blonde poker forum

For this weeks hand i am going to discuss with you all a hand from the iPoker ECOOP main event which took place last night.

The Tournament Details:

Event: ECOOP Main Event $1,000+$60

Starting Stack: 5,000

Prize Pool/Runners:  $1,000,000/992

Blinds: 1500/3000

Average Chips: 50,000


The tournament climate:

The bubble has just burst after an extremly drawn out process there are exactly 100 runners left and you find yourself on 131k you are 3rd out of the remaining 100 and have been extremly active in the last 2hrs whilst the last 30 players left with no money, in that time you showed 0 hands but moved from 25k to 70k before having the joy of calling a 40k push with KK. Because the bubble has burst 2 new players have joined the table, one of whom is the chip leader. He is sitting on a 170k stack, you have never played him before.


The hand:

You post the 1500 small blind and are dealt  Tc Ts its a 10 handed table, UTG+1 on a stack of 45k limps, he has been extremely passive in the past 2 hrs and you have been taking extreme liberty's by raising his blind every round, he managed to get a double during the bubble period with AA but other than that has not played a hand of note. UTG+2 is the CL new to the table he also limps for 3k. It then comes to the button who has given you walks for the last 2hrs, he hasn't done anything in 2hrs, he is on 50k and also limps. The BB is playing 40k, you have really been having fun with him, raising his blind every round for about 4hrs, he has even taken to begging you not to in the chat the guy started using his full time every hand 2hrs before the bubble burst, he is the pure definition of scared money.


My action pre flop:

We have multiple street decisions in this pot so i am going to skip ahead to the flop, i decided to raise this pot to 15k, i thought i might get one of the limpers to shove or pick up the 15k in the middle, obviously the only man i was worried about was the CL, of course poker is a bitch so they all pass except the CL who flat calls the 12k more.

What range of hands do you put the CL on? Would you have played differently pre flop?


The flop comes down as good as it gets:

Td 7h 5s


The action is on you and there is 39k in the middle.....

Bet 12k, make it try to look like a weak continuation bet thats screaming to be reraised because you've got AK and missed the flop.

24k. If he raises that I would shove over the top. Lets go.

Sounds good to me, just a standard cbet that looks no different to your general pattern of play. This is imo is the best way to disguise your hand, plus it obviously builds a pot where im already thinking i want to get the lot in at some point in this hand and will be miffed if i don't.

Definitely betting, no need to get funky and give free cards/ let draws in

I bet c20k, standard c-bet type bet (I could have it or I couldn't type bet) and hope he shoves

I suspect he flat calls and it get scary on the turn!

Bet 18k.

You've raised the pot to $15k, so that's only a min raise from you have I read that right?  If so, the BB could have anything, but you've hit a nice hand.

I raised to 5xBB and the BB folded......

i bet 18-24k

slightly more than the preflop bet but small enough to let him think he has fold equity and that you are weak

well ur hoping he has QQ or JJ....looking for a non- ace or king on the flop.....he will raise AA or KK probably....cant see him chasing u away on his percieved rebluff when u C bet..why get involve with a big stack like urs atr this stage  ( but we don't have that much info yet )


if thats the case u might get his stack

so im gambling on a -------

check raise ( falling short of the all in )

He very likely has a drawing hand of some kind so either a medium to small pair or a connector.  So there really isn't any point in trying to suck him in.  He has either hit a set or has picked up a draw, so bet the pot or thereabouts.  

I like the bet post flop with your image you may get one or 2 of them out slightly unfortunate that all bar one pass and you hit a dream flop. On the flop I'm betting somehwere in the region of 26k, hoping that he has JJ + and is prepared to play back at me, I don't want him flat calling and hitting a danger card on the turn, I am happy for him to fold here or to push. 

you can't possibly want him to fold!!!

Move of Honour, obv.

I'd rather than than just a flat call and he spikes the danger card that makes me go busto :)

I have lost count of the number of times I have been smooth called in that position only for matey to hit a bigger set.  My preference would be that he played back and I get it all in the middle before the turn my hand holds up and hey presto we have mega chips.  But it never seems to work like that.

Whoa some people have real "monsters under the table" syndrome here. The button has AA-JJ very rarely. He has limped the button behind 2 limpers and then flatted a raise from the sb. This is not how a big pair often plays. His range generally is made up of suited connectors and small pairs here imo.

In my sleep deprived state i may have been ambiguous.....

To confirm the CL is the only other player in this pot, he is UTG+2 Button BB and UTG+1 all passed pre

Don't knock ambiguity - in my working days being ambiguous got me out of all sorts of problems.  "Oh I see what you mean, no thats not what I meant, but too late now anyway...."

whoops, I'll reread :D

I'd still stick 18k in here.

