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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: totalise on October 01, 2007, 02:13:14 AM



Title: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: totalise on October 01, 2007, 02:13:14 AM
Hi All, for this weeks HotW we will be trying a bit of Heads Up action as a lot of members play this a fair bit and it should be an interesting hand to discuss:

The stakes are $2/$4 NL, and it’s a Heads up table on full-tilt.

Relevant Notes:

We have been battling for about 55 minutes, just on this table. Both villains and heros stack comes from heros money, Hero dropped 2 buyins early on, one with a flush draw vs a set, and the other with QQ vs top 2 on a 783 flop. Hero has steadily chopped at villains stack to recoup some of the money, to where the stacks are at the moment.

Reads:

Villain:  $976

As is typical in HU poker, villain is very active in opening from the button, roughly 80% of the time the villain has opened, and defends against a re-raise from the big blind with impunity. He tends to make thin calls when he thinks he is ahead, but also has shown signs that he will slowplay if he thinks hero is going to launch into the pots. Overall impression of him is that he a typical probably-winning HU player, that has a problem with folding when the pots get large and channelling his aggression.

Hero:  $624

Hero has been re-raising from the BB with a high frequency, almost too much to be profitable, which has led to playing too many inflated pots OOP.  In the last 10 minutes you have been a lot more passive from the BB, just calling instead of re-raising, and this has enabled you to control the size of the pots a bit better. Your play from the button is similar to villains, but you defend a re-raise with a lower frequency. Villain has told you in chat that he sees you as a “calling station donkey” and that you will be “broke in 2 weeks if you keep on playing him”

Onto the Hand:


THE FLOP:

Hero has 3s 4s

Villain makes it $12 from the button, and the action is on hero.

What kind of range do you figure is optimal with regards to defending your blind in HU poker? In general does passive play against aggressive players reap a bigger profit then being aggressive with them? And finally, What do you do here?

Action, hero calls: pot ($24)

Flop comes down: 4c 3h 5s

Action is on you.

Given the wide range of the button with regards to raising, what kinda line do you think will reap the most profit in this spot? Given reads, if you got your stack in here on the flop, how often do you think you would be winning? And finally, what do you do?

Action: hero, checks, and villain bets $23…..


taking the previous questions into account, what plan do you have here for the rest of the hand? and what do you do?

More to come on Wednesday!


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: boldie on October 01, 2007, 05:36:06 PM
interesting one.

Regarding the range..well suited connectors (even low ones) are definetly in them for me..I consider them Gold Dust HU. preferably in position but OK.
Regarding the play..you have to be seen as somewhat loose but against an overly aggresive player (overly being the operative word there) I prefer a Tag approach (or as Tag as you can get HU)

Call pre flop is fine by me. I'd call aswell if I was playing as hero was against this villain.

I lead out on the flop about 90% of the time here. This is the flop you are looking for..can't do much better than hitting two pair so fire in a bet..16$ is nice. I expect his to re-raise here and that's what I'm hoping for. This is exactly the sort of hand you can murder an overly agressive player on cus he won't take you for two pair here and he himself definetly doesn't need to have the made straight on the flop to get plenty of chips in the middle with.


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: snoopy1239 on October 02, 2007, 01:04:41 AM
What kind of range do you figure is optimal with regards to defending your blind in HU poker? In general does passive play against aggressive players reap a bigger profit then being aggressive with them? And finally, What do you do here?

If he has been active pre-flop then you call here with any two cards. I'd rather call here than re-raise as those moves have been called and forced you to play big pots out of position.

Given the wide range of the button with regards to raising, what kinda line do you think will reap the most profit in this spot? Given reads, if you got your stack in here on the flop, how often do you think you would be winning? And finally, what do you do?

I prefer to bet here and hope he raises so I can re-raise and try to win it there and then. Your hand is pretty vulnerable on that Flop to not protect it. Get cute and it could cost you your stack or at least slow down the action card if a danger card hits.

taking the previous questions into account, what plan do you have here for the rest of the hand? and what do you do?

Big raise from me. Proceed with caution on further streets.


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: madasahatstand on October 02, 2007, 01:39:23 PM
What kind of range do you figure is optimal with regards to defending your blind in HU poker? In general does passive play against aggressive players reap a bigger profit then being aggressive with them? And finally, what do you do here?

