blonde poker forum

Here's a hand I played from last night.

Firstly, forget about the fairly loose pre-flop play. I'm interested in the optimal way to play post-flop.

I was bit pissed off at the time (due to previous bad beats/bad play) and just thought "F*ck it.  I'll just take the $70 in the middle- or the coin flip if I'm called" and just made a "lazy" all-in play partly because I was losing at the time and was happy to take a 50/50 gamble to get back to even! (A flopped pair + flush draw is 50/50 against an overpair.) (Incidentally, I know the push screams "flush draw" but even so, I think his call is terrible. He has to know he's 50/50 at best (a flush draw is most likely to have overcards to his tens) and he'll often be drawing to 2 outs to a slow-played AA/KK or set.)

Anyway, anyone agree/disagree with the following:

Flop: Check/Raise Pot. Jam any re-raise.

Turn: Check/Call any bet. (14 outs gives us the correct pot odds to call a pot sized turn bet at 2/1 odds + greater implied odds if we hit.)

River: Check/Fold if no improvement. Bet out if we hit. (Maybe check/raise if we make 2 pair.)


Full Tilt Poker Game #3675400877: Table Chaparral Summit - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 4:09:19 ET - 2007/09/26
Seat 1: pokerRN72 ($400)
Seat 2: n0tvalid ($400)
Seat 3: uscjustallin ($590)
Seat 4: TheOne1126 ($301.40)
Seat 5: RikaKazak ($392)
Seat 6: Narena ($403.30)
Seat 7: gustav cisneros ($444.60)
Seat 8: Court02 ($703.90)
Seat 9: Toby Won Kenobi ($655.85)
TheOne1126 has 5 seconds left to act
TheOne1126 posts the small blind of $2
RikaKazak posts the big blind of $4
5 seconds left to act
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Narena [8d 9d]
Narena calls $4
gustav cisneros raises to $18
Court02 folds
Toby Won Kenobi folds
pokerRN72 folds
uscjustallin folds
TheOne1126 folds
RikaKazak folds
Narena has 15 seconds left to act
Narena calls $14
*** FLOP *** [9h 3d 4d]
Narena checks
gustav cisneros bets $28
Narena raises to $385.30, and is all in
gustav cisneros calls $357.30
Narena shows [8d 9d]
gustav cisneros shows [Th Ts]
*** TURN *** [9h 3d 4d] [5c]
*** RIVER *** [9h 3d 4d 5c] [Kc]
Narena shows a pair of Nines
gustav cisneros shows a pair of Tens
gustav cisneros wins the pot ($809.60) with a pair of Tens

You could lead the flop with the intention of pushing to a raise?

Looks alright to me though the raise does look like exactly what it is a combo draw of sorts. You have plenty of fold equity by shoving and are flipping against anything but a set which is unlikely given his preflop raise. I would imagine it has to be +ev play.

Yes, this was Dubai's suggestion too on the Betfair forum. I agree and think this is the best play because it increases your fold equity.

You also win a bigger pot if he folds, as his raise is likely to be bigger than his bet on the flop.

If your lead is flat called you're not in too bad shape, as you have the odds to call a pot sized bet on the turn too.

That's what I mean by "it increases your fold equity." :)

Ah, I thought you meant they were more likely to fold...

how would you play a set in this spot? and how often would you really have a bigger overpair here?

I'd bet/3bet allin, dont really like the check/overbet jam,  although its one of those spots where its almost impossible to play it with a negative expectation, unless you raise and then fold of course.

I hate the check/overbet jam too. :)

I wouldn't usually play the hand that way- just being lazy.

I'm not great on ev rates but raising $357.30 to win a total pot of $812.60 if called on what is approx. 3.5:1 draw

Doesn't look like a positive ev play to me, it's only  +ev if you can guarantee your opponent will fold.

I'm probably mad but if I held 10 10 (or any over-pair) and you bet like that I'd call figuring I was winning and it was at worst a race (mind you I do always lose races!!).

Having said that I've just set myself up for anyone with a set or two pairs to play like that against me
 ;frustrated;

I'd do the same.

Having heard the replies i prefer the lead and then to 3bet shove as the best way to play this post flop. However it is still +ev to shove over the raise.

With 2 cards to come we most probably have 14 clean outs making us 50+% against an overpair. Villan has 2 pair here about 0.01% of the time due to him having raised preflop.

So

Well, you're 50/50 if you are called so of course it's a +EV move!

bet, 3bet all in is good. i also play it, check raise (a normal amount) then push (or heavily bet again) on the turn. if the turn brings an A, K Q or J he will find it harder to stack off and you win. if he pushes flop u have to call, but against his range with the pot built you have to call to hopeful;ly and probably race.

With the bet/shove I think the shove will be big enough that the range of hands he calls the all-in with will be the same as those he calls the check/shove with, but all the times he folds you win a bigger pot, so it is very obviously more +EV.