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Well, I think blonde needs a cycling thread, even if it's only me that is interested  :)

Cycling should have more mainstream media coverage than ever this year. Wiggins & Cavendish are two of the highest profile riders in the platoon, both British & outspoken!

Looking forward to Wiggins tormenting the European media! On & off the bike.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxWPdnjk3I8

Get involved, tips, betting, questions, feedback.

I’ll post thoughts & tips on betting, it should help to keep it all on one thread.

I am interested, more of a part time grand tour fan than anything.

That interview is hilarious.

good man Longy.

The Grand Tours will be incredible this year. Looking forward to see how Sky go about winning the Giro & the TDF.

Milan-Sanremo. March 17th.

The first of the five monuments (oldest). Generally known as the sprinters classic. Who can push the biggest gear the hardest & fastest?

(http://www.milansanremo.co.uk/2011/2011_MSR_Map.jpg)

(http://www.milansanremo.co.uk/2011/2011_MSR_Profile.jpg)

The race is generally decided on the final sections of the Cipressa & the Poggio.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQQswzDp4HU

Cavendish (OPQS) winner in 2009, starts as favourite (11/4). This will be his first big race with his new team, so will be motivated. Although recent years he has not had the early season form to compete in the final, suspect this year will be similar.


Fabian Cancellara (RadioShack). Winner in 2008, & 2nd in 2011 & 2012. One of the top classics riders of his generation, a consistent & strong performer. In a recent interview has stated that this season will be all about the classics, & not his normal training for the Time Trials in the big stage races. Currently available at 11/1. I would have expected him to be in the region of 6/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/milan-san-remo/winner

Incidentally the form guide for this race is generally to be found at Tirreno-Adriatico, held the week before.

Fan too, but so much more to learn, looking forward to your posts Tonji.

Hope this season will be as good as I expect. As a fan for over 20 years, each seasons seems to throw up drama of some sort or another!

Before the 2013 season kicks off with the Tour de San Luis in Argentina on Jan 21st & the Santos Tour Down Under on the 22nd.

How about some profiles of some of the riders, some famous, others less so.

Jens Voigt (RadioShack). Now the oldest rider in the peloton at 41. A rouleur (all-rounder), his career has been pretty much as a domestique, but his attacking style & commitment make him a fans favourite. A family man with loads of kids, worth a follow on twitter @thejensie for his eccentric tweets.

Some clips from you tube

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02tRJPE-YZI

As tough as they come

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfiBbZJTx9s

Opinion on Cavs new teams depth? Has he got a ride out man that can put him in position?

Been pondering that Nakor, as some talented sprinters in Greipel & Degenkolb are expected to give him a tough year.

The move to Omega Pharma-Quick Step is in many ways a perfect fit for Cavendish. He's teaming up with some of the riders & coaches from his days at HTC Highroad. He'll also be riding his preferred “Specialised” bikes.

First race of the season for him will be the Tour de San Luis in Argentina. Come the Tour I'm sure the lead out train will be firing on all cylinders as the first stage in Corsica is expected to be a sprint finish & Cavendish has never worn the yellow jersey.

Looking forward to this thread immensely.

Tonji - have you ever read "Golden Stages of the Tour de France" or any of the work of the late Antoine Blondin?

Hi Ed,

Never read it, do you recommend it?

For someone as keen on cycling as yourself? Yes.

Antoine Blondin used to write in L'Equipe - incredibly evocative pieces about the Tour. Not sure how your French is but there's a collection of his articles/work that goes under the name "Sur le Tour de France" that is an amazing read for a Tour fan.

http://www.amazon.fr/Sur-Tour-France-Antoine-Blondin/dp/2710307375/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&qid=1357649331&sr=8-4

Remind me what his "Specialised Bikes" are, please?

This thread should be a good read as the season develops, thanks.

Thanks Ed, will look out for that, although my french is rusty.

Hi tikay,

"Specialised" is just the brand name. Each team have a bike sponsor & riders will ride the team bikes. Cavendish has always had a preference for Specialised.

(http://velonews.competitor.com/files/2012/01/omega-pharma-bike.jpg)

Wow. Beats the "Raleigh Dawes" I used to have. Had Campag gears though, they were the nuts then.

(http://cycling-passion.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/joaquim-rodriguez-wins-vuelta-a-espana-2012-stage-14.jpg)

Joaquin ’Purito’ Rodriguez was the No.1 rider in 2012. His Russian team Katusha were refused a WorldTour licence to race in 2013 (a long & mysterious story, probably involving team financial irregularities & UCI politics).

It's possible that the top rated rider will be unable to compete in the 2013 Grand Tours. Rumours of a move to BMC or Argos-Shimano would mean he could race. However, the uncertainty & disruption to winter training will be telling. Big shame as I had him down as being one of a few riders who would be able to compete with Contador & Froome in the TDF.

Armstrong to appear on Oprah.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jan/09/lance-armstrong-oprah-winfrey-interview

Doubt if we will see a full a frank confession.

I'd prefer to see him in court under oath, & admit US Cycling and the UCI protected him.

Australian National Championship Mens Road Race. Sunday 13th January.

(http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTgJxQgHBJRRfBKuFN5Kzs4lxZ2jfdtCUAlpFKcvQru4lGy-SnGar4u7w5x)

Simon Gerrans is favourite. Based on being last years winner & he rides for Orica Green Edge, the strong Aussie team.

Eleven of the 15 Australians on Green Edge are entered in the 195.6-kilometre road race. Gerrans, Simon Clarke and Matthew Goss are considered the men most likely to have the condition to win it.

Quote from Gerrans in Aussie media:

''Of course we're going to race together. I think there's going to be five Garmin guys there, there's going to be three Sky guys, a couple of SaxoBank guys and, of course, there's a lot of GreenEDGE guys, and all the GreenEDGE guys want a GreenEDGE rider to be Australian champion. They'd be fools to think we're going to race against each other. The trade teams all work together in the national champions.''

Cameron Meyer also a GreenEdge rider won the Elite men's criterium on Thursday, so can be discounted now, as his job will be to ride for others now, I think.

Goss has been winter training in Europe. A late arrival Down Under has not been the best preparation & a DNF in the recent Jayco Herald Sun Tour showed he’s not up to speed yet.

Recent form from a week ago at the Jayco showed Simon Clarke to be in better shape than Gerrans. We missed some glorious value, his initial price was 25/1. Some Aussie shrewdies have shredded that & is now 8/1. Still worth a small interest, I think. £5.00 on Clarke.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/uci-world-tour/australian-national-championship-mens-road-race/winner

If a rider outside the GreenEdge team where to be in with a shout, my pick would be Rohan Dennis. A Garmin-Sharp rider, 2nd in National TT a few days ago, with a stellar U23 career. Can climb a bit, won the Mountains classification in last year Tour Down Under. May be a year or so too early for him but I’ve had another £5.00 on him at 16/1.

Hi JJ,

thanks for your thoughts.

I'm going to be opposing Cav, early season, at least until his new team OPQS, seem to be up to speed. My thinking is Cavendish will be riding stage races, including his main objective the TDF, for stage wins. Whilst Tom Boonen will be the teams main Classic rider this season. We'll see how it pans out & for sure they will be one of the strong teams.

Why are you off Cancellara?

Peter Sagan, agree. Probably the most talented allrounder in the peloton. Probably will be a classics winner this year, just think he may be more suited to Tour of Flanders of Amstel Gold Race. Certainly will be winning stage races. Won a load in 2012, will be more heavily marked this year. Exciting rider, looking forward to see how he performs.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/milan-san-remo/winner

Gilbert & Edvald, shorter priced than Cancellara.

Interesting, Gilbert will be motivated wear the Rainbow jersey. Boassen Hagen is leading the Sky Classics squad. He's certainly due a Classics win & Sky have specifically trained this winter with that as an objective.

Competitive year  :)

Thomas Voeckler? what an odd ball he is!

Don't think he rides in Milan-Sanremo. Normally in the Ardennes classics.

Strange one.

L’Equipe reports the Giro d’Italia will kick off in Belfast in 2014.

Vuelta 2013 route announced today.

Expected to be lots of up hill stuff, with 11 summit finishes.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sz2ICbFWKZM

The bets in the Aussie Nationals came to nought.

Next.

The Tour Down Under, starting on the 20th. :)

 

Meanwhile, a bit of a legend in Italy, Giuliano Calore descends the Stelvio with no hands!

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZV4MJok1_2o

One to watch in 2013.

(http://images.smh.com.au/2011/01/20/2143790/Michael%20Matthews-420x0.jpg)

Michael Matthews has made a timely switch from Rabbobank to Orica Green Edge. His performance in the Aussie Nationals, 2nd in the Road Race & a 3rd in the TT, shows he has stepped up a level. He's not made the team for the Tour Down Under, but will be a good bet in future stage races at World Tour level.

Armstrong Admits Doping, and Says He Will Testify

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/15/sports/cycling/lance-armstrong-admits-doping-and-says-he-will-testify-against-cycling-officials.html?ref=sports

"He is planning to testify against several powerful people in the sport of cycling who knew about his doping and possibly facilitated it, said several people with knowledge of the situation."

Anywhere in the Uk broadcasting the interview?

Discovery Channel. Also streamed live on Oprah.com.

Looks like the first major clash of top riders will be at the Tour of Oman, February 11th.

"The organisers of the Tour of Oman have confirmed that current Tour de France champion Bradley Wiggins (Sky), past Tour winners Alberto Contador (Team Saxo Tinkoff) and Cadel Evans (BMC Racing Team) plus current and former world champions Philippe Gilbert (BMC Racing Team), Fabian Cancellara (RadioShack Leopard), Mark Cavendish and Tom Boonen (both Omega Pharma Quick Step) will all take part in next month’s Tour of Oman."

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BArw6GTCMAE_NXc.jpg)

Jonathan Tiernan-Locke was a continental pro tour rider, but a fantastic year has given him the chance to step up to the world tour with Sky. I'm Looking forward to him racing.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wH35fcnT9JY

will be at 2am on Fri Jan 18 and Sat Jan 19. Sky 520/Virgin 212, & repeated 8pm both Fri & Sat.
 

2014 Tour de France – initial details:

Stage one: Leeds - Harewood - Otley - Ilkley - Skipton - Kettlewell - Aysgarth - Hawes - Reeth - Leyburn - Ripon – Harrogate

Stage two: York - Knaresborough - Silsden - Keighley - Haworth - Hebden Bridge - Elland - Huddersfield - Holmfirth - Sheffield

Stage three: Cambridge - Epping Forest - the Olympic Park - the Mall

(http://road.cc/sites/default/files/imagecache/preview_500/images/Tour%20de%20France%202014%20Yorkshire%20Grand%20Depart%20stage%20routes/Tour%20de%20France%202014%20Stage%201.jpg)

(http://road.cc/sites/default/files/imagecache/preview_500/images/Tour%20de%20France%202014%20Yorkshire%20Grand%20Depart%20stage%20routes/Tour%20de%20France%202014%20Stage%202.jpg)

(http://road.cc/sites/default/files/imagecache/preview_500/images/Tour%20de%20France%202014%20Yorkshire%20Grand%20Depart%20stage%20routes/2014%20Tour%20de%20France%20stage_3.jpg)

Cavendish talks about his Specialized bike (well they pay his wages!), his new OPQS team, & winning the Green jersey.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-uY6nqWQXw

I haven't followed the Armstrong story closely at all.

Now he's singing, is there any chance he'll get prosecuted like Marion Jones?

Just started watching this Armstrong interview! The guy is coming across as utter filth!

Shields up, lies on, and excusing behaviour! This could be a painful cringeworthy watch

I watched a bit of it, it was like a skinny Lederer Files.

He has no remorse!

He has actively ruined people's lives. He has destroyed people. He has no regret for that. It is very clear he is just gutted he got caught!

Only seen bits and bats on the way out, but seen snippets from SKy Sports app too of major things he has said.

One I wondered about and thought wtf?....

"I view this situation as one big lie that I repeated a lot of times. I know the truth - the truth isn't what was out there or what I said"

There is every chance his bank balance will be wiped out. He's being sued for millions.

Not sure if he will do any time in the Big House.

I guess all this finally coming clean now, is a course to avoid prosecution.

Not seen the first part of the interview yet. Anyone have a link to a free stream.

you tube

He promises to answer all the questions

They show  a clip of him giving testimony under oath, and he immediately refuses to answer any questions in respect of that point

Of course in part 2 of this are going to be "asked" to feel sorry for him, how its affected his family, life, future!

I cant stand these things. I sincerely hope that people dont fall for it, but seeing this filth ball as govenor of Texas in 10 years time would be no surprise!

He won't do time. Even if he gets sued it'll be for millions, when he has tens of millions in the bank.

He'll be alright.

I can imagine how he has ruined lives, particularly for people who should have been Tour De France champs, but are there any more direct specific examples how he has ruined lives? I'm a noob to Lance Armstrong stuff

Anyone who has even so much as criticised him, let alone levelled cheating against him, he has sued, ranging from a little massuse to national newspapers, and finally USADA. He has "discredited" many along the way.

In his interview, it is passed off as "bullying", well I guess thats one way to describe it. Im not sure it passess for bullying when you purposefully set out to ruin people. Sadly the interview (Part 1) is all about Lance. I sincerely hope she picks him up on the effect he has had on the people he crushed along the way

Indeed, Emma O'Reilly (massuse), Frankie & Betsy Andreu (former close friends), Christophe Bassons (former rider), Paul Kimmage (journalist) all spoke out against Armstrong. All were bullied & lives ruined by him. But to their credit never gave up, & with the help of Sunday Times journalist David Walsh were finally vindicated.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-21072776

Funny construct all this.

Don't have much sympathy for the people 'whose lives he ruined' - they chose to get in the ring. Coulda looked the other way like the whole sport did for years.

Also, pretty lol to feel sorry for all the incredibly 'clean' cyclists who couldn't win the TdF cause Armstrong was cheating. I've researched this thoroughly and can reveal that 98.3% of TdF cyclists were drug cheats in the period when Armstrong won it all

Only seen part one, yes he will make a good politician! He should of held his hand up and copped the lot, not look to turn things round. He has lived a lie for soo long it's difficult for him to distinguish between what lies he still believes and what he can cling on to.

I often say it is a bigger and better man to admit to his mistakes than the one who hides  behind these, Lance shows he is a very small boy. Now for part 2.

No point being vindicated when your life is ruined IMO

Armstrong comes across as somebody totally devoid of morality to me. The extent of his cheating and lies boggles my mind. I remember attending seminars with work about success and achievement where we were encouraged to be like Lance Armstrong in pursuit of our goals. Er, no thanks. The serious point is he wasn't just a cyclist, he was somebody who epitomised human spirit and endeavour to a lot of people. Those associations only intensified after his cancer battle and all that livestrong bollocks. So he had a lot of responsibility to preserve the integrity of these great human qualities, but just pissed that away to cheat and lie instead.

I used to love sport and look up to sporting heroes. I don't know what to make of sport these days because everybody seems to be cheating or match fixing or conning somebody. Anybody who looked up to Lance Armstrong and found him an inspiration has been the victim of a hoax and I don't think his explanations serve much purpose in repairing that damage.

Value alert.

Tour Down Under market has just been made. Hills go Gilbert 20/1. I'd have made him second fav around 6/1- 7/1

http://www.oddschecker.com//cycling/tour-down-under/winner

Hopefully find some time over the weekend to look closer at the race & betting market.

Is the value not with EBH at 8's?

depends on what price you make him.

Before the market went live, I'd have him priced in the same region as Gilbert, so not value in my book.

The TDF is passing through my village, will nobble riders for cash  :D

TOUR DOWN UNDER 2013. 20-27 January.


(http://i1101.photobucket.com/albums/g434/Roturn1988/Tdu.jpg)

(http://wwos.ninemsn.com.au/img/2012/cycling/tdu/stages/TDU13_overall_Map.jpg)

The first World Tour stage race of the season, & consequently difficult to predict any form.  Overall this race looks to favour the puncheurs (Classics type riders) for the overall. Stages 1, 4, and 6 for the sprinters. Weather can be a big factor with temperatures in the 40s, but forecasts seem to be in the low 30s in Adelaide next week.

Looking at the teams sent, three stand out.

http://www.tourdownunder.com.au/start-list.htm

Orica GreenEdge. Gerrans, last years winner, will be the GC rider. Matt Goss the sprinter. The Aussie team & riders are in form after the Jayco Tour & Nationals. An Aussie has won the TDU 8 times out of 14 editions. Gerrans was disappointing in the Nationals, but his goal is perhaps the TDU.

BMC look to have sent a team full of domestiques purely to support Philippe Gilbert, the current Rainbow jersey (World champ). Although the Sprint Classics are his main motivation, this TDU seems to be an opportunity for him, especially as reports from his winter training have been positive. Stage 2 looks made for him, if he can attack on the last steep climb & descend well, valuable seconds can be gained. It’s possible that this is the selective stage, if not Stage 5 will certainly be the key stage. This also looks to have characteristics to suit Gilbert. At 151.5km, it's the longest stage of the race and features a 3.1 kilometre climb to the finish.

Interestingly Sky have sent their Classics group of riders, headed by Edvald Boasson Hagen. One of Sky’s aims for the year is to win a one day Classic. Are they using this race as part of the early season training? I doubt it, it’s not part of Sky’s ethos, they are there to win. 7th last year, if EBH has found some early season form he’ll be in on the podium at least.

Suspect the podium will comprise the above, with perhaps a sprinter like Greipel nipping into the top 5 if his team can get him over the lumpy stuff.

The sprints should be dominated by Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol), with Marcel Kittel (Argos-Shimano), also in the mix.

Outsiders & ones to watch. Tiago Machado (Radioshack), 3rd last year, aggressive rider, but tactically naive. Rohan Dennis (Garmin-Sharp), a young Aussie on a US team, 5th last year, & should feature at some stage. Peter Velits (OPQS), an all-rounder, with a strong team.

http://www.oddschecker.com//cycling/tour-down-under/winner

The 20/1 for Gilbert is long gone.

I notice Andy Schleck is priced between 25 & 100/1, reflecting his unknown form after last years injury hit season. He’s expected to slowly build this season towards the TDF, we‘ll see.

Live coverage & highlights on Sky.

Santos Tour Down Under kicked off with the criterium (People's Choice Classic) on Sunday, but while it is part of the broader event, it isn't actually part of the Tour Down Under itself. Stage 1 is on Tuesday.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5oyGeCc1dM

Cavendish kicks off his season on Monday in the Tour de San Luis, Argentina. Plenty of big names joining him, Contador, Nibali, Sagan, Chavanel, Van Garderen, Hushovd, Rodriguez, & Van den Broeck.

No betting market for this low key event, but will be good info on form & team strengths.

Some comments from Gilbert after the People's Choice Classic.

“The feeling was good. That's the most important news of the day. I think the legs are good and I'm really confident,”

& from the Directeur sportif

“They did a good job of training during the week and they're ready for the race. Phil is motivated and we'll surround him and hope for a good result."

News that Contador is planning a Giro & TDF double.

That'll please Sky & Wiggins  ::)

Didn't he do this 2011 and was shot by the TDF came round?

Was it 2011? the year he crashed in one of the early stages? & never really recovered. I'm not sure, but remember Contador won the Giro in 2011.

I think maybe alot of the talk will be mind games to try & put Sky & Wiggins on the back foot before any of the Grand Tours start.

Looks like Sky will be behind Geraint Thomas in the TDU, a few rumours were around this morning, but looks to be confirmed by Ian Stannard in this interview.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoGMLNA5c1c

I guess EBH has not been performing well in the heat, he does seem a bit chubby  :)

Thomas available in few spots at 50/1. Has a good engine, but questionable on the hills. I'd rate him as top 5 if the team was all strong, but suspect after the People Choice Classic, the group is a bit off.

Stage 1 markets are out. Greipel a short priced fav. A few thoughts later if time permits.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-down-under/tour-down-under-stage-1/winner

TDU Stage 1.

http://www.tourdownunder.com.au/documents/2013-stage-1.pdf

A lumpy stage, with plenty of opportunities to attack. However Greipel's Lotto-Belisol & the other sprint teams will be keen to control it for a bunch sprint.

A slightly up hill finish straight is no problem for Greipel, the only world class sprinter in the field.

Early season is a fine time for some emerging young guns to spring surprises. Look out for Boy van Poppel (Vacansoleil-DCM), impressed at the Tour of Britain. The brit Andy Fenn (OPQS), a neo pro on the World Tour, expecting some good rides from him in the future.

Cavendish takes the win in Tour de San Luis Stage 1.  :)

(http://d3j5vwomefv46c.cloudfront.net/photos/large/720880733.jpg?key=650376&Expires=1358809516&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIYVGSUJFNRFZBBTA&Signature=TBmbxkzcNIXzKdYYasd9i0e273j~z2hahQIMrfiupPOXq6NdW9CEUj6jxbvlNiMh0MnRcgZi~09pGLiE2VStWkfCw2Bw7e3-B5E8BcOR9HB75grodJWdwJmTXctg1KKXRl64PdTKtjy992e9DRvIZ~KZSrrHRyzn7CbowVl7whI_)

TDU. stage 1.

