blonde poker forum

Hi all,

I am putting up for sale 20% of my WSOP Main Event action, will be doing it by auction so that I don't have to worry about setting a price and nobody will miss out at a price they would have paid. If the price is right I might even up it to 30% but we'll see. As always, everyone will pay the price of the lowest winning bid. I'm closing the auction at 5pm on Monday (4pm for bids by pm).

The horse:

My name is James Keys, I live in Nottingham and many people can vouch for my trustworthiness, not least the members of this forum to whom I paid out over $600k after my Aussie Millions win 2nd place. Tournament career so far:

http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=91657
http://www.officialpokerrankings.com/pokerstars/skolsuper/poker/ratings/461F6D02129743649E33C3BE796334C7.html?t=3
http://www.officialpokerrankings.com/ongamepoker/skolsuper1/poker/ratings/F7046F4514994CCC8C5B7A0D8708ECA1.html?t=3

The tournament:

I will be playing the $10k buyin WSOP Main Event on Day 1C, Monday 9th July 2012. This tournament has the slowest clock+structure of any major tournament (any other live tournament at all?) and many thousands of satellite qualifiers. Huge field + slow structure = very decent ROIs, not to mention the standard of the field which I feel will be very soft, although I hesitate to use the term "insane edge". I honestly believe, as a player with good fundamentals, lots of live experience and a v good mental game, I will cash this tournament >20% of the time and have a long term ROI in excess of 300%, but as always these things are hard to quantify and the long term is a long way away, hence I am selling shares.

Money:

Will accept any of the following: £ bank transfer, $ in Vegas, $/£/€ on stars or even $ on moneybookers, but will need to be paid by June 30th or will cancel + resell that share as, although I trust most everybody, I don't want to be freerolled for the potential amounts involved in this tournament. Will use xe.com rate +0.5% for conversion to $ from other currencies. Will pay out any return shares in dollars, payout in £s can be requested but I will have to pay out at the rate I receive when exchanging the $s (I usually do pretty well at getting close to xe though).

So to summarise, I am selling minimum 20% (although may sell another 10 if the price is right), 1% is $100 without markup (minimum bid size 0.5%) and the auction will close at 5pm on Monday 18th June. Small print to follow. Happy bidding!

5% @ 1.3

I am selling 20% of my gross prize money in the 2012 WSOP Main Event. Currency conversions will be done at the xe.com rate +0.5% at the time the auction closes.
Payments must be made by UK bank transfer, in USD$ cash in Vegas, 'Stars transfer or $ Moneybookers transfer before July 1st 2012.
Everyone who is interested in buying a piece should make a bid for a certain percentage with the maximum price they would be prepared to pay for that piece. e.g. pleno 5% @ 1.8
All the bids are arranged in descending order by price* and the top 20 percentiles** at 17:00:00 on Monday 18th June win the auction.
Every winner pays the price of the lowest winning bid.

*In the event of a tie, the bid made first chronologically will take precedence
**This may involve one person receiving only part of the percentage that they bid for.

You can make as many bids as you like, e.g. if you would buy 10% at 1.1 but only 5% at 1.2, you can make 2 bids, 5@1.1 and 5@1.2, if the strike price finishes 1.1 or below you will have 10%, between 1.1 and 1.2 you will get 5% and over 1.2 you won't buy any.
Bids will be rounded to 2 decimal places, i.e. 1.333 will be considered the same as 1.33 and ranked chronologically
Bids are binding and cannot be withdrawn, I am ending the auction in plenty of time to chase everyone up for payment before the event.
To prevent any <0.5 shenanigans, the minimum price will be 1.0
In the event of some unforeseen dispute arising the referee's* decision will be final.

*me

20% 1.4

5% @ 1.4.

Good luck James!

2% @1.4 please

1% @ 1.51 pls

1% @ 2.0 pls

2% 1.45 pls

All the above booked ty, also received 1 pm, list is as follows:

luckyblind: 1% @ 2.0
neeko: 1% @ 1.51
TL900: 1% @ 1.45
Simon Galloway: 2% @ 1.45
Rupert: 15% @ 1.4

Rupert: 5% @ 1.4
tikay: 5% @ 1.4
tonytats: 2% @ 1.4
Alex: 5% @ 1.3

At the minute the reserve price for the extra 10% has not been met so only selling 20 as it stands. Current price 1.4.

