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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: Harry Demetriou on November 03, 2005, 09:51:07 AM



Title: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: Harry Demetriou on November 03, 2005, 09:51:07 AM
OK so you called with your 8h 4h in the small blind by tossing a 1000 chip into the pot without giving it much thought and the big blind checked.

15000 in the pot you are 6 handed and everyone has chips over the 120k mark except the button who has 50k.

and the flop is...............................................................................



 6h 9h Ks


How do you feel? What are you thinking?

Is this a good flop or a bad one?

Are you betting or checking?

If betting how much do you bet?


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: matt674 on November 03, 2005, 10:01:21 AM
and there's the reason why i folded preflop - now your stuck in a multiway pot with a drawing hand where even if you hit there's every possibility your drawing dead.


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: TightEnd on November 03, 2005, 10:05:56 AM
I'm thinking a variety of things on this flop

-it could have been a lot worse
-but it's not the perfect flop I really needed
- i could get into a lot of toruble chasing a flush against a higher draw...proceed with caution
- but then again I do have a double belly buster straight flush draw
I'm against 5 opponents out of position, I can't bet because there is likely a decent K in someone's hand...he will bet for me (intending to chase away flush draws)

The flop is both good and bad

I'm checking, with a view to having a decsion to make if there is action before it gets back to me...I'm expecting someone to bet with a K and a call by flush/straight draws because of the likelihood of decent pot odds. If I bet, I'm building a pot with something extremely marginal (apart from hitting running miracle cards) and potentially committing to the hand further down the line.

Thinking a couple of steps ahead, my implied odds are enormous, but my reverse implied odds are growing

I'll wait and see.Check


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: Karabiner on November 03, 2005, 10:08:53 AM
How do I feel and what am I thinking ?

A bit queasy and oh shit !

Is this a good or bad flop ?

Not sure

What would I do ?

Fire out 5k and look confident


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: matt674 on November 03, 2005, 10:09:11 AM
- but then again I do have a double belly buster straight flush draw


where? you need to hit runner runner for the straight flush (10h & 7h or 7h & 5h)


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: mikkyT on November 03, 2005, 10:12:29 AM
For me my first reaction is 'ooooh straight flush draw!'. I'm wary that someone has perhaps limped with a king, perhaps even king 9, so I check in the hopes of someone firing out a small bet where I have the odds to call.


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: mikkyT on November 03, 2005, 10:13:14 AM
- but then again I do have a double belly buster straight flush draw


where? you need to hit runner runner for the straight flush (10h & 7h or 7h & 5h)

Thats what he meant by "double belly buster" - in other words, runner runner...


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: matt674 on November 03, 2005, 10:15:00 AM
i thought a double belly buster meant there are two possible cards to give him a straight on the next card (eg if you hold J-9 on a K-10-7 flop then both the Q and the 8 give you the straight)


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: TightEnd on November 03, 2005, 10:17:08 AM
i thought a double belly buster meant there are two possible cards to give him a straight on the next card (eg if you hold J-9 on a K-10-7 flop then both the Q and the 8 give you the straight)

i need runner runner for the straight flush...


whatever it's called, i don't mind, but I've got a small chance of hitting it

Matt...leave me alone!  :D


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: mikkyT on November 03, 2005, 10:18:17 AM
i thought a double belly buster meant there are two possible cards to give him a straight on the next card (eg if you hold J-9 on a K-10-7 flop then both the Q and the 8 give you the straight)

Fair enough.... this would be a variation on the theme :D, the 7h and the 5h would be required, or a 7h and a Th


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: matt674 on November 03, 2005, 10:20:07 AM
the 5h & 3h combination does not give you a straight flush


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: matt674 on November 03, 2005, 10:22:55 AM
the chance of you hitting your straight flush is about just over 400 to 1 (provided the 5h 7h and 10h are still live), i dont think at any point in this hand are you going to be offered those kind of pot odds, implied or otherwise.

