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PokerStars Hand #96471093409: Tournament #713010003, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XLIV (200000/400000) - 2013/04/01 2:46:16 WET [2013/03/31 21:46:16 ET]
Table '713010003 791' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: piterpan641 (9928890 in chips)
Seat 2: twinny81 (16028819 in chips)
Seat 3: 888Nicole888 (7753335 in chips)
Seat 4: CanDo.ca (16903428 in chips)
Seat 5: HERO (6051568 in chips)
Seat 6: toty_antonio (6217145 in chips)
Seat 7: Mr Trutta (5616716 in chips)
Seat 9: Kakalala (25621571 in chips)
piterpan641: posts the ante 40000
twinny81: posts the ante 40000
888Nicole888: posts the ante 40000
CanDo.ca: posts the ante 40000
HERO: posts the ante 40000
toty_antonio: posts the ante 40000
Mr Trutta: posts the ante 40000
Kakalala: posts the ante 40000
toty_antonio: posts small blind 200000
Mr Trutta: posts big blind 400000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [td Ac]
Kakalala: raises 400030 to 800030
piterpan641: folds
twinny81: folds
888Nicole888: folds
CanDo.ca: folds

WHAT DO I DO HERE ??

he has been fairly active and raised UTG a a few times but i aint seen a show down

Fold?

I said via pm, prob fine/standard but the ICM in this spot is REALLY REALLY brutal. If he is active enough like he should be I still think a shove is fine. But he has to be pretty dam active.

think this will be a split opinion and ppl will say depends on the game flow etc.

jamming here vs anyone whos shown signs of being aggro/opening wide

Is a small 3b-fold really bad?

Think that's gonna be my line..

Unless I've misread it, it look like we have less than 20bb so 3 bet fold is kinda out of the question.

has got loads of chips, seen to be raising frequently enough EP and used some pretty reggy sizing so I think shipping cant NOT show a profit, just depends whether you want to do it or not :P

You can actually be called in decent shape some of the time as well, he's obv calling any pair he's opened, prolly KQ and KJ suited and we don't know but he may well call A8/A9 as well.

I watched the rest of the tourney and i was deffo right to ship. Once he busted me he got even more aggro and played pretty awfull and got real lucky 3 times then had the cheek to tell the other 2 hes got an edge 3 handed so asked for more in a deal. Glad they refused as he spewed the chips off like a donkey. #rantover

HERO: raises 5211538 to 6011568 and is all-in
toty_antonio: folds
Mr Trutta: folds
Kakalala: calls 5211538
*** FLOP *** [Qs 3h 4s]
*** TURN *** [Qs 3h 4s] [4h]
*** RIVER *** [Qs 3h 4s 4h] [6h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Kakalala: shows [Jh Jc] (two pair, Jacks and Fours)

 ;busted;

he's a hs reg playing the storm.

def shove the ATs

well thats not necessarily true.

kakalala im pretty sure is a reg.

Let me re-phrase. It's not out of the question. But I consider 3bet/fold the worse option considering stack size.

I fold, would rather reshove T9s. Even if hes aggy I don't think he is just gona be opening JTo UTG in the storm where everyone loves a peel.

Disagree about peels with 20 left. I watched some of this and don't think I can find a fold.

why will the fact that 20 people are left make whales not want to peel? Its the sunday storm lol.

cant really see a super tuesday and all the high stuff reg not trying to exploit everyone in the storm. or for that matter worry about being peeled by storm level goons.

with these stack sizes and vs villain and the rest of the field i think its the second best option after folding.

Perhaps I'm looking at it wrong somehow, but it looks like a rather standard fold to me.

we are not shoving jj-aa here are we???

if he has any hands on me previous then definitely shove. Also if he is 1 tabling i would shove should snap OPR/sharkscope someone if they flat here on 15bb

Thought this would be spilt opinions lol. The two main reasons why I shoved were the fact he was playing pretty agg, opened UTG several times ! wish I used poker tracker and had the stats to show. I had been playing with him for about 150 hands and he was using his stack quite wel from what i could gather and for me his range deffo included 99/88/77/ and may be 66. also KQ/KJs/A9s. This was confirmed even more so after watching it to a conclusion!  I also 3 bet all in twice and got called twice why he was at the table and had AA and QQ. Just for the record, peeling here is an absolute no go for me in this spot against such a big stack and plus a good spot for a squeeze from SB/BB. Folding is deffo an option but given the circumstances and after 24 hrs to think about it i would ship again here.

Most "whales" know that 35k is up top or whatever. I think you'd be surprised just how nitty they can get when there is this sort of money on the line.

This^^^

Making the 3bet here with 20bb also looks super strong and looks like your trying to sneak some value. YOu can make these moves work. Just finding the right spot.

OK where to start.

