blonde poker forum

Winning at sports betting has never been harder.

Everyone has far too much information about form, team news, internal problems at clubs etc etc.

However, I think the one way we can beat this is to back teams who are supposedly in "crisis" because the world and wife wants to oppose them and they drift to such an extent that they become value...

So, for 2009 (or until I get bored of it) I will make a post when I think such a situation exists and at the end of the year I would be very suprised if this system loses money..

Bet 1: Chelsea at Man Utd. I've put a request to back them: 2pts at 3.9 on Betfair.

I agree;

Stafford Rangers had financial difficulties a few weeks ago and lost their manager and 5 players.

they lost the next 3 games, but during this period signed a couple of players on loan, then for their next game they were 8/1 at Telford. Everyone was jamming on Telford at 4/9.

Stafford won.

Nice one, this should be good.

Yeah this has been very evident this season - I've highlighted Arsenal a few times on my blog at ridic prices due to everyone thinking they are terrible.

Agreed, often when you hear about teams having boardroom unrest/financial difficulty/injury crisis etc etc its actually just all stemmed from a local newspaper/club website news item where they have to fill an alloted amount of space in the back pages to that club, so they really over exaggerate the stories and then the national papers get hold of it and blow everything out of proportion.

Successfully matched.

And wth news Chelsea's team hotel was woken by a fire alarm at 7am.. I've put a request for another 2pts to back them at 4.1 just in case the price gets REALLY silly.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=39453.0 (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=39453.0)

:/

I'll tell you what, Spurs have drifted to 3.35-3.4 pre match at Wigan. That's pretty fair value too imo.

System not started that well then

Camel, what sports do you/will you cover with sports betting?  Football only?

It's a marathon, not a sprint.

Want a side bet this makes a profit by the end of 2009?

Pretty much everything apart from egg chasing and motor racing.

I do love the long priced bets, ill be following this weekly mate

Lets do it

i find out of all sports betting, rugby consistently delivers (even at short prices, mostly internationals)

Yes but its boring as fekk to watch tho, a bit like Middlesbrough v West Ham !

I know someone who is a big winner and he only bets on rugby league.

But it's hard to put the work in when you have zero interest in a sport.

Do you have a large amount of accounts, or will these be purely on Betfair as i assume they'll be nearly all singles?

I was going to suggest that Rugby League should be one where you can win consistently.  I don't do much sport betting, but when I have a little play every now and again I find that rugby league is the one that I do the best on.

just cos you cant understand it....

That is true i suppose

I don't like betting on the FA or Carling Cups. team news and motivation are quite difficult to predict.

However, there does seem to be stunning value about Portsmouth to beat Bristol City.

If the cup holders aren't going to be motivated, who are?

This would be a maximum 5pt bet if it wasn't a cup game.. but I have invested 3pts at 3.0.

Running total: -2pts.

Actually backing Pompey on the Asian Handicap at 0 is probably a shade better value.. 2.07 on betfair or 2.14 with paddy power. (Not that paddy effing power will lay me more than £2 on any bet. Tossers).

Yes totally agree mate, im on them

you could of course ship money to someone who they will take the bey off and get them to place it

Never thought of that ;)

Oh god, I've been suckered in again. I hate the cups.

West Brom have a full strength team out at Peterbrough.

3.0!

That is an amazing price too imo.

2pts staked.

I love your thinking, i also have them on with Pompey!

PS, Game delayed 15 mins

if you ever need another mug to put your bet on for you then let me know

Did the 4.1 on Chelsea not match no Camel?

OK.I'm on!

No, when news of Rio ferdinand being out leaked, there was a huge plunge on Chelsea.. they started 3.4-3.45.

Should have taken the free money pre match :) but at least the rest of the £££ didn't get matched.

West Brom 1-0 up dudes, easy easy easy!

Bokked!

 :)up ;applause;

Cheers Keith - nice tip.

I've won back the money I lost to you on the EPT bet. :)

well done tonight, top value spotting

It's all gone quiet over there.

A nice start.

I'll be a bit naughty and conviently forget the commision..

So running total = +8pts

Nice coup Keith.

Memo to self: Must check this thread every day :(

The anticipation for this wednesday evening is killing me here Camel

+1



bugger

Southend @ 12/1, mortgage job ?

TBH I can't see much value anywhere tonight, so just a wee sneaky £5 on a 4-fold:

1 Espanyol    @ 7/10
2 Crawley Town    @ 15/8
3 Valencia    @ 4/6
4 Sporting    @ 4/6

no takers for Hull at 3/1?

Hull are off-form, but Newcastle are fragile/vulnerable

strikes me as a contrarian bet, Hull that is

postponed

Back on

lol come on Camel, we're all waiting :D

Man U -1.5 AH at 1.97?  Surely they won't piss about at home to Wigan.

I would assume that no post means no perceived valloooooooooo about tonight.

comedy, these bets don't turn up every single day - settle down folks.

 comedy bet for me

 southend v chelsea

 Draw/draw  H/T  F/T   10/1 on betfair.

 

Until Chelsea at the weekend they've been winning a lot of games 1-0. Saying that i wouldn't lay it.

Nice start for the mancs

When I woke up this morning and looked on Betfair, the only thing that stood out was United were quite short at 1.26. If they had gone to 1.22 I was going to lay them. By kick off time they were 1.33.. I very nearly backed them!

Bleh.

LOL Southend 1-0 up

Love it!

 come on chelski...ffs !!  :D

phew...just in time!

ffs, how I hate Man U.  1-0 up after 1 minute, and they still are 1-0 up at the end

[ ] I bet on 1-0

or keiths gone out for a nice steak and chips

One bet already stands out for Saturday.

2pts on Newcastle at 4.1 to beat Blackburn.

(And we will go in again if this amazing price gets even more amazing!)

Can i ask why you think this? cos i had Blackburn down as a banker on my coupon.

Because the whole world is obviously thinking Blackburn is a "banker" and Newcastle have drifted to an incredible price.

The whole point of this exercise is to identify prices which drift becuase of a snowball effect of people thinking a team is in crisis, or completely out of form etc etc. and therefore they all lump on their opposition and we get value.

Newcastle should have walloped Hull on Weds. They had a hatful of chances. If they had won 3-0 they would be 9/4 or so on Saturday.

Blackburn are second bottom for a reason. They are shite.

Win or lose, Newcastle are incredible value.

iIunderstand the point of this exercise, thats why im following you, however even if Newcastle did beat Hull 3-0 or so, id still have Blackburn for the win in this one, Blackburn are second bottom, due to a very poor start, however i feel this is changing, and still fancy a home win here.

I am torn between your currently profitable exercise, and what my head is telling me!

what to do, what to do?

Back the draw.

Honestly, go with your own feeling and back Blackburn.

I have listened to advice and opposed what I fancied before and it's both won and lost.

When what I backed lost and my original fancy won I felt so sick it wasn't made up for by the tipped selection winning next time.

I think if you follow my selections in this thread you will win money in the long term. But each individual selction is more likely to lose than win (obv).

Thats what i was thinking, if i back Blackburn and they lose ill only have myself to blame

....If i back Newcastle and they lose, id need to hunt you down like the dog you are!  ;nemesis;

In other words, go with your own choices, while in the meantime open up a seperate account purely to follow Camel's with smallish bets...  :)

might put a £100 in BF to follow this for a laugh, what do you mean when you say bet x pts? Is it a % of the cash u have to bet with or something?

You set how much 1pt is to you, depending on how big you bet. It might be £1, it might be £100. But it remains the same throughout.

Have say 50 'points' in your roll to start to be cautious, so if you £100, and Camel says 2 points, its £4 etc

50's probs a bit too safe to be fair

I'd think having 50 points in your bankroll is probably about right. Max bet will prob be 5 points.