I check.

i check too. What are u scared of? If he has JJ-AA or a set hes going nowhere, he is only folding and under pair that hasnt made a set or aq /ak etc so no need to scare him of. Check call the flop and bet the turn is my thinking.

hmmm he shouldn't have that unless he's pat passive from passive town (but I'm quite often wrong)

or trappy tony from trapsville........ shit happens

:D

Standard c-bet of 25k. Checking here is horrid as flushy needs to bet his monsters to get his bluffs through and get his big hands paid.

raisey daisey pre-flop is fine..and I'm sure as hell betting out on the flop more often than not. I always lead out with my sets...simply because it builds pots. there is about 40k in the pot..let's make it 25k to play (which leaves you 90 ish behind) and hope he comes over the top..

bet to find out where you are

absolutely, bet for information..never for value.

I want to know if I am ahead here.


 /:-|

I like this line, its my standard line the question is do you change that for table conditions, no-one was doing anything funky in this comp they were all playing like scared money, it is nigh on impossible that someone is going to make a move in this tournament.



I agree with these 2 posts his range here is probably smaller pairs and suited connectors, JJ-AA i say here approx 1% of the time.

Doubleup's line makes sense, this is a good flop for our oppo's most likely range.



What danger cards are there? How can you possibly want your oppo to fold when you have the nuts?



I like this line as well as Longy's. The question is why do you flat call then bet the turn? This is going to stop him bluffing the turn, its the way i would bluff in these spots more than VB, it really limits his options IMO.



:D

The fact that he has 170k in chips and is leader of whole tourney indicates to me that he is not playing like scared money, more like he has been using his chip stack to bully his opponents on other tables. The fact that he is new to the table means he doesn't know how you've acquired your chips either. I'm hoping he is going to continue trying to set a precedence of "I'm boss and I'm going to put you in your place" - hence the weak bet.

Jaysus Flushy, just get some money in the pot.

yeah Flushy..you nit! :)

As you raised preflop, the trouble with check/calling is that you're telling him you've hit a monster.   If you limp preflop, then you can afford to check/call here without too much worry, but I think to get maximum value you need to come out betting here.

I do....patience.

It's a fair point, he may well be out of character with the rest of the comp.

I'd normally put in a c-bet here whether I hit the flop or not, the problem here is you have such a big part of it and its hard to put your opponent on anything he can play back at you with other than 89 or a possible under-set. I know it looks suspicious but I'd check and hope to induce a bluff or if it goes check-check I don't mind giving him a free card and hoping he catches up. Very unlikely he's going to outdraw you on the turn.

I'd bet at least 20k into the pot, my reasoning is that if cl has qq/jj he may raise to find out where he is, or if he has a draw of any sort you don't want him to hit it cheap and then see what 4th street comes.

If an under card that helps a draw comes out then i would bet again but this time hard pot size maybe, if trip 10s are the best hand and he isnt drawing he may well stay in the pot and the money looks like its going your way and you can get a chance to value bet the river. If the card is high but not helping a draw i'm going to bet still but a little less than before. If he reraises me here i decide if he has top trips or not and then either push or make the greatest laydown in history :)

Hows that flushy?

I'd jam it in with a big over-bet maybe all-in so it looks like a scared bet that doesn't want a call - that way you're more likely to get a call from any number of hands.

If he folds - show the hand then when you do play subtly they really won't know what to put you on!!

I am not sure i understand this logic, under-repping a hand then raising to "find out" if you are behind. Surely your oppo is still going to think he is good with a wider range than you as you have under-repped.....

I guess that's why 'betting for information' is not really a winning strategy.

I like this line as well as Longy's. The question is why do you flat call then bet the turn? This is going to stop him bluffing the turn, its the way i would bluff in these spots more than VB, it really limits his options IMO.

By the time turn comes then there is more than enough in there to be happy with. Unlikely that the Chip leader is ready to bluff the rest of his chips off to the only other person at the table that can do any significant  damage to him. 30 - 40k bet on the turn. Win the pot or maybe even squeeze one last call from him. As before if he has a set already or over pair you really dont want this going check check.

I like the analysis here, i don't agree though with being happy with what's in the pot. Hands like this don't grow on trees they set you up for final tables.

You make a good point though if he has a 1 pair hand he can control the pot size on the turn with a check behind however if we fire he has to pretty much jam or pass, and he could well favour the jam.

I am not sure i even include an over pair in his range though, i don't know how this thread developed into a "how to stack an overpair with a set" when everything suggests he doesn't have a big pair.

Nonsense IMO. I'm not putting him on an overpair (and you can't really given preflop) and I would remove AJs+ from his range a lot also. You already agreed earlier in the thread that mid pairs and suited connector type hands are most plausible - so this flop is "in his neighborhood" so to speak.