1% at 1.42

booked ty. Had a bid on fb as well, new list:

luckyblind: 1% @ 2.0
neeko: 1% @ 1.51
Alex Wakeham: 1% @ 1.5
TL900: 1% @ 1.45
Simon Galloway: 2% @ 1.45
pleno1: 1% @ 1.42
Rupert: 13% @ 1.4

Rupert: 7% @ 1.4
tikay: 5% @ 1.4
tonytats: 2% @ 1.4
cambridgealex: 5% @ 1.3

1% at 1.48, 2% at 1.43

That's some good windmilling there, new list:

luckyblind: 1% @ 2.0
neeko: 1% @ 1.51
Alex Wakeham: 1% @ 1.5
pleno1: 1% @ 1.48
TL900: 1% @ 1.45
Simon Galloway: 2% @ 1.45
pleno1: 2% @ 1.43
pleno1: 1% @ 1.42
Tommo: 5% @ 1.41
Rupert: 5% @ 1.4

Rupert: 15% @ 1.4
tikay: 5% @ 1.4
tonytats: 2% @ 1.4
cambridgealex: 5% @ 1.3

1%@ 1.7

20% 1.52

2%at1.5 cash in Vegas via yourself ,Alex ,Mitch ,stato, ? Ok I presume if successful ?

Fett, Rupert + tony, booked ty, yes cash in Vegas will be fine however you get it to me. As it stands:

luckyblind: 1% @ 2.0
Boba fett: 1% @ 1.7
Rupert: 18% @ 1.52

Rupert: 2% @ 1.52
neeko: 1% @ 1.51
Alex Wakeham: 1% @ 1.5
tonytats: 1% @ 1.5
pleno1: 1% @ 1.48
TL900: 1% @ 1.45
Simon Galloway: 2% @ 1.45
pleno1: 2% @ 1.43
pleno1: 1% @ 1.42
Tommo: 5% @ 1.41
Rupert: 5% @ 1.4
Rupert: 15% @ 1.4
tikay: 5% @ 1.4
tonytats: 2% @ 1.4
cambridgealex: 5% @ 1.3

Reserve met? :)

Not yet, was thinking around Fett's number  ;)

you know if i win an auction that means everyone else is doing it wrong, #gotem

3.5% at 1.55

Booked ty

luckyblind: 1% @ 2.0
Boba fett: 1% @ 1.7
The Camel: 3.5% @ 1.55
Rupert: 14.5% @ 1.52

Rupert: 5.5% @ 1.52
neeko: 1% @ 1.51
Alex Wakeham: 1% @ 1.5
tonytats: 1% @ 1.5
pleno1: 1% @ 1.48
TL900: 1% @ 1.45
Simon Galloway: 2% @ 1.45
pleno1: 2% @ 1.43
pleno1: 1% @ 1.42
Tommo: 5% @ 1.41
Rupert: 5% @ 1.4
Rupert: 15% @ 1.4
tikay: 5% @ 1.4
tonytats: 2% @ 1.4
cambridgealex: 5% @ 1.3

2% 1.6

2% at 1.6

^both booked ty

luckyblind: 1% @ 2.0
Boba fett: 1% @ 1.7
Boba fett: 2% @ 1.6
pleno1: 2% @ 1.6
The Camel: 3.5% @ 1.55
Rupert: 10.5% @ 1.52

Rupert: 9.5% @ 1.52
neeko: 1% @ 1.51
Alex Wakeham: 1% @ 1.5
tonytats: 1% @ 1.5
pleno1: 1% @ 1.48
TL900: 1% @ 1.45
Simon Galloway: 2% @ 1.45
pleno1: 2% @ 1.43
pleno1: 1% @ 1.42
Tommo: 5% @ 1.41
Rupert: 5% @ 1.4
Rupert: 15% @ 1.4
tikay: 5% @ 1.4
tonytats: 2% @ 1.4
cambridgealex: 5% @ 1.3

James I bid for 2% at 1.4 ,then increased my bid to 1.5 % for 2 % but you have it down as 1% ,am I wrong ?

