blonde poker forum

villain is 25/21 (~500 hands)
10% 3bet from that position
80% cbet flop and turn

is this ok? is 4bet to get it in pre better?
as played, i can't see how calling turn is any good. maybe i'm wrong.

6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: sb ($100.50 in chips)
Seat 2: bb ($119.50 in chips)
Seat 3: hero ($109.55 in chips)
Seat 4: villain ($103 in chips)
Seat 5: btn ($151.65 in chips)
sb: posts small blind $0.50
bb: posts big blind $1

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero [9c 9d]
hero: raises $2 to $3
villain: raises $6.10 to $9.10
btn: folds
sb: folds
bb: folds
hero: calls $6.10

*** FLOP *** [4s 2c 7c]
hero: checks
villain: bets $11.60
hero: calls $11.60

*** TURN *** [4s 2c 7c] [5c]
hero: checks
villain: bets $19.95
hero: raises $68.90 to $88.85 and is all-in

never get $100 in pre with 99

flop comes like it did i aim to get it in then,  I dont like the flat call  as you dont have a clue where you are in the hand and when the  5c come you could be a million miles behind

Dont really understand why we're raising turn with a hand that has so much showdown value at this point? Yes there's alot of minging rivers but your only getting call by better IMO.

there is not one card i want to see on the river. i think i check fold river if he bets so might as well fold turn.
however, ott i think i am probably a head more often than not and usually have some equity *when* called unless up against overpairs with clubs or flushes.

i also think getting it in on the flop is pretty bad as i'm always doing badly against anything that calls. i believe i have more fold equity when cr the turn.

folding turn seems right (?!) but also weak

this is very 2006 way of thinking imo and v.wrong. here's my thoughts..

theres plenty spots to get 99 in pre, for example vs a guy who has been running you over, you find 99 in sb and he see's you as weak aggro, he 4bets and we pick up 25bbs when he folds 90% of the time. BVB it's very std too, co vs btn with correct dynamic etc.

on the flop, getting it in vs his value range is abs suicide, we are completely crushed and hoping for him to have 2 overs and fd (which beats us more than 50% of the time) raising for info is obviously abs terrible and may aswell set your money on fire. we're also not repping much so will call down so that rules out turning out hand into a bluff.

Pretty standard fold preflop given you've opened UTG. It's a little bit complicated by his 10% 3bet stat vs UTG opens... but you only have a sample size of 500 hands so I wouldn't take this into account much.

If this hand was CO/BTN or BTN/BB then we can get this in for very thin value preflop provided the villain is suitably aggro with his 3betting. If we know he 3bets/5bets small pocket pairs in LP dynamics then we want to 4bet small and call his 5bet jam. If we know he doesn't tend to 3bet small pairs then it is a bit more awkward and there is even an argument for 4bet jamming (since when he 5bet jams with his bluffs he often has stuff that we'd prefer him to have folded i.e. crappy overs that still have good equity vs our hand). But even in LP dynamics getting 99 in preflop is very very far from a fist-pumping spot, it is mainly for capitalization of dead money... i.e. most of our profit comes from when he folds, not from when we get it in.

turn play is a bit of a clusterfuck i'm afraid to say.

We basically have the top of our bluff-cathing range meaning we cant shove for value and like pads says we cannot bluff with this hand, our options are to hero him down (as good a spot as any here with the club draw equity) - we might river the club here and would be a great spot for us to bluff-catch, or to fold. Personally I'd fold because despite his high(ish) 3b% its a small sample so chances are in this sample he's only 3b 2-3 times and thats pretty negligible we have no reason not to give him credit for "it" here, sure we;ll get bluffed or semi-bluffed a bit and fold the best hand some but we're OOP with a range perceived to be capped and against a range we have to give credit for being strong so if he bluffs, let him bluff, it's a good spot - we don't have to win every hand.

agree with Stu as well r.e preflop, couldn't possibly comment about when we should be 4/5/8betting or whatever vs who but pads/stu's previous posts seem pretty spot on to me

if 99 is a fold pre, is tt too? and jj?

JJ is different because our equity vs his legitimate value range (mainly cos he has 5 less JJ combos) is a bit higher and we do better vs AIR as well.

tyvm superlim and all