blonde poker forum

This week we go back on-line to discuss a hand I played in a $25,000 guaranteed event. The buy-in was $100...and we are reaching the latter stages of the competition.

So let's take a look...

The Tournament

Environment:            On-Line Game
Type:                         Multi-Table Tournament   
Players:                     482                           
Buy-in:                       $100+$9
Starting Chips:           3,000
Prize Pool:                  £48,200
Blinds:                         300/600-$50 ante
Remaining Players:     65
Average Chips:           22,246

It is at that stage in a tournament when very few flops are being seen. Raises are generally taking down the blinds and antes uncontested. Occasionally raises have been met with short-stack all-in re-raises as they battle to survive or when two big hands collide in pair Vs pair or coin-flip situations. So the first question is...What is your general strategy in this type of situation?

History & Players

We came to the table just over an hour ago and have been completely and utterly card-dead during this time. No pairs, no face-cards, no aces, no nothing. We have made a couple of unsuccessful steal attempts but have been met with resistance and have had to let go. This dire period has seen our stack deplete from around 49k to a still healthy 42k...but each round costs 1,400. Considering your steal attempts haven't got through do you now batten down the hatches and just wait for a hand or do you still try to remain active in-spite of this?

Our opponent in this hand is Asprilla29 on the BB who hasn't shown any willingness to defend his blind so far and has been a rather passive player.

Mantis: 42,200 & in the cut-off
Asprilla29: 39,500 & in the BB

The Hand

Still no hands...and it is folded around to us in the cut-off

We look down to see yet another inspiring holding in...

 5s  6s

...and decide to raise it up to 2.2k.

The button folds, the SB folds and Asprilla29 calls in the BB.

So we go to the flop with 5,200 chips in the pot.

The Flop

The flop comes down

 4s  7s  Qd

What are your thoughts about the texture of this flop and how are you looking to proceed from here?

Asprilla29 puts out a bet of 2,500.

What do you make of this and what do you do now?

I decide to raise to 7,500

Do you prefer a flat call here? If you call what would your strategy be on the turn? Does calling prevent a big pot win should your draw complete on the next card?

Asprilla29 uses his time bank to think things through and then flat-calls the re-raise. What sort of hand can we put him on and how do you intend to proceed from here?

We go to the turn with 20,200 chips in the pot and a stack of 32,500.

You are a favourite surely against his range of hands on the flop here (any pair, any queen most likely) so a raise must be in order

However by raising 5k you are giving him some odds to flat call your raise and then push a blank turn.

The push all-in must have merit I would have thought.

Proceeding from here....

1 Folding on a blank turn if he pushes

2 hoping your raise buys you a check on the turn from him to jam the turn yourself in position, hoping he can't call with an underpair to the Queen . If he was superstrong he would have popped it back on the flop

I suspect he has a medium ace probably A10, if he had AQ I'd expect him to re-raise your raise on the flop in view of the flush possibilities.

As is often the case the turn is probably the key card in this hand, if it comes a blank I'd be prepared to fold to a big bet (must be at least 3/4pot to pot size to get me off it) or otherwise check the option of a cheap/free look at the river card.

On the flop you have a monster draw - you're even a favourite over top set, the only thing you don't want to see is him having a spade draw - and even the worst of those leaves you around 35% to win.

So how do you play it?

Playing it aggressively has merit - you can either pick up the pot uncontested or get your chips in the middle as a likely favourite to win.
You could play it passively and keep the pot small, maybe using your position to pick the pot up on a later street if you miss.

In the hand you've made a mid sized raise which I don't like:
Raising to 7500 means he has to call 5000 into a pot of 15200 - > 3:1 which is very good odds - you want to pick the pot up or get the chips in, this raise seems less likely to do that than a larger raise.
It leaves us playing a big pot on the turn with a draw that will have lost a lot of it's value if it misses, and possibly have scared off our opponent if it hits! It could also lead to the very unwelcome prospect of having to fold to a decent sized bet on the turn.

Don't think those odds are quite right:

Open-ended straight flush draw:

• Against top pair - about a 63-37 favourite
• Against an overpair - about a 56-44 favourite
• Against two pairs - about a 53-47 favourite
• Against a higher flush draw - 44-56 underdog
• Against a set - about a 42-58 underdog

In a cash game, I love this hand.  In a tournament, it's one of those hands...that either sets you up nicely, or decimates your stack.  Interested to see the different opinions on how to play it.  Interesting hand.

I used poker stove to check, I must have misclicked one of the cards!  ;ashamed;

Against his range, you are ahead, raising has to be right. to my mind the question is the push or the value raise, with the value raise probably having greater ev and the prospect of a free turn if needed 

Im putting him on 44 here. He put out a little bet after that flop and it seems that he wants action. As you say, he also hasn't played many hands either, so he isn't going to be donking his chips off with nothing so IMO the worst hand he has would be QK. But then he could have  Qs Ks and have a pretty monster draw himself and if that is the case, you are in serious trouble. Like has been said, you give him 3:1 to call, so making it at least 10k, maybe 12.5K would be a better raise ...

Kev

Yep, there are a couple of interesting questions with regard to the flop re-raise in this type of situation...

1. If you are a favourite to win the hand against your opponent's range then why would offering him competitive odds to call the re-raise be classified as a mistake?