Greipel wins easily. Gerrans & Gilbert showed their intentions for GC by going for time bonuses.

Currently working my way through the Tyler Hamilton book, quite amazing to somebody with not much knowledge at all of this sport.

Two questions for you aficionados, is the sport mostly clean now in your opinions and what's the best way for me to become a fan, it seems like a sport that appeals to me with all the tactical nuances but i can't just sit there watching geezers pedal for hours without understanding the tactics.

hey flushy, hope your recovering well.

imo, cycling still has problems. The UCI still faces so many questions, re corruption, political power struggles. Until there is a change at the UCI its difficult to move on from the Armstrong era.

If I was to make a guess (it can only be a guess, who really knows?) I'd say it's 90-95% clean. Cycling is the most tested sport. It has a blood passport system. Riders also have the "hour a day" system, for random testing. They must be available on the hour notified to the testing authorities, 365 days a year. The young generation in the peloton, are not afraid to speak out against doping, big change there.

Watch the Grand Tours, flushy. Drama unfolding over 3 weeks. You'll pick up the tactics, as it unfolds.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JtU0zrLtHk

I like these vids, a back stage view of the stage from the Aussies Orica GreenEdge

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_qNjHSO6Pc

Would say it's the cleanest I have ever known it, how clean that is is anyones guess, but testing better now than has ever been. Sky have been massive in this change imo. Done more in a couple of years in the sport then other teams combined. Their contracts on being clean etc are the way to go. Wasn't the least suprised by any of the people who have left or 'retired' from the sport since Sky brought them in.

Best way to get into it imo would be to watch the coverage of the tours from start to finish, just the hourly highlights shows are fine to start with. ITV and Eurosport showed a lot of coverage of the circuit last season. Most also show the last hour or so of a stage, where all the tactics, chase downs, sprint assembles takes place

TDU Stage 2.

http://www.tourdownunder.com.au/documents/2013-stage-2.pdf

The last 20km will be the selection. Up Corkscrew Road, nearly a 4km climb with up to 10% gradient. 7km descent to finish.

Interested to see if Sky with EBH & Thomas attack as a team here, to try & nullify the expected attack of Gilbert & Gerrans.

Over the top it looks possible for a rider to solo for victory on the descent. I’m expecting Gilbert to try this & win.

If a group of 10 or so make it over together, this brings opportunities for some EW betting. I’ve gone small EW Simone Ponzi (Astana) @ 20/1. Peter Velits (OPQS) @ 33/1. Both showed yesterday they are in good shape, finishing well up in the bunch.

Awesome ride and victory by Thomas for sky today. Looked very strong on both the last climb and the finish

Just read the twitter commentary, sounds a great ride by G.

Highlights later, I hope.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGGRRBr6zZM

Pre the stage, G was available for the overall at between 30 & 40!

His price also in the Tour of Flanders has gone from 66/1 to 12/1.

You spotted any value for stage 4 Tonji? or is Griepel the value even at his price?

Just back from a business trip, been missing all the action Down Under.

Griepel was the value, cruised the sprint finish.
Cracking finish to stage 5, catch the highlights

Tom Jelte Slagter (Blanco Pro) won the Tour Down Under.

Daniel Diaz (Somos Todos) won the Tour de San Luis.

Frankly, both had never crossed my radar. Interestingly both are 23. Signs that young riders can get results are good for the sport, but tricky for the punter.

Slagter looked good in that 5th stage down under, both performance and the tactics in the last few k

Caught up with the highlights, good win for Blanco, especially outfoxing Sky.

Greipel & his lead-out train were top notch, no one was even close. Will be interesting when Greipel & Cavendish race, but maybe have to wait until the TDF.

Still riding JJ?

What level were you riding at?

Sounds like you could have been a contender, but just unlucky to have been born a generation too early. Great opportunities now for talented GB riders.

The daily chores of a domestique in the Tour de San Luis

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxpHnflzxfM

Tour Of Qatar. Feb 3-8

(http://www1.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Tour+of+Qatar+J6Qb2_ajiERl.jpg)

http://www.letour.com/indexTQA_us.html

Hot & windy, this race has become an important preparation for the Spring Classics in Belgium.

Tom Boonen (OPQS), 4 times winner will not be riding due to an elbow injury. His replacement is Zdenek Stybar, double World Cyclo-cross champion. Cavendish will lead the team. The team has vast experience in this race, riding echelons in the cross winds, & should give them a clear advantage in riding for the general classification.

(http://cyclingweekly.media.ipcdigital.co.uk/11141/000006d3c/7c84_orh315w315/toq12st4-windy.jpg)

Unconfirmed start list here: http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/117690022-Tour-of-Qatar-2013-Startlist

You spotted any pre race value???

No markets up yet, that I could see. But a few thoughts in the next few days on a couple of riders I hope will have long odds, with possible EW opportunities (I like them), if time permits.

The race consists of 5 flat stages that will likely end up in a bunch sprint. However, teams & riders can get decimated with the cross winds, so only the strongest survive.  Stage 2 breaks up the race with a 14km team time trial, long enough to shake up the overall classification, but not long enough to give the winning team an unbeatable time advantage.

Stage wins and time bonuses are important to winning the overall. A stage win nets 10, 6 & then 4 seconds, while 3, 2 and 1 second are on offer at intermediate sprints.

Boonen’s absence has given Cavendish a GC opportunity. He will be keen to make an early impression on his new team mates. If he can avoid the puncture lottery and steer clear of any bad luck, then there is no reason why he can’t win 2 or 3 stages & take the overall. However a lot will depend upon his team mates. Cav will need to be sheltered from the desert winds if he is to influence the make up of the podium. I have my doubts on the early season strength of OPQS to ride echelons & bring Cav to the last few kms. Incidentally Cavs twitter suggests he is feeling the effects of travelling Argentina-Italy-Qatar in the past 3 days.

I think the winner maybe a durable sprinter, who can get some bonus seconds and never lose out in the crosswinds.

John Degenkolb (Argos-Shimano), impressed in the 2012 Vuelta with 5 stage wins. The team has just stepped up to the WorldTour level this year & will be looking to claim points early in the season. 

Daniele Bennati (Saxo-Tinkoff). 3rd in 2011.

Heinrich Haussler (IAM Cycling). In a new team the Ex-Garmin rider was 2nd in 2011.

EBH (Sky).  His form needs to be up a gear from what was seen in TDU. On paper one of the strongest teams in the race, but form looked patchy in TDU. I’ve lost a far few bob backing EBH over the past few years, the expected results have not materialised.


Another angle is to look at, is riders in the Boonen mould, strong Classics riders.

Fabian Cancellara (RadioShack). A previous stage winner here, & 7th last year. Strong team that will be one to watch in the stage 2 TTT. If the winds blows he may be able to give the sprint teams the slip to podium.

Taylor Phinney (BMC). A young rider, I expect to win some major one day classics in the next few years. Has ridden Qatar three times. Some solid experience in the team with Greg Van Avermaet, should give him the opportunity to use his time trialling ability to nick a stage. Reports of top quality winter training, & raring to go.

Juan Antonio Flecha (Vacansoleil-DCM). Could be the surprise of the race, although it shouldn’t be. Left Sky last year, with the goal to pursue personal ambitions that were not available working essentially as a super domestique. Has ridden Qatar four times, with a third & fourth overall. Now 35, but still one of the toughest riders in the peloton.

Will be offline later this afternoon & evening  & have not seen any markets on odds checker. If I can get John Degenkolb & Taylor Phinney EW at around 20/1, that’s where my money will go.

If surprises are in order, keep an eye out for the Italian, Elia Viviani (Cannondale). Only 23, a world class track rider, he can mix it up with the sprinters.

Not had a look at the traditionals yet but betfair market got very little value in it. Only bennati at a half decent price

Viviani not even listed on betfair market yet so might be able to find a good price for him.

I'm gonna look at laying a few of the betfair market, prices too skinny to back

Edit:
Oddschecker has laddies giving 20/1 on phinney
                       laddies & bet365 give 100/1 on viviani

I think 365 & Skybet had some odds up briefly yesterday, but missed all, so no idea if any value was anywhere.

Anyhow stage 1, now live on Al Jazeera  ::)

http://www.en.aljazeerasport.tv/Live/channel/global

Looks as if the peloton has split into groups in the cross winds. Cav in a group behind. Degenkolb & Phinney in lead group.

Peloton regrouped & chased down a 3 man break, catching them on the line. No big time gaps between the favourites.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQfEk-yJ7W4

BMC are a good shout for tomorrows TTT.

One of the unluckiest riders in bike racing, Johnny Hoogerland was hit by a car in training today. In the 2011 TDF he was hit by a team car.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cO6YWws_K-o

For those at a loose end, the TTT is underway. Tricky windy conditions.

English commentary http://sports-livez.com/channel/ch-5.php

BMC win beating Sky by 5 seconds.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZkiwkuyQILw

GC after stage 2.

1 Brent Bookwalter (USA) BMC Racing Team 3:44:44
2 Taylor Phinney (USA) BMC Racing Team 0:00:06
3 Adam Blythe (GBr) BMC Racing Team 0:00:10
4 Greg Van Avermaet (Bel) BMC Racing Team
5 Michael Schär (Swi) BMC Racing Team
6 Bernhard Eisel (Aut) Sky Procycling 0:00:11
7 Edvald Boasson Hagen (Nor) Sky Procycling 0:00:15
8 Geraint Thomas (GBr) Sky Procycling
9 Mathew Hayman (Aus) Sky Procycling
10 Luke Rowe (GBr) Sky Procycling
11 Mark Cavendish (GBr) Omega Pharma-Quick-Step Cycling Team 0:00:20

Stage 3. 143 km.

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-01/Tour-of-Qatar-Stage-3-1358337028.jpg)

Wind report is stronger for Tuesday, then lessening the rest of the week.

The overall is a battle between BMC & Sky, with OPQS trying to get Cav into the final sprints, but with only 3 stages to go he will have to win 2 of the 3 to stand a chance in the overall. BMC look stronger than Sky, so will be looking to control the race. Easier said than done, with time bonuses along the route.

This stage may well be the only opportunity for a breakaway to succeed. The lesser teams will be looking to attack. After watching the TTT, FDJ was a team that impressed, particularly Yoann Offredo. He has ridden Qatar twice before, with strong finishes in the overall. A strong Classics rider, 7th in Milan-Sanremo 2011. 42 seconds down in the overall, he may not be considered a threat to the GC teams, & allowed to escape in a breakaway group. I got 250 EW with PP, a banzai for sure but I kinda like it  :)

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgFR8d1j570

Cav too good. But can he win GC?

Cav wins stage 4 in Qatar, he makes it look so easy. In a class of his own. He now has a 2 second lead in GC.

Wiggins apparently abandons in Mallorca Challenge race.

Tour Mediterraneen kicks off, with Voeckler, Schleck, Hushovd, Greipel, Kreder, Martin, Talansky, Roche, Kreuziger, Rogers, Boom, Sicard, Cousin, Peraud, Fedrigo, Pinot, Roux et al.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhCL9EG6d_k

2 stages left, no wind forecast, Cav is odds on to win the overall. Although the top ten is packed with BMC & Sky riders from 2 to 17 seconds down, it could still be interesting.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IwC2JqDJFlE

Ahead of the season opener for GT GC riders at Oman. Chris Froome talks about the TDF & Armstong.

No prizes for guessing the stage 5 winner.

BMC & Sky made a vain attempt at a breakaway 20km out. OPQS lead-out train worked for the first time this season.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tx7PXnSrJbs

Final stage tomorrow, can Cav make it 4 in a row? odds on. He's now approaching 100 pro wins.

Last 20 km of the final stage live now

http://sports-livez.com/channel/ch-5.php

BMC & Phinney have ridden well, nicking some bonus sprints against Sky, & should now make the podium.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtTcVF5he5M

Next...


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BClS6U6CEAAy-tB.jpg:large)

as endorsed by Charlie Watts!

What a finish from Cav

That weight loss last year cost him a bit in the sprints but boy is he back on it this year.

You know Cav is in form when he doesn't use/need the train and just tears apart the finish.

Agree, world class bike handler. He seems to disappear in those frantic & chaotic sprints, only to appear at the correct moment. No one is better at jumping on the correct wheels & staying out of the wind.

defo, had to watch the highlights 3 times last night just to see where he came from out of that bunch sprint!!

Probably the best blog I've read on how cycling can move on from Armstrong & doping. Giving the young riders who are clean the chance to have a career in bike racing.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/blogs/jonathan-vaughters/opinion-its-not-all-about-lance-armstrong-and-heres-how-we-can-fight-doping

By Jonathan Vaughters, Garmin-Sharp pro cycling team manager.

Tour of Oman. 11-16 Feb.

http://www.tourofoman.om/index.html

Unlike Qatar it has mountains.

(http://www.grassyknolltv.com/2011/tour-of-oman/4-RTR2IS4A-640.jpg)

Generally a preparation race for the teams with ambitions in the Grand Tours.

The Route: http://www.letour.fr/2013/TOO/COURSE/docs/parcours.pdf

Stage Four up the Jabal al Akhdhar (also known as the green mountain).  A fearsome climb (5.8 km at an average gradient of 10.3%), the winner is likely to go on to claim GC.

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-02/Tour-of-Oman-Stage-4-1360345704.jpg)

Full team line ups have not been confirmed. But some big names will be present.

Sky: Froome & Wiggins. Froome is said to be the leader.

Saxo-Tinkoff: Contador.

BMC: Cadel Evans. His first race of the season.

Cannondale: Sagan.

Astana. Nibali.

Katusha: Rodriguez.

OPQS: Boonen. With last years winner Peter Velits.

Not seen any prices up on odds checker yet, but a few thoughts on betting.

Contador. A stage winner & 4th in GC in Argentina last month despite being overweight. With a strong Saxobank line-up. Should be strong favourite 3/1 or less.

Sagan. From Cannondale website “My first goal is to improve my conditioning,” he said, then made it clear that a victory is also on his agenda. “I had a positive debut in Argentina; it’s a shame that I was only close to winning. In Oman, I’ll find stages suited to me and, most importantly, warm weather. The first important event of my season will arrive in one month: I want to face it with strong condition and high morale. This is why taking a win here is ideal.” Showed well in San Luis. Should be strong in the sprints, but will need to be on climbing form for Stage 4. 2nd or 3rd Favourite, at around 7/1.

Froome. First race of the season, so difficult to assess form. Wiggins has said he’ll use the race as training for the Giro, & his a little heavy to cover any attacks. For the rest of the team, it’s also the first outing of the season. Except Richie Porte who was in pretty good shape in Australia. Again 2nd or 3rd Favourite, at around 7/1.

I'm a bit concerned that this race is being used by many of the favourites as a training exercise for more important races later in the season. I'm looking at a couple of riders that could have the potential & the legs to spring a surprise for the overall win. More tomorrow after the markets are online.

Busy week ahead, so updates may be infrequent.

ToO started an hour ago.

Overall decided I can't go against Contador, but took a small flyer EW on Tony Gallopin, (Radioshack). A solid sprinter who can also compete in the hills. A good 3rd last year at Oman. Has raced already at Qatar, a respectable 13th. I suspect that he has this race pencilled in as a great opportunity.

Also pondered Richie Porte EW, but dithered!

Stage 1. Goss (OGE) had a touch of value.

Ok off to pick up, 2000 photographs from Auction!

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1QMuNFtwgY

huh! Kettel & Argos-Shimano were pants in TDU, I guess some days the legs return & start spinning.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QrlXA6jOVE

Gallopin 2nd in GC, 9 seconds behind Sagan. At least my thoughts on Gallopin going for overall is correct, whatever the result from here on in.

Expecting Sagan to win on stage 3, but struggle & loose time on the crucial 4th stage.

Gallopin's tactics will be to hang on to Contador's wheel (11 seconds back) on the Green Mountain & overtake Sagan into the red jersey. We'll see on Thursday.

1. Peter Sagan (Svk) Cannondale Pro Cycling. 3:48:36

2. Tony Gallopin (Fra) RadioShack Leopard. 0:00:05

3. Martin Elmiger (Swi) IAM Cycling

4. Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Astana Pro Team

5. Zdenek Stybar (Cze) Omega Pharma-Quick Step. 0:00:07

6. Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky Procycling

29. Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Team Saxo-Tinkoff. 0.00:11

Actually a lot tighter than I first thought. Contador should still be strong Favourite with Nibali not far behind.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A3uOL_8wxw

Crucial stage tomorrow

(http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TOO/2013/400/PROFILVIGNETTE.jpg)

(http://inrng.com/medias/images/jebelakhdarprofile.jpg)

Hard to see past Contador for this stage. I expect Froome, Nibali, & Nocentini will be battling behind.

Gallopin has 16 seconds on Contador, it will be difficult to hold that. Still with a good chance of top 3 though.

Volta ao Algarve starts tomorrow. Only a 4 day race this year.

Cavendish starts, looking for a couple of sprint stage wins, should be a walk in the park. His team mate Tony Martin is odds on to win overall. A final stage 35 km TT, should seal victory for him.

(http://img.skysports.com/12/02/640/Algarvegeneric_2718445.jpg)

Good taster tomorrow of Froome's form compared to Contador.
Very impressed with Sagan's form defo improved from last season and looks the real deal.
lining up to be a cracking season in the majors for the sprinters.

An epic battle on the Mountain stage today I gather from twitter reports.

Have you seen the result?

I'll put a video up of the Eurosport highlights later/tomorrow when it becomes available.

Just seen result but no video, WOW in short

Indeed, wow  :) didn't see that finishing order for sure.

Hope to find a decent highlight package of the stage later

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecJRZeyCg2o

Yesterday, stage 4.

Today's stage was also a cracker!

A banzai for the final stage 6 tomorrow.

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-02/Tour-of-Oman-Stage-6-1360345719.jpg)

Likelyhood is the peloton will be fairly relaxed & looking for an easy ride to a bunch sprint finish. Where Kittel & Bouhanni are favourites.

But, the last 5 km

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-02/Tour-of-Oman-Stage-6-1360345790.png)

has a short kick-up 4 km from the finish. An ideal launch for riders like Boonen & Phinney to us their strength to time trial away from the field. Both are no threat to the overall, so Sky will not be concerned. If that does not happen both are in with a shout in a bunch sprint having been 5th & 6th in the 1st stage sprint.

Boonen available at 25/1, Phinney at 50/1. Banzai with EW value.

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad is the first Flanders classic of the year, 23rd Feb.

I really like one rider for this, he's not Belgian! Not sure if I'll be able to get a bet on...

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BieXRXFgvCU

Stage 5.

Froome needs to loose a few more Kg if he wants to win the the TDF!

Stage 6.

1. Nacer Bouhanni (Fra) FDJ
2. Matt Goss (Aus) Orica-GreenEdge
3. Taylor Phinney (USA) BMC Racing Team
4. Elia Viviani (Ita) Cannondale Pro Cycling
5. Borut Božič (Slo) Team Astana
6. Daryl Impey (RSA) Orica-GreenEdge
7. Tom Boonen (Bel) Omega Pharma-Quick Step
8. Danny van Poppel (Ned) Vacansoleil-DCM
9. Blaz Jarc (Slo) Team NetApp-Endura
10. Marco Coledan (Ita) Bardiani Valvole-CSF Inox

Phinney gets the EW bet home  :)

Yesterdays 6th & final stage.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pveRvQZq6Y

a bit of promotion for the Oman tourist board!

Top result for Froome, winning GC, bodes well for his TDF ambition.

Surprised at how well Cadel Evans performed. At 36 I'd kind of written him off. It's possible he'll still be a force come July.

Tony Martin smashes the TT, over 1 minute ahead of the next rider & takes the GC. OPQS raking up WorldTour points early.

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. Saturday 23rd Feb.

The first of the Flanders classic of the season. Riders return from Oman & Portugal to the wind, rain & occasional snow of Belgium. A race for the hard men of the peloton.

Leaves Ghent & some 5 hours later returns to Ghent, with plenty of bodies left in the gutters on the way.

(http://1.nieuwsbladcdn.be/Assets/Images_Upload/2012/02/25/omloopfoto.jpg)


(http://www.wielerzone.be/images/blogpost/2013/02/parcours_omloop_het_nieuwsblad_2013.png)


(http://www.wielerzone.be/images/blogpost/2013/02/profiel_omloop_het_nieuwsblad_2013-1024x391.png)

I'll do a preview of some of the contenders of this race, but also ones who will be in frame over the coming weeks.

(http://cdn2.media.cyclingnews.futurecdn.net//2013/02/07/1/pic345279203_670.jpg)

Lars Boom. (Blanco). The Dutch cyclo-cross champion for many year. Blanco's strong start to the year continued with Boom, a stage winner a few days ago at Haut Var-matin, so early season form is good. His race programme will see him ride nearly all the Spring classics, with the prime ambition of Paris-Roubaix in April.