If i were in this hand i would just check and see what happened with the rest of the table


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: mikkyT on November 03, 2005, 10:23:00 AM
the 5h & 3h combination does not give you a straight flush

No, but it makes me think i've hit it and therefore any bet I make is with the upmost confidence that I have the nuts and because I can be read like a book everyones going to fold and I will win with **** all!  :rolleyes: :blonde:


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: TightEnd on November 03, 2005, 10:24:55 AM
ok, we've got one person betting 5k and three checkers.....and are about to go round in circles on straight flushes!!


anyone else?


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: The Truth on November 03, 2005, 10:25:17 AM
15k


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: matt674 on November 03, 2005, 10:27:16 AM
No, but it makes me think i've hit it and therefore any bet I make is with the upmost confidence that I have the nuts and because I can be read like a book everyones going to fold and I will win with **** all!  :rolleyes: :blonde:

all depends on which book it is, you seen how thick war and peace is? ;)


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: TightEnd on November 03, 2005, 10:30:47 AM
15k


crikey, you are going into my notebook...you'd have raised 50K preflop from the SB


maniac........ :D


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: matt674 on November 03, 2005, 11:18:09 AM
15k


why 15k?


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: Norwich Fan on November 03, 2005, 11:46:36 AM
i really cant see how u can lead out on this from first to act, with a weak flush draw, with 6 in the pot, if u throw out a bet, it has to be 15k+, then someone raises u to say 40k, and u could talk yourself into having odds to chase your flush draw, then u miss the turn, u are in an awful spot. Very dangerous, looks a lot prettier than it is, needless chance to take to lead into this, no way i would do it.


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: TightEnd on November 03, 2005, 11:48:28 AM
i really cant see how u can lead out on this from first to act, with a weak flush draw, with 6 in the pot, if u throw out a bet, it has to be 15k+, then someone raises u to say 40k, and u could talk yourself into having odds to chase your flush draw, then u miss the turn, u are in an awful spot. Very dangerous, looks a lot prettier than it is, needless chance to take to lead into this, no way i would do it.

 :hello: :goodpost:


Welcome to Blonde, a nice first post, mainly because you agreed with me!

Shame about the football team, but you can't have everything


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: jezza777 on November 03, 2005, 11:54:44 AM
Ok, I am thinking why the hell did I call preflop? flops are so much easier to play when you come in as the raiser or reraiser.
we are 6 handed what am I against? The very real possibility of a higher flush draw worries me. What are the chances of a free card if I check here? (not many) If i bet out can i take the pot ? Betting will give me information about the range I am against. Will betting buy me a free card ? Am I prepared to  commit with this hand if i get reraised? If i hit my flush is it good?  A bet here will look like a made hand if i bet hard enough to push out any other flush draws I can be more confident I am ahead if my flush hits.
Sooooo I bet out i think . I dont want to bet the pot as its a bit strong and seems like i want no action (which i dont particularly) so I bet out at around 12k thereby giving the flush draws a tough decision and making it look like I am not too scared of continuing the hand.
Tough one tho I'd be in the tank for at least an hour!


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: SupaMonkey on November 03, 2005, 12:14:55 PM
I would bet 10k and fold a reraise (in spite of the odds because then this hand is starting to do real damage to my stack).

Ok, so i'm not winning and i only have a draw but if i can thin down the field it increases my chances of winning. Also, (as it has already been mentioned) i should make everyone who is on a draw fold.



Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: matt674 on November 03, 2005, 12:20:44 PM
but is 10k into a 15k pot enough to get all the other draws to fold?

By the time the action gets round to the cut off seat who is sat there with an up and down straight draw with his 8-7 o/s the pot may well be standing at $55k, would you fold an up and down straight draw when its only costing you $10k into a $65k pot?


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: matt674 on November 03, 2005, 12:21:33 PM
sorry harry if i'm jumping ahead of myself!! :(


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: Norwich Fan on November 03, 2005, 12:25:14 PM
on that board, someone will have either trips, a strong king, a better flush draw, or an up and down str8 draw, 6 handed, to have any chance of getting this through, u will have to bet at least the pot (thats assuming no one does have trips), and u basically have an 8 high, there will be far better chances to get your chips in in this tourney, and the pot at present is only 15, u have only put 2k in, let in go imo, if u do get a free card, then great reaccess it then.