- So he may have a non setted one pair; flopped a draw; flopped a lower set (obv unlikely).
- Or he has badugi and will simply fold the flop; or maybe take one small stab.
- Or he has badugi and he'll get stubborn and try something stupid if you c - bet. That's because this is a 1k tourney (even if it is on ipoker) and people will expect their opponents to c - bet most of their raising range most of the time. And people love to say "I PUT HIM ON AK" on flops like this and go nuts - either calling down with one pair or making a big move in order to fold you out.

Whatever, I don't put him on an overpair. But fuck it, I'm betting. This is a really simple flop spot and I am slightly confused as to why the analysis of death is going on.

BET.

OK so my action.

I decided this was a terrific chance to get a monster stack and i didn't want to miss out any value with this hand. Given how nobody had played back at me all comp i decided to check hoping he either took a stab now or could catch something on the turn to have a go with.

He checked behind....

The turn:

 Qc



Given his check on the flop how do we adjust his range now, how do we play the hand now an overcard has dropped creating possibility for any 2 broadway cards?

do what you should of done on the flop and bet out

but this time bet the pot make him pay if he wants to draw out on you

Meh i don't like the flop check. We are now going to struggle to get our stack in,  which is surely the ultimate goal. Also the overcard may kill our action here (it may well help it), does a non setted-pair is going to have trouble paying us.

Checking again is losing even more value from our monster. Bet i make it 25k to 30k, and hope he comes along.

I hate the check on the flop..it now means that on the turn you have a small pot you're playing with (atleast not as big a pot as it should be).

in the name of all that is holy bet out here and get the pot up to a size where we can see all the chips in the middle and get ourselves a very big stack.

;iagree;  with Longy and Boldie. 

I wanted to bet the flop. But we didn't. We checked the flop to hopefully get him to do something on the turn. Silly stuff IMO, but whatever, if that's the plan for the hand we should now check again.

Nothing wrong with the check at all IMO. People talk about building a big pot but if you bet out I think most of the time villain is folding - you need to give him a chance to take a stab or at least catch up on the turn.

I'd now be betting around 25k on the turn and hope the Q has helped his hand in some way.

cuuuuuurghshjhugugugugugusojoijjshshdkfhfhgfdkjdsgdfgfkjdbg

fyp

You've raised preflop so villian is assuming something, what does he put you on?  Probably something quite good.  Checking the flop after raising before it isn't a good move I don't think.   If he's not bet on the flop, I can't see a Q making him likely to bet.  Assuming we're still ahead and the queen has helped him, you'd have to put him on AQ or KQ here and given our actions up to now, I wouldn't have thought he's going to go crazy with TPTK at the moment.

Need to be betting still and hoping the queen has helped him (but not helped enough for trip queens obv)  If it has, I'd expect a call, if not then he'll perhaps fold but you'd not be getting any more chips off him anyway.

Why is villain folding most of the time when you bet on the flop? You have no info on Villain other than that he has been building a very nice chipstack. Unless he is Mr Lucky Luck from Lucksville he is probably one of the few other players that is not scared to play in this tourney and therefore won't fold like a cheap suit everytime someone bets into him. You can always give Villain here room to hang himself by leading out on the flop.


As for betting on the turn...I don't mind a bet on the turn (in fact I advocated it) but not because "I hope it has helped him in some way" that's just not right. There are but a few hands that the Q will have helped that he gets his chips in with (AQ and QQ really being the only ones) if you lead out here he is more than likely to fold anything worse..(maybe get a flat call out of him when he holds KQ...in which case he probably is Lucky Luckbox from Lucksville..or when he holds the old J9 K10) as he knows you should have something better than just a shitty queen here...so;.

You're not hoping that the Queen "helped his hand in some way"..the queen is a card YOU represent when you bet out, not one you hope HE HAS. You're hoping he already has a hand which is not afraid of the queen..and if he has a hand like that he already would have given you action on the flop..so there is no reason not to bet out on the flop for that reason.

I like Lloyds line now that we haven't bet out on the flop and now that I've thought about it as you're wanting him to take a stab at the pot.. Although I bet out with most of my sets on the flop and there fore don't find myself in this situation very often I am not quite sure as to what line to take here with regards to check-raising/check-calling and what to do on the turn and would be interested to hear it (Check call turn check raise river would be my guess) . (I shall therefore now withdraw from this thread and just read what the Laggie McLagLag's like Lloyd and Flushy think.

Why is checking the flop silly? The pot already equates to 1/3rd our stack, pot building here is not really as important.

Erm not strictly true, you have 116k back with a pot of 37k. Two streets of value don't get you full stack in here unless you massively overbet the river. We now need him to do some of the work for us by raising or betting. It is an important skill to realise how many streets of value you can get from your hand and how many you need given the stacks to reach our ultimate goal.

Also i will say for the last time villan here RARELY has a big hand preflop here, this is why its a good flop to bet and why the q is probably a bad card in that its an action killer.

but if the read of a sub 1010 pair or suited connectors is correct, as most of us seem to think

then shouldn't we check here again and then make a "desperate" overbet on the river?