I’ve never given much serious thought to it but my range in HU for defending my BB is not going to be in the same range as a 6 or 9 seat table because there is less chance of one person being able to bust me than potentially 6 or 9.  I reckon I’m playing small pockets, suited connectors and any ace or higher.

You said that when you were being more aggressive 80% of the time, he was beating you, most likely with the RR when you were OOP. But for 10mins you have chilled out and just call to control the pot. If you start playing aggressive here again, it’s likely he’s going to fold more, but I’m worried that he’s got you on the ropes by now with his bullying. I know you have not asked this but I’d be looking for a way to take back the power and stop him being so aggressive. A few all ins perhaps?

In general, I would say playing a more passive game and letting the villan raise into me would be a good way to get his chips. If you are aggressive, you are going to put yourself into a spot where you have nothing, then try to steal, then get into big trouble. Being an aggressive HU player myself, I much prefer a passive opponent because they don’t really take a lot of chances and rely on hitting cards. Watch passive players though. They sit for 20mins playing nothing so you think ‘aye aye’ when they do raise, but this is a good tact for building table image and taking the odd pot with a steal. Being aggressive will get more chips into the pot but you need to consider whether your opponent is a risk taker or fold 9/10 times with a raise.

I’d call if this is the standard bet amount he has been doing.

Action, hero calls: pot ($24)

Flop comes down:   

Action is on you.

Given the wide range of the button with regards to raising, what kinda line do you think will reap the most profit in this spot? Given reads, if you got your stack in here on the flop, how often do you think you would be winning? And finally, what do you do?


I’m thinking that I want him to get all his chips in the middle because 2 pair HU is a great hand and I’m winning a very high % of the time. Now I know he likes defend his hand so for me my options are;

Check = low risk of losing chips/low gain if he doesn’t bet.  If he does bet, I’m calling because a RR might put him off with your original check. Remember he thinks you are a calling station not a re-raiser so this is a good way to pull him in to the pot = low risk losing chips/high gain if he bets your check.

Bet say half the pot = low risk losing chips because we got a great hand and want him in the pot. Does he think I’m a weakling and will try a small bet to put him off? I reckon he will call or RR a small bet so this option is looking good. Low risk losing/high gain advantage

Bet the pot or more – he might fold as you have been a bit more passive in the last 10 mins = low risk losing chips/low chip gain

Action: hero, checks, and villain bets $23…..


taking the previous questions into account, what plan do you have here for the rest of the hand? and what do you do?

Well looking at the options I laid down for myself, I’m probably calling the bet because he thinks I’m a calling station and probably on a draw. A RR is going to get him thinking and he will likely be a bit more nervous and fold. I suppose the bottom line here is whether you think you are ahead. If you feel you are ahead even with the other cards to come, then sucking him in is the best option. With a guy like this it’s almost impossible to tell what he has given his play previously and his aggression.
Call = low risk losing chips/ high gain should he come back and RR you.
Re-raise = higher potential chip loss but we are confident of our cards so this makes for him either folding = ceiling on the chip gain; calling which I doubt this character is going to do, or RR and you got him but I don’t think he’s going to do this.

All things told, I’m calling to extract max value.



Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: TightEnd on October 02, 2007, 01:44:42 PM
I think I'm putting in a biggish check raise here

Firstly I have a vulnerable hand that can be counterfieted easily, and with his raising range being wide it will be tricky for me to get off my hand. Whilst maximising value is great, taking it down here isn't the worst result in the world

but look at his opinion of you..you are a "donkey"...he's not passing much to the check raise or putting you on a strong hand here is he?..check raising here might be the way to extract the maximum!


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: madasahatstand on October 02, 2007, 01:54:19 PM
I think I'm putting in a biggish check raise here

Firstly I have a vulnerable hand that can be counterfieted easily, and with his raising range being wide it will be tricky for me to get off my hand. Whilst maximising value is great, taking it down here isn't the worst result in the world

but look at his opinion of you..you are a "donkey"...he's not passing much to the check raise or putting you on a strong hand here is he?..check raising here might be the way to extract the maximum!

yes makes sense but you have been playing more passively for 10mins, so dont you think  a CR is going to put him off? He can always get you the next time when you dont have a hand.  I mean its fine if you want to take the pot down here and now but for maximum value, keep playing like a calling station. I reckon the hand is great and im pretty confident about it. that being said, its in these spots i lose most of my chips.......lol  This is the good thing about these analysis threads. gets you thinking out of your own box:)


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: madasahatstand on October 02, 2007, 02:13:44 PM
interesting one.