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: Norwich Fan on November 03, 2005, 12:26:51 PM
and oh yeah, hello everyone, been reading this for a while , bout time i started posting i thought.

(check out my poker blog)
www.norwichfan.blogspot.com




Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: The Truth on November 03, 2005, 12:52:23 PM

So when I move all-in on the turn they don't have a clue what I have.


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: matt674 on November 03, 2005, 12:56:43 PM

So when I move all-in on the turn they don't have a clue what I have.

Are you laying your hand down if you get reraised on the flop?

Are you going all in on the turn regardless of how many callers and what card hits?


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: The Truth on November 03, 2005, 01:00:10 PM
I don't believe I will be reraised.


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: TightEnd on November 03, 2005, 01:03:43 PM
you wouldn't be re-raised by trips or UTG with a good king (finding out where he was)?


there's every chance you'd be reraised


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: The Truth on November 03, 2005, 01:06:41 PM
of course there is every chance but this is a hypothetical scenario with no info on the players. If I had my way the hand would have finished with my pre-flop raise of 50k.


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: The Baron on November 03, 2005, 02:09:34 PM
Wow - a nasty little problem. A fold or a raise pre flop was the way to go for me purely because this dilemma is awful.

I would check - fold.


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: Harry Demetriou on November 03, 2005, 02:10:40 PM
sorry harry if i'm jumping ahead of myself!! :(

Don't worry there's plenty of time before we get to the cut off and his up and down straight draw;-)

Anyone thinking of checking with a view to check raising from the small blind depending on what happens after you check and it getting back to you?

Do you think the 9 or K has hit anyone or that anyone will bet if you check?

If you put a big bet would you have a decent chance of winning the pot right now?

......and a silly point here but not totally irrelevant .....can you see how you could play this in many different ways depending on how many opponents you have and how much stronger your hand would be if you had Ax suited in hearts? (Does this tell you something about why they tell you that in games like Omaha (high or hi/lo) and in big bet poker you should only ever be drawing to the nut flush and in exceptional circumstances the non nut flush?).

So many questions and too few answers yet we love playing this game so much.

I'm going to read some more replies but wait a while before expressing my thinking and those of a few others I know on this bit of the analysis.


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: TightEnd on November 03, 2005, 02:14:54 PM
Wow - a nasty little problem. A fold or a raise pre flop was the way to go for me purely because this dilemma is awful.

I would check - fold.

me too


I still can't believe Harry dismissed the pre flop steal raise so easily  :D :D :D :D


and Harry....you check the SB here with a view to re-raising? Blimey!  :o

I think the 9 or the K will have hit someone, and I think someone bets

If at that point the field has been narrowed to bettor and me, out of position with a marginal draw.....I have to consider whether the check raise knocks him off his hand....only problem is the guy can bet with a strong K or a weak king or a draw or trips.....no way of knowing if you can knock him off, unless the bet size screams weakness


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: Harry Demetriou on November 03, 2005, 02:15:31 PM
of course there is every chance but this is a hypothetical scenario with no info on the players. If I had my way the hand would have finished with my pre-flop raise of 50k.

This is not hypothetical but a real scenario from a real tournament played in the USA recently.

If I had more info on the players I would give it but the cut off (you) just moved to the table and the small blind (your student) hasn't developed the art of paying attention to his opponents as he is relatively new to poker.

This is often the case unless you have had years of experience playing the same opponents and even if you have played previously aganst them good players have a habit of changing the way they play and people are affected by winning and losing big pots.


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: Harry Demetriou on November 03, 2005, 02:18:48 PM
Wow - a nasty little problem. A fold or a raise pre flop was the way to go for me purely because this dilemma is awful.

I would check - fold.

me too


I still can't believe Harry dismissed the pre flop steal raise so easily  :D :D :D :D


and Harry....you check the SB here with a view to re-raising? Blimey!  :o

I think the 9 or the K will have hit someone, and I think someone bets

If at that point the field has been narrowed to bettor and me, out of position with a marginal draw.....I have to consider whether the check raise knocks him off his hand....only problem is the guy can bet with a strong K or a weak king or a draw or trips.....no way of knowing if you can knock him off, unless the bet size screams weakness


These are just questions I am raising that would appear to me to be relevant and not necessarily what I would or would not do.