I would have bet the flop, but as we didn't and we think the Q is an action killer, we have to check it again don't we and then make it look like an attempt to buy pot on river?

I've lost interest and flown to Paris.  I had kangaroo for lunch although I suspect it might actually have been wallaby.

For the reasons stated in my earlier post.

I really am a nit. Seriously. Tight as a drum.

pmsl

I'd expect him to fold to any bet because of the kind of hand I put him on and the kind of hand I think he's putting me on. I suppose there's a chance he plays back with 88 or 99 but with no real draws out there apart from 89 the chances are he missed completely. If he flopped a set you're getting his chips however the hand plays out.



Its a tough pot to get anything out of whatever way you look at it. I know its grasping at straws a little but IMO there's a better chance he has a Q in his hand than any kind of hand that was helped by that flop.


You've lost me a little there mate. If you're representing the Q you're hoping he has KK+ in which case you would have got him to play back on the flop anyway. The whole point of checking the flop was to either let him take a stab or give him a free card to improve.

OK. Some of the theories about this hand are losing me.

Firstly, the cl has just arrived at the table and we have never played with him before. How do we even begin to put him on a hand....where would we start? I don't think plucking a range of hands from thin air and pasting them into this situation is at all helpful. The cl could have anything and his style of play is unknown.

So what do we KNOW? We know he is the cl and he has been winning pots-a-plenty....so he will be feeling confident about now. His eagerness to carry forward what was happening on his previous table to this one is clear because he limps into the first available pot he can. He is not looking to settle in and size the table up, he wants to get involved and he wants to do that by limping early. He does not choose to get involved in his first pot aggressively. I think that is an important fact.

When the raise comes in everyone gets out of the way (because they don't have raising hands) apart from the cl. He calls with a hand he wouldn't raise with. The information we have is scant for sure...but we can assume from what information we do have that the cl is not the most aggressive player. He is limping and calling rather than betting and raising. What's more his cl status and current high confidence mean that he is not going to be pushed out of a pot he wants to play.

So with this in mind where does the check on the flop come from?? I would bet the flop regardless of any other information actually....for all the reasons that have already been stated. But using the information we do have suggests pot-building can begin immediately. Why check to the caller hoping he suddenly finds the balls to take the lead when he has already shown he doesn't do this? But if you take the lead he has shown an inclination to follow! Information is there to be used and this is the ONLY information we have. He is CALLING your bets so why wouldn't you bet?

Very good post mate. 

I sometimes get put off reading some of your posts, as i think they can be too analytical although generally they have all the correct info.  But above post is concise and to the point.  More of the same. 

He could but he is the CL in a $1000 FO that has been running 7hrs, chances are he knows how to play enough for us to make a pretty comfortable assumption about his range. Poker is a game of incomplete information, forming assumptions is part of the game, if you only make assumptions once you have seen x amount of hands you are missing out on some key information gathering.



He may well be very aggressive but he has limped because a short stack who he doesn't know has limped in EP, i consider myself to be pretty aggressive and i would also limp the villans hand here given an unknown short stack limping, on a new table which is 10 handed and after we had just gone through the bubble.

So you won't make assumptions about his range, but you will make the assumption that he is eager to play lots of pots based purely on limping his first hand at the table?!?! "He wants to get involved and wants to do it by limping early" is it not also possible that he just has a hand that is a must to play, and is a standard limp from his position?




I don't understand either how you can make the assumption that he is 'not going to be pushed around' based on 1 play where he limp calls in position after an EP limp from a short stack.




Given my analysis of how our assumptions about an unknown player vastly differ i hope you can now understand why i chose the check line. You bet the flop to pot build, i would 100% do this if the pot was 20k, however its 39k! It's already a pretty big pot and a bet followed by a raise leads to either folds or 3 bet ai's at this stage of a tournament, a pot building bet is not relevant here.

I am not checking to him on the hope that he has found his balls, i am doing it as i gave him a rough range pre and i think he has either smacked it or missed it, checking here is optimal against that range (unless he is an aggresive lunatic who is going to start smashing in 70k on a bluff on his first hand at the table, even if he is he will prob do that if i bet a blank turn anyway)

If i take the lead he has shown an inclination to follow?!?!?! Eh? What the hell does that mean? He just wants to copy me and so what ever i do he will do?



Why don't i just shove then given he is showing a 100% call rate against my bets?

Posted by: Royal Flush


Ok, allow me to clarify why this is a credible assumption to make. In fact you answer this question yourself here...

Posted by: Royal Flush

The CL of the tournament feels wary of the EP short stack limp and this makes him limp as well. So firstly, the big stack being apprehensive about the short stack are the first signs that he is more of a caller then a bettor. Either this is true....or alternatively he just wants to limp with a limping hand and this can also be classed as passive big stack play.