1% @ 1.63 pls

Sorry, yes you're right I did mistype your %, it's incidental now anyway, price has gone above 1.5.

booked neeko ty

luckyblind: 1% @ 2.0
Boba fett: 1% @ 1.7
neeko: 1% @ 1.63
Boba fett: 2% @ 1.6
pleno1: 2% @ 1.6
The Camel: 3.5% @ 1.55
Rupert: 9.5% @ 1.52

Rupert: 10.5% @ 1.52
neeko: 1% @ 1.51
Alex Wakeham: 1% @ 1.5
tonytats: 2% @ 1.5
pleno1: 1% @ 1.48
TL900: 1% @ 1.45
Simon Galloway: 2% @ 1.45
pleno1: 2% @ 1.43
pleno1: 1% @ 1.42
Tommo: 5% @ 1.41
Rupert: 20% @ 1.4
tikay: 5% @ 1.4
tonytats: 2% @ 1.4
cambridgealex: 5% @ 1.3

2%at2.0

booked ty.

luckyblind: 1% @ 2.0
tonytats: 2% @ 2.0
Boba fett: 1% @ 1.7
neeko: 1% @ 1.63
Boba fett: 2% @ 1.6
pleno1: 2% @ 1.6
The Camel: 3.5% @ 1.55
Rupert: 7.5% @ 1.52

Rupert: 12.5% @ 1.52
neeko: 1% @ 1.51
Alex Wakeham: 1% @ 1.5
tonytats: 2% @ 1.5
pleno1: 1% @ 1.48
TL900: 1% @ 1.45
Simon Galloway: 2% @ 1.45
pleno1: 2% @ 1.43
pleno1: 1% @ 1.42
Tommo: 5% @ 1.41
Rupert: 20% @ 1.4
tikay: 5% @ 1.4
tonytats: 2% @ 1.4
cambridgealex: 5% @ 1.3

< 30 mins left for bids by pm or skype etc if you're lurking. 1hr 30 for bids itt.

Auction now closed to pm and fb bids, got one to add from facebook just now:

luckyblind: 1% @ 2.0
tonytats: 2% @ 2.0
Boba fett: 1% @ 1.7
neeko: 1% @ 1.63
Boba fett: 2% @ 1.6
pleno1: 2% @ 1.6
The Camel: 3.5% @ 1.55
Matt Cuthbertson: 2% @ 1.54
Rupert: 5.5% @ 1.52

Rupert: 14.5% @ 1.52
neeko: 1% @ 1.51
Alex Wakeham: 1% @ 1.5
tonytats: 2% @ 1.5
pleno1: 1% @ 1.48
TL900: 1% @ 1.45
Simon Galloway: 2% @ 1.45
pleno1: 2% @ 1.43
pleno1: 1% @ 1.42
Tommo: 5% @ 1.41
Rupert: 20% @ 1.4
tikay: 5% @ 1.4
tonytats: 2% @ 1.4
cambridgealex: 5% @ 1.3

approx 55 mins left for bids on the thread.

11% @ 1.56

Sandy

top quality sniping sir, final list:

luckyblind: 1% @ 2.0
tonytats: 2% @ 2.0
Boba fett: 1% @ 1.7
neeko: 1% @ 1.63
Boba fett: 2% @ 1.6
pleno1: 2% @ 1.6
henrik777: 11% @ 1.56

The Camel: 3.5% @ 1.55
Matt Cuthbertson: 2% @ 1.54
Rupert: 20% @ 1.52
neeko: 1% @ 1.51
Alex Wakeham: 1% @ 1.5
tonytats: 2% @ 1.5
pleno1: 1% @ 1.48
TL900: 1% @ 1.45
Simon Galloway: 2% @ 1.45
pleno1: 2% @ 1.43
pleno1: 1% @ 1.42
Tommo: 5% @ 1.41
Rupert: 20% @ 1.4
tikay: 5% @ 1.4
tonytats: 2% @ 1.4
cambridgealex: 5% @ 1.3

which makes the final price 1.56, $156 per 1%.