Point A) I think there are quite a few good spots to 3bet out of less then 20BBs, but I do not think this is one of them. Our hand has a lot of AIPF equity, so I think we're burning money by 3bet/folding it this shallow vs an UTG opening range which contains a lot of hands which can jam on us. We can't just assume that this guy is going to have such an easily manipulated range, in my experience MTT regs have a very "oh wtf, if he's got it, he's got it, I 'aint foldin'!" kind of attitude when they are faced with these decisions with the bottom of their raise/call range (ie 77-99, AJss) If you are going to play the hand to an open playing 6M at 20k/40k you must shove IMHO.

Point 2) Peeling is not an option. We are too shallow with a hand that doesn't flop very well vs an UTG opening rage. We just get into too many "fml" spots where we have second pair or a bad draw or something and not enough maneuverability due to the shallow pot to stack ratio. The only hands I'd peel here are AA/KK.

Point III) Folding is definitely a legit option, but it completely depends on game flow. Just because he's a HS reg doesn't mean he's going to be opening really wide utg into loads of cheese cakes who are likely to put up resistance. That being said, these cheese cakes do lock up a lot once you get down to the last 2/3 tables because they are so scare-scare of busting. In my experience these opponents do generally try not to risk their tournament lives until they absolutely have to (obviously this rule has exceptions, this is just what I've noticed over the last 3/4 years of playing mtts). A lot of regs (inc. myself) however, will just relentlessly open into these guys no matter how shallow they are because of waht I just said, they really don't reshove on you enough to NOT make a profit opening. Also, stealing the blinds and keeping these guys handcuffed by their stacks vastly improves your equity and reduces your variance because you earn yourself a lovely little cushion so when you do have to get it in vs one of the shorties it doesn't cripple you if you lose.
So, it completely depends on which type of reg you think he is, and only you can know whether it was a good shove or not really because you were the only one at the table. It's that close imo.

I think I end up shoving, but not loving it at all.  If he opens a few spots over I'm LOVING it.

Oh and just as a footnote:


ATo has much better AIPF equity than T9ss, you should use Pokerstove or similar before making comments like this, because they're not opinion, they can be solved mathematically.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   1,417,787,712  games     0.000 secs   283,557,542,400  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    68.919%     67.68%    01.24%         959603280     17518698.00   { 77+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1:    31.081%     29.85%    01.24%         423147036     17518698.00   { ATo }


---

 534,238,848  games     0.000 secs   106,847,769,600  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    65.725%     65.43%    00.30%         349540644      1586226.00   { 77+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1:    34.275%     33.98%    00.30%         181525752      1586226.00   { T9s }


Maybe you should use pokerstove before talking to me like a idiot.

if you think 77+, AJs+ and AQo+ is his calling range (against which we have 33%..) when we shove, you realise we need a shit tonne of fold equity/him to be opening really rather super duper wide to make either hand a shove? since you don't think he's opening JTo where everyone loves a peel, what do you think he's opening?

I don't shove either hand. I just said I would rather have 9Ts than ATo

i know, but I'm still interested in how wide you think he's opening. I actually think he's calling wider as well, usually.

I obviously can't tell you his opening range. I don't think he will be calling much wider than 77 AJs AQo, flick in KQs 66 AJo even ATs and 9Ts still does better than ATo.

The more I think about the more trivial folds I think they both are.

(http://arala.webs.com/photos/Buttons/BurningBear.jpg)

Whilst I think he was a bit rude, the top 10% (well 9.8%) according to pokerstove is 88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo and the contrived 77+, AJs+, AQo+ range that is close to that which ATo does worst against.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   2,198,598,336  games     0.001 secs     2,198,598,336,000  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    60.532%     58.31%    02.22%        1282090440     48766860.00   { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1:    39.468%     37.25%    02.22%         818974176     48766860.00   { ATo }


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 821,905,920  games     0.000 secs   164,381,184,000  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    65.484%     65.08%    00.41%         534867680      3346404.00   { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1:    34.516%     34.11%    00.41%         280345432      3346404.00   { T9s }

Guess you can argue all day about the merits of pokerstove ranges, but at least it seems impartial.

I'd put the top 10% as roughly an average rec's calling range.  Just need to work out his raising range now.

who raise/calls QTs for 15bigs here utg vs MP? that r/c range seems crazy.

Cant imagine anyone snapping A9s, KTs and QTs and folding 77. Which just proves you can usually adjust stoves to make most sides of arguments to appear correct

The fella with all the chips? 

I agree with Dubai FWIW, but still feel the argument is a bit silly.  ATo is probably better than T9s, but no need form him to be rude about it, as they aren't going to be that far off. 

I want to apologise for my previous comment, not because I was wrong, but because of how I came across. I was playing at the same time and just quickly rattled it off without thinking about how arrogant the comment was.

I am surprised at the stove results, but I do agree with the range, I guess this just shows how long it's been since I've done any proper equity work off the table for MTTs (I haven't played MTTs for a living in over 7 months).

I am sorry again mate, I genuinely didn't mean to be such a prick about it.

Its cool, no biggie.

Yeah i think TL900s range is closer to correct than top 10%, brownie points allround for reply as well Jamie. We all type stuff on here that comes across badly as well

any bear4pricks about ?