One thing that interesting from this thread is that people who obviously bet alot, notably Scottish Dave clearly don't understand the concept of betting for value, it is the only way to bet profitably. I would agree that Blackburn are the more likely winners of their game vs Newcastle but Newcastle are obviously a much more attractive betting proposition. Blackburn are probably close to the worst value on the whole coupon.

what if yo think blackburn have a 90+% chance of winning this game? are they still bad value?

no because you are getting better the 1-10 for them to win

if  you thought blackburn was 90% to win and you was betting 1.15 then you would bet on them for value

If you think their chance is >90% then they obviously represent value to you. You can't actually think their chance is anything like that good though. As I say I think a Blackburn win is the most likely of the three results, clearly not a bet though.

or a better defination of value is roulette wheel i offer you even money on black and 2-1 on red you would bet on red as you are getting better value even though the odds on the result are the same

What do you think about the 6.6 available about Everton on Monday Keith ?

I know they have a poor record in recent derbies but they are playing well presently and that looks huge to me.

The outsider in the majority of premiership games will represent value. The premiership probably has more money wagered on it unintelligently than any other market. The vast majority of losing punters will back what they perceive to be most likely winner of any match. Therefore in almost every instance the favourite is artificially low correspondingly the outsider is almost always an inflated price.

I can see where you're coming from, I certainly couldn't bet Liverpool at 1.67. However, in a game where the goal expectancy will be about 2.3 the draw is a massive runner. I think I would probably rather lay Liverpool than back Everton.

If I was betting blind I would agree with you. There is more likely to be value about the outsider than the favourite, but there are also lots of super shrewd punters on Betfair that will often support a price which would normally collapse.

Can you explain a bit more Camel what you mean 'normally collapse'?

Ok.

Let's say Team A has won 6 in a row. They are playing away at Team B who have lost 4 in a row and their star striker has been sold since the coupons were printed. The opening price for team A was 2.1. Since the striker was sold, the press are full of stories that Team B are in crisis and there is talk that the manager will be sacked soon.

The price on BF quickly moves from 2.1 to 1.9. Everyone wants to back them, but now at the new price several "sharp" betfair punters want to oppose them so they keep the price higher than it "should" be if market forces worked like normally would on bf.

On matches like this you often see twice as much or more traded than in a normal match in the division. "Mug" money wants to pile in on Team A, but sharp players are prepared to stake much more than usual on this match as they seeing laying Team A is great value.

I've put in a point at 4.4 and another 2pts at 4.6.

I'll let you know if they get matched.

of course ill bet RED

And yes i think Blackburn are close to 90% to win, i honestly cant see past them in this match...

.....line up the Dave haters, when Newcastle score their 3rd!

Really, the more I think about this match, the more I like Newcastle.

Blackburn have conceeded 35 goals in 20 matches for the second worst defensive record in the league.

Newcastle played their best football of the season against Portsmouth and Spurs recently. Yes, they got hammered by Liverpool and lost at home to Hull, but the scousers would have beaten anyone by 4 that day, they were awesome and as stated before Hull were extremely lucky to get a win at St James Park.

Blackburn have improved slightly since Big Sam took over. They are shocking at the back and apart from Tugay are devoid of creation in the middle of the park. Santa Cruz wants out and that must be a disruption. They have won one of their last 10 and that was at home to travel shy Stoke.

7/2 is massive.

Well Camel sir, you've certainly convinced me, I'm having a bit of it

oh FFS, im questioning myself again!

FML

Newcastle have gone out to 4/1 on Skybet!!!

This the only bet today then Keith?  Has it matched?

Personally, i think Wolves @ 7/5 is huge, and for scottish betting punters, Hearts @ 7/4 is also way over priced!

Yes, all matched. I really don't like Michael Owen, I think he's a greedy, selfish little tosser. But I hope he gets a hattrick today :) This sort of bet is exactly what I was banging on about when I started this thread. Maybe I was wrong about Newcastle being huge value at 4.0. But at nearly 5.0 this is absolutely massive. I've had ALOT of money on this selection and it will probably lose. But i know that if I only have bets like this for the rest of my life, I will be content.

Almost certainly more bets to come (probably 15-20 minutes before kick off)...

Best prices I can find on coupons are

Blackburn 6/5
Newcastle 14/5

So if you can get anything over 4/1 you are getting amazing valloooooooo !


EDIT .. I should add that it's a watching brief for me today. No bets.

Sky bet are currently offering 7/2.... betfair are currently offering 18/5, this is the best i can see.

Ive decided to avoid this game altogether TBH, and go for Aston Villa instead of Blackburn (same price)

I thought the swimming against the tide was to be based on more off field stuff? For me Newcastle are doomed today. 11 fit first teamers who have played four times since blackburns first 11 last played. Morale and confidence is shot and the results against Portsmouth and spurs (spurs result merely based on them being worse than us than a good performance) was well beaten out by Liverpool and Given's lawyer. Blackburn with big Sam. We do not have it in us to overcome all of that.

I don't think anybody is disputing that Newcastle are unlikely to win. They are obviously a very good bet at nearly 4-1 though.

In tradition with the type of bets being offered in this thread I fancy laying Real Madrid this weekend. Osasuna are actually playing decent football the moment despite being bottom and "in crisis".

Their last 5 results are:

 Sun, Dec 7 Valladolid D 3-3
 Sun, Dec 14 at Recreativo Huelva L 0-1
 Sun, Dec 21 Getafe W 5-2
 Sun, Jan 4 at Sevilla D 1-1
 Sun, Jan 11 Barcelona L 2-3

Now admittedly they're not great away from home but they're getting a lot of draws this season, 7 so far, and should have won against Barca last week. Add to this the fact that Real Madrid ar terrible at the back (Pepe aside) and have conceeded the same number of goals as Osasuna all season and 11 of Osasuna's 19 goals have come in the last 5 games and I quite fancy a draw. Real also have no Ruud Van Nistlerooy.

as i said to teacake today, i totally disagree with this, i think 4/1 is underpricing newcastle TBH

id have them around 6/1 or 7/1 today!

No, it's swimming against the tide of betting moves. The shrewdies are on Blackburn are on at 5/4 or 6/5. Noone with a 3 figure IQ could think they are value at 5/6. It's usually inspired by the fact that the drifting team are in crisis or injury riddled or out of form etc etc Such was the case with West Brom and Pompey in midweek.

I am definitely not saying Newcastle will certainly win. I'm saying they have considerably more chance than 20%.

I've had three other bets.

2pts on Birmingham at 2.42
1pt on Barnsley at 4.2
1pt on Bolton at 11.5

There were a couple of near things.. Aston Villa at 2.42 and Middlesbrough at 3.5, but I'm sticking with those 3 to go along with the Toon.

Add 2pts on Aston Villa @ 2.52.

Can't miss this price.

im giving this a go for some fun! put in £75 to betfair and using 1pt as £2.50. lets hope its a good 1st day :)

LOL me too, already done £20 on the comedy donkey selections on the other thread, whatever...........

According to Paul Merson.. "Andy Carroll 8 yards out totally free header, if he hits the target he scores, but puts it wide".

FML.

sunderland 1-0 sighh

Ref has screwed ya.

Pen Blackburn

Spurs bottom of the league.

[ ] this is going well.

Going to be  ;nipnip; on Monday.

must be a record day for sending offs today ... bloody loads right through the leagues.

Going to change the staking system. 1 point will equal 100 points so I can include commision without resorting to a whole raft of decimal places.

Almost certainly will be at least one NFL bet tomorrow and then as I'm off to Deauville, no bets for a week!

Late villa goal numbed the pain a touch ?

Saved me paying a trip to Darlington's highest building.

Unlucky today Keith, definitely identified some decent value, by the talk in the pub there's been some bizarre refereeing in the premiership today (blackburn penalty notably). Just for reference for the rest of the year, Birmingham are a poor/overrated side or at least they've been poor on the three occassions I've seen them.
Hopefully Scottish Dave went with his instinct and had a last minute plunge on Blackburn.

i stuck them on a small treble with Wolves and Dag n Reds......Dag drew 1-1! lol

Did anyone take me up on my two value bets i picked out today?

Hearts and Wolves?.... Hearts won 2-0, and Wolves currently 1-0 up?

Well, the bet was going to be over the points in the Baltimore/Pittsburgh game.

However the line has moved from 33 to 35 and it's not exactly swimming aginst the tide playing the over with a 2 point movement!