I lead out on the flop about 90% of the time here. This is the flop you are looking for..can't do much better than hitting two pair so fire in a bet..16$ is nice. I expect his to re-raise here and that's what I'm hoping for.
If he does the RR here then he's going to have  some doubts at the back of his mind when you call or go all in.  So its likely if he has nothing, he's not going to give any more action after this. The only way you are ever going to maximise your profit here is when he has an over pair or better. I doubt he has.  You didnt say what you would do if he RR?  If you RR again, i think thats the max value gotten. If he thinks you are waiting to hit, hes going to keep raising. If you call you tell him you need a hit. If you bet, you are telling him you might have a hand already


This is exactly the sort of hand you can murder an overly agressive player on cus he won't take you for two pair here and he himself definetly doesn't need to have the made straight on the flop to get plenty of chips in the middle with.

no he doesnt need a straight to get his chips in but you got to make sure you keep telling him you have a draw. even the most aggressive players know when to give it up, and as i said earlier, its usually when the passive player (and we have been for 10 mins) make any kind of bet or r.



Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: AlexMartin on October 02, 2007, 03:00:00 PM
I think the check raise is way too defensive here and opens up opportunities for your opponent to outplay you. Lead flop, let him raise, then you can stick it up him.


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: TightEnd on October 02, 2007, 03:01:35 PM
maybe so, but hero has checked post flop already.......so the option is check call or check raise


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: madasahatstand on October 02, 2007, 03:02:37 PM
I think the check raise is way too defensive here and opens up opportunities for your opponent to outplay you. Lead flop, let him raise, then you can stick it up him.

what about the check call?


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: boldie on October 02, 2007, 04:55:23 PM
Quote from: [url=http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1198
Alex[/url] Martin (http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1198) link=topic=27773.msg566702#msg566702 date=1191333600]
I think the check raise is way too defensive here and opens up opportunities for your opponent to outplay you. Lead flop, let him raise, then you can stick it up him.

what about the check call?

This board is too dangerous for the checkcall as there are a million and one straight draws out there. I want people to pay for hitting against me when I think I'm ahead. This board is way to dangerous to be cute and slowplay by check calling. Check -raising is OK but I don't think it's the best way to maximize the hand.

If you lead out here he can re-raise you to 75'ish..I re-raise that on this flop. I have a big hand but I am out of position and if any of the straight cards come down (and there's an amazing 12 of them, although admittedly the Ace is not that big of a scarecard from a straight perspective as him holding a 2 is a fairly remote possibility) I have no chance of winning the pot.


The chips go in on the flop for me


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: boldie on October 02, 2007, 05:01:48 PM
maybe so, but hero has checked post flop already.......so the option is check call or check raise

ok fair point..but the discussion nover whether that's the best play here or not is one of the most interesting here. The flop play on a board like this is everything I think.

but to answer..I call here..I don't like the check raise as your oppo is likely to call knowing you'd need a very big hand to not lay it down if a scare card comes. If you were to check-raise to 75$ and I was on the button I would call it on this board and hope for a 2-6 or 7..even if you hold trips (because why would you check raise with a straight on this board? so there's no way anyone would put you on that) you would have to lay it down when I ask you to stick all your 600$ in..and Lordie knows I would either on the turn or river..and that would mean you just lost control of the pot AND stuck more money in.

After you checked it just call and hope a scare card doesn't come down. (UNLESS, you do what Mad said a few posts back and that's move all-in here..that way you don't have any questions to ask yourself and he has to ask himself a big one..I personally wouldn't advocate that as it would be risking a lot of chips to win but a few but I'd prefer that to check-raising to 70'ish.