More importantly....it gets to the sb, namely yourself, and you jam in a raise!! You are not only unfazed by the EP short stack limp but ALSO by the CL limp behind!! Not only this...but you are also happy to surrender position to anyone for the rest of the hand.

It is crystal clear to everyone that you have a bigger hand than the CL right now...including the CL himself...and yet he still calls anyway!! So he is prepared to chase you down...so he wants to play pots...so he wont be pushed around. These are pretty good assumptions to make based on the fact he knows he's behind but limps then calls anyway. A better assumption to make than he has been playing for 7 hours and so we can put him on a range at any rate.

As an unknown player the CL MUST put you on a big pair or at the very least AK/AQ....like you said, you were hoping for a shove from someone...and this is what it looks like. This is why the check on the flop is confusing!! What hand wouldn't bet the flop? Considering the CL has been playing for 7 hours it's reasonable to assume he's won many-a-pot by coming over the top of standard AK/AQ missed c-bets and this is what he may well have done here. By the turn AQ has now hit...so he's behind to any big pair and now AQ as well...I just don't know what hand WE are representing that will give the CL any inclination that he has us beat. Betting the flop encourages him to come over the top if aggressive...or may induce a call if passive...and it pot builds which is always important...and it protects the equity already in there...it shows the table who's still the daddy...and it disguises your hand better. All good reasons to bet.

Risking an outdraw and our tournament life when a little under the chip average is sitting in the middle is senseless unless we have a mighty convincing story to tell. And I don't know what that story is. 

These were the parts I laughed loudest at. Solid Gold.

Lloyd the original sentence is this....


but you only want to quote half the sentence....


So the point is why indulge ANY risk at all when the story will be less convincing than c-betting anyway? Risking everything is always worthwhile if it is backed by credibility. I don't know what the credibility is here...so I asked the question...and contributed to the discussion.

You have not answered that point...but have chosen to chop a sentence in half, take it out of context and then laugh at it. Now that really is funny....and rather childish come to think of it.

Oh, I fogot the "story to tell" part. My bad.

Well i have been playing with the short stack for the last 3 hrs and have seen him limp pass on a few occasions so i am happy to raise, also i have only 1 player behind me and a lot more money in the pot, as well as being OOP. I am not "happy to surrender position to anyone for the rest of the hand" i am in the SB i AM oop for the rest of the hand, if you know any way i can somehow not 'surrender' position when in the SB that would be fantastic to know.



So he limps with a limping and and see#s the 2nd cl raise, now he knows he just has to call 12k to play a pot in position with a hand that plays well against my perceived range, i don't think that is just because he 'doesn't want to be pushed around'



I thought it is stupid to "pluck a range from thin air" against an unknown oppo? Please can you get one side of the fence or the other! At any rate my raise here is easily just limper's tax.



You won't let me assume his range but we can assume he is a regular raiser of C-B's?? Although earlier you stated he is a passive player given his rather condeming 100% VPIP rate and 0% PFR

Right so he is supposed to put us on a big pair or AK, so we should lead? So that he can try to bluff of us a big pair?!!??!?! I check here so it looks like i either have AK/AQ or a complete rank hand that i tried to squeeze with but gave up, reason being its pretty obvious to even the most average of players that the flop is smack in the range he is likely to be. Or do you just always C-B with no thought to your oppo's range?

How does betting protect equity that is already in there? In fact what does that even mean? Building the pot is not important for reasons stated previously. I really don't care about being 'the daddy'. As for disguising my hand, all it says is i probably have an over pair rather than a set, not much use against a hand that might well be air.

Oh Jesus, now the wife has woken up to continue the Mantis flaming. Look I've already had your husband nagging me for basic explanations today....but as ever I am happy to give you some stuff to think about

Please try to appreciate the difference in mentality a short stack has before and after the bubble has burst. Relying on pre-bubble info is well flaky here. The difference matters because it adds credibility to your raise.

I'm not saying you are...but this is how the rest of the table see the situation. You have a hand that you are prepared to play OOP against a finger-on-the-trigger short stack and the CL...this adds credibility to your raise.

I don't think it's just that either but two table captains are meeting in a pot for the first time and as such the battle for dominance is a factor.

I have just provided the evidence as to why your raise has supporting credibility and as such the ability to narrow a range is far easier for your hand. You must be able to see the difference in the evidence?

Feel free to assume a range and if you can decipher that the flop is smack in his range 1st hand at the table then fair play to you. But assuming this guy has experienced missed c-bets in 7 hours of play is a reasonable assumption to make.

I mean I could go on indefinitely but it's pointless because I don't want to ping pong ideas you don't get backwards and forward.