Over 35 is still a good bet imo, but I won't advise it as a value bet.

I'm a simple person, this point thingy.... would I be far wrong if I take it as a point being 1% of a bankroll?

I had a lovely swim against the tide today after backing Aberdeen earlier in the week at 5/1. Celtic were quite rightly favourites but the Dons were too big not to bet them.

They may be value again next weekend too but no way I'll be backing them on Saturday.

wee shall see

sigh, flushy told me under 33.5 was a knock in bet, took all the 2.06 early on betfair, drifted to 2.35 prematch and i got shafted in the last 2 mins

It went off at 2.14 btw Rick, still certain it was a good bet, just a bit unlucky the defences didn't perform as well as usual against the deep ball.

Not so sure it was a good bet Mr Flush.

Limas Sweed dropped a certain td pass, Pitt buggered up fg try at the end of the first half and Joe Flacco had a terrible day.

I think it was a solid over bet even though I got a bit lucky at the end :)

BTW... how did Mr and Mrs Sweed come up with Limas as a good name for their offspring?

I am never again betting against Real Madrid whilst Robben is in this form. Right now he is the best winger anywhere.

The game was far more open than anyone had expected, obv looking at the amount of room each team got the score should have been higher (although the cold is a factor in why these passes get dropped) i was expecting far less 10yard+ pass attempts.

The good news is that they expect Willis McGahee to make a full recovery, have to say i felt pretty sick watching the replays of that hit!

Bump
WestBrom vs Man U
Man U 12 first teamers out.
Draw 15-4
WestBrom 9-1
Like the draw here little bet.

Whats the West Brom N/L price?

Converting the bets so far:

200pts Chelsea @ 3.9     -200
200pts Pompey @ 3      +380
200pts WBA @ 3          +380
200pts Newcastle @ 4.1 -200
100pts Newcastle @ 4.4 -100
200pts Newcastle @ 4.6 -200
200pts Brum @ 2.42      -200
100pts Barnsley @ 4.1    -100
100pts Bolton @ 11.5     -100
200pts Villa @ 2.52        +289


Running Total so far: -51pts.

Looks like 4 possible bets for tonight, depending on which way the market goes...

 ;popcorn;

Here are the bets:

500pts Birmingham @ 1.9
300pts Sheff Utd @ 1.77
200pts Aston Villa @ 2.5
LAY 200pts Swansea @ 2

gogogogogogogo

Fancy QPR today at 3.05 too, but refrained from putting any money on them...

Falkirk @ 15.5 1pt
Wolves @ 3.95 2pts
Sunderland @ 2.3 3.5pts
Burnley @ 3.0 3.5pts

LOL @ everyone using the points now ... just fkin say how much you are lumping on for ffs.

 :)up done

 Following the Camel......... I'm on a Birmingham/Sheff Double.

I like the idea of points, doesnt feel as bad wen I loose.  :)  Inevitably I am going to be 10 points down at the end of the night. 

It doesn't hurt so much when I do my cobblers to see it written down as points instead of ££££ :)

EG.  Swansea 2 up!

Birmingham +427
Sheff Utd -300
Villa +285
Swansea -200

+212 on the evening, Running total +161.

Sigh, why didn't I put the Superhoops in?

- 1.95  - must do better

Followed your bets closely but not exactly. Did same points on all and in a hurry backed blades for Saturday instead. Slight profit on small stakes, ty.

Onwards and (hopefully) upwards:

50pts Middlesbrough @ 22
LAY 300pts Man City @ 1.67

Maybe more to come..

Add

LAY 300pts Liverpool @ 1.74

[ ]  GL...

Coward that I am back boro and closed off at half time for a 2pt profit.

shrewdie

Middlesbrough LOSE -50
Man City LOSE -201
Liverpool WIN +285

Night +34

Running Total +195

Do you have any season long bets running at the moment Camel?  Any handicap markets from the start of the season etc?

I've had bloody loads!

Examples:

The Good: £1000 ew on Reading for the Championship @ 10/1

The Bad: Bought Newcastle points @ 45

The Ugly: £2000 on Spurs without the Big Four @ 5/2

I'll be more than happy to break even on my ante post bets, but Villa making the top 3 would get me out of it big time.

Apologies btw, flippant remark by me. GL with this.
Interesting thread.

Sometimes I just want to rip up a staking plan and just stick the whole lot on a selection.. today is such a day..

How the hell are Aston Villa 5/6 to beat Wigan?

500pts Villa @ 1.87

Other bets:

200pts Stoke @ 4.1
100pts Blackpool @ 5.7
LAY 200pts Cardiff @1.71

I like West Brom at Hull this afternoon but it sticks in the throat a bit taking 3.6 when 11/4 with no commision was available earlier. If Arsenal drift to 1.6 I will definitely back them too, but the slide seems to have halted and they are moving the wrong way in the market now. The only other possibilities were opposing Wolves and Ipswich, but I didn't bother in the end.

gl to everyone betting today.

Dundee Utd are over priced at 15/2 away to Rangers, the draw is also too big at 4/1. I would price them nearer 5/1 & 3/1 respectively.

Utd have played Celtic & Rangers 5 times this season, all have ended in draws. They are well organised & always raise their game against Celtic & Rangers.

On the downside they have just lost one of their better players in Willo Flood and have just come off of a penalty shootout defeat to Celtic which will have taken a lot out of them.

Thank God for self discipline! (Although I just watched Villa totally batter Wigan, how they didn't score I'll never know)

Results:

Villa LOSE -500
Stoke WIN +589
Blackpool WIN +447
Cardiff LOSE -142

Day +394

Running Total +589

They've suckered me in again:

200pts Newcastle @ 2.84

The total would be 1000+ with Newcy bets!  :)

Oh balls, how disheartening, i've wasted my 4000th post on fkin Geordie's!   ;nanana;

ROFL dave your clueless mate.

so you would have to price the game as about   1/4 blackburn    3/1 draw   newcastle 7/1

What a surprise.

Newcastle LOSE -200

Running Total: +389.

Three fancies tonight, but nothing to go mad about:

200pts West Brom @ 3.6
LAY 200pts Wolves @ 1.6
100pts Southampton @ 3.45

wow had the burnley game   6/4     11/5    13/8             off to get involved

Wolves are shortening like there's no tomorrow.

I've put in another lay of 200pts @ 1.57, if it gets matched, it's another bet.

Rochdale were 6/5 to win at Chester earlier this morning when I looked,  4/5 now, I wonder how much they have to take before they consider altering the price, would be interesting to find out...

If you're talking about traditional bookies.. the figure is £0.

They have software which alerts them to Betfair movements and if they are offering arbs they change their price immediately.

ROFL, thanks for your comments mate, and yes you are correct, i would price them that price....

considering they were pumped 3-0, im just wonder how your words are Tasting right now.

Come on Burnley .... soz Keith. :)

FML....again, and again, and again!

West Brom/Burnley? who cares. Backed West Brom early, cashed in before kick off to secure small profit.

1) i posted after the match while i was aware of the score

2)you, like 99% of the other mug punters in the uk don't bet for value. You bet for a punt. Big diference here. I'll explain.

Betting for value is a lot like being a proffessional poker player, insomuch as its a long term +EV kinda thing. If i price a match up at 6/5  12/5  9/4 and the home team is quoted 6/4 i will back them. Regardless of the score, in my opinion i got the value. If The bookies priced Man utd up evs to beat stoke at home we would all lump on for value. Now it is still a good value bet even if they lose. I'd imagine you would be in the camp of, "it was a bad bet. Hindsight is 20/20 mate.

People who bet for value are not results orientated. The result doesnt matter as long as your betting with value, as if you are you will be a long term winner. Maybe you should try it, then you could afford your own $10 mtt's on a cold snowy monday.

lol you really are clueless!

weeeeeeeeeeeeee 3-1

how many teams do you actually support!

you do realise that another cup run is bad for your Burnley League winning bet you have running, forget the cups, concentrate on the league

do you not think i had given up on the league bet a long time ago ??

even play offs are looking bleak ... but 2 good cup runs and an away 5th round at the emirates will boost the coffers nicely ... and I believe Burnley might just do it next season if they keep hold of Coyle as manager

Never!, Celtic will win the CL next season....never give up

lol comedy scottish dave delivering on this thread again, Trigg is 100% right, you genuinely don't understand the concept of value and therefore are just a classic mug punter, a bookies dream.

lol, oh how i wish i was a bookie taking Triggs bets like Newcastle to beat Blackburn!

