the river here. And if he has got a missed draw your AK high wins anyway when you check behind. You are only value betting for him IMO. 45 only reasonable draw after turn call. It gets there on turn. Unless its a blondite in which case 74 bets the river. Title: Re: Fire the third bullet after river check? Post by: totalise on September 07, 2007, 06:19:18 PM Quote If he calls the turn why would he fold the river? The only reason would be that he was looking to improve...which seems an unlikely thought process. The rivered 3 changes nothing, so if he thought his tp was good on the turn it stands to reason he's going to stick with that idea now. typically, the range of hands people 2 barrel with in mid stakes games is much wider then the range they are going to fire the third barrell. This is one of those spots where if it goes check/check on the river, your 10 is almost always good, but against typical opponents, if the river gets bet, you are being bled to death by QQ++, which is why people call turns and fold rivers. Plus he had the flush draw. Quote If you had strength you wouldn't want to loose him here so you wouldn't bet big....therefore any big bet will look suspicious. And if you bet small he is priced in to call. what? so if you bet big its obv a bluff, if you bet small its a value bet, but one that he is "priced in to call" because sometimes you are going to bet small on a bluff as well? Flip the script and that means you can bet big on value bets as well. This notion of "he wouldn't bet so big" is so 2006. Quote Save the bullet. I disagree, and if you can get people callin down with bluff catchers for stacks, then you probably have the war won long term anyways, so its a win-win situation. Also firing rivers here lets you control turns in future pots because you are building yourself leverage, people are going to be fearful of calling turns because they are expecting to face river bets, not knowing if you have the nuts or complete air.. so you have a lot more leeway to take down pots or value-bet thin mercilessly. Title: Re: Fire the third bullet after river check? Post by: MANTIS01 on September 07, 2007, 07:33:50 PM Well I don't play cash for very obvious reasons it seems.
Quote This notion of "he wouldn't bet so big" is so 2006. And I hate being out of fashion. Title: Re: Fire the third bullet after river check? Post by: boldie on September 07, 2007, 07:40:56 PM Quote If he calls the turn why would he fold the river? The only reason would be that he was looking to improve...which seems an unlikely thought process. The rivered 3 changes nothing, so if he thought his tp was good on the turn it stands to reason he's going to stick with that idea now. typically, the range of hands people 2 barrel with in mid stakes games is much wider then the range they are going to fire the third barrell. This is one of those spots where if it goes check/check on the river, your 10 is almost always good, but against typical opponents, if the river gets bet, you are being bled to death by QQ++, which is why people call turns and fold rivers. Plus he had the flush draw. Quote If you had strength you wouldn't want to loose him here so you wouldn't bet big....therefore any big bet will look suspicious. And if you bet small he is priced in to call. what? so if you bet big its obv a bluff, if you bet small its a value bet, but one that he is "priced in to call" because sometimes you are going to bet small on a bluff as well? Flip the script and that means you can bet big on value bets as well. This notion of "he wouldn't bet so big" is so 2006. Quote Save the bullet. I disagree, and if you can get people callin down with bluff catchers for stacks, then you probably have the war won long term anyways, so its a win-win situation. Also firing rivers here lets you control turns in future pots because you are building yourself leverage, people are going to be fearful of calling turns because they are expecting to face river bets, not knowing if you have the nuts or complete air.. so you have a lot more leeway to take down pots or value-bet thin mercilessly. knowing that he had 810 suited I agree with you for sure and his calling the flop and turn makes sense. If I hadn't known he had 8-10 of diamonds (because the only reason I think he's calling the turn bet is because he just improved his hand with the flush draw) I'm not sure I would have stuck a bet in here as for me it now becomes player dependant. If he's a calling station I don't fire the bet in but since you said he can lay something down I stick a bet in and pray he doesn't call (I'd need to be in one of my ballsy moods though as i ussually play like a coward in this situation). I do stick a decent sized bet in though as he might think I'm bluffing at it with a bit bet but that doesn't mean he'll actually call with 8-10. |