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: madasahatstand on October 02, 2007, 05:21:01 PM
Quote from: [url=http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1198
Alex[/url] Martin (http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1198) link=topic=27773.msg566702#msg566702 date=1191333600]
I think the check raise is way too defensive here and opens up opportunities for your opponent to outplay you. Lead flop, let him raise, then you can stick it up him.

what about the check call?

This board is too dangerous for the checkcall as there are a million and one straight draws out there. I want people to pay for hitting against me when I think I'm ahead. This board is way to dangerous to be cute and slowplay by check calling. Check -raising is OK but I don't think it's the best way to maximize the hand.

You see this is maybe my problem. i know he could have anything really, but in my head im fixed on the fact he has nothing. well maybe an over pair or AK- A-anything.  Im taking the chance that he's being aggressive and knows he can shake me offdown the line. this really is something i need to work on cause once i get that 'gut feeling'about someones hand, i dont reallly let it go.

If you lead out here he can re-raise you to 75'ish..I re-raise that on this flop. I have a big hand but I am out of position and if any of the straight cards come down (and there's an amazing 12 of them, although admittedly the Ace is not that big of a scarecard from a straight perspective as him holding a 2 is a fairly remote possibility) I have no chance of winning the pot.

Yup I can see why you would play it like that and its good advice to take the pot down but, this guy most likely looks at the board cards and makes his moves as if he was playing without looking at the hole cards. Its how I play aggressive HU. Doesnt matter what my cards are, its how I play the board. cant wait too see what the turn brings:)


The chips go in on the flop for me


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: boldie on October 02, 2007, 05:29:37 PM
Quote from: [url=http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1198
Alex[/url] Martin (http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1198) link=topic=27773.msg566702#msg566702 date=1191333600]
I think the check raise is way too defensive here and opens up opportunities for your opponent to outplay you. Lead flop, let him raise, then you can stick it up him.

what about the check call?

This board is too dangerous for the checkcall as there are a million and one straight draws out there. I want people to pay for hitting against me when I think I'm ahead. This board is way to dangerous to be cute and slowplay by check calling. Check -raising is OK but I don't think it's the best way to maximize the hand.

You see this is maybe my problem. i know he could have anything really, but in my head im fixed on the fact he has nothing. well maybe an over pair or AK- A-anything.  Im taking the chance that he's being aggressive and knows he can shake me offdown the line. this really is something i need to work on cause once i get that 'gut feeling'about someones hand, i dont reallly let it go.

If you lead out here he can re-raise you to 75'ish..I re-raise that on this flop. I have a big hand but I am out of position and if any of the straight cards come down (and there's an amazing 12 of them, although admittedly the Ace is not that big of a scarecard from a straight perspective as him holding a 2 is a fairly remote possibility) I have no chance of winning the pot.

Yup I can see why you would play it like that and its good advice to take the pot down but, this guy most likely looks at the board cards and makes his moves as if he was playing without looking at the hole cards. Its how I play aggressive HU. Doesnt matter what my cards are, its how I play the board. cant wait too see what the turn brings:)


The chips go in on the flop for me

ok I see where you're coming from there but pre-flop he might also have had nothing to actually re-raise with..this includes cards that would actually hit if the straight comes down. and he's still likely to reraise us if we lead out. If he then folds to us reraising him again he will have put more chips in than he would if we checkcalled him..probably the same than if we checkraise him and he flat calls that BUTwe are making him make the decision and out of position HU that's taking one of his big advantages away.

I don't mind playing as if my cards don't matter..but only when I'm in position. If you play like that out of position against a good HU player he might absolutely murder you..position is everything on a board like this


*edit...turn could be very interesting though...


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: madasahatstand on October 02, 2007, 05:42:07 PM
Quote from: [url=http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1198
Alex[/url] Martin (http://www.blondepoker.com/blondepedia/blondepedia_view_player.php?player_id=1198) link=topic=27773.msg566702#msg566702 date=1191333600]
I think the check raise is way too defensive here and opens up opportunities for your opponent to outplay you. Lead flop, let him raise, then you can stick it up him.

what about the check call?

This board is too dangerous for the checkcall as there are a million and one straight draws out there. I want people to pay for hitting against me when I think I'm ahead. This board is way to dangerous to be cute and slowplay by check calling. Check -raising is OK but I don't think it's the best way to maximize the hand.