Id be a millionaire, ahem, MultiMillionaire!

keep trying tho, you might get one of those bets up one day lol

My girlfriend's definition of a value bet: "Something we have to bet on, but will inevitably lose".

Topsy turvy one! But N1...

fml.

Been stuck in traffic all bloody day. Villa drifted to 1.65 and Everton to 4.3.. if both win I might just have to top myself.

lol

Everton didn't win - 90 min result was a draw.

Some huge value around today imo:

500pts Liverpool @ 1.92
LAY 500pts Wigan @ 2.06
LAY 300pts West Brom @ 2.06
200pts Birmingham @ 2.24

glglgl

2.1 Liverpool now.

It's mortgage time imo.

Team news put some them off i imagine

Team news is the most over rated factor in predicting football results.

Yes, Torres and Gerrard missing means Liverpool are slightly less likely to win, but nowhere near as much as 1.66 to 2.12 suggests.

Didnt realise they'd jumped that much, thought you meant from 1.92...

I backed them at 1.92 earlier.. when news of Torres starting on the bench came out they jumped to 2.12. although the price has stabilised at 2.02 now.

Updating is easy after a day like that!

Running total +389

West Brom LOSE -200
Wolves WIN +190 (the second bet on them didn't get matched unfortunately)
Southampton LOSE -100
Liverpool WIN +437
Wigan WIN +475
West Brom WIN +285
Brum LOSE -200

Running Total +1276 (Or +12.76 if you think it's poncy)

I couldn't put off anyone backing Tottenham at 3.55 today, but I am waiting for a little better.. I have put up 100pts @ 3.7, I'll let you know if it gets matched.

However, one bet for sure:

200pts Tottenham/Spurs UNDER 2.5 goals @ 1.98

Should that read Tottenham/Arsenal or is Spurs to score 2 or less?

It's the game total to be 2 or less goals..

@rse cant score goals, Spurs cant score at home ...


6-5 to Spurs then :)

Actually just looking around.. if anyone has a BET365 account, you are better off backing under 2.5 on their Asian Handicap Goal Line at 1.975.

The Spurs bet has been matched now..

100pts Tottenham @ 3.7

I would really love it if that bet comes in ... REALLY LOVE IT !!


GL GL GL GL GL

3.7 is massive compared to sporting bets 9/5, huge difference, even by Betfair standards...  What would the commission be on that Camel?  (I know it 'depends' but roughly)

The more you bet, the less commission you pay. I pay 3.2% at the moment. The starting point is 5% and that's what I use for calculating the running total.

Thread tidied up .... Guys, its Sunday, you are bored and I am grumpy.

Keep the personal insults off the forum.

Thanks

PS. Its not up for debate, and the next one that decides to go for it will get a 7 day ban.

keith, are you gonna be using this thread for football only? 12.5pt start is very impressive due to the number of selections you make each week. How many points would you expect to make per year sticking to this system of swimming against the tide?

Damn, what did I miss? Never had a post like this on one of my threads before!!!!

Do you look as far down as the conference Camel?

Burton at home to Rushden tonight @ 1.6ish, lost 4-0 at Stevenage last week in the FA trophy, worth laying?

I would say it will be mostly football, due to the fact market moves are less likely to be a precursor to what actually happens in a football match than any other sport. Swimming against the tide in sellers at Southwell would probably be very expensive for example!

However, I would think it's very likely I make selections at Cheltenham, Royal Ascot, York etc as well as NFL, MLB and anything else where the betting market is strong.

These bets are far from all the bets I have, it is just an area I have been thinking about for quite a while which hopefully will be profitable long term.

I don't really like to set targets, because it sometimes makes you have bets you shouldn't if you a long way from your target or stops you having bets if you have reached or are near to a target.

I would hope I could make 5-7% or more profit on turnover on these bets, Which would be alot better than if I leave my cash at the bank for the year.

Unfortunately not.

I only follow the top two divisions at the moment as the market is so strong there.

However, I probably should go lower as I'm missing alot of bets.

Maybe next season.

Bandit thought he'd identified a bit of value on the rugby, Boldie didn't agree. It wasn't really that exciting, the worst insult I saw was 5*tool, pretty tame really but a it was only going to get worse so a decent idea to knock it on the head.

Do you ever bet on the six nations Keith?

Rugby is the only sport I really hate (apart from Motor Racing of course, which everyone hates don't they?).

I was forced to play prop for my school team 'cos I was a fat bastard even back then and detested being beaten up and pissed upon by pouring rain every Saturday lunchtime when I would rather have been at home picking out my selections for the ITV 7.

Since then I have virtually never watched a rugby match. I didn't even bother watching England winning the world cup.. it's just a boring sport with stupid rules and played by tossers.

Having said that, I'm sure there are plenty of good opportunites in the six nations.

I'll keep the rugby bets on their own thread then :-)

I appreciate you doing this thread Keith. I've always made decent money out of NFL, Cricket and Rugby, know I make profit on the football too :-) (still do my brains on the horses obv)

Hi Keith - this is a great thread.

Just one comment - do you think rugby players are bigger tossers than footballers?

Other way round IMO. At least rugby players have respect for the referees and are less likely to behave like fkwits, with the odd exception obviously.

I agree 100% woodsey.

With obvious exceptions like Gavin Peacock and Matt Dawson I think they both tend to be tossers but in different ways..

Footballers are more likely to come from poorer backgrounds and bad schools (has a public schoolboy ever played pro football?) and hence when they suddenly become fabulously wealthy and the centre of attention it is little wonder their heads are turned and they become badly behaved.

Rugby players tend to come from upper middle class backgrounds and wealth and fame should be less of a problem to them. So many of them seem to be obnoxious, self satisfied bullies.

imo.

VWD on your weekend bets.

Leeds v Millwall @ 5.0 anyone??

No thanks ;)

LOL, lumped on Leeds. Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

Frank Lampard ftw!

Me too, well not a huge lump, just £50 on them @ 1.97ish, plus £10 on Beckford first Goal!! £100 profit for the game will do me!

PS my post above wasn't a suggestion that i was taking Millwall, it was just a question if you's were since you's all love the under-dog value bets.

lol if millwall won i would imagine there would be a "weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee" had £50 at 5/1 shiiiiiib post

Harsh IMO. 

Spain v England

England currently 4.8 on B/F

surely to big

draw ftw imo

Id post my Receipt, but sadly, you my friend just ain't worth it.

game over dave!  http://www.grapheine.com/bombaytv/index.php?module=see&lang=uk&code=ecc980a76cf5ce879b6810be2fbfd2da

LOL Action Man you may be the shrewdest!

That is hilarious

lol the old BombayTV, we used to make loads of them back in the day........am I getting to you mate?

You should try to control your Jealousy Trigg, one day you'll back a winner....just keep plugging away.

lolcom

Week after week someone wants to oppose Birmingham. I really don't think they are as good as say, Wolves or Reading or Swansea.. but nearly Evens at home to Forest is just too big to miss.

500pts Birmingham @ 1.95

Other bets:

LAY 400pts West Ham @ 1.7
300pts Preston @ 2
200pts Plymouth @ 3.75

Other possible bets were Wolves and Hull, but I'll stick with those 4 for now.

glglglgl

Am i missing something here? why are Plymouth 3.75 when they game is very very even (Charlton at home = 4, 4, 7 : Plymouth away 4, 5, 7)

Do they have players out, that massive Value IMO

Charlton have looked alot better in their last few games.. probably coinciding with the loan signing of Tom Soares who is very good at this level.

However, 2.2 is far too short imo

to big to leave it, so ive lumped £10 on Playmouth @ 3.8

also racon (one of the best players in the division imo) now returned from a season long injury and captain hudson back from injury today as well

Saw him once last season playing for Brighton on loan, albeit poor that day...

lol, he scores!

yeah, fml, talk him up but don't back him

from a corner by soares, it's almost like me and the camel are psychic

FYP

fml.

