blonde poker forum

Ok, recently M3boy finds KK in middle stages of a £50 rebuy comp and the action before him goes all-in from shortie, all-in from CL @ his table, all-in from loose gambler and the action is on him. He has roughly 25 BB and fkind Kings. He calls and finds himself up against 66/99 and AQ. What do you reckon KK % of holding here is? No pokerstove allowed.

40%?

50%

a guess 30 ish..maybe 32 or 34%.and I'm thinking I'm too high there.

Somewhere between what Dewi and Bongo said.

:dontask:

 I would guess about 40% like bongo.

i reckon much lower

27%

100%     Kings are unbeatable

i reckon pretty high 65%

I'd say about 45% or so.

I actually put the kk v 2 random hands instead of 3 :D

if M3boy has the kings its somewhere about 3%

Early thirties I would guess.

about 33%

30% ace queen win

19% 66 win

18% 99 win

at a guess

given the information then the guy with 6's is about 20% to beat Kings as is the guy with 9's, the guy with an Ace is about 35% to beat Kings so Kings are still favourite as there are more cards in the kings favour as kings don't need to hit so I reckon Kings are still about 55% to win. One other thing in the Kings favour is that all 3 of his opponents are actually taking some straightening card possibilities from each other (and maybe flush possibilities).

how can Kings be 55% here? there's no way that can be the case.

Any pokershow where they show the stats kings and Queens show up at roundabout 34% when there are more than 3 other people in the pot. Pre-flop you're one in 3-ish..if you survive the flop your odds obviously go up tremendously.

You are a favourite over the other players so you're chance of winning the pot are higher than the others chances ..but that doesn't mean that you are more than 50%.it just means your % is higher than everyones individual %.

I might be way off here and that just means I haven't been paying attention when Late night poker or something was on but I reckon there's no chance in hell you win this one more than half the time statistically.

tbh it was a complete guess, my brain hurts too much to work it out properly.

like I said...I just know what the late night pokershows tell me and it wouldn't surprise me one bit to find Jesse May was talking piash all this time  :)  I know F all about pot-odds..especially in a situation like this

Flea your maths doesn't quite add up, they need to addup to 100 including splits.
I generally work that any random hand v a high pp is about 15-20% so 3x15 leaves you 55% without splits or 3x20 leaves 40% so somewhere in between is about right.
so 47.5% :D

perhaps i should be folding 99 preflop.............bad hand

i'd guess a tad under 50...off to check how close that is....

...also the relative suits will have a smallish impact on the %s too

The kings are in fact 45% to win this coup. I was suprised at how high they were tbh. I tried working it out the wrong way when i was on the table, adding up the combined probabilities of KK holding against each individual hand. Eg its 4-1 v a pp (66+99) + AQ has a 30% chance of outdrawing the kings.

Quite suprising really. Pokerstove is a wicked bit of kit btw. Play around with it and try some matchups. If ur sooooooted ur never that far behind.

did M3 come 4th?

no way on earth he came near to winning the hand?

I was right then... ;whistle; 

wow that is high..and Jesse May (maybe not surprisingly) is full of it..OK it's not him but the graphics guys.

Looks like I might need to gets me da stove

I worked it out the same way as you and then added some back to the kings to take into account the times more than one of the opposing hands hit.

I remember this hand.

What is important is the stack sizes.

UTG has circa 8k, UTG+1 has circa 45k, UTG+3 has circa 7k and I have circa 40k

No one elseat the table has over 12k.

UTG has AQ
UTG+1 has 66
UTG + 3 has 99

We haven't heard a bad beat whinge... I can only assume he won! :D

...or folded.

It says in OP that he called.. Keep up..

That was back on page one...

i still make it a -EV call for M3boy come on its paul we are talking about