Gotta own up when i'm in the wrong.

you must be used to it now brah xx

Eat my fuck Beaneh you ass.

Think peeling KK/AA vs this villain would be really bad, unless he thinks you are terrible then guess its an option.

I don't think i agree, simply because there is no way he knows enough about our game to know that we only flat AA/KK, I think we can just disguise ourselves in the field which is full of bananas, and hope he assumes we are one of them.. I feel like if the villain knew enough about us to make it bad, that history would have been mentioned in the OP.

I think you'd be surprised how exploitably you can play in these kind of tournaments. Just look at players like pessagno who have horrible games in theory, but crush these levels because they do really weird exploitable stuff when shallow. I think this is one of those spots.

also people behind who are bananas will squeeze wider and go all in with more hands that they would fold if we 3b pre + the fact that utg will commit a lot with ahnds that he folds to the 3bet when he flops equity.

this.

pessagno is king, all hail

He doesn't really need to know that much about your game for this type of spot, he will OPR you if he's readless here I'd expect , and then will think you are are pretty much always nutted when you peel here, you or anyone competent/good just always has it here.

I get your point about spots where it can be best to play exploititively, I vaguely remember a spot slightly similar to this awhile back were I advocated playing AA face up for this exact reason, I think this is a bad spot to do it though.

I pretty much disagree with all of this.

Don't think these "bananas" are going to pick this spot vs an utg open and a short stack peel to get ool when the money up top will be huge to most "bananas". I definitely don't think they'll be doing it often enough that it makes peeling a better option than jamming since as I say we are extremely polarized now and I'd expect utg to shutdown so often.

Villain will know his image so will think us, they competent/good player, will be jamming wide enough that with our stack he's not folding 77, AJ etc. Whereas when we peel I'd fully expect him to c/f flop so often here, think anything else from him is a mistake also.

I think everyone ITT is vastly underestimating the way any none professional will play in the final 20 of a 25k runner field.

UTG never shuts down, always fires at least one, no matter how competent the other guy is.

Pessango is a boss.

UTG is a good HS reg.

if a guy has 66-tt and it goes raise/call he will jam a lot more than if it goes raise 3bet. we know the guy is opening wide utg but will be folding a lot to our 3bet all in but stacking off reasonably wider post flop.

also the fact guys actually play super nitty here, the times they have aq/tt/jj and fold to our 3bet all in (they will a certain % of the time) is really bad as they will close to 100% jam when we flat.

also think that if its a significantly smaller comp to what hes used to he will probably playing significantly splashier and more likely to try and overrun players who may be scared money etc.

also dont expect him to think we're polarized, he will probably put us on a pair if the board is high and broadways if the board is low :)

i think calling is the only option with aa/kk.

What % of regs do you think are peeling in this spot that aren't nutted ?

Mondatoo, I really think you're overestimating how well people at this level read the game. A random pineapple doesn't say "ok, this guy has opened from X and this guy has peeled from Y", he says "well, a 9 and a 7, let's see a flop." or "I HAZ A PAIR OF SIXES, ARRRR INNNNN".

Peeling 100% opens people's peeling and reshoving ranges rather than 3betting, and i'm really surprised that anyone can try and refute that.

Also, it takes a VERY disciplined reg not to fire a cbet on 832r or if they flop any equity and jsut check/fold. I don't think many regs are just gonna check/own you post flop tbh.

And also, why isn't our OPR and Sharkscope blocked? pretty fishy if you're a winner to have that info about imho.

Your OPR isn't blocked ?  ;)

lol syskey holds 97s and flops 66x GET THE WORLD IN LADS. PAIR

Obv, I never disputed that though, but would be very suprised if the Maths showed that we gain more chips from the times we peel and the blinds squeeze as opposed to us 3b jamming and utg's calling range. Pretty obv since it's basic level 1 stuff I realise the amount of fish in these comps that don't look at anything but there own cards.

Does it ?

You said yourself you only have AA/KK when you peel here, unless I'm wrong and unlike you a load of the regs in mtt's have started getting funky and peeling in this spot it seems very easy to own your soul here.

Mine isn't blocked because of staking but I agree with you.

I tried four very good regs, and beaneh, none of which were blocked, obv makes sense why Wayman wouldn't be.

I know, should have added that in. And he is def stabbing one if we flat with AA/KK unless he has opr'd us. And blocking OPR doesn't do that much, its not hard to tell if they guy is a reg or not due to the 99.xx he shows etc.

Just caught up on this thread and like a few people have said its a close decision!! I honestly believe that if any of you were playing at the time you would all be snap shoving. The Villain was in total control of the table and using his stack well. Everyone had locked up as for most people they just want to jump the ladder, I was the only one who played back at him pretty much from what I can remember.
I honestly thought my Equity was not that bad at all given the dynamics of how the table was running. His range was massive IMO.

I no the ICM is pretty pants here but I thought it would be offset by most likely taking a healthy stack to the final table ??

As for AA/KK here I am deffo flatting as I have done OPR on the whole table which was another reason for shoving with my hand.

Overall a sick hand IMO after coming through such a big field.