Age 27 he’s in his prime now to get some big results. I’d expect him to be in the final group with 20km to go. Top 5 finish if he does not crash! (that’s him in the gutter in the previous post).

(http://www.sepvanmarcke.be/images/2013/sep.png)

Sep Vanmarcke. Boom’s team mate on the Blanco squad. A fierce attacking rider on his day he won Omloop last year out sprinting Tom Boonen. Form is unknown with an average performance in the Agarve. But he’s Belgian & looking to defend his title.

A cool short video of Vanmarcke last year

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wm4Csx74JG8

Awesome reports for the last few days, cheers Tonji.

Have you spotted any longer range value?, most of the form boys still doing it this season with the exception of Wiggo.

Thanks vegas.

Value long range? Giro & TDF etc I assume you mean.

Personally I rarely have a long range ante post bet, but I have some exceptions (more later).

Form & injury can change expectations radically. Add in the fact that teams never confirm selections til close to race day. I also think the betting firms will often price up on previous results, with form a secondary consideration. I prefer to have more info than the bookies & select bets late on.

Re Wiggo, I don't read anything into his current form. His race programme in April will be the guide to his chance in the Giro.

(http://1.nieuwsbladcdn.be/Assets/Images_Upload/2012/09/27/C10_GBC3V4NTF010C10Roelandts01.jpg.h380.jpg.568.jpg)

Lotto-Belisol have a strong team packed with Belgians. Jurgen Roelandts will be the likely leader on the road. Recent form is good with a stage win at Tour Méditerranéen. Three previous appearances in Omloop, with a best of 9th.  Last year was disrupted by injuries, but at 27 he now has the maturity to breakthrough with some major results.

Interviews are positive.
“I am very motivated, I have trained and I've done everything to be good,” … "There are few opportunities in the spring, so I hope that everything will now fall in place. If I don't have a bad day or bad luck, I will be there in the final.”

(http://ambijans.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/47fa2f0477a24filippo_pozzato.jpg)

Another rider in form is the 31 year old Italian Filippo Pozzato. Leader of the all Italian team Lampre. Certainly experienced with 5 visits to Omloop, & a best of 6th place. Forecast for race day is 2 degrees. Italians stereotypically hate the cold, let alone ones who wear bandannas  ::)

Omloop will be the first high profile race for the new South African Pro Continental Team MTN Qhubeka.

A team with a difference. Part of the aim is a charitable project in Africa, bikes for kids.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xp0y1568zLI

The in form BMC team have selected a strong line up, with options for leaders.

A previous winner here, the experienced Thor Hushovd is returning after a injury hit 2012. Reports seem to indicate he may have a watching brief, & if he has the legs be given the green light for the win. He has his sights more firmly set on Paris-Roubaix later in April.

My favourite rider at the moment is Taylor Phinney. Still only 22, but big things expected of him. He’ll likely be asked to chase down breaks, but if can find himself in the final selection a top three is possible.

Likely leader will be the Belgian Greg Van Avermaet. An impressive 2012, with a top six in Flanders, Het Nieuwsblad, the Strada Bianche and Brabantse Pijl. He looked strong in Qatar & Oman. Due a big win this season imo.

(http://www.bmcracingteam.com/typo3temp/pics/6f7b73d391.jpg)

The latest from Vanmarcke:

“I hope so. My most important goals are Harelbeke, Flanders and Roubaix and hopefully everyone will be in a good condition for Omloop [Het Nieuwsblad]. I feel like I’m in good shape, but I don’t know if I’m good enough to go for the win there. I think I will be able to fight for the win. I will be good enough for that, but I don’t know if I’ll be good enough for the win. It will depend on how you are on the day. We’ll see.”

Update on the weather for Saturday is 2 degrees, with a -5 wind chill. With a NE wind, meaning heading back to Ghent will be a head wind making the chances of breakaways succeeding less likely.

The Belgian OPQS team is arguably the strongest. With the classics legend Boonen being not 100% the leader option is likely to be with Niki Terpstra. Although I think the form rider is Zdenek Stybar, a good outside bet for a podium.

Here is OPQS team on a recon of the course. A big deal for Belgium TV!

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOZgyO4qHB0

Sunday sees the Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne & the first showdown between Cavendish & Greipel.

Unibet seem to be the only bookie offering a market:

Cav 2.85
Greipel 3.25

Weather predictions are cold with a chance of snow! Greipel & his lead-out train may have the edge this early in the season.

Live on Eurosport2 at 2.15

Tonji, thank you for all your posts, I am loving cycling even more and enjoying your insights.

Here for the ride  ;)

Cheers Craig

I think this season may just be the best!

Friends in Belgium are buzzing with the Omloop & KBK weekend ahead.

Final thoughts on Omloop bets later today. Overslept this morning  :)

(http://www.wielerzone.be/images/blogpost/2012/11/beklimming_berendries_omloop_nieuwsblad.jpg)

Omloop: Cobbles, beer & frites, that’ll be Flanders this weekend.

All week I had Lars boom in my mind ahead of Jurgen Roelandts. But conditions & the quality field have reversed that. The probability of a final selection of 10 or so riders competing in the last 20km lead me to the belief that Roelandts will have the better sprint. It also it helps if you're Belgian, 53 out of 64 winners have been home boys.

I got 12.00 yesterday with Unibet, but is now 9.00. Also available at Sportingbet. Boom is the same price.

“Only the Warriors or lucky survive” I’ve also had a small punt on 2 lucky warriors Zdenek Stybar & Taylor Phinney, the two riders with strength & form. Both at 35.00.

Live on Belgian TV. Usually a stream is available. I’ll post a link tomorrow when I find it.

Looking ahead to next weekend on the 2nd March we have

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4SPHdKLrMg

Strade Bianche a beautiful race held in part on the "white roads" of Tuscany around Siena.

Cancellara ftw.

Paris-Nice 3-10 March.

Tirreno-Adriatico (The Race of the Two Seas) 6-12 March. Used as a preparation for the first Monument of the year, La Primavera - Milan-Sanremo on 17th.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BDyELquCIAA3Bkv.jpg:large)

Cold start in Ghent. Live on Sporza after 1pm.

First hour completed at over 46km/hr, real fast! staying warm!

First crash of the day & a Lotto-Belisol rider abandons  :(

http://88.80.5.88/c4b00/20130222/vv51277bb0e2068021069847-529599.html

live in francais! Sporza streams are slow

elite group forming with 40km to go, all favourites seem to be there.

Chavanel attacking, chasing group with Roelandts 20' back

Group of 10 riders now off the front by nearly 2 mins. Roelandts among them, along with Thomas, Van Avermaet. Winner in that 10.

Vandenbergh & Paolini open a 20' gap over the other 8, they don't fancy the sprint. 20km to go

Luca Paolini wins a two up sprint.

Roelandts was 8th  :(

Cancelled.

A pretty good overview of the race.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hNDYjUfkg0

Some behind the scenes with OPQS.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7-iX3MNoOk

Geraint Thomas had a really strong 4th place despite crashing at 70km. Looking like he may be good for the Tour of Flanders.

Roelandts 8th was good considering his cornea froze in his eyeball in the last 10km.

Strade Bianche. Saturday 2nd March.

(http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/StradeBianche/2011/it/jquery-lightbox-0.5/photos/2012/img/11.jpg)

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4SPHdKLrMg

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-02/Strade-Bianche-1361891379.jpg)

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-01/Strade-Bianche-1359385253.jpg)

The previous weeks in that area of Tuscany have been wet. The wet white roads can be particularly unpleasant & tough. However the forecast is dry & sunshine all week, with Saturday a sunny 13. The parcours condition will be a big factor.

Sagan & Cancellara are likely favourites, followed by Valverde.

(http://velonews.competitor.com/files/2012/03/WATSON_00002864-0282.jpg)

Fabian “Spartacus” Cancellara. Riding for RadioShack. A Classics specialist & legend. Has had an anonymous start to the season & a two week break after Oman.  His targets are still a good 2-4 weeks away. A 2x winner here, he will be well marked by the other teams. Needs dry conditions & his team to be attacking. If he is within a small select group at the 5th strade bianche sector, he can repeat last years win.

Peter Sagan, after suffering bronchitis in Oman, won well in today's G.P. Camaiore. His team mate Moreno Moser also showed some strong form. Sagan may edge Cancellara in the Strade Bianche betting now.

Kind of busy, but a few names I hope to back tomorrow.

Sagan is best 2/1, not for me.

Cancellara at 6/1 is better value imo.

With punctures & crashes always likely. Some other options:

Oscar Gatto leader of the all Italian team Vini Fantini . 3rd last year, 7th 2011. Super consistent. Good nitty EW bet @ 25/1.

A rider with exceptional form at the moment is Francesco Reda, Androni team. 66/1 FTW is value, especially as he placed 7th in 2012.

Banzai of the week. Dan Martin, Garmin. Quiet start to the season, but reports of some good & focused training for the Classics this year. 2012 saw fine performances in La Flèche Wallonne & Liège-Bastogne-Liège. I’ve taken an early season hunch he could go well here. EW 80/1.

Live on Eurosport saturday afternoon.

Paris-Nice starts on Sunday.

Only had a quick look, but the 7 day stage race looks a touch boring. Most of the top names are preferring the Tirreno-Adriatico on the 6th.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/paris-nice/paris-nice/winner

Racing in Flanders you hope for wind & rain.

In Tuscany you hope for days like these

(https://o.twimg.com/1/proxy.jpg?t=FQQVBBgpaHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0cGljLmNvbS9zaG93L2xhcmdlL2M3emxjZy5qcGcUAhYAEgA&s=l1ksYKyeB5d3Bm8ZeUBO6lNUShv406uSzpmt_0ktW7c)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BEWo_7-CQAEWSgF.jpg)

Seems it's live only on RAI tv, Eurosport showing delayed footage.

Eurosport coverage was crap

ha I watched it on RAI with the super excited commentators! Great last 3km into Siena when it looked possible a group of 10 or so could possibly make the last narrow corner together before the finish.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rSqhg3fWrk

Tejay ftw. Talansky to podium. Go the yanks!

The 100th Edition of the the Tour de France, and so the build up begins... :D

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ku_t6qpVoHU

Tirreno-Adriatico 6-13 March.

(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VRJw_8Q34pg/TX9b33h0BCI/AAAAAAAAPZY/ekb6xu66ejw/s1600/2011%2Bta11.jpg)

An indicator on how riders are shaping up for July, with a sub-plot on the form of the Classics riders ambitions for Milan-Sanremo. Add in the Sprinting battle between Cavendish & Greipel & you have the making of a fantastic race.

Five contenders for the overall; Contador, Froome, Evans, Nibali, & Rodriguez.

Don't like Contador at 2/1. Actually think Froome has an edge over Contador at the moment, particularly with an ITT as the last stage. Available at 4/1.

Also don't mind a small bet with Rodriguez at 9/1. Stages 4 & 5 look like he could put his rivals into serious trouble.

Stage 1 is a TTT. BMC are strongly fancied.

Tirreno-Adriatico.

Stage 1. TTT was won by QPQS. So Cavendish will go into the next stage with the leaders blue jersey.

Stage 2.

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-01/Tirreno-Adriatico-Stage-2-1359384904.jpg)

Expected to be a sprinters stage & the first of the season's battles between Cav & Greipel.

Cav should have the edge in the betting maybe 2/1 to Greipel at 3/1. Rest 12/1...

Can't bet against Cav, although I think Greipel has a higher top speed & his Lotto Belisol team have a more organised lead-out train. Cav tho has the better acceleration & racing instinct.

Many early sprint stages in races are prone to be nervous & chaotic affairs. I fear that the other sprint teams of Goss, Farrar, Hushovd, Degenkolb, Demare, Ferrari, & Ciolek all looking for the lead-out could result in crashes.

Remember Cavs crash in last years Giro caused by Ferrari veering off line.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mP6yjPEpzcg

Paris-Nice.

Stage 3. Andrew Talansky won an 8 man sprint to give himself a 3 second lead in the overall. Tougher stages ahead & needs his team to perform better to hold off the challenges of Tejay van Garderen & Lieuwe Westra.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5qCl4O-mbg

Skys Vasil Kiryienka manages to go sideways downhill!

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sPiPGNPrrg

If anybody fancies doing something themselves the Great Manchester Cycle recently opened for registration

http://www.greatcycle.org/ (http://www.greatcycle.org/)

I think it's basically a 13 mile course and you choose whether to go around it 1, 2 or 4 times

This is the topography of the course they used last year

(http://www.greatcycle.org/App_Files/Gr_files/Great-Manchester-Cycle-2012-Course-Elevation-v2.jpg)

Tirreno-Adriatico live on Eurosport2 now with 70km to go.

Tirreno-Adriatico. Stage 2.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TYpj4yvnz8

Cav & Greipel not even close. A really messy bunch sprint, with all the trains mistiming their leadouts.

Cav not a happy bunny “I don’t know, really … I should have been in the front and I come into a bunch of chaos. We come into the last kilometer in 30th position. I’m pretty disappointed in those last guys today, actually. I had a lot of ground to make up...I’m quite disappointed with my leadout today. It’s not often that I say that, but I think we’ll have to have words tonight.”

Any of today's top 3 were probably available at the 30 to 40/1 range. Such is the unpredictability of bike racing.

Paris-Nice.

Talansky rode a solid tactical stage to hold a narrow lead.

Tomorrow is possibly the crucial & toughest stage. Châteauneuf-du-Pape - La Montagne de Lure

With a final climb to sort out the leaders.

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-03/Paris-Nice-Stage-5-1362225181.jpg)

Nairo Quintana will be a strong favourite for the stage. I also like the form of Michele Scarponi, & at only 18 sec back, he'll be motivated.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/paris-nice/paris-nice-stage-5/winner

Scarponi is 14/1 with Sportingbet, a few points out of line. He's been looking strong all race. Negative, this is only his second race of the season, but previous years he's always been a consistent climber throughout the year. I've gone EW.

Had a quick gander at stage 3 of TA.

Looks a Sagan type stage, hilly finish. Cannondale may try the same tactic as used at Strade Bianche & get Moser away in the last 5km. Main contenders will be biding their time for stage 4 mountains.

Approaching the final climb now on Eurosport.

Paris - Nice 2013 - Stage 5.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ON1vYP_oiXc

My man for the stage, Scarponi, made his move with 4km to go on the climb, but didn't fully commit. Unlike Skys Richie Porte who made a decisive move to get the win.

Talansky showed his inexperience with too many attacks on the climb, when he should have been following & saving energy to battle the last 2km. Still in 2nd, & pretty much on his own ability, as his team have been really poor in supporting him.

Stage 4 at Tirreno-Adriatico.  Narni - Prati di Tivo.

(http://www.vmtravel.it/en/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/hotel-prati-di-tivo-1-big.jpg)

A beautiful part of Italy.

All the big hitters, Contador, Froome, Rodriguez, Evans & Nibali will be testing each other in this mountain top finish.

Rodriguez for me, his form seems to be ahead of his rivals.

Sky showed yesterday that they are following the same path to TdF victory with Froome, as Wiggins last year.

The Sky train blunted all their rivals on the final climb, allowing Froome to attack in the last km. Impressive stuff, but makes for boring racing. 

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQfBZVQQIyQ

The Aussies in OGE at TA

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xwn1DoSwWYg

The final stage today in Paris - Nice is an Individual Time Trial. My EW bet on Talansky looks ok. He's 2nd, 32 sec behind Porte, & a 10 second buffer to Chavanel in 3rd. He should be top three in this stage, & hold for a podium position. Moral boost needed.

Andrew Talansky got 2nd in the ITT, & held comfortably for a tremendous 2nd in GC. He's likely to ride his debut TdF, but certainly needs a stronger team around him to break into the top 5 overall. Top 10 would be an achievement.

Brutal stage in progress at Tirreno-Adriatico, loads of riders abandoning including Cavendish.

Probably the toughest stage seen this year, with climbs of 27% many got off and walked. Over 50 riders abandoned.

(http://velonews.competitor.com/files/2013/03/devolder-walks-537x440.jpg)

Sagan the wunderkid, wins again. Short odds already for Milan-Sanremo get shorter.

Froome lost the overall lead to a strong attack from Nibali.

Milan-Sanremo on Sunday, the first Monument of the season. I'm on Cancellara with a pre-season bet at 11/1, that has drifted a bit  :(

A few days to ponder if there is any value anywhere in opposing Sagan.

Maybe one of the Sky boys, who have been training at altitude in Tenerife?

Sagan is looking awesome, put him ahead of Cav now, massive fav for Green at TdF surely.

Certainly he can dominate for years to come, he's only 23. Frightening!

Bet Victor have priced him 5/4, Cav 13/8 in the TdF points classification.

Looking at his programme.

MSR on sunday strong fav, it really is his to loose.

E3 Prijs Vlaanderen - Harelbeke on 22nd, he should start fav.

Gent - Wevelgem on 24th, he was 2nd in 2012.

Then you've got Tour of Flanders, best price at the moment is 4/1. I got 8/1 back in February. Looking at that market also like the 18/1 Geraint Thomas.

Alot can happen between now & then.

This Is Not a Story About Last Place.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324532004578358780883339720.html?KEYWORDS=phinney

One of the reasons Phinney is already a great rider & an inspirational bloke.

(http://d4nuk0dd6nrma.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/CORVOS_00018914-161.jpg)

Sunday is the 104th Edition of Milan-Sanremo, la classica di Primavera. At nearly 300km it is longest one day race in the world. At nearly 7 hours racing, only the strongest fittest riders can expect to win.

(http://www.milansanremo.co.uk/2013/2013_MSR_Profile.jpg)

The bookies & cycling journalist expect only one winner, Peter Sagan. Probably the hottest favourite in years. Best price at the moment is 7/4. To short for me to get involved.

Possible value options to consider later, when full teams are confirmed, & more accurate weather forecast is available.

MSR in the past has thrown up a few surprise winners.

Tactics will play a large part, particularly in the last 30km, from the Cipressa to the Poggio. Where the sprint teams try to control breakaways (generally unsucessfully in recent years), & punchy climbers attack full gas to get away.

(http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/MilanoSanremo/2011/it/img/img_u30km2011.jpg)

This vid from last year by Zabel & Frere gives an idea of the tactical awareness needed in this race.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3rX3EBPbWA

Start list confirmed.

http://media2.gazzetta.it/gazzetta/pdf/2013/Iscritti-MI-SANREMO-2013.pdf

Weather update looks bad, north easterly strong winds and a lot of rain in San Remo, low temperatures, & possibilities of snow in the early part of the day.

Why Sagan may not win MSR.

Rumours that he has not fully 100% recovered from bronchitis, particularly after the brutal stage in foul weather at TA. 300km in cold rainy MSR may take its toll at the crucial final sections of the race.

Tactically in the past mistakes have cost him races. Still young so understandable. Traditionally the Monuments of cycling are won by riders in their late twenties or early thirties.

Other teams will me marking him. No surprise that, but if two or three teams (I'm thinking OPQS, BMC & Sky) throw their weight around Sagan & Cannondale can make tactical errors.

With the bookies backing Sagan as such a short priced favourite. Opportunities & long prices are available elsewhere.

Cavendish 9/1 on the face of it looks good. However, I have my doubts he can stay with the pace over the Poggio. He has also been talking down his chances (probably mind games). Although the OPQS does look particularly strong with Boonen, Chavanel & Terpstra. Bunch sprints have not been as common in MSR in recent history.

I'm intrigued by how Sky will perform. They ensued the traditional build up to MSR & the classics by altitude training in Tenerife, instead of the normal race build up in Tierreno. By applying specific training methods in winning the TdF, they are now using their own unique approach into winning a major classic. A risky strategy, but Sky have delivered, remember the doubters when Sky said their aim was to win the TdF.

Sky look to have 2 options in Thomas or Edvald Boassen Hagen. My hunch is that Thomas is the protected rider. His stage win in TDU had similarities to the finish at MSR. A fine 4th in Omloop shows he has solid strength & endurance. His last blog entry all sounds positive. This may be the only time the Sky team has flown under the radar before a major race & bookies have, imo, overlooked them somewhat . EBH available at 33/1, but I think he'll be better at Gent-Wevelgem & Flanders. Geriant Thomas, 40/1 is my EW bet.

I would much prefer Thomas over EBH, Thomas seems to have kicked on this year whereas EBH never looks as though he's ever going to fulfill his potential.

Agree, Vegas. He's kind of Sagan "lite" if you see what I mean, can climb & sprint, but seems to lack a killer instinct at the end of races. Think he needs a big result this season, or Sky may ship him out.

The Telegraph do a race preview of MSR.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/cycling/9933218/Milan-Sanremo-2013-race-preview.html

I've also taken a small interset in Mauro Santambrogio. A 28 year old Italian on the Pro Continental Vini Fantini team. He's is in exceptional shape. Strong early season results, particularly a 7th overall in TA, including a 4th in the brutal 6th stage. At the back end of last year he also finished 4th in Il lombardia in torrential rain. With a decent sprint out of a small bunch & strong endurance in the longest races. I'd expect him to feature in the final selection tomorrow. 67/1

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BFjVXa5CIAE5do5.jpg:large)

The feeding zone in MSR today  :o

Seems like Race will stop in Ovada, to avoid snow, & then bus transfer, to restart in Arenzano. Some abandons already. Crazy day ahead!