Nearly had the first horse racing bet of the thread.. Consigliere 5/2 -> 7/1.

Amazing price, wins on the nod.


FMLFMLFMLFMLFML.

2-0 Charlton, fekk it.

Ship.

That is all.

Update:

Running Total +1276

Spurs/Arsenal Goals WIN +186
Spurs LOSE -100
Birmingham WIN +451
West Ham WIN +380
Preston WIN +285
Plymouth LOSE -200

Running Total +2278 (22.78)

Maybe it's desperation to have a bet on a quiet Sunday..

But the unders look terribly skinny in the Everton/Villa cup tie.

100pts Everton/Villa OVER 2.5 goals @ 2.6

Keith, would you think of running a staking enterprise for this kind of betting,sort of a la boldie?

Nice start !!!

Sandy

off to the pay out window at half time

MBN.

I don't think so.

I would be hopeless at organising something like that. Unless Flushy starts lumping on these selections I doubt very much anyone on here would have enough on to affect the price and I'm having pretty big bets on these selections anyway, so I'm happy to share what I'm backing with anyone who is interested.

Just as long as I don't get flamed if it all goes pear shaped.

Going for the daily double.. the money is pouring on the under in the Derby/Utd match. So I cannot resist the over at 2.16.

100pts Derby/Man Utd OVER 2.5 goals @ 2.16

I thought this game and the Milan derby were certainties for the unders and the Athletic Madrid game for the overs. 

ship ship ship.

Running Total +2278

Everton/Villa Goals WIN +152
Derby/Utd Goals WIN +110

Running Total +2540 (25.4)

To be fair, as soon as bandit posted above you should have started queueing at the pay out window.

Heh.

I was also urgently looking at what price the over was in the Milan derby...

WD Camel, i just lumped on Everton so am also happy.

You're doing very well atm, keep it up!

Inter 2-0 up at HT game is live on BBC3 by the way... second half just kicked off

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/default.stm

LOL GG Bandit, ship the overs :)


Great game to watch, loving the camera shots etc as well.

Sigh.

Best game of footy I have seen in a long while.

The overs in tonights game is drifting to a near backable price..

200pts Arsenal/Cardiff OVER 2.5 goals @ 2.12

It hasn't been matched yet, if it isn't matched, no bet.

Matched.

gogogogogogogogo

3-0 to Cardiff will do nicely :)

Just on at 2.46, gl Camel and the rest of us :)

Scoop the Gooners goal 1 minute after!

If the overs don't cop I might just have to hunt down Mr Bendtner and stick his pink boots where the sun doesn't shine.

I think they're score again.

3-1

blow that final whistle eh :)

Nice one Keith :)

Kev, Keith check your pms

Dunno if anyone is gonna read this in time.. but DADA CUP 4/1 -> 12/1 in the 3.20 at Taunton looks a great price.

Seemed to be going ok, jumped one slowly and immediately pulled up. Job done imo.

Note to self: stick to big meetings, these gaff tracks stink.

FFS!  By all means PM Camel for betting tips, but not Kev surely!!!!!!!!!!!

I can't remember having a bet in EVERY game on a fairly full card before, but today is just insane.

Prolly do my cobblers but wtf:

300pts Watford @ 3.4
LAY 300pts Burnley @ 1.78
300pts Bristol City @ 3.6
200pts Plymouth @ 3.25
200pts Sheff Wednesday @ 2.1

Just for the hell of it, and just in case they all cop I've had £20 trebles, 4 folds and acca (backing Coventry instead of laying Burnley obv). They are all best priced with bet365 although a fair bit shorter than on betfair.

I've worked out how much it pays and it comes to an amazing 6 zillion quid!

Careful Mr Hawkins, you have a few £ signs in the above post.

Apolgies. I won't let it happen again.

The more I think about it, the more I absolutely love both Bristol City and Watford, I would have made them both maximum bets both the price has gone about both unfortunately.. they are still value at the prices they are now 3.3 (City) and 3.2 (Watford). just not quite as good as before.

No time for points:

£90 BACK SHEFF WED @ 11/10
£20 DBL SHEFF WED @ 11/10 & PLYMOUTH @ 11/5
£100 LAY BURNLEY @ 1.78
£60 BACK WATFORD @ 3.4
£60 BACK BRADFORD @ 2.48

1-0 Watford FML

FYP

Small profit tonight, could have been better (Bristol had enough chances to win 10 games), should have been worse (Burnley battered Coventry by all accounts). And it was a great night for the R's as none of the teams above us won!

Running Total +2540

Arse/Cardiff Goals WIN +218
Watford WIN +684
Burnley WIN +285
Bristol City LOSE -300
Plymouth LOSE -200
Sheff W LOSE -200

Running Total +3027 (30.27)

anything tonight?

Can someone please explain how Ipswich are considerably shorter to beat Forest than Birmingham were on Saturday?

LAY Ipswich 400pts @ 1.81

Also:

200pts Man Utd/Fulham UNDER 2.5 goals @ 2.12

gl all

I've just had a potentially very expensive phonecall.. Apparently Hamburg are good things at Nijmegan tonight. 2.06 on Betfair, maybe some 11/10 around if you're lucky.

Derby are getting ridiculously short.

LAY 100pts Derby @ 1.79

Good shout with Hamburg

UL with the others

Bad day at Black Rock yesterday.

But this evening there's a bet which illustrates the very reason for starting this thread.

If you only have bets like this for your entire life, you'll do less work than Kev:

LAY Shakthar 500pts @ 1.84.

Win or lose this is just stunning value.

Obviously I hope you cop the lot here .... looking at the side we have out though, I wish you luck.

Tottenham: Gomes, Gunter, Huddlestone, Dawson, Chimbonda, Jenas, Zokora, Parrett, Bentley, Giovani, Campbell.

But that's the whole point.. The whole world knows that Spurs have a slightly weakened team out.. but the price movement is a massive over reaction.

Shakthars true price should be about Evens imo. The shrewdies who took 6/5 and 11/10 have got good bets, but only the steam tugs are still betting them at nearly 4/5.

Betfair account stands at £53. I reckon 500pts is £50. Job done.

Ross Parrett ex QPR youth team player and England U16 captain.

Going to be a superstar by all accounts.

For the first time (and quite probably the last) in my life:

COME ON YOU SPURS!

Quoting that fucker for future use/blackmail/leverage.

I thought there was evens available this morning?..

you'd prefer to lay them at evens?

[ ] good sign for the syndicate  ::)

11/10 with Ladbrokes, 6/5 with some Irish bookies who won't lay the cleaner a bet let alone a punter.

ah.

hope you washed your keyboard! 
Come on the draw :D

i hope spurs are lulling donetsk into a false sense of security

Pascal Chimbonda is crap.

That is all.

i think im gonna do a scottish dave here and oppose the camel.

spurs to lose 2-0+

any1 else flicking between the two games?

how man city doing?

u gotta wait for the game to finish before u can do that

nooooooooooo

A while ago I opened up a Betfair account to see if I could spin up just £20, a few small bets, a bit of profit taking here and there. Eventually got it up to £53, tonight I start from below scratch or double it up.

flick to bbc 3.......

man city are prob one of the worst away sides on the planet

they must be due a performance though, one day.

betting in running at 7/4, any1 on it?

LOL

they have been doing alright away from home in Europe...7-4 is a decent bet....or would be if Mark Hughes wasn't their manager.

pfffffttttt wp keeper

gomes danish half brother imo

fml

rangers ex keeper jesper christiansen

scottish dave always told me to think b4 i speak

(K/C)openhagen are truly awful.

Aberdeen took them apart in the UEFA cup last season by just kicking a long ball in the air towards their defence. They all panicked and we scored.

Obv their keeper is pretty special too.

if i were on your bet id lay it off and have a small bet on correct score 0-0

id use up that green 17 on spurs

Chickens

lol damn right, ill even buk! buk! for u

FMP

Cheers Mr Camel Sir, without your post I wouldn't have been on it on the first place.