Amounts owed:

luckyblind: $156
tonytats: $312
Boba fett: $468
neeko: $156
pleno1: $312
henrik777: $1716

If you guys could let me know how you would like to pay I will get back to you with details.

Ty to everyone that bid, will do my very best to get the winners a return, fingers crossed for another one in the 7-figure category :)

Marvellous news.

gl anyway.

I still think there's a reasonable chance that the 11 was a typo... hang in there mate

It wasn't. The only mistake was 4 seconds early :)

Bank transfer for me please.

Sandy

Tyty, pm on its way.

sent stars. gl

fyp

also sent you $600 for stato - $912 total to your stars account.

do wins.

Cash in Vegas I'm there from Wednesday ,via yourself Alex Andrew or Mitch is ok ? I presume ?

Wow, incredible stuff, well done James.

First time I've really seen it work "as designed", I think.

Good luck, win the bloody lot.

@pleno: got the 312 but not the 600 as yet

@tonytats: yeah any of those would be fine tyvm

@tikay: actually not amazed/surprised at the price tbh, think I'd be value at higher, but I guess I would think that  :D

yeh it went to stato, no idea. lol

gl

I think you would & could have got more if you had just "sold" at, say, 1.7 or 1.8, I'm quite sure it would have sold out.

Many of us still have to get used to this Auction thing, it is quite awkward in some ways, because folks don't want to be seen to make a fool of themselves with bids that are out of line. In that respect, a Blind Auction might work better, but it brings with it lack of transparency, & the obvious possibilities of funny business, & nobody wants to go down that route. 

If you are going to have an auction (which I really don't like btw), do you really think you should have a cutoff time?

It should be alike an auctioneers, when a new bid is made, the other bidders should have time to respond with a revised offer imo.

Going.

Going.

Gone.

xe.com says

156.00 USD    =    99.5670 GBP
US Dollar         British Pound
1 USD = 0.638250 GBP         1 GBP = 1.56678 USD

99.567 *1.005 = £100.0648

I assume grimming you out of the 6p and sending £100.00 to your bank account as previously is ok.

GL in your quest for second winning.

Yep that's fine mate. I reserve the right to deduct 6p from your $80k winnings tho

Had a change of heart since this?

Obviously!

great thread James and best of luck in Vegas.

Thats the reason I made it lowest winning bid, like eBay. If you would have paid higher than 1.56 then the idea was that you could be able to bid that and not have to pay it unless there was demand up to that price. After all, there has to be a cutoff somewhere or the auction might not finish before the tournament starts.

The problem with this auction was, unlike eBay, everyone can see what price you'd be prepared to go to, and poker players never like to show their hands. I tried an auction with closed bidding, but it disappeared off the top of the staking board and received very few bids. I think there may be a middle ground, where bids are closed but I update the thread with the current cutoff price (and possibly name of bidder), then publish a list of winners after the auction, so there are no issues with transparency. It's still a work in progress. Sorry you missed out this time.

How about a Dutch auction mate. Start with your 50% at 3.0 and come down 0.1 at a time say every hour. People have to pay what they bid until all percentiles are sold out. Might be fun.

Rec'd from neeko and Sandy tyvm

Thought I posted here yesterday but internet was playing up. Can you PM me bank details and how much to send in sterling for my %. Cheers.

Yeah I remember seeing a post of yours somewhere, just couldn't reply as I was on my phone at the time + in a rush. Pm on its way

Oioi mate. Get it won x

Lost AA v AQs for 300k, 44 vs 33 for 400k, JJ into KK for 150k and QQ to KK for 320k today. </moan>

Not especially happy obviously but will still play my 218k tomorrow to the best of my ability, still got lots of equity so won't throw it away frivolously.

Best of luck James

Good Luck Hero! X

Go go go

Gl James! Glad I got in for my only WSOP 2012 bullet :)

I had 2 horses. The other one can't play, is 300 years old, grumpy and is an advil junkie. Looks like his 12th place is gonna beat the superstar though rotflmfao ;slavedriver;

Go go go.

Sandy

Gl today James

GL today Mr Keys.