Looking forward to an afternoon of eurosport and a few micromillion events.

Not had a punt, but I may have a quick look now.

Sky doing handy text updates here:

http://www.teamsky.com/article/0,27290,28603_8572765,00.html

Restart at 2.30 CET.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BFjrBItCAAAstDM.jpg:large)

the peloton reaches Ovada. Never seen such appalling conditions in MSR.

The toughest sportsmen in the world!

Taylor Phinney & iced up helmet, on the bus to restart.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BFjt20kCUAAV9nv.jpg:large)

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H36MxPMlTqQ

arriving at Ovada.

comment from a rider "When my eyeball froze, that's when I lost my shit."

Race changes again. New start for race in Finale Ligure. Climb of Le Manie will be skipped. Start expected in 35 minutes.

Sprinters have a better chance now!

New start in Cogoleto means about 130 km to go. Break of 6 with 7:40 min gap.

Boonen, Terpstra and Vandenbergh all stayed in the bus. That's three guys less to help Cavendish.

Good to hear big Magnus Backstedt telling his stories on Eurosport.

Now down to two team mates left.

Looks like Sky applying the pressure to break some of the main contenders.

Thomas & other Sky riders crash  ;grr; ;grr;

Bubbling up nicely. Go on Stannard!

Fantastic race, enjoyed that.

Volta Ciclista a Catalunya starts tomorrow. 7 day stage race. Wiggins, Hesjedal, Rodriguez & Valverde main contenders.

Last kms of MSR, if anyone missed it.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LYLQKQp9po

Cracking last 30 Ks today, some proper racing in there today no big trains with an obvious outcome. The cream certainly rose by the end

Yeah, proper racing. Sets up nicely for the cobbled classics.

Photo gallery from yesterday: http://www.cyclingtips.com.au/2013/03/milan-san-remo-in-photos/

Not a bet, but I suspect Dan Martin could go well in this, top 5.

Jered Gruber, one of the best cycling photographers, was at MSR. Excellent gallery from him: http://www.flickr.com/photos/smashred/sets/72157633022964483/

The lads on form, at least in stage 1.

http://connect.garmin.com/player/286071191

neat bit of kit  :)

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hRDHdZQFUxo

OGE backstage at MSR

Tomorrow sees the start of the Flemish Cycle Week, with Dwars door Vlaanderen.

(http://www.pavepavepave.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/photo_11381_20110301-630x416.jpg)

A 200km one day race, with sections cobbles & bergs (steep hills). Primarily a warm up for:

E3 Prijs Vlaanderen - Harelbeke, 22nd.

Gent - Wevelgem, 24th.

Ronde van Vlaanderen, 31st. The biggest of the cobbled classics after Paris - Roubaix, 7th April.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlzeevC2rWI

Sky in 2012 at DdV.

Many of the top riders have pulled out after Sundays tough race. Plenty of the teams have scheduled their 2nd string & younger riders.

OPQS Niki Terpstra should have a strong chance. Sky's Geraint Thomas was listed as leading the team, but I think has pulled out. Forecast is for heavy rain, so Stannard may give it a go after his heroics in MSR.

A couple of names that could be in the frame, Tom Veelers of Argos - Shimano, & Alexander Kristoff of Katusha.

Tough old race at DdV

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyL2tdeylLI

Jack Bauer had a nasty crash.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4B2mCwLzfp8

thankfully, he's ok & out of hospital.

What with all the one day classics & Catalunya going on. I forgot saturday has Critérium International in Corsica. Froome has been training there all week, & will probably start favourite.

Critérium International, famous for the horse joining the race incident in 1997

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQSkmsFCjSA

Dan Martin attacking on todays stage. Eurosport now.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKHignTtAi4

Hell of a great ride by Dan Martin. Will still need to scrap hard to stay in top 3.

E3 Prijs Vlaanderen - Harelbeke tomorrow.

Another Sagan & Cancellara battle you would of thought, but recent races have shown long odds riders nipping in for the win.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/e3-prijs-vlaanderen-harelbeke/winner

Not had any time to do any work in this, but a quick scan, aside favourites, Eisel, Iglinsky & Roelandts look to have some EW value.

Tour of Britain route announced yesterday

(https://default.secure.media.ipcdigital.co.uk/11141/000009fac/1d42/ToB-2013-map.jpg)

http://thetour.co.uk/

on Eurosport2 now

Cheers for the updates Tonji. I have been ridic busy this week, not seen anything of the cycling. Views on Wiggo form, any better/worse than last year?

Cheers Vegas,

Only really had one eye on the cycling myself this week.

From what I've seen in Catalunya, Wiggo's form is building for the Giro ok. Not up to the same level as last year. But pretty sure Sky will have him up to speed.

Dan Martin's performance in Catalunya has encouraged. 1st at the moment with today & tomorrows stage left.

Available at 50/1 for Liege-Bastogne-Liege. 5th last year. He looks in better shape this. VALUE.

Tomorrows Gent - Wevelgem looks to be in danger, snow falling & forecast, -3 degrees  :(

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jyFNp_aCkw

Sky riders talk about the Classics.

Is on  :) Maybe a day for the sprinters. Cavendish & Greipel start.

Final stage of Catalunya. Dan Martin has a 17 sec lead over Purito. Could be a close battle in Barcelona.

Final day at Critérium International, with a tough mountain stage. Froome, Porte, Talansky & Van Garderen all within 7 secs.

Nice call on Martin

Froome and Porte looked very strong today, impressed with both.

Sagan is an absolute beast

Martin is in the form of his life. He's had trouble with confidence, but always had potential. Pleased to see him showing his true ability. He can have a good shot at LBL.

Yeah, Sky look to be on track to dominate the TdF. Really just Contador stands in their way. The other teams need to find a way to disrupt the Sky train.

I'm Hoping to get over to Belgium on Sunday for Flanders. It should be an immense battle between Cancellara & Sagan.

Driedaagse van De Panne-Koksijde (Three days of De Panne) starts tomorrow. Many of the top riders will use this race to fine tune for Flanders on sunday. Tom Boonen, Belgium's biggest sporting star, also starts to see if will be fit for sunday after crashing out of Gent - Wevelgem. The hopes of Belgium rest on his shoulders.

Some photo reflections on the semi classics:

http://www.cyclingtips.com.au/2013/03/reflections-on-the-semi-classics-by-kristof-ramon/

(http://24.media.tumblr.com/3eb686d9f14da7dbb3e29b912f48674b/tumblr_mkapf6DhAR1qfzn6ro1_400.gif)

Off on Friday to Belgium & France. Will definitely see Flanders on Sunday. Hoping that I can arrange some business to stay for Paris-Roubaix on the following sunday.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGXEyFEhABI

What sunday is all about!  :)

Tour of Flanders, the 2nd major classic of the year. Belgian's want Boonen to win, but his form is way off last year. He'll give it ago.

It really is expected to be the Sagan/Cancellara show. I'm on Sagan, the kid is a genius. Cancellara is still a classics legend, his experience may count if Sagan makes one mistake.

The Top teams will be looking to disrupt the two favouites. I expect Sky's Geraint Thomas to have a seroius tilt at this race, top 3 a possibility.

If the weather is dry & not too cold Lampre's Filippo Pozzato can play a part.

Others who shown some form this year & could be involved in the final mix are Katusha's Luca Paolini & Alexander Kristoff, BMC's Greg Van Avermaet & Vini Fantini's Oscar Gatto.

All live on Eurosport.

Sky riders talking about the Classics

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwTSxo9XTZE

7th April. Paris - Roubaix "Hell of the North"

The oldest & toughest of bike races.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNRoie0RAUU

Although Cancellara will probably win. My picks are Phinney & Stannard, two of the toughest young guns.

Back from 2 weeks in Northern Europe, business & bikes!

Managed to miss the Tour of Flanders, but watched sections of Paris-Roubaix in Arenberg, & the rest in a local bar. Tremendous atmosphere, plenty of Brits made the trip over.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUFwms7f4wg

Such an epic race, even those left struggling seem heroic!

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wglr6musCZk

Sunday sees the start of the Ardennes classics with the Amstel Gold Race.

Been a bit out of the loop, but Sagan won again during the week, with Gilbert showing much improved form. Parcours should suit Gerrans, he could do well if his team back him fully & not split their options.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/amstel-gold-race/winner

Some value with skybet going top 4, 1/4 odds.

Was pleased that Sep Vanmarcke had such a great ride in PR after bearly being able to walk a few weeks earlier after a nasty crash. A genuine guy.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ivlgs01c-h4

Amstel Gold Race live on Eurosport at 1.10pm.

Currently 7 escapees with an 11 minute gap to the peloton.

Giro del Trentino starts tomorrow. A 4 day race with 5 stages, includes a team time trial on day one.

Wiggins using this as a build up to the Giro, & is priced too short. His form is reported good in training, but full race shape? I have my doubts. The Sky team looks inexperienced, no Uran, Henao or Kiryienka (on the Giro team), they race in the Ardennes this week.

Will be backing Nibali at 7/2, hoping he's recovered from the cold picked up at Milan-Sanremo. Also the Astana team looks stronger than Sky, & can gain time in the TTT.

Also small EW on Mauro Santambrogio at 28/1, who had a great Tirreno-Adriatico.

Hey Tonji. I've been waiting the whole weekend for the bookies to put prices up for the Giro del Trentino, and now that I've seen them, I'm not that impressed.

I agree with everything you've said in your analysis. Wiggins is priced too short, and although the nature of the climbs (long and gradual) will suit his style, I think he is drastically short of team support here, and will struggle not to get dropped by stronger climbers (in my opinion), like Scarponi and Nibali, on the last two days. Nibali, for one, has impressed me so far this year, and I have him as the favourite, especially given his intention to focus on the Giro d'Italia (according to the press). Remember that Scarponi won the Giro the same year that he won at Trentino!

Given that there is not much value in the three favourites, I was hoping I might find a dark horse to upset the podium. At 28/1, I think Santambrogio is a great E/W call. If you look at the sort of riders he was holding his own against in the Tirreno-Adriatico (with a similar sort of parcours to Trentino), it would be hard not to call him the fourth favourite. Rolland is a stayer rather than an attacker, and Pozzovivo (although gifted) is priced in on last year's (weaker field) honours.

I was hoping that I might find some other diamonds in the rough, but I honestly don't know the other teams that well. I might have a cheeky bet on one of the Caja Rural boys (Txurukka or Fraile) to sneak one of the final mountain stages, as they do love attacking.

Along with the Nibali and Santambrogio bets, I also couldn't resist having £5 on BMC in tomorrow's TTT at 11/2 (Bet365). I do love betting against Sky.

I look forward to your analysis of the Fleche Wallone. My early E/W picks include Betancur and Martin, although I will look at the field in more detail tomorrow. I see SkyBet are paying 4 places.

Hi cws,

Thanks for taking some time to air your thoughts, some excellent insights, keep em coming.

Bit pushed for time, but agree re TTT betting against Sky.

Not sure I'll have much free time before Fleche, but also like Martin, but in LBL, I think I have 40/1 EW from a few weeks back.

La Fleche Wallone

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/la-fleche-wallone/winner

Sagan cramped up on sunday in Amstel, over raced in recent weeks?

Contador, not really properly prepared for this week, 2nd leader in team behind Kreuzinger with a watching brief imo.

Gilbert, certainly back in shape this week. His crash in the Amstel & chase back probably blunted his finish.

Valverde also in excellent shape. Prone to mistakes early in a race. Like his team mate Quintana either here or on sunday at Leige-Baston-Leige.

Sky's Henao & Porte should be in with a chance.

As cws said skybet top 4 paid must be value there.

Off out, more later.

Notice Rodriguez is listed as starting for Katusha. I had thought he was out due to his crash on sunday. If fully fit I would expect him to be joint favourite, but odds of 5-7/1 reflect the doubts.

Katusha's Giampaolo Caruso has a better chance of a good finish. 11th in Amstel with some good results this year. 150/1 looks attractive.

A rider under the radar this season has been Orica Green Edge's Michael Albasini. With Gerrans resting up for LBL after a very good podium at Amstel. Albasini looks to be the sole leader, with Pieter Weening playing a similar attacking role he preformed at Amstel, allowing Albasini to preserve energy until the final climb. He has an impressive record here, never out of the top 11 in the past five editions & 2nd last year. Season form is patchy, but has a win in stage 4 at Paris-Nice. This will be one of his & the teams main ambitions for the season. Have taken 22/1 EW with PP.

Carlos Betancur, quite like your bet cws.

Great prospect, showed his potential in the Tour of the Basque Country. Negative is that it is his debut here, experience seems to be a common factor to do well here in recent years.

Dan Martin, rider I like a lot. Backed him in Catalunya, hoping for a podium & he exceeded my expectations. He crashed out in Amstel, I think with minor neck problems, but seems fine from his twitter comments. Had a fine 2012 in the Ardennes classics. I've got him EW in LBL. Think he needs this race to fine tune for sunday, but hope & think he will show well tomorrow. Good luck.

Final thought from me on Fleche.

The Blanco team rode well at ASG, featuring in the breaks, & with two riders, Bauke Mollema & Lars Petter Nordhaug, in the final sprint for the podium places.

Bauke Mollema has been riding strongly this season with a number of podium finishes. 7th & 6th in 2012 at Fleche & LBL, he knows how to feature in the finals. PP go 66/1. I expected in the region of 33/1. My final EW bet for this race.

Thanks for the info on the Fleche Wallone, Tonji. I've done a bit more research now, and if it all comes down to the Mur de Huy, I'm hoping that Sagan cramps up, Gilbert makes a move and runs out of steam, Rodriguez succumbs to his injuries, and Valverde slips a chain.

Realistically, Valverde and Gilbert have the best chances in this race based on pedigree. However, given the wall-like finish of stage 3 of the Tour of the Basque country, I'm going for Henao to win, with Betancur e/w. Henao was like a mountain goat on the 21% gradient there, and Betancur just never gave in. I agree with you that Martin may be holding out for Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but I couldn't resist an e/w bet given the form he is in. Mind you, I will probably back him in LBL as well.

And lastly, I've decided to have another e/w bet on Albasini. This race seems to favour previous nearly-rans, and given his second place finish last year, and his impressive form this year, he is hard to ignore. I'll owe you for that pick if he wins. Good luck tomorrow.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bLMrjdEAGE

Is underway.

Live on Eurosport 2pm.

Giro del Trentino stage 1a yesterday was a bizarre one. A group of breakaway riders stayed away, with winner Maxime Bouet having nearly a 7 minute lead over the main contenders. Seems as if the big teams looked to Sky to bring back the breakaway, & they decided to sit on. Can't see how Boutet can lose from here, he's a reasonable climber. Overall bets are pretty much dead  :(

Interest now is really to just to monitor the form of Wiggins, Nibali et al ahead of the Giro.

Nice job cws, think you should have some profit somewhere in your tips.  ;applause; ;applause;

Thanks Tonji. Pity Moreno decided to break up my party, but two out of four, and a double-up, isn't bad. Next stop, Liege.

Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Sunday 21st.

(http://www.alexkehr.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/ONEV9440.jpeg)

(http://www.letour.com/PHOTOS/LBL/2013/100/PROFIL.png)

I have a copy of this photo in my office, always smile at who is looking at the photographer!, click to see the large image & spot it  :)

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCF3DE-PiaY

Santambrogio looks sharp & strong, a good bet for stages & mountain jersey in the Giro.

Wiggins seemed comfortable & a match to Nibali in this stage.

I agree. Santambrogio does look like a force to be reckoned with in the Giro. Unfortunately, he is not a great time-triallist, and will also suffer in the team time-trial, so I agree with you and will go for him in the King of the Mountains.

As for Trentino, I'm all at sea. I've got a fair amount on Nibali to win and change on Santambrogio to place. Sitting here now, I'm most confident in my Santambrogio bet.

Bouet gave everything yesterday and still finished 2'23 behind Siutsou. Even though today's mountain stage is not as taxing as yesterday's, I still see the pure climbers (read Wiggins, Nibali, Pozzovivo, Santambrogio, Evans, Rolland and Siutsou) putting some distance between themselves and the rest of the peloton. Whether they make up the gap to Bouet by Friday afternoon is one for the crystal ball. I'm guessing "yes".

Now, Siutsou won't be allowed to break again like he was yesterday. But he still has 29s on Wiggo, and 37s on Nibali. He won't lose that time today. Wiggins looks reasonably strong, and surprisingly Nibali failed to drop him on stage 2. Personally, I thought Nibali would try harder to shake the Sky man, but maybe he is saving something for the Giro. Santambrogio had a great last 2kms, but in my mind is too far off to threaten the lead (45s behind Siutsou/4:04 behind Bouet). Tomorrow's stage will suit a climber/descender like Cadel Evans, and if I didn't think a breakaway would have a chance here, I'd probably have a fiver on him e/w (14/1 @ Bet365 for anyone interested).

So, it all comes down to the final stage on Friday. A similar ending to yesterday, we'll probably get much the same result, minus the breakaway 8km from the finish. Who will win overall comes down to whether you think Bouet will hold his lead (he's talking about a podium place according to the press) or if he will be caught up in the next two days. Since I've already got two bets down, I'm going to be hedging with £10 on Siutsou to win the Giro del Trentino. Win-only, he is 7/1 @ Bet365. If you can get an e/w bet tomorrow for the same odds, jump at it.

PS. I got Siutsou for overall @ 8/1. So I celebrated by going £4 e/w (1-2-3) on Evans to win stage 3 @ 16/1 and £2 on Omar Fraile to win stage 3 @ 100/1. He finished 5th from last yesterday, which is waaaaaaaay below his standards. Can only figure he fancies his chances in today's stage. Txurukka had his go yesterday. It's Fraile's turn today.

I've written off Nibali at Trentino, plus he is down to ride LBL on sunday, so may be using the next few days as training?

Hoping Santambrogio can podium, we'll see.

No further bets for me on this, too distracted at work & with a little LBL research.

That's probably something Sky need to do more of. The other big teams been feeding off skys efforts at the head of the peleton for too long.

Good point vegas, probably a warning ahead of the Giro that Sky are no longing going to be assumed to pull the peloton along.

ohhhh looking good for Nibali & Santambrogio

 :) Nibali & Santambrogio 1st & 2nd overall.

That was a tougher stage than I thought & Bouet couldn't limit the time difference & takes 3rd.

Wiggins 5th after a mechanical.

Well done, Tonji. Wasn't that mechanical a nice surprise? Thanks for the tip.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1uZ2M9f6Iw

How to fling a £12K bike across a road & park it  :)

LBL a few thoughts, please chip in anyone.

I've already got Dan Martin EW @ 33/1, placed after his Catalunya win, now best 22/1. Happy with that, but he'll be well marked on Sunday.

Less happy with the 20/1 EW on Maxim Iglinskiy taken after Strade Bianche, now available at 33/1  ::) He was great last year at the Ardennes classics culminating in a win at LBL. This year not so hot, despite reasonable showing at Dwars Door Vlaanderen. He may be able to take advantage of the fact that his team mate Nibali will be well marked & get away, but a faint hope I think.

Simon Gerrans, after a good 3rd at Amstel Gold, he decided to sit out Fleche. Think this may be a wise move. Gerrans knows LBL really well having riden it 5 times, with a best of 6th, but always in the top 20. Saw 18/1 yesterday, looks like an ok bet for a rider in form & experienced. Team looks to be set up around him to get him to the final.

LBL is looking hard to predict as usual. Many of the teams have their top GT riders taking a shot, notably Froome & Nibali.

Sky looks a strong team, with options in Froome, Porte, Henao & Uran. But way one day races go at full gas for pretty much 90% of the race, & with positioning vital. Henao & Uran have better chances imo.

Astana & Nibali look a touch stronger than Sky with Iglinsky, Gasparotto & Fuglsang. Nibali was 2nd last year, 8th in 2011. Coming of the back of a win in Giro del Trentino, he'll be full of confidence. Think he's lacking some top end power, & with his season aim of the Giro a few weeks away will be not at his peak yet. But at 10/1? I'm dithering  :)

cws, any opinion on your man Carlos Betancur, can he repeat his Fleche performance?

Also had a look at Quintana, but can't see much to get behind him. Valverde rules in Movistar, particularly after Amstel.

A couple of more considerations tomorrow.

Liege-Bastogne-Liege is such a hard race to predict, because it can end up two different ways. The last few years, the winner has been decided by the Roche aux Faucons (or Falcon's Rock), about 20km from the finish, with breakaway groups forming either on its 10% uphill gradient or its 8% descent. These small groups, consisting of only a handful of riders, then tend to fight it out for the victory over the last climb, the Cote de Saint-Nicholas (1.2km, 8.6%). This year, due to roadworks, there is no Falcon's Rock, only the longer, but more gentle, Colonster (2.4km, 6%). This means that for the first time in years, we could be looking at the second possibility: a bunch finish.