You see this is maybe my problem. i know he could have anything really, but in my head im fixed on the fact he has nothing. well maybe an over pair or AK- A-anything.  Im taking the chance that he's being aggressive and knows he can shake me offdown the line. this really is something i need to work on cause once i get that 'gut feeling'about someones hand, i dont reallly let it go.

If you lead out here he can re-raise you to 75'ish..I re-raise that on this flop. I have a big hand but I am out of position and if any of the straight cards come down (and there's an amazing 12 of them, although admittedly the Ace is not that big of a scarecard from a straight perspective as him holding a 2 is a fairly remote possibility) I have no chance of winning the pot.

Yup I can see why you would play it like that and its good advice to take the pot down but, this guy most likely looks at the board cards and makes his moves as if he was playing without looking at the hole cards. Its how I play aggressive HU. Doesnt matter what my cards are, its how I play the board. cant wait too see what the turn brings:)


The chips go in on the flop for me

ok I see where you're coming from there but pre-flop he might also have had nothing to actually re-raise with..this includes cards that would actually hit if the straight comes down. and he's still likely to reraise us if we lead out. If he then folds to us reraising him again he will have put more chips in than he would if we checkcalled him..probably the same than if we checkraise him and he flat calls that BUTwe are making him make the decision and out of position HU that's taking one of his big advantages away.

I don't mind playing as if my cards don't matter..but only when I'm in position. If you play like that out of position against a good HU player he might absolutely murder you..position is everything on a board like this


*edit...turn could be very interesting though...
i like your part about making him make the decisions. i dont think that he is auto RR if we lead though given our last 10 mins of passivity?    could be wrong though.


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: boldie on October 02, 2007, 05:57:56 PM
the 10 minutes of passivity  is a tricky thing really and something that is hard to judge someone else's reaction to untill you've sat with them for a while or played them before.

Most players however only actually actively remember the first few hands you've played against them. People tend to judge others within seconds and for poker players this is no different. It is however a BIG mistake to do so but it's something that most people can't help..they do it in every real life situation (people might not admit it but they make their minds up about you within 10 second..they might change it when they get to know you but innitially their mind is already made up between sweeping generalisations..Good player/Bad player is one of them) and therefore they also do it when playing HU poker online or live.

If (in HU obviously on a full table it takes longer) you play the first 8 hands tighter than anything you have ever done people will throughout the session respect your raises, if you are throwing your chips in the middle like there's no tomorrow for those same 8 hands they tend not to repsect any of the bets you make for the rest of the session.

I remember a while ago someone (Mr A) posted something about a guy (call him mr B) he was playing HU online who stepped away from the PC for 10 minutes or so. Now this mr B was losing money big style before he stepped away from the PC for 10 minutes..Mr A however got absolutely humped when Mr B got back. The question Mr A posted was "Was there someone else there who took over from Mr B ..the style was completely different and I got done..the new Mr B could actually play and I lost all my money!"

Now it could indeed be that there was another Mr B who took over from the first one..but that is irrelevant to the eventual result..Mr A lost his money for the rest of the session simply because he had already made his mind up about what hand Mr B plays and how he plays them..He did not re-asses Mr B when Mr B changed styles...and THAT is what lost him his money.

If the Villain in this hand is an experienced winning HU player he will have actively (as in it did more than just register as "hey this is easy") noticed the 10 or so minutes..he could still write it down as "Changing styles to keep me guessing" though..or "not seen any cards (unlikely)" But to actually fold his hand immediately when he's in position on a board where, unless you have the made straight or top set, he can always out play you is something else entirely  and that's the main reason I would not be afraid of that last 10 minutes costing me if I lead out here.

This is all amateur psychology of course but just something I noticed.


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: Flea on October 02, 2007, 06:00:27 PM
I'd have definitely bet out on the flop but given the check then I think you have to wonder if he has anything of it.

Working backwards a little then, he put a standard 3 times BB raise in pre-flop which you called (given the description of Villain then this could mean almost anything although I'd discount a high pocket pair as I'm not sure he'd play one this way against his perceived image of you).