[  ] good spot for a brag post robert ;booder;

whoops, my bad :(

lol, ill have you know ive only opposed once, possibly twice, but i usually follow this thread Daily mate. was busy all day so only have Darts bets on tonight, i would defo have lay along with Camel @ that price tho, easily.

yea that was my point....................... :dontask:

maybe im the one who should think before i speak lol

Darts have F'edML Again it seems!

unless Klassen can pull this one out the bag, ive even upped my Stake on it to £7 @ 8.2, trying to claw a half decent profit out this night!

Leeds to lose to Cheltenham 9.4 on Betfair. Worth it at those odds imo

mr camel, do you think there is any reason to swim against the tide in the premiership outright betting?

lay manu @ 1.17

back chelski @ 26-1

both on betfair

Good Call.

This week's card  does look the hardest for quite a while, a few small bets, but nothing to get over excited about imo:

LAY 300pts Arsenal @ 1.38
200pts Stoke @ 2.88
200pts Sheff Weds @ 2.74
200pts Preston @ 3.15
100pts Plymouth @ 3.5
100pts Doncaster @ 5.1

Tough though.

gl

CMON THE PRESTON!

Got some bad news for you Camel, I have started following these bets.

[ ] I am well known for my great sportsbetting coups.

has this concept evolved?

was arsenal heavily backed? i thought the idea was twofold; back teams being opposed and in trouble, arsenal are bang in trouble so how come a lay? does the weight of money part supersede the part where a team are in trouble or do you just impart your own feeling to a game?

i only ask because when a system like this deviates so much from its initial forumala it just becomes opinionated punting dosent it?, and i think it's a good system.

250 up, stoke just pipped u too

but seriously, how did you pick the arsenal lay? incredible bet.

Arsenal were backed off the boards.

They opened about 1.5 and were backed into 1.36 (I think).

That is a pretty massive move in a Premiership match with well over £1 million traded.

200pts Fulham @ 1.95

Get on!

do you do requests mr camel?

if so id like a super sick acca, 20-1 minimum, 4+ selections,  tyvm.

1.78 for Celtic to beat Motherwell on betfair looks tasty.  Would seem that everyone now believes Celtic to be in crisis.  Not far off the mark IMO but 4/5 is value.

I don't know why I bother to pick bets for myself, Camel is the business

;tightend;  Nice one and thank you again :)

+ another

Chelsea are 19.5 on Betfair to win the league.  Is it possible for Man Utd to give up 10 pts with 12 games to go?  Their run in is marginally harder.  Any thoughts?  I might just have a hard time accepting Man Utd being successful, but I think 19.5 is worth a few shillings. 

You've had enough time to get used to the thought....

Bad end to the week, but it was due I suppose, I had been running super hot before this downswong.

Should definitely have had more on Fulham today, they were a great bet at virtually Evens.

Running Total +3027

Ipswich LOSE -400
Man U/Fulham goals LOSE -200
Derby LOSE -100
Shakthar LOSE -420
Arsenal WIN +285
Stoke LOSE -200
S Weds WIN +330
Preston LOSE -200
Plymouth LOSE -100
Doncaster LOSE -100
Fulham WIN +180
Running Total +2102 (21.02)

Do you have any/recommend any Champions Leagues bets?

Spurs too short at 2.3ish?

Dreading tonights game ... a fkin "must not lose" game is not good for the old ticker !

Think Spurs will win confortably. Money will be going where my mouth is.

I'll certainly be looking, but I'm far less confident of what the *correct* price should be in European games and the value has to be much more obvious than in domestic action before I wade in.

If I had a free bet I would certainly be on Hull but I haven't so at current prices I won't be having bet.. but if Spurs contract to 2.2 or so, I will be forced to get involved.

There is £65k+ someone is laying at 1.01, is that simply incase someone mis-clicks away £50 grand?!?!?

I intended to back Hull for this, but just seen the teams.

Hulls looks weakened and Surs have almost their full 11 on the pitch!!!

£200 @ 13/10.

one time, please scoop.

LAY 200pts UNDER 2.5 goals @ 1.8

(It's obviously the same as backing over 2.5 but a fraction better odds)

Easily persuaded here.
I can never get my head around the double negative of laying unders.

I really like not having to think for myself.

Typical solicitor.

Yessssssssssssss GTFI, ship the £260!!!

Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooody

TFFT

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee !!

Wiiiiiiiii, shibbbbbb.

oi, I spend my working hours working and thinking for the lazy, inadequate or both. You are my antidote, for which I thank you.

I was under the impression all solicitors did was "I refer the gentleman to Green versus Crown 1965" rather than actually have an unique thoughts of their own!

For that misunderstanding I apologise!!!

I refer the gentleman to the case of jumping vs the gun 1953

I have a habit of making unusual and original points. These have been described, unfairly I would suggest, as utter bullshit. Still, like spotting value, a result is a result.

They're nearly the same price at home to Swansea tonight...

Swansea are a much better side than West Brom, still value perhaps but a little more marginal I think.

Never!  In a one off cup tie maybe, player for player, squad for squad its easily West Brom...

Maybe I'll start another thread.

"The Free Money Thread", where I suggest trades that can't lose.. You can have what you like on Real Madrid to beat the scousers tomorrow at 11/10 at Ladbrokes (you'll have to do it in the shops..it's gone online) and then lay it back on Betfair.. I reckon it will start somewhere about 1.95.

They're 11/10 online with Betfred, Boylesports & Victor Chandler...

I have long since stopped looking at these bookies prices.. maximum bet £2.85 or something.

What price Barca this evening online ?  I got Evens at the bookies and thought that was valloooooooo

2.06, which after commission is about the same.

Yep, evens the best anywhere now, 9/10 in most places

www.oddschecker.com ftw

They are so slow updating market moves, I've given up on them.

I don't think they are value. TBH, I can't find any good bets tonight. I am shockingly gonna have a night off :O

I'm leaning to agree with you.

Arsenal seem very short at evens to beat Roma. Athletico Madrid are a fair price to beat Porto and yet again Birmingham are edging towards a value price at Palace.

But unless any of them move further I will just sit on my hands and not have a bet.

Barca were v disappointing at the weekend

 Gone for a comedy draw trixie on Arse,Man u and Barca.

I was gna go for draw trebles and doubles in all 4 of CL games myself. CBA with that now though.

Similar to Ripple

1   Arsenal v Roma (Laying  Arsenal @ 2.12)
2   Inter v Man Utd (Laying  Man Utd @ 3.54)
3   Lyon v Barcelona (Laying  Barcelona @ 2.14)

Arsenal v Roma - Lay Arsenal  - they cant score goals

Inter V Man U - Draw - man U will want that result

Lyon v Barcelona - Barcelona win

Where on earth have you got those prices from Graham?

They are awful value.. get onto Betfair mate!

I also like

Inter v Man u correct score 0-0 - 8.4


Inter v Man u - Under 1.5 goals  - 2.68

obv the way I am running it will be a goal fest  ;frustrated;

Taken from Betfair multiples, it's a small acca

Can't do anyting about them can you?  

I must admit I've never done mulitiples on Betfair..

But those odds are very shabby.

If I'd have laid them individually, they'd have been better.  I'm only a small stakes punter, the 20p difference isn't worth worrying about :D   

BUT IT DEFINITELY IS WORTH WORRYING ABOUT!!!!!!!!

Surely the whole point of having a bet is to win, long term. Having the satisfaction of "beating the odds"...

And whether your average bet is 50p or £5000 small (even tiny) differences in the odds you take and the odds you could take if you shop around make a huge differnce cummatively over the course of a year to whether you win or lose.

That's why I was very disappointed when boldie said he was only going to use paddy power for his bets in the staking thread. Just throwing money away.

I am involved now with the #32 tipster of the UK. If you want to know just check the link below.

from what i understand betfair multiples are a well known joke


arsenal madrid barca inter ht/ft acca about 150-1

I am guilty of not shopping around, but I do most of my betting (90% prob) on Betfair so assume, rightly or wrongly, that I'm getting a decent price.  I should look around more, perhaps I'd be a better off if I did.  I do take your point though

Keith would you ever not back something if you missed the price although considered it to be a "good thing" 

Laid these bets off and taken a profit - even the correct score -

Many a last minute goal has cost me in the past

happy

Basically, I make a price for a selection and if the price available is bigger than the price I make it, I back it.