I am going to assume that this will be the most likely outcome, otherwise picking a winner will be next to impossible (although I have had a few banzai bets, just in case). I read somewhere that the climb up Saint-Nicholas was built for Philippe Gilbert. No doubt this is true. If, at the end of the day, it all comes down to 12 riders at the bottom of the hill, my money is on Gilbert. The truth is that he is in really good form at the moment. In the Amstel, he lost as soon as Kreuziger got away, but still powered up the Cauberg in 5th. In Fleche Wallone, he had a go, but the gradient was too much for him, and he couldn't maintain his burst of speed. Saint-Nicholas, on the other hand, is perfect for him, and there are only a few other punchers that will thrive on its slopes: Sagan, Valverde, Gerrans, Martin, and Uran. Note that I have not included Henao and Betancur in this list, as I feel they need something steeper to make best use of their talents.

Sagan (not really a puncher), as it turns out, is skipping the LBL (probably because he wouldn't be able to handle all the climbing). It's a pity, because the finish is ideal for him. Valverde and Gerrans have shown their form this season, and are both hungry for the Ardennes win denied them by Kreuziger. Martin has finished well in the LBL in the past, and was unlucky not to podium in the Fleche Wallone. With Froome and Henao sure to be marked men, I feel Uran has a great chance to slip off the front of the peloton, and he is a great sprinter to boot.

So how am I betting? Like Tonji, I've got an e/w bet on Martin @ 28/1 (best now 20/1) which I am quietly confident about. There's a small e/w banzai on Rui Costa @ 150/1 (given all the attention on Quintana and Valverde). And a small banzai on Uran to win @ 80/1. Seeing as Gerrans has dropped to 18/1, I've also had an e/w bet on him.

My main bet however is on Valverde and Gilbert. I am pretty certain that one of these two will win tomorrow, and so I am placing half my win stake on each @ 5/1, thereby ensuring a fairly safe return of 5/2. How much to bet depends on how confident you are that there will be a bunch finish.

Cheers cws, great stuff.

Here's Cote de Saint-Nicholas

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIWZ7rVbHqA

Certainly does look like a Gilbert punchy climb.

Interesting comments from Sky's Richie Porte in the media


That'll be Gilbert, Valverde, Nibali & Rodriguez.

The case can be made for any of those four, but I've quit dithering & gone the oppostite of cws & have Nibali @ 10/1 FTW

Stand out performance in the Ardennes Classics this week has been OPQS young rider Michal Kwiatkowski. A 4th & 5th in Amstel & Fleche. Really souldn't have been a suprise as he had great showings earlier in the season. Hopefully his ante post race prices next season will remain attractive.

hmmm, really interested in this just to see where everybody is form and race sharpness wise. So many quality riders in form this season, us fans are getting spoilt.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BIXOZCfCEAAr1IP.jpg:large)

50km gone, breakaway with a 3min gap.

Live on Eurosport at 1.15pm

CMON DAN

 ;yippee; ;yippee; ;yippee;

Thread delivers, again.

Nice one, Tonji. Think you've got the Midas touch at the moment. I was hoping Rui Costa would do the unthinkable, but all in all, I think we were pretty nailed on with our selections. Only surprised by Betancur in 4th, and Gilbert settling once again for 7th.

A mini rush. Needed it, results were sparse earlier in the season.

Two weeks til the Giro, with the Tour of Romandie on tuesday.

(http://www.tourderomandie.ch/images/homepage/visuel-min.jpg)

http://www.tourderomandie.ch/en/1-home

5 stages, starting with a 7.45km uphill prologue. Stage 4 is a mountainous with 4 category 1 climbs. Final stage 18km TT, relatively flat.

Sky Sports are taking the TV coverage so Chris Froome is under contract to win  :) followed by Richie Porte.

Battle for the final podium place I should imagine to be between Garmin's Talansky (2nd last year), Movistar's Valverde & Costa & OPQS's Tony Martin.

Outsiders, Katusha's Simon Spilak, he'll need to be in prime climbing form to gain time ahead of the final TT. Maybe Saxo-Bank's Roman Kreuziger can carry some of the Ardennes form into stage racing.

Cavendish is back in action, to fine tune his sprinting & to find some climbing rhythm ahead of the Giro.

A few early thoughts on the Giro D'Italia:

The 2013 edition of the Giro is one for the time-triallists. Rumour has it that the organisers were keen to attract the winner of the Tour de France, and so designed a stage race that would suit Bradley Wiggins. That they have done. And unsurprisingly, when you look at the 93.5km of TT on offer, he is odds-on to win the red jersey. Second-favourite is Vincenzo Nibali, who is arguably a better climber than Wiggins, as well as more than useful in the time trial. Both riders have strong teams, Sky and Astana, who'll protect their leads through the flatter stages and see them through the TTT. There is no value in picking the winner of the Giro this year.

However, predicting the last place on the podium is a lot more interesting. The caveat here is that official startlists have not been issued yet, and so my predictions are based on those riders with widely-quoted odds (ie. it is likely they will be in the starting line-up).

Other than Wiggins and Nibali, there are no other proven TT riders in the field. I think I saw Phinney quoted somewhere, but he wouldn't last one day in the mountains. Porte is not certain to take part. Evans is past his best and won't threaten. Sanchez may surprise, but can't climb like he used to. And Hesjedal just about justifies his position as third-favourite. The rest (including Scarponi, Henao, Gesink and Uran), in my opinion, are mediocre at best (at time-trialling). Now the reason that this is interesting, is that when you're talking about 93.5km of cumulative TT, this could mean an advantage of as much as 12 minutes to a time triallist of Wiggins' ability. Maybe more. That is huge.

One name I haven't mentioned so far is Carlos Betancur. Users of this thread will probably know by now that I have an unhealthy obsession for this rider. Truth is, the kid can climb, and he should be there or thereabouts in the mountain stages, hopefully holding his own against Wiggins and Nibali over the Stelvio and Galibier. But can he time-trial? Not brilliantly, but he seems to be improving rapidly on that front, probably aware of the fact that it is a potential weakness. Recently, he finished 8th to Tony Martin in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco ITT, only about 20s behind Porte and Spilak over 24km. Unfortunately, he will lose time in the TTT (as AG2R are not the best in this discipline), but on the plus side he should be team leader now that Pozzovivo is injured.

We still don't know if he'll be taking part for sure, though. But at 250/1, I jumped on him e/w. He is now available @ 200/1 (888) and 150/1 (PP), and I recommend having a small (and obviously risky) bet e/w. If anything, he should give us a decent sweat. Hopefully, he won't use up all his energy in the Tour de Romandie starting tomorrow (more to follow...).

Another good rider at decent odds is Benat Intxausti @ 66/1. A decent TTist, he can climb as well, although I think he'll struggle to stay with the best in the field (Wiggins, Nibali, Basso, Hesjedal, Scarponi, Gesink, Uran and Betancur).

Also, if Michal Kwiatkowski announces that he will be doing the Giro, put your house on him to podium.

The Tour de Romandie starts today, and you'd have to be a genius to pick the winner of this one. The two time-trial stages suggest that riders like Martin, Froome, Porte, Talansky, Valverde, Spilak, Peraud and Westra will have the advantage. But the queen stage on the fifth day (with four category 1 climbs) will throw other names into the mix: Costa, Rolland, Gesink, Basso, Betancur, Moreno and Danielson. Added to this is the fact that a lot of riders use the race to fine-tune for the Giro a week later, and so could take it relatively easy. This also leads to the potential for a breakaway to succeed. For all these reasons, I'm out.

But I'm also in. And that is because I like the look of the opening prologue, a 7.5km sprint up a category 3 climb. Having researched a fair number of time-trials for my previous Giro post, I'm going to put my knowledge to the test:

On paper, Tony Martin should win this stage. He is the best TT rider in the world, and he is in cracking form. For much the same reason, Porte should be second, and Froome/Talansky should round off the podium. But the short prologue TT is a strange beast, as the favourites often do not go full out on the first stage, the reason being that they have too much to lose (in an accident) and not enough to gain (time-wise). I predict that someone more motivated could upset the apple cart and put themselves on the podium in place of a marquee name. It just so happens that there is no shortage of time-trial talent in this year's Tour de Romandie (and e/w, there are some attractive prices). However, given that TTists prefer the flats, whether they survive the gradual climb over 7.5km is the million-dollar question. I have put money on all of the following (in order of preference):

Jean Christophe Peraud (33/1 @ Bet365) - great uphill TTist with 4th & 3rd in last 2 Nice-Col D'Eze (cat 1) ITT of Paris-Nice.
Adriano Malori (200/1) - IMO currently 2nd best TTist in the world under 10km on flat, behind Martin.
Manuelle Boaro (150/1) - 2nd to Porte, beat Froome (4) & Talansky (5) in 2013 Criterium ITT (7km).
Svein Tuft (250/1) - Canadian TT champion, 2013 Tour de San Luis ITT winner, good pedigree.
Marco Pinotti (200/1) - 5th in the 2012 Olympics ITT, 1st 2012 Giro d'Italia ITT, back from injury?

I'll let Fred decide how much exposure to take and how many to back (strongly recommend top three).

Fantastic write up cws. Like your work. I've taken your recommends. gl us

(http://www.tourderomandie.ch/images/etapes/00_deniv.png)

Prologue profile.

Start Times:
http://www.tourderomandie.ch/images/etapes/00_depart.pdf

Just for interest sake I've also taken a little EW on Talansky for the overall. 10/1 on skybet. Think that is a smidgen of value, as Porte looked a little flat in Ardennes & Talansky's Garmin team are on a bit of a high at the moment. Add in that he has been a winner for me this year & my new Illy coffee machine is just the best  :D

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/giro-ditalia-betancur-and-pozzovivo-lead-ag2r-la-mondiale

Likely joint leaders. But certainly agree he'll be looking for an early win in the mountains.

Terrible result in the prologue at the Tour de Romandie, with not one of my picks making the top 10. The gradient of the parcours definitely did not suit the pure time-triallists, which basically put paid to 4 of my selections. Was disappointed by Peraud's performance though, as he looked up for it at the beginning. Overall, no big surprises on the podium, with Kiserlowski impressing in 3rd place, in amongst Froome (1), Talansky (2) and Porte (4). No massive time gaps, but it looks like Froome's race to lose now. Oh well, what Daniel Martin giveth, cheapwetsuit taketh away.

Just to add, Betancur really impressed in the prologue, and so my e/w recommend for the Giro still stands. And nice pick there with Talansky, Tonji. He really gave it everything.

no problems cws. I played it small ball. Onwards...

Busy week lined up here, so any stage info/thoughts most welcome. Hopefully I'll have some time over the weekend to look at the Giro more closely.

A pretty good general introduction to the Giro.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHiiQM6B1T0

The official 2013 Giro d'Italia technical guide has been published.

There is a digitial version, in pdf format. 369 pages long  :)

http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/Giroditalia/2013/download/Garibaldi_2013.pdf

How the Spanish see us Brits!

From Joaquim Rodríguez's twitter: The first time ever in my life I'm in England!! Unbelievable that everybody I speak with looks like as if they had came out of Top Gear!! :)

Nice result there. 10km from the finish, Sky commentators said they couldn't see Mark Cavendish in the main peloton. So went to see the odds for the other sprinters, and was surprised to see Cavendish still shortening as favourite on Bet365. As low as 2/5 with no sight of him anywhere in the bunch. Of course I filled up with the other sprinters, and snagged Meersman at an incredible 24/1. At the same time, Betfair had Meersman at 4/1! Caught Bet365 napping, I think. Makes up for yesterday's debacle. I suggest keeping an eye on Meersman's Bet365 odds for tomorrow's stage ... another hilly affair. And listen to the commentators. :)

Also, StanJames still have Talansky @ 10/1 (e/w 1,2,3) and Porte @ 12/1 (e/w 1,2,3) for the overall. I decided to jump on board with both. Valverde seems the only one likely to threaten a Froome, Talansky, Porte 1-2-3.

well done cws, 24/1   :o & I think he went off favourite.

Been too busy, only got Sky in the background.

Team Sky have confirmed the Giro squad.

http://www.teamsky.com/article/0,27290,17553_8668798,00.html

Pretty much as expected, full of climbers & diesels.

(http://www.tourderomandie.ch/images/etapes/01_deniv.png)

Stage 3. Final climb looks tougher than todays, so fewer of the sprinters likely to make the finish. Meersman rightly favourite, but Francesco Gavazzi (6th today) should be his main challenger if it comes to a bunch sprint. 12/1 EW looks to have some value. Negative, stage profile makes it possible for a breakaway of riders with no overall hopes to stay away.

Oops. Think you're looking at the wrong stage Tonji. Today is stage 2 (don't forget the prologue). :)

(http://www.grassyknolltv.com/2013/tour-de-romandie/profile-02.png)

Stage 2 looks to be the flattest stage of the Tour de Romandie. It's hard to know what's going through Mark Cavendish's mind at the moment, but I don't believe that he's gone to Switzerland to stretch his legs. At the moment, he is 8/1 @ William Hill and 7/1 @ Paddy Power to win today's stage. These are incredible prices for the best sprinter in the world. I guarantee that if Cavendish makes it over the Plagne climb in the peloton, and there are no breakaways, then he will be in the mix at the end of the race. Plus, he now has something to prove. According to Meersman, Cavendish had a mechanical yesterday, and so instead of acting as leadout, Meersman became OPQS's chief sprinter. I've had £5 on Cavendish to win Stage 2 of the Tour de Romandie. Don't bother going e/w, as he rarely finishes second (unless there is a breakaway).

Sigh, need a holiday  :)

Ned Boulting On The Giro d'Italia 2013

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afeIAyK_uMo

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-04/Tour-de-Romandie-Stage-4-1365766563.jpg)

Stage 4. The queen stage. Forecast not great, shame, as on a bright sunny day the stage would look spectacular on TV.

Valverde probably sees this stage as his chance for yellow & to put Froome under pressure, particularly on the final descent where Froome has an apparent weakness.

Expect attacks from the teams of Pinot, Betancur, Gesink & van den Broeck to weaken any Sky attempts to control the stage.

Under the radar in this race is Simon Spilak. A past winner (by default), if he has the form of earlier in the month he could well feature. At 150/1, can't resist an interest, imo he should be 30-40/1.

With prices on Valverde & Froome being so short, there is good opportunities elsewhere, but will ponder over night.

Ryder Hesjedal on twitter “Stopped today to give myself a week till Giro..same as last year except I feel better on the bike. #moreisnotalwaysbetter.”

Obviously I've gone for Betancur in this. Lousy odds of 15/1 though. Slightly better priced is Damiano Cunego @ 33/1 (Bet365). Apparently he is quite handy at descending. I also like your Spilak tip, and will be hoping for a good showing from him. All e/w.

Tour de Romandie route changed because of bad weather. The finish.

(https://o.twimg.com/2/proxy.jpg?t=HBgpaHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0cGljLmNvbS9zaG93L2xhcmdlL2NtOG9xNS5qcGcUsAQUrAIAFgASAA&s=HUBXpwfBM7GBk-KgQWJMLrStd1oXsB1YX-jAI1BLliA)

Not good for Valverde, but better for Betancur, Pinot & Froome.

Have gone for cws's Betancur.

So todays stage now looks like this

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-04/Tour-de-Romandie-Stage-4-1367056449.jpg)

with the high point, the Col de la Croix, looking very wintery

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BI2Zx42CQAAsoiz.jpg)

Chances of the Giro riders, including Betancur, pulling off if conditions are particularly tough. We'll see.

Great form continues ahead of the Giro for Santambrogio winning GP Industria Artigianato-Larciano.

Tonji, you are a legend. Would you mind giving me the Lotto numbers for tonight's draw?

Love it when a plan comes together  :D

No bet for me in the ITT. Tony Martin is too good, but todays breakaway may have it effects tomorrow. Adriano Malori or Svein Tuft may come close.

I agree with you that in a win-only market, Tony Martin is too good to oppose in the time trial, so I'm waiting for later today in the hope that one or two bookies introduce an e/w market. Talansky at 250/1 (SkyBet) would then be impossible to resist. Adriano Malori @ 13/2 and Svein Tuft @ 15/1 don't represent nearly enough value, even though Malori should be in the mix come the end of the day. Saying that, I might be tempted to put a few quid on Manuelle Boaro, as he has been the one pure TTist that has impressed me thus far in the Tour de Romandie. At 40/1, he represents a bit of value given his 16th place finish in the prologue (which did not suit him), and his propensity to attack the peloton. Then again, I might just leave it alone.

Giro d’Italia 2013. 4-26 May.

(http://static.suipedali.it/625X0/www/suipedali/it/img/Giro-dItalia-2013-squadre.jpg)

To me summer has arrived with the first of the seasons three Grand Tours. I've always associated each tour with an actress. The Giro is Isabella Rossellini, eccentric, beautiful, passionate & a little bit nuts!

(http://pleasurephotoroom.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/isabella-rossellini-photo-terry-o_neill-1984.jpg)

(http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/Giroditalia/2011/en/Comunicati/2013/04/24/EN_GIRO_Contenders.jpg)

Sir Wiggo, bookies make him favourite. Personally I have him joint favourite with Nibali. The volume on Wiggins has probably shortened his price.

This years lead up to the Giro could not have been more different to last year ahead of the Tour, where he won everything. The Sky training philosophy for the Giro has been altered specifally.

This article in Guardian explains well the work & methods of Wiggins coach Tim Kerrison. http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/apr/27/bradley-wiggins-giro-tim-kerrison

Over the past year or so Sky have dominated in stage races. Using the Sky train to strangle the life out of the peloton. I think they understand the difference between the TdF & the Giro, with it's steeper climbs & more open attacking racing. Hence the need for Wiggins to be able to defend or attack if necessary by himself when isolated on the final climbs. The Sky team is packed strong, packed with climbers & diesels. But ultimately Wiggins will have to suffer on his own when the race will inevitably fracture on the approach to the summits in the final week.

Stage 8, a 54.km ITT, will be the first objective to gain as much time as possible into his rivals. He'll be looking for minutes not seconds.

The final week with four big mountain stages & a mountain ITT will be where the race is won or lost.

Vincenzo Nibali (Astana). The 28 year old Italian, has won the Vuelta, 3rd in the TdF & two top 3 finishes in the Giro. He is desperate to win this, & probably thinks this year is his best chance with only Wiggins standing in his way.

His form in the lead up has been pretty impressive. Winning Tirreno-Adriatico & Giro del Trentino.

Head to head against Wiggins, the career stats give Nibali a slight edge. Although recent results will swing it back in favour of Wiggins.

Nibali's perceived weakness will be in the ITT. Last year in two 50km+ time trials he lost over 3 minutes each to time to Wiggins. This season he has ridden two shorter ones & seems to have found some improvement. Any loses of much more than 3 minutes in the Giro ITT will, I think, be considered a blow to his overall chances.

His Astana looks equally as strong for the mountains as the Sky team. With Fredrik Kessiakoff as his super domestique & the talented young climber Fabio Aru to provide the final lead out in the mountains. Janez Brajkovic, Paolo Tiralongo & Alessandro Vanotti have a wealth of Grand Tour experience to back him up.

Some quotes from Wiggins at yesterdays press conference.

On Nibali. “I’ve studied him; I watched him closely in Trentino. He’s difficult to read: he doesn’t bluff, but he doesn’t show any emotion. He’s very crafty."

“There’s a lot at stake for him in this race. He’s the big Italian favorite and he’s trained for this. This is his event, his one big race.”

On the race: “But because of the things we’ve been doing this year, I’ve got more confidence, more belief in my climbing ability. I still don’t know at this stage whether I will stay with Nibali on some of those tough finishes, the real steep ones, but I know I will certainly not lose more than a handful of time — [it will be] seconds here and there, maybe 20 seconds if I’m on a bad day.

“But I’m pretty confident I can stay with him whatever he throws at me. That’s all I have to do, really, because I’m confident in time trials. From what I’ve seen, I can beat him. Looking back, I beat him by 6 minutes, 19 seconds at the Tour last year. Which is quite a lot. I only have to win the Giro by one second.”

Ryder Hesjedal was last years surprise winner. I think his odds pre race were in the region of 50/1. This year he's at 10/1.

A bit of an enigma is Ryder, he does his own thing. He disappears in the winter to Hawaii & returns to Girona in Spain for the race season. He builds slowly in performance for one objective, the overall results pre the Giro matter not one jot. This season has seen only the briefest of glimpses of potential form. Noteably his breakaway ride in Liège - Bastogne - Liège in support of Dan Martin. 2012 followed a similar build up, so who knows what level he will be at the start. Comments to the media after Romandie suggest he feels his form is better than last year.

This years Giro will be a tougher race. I think to make the podium will be tougher than last years win. His Garmin team has not yet confirmed their full rider lineup, but will include plenty of experienced riders including the veteran Christian Vande Velde.