Another day another dollar, run good ;)

Sandy

All the best today.

Get that heater on the go!!!

Good luck James.

279th place for $38,453. Will repay everyone's shares by £££ bank transfer unless they request otherwise. Will probs need you to ship your details by pm. Ty for the backing, looked like we had a chance at one point.

Great effort James

Another fine roi. Wp

Actually fell 15% short of my predicted 300% roi.

Great effort, fine run, wp.

wp James, details the same as last time lmk on Skype if you need 'em again.

Great effort James! Looking forward to next one :)

Yeah shame on you. Not as short as some of those that sold higher tho. Pity there is not anything as detailed as OPR for live players and the hendonmob and the fact people believe that these comps are ridic soft are the only things we have to go on. I have a feeling you are gonna final the wsope if you can bother to go.

Sucks you ran so bad. Wpretty sure would have been over 300% if you ran normal

Yeah I'm sure backers all over the world put up hundreds of millions of dollars based on their hunch that WSOP tournaments might be soft.

Don't they not all say that the main event is one of the softest comps Dan. Pretty sure it is a dam site easier to negotiate than the super 50 at Dtd That I am setting off for

If they all think the main event is softer than the super 50 they would be all wrong.  There are clearly soft spots in the main event, but there aren't more than in the super 50 and the tough spots in the main event are going to be way tougher.

People usually overestimate the softness of the wsop events.  Probs no surprise given the circumstances where they do so.

Ofc the plo8 is the exception that proves the rule.

The table draw is absolutely crucial for the Main Event.

The year I went deep I didn't face a good player who had position on me throughout the 6 days I was in.

My expected ROI was probably somewhere north of 500%

The year afterwards, my starting table included Phil Galfond, Ed Moncada, 2 members of Team Pokerstars Online and a couple of Internet wizards.

I was definitely -ev on that table.

I struggled with some of the mark ups this year for that reason, table draw is everything in this.
2 lads that sold on here got bad day 1 draws and didn't see the day out, both are good poker players too.
Does the amount of value in the comp outweigh this Keith ?

Obv some people are value no matter who they draw.

fwiw from talking on breaks etc I think the team ran pretty terrible with table draws.

For a table to be 'bad' in the main I'd say you'd need at least two other good aggro players, only one or two complete whales and the rest being competent I'd say that represents <5% of tables on day 1, probably rising to 10-15% on day 2. Even then it can be ok if the good aggro guys are a few seats to your right and you have one of the whales on your right too.

I'd say that your 'average' day one table will have 3 or 4 players that require darvin moon rungood to even cash.

Forgot to say it's gonna take me a couple of weeks to get the cash into ££ in your accounts sry.

RE: the ROI debate, it's easy to forget there are 6000 runners in this comp and therefore it is absolutely ridic high variance. On day 2 when I finished with 234k chips, that was roughly 0.1% of the chips in play. If you equate that to a 0.1% chance of me finishing in 1st place (not a stretch, in fact a conservative estimate), that gives me an expectation of $8.5k just from the times I win the tournament, even though it's still a 999/1 shot. Add in just the other final table positions and a big chunk of my equity is only realised a v small % of the time.

Fortunately the variance is very much reduced by it being ridiculously soft and such a slow structure. It would be selection bias if I were to say how often I have cashed this tournament or point to players who have cashed it 3 in a row or 6 out of 10 times or whatever, but it would be an interesting experiment if we were to crowdsource say 100 players who we think are 'good' and see how many of them cash the main next year, or pick 20 players and track it over 5 years. I would bet on it being over 20% if I agree with the player selections. If I were to suggest only a few players that I have played with extensively and I 'know' are good +ev players, I would pick:

Me
Keith
Mitch
Stato
Giblin
Rupert
Toby
Brammer
Jake
George
Alex
Dan Morgan
Marc Wright

I would definitely bet on the above listed players to cash more often than 1 in 5, so basically you're freerolling the big binks if you buy a piece or swap with a wide selection of good players. In fact with some names in that list I would bet on more than 1 in 4, but I'll leave it up to you to guess which ones. Sorry to anyone I left out...

No worries.