After flop I think your still ahead but would not discount him now having a straight draw so don't want to give him a free card - therefore I'd raise but I'd try to raise a large amount which looks weak so he thinks you have something but not much, maybe raise to 225 (I know that sounds like an over-bet but that's what I want villain to think and it also then looks like a desperation move against someone who perceives they are out-playing you), if he folds then ok you may have missed value but equally avoided any nasty turn cards.

If he calls then pray the turn is a nothing card and then lead out a large bet.

If he re-raises then as I think I'm ahead I'd push all-in - if I'm beat then that's just bad luck and impossible to tell against this sort of player.


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: madasahatstand on October 02, 2007, 06:01:17 PM
the 10 minutes of passivity  is a tricky thing really and something that is hard to judge someone else's reaction to untill you've sat with them for a while or played them before.

Most players however only actually actively remember the first few hands you've played against them. People tend to judge others within seconds and for poker players this is no different. It is however a BIG mistake to do so but it's something that most people can't help..they do it in every real life situation (people might not admit it but they make their minds up about you within 10 second..they might change it when they get to know you but innitially their mind is already made up between sweeping generalisations..Good player/Bad player is one of them) and therefore they also do it when playing HU poker online or live.

If (in HU obviously on a full table it takes longer) you play the first 8 hands tighter than anything you have ever done people will throughout the session respect your raises, if you are throwing your chips in the middle like there's no tomorrow for those same 8 hands they tend not to repsect any of the bets you make for the rest of the session.

I remember a while ago someone (Mr A) posted something about a guy (call him mr B) he was playing HU online who stepped away from the PC for 10 minutes or so. Now this mr B was losing money big style before he stepped away from the PC for 10 minutes..Mr A however got absolutely humped when Mr B got back. The question Mr A posted was "Was there someone else there who took over from Mr B ..the style was completely different and I got done..the new Mr B could actually play and I lost all my money!"

Now it could indeed be that there was another Mr B who took over from the first one..but that is irrelevant to the eventual result..Mr A lost his money for the rest of the session simply because he had already made his mind up about what hand Mr B plays and how he plays them..He did not re-asses Mr B when Mr B changed styles...and THAT is what lost him his money.

If the Villain in this hand is an experienced winning HU player he will have actively (as in it did more than just register as "hey this is easy") noticed the 10 or so minutes..he could still write it down as "Changing styles to keep me guessing" though..or "not seen any cards (unlikely)" But to actually fold his hand immediately when he's in position on a board where, unless you have the made straight or top set, he can always out play you is something else entirely  and that's the main reason I would not be afraid of that last 10 minutes costing me if I lead out here.

This is all amateur psychology of course but just something I noticed.

IM DIGESTING THE AMATEUR PSYCHOLOGY.KEEP IT UP :)


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: totalise on October 03, 2007, 06:53:38 AM
hi all, good comments so far, keep them coming!

the action from the flop goes as follows: hero checks, villain bets $23, and hero raises to $93, and villain calls. The reason why I dint go for the lead/3-bet allin is that the stacks were a bit deeper then normal, and I didn't think that our equity would be very good if the action went: hero bets $20 (or so) villain raises to $90, and then hero slams it in. If the stacks were 100bb, then I'd have liked that move a lot more. I also in the depths of my mind thought that if we c/raised, there was a chance that villain could re-re-raise to say $200 or so with complete air, as this is a great flop to represent a hand from the BB, and he knows that, so he could try and "re-steal" the pot from us,  and then we could shovel it in.

Also if a scare card does come, it increases the frequency with which our opponent is likely to try and steal the pot, which further increases our equity in this spot. Of course, it also leaves us looking like an idiot the times he turns the hand and we call a stack off with a ragged 2pair!

Anyways, onto the next stage:

hero raises to $93, and villain calls.

Turn comes the As, to give a board of 4c 3h 5s  Aspades , pot $210 roughly (hero has 3s 4s remember)

Action is on hero:

Given villains flop play, and given his range overall, how likely is it that the ace will have improved his hand?  how would you proceed from here given his global range? what are the benefits of checking vs betting? and finally, what would you do?

Action.. hero checks, and villain bets $155. 


What do you do here? How much value is there to lettin him bluff vs raising and trying to get more value from second best hands? if you push here, how often will he call with a hand you can beat, given his turn bet, and how often will he fold a better hand? and if he has air, how often do you think hes gonna be sending it in on the river?

river play to come on Friday.



Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: Flea on October 03, 2007, 05:41:23 PM
That's a roughly 2/3rd pot find out where you are bet, I think he's now hit an ace but is not sure if you've got the straight as your betting could have been someone on a draw - therefore I'd come over the top all-in now as it no longer looks like he's trying to just bet you off it he now wants the possibility of seeing another card and maybe taking more off you if he hits or taking it down now if you don't have anything.

The all-in may induce a call in which case you'll need to avoid a 2,5 another ace and whatever his other hole card is - but I think he's showing signs of folding if you play it strongly IMO.


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: Flea on October 03, 2007, 05:59:53 PM
Meant to say I think opponent has been playing something from A8 - AJ range in my opinion probably A9.

Although I am pretty awful at reading other peoples possible hands  ;frustrated;


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: boldie on October 03, 2007, 06:19:23 PM
ok..the least worrying of all the scare cards is now out. As I said before the chances of him having a 2 are lower in my opinion that him having an Ace 6 or 7. He bets half the pot here after calling your, fairly substantial, check raise on the flop. We have to assume he has some sort of hand A6 (Ace with the open ender..nice) A5 (top pair with ace kicker...and now two pair..not nice for us) BUT with it being an Ace of Spades that came down on the turn if he just hit and went ahead in the hand we can outdraw him with any 3 4 and spade. He has shown strenght though so I expect that to continue..as you played it I reraise to 400$ and call an all in.


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: AlexMartin on October 03, 2007, 11:28:36 PM
I cant think of a more perfect opportunity to bluff than here. He doesnt have a 2, and there is a definite possibility that you could. This is a bluff that can easily make him lay the best hand down (ie. if he had a pair on the flop and now 2 pair on the turn) and gives your bluff a whole dirtload of equity. Raise. I cant see stack sizes but im commited here with a large raise repping a 2.


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: totalise on October 04, 2007, 02:56:00 AM
I cant think of a more perfect opportunity to bluff than here. He doesnt have a 2, and there is a definite possibility that you could. This is a bluff that can easily make him lay the best hand down (ie. if he had a pair on the flop and now 2 pair on the turn) and gives your bluff a whole dirtload of equity. Raise. I cant see stack sizes but im commited here with a large raise repping a 2.

i kinda agree, I guess the crux of the matter with this spot centres on:

a) how often does he fold a better hand
b) how often does he call with a worse hand
c) how often does he have a hand that wont put a single cent more in the pot that can outdraw you on the river (ie protecting your hand from giving up equity when theres no more to be gained)
d) how often do you think hes gonna ship it in with a bluff on the river if the river is a complete blank
e) if he has you beat on the turn, how often is he stacking off if you improve your hand on the river and it leaves him with a second best hand.


At the time I thought the ace was the best possible card in the deck to come, because it increases the % of  E) occuring due to most of our outs being "hidden" in that the flush is a backdoor draw and a 3/4 paring wouldn't be *that* scary to an ace as it lets you rep a whiffed draw on the river, and also D) because its a card that LAGs love to latch onto when they are running bluffs.



Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: totalise on October 05, 2007, 09:10:50 AM
hi all,

thanks again for the comments!

Action on the turn was that hero just called the turn bet of $155:


river came the Qc, for a final board of 4c 3h 5s  Aspades Qc, action on hero:


Given the range of your opponent, what % of the time do you think villain will try and bluff if you check? clearly this will govern the frequency with which you bet/check, so based on all that, what is your river action, based on how the whole hand has been played? and if you check, what do you do if he a) makes a small bet b) ships it in

reveal to come on Sunday, thanks again for the comments


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: boldie on October 05, 2007, 05:04:55 PM
don't like the way this hand has been played tote..Hero has given villain time to out draw him here..the check call on the turn doesn't make a lot of sense to me and now you're behind to..well..everything he bets with really.
If you don't stick them in here he's not going away if he bets and with a very lowly two pair on this board you don't want any callers..so check raising is out.
You could lead out for all your chips here. and hope he would fold 2 pair or better if he thinks you have the 2 (which your turn call could very well indicate....but it really would be making a play more than anything else.