Samuel Sanchez (Euskaltel - Euskadi). The Spaniard is now 35 & his last appearance at the Giro was in 2005.

2013 season start has not seen anything to suggest he'll be a contender for top 3. However, a fine 2nd in stage 5 of the Tour of the Basque Country shows on his day he still has the potential to be in the final overall mix. Top 5 is only possible if he finds the early season form he seemed to have last year before his crash in the TdF.

Another veteran looking to finish off his career with a final tilt at a GT podium is Cadel Evans.

It was a late decision from Evans to come to the Giro, & to also ride the TdF. Strange one that for a rider at the end of his career. Not sure what to make of it really. Is the Giro a build up for the TdF?

An up & down start to the season, has seen a promising start with a podium at Oman. Followed a lacklustre showing at Tirreno & Critérium International, & finally glimpses of the gritty performances of old at Trentino.

The BMC team although not confirmed yet, look to be short in experienced climbers for the mountains. 3rd spot on the podium is a possibility, but it will be a hell of an achievement, probably gained by his dogged determination & single minded approach to racing.

Next up, the Italian Michele Scarponi (Lampre). A previous winner (by default with the exclusion of Contador) in 2011, & 4th in 2012.

He will need to have the the climbing form he had in 2011 as he is likely to lose 3 minutes plus in the ITT. He'll be looking at the final week in the mountain stages to move up the overall GC standings. This season has seen some solid form in Catalunya particularly. Top 5, with a decent shot of the podium.

Loving the write-ups on the Giro contenders, Tonji. Keep them coming.

I've been interested by the odds offered by BetVictor on the Team Classification result. They have Sky favourite @ 1.95 and Astana second @ 2.88, with the rest of the teams apparently out of contention. According to WikiPedia, "in the Trofeo Fast Team classification, the times of the best three cyclists per team on each stage are added; the leading team is the team with the lowest total time". This would suggest, given the profile of this year's Giro parcours, that the team with the 3 best climbers and the 3 best TTists, will win the team classification. Although Sky and Astana definitely have claims, I do not think they deserve to be such overwhelming favourites. In fact, given Sky's siege tactics, their best climbers are more than likely to lose time to other teams in the mountain stages by first giving their all for Wiggins, and then by tactically slowing down the chasing pack. I can just as easily see teams like Blanco @ 14/1 (Kelderman (C/T), Kruijswijk (C/T), Gesink (C), Clement (T)) and Movistar @ 18/1 (Intxausti (C/T), Herrada (C), Dowsett (T), Cobo (C)) challenging for honours.

What are your thoughts?

Not had a look at the team classification. I don't disagree with your thoughts. Worth checking the regulations http://images2.gazzettaobjects.it/Speciali/Giroditalia/2012/en/Regulation.pdf as there seems to a team classification by points & time.

Heck, got a busy day. But over breakfast had a look at

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-d-italia/top-10-finish

Steven Kruijswijk 8/1 with PP. He was 8th in 2011. An improving rider, solid in the mountains. He will be supporting Robert Gesink, one of the most unpredictable GC contenders. Blanco need a good showing. A touch of value.

Tom Danielson again PP are out of line @ 8/1. He is a regular top 10 finisher in stage races. 4th in Romandie, he has some form coming into the Giro.

price disappeared sharpish

Been looking at the King of the Mountains betting

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-d-italia/king-of-the-mountains

My initial thoughts centred around Mauro Santambrogio. But after seeing the Vini Fantini team lineup including Stefano Garzelli & Matteo Rabottini, I've changed my thinking. Santambrogio has talked in the media about looking for a high placing in the overall. So it's possible his team mates will be called upon to support him. That lessens the chances of them getting into early breakaways & racking up points in the mountain stages.

Need a rethink

Stefano Pirazzi & his Bardiani Valvole team look to have set up with the goal of KOM jersey. Pirazzi was 2nd in that classification in 2012, seems to have reasonable form this year so 5/1 seems a fair price.

But I also think there is some EW value. 

Gianluca Brambilla (OPQS). With Cavendish looking for stage wins & the points jersey. Brambilla a climber will be given a free reign in the mountains to have a tilt at the KOM. The young Italian has some excellent experience of the Giro. In 2011 he was 4th in KOM on his first visit. 2012 he was 3rd in the young rider & 13th overall. He did not feature in the mountains class because he was riding in support of Prazzi & Pozzovivo. This season he seems to have been under raced, but I'm not so concerned as 2011 followed a similar pattern. Available at 80/1. In my mind he should be a 20/1 shot.

Finally the Team Columbia have come to light up the mountain stages with their traditional long range attacks. Two names in the frame, John Darwin Atapuma & Fabio Andres Duarte. Not much to choose between the two, but Atapuma looks to edge it in recent form. 22/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-d-italia/team-classification

Did you take the earlier prices cws?

I'm also thinking Garmin?

Quote from Movistar's Pablo Lastras in the Spanish media "The goal is to do as in 2011 and 2012: get wins, do a top ten and winning the team classification"

Good enough for me.

Giro d'Italia 2013: Insight in the first week

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqfjwH_9vpY

Stage 1.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQ27J3AWM2g

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-ditalia-stage-1/winner

Can't see past Cav winning, although the first stage is always nervous & the potential for crashes is higher in the first week.

Goss & Degenkolb, both have teams that will be able to provide a final lead out.

Outsiders, Sacha Modolo. He beat Cav in the early season Tour de San Luis. Mattia Gavazzi a winner in the warm up race Giro della Toscana.

Banzai outsider. Taylor Phinney is a better sprinter than 150/1.

I ended up taking the price offered on Blanco. In the case of Movistar, I've rationalised that they've committed too few of their leading lights to the Giro to demonstrate a serious conviction for team classification honours. Just one of Valverde, Quintana, Castroviejo or Costa would have made all the difference. In previous years, they've had a stronger team.

As for Garmin, the more I look at them, the more I think they look like the only team in the tour with no weak links. They're best @ 12/1 at the moment (10/1 on any of my accounts). I'd like a little more to convince me to take the plunge. Definitely think that you should.

Hmmmmm. I wasn't going to bet on today's cavalry charge, but if you're picking Phinney, I'm going to go for Robbie Hunter e/w @ 125/1. Defo a better sprinter than the price suggests.

Yep, I went Movistar & Garmin, 14/1 & 10/1.

Also like your Blanco bet, but wanted just two against the favourites.

That's the joy Cycling betting. You can have a short priced favourite, but so many scenarios are possible. Run the stage 100 times & you'd get 20 different winners.

I initially also thought a no bet stage, but looking at the prices I had to get involved.

Your bet on Robbie Hunter 125/1, I'd expect in the region of 30/1. Phinney again I'd think 30/1 is a fair price.

Good luck us  :)

(http://www.grassyknolltv.com/2013/giro-d-italia/pre-race-photos/page-03/200-PIC363382529.jpg)

Looking lean & mean at yesterdays Team Presentation. I hope Brad wins, I'm a fan, but have some lingering doubts.

Cav post race interview  :D

http://video.eurosport.se/cykel/giro-d-italia/2013/etappvinnarens-groda-fuck-this-is-this-live_vid275969/video.shtml

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1w_umi1uumc

Many of the teams have not done a full recon of the stage. Their first look will be this morning.

Technical & tricky in parts a small mistake will be costly, especially as 20 seconds or so will likely separate the top 5 teams.

Sky, Garmin, OGE & BMC are generally the better prepared teams for TTT. I don't see an awful lot of difference between them. I've gone for BMC, they start 3rd to last after their main rivals gaining a little advantage. In the betting 10/1 seems some value.

The guys at GCN are following some of the young riders at the Giro.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ul8ZOPjecJc

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpujqv76xbQ

Stage 3. My picks.

Nacer Bouhanni ftw.

Luca Paolini top 3.

Giacomo Nizzolo, outsider.

There are so many riders in the peloton capable of winning this sort of stage that I'm not going to bother trying to whittle it down to a select few. Any one of your selections, Tonji, could do the necessary today. Nonetheless, I have had a fun little bet on Betfair's place market, where I've plumped for Vicioso and Wyss, but I'm not expecting anything back. You'll be hearing a lot more from me when the Giro hits the mountains.

As for yesterday's TTT, the major disappointment for me was the performance of Betancur and his AG2R team. But this was more than made up for by the great ride by Vini Fantini and Santambrogio. I think I might be filling up with more Mauro later today ;) Also, Garmin should really have done better, but Blanco turned in a solid time. Movistar were the most impressive, but I've somehow managed to swerve them in the Team Classification (although I've got Intxausti to podium). Pity about Cobo getting injured, though, as it might hurt their overall chances.

By the way, I think your Spilak pick has gotten me restricted on PaddyPower!?!  ;carlocitrone;

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aorAionRUTA

Sky still keep pushing the boundaries of technology in cycling. The aero skin suits worn yesterday looked to have moulded aero foils on the back.

Hi cws

I didn't see yesterday live. Disappointed in BMC was hoping for better, not sure what happened there.

Liking the Movistar performance, it shows their ambition for the team classification at least. But early days.

The Spilak coup for me was with 365. I tend to spread cycling bets across 365, PP, Sky, Laddies & Unibet, not always taking the best price.

Todays stage bets was an hour research this morning over breakfast, not ideal....never enough time in the day with running my own business.

Keep your views coming cws, always interested.

Good luck.

Luca, bravo

What a fabulous stage. Love the attacking racing & bombing down the descents.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5W67iqRydE

highlights

(http://gallery.mailchimp.com/823d3a40b51c82f60f316baa5/images/6.jpg)

Stunning photo from today on the Amalfi Coast. I wanna go there.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6d1dOjHAjqg

The longest stage of the race, with a tough finish. I'm expecting a group of 20 or so riders to contest the finish.

Favourite: Mauro Santambrogio. His form still looks to be 100% & he must be confident of a high finish in the overall. Showed today he can mix it with the big name GC contenders & has a nifty turn of speed in a sprint. Almost certainly a stage he & his team have designs on winning. 6/1 available in a few spots.

Top 3 pick: Giampaolo Caruso team mate of Paolini, in good form, he could follow Luca's tactic today & attempt a solo break sometime on the final climb. 33/1 best price.

Outsider: Sky won't defend too strongly if a breakaway gets away with some riders that will not trouble the GC. I think this stage may see the Bardiani Valvole team try to nick a stage win. Stefano Pirazzi will be the go to man, 2.45 down on GC, he may get the opportunity. 33/1.

Banzai outsider: Przemyslaw Niemiec. Lampre are now likely to be looking for stage wins with Scarponi's crash today. Niemiec is an ideal rider for this stage so long as he has retained the form he showed in Trentino & Catalunya. 100/1 with our friends at PP  ;)

Well done, Tonji. Once again, knowledge is king. Apparently, according to post-race reports, Luca Paolini is a fantastic descender. Obviously this information would have been useful to know beforehand. Watching the highlights, I thought he might clip his head on someone's house, he was gripping those downhill corners so tightly.

It also goes to show that there's money to be made in this cycling game when the stage favourite, Bouhanni, finishes in the last group, 20 minutes behind the winner. To celebrate your run of results, I've maxed out on Niemiec ... a whopping £1.68 e/w. If he comes in, I will surely have my account closed down :) n1

I know I said that I would be putting more money on Santambrogio to podium, but after seeing Intxausti @ 100/1 (to win overall) with Betfred and BetVictor, I've had a slight change of heart. At this early stage of the Giro, Hesjedal looks to be the safe bet for 3rd place. However, I rate Intxausti as being just as capable a climber and time-triallist as the Canadian, and therefore have to jump all over the price offered. I just figure Santambrogio to lose too much time to the other overall contenders over the ITTs. Then again, I will probably eat my words after Mauro storms to victory tomorrow.

Close today, well ish!

Bardiani Valvole did get their win, but not with Pirazzi, who did attempt a breakaway, but was never likely to succeed. Others also were in the finishing bunch. But never really a sweat.

Value to be had, particularly in stage racing, the winner & 2nd started at over 50/1. Just needs research to find the edge against the bookies, & a good dose of luck.

Bouhanni again dragging in 17 mins down, either saving himself or just not feeling it?

Betting wise, I've not really looked at the overall since the start. I think I got, like yourself a small EW on Betancur. Some interest in the KOM, but that will play out in the final week I think. Team classification with Movistar & Garmin. Top 10 with Danielson.

Agree re Santambrogio, I think top 10 & one or two stage wins is the best he can hope for. I fear the tough stages ahead & even tougher last week could blunt his form. We'll see.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PhWxVNWxg8

Stage 5.

Conundrum for this stage is if Cavendish & the other big sprinters can get over the final climbs. All of which trundled in 17 mins or so down today. Bookies had Cav at 3/1 early but has drifted to 16/1. Frankly I don't have a view yet, tomorrow morning may yield more info but I'm unlikely to be around then.

Only bet for me. Oscar Gatto, purely on price 100/1 EW, & the finish at first glance looks to have the parcours of a one day classic, in which he has had some useful results in this year.

Prices could change dramatically if positive noises come from the sprinter teams & the weather is warm & dry. Also of note, OPQS, OGE & Argos - Shimano riders looked to be saving energy today. Cav wants the red points jersey back, but certainly stage 6 will be better for him.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aO2Wuawfcb8

Stage 6.

Likely/certainly a bunch sprint, baring crashes.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-ditalia-stage-6/winner

Cav too short as expected.

EW bet for me is Mattia Gavazzi, 28/1. He has been pedaling at the back of the race, in fact he is plum last overall. I'm hoping he has been saving his energy for this stage after missing out in stage 1 having been caught in the crash.

How some of the young riders are getting on.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yM_5ju1miR4

EW bet for me is Mattia Gavazzi, 28/1. He has been pedaling at the back of the race, in fact he is plum last overall. I'm hoping he has been saving his energy for this stage after missing out in stage 1 having been caught in the crash.

He saved a bit, but not enough. 5th

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujhWkJhErAk

Stage 7.

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-04/Giro-dItalia-Stage-7-1366543534.jpg)

Heck, this stage is difficult to call. If it was a one day race Nibali would be favourite imo. But he is hampered by the following days TT, however he may have the opportunity late on if Wiggins gets isolated on the final climbs. Hesjedal & Evans may also fancy this stage to put the other GC riders under pressure.

Equally a good chance of breakaway succeeding is on the cards. Dilemmas a plenty.

Only bet at the moment is Rubiano Chavez. He is a specialist on this type of parcours. He happily rolled in 6 minutes down today, a good sign perhaps that stage 7 is a target.

More pondering needed.

Samuel Sanchez is probably only now looking for stage wins. Over a minute behind. This stage looks as good as any for him. EW 33/1.

With Katusha & Luca Paolini looking to defend the Maglia Rosa. His prime support, Giampaolo Caruso may have a chance if they consider the best form of defence is attack. Only 36 seconds down on the overall, I've been impressed. 66/1 feels a decent EW shot.

Looking forward to this stage it could be manic.

Yesterday had Sir W slip sliding away out of the top 20, down 1.32.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ke0xD-DABDs

Wiggins is an overwhelming favourite for this stage, he'll will need minutes to get Maglia Rosa. We'll see today if there are any after effects from yesterday & if he has the fight still in him.

Fancy that Nibali & Kessiakoff will be in top 5 todays ITT.

Today's ITT in the Giro was a real eye opener, and with the high mountain stages fast approaching, I think I now have all the information I need to make a few recommends. Tonji, it looks like you were right to have Nibali as the pre-race favourite, as I can't see anyone beating him now. He looked very comfortable in the time-trial, and has the beating of Wiggins (and everyone else) in the Alps and the Dolomites.

The markets I'm interested in are the Team Classification (time) and the Young Rider's Classification:

In the Young Rider's Classification, the standings are as follows (with best odds in brackets):
1.   Wilco Kelderman (BLA)   29:50:23        (4/1)
2.   Rafal Majka (TST)            0:00:43        (3/2)
3.   Fabio Aru (AST)              0:01:05        (16/1)
4.   Carlos Betancur (AG2R)    0:02:42        (2/1)

I am really surprised by these odds, and feel that the bookies have over-priced Kelderman and Aru purely on the basis that they are domestiques for their team leaders (Gesink and Nibali respectively), whereas Majka and Betancur have others riding for them. The fact is that Betancur was very disappointing yesterday, in a time-trial that should have suited his limited TT talents. Personally, I was expecting more of a Santambrogio type of performance. Perhaps his outstanding pre-season/Classics form has finally caught up with him, and his legs are feeling a little tired. If that is the case, he has no chance in the high mountains ... and 3 minutes is a rather large gap already. Majka, on the other hand, is in good shape. Although beaten by Kelderman and Aru in the time-trial, it wasn't a whipping, and he has shown that he can handle himself in the mountain stages. The thing that bothers me about his status as 3/2 favourite though, is that he will pretty much be riding the mountains on his own, as Team Saxo-Tinkoff are weak. Add to this the fact that he isn't an obviously better climber than Kelderman or Aru, and the head scratching really begins.

Obviously the bookies think that Kelderman will sacrifice his race for Gesink. But this isn't necessarily so. Gesink has really impressed me thus far, and has a real chance to podium in (if not win) the Giro. But Blanco are strong, with Kelderman, Kruijswijk and Clement all capable climbers. I seriously doubt that the team are hitching all their bets on the Maglia Rosa (not with Nibali in the shape he is in), and if Kelderman is up there with Gesink in the mountains, they will probably instruct him to fight on for both the Team and Young Rider's classifications. Sure, he is young and unproven, but I'm pretty confident in his form and ability, and recommend backing him @ 4/1, while dutching Aru @ 16/1 (he is, after all, the best climber out of the 4, but might sacrifice his race for Nibali).

Next up is the Team Classification (time (not points)). The standings are:
1.   Astana                    88:40:51                   (6/1)
2.   Blanco                      0:00:34                   (7/1)
3.   Sky                          0:02:06                   (EVS)
4.   Lampre-Merida           0:04:55                   (5/1)

No surprises who I'm going for here then. Blanco have the strongest team over all disciplines in this year's Giro. Period. Sky, on the other hand, have the best quality riders. Astana have a lot of riders with problems. I'm not too sure what Lampre are even doing in this discussion.

If you said to me that Sky was going to ride the rest of the Giro as individuals, then I would agree that evens was a fair price, and would call them favourites. The fact is that Sky are not interested in the team classification competition. They want to win the pink jersey, and Wiggins is their man for the job. This means that their tactic over the mountain stages will be to ride the other teams into the ground, so that they cannot break from the lead group. It's a pity for Henao and Uran really, having to sacrifice their races, because they're both in sublime form, but they'll get their chances in the future. Wiggins still has another ITT to contest, and he will be given a certain amount of leeway till then. I'm afraid that, based on current evidence, he will struggle in the mountains (especially if it continues to rain), and will hold his teammates back (like with Froome in the TDF last year).

Astana also have good climbers. Unfortunately, Kessiakoff seems to have caught a bug, and has not yet recovered fully. And Tiralongo has apparently injured his knee. On the flip side, Aru is sublime and Kangert has impressed. However, with Nibali now in the ascendency, you can bet that Astana will not be concerned with anything other than securing the Maglia Rosa, and will forfeit their domestiques' ambitions accordingly. This is not to say that Astana winning the Team Classification is outside the realms of possibility. I just think that Blanco are in better shape, more well-rounded and better motivated to prove themselves as the best team in the Giro. I've already backed them @ 10/1 last week. I've now added a decent sum @ 7/1.

Your thoughts, Tonji...

Really interesting post cws, thanks.

Young riders, a few of my thoughts.

Rafal Majka, has a couple of Vueltas under his belt, a big advantage over his rivals. 2012 he was 32nd, top Saxo rider after Contador. I'd see him as having a more solid final week than the other three. Agree re his team not as strong, but he looks like he'll be able to make the final selection in the high mountains, but maybe not win. 3/2 is probably too short, but I'd have him as favourite.

Betancur does to me look like he could crack. Being able to recover day after day while riding at the front is generally found after two or three GTs. Although in 2011 he had a decent final week at the Giro.

I'd predict (but based on a little research over coffee this morning):

Majka
Kelderman
Betancur
Aru.

 

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRntkjd9_Fs

Stage 9.

No bets for me, not really had a look at the betting. Ahead of a rest day, a breakaway may succeed. Betting would be more a lottery than ever, any of 40 riders could podium today.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-ditalia-stage-9/winner

Bookies favourite is Visconti at 11/1.

Edited: thrown a dart at Rubiano (again)

Team Classification.

Lampre won the team class in 2012, with Scarponi & Cunego, 4th & 6th.

I wouldn't write them off. Scarponi certainly fancies his chances for top 3, but suspect top 5 is achievable. Niemiec, is the best form of his life. Currently in 9th overall, I'd have him as a solid top 10 finisher.

Re Sky, currently 3 riders in top 10. Bet depends on their tactics to get Wiggins in Maglia Rosa. Will they sacrifice Uran & Henao to achieve it? They will have to change from a team that defends the lead to offensive tactics that put Nibali & Astana under pressure & I'm not sure they can rely on doing it in the mountains. Stage 12 looks like it could be an opportunity to attack ahead of the big mountains.