Sandy

you wrote all that just to tilt Alex.

wp

Wut? Alex is on there, just realised I left off Deadman tho. Hopefully he hasn't figured out how to find the other boards yet...

Thigh's not impressed

Well done in the main event.

Why does it take a couple of weeks to pay out please to the % folk?

If i want to buy a car i'll just ship instant online. The money is there off it goes.   

Regards

M

I assume people are paid by cheque, so Keys would have to fly to the UK, then bank the cheque, wait for it to clear etc.

I think 1.5 is a very fair mark up for a solid winning player with plenty of live experience.

Some of the play is almost unbelievably bad.

However, as with all things, there is a tendency for playrs to over value their expected value. But almost all players do that in every tournament they play obv!

What is your problem?  What is going on with this forum?  Are you an investor in this stake?  Is it any of your business?  Are you the person who sent PMs accusing a well known blonde of "not trying" last year just before he binked $100k?  The same person who started slating another in Marcs thread.  I really would like to know if you just sit around, waiting for an opportunity to get a sly dig in or find a thread you can de-rail

Just go and get a life.  You are the worst type of troll I have seen for a long time and this forum - I don't give a s**t how long you have been posting on here...would be a better place without you.  Absolute joker.

Regards S

What a great post.

Glad someone said it Shaun.

Regards C

It's got to be remembered though.. for someone to be value at 1.5, their expected ROI should be approaching 2.

Obviously you are more likey to get value from someone at spot, because there are alot more players with a 1.5  ev than 2.0!

Sorry you are the last person to join the party of what is right or wrong!

Regards

M

blah. was just agreeing with shaun. Seemed a remark regarding james integrity. And if u didnt have a piece, it seemed like u had no real place to question how long it may take him to pay.

Railtard > You in the blonde community ainec.

Are you human mpower?

Just chopped the super 50. Fucking knew I should have played the wsop main this year :(

I couldn't send their share of the WSOP cash online instantly because the dollars wouldn't fit into my cd drive.

To those actually interested in the process:

I haven't yet collected the money from the rio because the bank isn't open today and I don't want the cash lying around.
Tomorrow I will collect the money and go to the bank and deposit it into my account (I have a US bank account which comes in very handy)
I will then transfer the money to a forex company who send £££ to my uk bank account.
Once that arrives I will send out the transfers to the backers.

The above process will actually probably only take 5-7 working days, but I said a couple of weeks to be safe. Also I am staying in Vegas until Saturday and therefore don't want to send out all my dollars before I know how much I'll need for the coming week (I'll be playing cash). Rather than do 2 transfers and double the transaction costs I will just wait until Friday to send what dollars I have in one go, however if anyone is genuinely in need of their money in a hurry I can move it forward a few days.

Personally I'm fine pay when u get back James ,bank transfer or cash on your way to dtd

Have a great rest of time in Vegas ,wish I was still there as well

Well Done James, and congrats to all backers too!

Congrats on the result, PM sent with bank details, enjoy Vegas.

Vicarious live poker (via twitter) FTW.

Perfectly fine with me. Was expecting longer to be fair, have heard some horrors about WSOP payouts taking up to 6 weeks if you take a cheque or transfer.

Well done again!

LOL. GET OUT MPOWER

Update: Have just sent the transfer from the forex company so I know the rate we're getting now (0.6454, vs 0.6461 on xe). Hopefully the transfer will arrive tomorrow and some/all of you will have your money by the end of the week.

Excellent tekkers on the exchange rate, wp

recvd, thanks very much.


would invest again.

Transfer came through today, checklist mainly for my benefit:

$38,453 = £24,817.57

luckyblind: 1% = £248.18 paid
tonytats: 2% = £496.36 paid
Boba fett: 3%-$650 =  $503.59 = £325.02 paid
neeko: 1% = £248.18 paid
pleno1: 2% = paid $769 stars
henrik777: 11% = £2729.93

Have got to go out now, will send the rest later, @Sandy yours might have to wait till tomorrow cos of transfer limits.

recvd, TY and WP

+1

Just paid yours Sandy, think that's everyone sorted, ty all for the backing.

Received thanks James

Call again :)

Cheers

Sandy

+1 :)