My views come before the next stage of the problem after you all decide what you would/should do.

We are going to be on the flop for a while and yes - you all guessed it - it's going to get even harder ;-)



Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: ifm on November 03, 2005, 03:17:53 PM
i thought a double belly buster meant there are two possible cards to give him a straight on the next card (eg if you hold J-9 on a K-10-7 flop then both the Q and the 8 give you the straight)

correct


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: ifm on November 03, 2005, 03:30:44 PM
right, i would be thinking that this is probably the best flop i could hope for apart from pairing, but i ain't greedy :D
The chances of someone else having a higher flush draw are minimal and i'm not worried about that at all yet.
That will hopefully reveal itself thru the hand.
I feel the best way to gain information from here on in would be to check and see the betting, if there is a raiser (i'd expect pos 1 or 2 to) i will pop in a min reraise again to gauge reaction.
I feel i can't raise here because i can't call a reraise, after all i have nothing at all.
A check-raise shows strength and if it were reraised it shows maniac/big made hand.


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: 12barblues on November 03, 2005, 03:33:38 PM
I would have called pre-flop, hoping for the perfect flop. This isn't it. It has hit me just enough to get me into big trouble, particularly as it is a near certainty that several others have a part of this board.

Right now my hand is filth with a few dreams attached. Check and await developments.


Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: Bongo on November 03, 2005, 03:37:52 PM
I'd check and see what happens.

I don't want to bet out with such a crap hand and so many people still in; one of them is very likely to have a hand they want to carry on playing and even if it's only a drawing hand it still figures to be better than mine.

However, I'm not giving up on the hand just yet, I get to see everyone elses actions before having to make that decision - who knows a favourably situation might emerge.



Title: Re: Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - Small Blind
Post by: Harry Demetriou on November 03, 2005, 06:51:25 PM
Time to move on to the next step which will be titled Complex Hand Analysis - THE FLOP - CUT OFF Position

 6h 9h Ks

This is not a great flop for you despite offering you some hope for winning the hand but your position in having to act first against five rivals should make you feel very uncomfortable.

You obviously cannot fold in the small blind with  4h 8h but if you decide to bet you have to try and work out how much you will bet and ascertain whether or not you are going to call a reraise and from whom and for how much. Against this many people I think you had better check and hope it goes all the way around.

There are no hard and fast rules but the problem with betting here is that one of your opponents can easily raise you out of this pot and generally speaking if you can't take a re raise then you shouldn't bet in the first place.

This was unraised pre flop and as such you have very little information about your opponents hands so you need more information and although you can get information by betting (and possibly winning if you bet enough and everyone else has nothing or a weak hand with which they can't call) this is likely to cost you too much if you should get re raised as you will be forced to fold.

Do either of the first two limpers pre flop have a big pair, has someone flopped a draw or top pair or a set and if they have are you prepared to bet enough to push them off their hand with a pot sized bet? These are just some of the questions you need to ask yourself and the texture of this flop is very likely to have helped at least one of your opponents with their pre flop limps.

If one of your opponents has top pair then you know his kicker is likely to be another high card and so in the absence of a pre flop raise it's going to be a tough lay down for them as they will not believe you hold an AK but if it's a suited King in hearts then you could be drawing practically dead.

However no limit poker is not a game for whimps and you can't go around being scared and fearing your opponents could be holding monsters or better hands than you so lets just tough it out and check and make a decision when and if the action gets back round to you.

One player when asked about being in the small blind considered the check raise but being out of position this is unlikely to get you a free card and without an overcad if you get called by the flop betttor(s) you know you are going to be a mile behind and once again you have to consider whether you really want to put a lot of chips into a pot like this which at present really amounts to a nothing (or 8) high albeit it with some anticipated flush outs. Should you choose to play this hand in this manner then I believe you are better off playing it like a winner and amking abig initial bet or reraise but even though you give yourself a chance to pick up the pot there and then is way too risky a play against so many rivals.

Anyway the player concerned with this actual hand checked as did the big blind and the first two pre flop limpers so the action got around to the cut off and his 7h 8s