But agree Blanco look better & looks a good bet @ 7/1. With 4 riders in top 30 & as you say Gesink looking in top shape.

I had bet Movistar (now looks dead in the water) & Garmin. Garmin could still be in with a shout, but requires Stetina & Danielson to have a strong final week. I'm hopeful.

Weather needs to improve for Wiggins as he seems to have lost all confidence in the wet.

Wiggins looks shot mentally and we haven't even got to the hills yet. How he thinks he  should be team leader ahead of Froome for TdF is laughable.

Sky need to go for broke imo and try to smash the peleton in first couple of mountain stages

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LVhJJ-FUUM

Great to see Alex Dowsett win the ITT, he made a brave move to leave Sky last year, nice to see it pay off.

I don't know how quickly a rider can regain confidence, maybe a few dry days in the mountains.

Rumours that Henao & Uran will be given a free roll to attack at the first opportunity.

Plenty of drama still to come, I'm lovin it.

A week in & today is a rest day.

Tomorrow, stage 10.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tG3pr_O342k

Giro proper starts here in the high mountains. It's a tough stage, but it'll be the first of six extreme days in the mountains over the next two weeks.

A photo gallery review of stages 1-9.

http://cyclingtips.com.au/2013/05/colours-of-the-giro-stages-1-to-9/

A few comments from Wiggins in the media:

"Let's be honest. I descended like bit of a girl really after the crash... Not to disrespect girls, I have one at home. But that's life and we have to push on and deal with the disappointments."

On Nibali: "He will continue to ride aggressively. I can't see him trying to defend 30 seconds from now until Brescia,"

On Cadel: "Cadel is the best I've seen him since he won the Tour. He is the danger-man in that position. He showed [in the TT] he is in good shape."

On tomorrows stage: "It will be one of the toughest finishes of this Giro, that's for sure. The race could tip upside down again."

Weather forecast is not good for the next week

http://www.ilmeteo.it/meteo-sport#giro

Time constraints today & not had time to look closely at the stage betting.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-ditalia-stage-10/winner

Breakaway has a chance if none of the riders are a threat. Colombians are likely to make a mark now we are in the big mountains, but which one, Atapuma?

If a GC group make the final climb, who will be looking for the stage win. Betancur looks strong still, & is always looking to attack when possible. Pozzovivo & Santambrogio will fancy their chances. Pozzovivo perhaps with better chances as he knows the area well.

Outsider, Gianluca Brambilla, he has shown his form has returned in finishing with the first group on the previous stage. Still think he is looking for stage win in the high mountains & a go at the KOM.

I haven't found any OOL prices for Stage 10, but thought I might give my two cents worth anyway:

I can't really see beyond Santambrogio in this first of the high mountain stages. Vini Fantini have had an unsuccessful Giro so far, and Mauro will be keen to rectify that. One on one, up a decent gradient, he has the beating of anyone in the field ... even Nibali. I have had £10 e/w on him @ 6/1 (BetVictor), the e/w portion being my saver in case Nibali steps up, or a breakaway is allowed too much rope. I've also gone for Henao @ 16/1 (BetVictor), gambling on the rumour that Sky will allow him to attack Nibali on the climb up Altopiano del Montasio. Nothing like a 20% ramp to get the Colombian in the mood.

Yep, can't disagree cws. An open stage for sure. Pozzovivo edges it for me purely on his local knowledge & perhaps being less marked than Santambrogio.

Weather is set fine today I believe, so should look spectacular.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oy7RL11Z1U

Are they not worth betting @6.5/1 and 10.5/1 respectively?

I guess if you took the view they are the two favourites, but I see this stages as too open to call. Circa 30-40% chance a breakaway succeeds imo. 10 GC riders with a chance, but really unknown form coming out of a rest day & into the high mountains.

I've taken Pozzovio @ 18/1 last night, thinking that price has some value considering his local knowledge. I'm also liking Brambillia @ 66/1, good chance he can make it in a breakaway group, but if not he should be able to compete with the final GC group.

Just the way I approach stage betting Dubai, not a lot of maths, just my opinion, based on some knowledge & race scenarios.

Well Pozzovivo gave it a go, but never looked like he could make it stick. Brambillia, over 20 minutes back  :(

Unlucky cws, wrong Sky Colombian. I can't make up my mind if Santambrogio was hanging on, or biding his time for another day?

Betancur is still frisky, two 2nds. Tomorrow maybe one better?

Garmin have imploded, riders stayed to support Hesjedal. Team classification zero chance now, & Danielson bet for top 10 decimated.  ;grr;

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXP7_2cSCX8

Work a bit busy to look at betting opportunities.

Anyone else fire away.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6n-KDQ0ZIcg

stage 12.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xY_g2pe2Zzk

Longest stage of the race at 254 km. With more rain forecast & tough mountain stages over the weekend I'd think there is a >50% chance of a breakaway succeeding.

Plenty of big prices available for this open stage. I've looked for Italians looking for the opportunity for the stage win & well out of GC contention. However with many sick riders & teams its a pick-em

Gatto, was sick earlier in the race, but finished in the main bunch today so hoping he's recovered. 33/1

Pozzato, must purely be racing for a stage win, this looks like an opportunity. 33/1

Nizzolo, 4th today & stage 1. He's a decent sprinter who doesn't suffer in the hills. 66/1

Cav clocked up his 101st pro win with a gutsy ride over the final climbs when most of the other sprinters were dropped.

Nizzolo weighed in nicely with an impressive 2nd.

Gatto was in the final attack 20km to go, but that always doomed.

Pozzato, puzzled as usual, looking like he was going to get dropped on the run in, but was 8th & in the mix  :dontask:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuipmFVh3PA

Some stuff about the rain on stage 12, & Brian Holm talking about "fat boy" Cav.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuKzTQwAA6k

Stage 14, back in the high mountains. Snow is forecast, so there could be a late decision on route changes.

The initial breakaway group is likely to include Pirazzi looking to protect his KOM jersey. The make up & size of this group will set the tone of the stage.

Favourites in the GC riders must be Betancur. He has great form, but has yet to win a race this year. He'll be motivated to change that.

Betancur's teammate Pozzovivo attacked in stage 10 but never made it stick. I'd read his bike was wrongly geared. If that was the case he can possibly use Betancur's inevitable attack to launch a counter that may be successful 1km from the finish.

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-05/Giro-dItalia-Stage-14-1367657390.jpg)

Sky now pin hopes of overall with Uran. They will certainly attack over the next two days, but he won't find it easy to get away. Henao or Cataldo may get the chance on the final climb.

Gesink & Santambrogio have both been solid without showing any attacking intent. The next two stages could be the time for them to move into the top 3.

Nibali only has a 41 second lead over Evans. With time bonuses at the finish, he will want to gain valuable time without risking too much. Tactically he's not made a mistake yet, if its dry I think he'll go on the offensive if he sees the opportunity.

Outsider. Stefano Garzelli, a past KOM winner. He's not shown much so far, but the old war horse will be looking for one last Giro stage win.

Sundays stage over Mont Cenis & up the Col du Galibier is almost certainly going to be altered due to snow & avalanche warnings  :(

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BKfs-hOCEAEzFJX.jpg:large)

Cheers for the continued updates Tonji - a very enjoyable read/watch as usual!

Well done, Tonji. Once again your predictions were in the money. Hope you had a wedge on Nizzolo e/w.

For today's stage, I'm betting against a breakaway again, since they don't seem to be very successful this year (touch wood). Given that Nibali doesn't need to risk an attack today (better left for tomorrow), and that Uran and Evans will be heavily marked, I'm going with either Betancur or Santambrogio to win, with Henao as a wildcard. I should probably dutch the three of them, but I much prefer making it an equal stake with the reward being greater the bigger the winner's odds. I still feel Henao owes me for the other day ... and I am seriously tilting.

Again, the bookies don't seem to have missed a trick, with the only reasonably attractive odds being for Majka to win @ 33/1 (e/w 1-2-3). Although he impressed the other day, I'm more confident that he'll finish in 4th or 5th place, rather than on the podium. I just feel that the competition is too good. I'll be more than happy for him to prove me wrong, though (since my Kelderman/Aru bet is dead in the water).

I'm really looking forward to today's racing, and can't wait to see what Sir Wiggo's demise does for my Blanco bet  ;bigadz;. I feel sorry for him, but I still hope that his chest infection is contagious.

ty Vic.

Hi cws

Yes <10% breakaway succeeds today. With tomorrow likely to have a reduced stage, the GC men needed to sort it out on todays final climb.

Last night I had 365 open when the stage betting was published. Betancur was 7/1 until I clicked the bet & it had changed to 4/1  :( So I got Pozzovivo @ 11/1, that'll teach em!

I think Henao or Cataldo  can play a big part today. If Cataldo has recovered from illness I'm pretty sure he'll be asked to repeat the ride from last years Vuelta where he won that epic mountain stage. Small bet with BetV @ 100/1 win only.

As you say the bookies are pretty much in line. Maybe Niemiec & Inxausti have a touch of EW value, but both are probably top 5 at best. Also feel Gesink could put in a great ride, no evidence other than some hints coming out of Blanco.

Update on todays stage. The Sestriere climb has been taken out due to bad weather.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BKiowB9CYAA4_OP.png:large)

Finish is still the long climb up to Jafferau, but fresher legs for a larger % of the peloton. Advantage Nibali & Astana in being able to control the stage.

No TV pictures, maybe see the last 100m as riders appear out of the mist.

Thankfully twitter feed keeps me updated.

Rumours tomorrows stage could be cancelled.

Santambrogio & Nibali 1 & 2. Strongest today.

A reasonably successful day today, with Santambrogio winning the stage, and improving his chances for a podium finish. Still early doors though. As for Blanco, however, they now have to decide what they want out of this Giro. With Gesink struggling out of the top 10 today, they managed to lose a lot of time in the team classification, by sacrificing Kelderman, Kruijswijk and Garate for their team leader. If they (and I) want to win anything this year, now's the time to cut Gesink loose.

Nice going cws. Nibbles, Santa & Beta have proved to be the class climbers of the race.

Did you have Beta for the young rider class? He's just 7 sec behind Majka, whose Saxo team are now down 3 riders.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rCiYKwM_j0

At the moment the route is originally as planned but without the last 4km

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-04/Giro-dItalia-Stage-15-1366543615.jpg)

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-ditalia-stage-15/winner

My sweat for the stage. Not my work, but a tip from a mate who's well clued up. The Colombia team always look to be in the breaks in the big mountains. Jarlison Pantano, available at 150/1.

http://www.raisport.rai.it/dl/raisport/direttaGiro2013.html

No action yet, but Italian commentary is fast & furious!  ;D

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKaTscVQoHM

Todays highlights.

Rest day today.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BKs14ugCEAIKbWF.jpg:large)

Giro is into the final week & it gets tougher still.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grZeeISH3eI

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvdPDOLWiUs

A really open stage with a >50% chance of a breakaway succeeding. A good betting stage to throw a few darts. Winners are often in 50/1+ range.

The final week & some teams will be looking to rescue something from the Giro.

With Gesink dropping away in the mountains & with it any GC hopes, Blanco will be looking for a stage win. Stef Clement is likely to be given the go ahead to get in the break. A strong ITT shows he has some strength & form.

Team Colombia will be active, but I've not had any luck picking which one makes the crucial break. Anyone of Atapuma, Duarte, Pantano or Chalapud.

Cannondale, I've been impressed with Damiano Caruso, but at only 10 minutes down I doubt he'd get any leeway. Cristiano Salerno, Cameron Wulf, or Jose Sarmiento are all good candidates.

Euskaltel - Euskadi have looked to get riders away. Egoi Martinez is the usual suspect.

Garmin do have a stage win already but will want to be involved. I'd be looking at Danielson who had been going ok, however he was was 27 minutes down on the last stage, either he's sick or saving energy.

The most attacking team has probably been Vini Fantini. Despite having Santambrogio in the mix for the podium they seem to always get someone in the break. Di Luca, Rabottini or Garzelli look decent for this stage.

Pieter Weening of Orica GreenEdge has been having ago, but has not made an attempt stick. Maybe it's the turn of Jens Keukeleire.

RadioShack still have the full compliment of riders. Tiago Machado is a bit of a breakaway specialist.

A rider showing some decent form of late is Franco Pellizotti of the Androni team, but perhaps too close to the GC to get any freedom.

The days break has formed. It includes Damiano Caruso at only 10 mins down. Interested to see how Astana & other teams work on this stage to bring them back.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Su8Gw3P-hJk

Cracking stage today. All seemed to be racing to protect their positions in the top ten. The break was never going to stay away with Caruso in it. Pirazzi looking to be still full of energy to defend the KOM jersey. Movistar having a great Giro.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L36WIjuUYtg

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-04/Giro-dItalia-Stage-17-1366543636.jpg)

Interesting stage. Looks on paper a bunch sprint stage, but in the final week of a GT it's more open than first assumed.

The bookies have a tempting 4/1 Cavendish. If his team work as well as they did on stage 13, I don't see why Cav cannot make it 5 wins. However, the short climb could have the sprinters in trouble if like today the GC riders attack with any severity.

Nizzolo has given me some decent profit. Quoted in Italian media after todays stage that he'll be looking to beat Cav tomorrow! you can get 25/1.

Two outsiders.

Filippo Pozzato, lives locally & has mentioned in the media he'll give this stage a go. 33/1.

A possible candidate to be in the early breakaway & another local rider is Marco Marcato. He'll know the area better than anyone. 35/1

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J43jIbpGXq8

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-04/Giro-dItalia-Stage-18-ITT-1366543649.jpg)

Stage 18. ITT.

Nibali has been without doubt the strongest climber & is favourite. I'd have Evans closer than many believe. His time splits on the last uphill sector in the first TT where better than anyone.

Only had the briefest of looks at the markets & can't see any obvious value. With Nibali & Evans a likely 1-2, leaving one spot in the Top 3 market. The only hint of value is Intxausti @ 20/1 he is a better TT than the price suggests (I'd think 11/1 is about right). Movistar are on a roll with results & confidence is high, he'll also be looking to protect his top ten position in GC. Probably still not a bet.

No Gavia or Stelvio climbs for Giro Stage 19 tomorrow

(https://o.twimg.com/2/proxy.jpg?t=HBgpaHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0cGljLmNvbS9zaG93L2xhcmdlL2Nzbzl5aC5qcGcUkAMUrAIAFgASAA&s=jTifxLjl5QTNLFr_pfUg4tQL1fUA65271XM6YSKSJDo)

Nibali was dominant today & now with 4.02 lead over Evans.

Cadel's comment on twitter. Uphill TT done here at the Giro: Nibali in a class of his own. Evans -if I may say so myself- abysmal.... #giro #goodtraining

Not sure of what to make of tomorrows stage. Weather forecast is pretty awful with minus temperatures. Bearing that in mind & with the Maglia Rosa pretty much settled. I'm inclined to think the battle for the stage win may come down to either a small breakaway group or Betancur & Majka attacking on the final climb. However with small time gaps from 2nd through to 10th I guess it could equally turn into a chaotic free for all.

In overnight ponder mode!

Todays stage cancelled due to snow.

Unheard of back in the day  :D

(http://giroforghisallo.gazzetta.it/files/2012/05/storia-freddo-large.jpg)

With todays stage cancellation & tomorrow not looking great. The points classification looks almost certainly to be won by Cavendish.

I don't have a Bwin account, but they still have Cav @ 2/5

Cracking picture Tonji, these boys have it too pampered nowadays  ;)

Always makes me wonder if the points for the sprinters need looking at, I mean Cav has won 4 stages + intermediates and Evans only 4 points down

Are you old enough to remember Andy Hampsten winning on the Gavia in '88. Brutal!

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_atrK-jBKJKY/S_-y4kgfy0I/AAAAAAAAL6k/LHkGwPg560o/s1600/gavia+1988.png)

Not had any time to preview stage 20. Maybe have a look in the morning.

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-05/Giro-dItalia-Stage-20-1369401248.jpg)

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-05/Giro-dItalia-Stage-20-1367657779.jpg)

The final mountain stage & reports on twitter that snow is falling high up & commentators are struggling to get to the summit in cars!

Not a day for betting imo, but hope Betancour can take the win he deserves.

So does this mean that Cavendish will win the Points Classification?

Really a case for Cav to survive today, he does not like hills. But likely he'll still be in the red jersey after the stage today. Best price today is 1/20.

If all goes to plan he'll be 1/100 at the end of today, with just the formality of Sundays stage to Breschia where he'll be odds on to win the stage.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uX3F7jJJqtA

Another behind the scenes video.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgyaZwUQrbc

Despite being a massive fan, don't think I'd be out in those conditions.

I'll be in a local Italian café this afternoon for the F1 & of course sweating Cav in the final Giro stage.

(http://e2.365dm.com/13/05/660x350/13c_2946077.jpg?20130526144726)

What a legend.

Was visiting relatives so only had updates on bbc site to go on. Crazy they didn't know which lap was for the intermediary.

Tour had two outstanding riders in Nibali & Cav, for very differing reasons

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MP1_QrrK1U

Highlights from yesterday, in Italian but you get the gist. I like OPQS boys giving a polite warning to the breakaway, there is a certain etiquette on a final stage of a GT to be played out!

Nibali was in a different class. I can't remember him being in any sort of trouble all race. I doubt even a fully fit Wiggins would have been within a couple of minutes. Looks like he'll be riding the Vuelta & will be targeting the Worlds in Florence.

Big shame the weather became the talking point, particularly in the final mountain stages. Doubt the result would be any different, but would have like to have seen more of Betancur & Majka who both impressed greatly. Ones to watch for the future.

Cavendish has about a month to rest up & prepare for the TdF. Another 5 stage wins & the points jersey? Certainly will be tougher with Greipel & Sagan in the field. I'd not bet against him.

Quite week now. Next major race is Critérium du Dauphiné, 2-9 June. Followed by Tour de Suisse, 8-16 June. All building up to the Tour de France, 29 June-21 July.

Agree

Nibali has looked in a class of his own and riding within himself, when he opened up no one got close. Shame he's not at the TdF this year, the course would suit.

Really hard to tell with Cav. Sky obv were not interested in the sprints last year and Cav was a bit off form but still got 3 wins. He has a team built around him this year and is back on his favoured Specialized. Against that Sagan looks an absolute beast this year and is bang on form.
Lining up to be an awesome tour for both the yellow and green jersey.

Critérium du Dauphiné

(http://cdn2.sbnation.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/13873533/8856853875_f5e04bdf38_b_large.0_standard_730.0.jpg)

http://www.letour.fr/us/homepage_horscourseCDD.html

A mountainous parcours, with a flat ITT stage. Ideal preparation for the TdF contenders. Headed by Froome & Contador.

Really can't see past Froome winning. His form all season has been top class & has the support of a strong Sky team.

In theory Contador should be Froome's closest rival. However, his season until now has been patchy. I'd expect him to be up a level, but perhaps not 100% yet.

In fact all the big names should be close to 100% with the TdF only weeks away. The battle for the 3rd podium spot is close with maybe 5 or 6 names. Sanchez is in race fit condition, with a strongish last week at the Giro. If the weather is fine he may be the surprise. Jurgen van den Broeck has always gone well at the Dauphiné always around the top five, suspect this year could be better.

Outsider, Michal Kwiatkowski. Fantastic in the Ardennes classics & strong in Algarve & Terreno. Impressive, but at only 22 difficult to maintain that standard.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/dauphine-libere/winner

Stage 1.

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-05/Criterium-du-Dauphine-Stage-1-1369332746.jpg)

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-05/Criterium-du-Dauphine-Stage-1-1369332763.png)

With two category 1 & a category 2 climb the stage looks initially a climbers stage. However, opportunities on descents for riders to regain the peloton make it a more open stage. The final looks like more of a uphill drag, suitable for the likes of EBH, Meersman & Gavazzi. All fast on the line in an uphill finish & all having strong recent results.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/dauphine-libere/dauphine-libere-stage-1/winner

Some value with Skybet going EW top 3 1/3 odds.

Meersman got a 2nd today. But is now too short for stage 2 that favours a fearless descender. Sanchez fits the bill.

Wrong, final descent not too difficult & technical & final climbs didn't drop all the sprinters. Viviani wins.

Stage 4 is a 32.5km flat ITT. Normally Tony Martin is an overwhelming favourite for these stages. However, he has been suffering stomach problems the past few days.

With those doubts Froome should probably be favourite imo.

Michal Kwiatkowski finish 2nd to Martin in Algarve over a similar distance. 22/1 is decent EW value.

It's time for another time trial ... and once again the man to beat is Tony Martin. However, given the stomach problems alluded to by Tonji above, everything might not be such smooth sailing for the odds-on favourite.

By now, people should know that I love betting against Sky, and even though I pick Froome to win the Criterium du Dauphine (and the Tour de France), I've always found him vulnerable to a little bit of inconsistency in the TT. The same goes for Porte. This opens the door for a few speculative e/w bets.