Check call is an option..but what hand that you beat will he bet with? AK? I don't think so..not after you called 155 on the turn...so there's no point in this

You could check fold ...if you don't lead out you might aswell check fold I think..you've just about given the pot up if you don't lead out after just calling the turn.

It depends for me...I would probably lead out here (70% of the time) hoping he can fold 2 pair + here or check fold if I think he can't..I just really don't like the way the turn was played...not leading out gives the pot up I think...so stick in 250 ish on a bluff.


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: WellChief on October 05, 2007, 06:27:50 PM
Your hand is a bit under-represented here, but it is still kind of a bluff-catcher given the board.  That said, I think an opponent like this will bluff a high %age of the time, especially given the turn card and your check-call.  LAG's normally can't stop themselves betting when scare cards come and weakness is shown.

I would check-call the river.  Opponent could easily have a hand like 4-6, and your hand looks something like that too.

With heads up action though the flow of the action is so important, so only the hero can make the best judgement here.


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: snoopy1239 on October 06, 2007, 12:34:31 PM
hi all, good comments so far, keep them coming!

the action from the flop goes as follows: hero checks, villain bets $23, and hero raises to $93, and villain calls. The reason why I dint go for the lead/3-bet allin is that the stacks were a bit deeper then normal, and I didn't think that our equity would be very good if the action went: hero bets $20 (or so) villain raises to $90, and then hero slams it in. If the stacks were 100bb, then I'd have liked that move a lot more. I also in the depths of my mind thought that if we c/raised, there was a chance that villain could re-re-raise to say $200 or so with complete air, as this is a great flop to represent a hand from the BB, and he knows that, so he could try and "re-steal" the pot from us,  and then we could shovel it in.


That's true to an extent, but the way you've played it, you've left yourself with a mighty tough decision on the Turn without really knowing where you stand. Once he's called your check-raise, I would have thought it unlikely that you are going to win a big pot, so you might as well take a half-decent pot on the Flop rather than risk your bollox unnecessarily.

Come Turn and River, I would normally say check and try to induce a bet from a missed open ended straight draw, but given he could have a set or a big two pair, I think you may have to try a block bet and bet half the pot.

Okay, time for an educated guess, let's go with A-Q and he goes antsy in his pantsy and ships it in.


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: snoopy1239 on October 07, 2007, 09:19:29 PM
The reveal for totalise's latest hand of the week, plus his conlusion, can be found in the article below:

http://www.blondepoker.com/index.php?q=node/12600 (http://www.blondepoker.com/index.php?q=node/12600)


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: boldie on October 08, 2007, 05:58:16 AM
interesting indeed...

Follow on question, what would you have done if he had stuck his chips in on the river?


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: totalise on October 08, 2007, 09:10:43 PM
interesting indeed...

Follow on question, what would you have done if he had stuck his chips in on the river?

the turn call was made mostly to let ur oppo bluff the river, so ida snap called. There aren't many made hands that fold on the turn to a raise that will suddenly push the river (apart from AQ) for value, so your equity against his made-hand-range will mostly remain unaltered if you push the turn or check/call the river, but calling turn and checking river introduces whiffed draws/3 barrel bluffs into the equation, and as wellchief alluded to earlier, your hand is a good bluff catcher that wont fold out many better hands , so widen the range and snap off some bluffs.


Title: Re: Hand of the Week: October 1st
Post by: snoopy1239 on October 09, 2007, 05:32:58 AM
interesting indeed...

Follow on question, what would you have done if he had stuck his chips in on the river?

the turn call was made mostly to let ur oppo bluff the river, so ida snap called. There aren't many made hands that fold on the turn to a raise that will suddenly push the river (apart from AQ) for value, so your equity against his made-hand-range will mostly remain unaltered if you push the turn or check/call the river, but calling turn and checking river introduces whiffed draws/3 barrel bluffs into the equation, and as wellchief alluded to earlier, your hand is a good bluff catcher that wont fold out many better hands , so widen the range and snap off some bluffs.

Are you not assuming that he hasn't got a hand here when there is a pretty good chance that if he hasn't hit already, then he still could? What if he'd made his straight on the river. You'd be calling off your stack and ruing not getting busier earlier. I think I'd be more inclined to agree if the Queen and the Ace were the other way around.