This is all I wanted to know. What hand do you think you are representing? We have just reached the most gambletastic point in the tournament...one short stack is in the pot, along with the CL who could knock you out...as well as the button limper and another player still to act. Despite this you raise, and you raise in the sb with the intention of playing your hand OOP. It looks like you have a big pair or AQ/AK...if not then what does it look like...particularly to the newly arrived CL? A limper's tax move would take balls here...balls you loose on the flop...seems strange.

I thought my contribution was fair enough...why does it have to get picked to bits? Stating what range you are selling to your opponent here would help. In your last HOTW I wanted to know how the aggressive maniac being scared of the Ace was a good story to tell and the same question about your line applies here. Your preflop actions are that of a big hand...that disappears on the flop...only to presumably resurface again later in the hand. Whilst you and Lloyd may take turns reading these stories to the kids at bedtime I'm interested to know how they stack up at the table. So what are you representing?

Incidentally, when are Blonde's answer to Terry & June going to realise they are never going to be able to ruffle my feathers?

 rotflmfao

;popcorn;

lolz.

Mantis, a poker hand analysis board is not about ruffling other people's feathers, or stopping in for a quick ego boost so that your feathers are in pristine shape. It's about improving your game through discussion and debate. I don't give a fuck about being proved right or wrong, I just want to talk and think poker so that it improves my theory base which translates into money won at the table in practice. And that's what it comes down to. Strive to improve so that you win more money.

I don't ridicule your posts because I take some pleasure from knowing that I am better at poker than you or whatever - or out of a desire to prove that as a fact. It's just that your advice would prove costly for any beginners reading the board if they followed it too closely and gave it the gravitas you seem to think it deserves.

But whatever, carry on talking about "tournament life" and "making -EV plays in order to dig yourself out of holes" and "betting to find out where you are in hands" etc, etc. I'll continue to tap the tank.

By the way, it may interest you to note that Terry and June are in disagreement with regards to this hand. Just saying.

Posted by: LuckyLloyd

We agree on something Lloyd.

The reasons you say you post are the reasons I do post. A debate incorporates a range of opinions and those opinions often differ...I don't mind that. However, while I have posted my strategy here, explained it, and left it open for debate your total response to those thoughts were...

Posted by: LuckyLloyd

So forgive me for taking the all I want to do is talk and debate poker comment with a pinch of salt.

If you are indeed concerned about novice players and new members I would suggest a well-reasoned argument to show them why you disagree would be more beneficial to their education. In addition, comments like that discourage those very same members from getting involved and posting their own thoughts. If all you want to do is talk poker then talk it and allow others to draw their own conclusions from the ensuing debate. But even in this post that details your healthy intentions you can't miss an opportunity to have a dig.

But you're right, my feathers are in pristine shape as always.

Another great HA thread, thanks June

Flushy has to be June .... doesnt he ?

Doh!! my bad

Edited

(http://i219.photobucket.com/albums/cc18/mikebrooksusa/terryandjune.jpg)

 ;tightend; ;applause; ;tightend; ;applause; ;tightend; ;applause; ;tightend; ;applause;

 ;tightend; rotflmfao

lmao..well done

Ah sure, I really couldn't allow myself to pass up an edge now, could I?

Whoa some people have real "monsters under the table" syndrome here. The button has AA-JJ very rarely. He has limped the button behind 2 limpers and then flatted a raise from the sb

Let's not let this thread go off topic. Please stick to the Terry and June theme.

Favourite episodes?

the one where Lloyd & Flushy ... sorry Terry & June get their new vehicle is one of my favs...

I see Lloyd and Flushy were going to meet up but Flushy had a bit of trouble finding Lloyd at the station on the way to the casino


YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QA9IQycyMX4

if you want less words and even more concise, bring back Totalise!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

We were very happy with Totalise, who's posts I respect enormously and he did a couple of superb HOTW's. It was entirely his decision to take a rest from HOTW

Oh well thats bad news indeed. I didnt see anything on the forum about this. Thanks for all your analysis Totalise:)  Hurry back :)

So now my turn action:


I fired 19k into the 39k pot and my oppo flat called. The river came the  Aspades



Making the board Td 7h 5s Qc  Aspades



I now fire 32k into the 77k pot, does anyone bet a different amount here? If so why?

My oppo now makes it 64k, a raise of 32k. I have 65k back at this stage, what do i do?

all in baby

if he's hit back door spades on you ul nh gg

I'd probably bet a wee bit more TBH, 32k looks a bit milky its almost inviting a call and some times thats a bit transparent, I probbaly make it 45k for him to go as soon as he's plays back I ship and he calls with AQ.  Good night vienna.  :)

I push.

He's the CL in a $1k tourney, and as you say, it's been 7 hours. I can't see him calling with K-J preflop to be fair, and A-A/Q-Q, he bets the flop. There's no flush draw (I see 2 spades Tighty, not 3) so I have to put him on A-Q/A-10s. These are the only 2 hands I can see him calling with preflop on that board that will pay you off. Anything else, he passes.