I often back something and if the price drifts, I back it again. (Look at Newcastle and Liverpool earlier in this thread for examples)

I try not to think of "good things" or "certainties" because I'm prepared to back any of the three options in a football match.

i think every1 cleaned up :), rookie unlucky mate.

sigh, rub it in

Arsenal annoy me, now they let me down by winning, but not winning convincingly, just by a pen then fail to score as per usual.    I'm not often disapointed when Arsenal win, but they do it like this it's not so good.  Had Eboue scored that SITTER then I'd have been chuffed to bits!

Whats this mate?  Blog looks a bit bland at the mo! Someone you know?

He's the next big thing mate. Blog is just a start.

Tonights bets from him to come up @ 7pm.


My bets tonight are :

Bayern
Real
Bayern/Real dbl.

BFH?  Blunt Fckin Homer?

Juve are a massive price tonight, just lumped a few quid on them to beat an out of form chelsea team tonight @ 6.4

Also I have just bought corners @ 9.8 for £40 a point. Lets gogogogogo.

which game?

Sorry, Chelsea game.

Rooks how does this work please?

9.8 is the line on the corners...

I am playing £40 = 1.0

9 corners means I lose 0.8 of £40. 10 corners mean I win 0.2 of £40. So basically every corner is a swing of £40.

Having some of this ocrners stuff.  Never bet on corners before so it will be a laugh anyway

Good luck us :)

A couple of bets:

250pts Middlesbrough @ 3
100pts Chelsea/Juve OVER 2.5 @ 2.64

I did fancy QPR at 5.2 or bigger tonight, but just as I was about to step in, the price collapsed. No bet at 4.7 for me..

glgl, like your overs bet.

Not sure about Boro Keith, they are fkin woeful at the moment... I have a feeling that West Ham will turn them over tonight.

I understand you are value hunting and that boro's price is certainly that ... but I cant see them winning tonight.

Hope I am wrong (which is more likely than not ;) )

1-0 Boro :D :D :D :D

2-0 :)

I prefer cross/multi corners if i want to go higher.

Great price on a Chelsea game though as they've had a few corners this season.

Sandy

7 in the first, nice. Keep em coming.

PS gogogog bayern and real plz

7 corners?  So far so good.  Come on Real!!

Freeroll on the corners now - 10 atm. GOGOGOGOG.

Cmon real, score plz.

13..

sigh Liverpool have scored

14 corners total I think. Not bad, could have been more. Expected a couple of last attacks to result in corners but not one in last 10 mins

If West Ham keep playing like that they better watch out or they will be drawn into the relegation scrap...

Running Total +2102

Hull/Spurs goals WIN +190
Boro WIN +475
Chels/Juve goals LOSE -100

Running Total +2667 (26.67)

When I bet on corners, years ago, I used to have a stop loss/win. Is yours unlimited?

Yeah BF have the same stop loss. I could win about £288 I think, and lose a max of £190ish.

ChipRich has also now started a tipping blog.

It can be found here - http://shrewdie.blogspot.com/

lol

Avengance ftw :)

greasefire,

Brent just made this blog, and i have £0 so couldn't possibly bet

die bh

you cant deny their your tips tho mate, gogogogogogo.

[ ] id have backed them

If you add together the scores of the teams shrewdie picks in his acca against the teams he opposes, he wins 5-2!

That should count for something, surely.

Brilliant.

[ ] I will be following your tips with great interest, Rich.

[  ] your picks have done well in the past m8

[  ] my picks

[X] brents comedy picks to make me look ridic

haha so com. A+.

shreeeeeeeeeewwwdiiiiieeeee.

Lol i am the king of sports betting, stick with me Rich we will be millionaires.

[ ] I didn't notice on the profile that it lists Brents blog.

300pts Hull @ 2.38.

gogogogo

Missed the 2.38, got 2.34

Just request the price and see if it gets matched. That is what i have just done, in my experience 75% of the time you get it matched.

Nothing decent in the UEFA Cup Keith?

thanks, noted

I did have a good look, but nothing really appealed.

Milan @ 1.75 and Udinese @ 1.7 are both fair value, but not quite big enough to bet imo.

ship ship mcgipp

ty ty ty I forgot to check the scores, I have that much faith.

Wiiiii, nice one Camel.

Following you I actual might make a profit out of sports betting.

Quick question, do you actual price all the games up before looking at the odds. If so how do you go about this process?

I normally price up the games to 95% (which gives me a pretty big margin of error) and when a price is bigger than my price I have a bet.

Beware though, these bets are running really well at the moment. I would be very disappointed to lose on the year, but I'm running way, way, way ahead of expected ROI right now.

So how would you decide that Hull at 2.38 are value?  What makes them decent value at this price but not at...whatever would be?   What sort of things do you look out for?   Not expecting all your secrets obviously, but  I'm curious as to how it all works as I know very little about betting.

Thanks for this by the way :)

An easy question toask, without an easy answer.. but if you read these two articles they explain overround and value betting better than I could:

http://www.betrescue.com/football_odds_guide.shtml

http://www.betfinder.co.uk/articles/article4.asp

I price up a game to 95%.. and if a bookmakers price is bigger than mine, I have a bet. The bigger discrepancy, the more I have on.

I made Hull 6/5 to beat Sheffield last night.. 2.38 is nearly 11/8.. if they had been 6/4 or bigger I would have had a maximum bet.

How did I make them 6/5? That is where judgement comes into it.. I used to work in the betting industry and have priced up many thousands of events.. it's just experience and feel. I pretty confident I know what a price should be, as long as I've done enough background work.

Meanwhile...

200pts Doncaster @ 2.9.

Big price imo.

Cheers, will have a read :)
Come on the Donny!

Running Total +2667

Hull WIN +393
Doncaster WIN +361

Running Total +3421 (34.21)

Bugger had to go out tonight.

Still got on ldo.

Sadly not, on the way to dinner before tip was posted. Nice meal though.

Same here, well missed anyway, was after kick off by the time I realised and it wasn't in play!

Scoop the result, great going :)

Busy day..

500pts Bristol City @ 1.8
200pts Coventry @ 3.9
200pts Preston @ 2.54
LAY 300pts Reading @ 1.55
LAY 300pts Wolves @ 1.5

gogogogogo

Have a shilling on Fulham please Mr Hawkins ... your golden coin will ensure the goons dont win and keep their sorry arses out of the top 4 :)

Add

300pts Liverpool @ 1.87.

(Couldn't back Fulham with forged money today at 11, Sorry Sir Kev)

Lay the arse for a fiver Keith ... Just for me xxx

Or the points equivalent of a fiver ;)

nice start keith

One time please Bristol bloody City.

Liverpool are really trying to screw with you also.

Would have been a jackpot day if Bristol City had managed to convert one of their chances (or I had the balls to back Forest or Plymouth).. still pretty decent imo

Running Total +3421

Bristol City LOSE -500
Reading WIN +285
Wolves WIN +285
Liverpool LOSE -300
Coventry WIN +551
Preston WIN +292

Running Total +4034 (40.34)

wp

Shame my broad band has been down since this morning.

200pts West Ham/Man City OVER 2.5 goals @ 2.22

I nearly backed Hull and Birmingham, but the prices aren't quite big enough yet.. keep tuned in.

come on ... own up, you DID lay the @rse for a fiver didnt you :D

The way they are playing, blondepoker U13 girls XI could get a point at the Arse..

They forced me into backing Brum

100pts Birmingham @ 3.4.

manu 8/11 in 90 mins is simply huge

on at 3/4

[ ] gl

I see that QPR are in a run of fine form too ;)

If brum get something out of this it would be daylight robbery. Come on daylight robbery, ONE TIME.

edit: brum were poor but wow the officials didn't do them any favours.