2. If your opponent is on one pair right now what "odds" are we actually offering? We classically think of the odds of say completing a draw but how does this work for a simple made pair? Is it possible to offer someone odds when they aren't actually drawing to any specific eventuality? E.g. He has Q-10....how does he work out if he is getting the right odds to call?

3. Finally, does a raise that invites a player to stick around actually intimidate more than a much bigger raise?

Not sure I know the answer to these points but it is something to think about. What I do know is that I would treble the bet here with a draw or top set in order to remain consistent. Does changing the amount of your standard re-raise give additional information?

Anyway, on with the hand....

Part II

Asprilla29 called the re-raise oop on a dangerous drawing board and we headed to the turn.

The Turn

The turn card was....

 6h

And we now have a board of

 4s  7s  Qd  6h

How does this card affect your thinking if at all?

Asprilla29 checks to you....Why would he do this, and what is your strategy now?

The pot is over 30k...but you still have an average stack behind and any further bet commits you to this pot...so do you take in a free river or do you commit?....don't forget we are about 15 places from the money.

Further action and the river comes on Friday

1.  because your tournament life (potentially here if you miss) is a factor..as of course is getting monster chips so they play off each other but the former can be a factor..you are favourite but you need to hit

I need time to consider the rest, back later!

I'd check, take the option for a free card and take it from there. Still prepared to lay it down if all we have at the end is middle-pair and busted flush/straight draws.

This may encourage your opponent your weak so he'll bet out regardless - that way if your hand does complete you win big and if not then you're ok to fold and although slightly depleted still be alive and kicking.

Also if you're not a big favourite then taking the pot down now can be worth more than the extra they put in to the pot. It can also simplify the decision making and stop you from making a mistake later on in the hand.

Part III

I decide to check behind Asprilla29 and see a river for free and it is...

 5c

Making a board

 4s  7s Qd  6h  5c

This completes an unlikely hand of two pairs.

Asprilla29 thinks for a moment and then moves all-in for 29,800.

The pot now has exactly 50k in it and it will cost you 29,800 of your remaining 32,500 to call...so basically everything. Do you make the call? If you do call what hand can we put our opponent on? Do you think making such a big call with a hand like this is worthwhile considering the play you have left in your stack and the close proximity to the bubble? Could we have played this hand better?

The reveal will arrive at the weekend...thanks to those who took part.

I hate that river card, it's given you just enough to make any decision hard,in all honesty I'd probably call but I think the right play may well be the fold as other than completely over-playing AQ or a hand like Pocket Jacks,tens or Kings I fear the opponent has a set - the way he's played doesn't feel like someone playing a holding that has just made the straight. Only other possibility is he's bluffing a busted flush draw but that's probably less likely.

Click the link below for the reveal:

http://www.blondepoker.com/index.php?q=node/12996 (http://www.blondepoker.com/index.php?q=node/12996)

Excellent hand and good analysis, I really am bad at putting other players on hands lol (although I think the PHA board is helping me improve so keep up the good work all).

Im raising enough on the flop to commit on the turn. I love how you played the flop, i just think you need to have the heart to move in on the turn. He has checked to you, a set doesnt check here very often. You are over-repping a big pair, set or AQ and i think versus his range and your fold equity, especially 15 from the money, you have to bet big. Quality flop play, im impressed.

Possibly you could raise a little more on the flop so ur turn decision is easier, and courage of conviction to jam the turn.

Yeah, I confess that I haven't read most of the responses in this thread but I kinda agree with this. Couple of things:

PREFLOP:

Raising the CO when folded to us this deep against a player who has not shown a tendency to aggressively defend is super standard. However, I really dislike raising to 2.2k. My standard at the 300 / 600 level is going to be 1650 or so. And I will stick to that size every time I open a pot irrespective of hand strength or position. Essentially, whether you make it 1650 or 2200 is not going to change the range of hands that he calls, folds or raises with that much. You will want to be opening a lot of pots, so it is better to keep the pot as small as possible in relation to the stacks behind as it makes continuation betting; floating; etc much easier and cheaper postflop.

Keep active for as cheap as possible and leaving yourself the widest range of postflop actions as possible.


FLOP:

Well done. We flopped Gin. You have a whopper draw and folding shouldn't ever enter our mind. However, it is not a bad result for us to take this pot without showdown. As such, after he bets 2500 my concern would be to raise the flop:

- Our equity will always be greatest on the flop so if all the money has to go in that is where we want to get it in;
- We are deep enough to fire two big ugly shells at this guy and make it tough for him OOP;

Therefore, why not raise to 10 or 11k? This will make the flop re - raise potsize. And it will allow us to shove the turn potsize again if he checks to us. If we have completed it's for value of course - but when we miss it gives him a real decision as to whether to call or fold.

AS PLAYED:


On the turn, as played I would take the free card. We now have caught some showdown value and possibly a few extra outs - but if we get it in here now we will be taking the worst of it against a reasonable range of holdings for him to get over the line with just the one card coming.

As played, on the river you beat a bluff and should fold. He is highly unlikely to overshove KQ or AQ. He would be deliberately turning showdown value into a bluff and that is highly unlikely to be the case.

Spades have missed of course, and a draw can make up some of his range given the half pot lead, call on the flop and turn check - but that is a good reason for him to shove a set after a whiffed checkraise on the turn; and he could have backed into an unlikely straight with 8x of spades or 88.