Ship and laugh when he shows 8s9s or 4s6s. I think ur bet looks a bit milky too. Id rather a lot less or a fair bit more.

p.s how did you not win this comp?

Getting cold decked and losing a flip for the CL....

call

lol.

Flushy, get the rest of your chips in with a fistpump. You can probably stand away from your screen and do some manner of pelvic thrust celebration dance as well while you're at it.

I like the betsize btw.

They finally agree on something.  Woooooo!

push for me.

why is everyone saying a flush, where?

He's got kj, you mangled it flushy!!! ::)

Apart from him having 55 or 77 i dont see how you think CL is getting all his money in on turn or river against 2nd CL without flush or straight and i dont know how much action he's giving you if the board pairs so i didnt like the line but now were here, shove it in and hope he mangled his AQ or watch him fold his 89.

My error read  Qc  as the   Qs


I still shove in as quickly as I can!

I have returned from Paris.  Are all your "hands of the week" designed to prove that you are the luckiest player that has ever lived?

Thet are metagame posts so flushy gets more value from his hands, basically he posts every hand where he played a monster slower than a 100yr old Tortoise, so that everytime he bets a flop everyone thinks he is bluffing because he would check if he hit the flop.

Shhhh

i like the 32k bet on the end.....it could appear to your opponent that you have a hand that you dont want to commit all your stack to...leaving enough behind to get away if he plays back at you on the river.perfectly sized for him to pressure you if he has been floating you with air/weak holding

I want to let this run a little longer to see some more discussion on the river play.

His raising range on the end is quite high, i don't think we can deny that, the question is what raises and calls a push? I think he only raises with sets str8 and AQ poss AT. I think we can sensibly rule out AA/QQ from his range and probably AQ (raise pre) and AT (prob raises/passes pre and prob bets flop) this leaves us with set and str8.

So the question is assuming the range i have come out with, 55 77 KJ, is it correct to 3 bet shove the river?

come on now flushy don't be thinking about complicated stuff like what he could be raising with that calls a shove,

YOU HAVE A SET FFS POOOOOOSH!!!

What does he call a 3 bet with?

We're getting pretty close to talking ourselves out of a push here and making a "conservative" play. I would still push here yes..if he has caught the straight that's fair enough but  I reckon, considering the way you played the hand, you should still push.

KJ obv

Why? What calls?




lolaments

Like you said 55 and 77 calls..and KJ obviously did judging by your reaction ;) You could say "Now that you've ballsed the hand up completely should you still push on the river?"

Maybe even his AQ might call....though somewhat doubtfull.

2 out of 3 times you'll win..the other time you lose and can moan about how it was a bad beat..when actually you just F'ed up the hand...win win situation ;)

I've sent the reveal to snoops. So we shall all see soonish :D

You shove and he passes, right? :D

nah...flushy shoves..he calls and turns over AJ..thereby proving Flushy's old theory that everyone at the poker table is an idiot untill proven otherwise :)

I call here.

Yes you miss out on value off lower sets but that's it really. I think flushy's range of set or straight as the only likely hands that call a push is likely and given the depreciating value of chips factor, and that the extra 32k or so chips you make are not that significant to your stack whereas the 32k chips you lose are significantly more valuable to you, it makes the conservative play correct here imo.

The way he plays the hand is significantly weighted toward K-J too imo. The way the hand pans out almost exactly fits the profile of how he would play K-J. Ok, so the preflop call is marginal but he has chips and it's not impossible he's decided to take a chance with this as he holds position on the preflop raiser. Every action post flop fits KJ perfectly.

If his range included hands like A-T A-Q A-K, I think a push would be better but as these hands are extremely unlikely given the lack of preflop raise and lack of flop bettage, I think by the end you can virtually put him on nothing (not that likely), a set or the nuts. I would expect a player to normally play the turn on this board with a set a little more aggressively too so it's probably close to a 50-50 if he has set or straight here.

So call and if he turns over a set, no worries you've lost a little bit of value here, if he turns over a bluff, well you've lost nothing and if he turns over the nuts, hard cheese, but you have 10 BBs and are no where near out of it given the average stack of 15 BBs...

Remarkably similar to my reveal, only far better written.

Almost as if you were in the same room...........

JC aint gay is he? :)

;carlocitrone;

lol ZeeJustinaments in PHA!

Well we were when i played the hand, but not atm

The reveal to this hand can be found here:

http://www.blondepoker.com/index.php?q=node/14310 (http://www.blondepoker.com/index.php?q=node/14310)

nice....you giant..giant luckbox :)

For what it's worth, I like the thinking in the showdown, good stuff Flushy

agreed the reason as to why calling is better than shoving is well thought out and something I will be looking at in my own play.