Top of my list then is Michal Kwiatkowski (same as Tonji), although he is now a less-attractive 18/1. He gets most of my money. Another two names I fancy are Stef Clement (20/1) - good TT form at the moment (although might be tired, and usually better on a lumpy course) - and Lieuwe Westra (25/1) - solid, experienced time-triallist (although had a bad crash on Stage 2).

Names I've passed on are Michael Rogers (too old, past his best), Sylvain Chavanel (surely top 10, but no podium), Rohan Dennis (possible upset, but too inexperienced), Marco Pinotti (lost me money already this year), and Jonathan Castroviejo (will probably kick myself for leaving him out... hope he finishes 4th).

Also, I had to put some ice-cream money on Andrew Talansky, because I'm never going to see him at odds of 300/1 again. Of course, he is still recovering from an illness, but there's always the chance he'll wake up feeling right as rain ;pokergods;

I'm pretty sure Kwiatkowski is looking to get one of the three remaining spots in the OPQS TdF team. A top 5 in the ITT will probably secure that. He's certainly motivated. My only bet on this stage & I've had a small EW on him for the overall win.

Tweet from OPQS that Martin "He trained this morning, felt ok. Ready for the stage"  :( bugger!

looks like a win for Martin.

Some interesting times coming in!

Can't complain too much, although I made no money today. My analysis was there or thereabouts, but obviously I would have been happier if Dennis and Kwiatkowski had switched places. Well done to the young Australian. Onwards and upwards ... literally.

Good stuff cws. Will have a closer look at the times later, but I think they may be revealing for the prospects of some in the TdF.

I remember earlier in the week Vaughters hinting on twitter that one of his riders is in top top shape....guessed that with Talansky sick he must have been referring to Dennis. But like yourself thought a top 10 was as good as he could expect.  ;grr;

Dauphine ITT suggests that Roland, Valverde, Contador, Rodriguez and Van den Broeck still have work to do. We'll see how their climbing legs are tomorrow.

Stage 5.

Not looked  :dontask:

cws any thoughts?

Gresy-sur-Aix to Valmorel. It all comes down to the final 12.7km with an average gradient of 7%. With Team Sky on the case, and their man in second place, you can forget about a breakaway succeeding. Chris Froome loves this sort of finish and is justifiably the favourite. However, I am getting pretty excited by this stage, as I think some of the pricing is way out of line.

First off, Alberto Contador @ 16/1 (Bet365 and WillHill)) is incredible. Sure, he had a terrible time-trial, and he kept wiping his nose like he was sick (apparently suffering from allergies), but the fact is that the man is the best climber in the field. And this sort of long, arduous, energy-sapper suits him to a T. Add to that the fact that he always seems to bounce back from a bad stage, and a decent e/w bet here is a no-brainer. I can understand Rodriguez being at shorter odds than him, but Valverde, Rolland, Sanchez and Moreno? Madness! I don't care if he is sick ... or if he has a broken leg, for that matter.

Next up, Jose Herrada (100/1 @ Paddy Power) is amazing e/w value. Sure, he'll have Valverde's back, but he is one of the best ascenders in the field on his day. And, to be honest, Valverde was very disappointing in the TT yesterday, ending his chances of a top-three finish, so Movistar might just have other plans. A podium might be out of his reach today, but at 100/1, he is worth the stretch. Just think back to all the stage wins that Movistar had at the Giro, and you'll see there's value to be had here.

My last tip is my new e/w friend Michal Kwiatkowski. I don't expect him to win this stage (although at 100/1 @ WillHill I would usually be tempted). He's the sort of climber that manages to hang on to a group, never launching any attacks ... just sticking around. Very capable, but not one for the podium presentation at the end of the day. But even though I'm not backing him myself in tomorrow's stage, that won't stop me recommending him to the speculative punter, because his odds are way OOL. The truth is, I've got too much invested in him already. And I've just lumped some more on at Coral (25/1 to win overall, e/w 1/5 odds). That's effectively 4/1 for a podium (once you subtract the win stake) when Betfair have him at 1.03 (albeit illiquid). Get some!

Cheers cws.

I'm out all day, so a speculative 100/1 EW on Kwiatkowski. Agree a possible tag on behind Frome to nick a 3rd. It does look a stage for the Sky boys to show their strength & throttle the life out of the peloton. Apparently PP initially priced Froome @ 8/1  :o but was quickly suspended. 9/4 best this morning, rarely back favourites but on today.

Good luck with the bets.

Haven't seen any of the cycling on tv this week. It's on at bad time for me. Been too busy with house move stuff to even look at the markets, but who the hell thought Contador was 16/1. Woulda snapped that if I saw it.

I reckon Contador holding a bit back for TdF, he loves the game play of cracking riders in climbs

Froome looks to have his measure at the moment. But over three week Grand Tour...., we'll see. I'd still have Froome as strong favourite.

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-05/Criterium-du-Dauphine-Stage-6-1369332946.jpg)

Stage is set for sprinters who can climb. Its possible QPQS will set a fast pace to drop the fat boys with chubby legs (Bouhanni & Viviani).

This leaves the likes of Meersman, EBH & Gazzavi to fight out the sprint. Gavazzi is always under the radar with the bookies despite some strong results on these types of stages. He must be in decent shape, coming in ahead of his fellow sprinters on todays mountain stage. I had 50/1, but think Hills are still at 40/1 & seems decent value imo.

I'm also on Michael Matthews. OGE are looking for wins & Matthews is the best bet with a strong 2nd on stage 3, just mistiming the sprint. 18/1 ftw in a few places.

the last 5km, vegas.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jqv3a_NfSmU

Contador out to 9/2 for the Tour de France!


Worth a punt?

Been pondering what price Contador is value. Froome looks near 100%, I'd say Contador is perhaps in 90% shape, he generally will be 100% come the start. Still Froome fav for me. But 4/1 or better looks decent.

Incidentally, the probable TdF Saxo team is looking strong for support for the mountain stages. 

http://cyclingtips.com.au/2013/06/the-secret-pro-3/

If your not aware already of the Secret Pro, worth a read.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/contador-im-where-i-want-to-be

Cheers Tonji
Froome looked very good, like he didn't panic when Contador went and just reeled him in.

I'm with you, Froome is an outstanding favourite for TdF.
Though I think Contador underestimates him. He had his number at the ?vuelta last year, but Froome was shot from the TdF

Think that 9-2 looks a bit of value, obv better e/w prospects now wiggo not riding

Tour De Suisse starts tomorrow.

Was hoping to see Tejay Van Garderen at 3/1 but only see 365 with 9/4. Probably needs the win if BMC are to back him ahead of Evans in the TdF.

Rui Costa, last years winner, & having a solid season should be a firm top 3 with a decent team around him.

Ryder Hesjedal @ 40/1 could be value, but we are in the dark on how well he has recovered from his Giro illness. If he some how has top form that price will look a steal.

Was hoping to find a way to back Simon Spilak, but the stages don't have any decisive uphill finishes. Think he'll be looking for a stage win & top 5 overall. I missed 16/1, now 9/1 & not so attractive.

Always rivalry between French riders ahead of TdF, & Thibaut Pinot will be up to his normal attacks in the mountains. He'll be especially motivated with Voeckler winning a stage today.

Bauke Mollema could be a decent shout for the third podium spot. Blanco have sent a strong team in support so are expecting a good performance.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JAQnvZhfwg

Some interesting comments on why we should not read too much on how the riders perform in the Dauphine.

Real life stuff has been occupying most of my time, so missed a lot of Tour de Suisse. Noticed that Hesjedal crashed out yesterday whilst looking good for the overall win. Some luck he's having! Hope he's recovers well enough for the TdF.

Cavendish, Greipel, Kittel & other sprinters start today in Ster ZLM in Holland. The fast fat boys warming up ahead of the TdF.

a tipster friend of mine has given me these for Le TOur

Points Classification:
Peter Sagan 2.2 PaddyPower

Podium Finish:
Richie Porte 4.5 Bet365

team classification

saxobank 18/1

overall winner

contador 4/1

jakob fuglsang 400/1ew

green jersey

cavendish 13/8


thoughts please

Hi Tighty,

Not done any real in depth research yet but...

Sagan for points classification I'd have Sagan just ahead of Cav, a two hores race, no one else will be close. Essentially Sagan has more scoring opportunities (a better all rounder) over the three weeks. Cav price based a lot on the Giro performance & British money. Sagan has targeted the points/green jersey & I'd have him odds on & Cav even money. Note of caution though, I'm expecting the sprints to crazy & frantic affairs this year (they nearly always are!), with some fast & organised sprint trains. Crashes likely.

Porte podium, not a bad shout. He's good mates with Froome, often train together in Nice & closely match each other. Froome the better climber & Porte a stronger time trialist. If the Sky team are working particularly well & dominating the race in the mountains they can engineer a 1/2. Also, if Froome were to crash out etc, he's a standout podium spot.

Team class, frankly not sure. Many still not fully confirmed & injuries & illness are all possible with two weeks or so until the start.

Contador, 4/1 is decent value if you can get it. Has looked below his best mostly, but always seems to be at 100% come the big races.

Fuglsang, Astana I think have confirmed him as lead rider, but Janez Brajkovič is a better option imo. Top 10-15 at best for me.

Stage 7 Tour De Suisse.

(http://www.procyclingstats.com/races/profilesmaps/2013-03/Tour-de-Suisse-Stage-6-1363267585.jpg)

Dan Martin FTW 15/2 & Simon Spilak 25/1 EW. Both have been profitable this year for me.

(http://www.visit-corsica.com/var/ezflow_site/storage/images/nos-coups-de-coeur/le-grand-depart-du-tour-de-france-en-corse/213579-1-fre-FR/Le-grand-depart-du-tour-de-France-en-Corse_photo_article2.jpg)

The grand départ in Corsica is now less than two weeks away.  :)

Full OPQS squad announced.

Cavendish
Chavanel
Kwiatkowski
Martin
Pineau
Steegmans
Terpstra
Trentin
Velits

Kwiatkowski should be one of the favourites for the white jersey.

Fuglsang had a high speed crash in training over the weekend. Apparently will be ok for the TdF, but not ideal preparation.

Argos-Shimano confirm a sprint lead squad. A well drilled team, Marcel Kittel, particularly, and John Degenkolb will be in the mix for the sprint stages.

Noticed Betvictor go 2.8 Sagan. Out of line particularly as I see Sagan favourite against Cav, & most of the bookies have moved that way.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/points-classification

Blanco announce team.

Mollema
Gesink
Boom
Ten Dam
Leezer
Nordhaug
Tankink
Vanmarcke
Wynants

No Bos or Renshaw, so have ditched any attempts for the sprint stages. Bauke Mollema is the lead man after strong ride in Tour de Suisse. Robert Gesink given free role & less pressure to produce a top overall finish. Good move.

Cannondale confirm their team. Built around Sagan with the prime aim of winning the green jersey, but also to win yellow in stage 2 or 3 & hold for the week. Moreno Moser as second lead rider.

Orica-GreenEdge

Brett Lancaster
Cameron Meyer
Daryl Impey
Matt Goss
Michael Albasini
Simon Clarke
Simon Gerrans
Stuart O’Grady
Svein Tuft

A team looking to nick a stage win. Goss for sprints. Gerrans in the medium mountains. Albasini in breakaway opportunities. Simon Clarke could find himself well up in the KOM if he can get in the breakaways in the mountains.

RadioShack:

A.Schleck, Bakelants, Didier, Gallopin, Irizar, Klöden, Monfort, Voigt, Zubeldia.

Andy Schleck named as leader. Slow improvement over the season, but still far from a level to place in the top 20.

Zubeldia, generally a consistent GT rider & more likely to place top 10.

At 41 & probably his last Tour, Jens Voigt can be relied upon for a banzai breakaway. Hope he can nick a stage, incredible rider.

Saxo-Tinkoff confirmed:

Contador 
Hernandez 
Paulinho 
Noval 
Rogers 
Roche 
Tosatto 
Bennati 
Kreuziger

Strong team to support Contador, with his regular trusted lieutenants in Hernandez & Paulinho. Bolstered with 2013 super strong signings in Rogers, Roche & Kreuziger. Looks like a team to break & disrupt the Sky train in the mountains. Interesting!

Hellova strong team there. Might actually do Sky a favour if they compete to lead the peleton train.

I haven't taken a look yet to see how technical the sprint finishes are, but I forsee a few crashes on the sprint finishes this year. So many top sprinters around they gonna get in each others way.

Loved Froomie's view on Wiggo

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2dqR3IkQ-w

Short preview.

Vacansoleil team:

Boeckmans
Flecha
De Gendt
Hoogerland
Lagutin
Poels
B. van Poppel
D. van Poppel
Westra

Lieuwe Westra, lead rider. Thomas de Gendt for the mountains. Danny van Poppel at 19 will be the youngest rider in the peloton.

With Froome looking to extend his contract at Sky, Wiggins looks to be isolated within the team. Where to next for him?

Team Sky announced:

Froome
Porte
Boasson Hagen
Kennaugh
Kiryenka
López
Siutsou
Stannard
Thomas

No surprises. Debuts for Stannard & Kennaugh, good to see the Brits in there.

Lotto Belisol:

Van Den Broeck
De Clerq
Willems
Bak
Greipel
Roelandts
Henderson
Sieberg
Hansen

Van Den Broeck, leader. Fourth overall in the past couple of years, will perhaps find it difficult to make top 10 this.

Griepel has the best leadout train & should be able to nick at least one sprint stage if Cav falters.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jun/21/bradley-wiggins-never-ride-tour-de-france-again

(http://cdn.velonews.competitor.com/files/2013/06/TDFRouteGraphic1920X1280.jpg)

Katusha confirm their squad.

Rodríguez
Moreno
Losada
Trofimov
Vorganov
Brutt
Kristoff
Smukulis
Kuschynski

Rodriguez confirmed as number one rider. He'll need to be at his very best to even podium. Strong climbing support from Losada, Trofimov & Moreno. Kristoff for the sprinters stages, he's in good shape & could nick a win from Sagan.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRy_adiaIlc

Still a kid & wants to muck around on his bike  :)

BMC for the Tour:

Evans
Van Garderen
Bookwalter
Burghardt
Gilbert
Moinard
Morabito
Quinziato
Schär

Evans starting his ninth Tour. Strong squad with six riders who helped Evans win in 2011.

Van Garderen will be in support of Evans, & looking for a high overall placing. Favourite for the white jersey.

Astana:

Fuglsang
Brajkovic
Bazayev
Gasparotto
Gavazzi
Kessiakoff
Kashechkin
Lutsenko 
Muravyev

Fuglsang confirmed as leader.

Cavendish, Griepel & Sagan all win their respective National champs.

Sojasun, French Pro Continental team:

Delaplace
El Fares
Feillu
Hivert
Lemoine
Marino
Mederel
Simon
Villermoz

Will be looking to get in any breakaways.

AG2R:

Bardet
Bouet
Dumoulin
Dupond
Gadret
Kadri
Minard
Peraud
Riblon

Leader is Peraud, aiming for top 10.

What are your thoughts on whether the team will switch to TJ being leader mid race if Evans continues to struggle in the hills

Evans is one tough old sod, 3rd in the Giro is not bad for a last minute warm up for the TdF. Evans still calls the shots at BMC. It'll take illness or injury for him to quit. Think TJ knows next year will be better opportunities for him, but he'll still be looking for a high finish.

FDJ, French Pro Continental team:

Bouhanni
Bonnet
Fischer
Fédrigo
Geniez
Jeannesso
Pinot
Roy
Vichot

Lead by Pinot, & has a decent chance to make top 10. Debut for Bouhanni, he'll be in the mix for the sprint stages. Vichot has just won the French Nationals, watch out for a stage win.

Cofidis:

Taaramae
Levarlet
Bagot
Coppel
Garcia
Le Mével
Mate
Molard
Navarro

A strong team, with options in Jerome Coppel, Dani Navarro & Rein Taaramae.

Navarro could make top 10. Also liking the chances of Taaramae for a high overall with his recent National championship win.

Euskaltel - Euskadi.

Nieve
Anton
J & G Izaguirre
Perez
Lobato
Sicard
Oroz
Astarloza

Nieve & Anton, joint leaders. Will be active in the mountains as standard!

Movistar:

Amador
Castroviejo
Costa
Erviti
Gutierrez
Plaza
Quintana
Rojas
Valverde

Exceptionally strong line up. Valverde as expected will be lead rider, with ambition for a podium finish. Strong back up in Costa & Quintana.

Like their chances in winning the Team classification.

20 of the 22 teams confirmed their line ups. I think I've briefly covered them all. Just Garmin & Lampre to confirm.

Blanco have new sponsors & become Team Belkin.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9mi04XJTyE

Lampre:

Cunego
Bono
Cimolai
Favilli
Ferrari
Malori
Mori
Niemiec
Serpa

Damiano Cunego, leader. Strong back up from Niemiec, 6th at the Giro.

Garmin have not yet confirmed their squad, but Dan Martin is expected to start. 4/1 top 10, looks a decent sweat. May also be a contender for KOM, but objectives of the team may become clearer after stage 2.

(http://xaxor.com/images/96321/vintage_photos_of_tour_de_france_06.jpg)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23028684

The Tour in photos.

Getting excited much anyone?

Sky showed Cavs stage 2 win last year. No train for Cav just a proper sprinters race where Cav just got on the back of everyones wheel, one by one

Just a tad.... hell, I love this race!  ;D

Really think the opener could be great. Cav in the British National Jersey v Greipel in the German. Winner will be in Yellow. Classic! Add in Kittel, Sagan, Bouhanni... chance of crosswinds on the coast & echelon racing.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1yGBeOX9kA

Not to be missed.

Argos-Shimano's planning for sprints.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXOZLk1dyPE

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-P8WcPjMMv8

3 days until the Grand Départ

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWve4g83CVI

Science behind the Sprint Train.

A portrait of Chris Froome on Eurosport.

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/video/tour-france-countdown-chris-froome-150117399.html

Paul Kimmage will be doing a video diary during the Tour, expect straight talking!

http://www.independent.ie/sport/kimmage/inside-the-tour-de-france-watch-paul-kimmages-video-diary-every-day-of-the-race-29374202.html

Finally Garmin announced their team:

Talansky
Martin
Hesjedal
Navardauskas
Dennis
Danielson
Bauer
Vandevelde
Millar

Exciting & talented squad. Could be a surprise package in mix. Unconventional & aggressive approach with no team leader, but using the options of Hesjedal, Talansky & Martin for a high overall finish.

Betfred are 10/1 in team classification. Worth a fiver. Top four are actually closer than betting suggests imo.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UEMXK7uVvc

Cavendish interview.

Anyone considering betting against Cav in stage 1?

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/tour-de-france-stage-1/winner

Love that team line up, possibly the most talented overall, soo many options for them

Really hope they will ignite the race, so much potential there.

Team manager likes it:

Jonathan Vaughters ‏@Vaughters
Last year I just didn't feel it for the Tour. Something was off with our team. This year? Mojo is there.

Contador today in the media press conference:

“It’s difficult to say where I am right now. That will become clearer when the race gets under way. I would say that I am at about 90 per cent right, which is just about where I want to be given the difficulty of the race this year.”

On tactics: “The route this year provides a lot of opportunities. There are some short mountain stages where you can take a risk and make attacks from a long way out if things have got complicated in the overall standings. But if things go to plan I won’t be thinking about tactics until after the second time trial. At that point, my tactics might need to become more aggressive or perhaps more conservative. In any case, one thing that’s for certain is that there will be more action on this route than in recent years.”

More build up  :)

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lR-Z7Z0GuHM

Sagan at 12s is too big. Some nice e/w potential

Maybe, but I have my doubts. Finish looks to be for power sprinters with high top end speed. Sagan could be swamped unless it turns into a messy brawl. Stage 2 looks better, but likely to be short priced favourite.

Probably not a stage for betting for me, but tempted with Greipel ftw, price unlikely to shorten, so pondering. 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/cycling/tour-de-france/10147907/Tour-de-France-2013-It-is-impossible-to-win-Tour-without-taking-drugs-claims-Lance-Armstrong.html

Armstrong calls Wiggins a cheat.

Indirectly, but mostly seems to be an attempt to grab attention ahead of the Tour with his own personal agenda against the UCI. Interestingly sexed up by Le Monde newspaper, the rival to L'Equipe (sponsors of the Tour)

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQnhsGcnlWg

Tour Week 1 Insight.

My top 10 (11) prediction.

Froome
Porte
Contador
Van Garderen
Rodriguez
Van den Broeck
Quintana
Evans
Pinot
Mollema/Martin

Live coverage on Eurosport & ITV4. Highlights package generally at 7pm on ITV.

3 weeks....  ;sark; ;yippee; ;D

I became hooked on the tour last year so looking forward to this years.

Lets hope its a classic. Enjoy the drama.

Froome already had a crash & bike change! NERVY first day!