[ ] Hope you didnt do your bollocks

sky bet had Man u 4/6  Totn 11/10 for shoot out

thats about right. Man utd had more players with composure who have been there done that. Although i got rooks to lay me an even bullseye on Man Utd

Just me who never ever ever ever fancied Bently to stick it away?

Anything on tonight Keith? I've got a double on Everton and Villa @ 7.4 on BF

Camel cannot access blonde at the moment, as he is in Dubai, where, I gather, blonde is "blocked".

He's at the gee-gees today, with a certain Compo-ness I believe.

Camel & Compo, what a double act. Love to see those two play a little PLO.

 ;gobsmacked;

LOL ... thats an image i could well do without !!

getting back on track...


King to beat Taylor in the PLD tonight

King on 8 points with 100% record after 4 weeks
Taylor lost last week to wade and drew week before to Jenkins

King to beat taylor is Priced @ 6/1

FML

Missed the bet of the season while I was sunning my fat arse in Dubai.

How the hell did Birmingham start at 11/10 at home to Southampton?

Plain stupid.

Anyways..

Today at Cheltenham Binocular is just far far too big at 7/4.. and you won't beat it on Betfair at the moment.. so get on with the traditional bookmakers and save the commssion!

400pts Binocular @ 7/4

Welcome back

Thanks Robert.. let's get the Binocular money back on:

LAY 500pts Swansea @ 1.63
300pts Wolves @ 1.95
300pts Preston @ 2.1
200pts Birmingham @ 2.8

gogogogogo

"sadly" I couldn't get the value on Binocular. Off to fire up Betfair. Still on the mini stakes but pot is building, who knows by Xmas I could afford a bottle of something nice for you.

wiiiiii, I can stop losing money now :D

Welcome back, hope you had a nice time

Terrible night.. :( only good thing was Wolves not being matched at 1.95.. that was a nice surprise as I was front of the queue at 1.95, so obv never hit that price requested.

fk me what a bad night to jump on the band waggon!   :o

[  ] a truly gr8 gr8 night
[  ] with many many winners

[  ] glad ur back also

No need for that rubdown, hes up loads overall.

+ 1

[ ] You didn't bok him

For the record I followed the selections, I lost, my choice to bet. Looking forward to next selections and will thank El Camelo again for sharing.

Tough card today imo.

Two bets only:

200pts Sunderland @ 2.62
200pts Preston @ 2.18

I quite fancy Liverpool at Old Trafford

buy the goals too IMO, Man U have conceded loads recently

( ;gobsmacked;)

after timer!

Only truly great teams win 4-1 at Old Trafford.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35SXBpIyG_k

Hallelujah Dennis Bailey!

Possibly the finest youtube clip available. And all without Sir Leslie Ferdinand.

Everyone should thank you for sharing.

Is it just my gooner-eyed slant on things or are Villa starting to look attractive @ 2.20 ?

Yes.

If it reaches 2.28 I will definitely be backing them.

[ ] GL if you get on.

No sooner do I type that..

300pts Aston Villa @ 2.28

This could be the most exciting game I've seen all season.

C'mon Villa.

Blimey, im exhausted just watching it .... gonna be a siege second half, i hope we can nick another on the break.

weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

bah, man I hate spurs.  Money lost and 3 points for them.   FML

On the plus, does help the Arse a bit

Game not over yet ... more goals here.

Massive result ... weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee !!

Nice result at Villa Park Kev, but The big 4 in the top 4 spots is just Boooooorrrriiiiinnnnngggggg!!!!

Celtic and Rangers ain't always in the top 2 up here.....Honest!!

I know West Ham have quite a few players out injured, but this about the third time I've seen them recently and they are absolutely shocking. How they occupy such a lofty position in the premiership ia a sad indictment of the quality of top flight football outside the top 4.

I can only hope the Hammers finish in a UEFA cup spot, so I can lump on them to get relegated at 14/1 or whatever next season.

Camel, Reading at Donny tonight, nearing 2.45-2.50, a month ago they would have been around evens no?  Donny have been on a good run, Reading the opposite, but is this form fairly reflected do you think in such a move in price?

I like Hull @ a huge 11/1

they are on a piss poor run, but 11/1 is too big

I can't find a bet for love nor money tonight.

Actually prefer Donny at the prices in this heat. Burnley might be too big at Ipswich. QPR are nearly a bet too.

But, leaving the cash in my pocket tonight I think.

 rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao

1-0 Hull !!

Now, Time to Lay off.

Laid @ 4.4

Book looks like this:

Arse £0.00
Hull +£72.20
Draw £0.00

What's so funny?

If they finish 5th this season, they will be double figures to get relegated next season.

Did you not consider laying Hull a bit more so you win whatever the result?

Another tought card imo.

I wouldn't put anyone off Blackburn at Evens against West Ham, but I would need slightly bigger to get involved.

Three small bets:

200pts Preston @ 3.1
200pts Southampton @ 3.35
100pts Doncaster @ 3.75

glglgl

I did spread a little more profit over the other results later in the game, only £20ish i think. The odds were pants tho.

Liverpool to bottle it !!!!

1.5 to win at home Vs Aston Villa is to short IMO

worth a lay

hammered madid,man u.. did u expect evens at home to villa

lol 5-0 to the 'Pool

[ ] Good Call

I was going to let this thread die peacefully.

We made a few quid but the run I was on at the end was shocking and I hate tipping losers.

But the fact Tiger Woods is considerably shorter now (after one round) than he was prior to the start makes absolutely no sense to me when he is 5 behind the leader.

To my eyes he is playing nowhere near his best at the moment. He is over hitting alot of iron shots and his putting is very hot and cold.

I guess we are about 2500 points up on this system.

Let's LAY Tiger Woods 1000pts @ 3.1.

I always respect your opinion Keith but Tiger played great today and very narrowly missed half a dozen putts, I reckon he's a great bet at 3.1. Every time he's won the Masters he shot 70 in the first round, he's never shot lower. I'm on large pre tourney and will go in again shortly. Can we get the footie tips going again? You were on fire for a bit.

Keith, sorry to disagree but in my eyes Tiger looks to be swinging better than ever, far more in control meaning far less wayward shots and had he holed a couple of putts he'd have been odds-on which might then have been a reasonable lay.

Lay him at your peril would be my advice at that price, I'm on at an average of 3.75 and am waiting to lay a bit of evens.(I could have laid 5/4)

Noooooooooooo

OK there was a run of losers but that is the game you're playing, it's the hits that make up for the losses, and more.

I didn't get all the winners and but got my fair share of losers but willing to keep the faith. I think I ended up evens so far but was having fun.

1000pts duly placed, gulp.

I thought he was too short pre tournament. I thought he should be 3/1 or even 7/2. Maybe I'm wrong about that.

But I'm certain he shouldn't be shorter after that first round than he was pre tournament.

I've layed him for my absolute maximum.

Well let's hope I lay off my Tiger bet @ evens before Cabrera wins and you are proved right ;)

I think Tiger is a fantastic Lay at the current price and have acted accordingly.

Lets gogogogo Camel.

I layed Tiger at 3.7 ......got half way out at 4.6...........

I feel quite comfortable with my current liability on the Tiger.

As usual after the first round Tiger has put himself in a position where he has to perform and he has little room for error.  I admit he is the best in the world when he has to do it, but Augusta is a different golf course, the margins between a brilliant shot and trouble are so small. To win at Augusta you need to have a bit of luck on your side. With so many good players already given a head start he needs to close the gap soon so he can start to apply pressure. If he doesnt perform today he could easily be 8 shots back starting the weekend.

Having had a good think about it I've come around to your way of thinking Keith, no way would I be backing Tiger at the current 2/1.

I've offloaded 2/3rd's of my bet @ 3.1 and hope to be able to get back on at a bigger price later.

+1

Laid at 2.98 Waiting for a good price to close it down. Have seen Woods offered, very briefly at 3.55, was tempted to take it. What would you folks grab at?

Let it riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide.

laid him off last night for 6 pts gogogo

I think it's highly unlikely Tiger will ever be a value price if he has shortened after that first round.

I'm letting it ride.

Being risk averse wimp I am, taken 600pts profit. Thanks for the tip.

Please don't let this thread die Keith.