Couldnt disagree more. At this stage and the hand ranges you can put him on the straight and overset is so unlikely that you always always shove here. Im flabbergasted at this.

lol

Just caught up with the result of this hand and one thing that strikes me is the amount of members who say they would push on the river. These are the words of cash game players and we are playing a tournament.

JungleCat scores a bullseye with his reading of the situation.

To put nothing into the pot when ahead and then to put everything into the pot the only time you fall behind against the CL when you were 3rd in the tournament would be a real poker horror show. It would be like waking up naked next to an obese two-headed monster the day after the office Xmas party. You would be smacking yourself in the face all the way home.

Your first priority in a tournament is SURVIVAL and your secondary consideration is chip accumulation. YOU CANNOT ACCUMULATE CHIPS IF YOU GET KNOCKED OUT. This is a basic fact. Tis why any skirmish with the CL should be avoided if possible...when I talk about protecting equity I'm including the tournament life token you toss into the middle when you take him on.

In this example K-J is so possible. The CL KNOWS you have a hand (probably AK) and his bet tells you he wants more chips in anyway. Calling is your only play now. If he flopped a set then the value you loose is the muff-up fine you pay for not betting the flop. But if he does show broadway you are still alive....and this is your priority.

To say that it's just unlucky if he shows the str8 is misguided. YOU gave him a FREE passage to that str8 and when it arrived YOU put all your chips in. This is not unlucky. This is very bad play.

So you have fallen into bed with the obese two-headed monster after the party. Is this unlucky? No. YOU got so drunk she looks like a page 3 model. That is your fault. Now that your are in this mess you should wear a condom? For pity's sake wear a condom!! Saying..."Well if I get her up the duff and we have a small two-headed dragon-child together that's just unlucky"....is both a terrifying thought and also just plain wrong.

Betting the flop gets all the chips in and is like pulling the office darling....a far more enjoyable experience.

I should have just shoved the flop, after all he obv had a set.

Two heads you say?  That could be handy!!

No, you should bet the flop for all the reasons I gave. If you are going to risk everything from a position of great strength then lets do it when we have it. Waiting until we possibly don't have it and then risking everything is not really necessary.


It's not really about how unlikely he has us beat...but more that he is unlikely to call with anything that doesn't have us beat. That 32k is worth more in front of us than it is in the middle because of the possibility that he does have it. There is plenty enough in the pot if he doesn't. The two eventualities are CL or OUT if you push and CL or still IN if you call.

So what someone else has already said but in 3 X the words yeah?

Don't forget the most bizarre analogy on a poker forum ever!

I totally get this Mantis, but lets use our brain for a minute. We know a lot about oppo, we have 3 streets of information.
The pot is already huge, and the last amount we can win is also a big big chunk at this stage. Maximising chip extraction is a big big thing. Opponent cannot be a mug to have got this far in the comp and be the CL. Therefore his betting patterns can be read pretty soundly no?  Look at preflop , flop etc and its pretty clear that.

a) he cant have a straight.
b) he doesnt have an overset. Look at the possible ones out there and the action preflop.
c) he can have an underset and he can have a dodgy 2 pair.

Look at this in terms of probability he has you beaten, what the extra chips mean to you and your tournament life. I dont think the ratio's/probabilities add-up enough of the time to make this warrant a call. I know this looks like a hindsight post but an underset would be exactly what im putting oppo on here.

I favour the underset as the most likely hand here as well Alex, but i can't rule out the straight, his line fits KJ perfectly (excluding marginal call pre, but he may be a bit of a fish)

Oops. Forgot flop action, thought there was a bet. Ok KJ makes up a big chunk of his range on turn. I withdraw my comments. Flat call river.

I think the minimum raise on the river is the clearest piece of information in the hand and narrows his range to just five possibilities.

He is the current CL and doesn't want to loose that status anytime soon. He really doesn't want to go down to the felt in his first hand at the table. Flushy feels the same pre-flop...

So if you accept that this guy feels really strongly about his position it is clear that his river action to AT LEAST pot commit his opponent to a showdown, if not induce him to come over the top for more chips, would indicate a very strong hand. With his opponent presenting a massive danger he never does this without huge strength imo. This high risk move, and the fact he starts pumping chips when the A arrives, would point to of the very best of that 5 hand range and so it makes the straight the most likely scenario. Of course, we know from the result that his min raise was a mistake....namely pushing the 5th nuts hand against the 3rd chip leader....the same mistake we make by pushing the 4th nuts against the CL. I think both hands are being overvalued in the face of such potentially crippling danger...the "most of the time" theory is ok when your opponent has less chips or you need to take that sort of chance (which is most of the time) but not in these circumstances. While he may have one of the two hands we beat from his range....I wouldn't bet my life on it...so calling to showdown for a massive pot is the best play.

I think any player who doesn't want to take on the chipleader is flawed, anyone undaunted by the prospect is equally flawed.
There is a line in your post that makes me want to scream with frustration, anyone tell me what it is?