blonde poker forum

Hi Guys

The ISPT 300 Euro Day 2 satelites are nearly upon us  , 7 online and 3 live (10 in total )

I think its fair to say this is a unique event with a lot new ideas and innovative concepts, so with a great deal of money at stake I thought it prudent to discuss and hopefully understand all potential variables

One thing in particular that has made me think Is the value of the Day 2 stack .

Ill try and start with the basic facts as I see them (pretty sure Ive got the information right but please correct me if wrong)


So...The buy in for the event is 2700 Euros + reg fee = 3000E  for that you get 50000 chips

The satelites cost 270 Euros + reg fee = 300E and for that you get 5000 chips ( both live and online ) 

Nice and easy to understand ( so far ) as everything is exactly 10 percent . Now its starts to get a tad complicated.

As you are aware  you can enter multiple day 1s so should you be lucky enough to make Day 2 you have options  ...so I  ask the question

What is the smallest stack you are willing to forfeit or play ?

So bearing in mind the blinds will re start on day 2 at 100/200 and the direct buy in players will have 50K..I think its fair to say that any stack 25/30k plus is very playable

Lets assume  you made day 2 with a smaller stack say 20K  ,In theory your stack is worth 1200 Euros (40% of a 50k stack) however you may want to think about other things such as the cost of travel and accommodation but then of course there is the" you were there at Wembley " angle  which possibly  makes it worthwhile  just for the experience.

One very important thing to bear in mind is that if you have made Day2  with a short stack and you do decide to have another go then you immediately forfeit your first stack so theoretically you could of been going to Wembley ( be it with a SS ) and then not make the top 10 percent again. Also you have to remember there are refunds available for unused 300E tokens after you have qualified so one more thing to consider.

With so many imponderables it could be potential minefield for stakers and stakees , and to that end I had a quick chat with Ray about his "7 bullet " staking plan which made me realise Ray has to consider a decision for his backers too (Its like anything though with good communication and clarity there will be no problems)


Maybe Im making this sound too complicated as its quite feasible all of the Top Ten Percent will go through with  40/50/60K plus stacks but with the sums involved its worth considering every eventuality.


Anyway ...Its Food for Thought .

Good Luck to All those That Play .

Cheers

Fraser

I was wondering the same myself. I have further to travel so I dunno if that should factor in what stack I'm willing to go with. Also, doesn't something like 75% of day 2 make the money?

yes but min cash isnt 6k ergo, day 2 seat not worth 3k (as in in you make day 2 with 50K stack via a day 1 and want to sell)

I have two day ones and will try for a third on Sunday, getting to day 2 itself won't be that easy with 90% of the field missing out on each day one so I would think pretty much any stack is playable - even 10k is an early shove stack for day 2 with a trip to wembley and an overnight in London for a day out

I'd be surprised to see anyone forfeit a stack unless they intend to buy in to day 2 anyway

I think I read no one has done it since they introduced it in previous tournaments

(50% of day 2 make the money with the estimated min cash 540 euros)

Sample payout schedules, starting at 1000 runners

http://www.dusktilldawnpoker.com/ispt/ispt-payout.pdf

If you are someone who would forfeit a small stack then you're highly unlikely to have a small stack, aren't you?

If it's getting close to the bubble on Day 1 and you've a small stack, a potential forefeiter is going to be in ultra-aggressive mode, punishing those who are trying to scrape in. So they're either going to have a big stack or they're going to get knocked out.

Doesn't seem to quite work like that though, firstly you can get crippled right at the end - or you can just get your shoves through and pick up the blinds a lot. Quite a few ways you can be stuck with a bowl at the end.

I've been in that spot before with the Grand Prix, and I just found it impossible to just throw away chips, it was 8 big blinds, and just couldn't bring myself to just shove 73o over a raise or anything, so made just made day two with a bowl and mincashed like a boss 8)

That's why it's not impossible, just highly unlikely. Someone who essentially had a stack that was worthless (as they were ditching it) would (or, rather, should) be just getting it in with any old crap.

just can't see what a "worthless" stack is.

Even 5k is still 25 big blinds going back. and worth a few hundred euros in equity.

Do you mean having like 800?

The travel for this is a nightmare for me as you cannot book return tickets as you do not know if it will be 2-3-4-5 days or if you will be in Stringfellows for a month trying to spend a Million Euros. Last minute tickets are very expensive so it is a pain. I would probably forfeit up to 20k, I think 20k being 100 bigs is my point.  On the second bullet (if it is my last) I will see how cheap I can get down and assess if the "Wembley Factor" is worth shelling out a few 100 to play a few hands.

As a matter of interest how would you price up 10% of a 10k stack for staking purposes.  I would have thought it would be more valuable then 30 euros being 10% of the entry fee but considerably less than 600 euros (1/5th of day 2 direct entry).  This is based on a player who would normally sell at spot.

Whats day 1 structure? Chips etc?

online structure

http://www.ispt-poker.co.uk/couk/program/course/

live is 50,000 with 38 min clock starting 100-200, then levels as on the link x10

Stacks carried forward to Wembley, live stacks divide by ten to equalise with online stacks

A worthless stack is any which the player thinks 'I can't be bothered with this'

One player may well be happy with 800, as for them it's all about playing at Wembley. For another player, who is playing FTW they might consider anything below 25k as too big of a disadvantage.

There's no empirical value.

I don't think any stack below 1000 is worth forfeiting.

I appreciate the travel and accommodation need to be taken into consideration, but if you did make day 2 with circa 5BB, you just turn up and play, and book a hotel if u make day 3, and drive home if you don't, surely the experience of playing on the pitch at Wembley is worth not forfeiting the bowl stack!

I think the option to forfeit is only there to allow a player who gets all in and "almost covered" and loses in the last hand of the day 1.

You aren't appreciating that this isn't a normal tourney, and I can assure you that is fairly bad thinking.

This is essentially a $300 tourney with $1m up top and possibly <1500 runners for day 2 (which is technically a day 1 in MTT terms).

Therefore starting with that kind of disadvantage against the field is always going to be a huge mistake when you have the OPTION to try again.

I have put alot of time into this (both sattys and MTT's) and although I didnt come up with a definitive "sweet spot" for forfeting, there are some strong and compelling reasons to do so.

Some top players may also be weighing up this vs Vegas - they might see themselves as having a minimum chip stack to make it worth their while staying here

Although I understand some people will have a different agenda  and view points I actually agree with you Guy (hence my OP)

Having also put some time in playing sats I feel going there too short stacked is not a good strategy especially if armed with a few 300E bullets

I suppose The ideal scenario is to prevent this happening by "getting busy " in the last level .

I thinks its fair to say its not an exact science because we both know some short stacks will make progress.

I'd be more than happy to sit down with 10k or more. There's loads of play with 50 bigs with the structure as it is.

Chances of me having a stack any less than that at the end are pretty much zero though to be honest.

5k probably wouldn't be worth the drive but I'd do it anyway unless I had some spare seats going. Certainly wouldn't pay €300 for another go if I was still in with 25 bigs.

If I somehow found myself with 2k I think I'd make the trip but do a staking thread for the side events and spend all the money on a huge piss up.

My thoughts was day 1 's being a satellite to Wembley and everyone starts the same.

Think I need to read more!

Regards

M   

 

To make day2 is the plan on this ISPT . Chips stack hopefully going to b a playable of min 150bb plus ,

I'm hoping to take through 10-15bbs, legoooooo.

Bread and butter

Would never forfeit a stack, punt it off maybe...

It seem to me to be a very difficult proposition, as only 10% go through to Wembley - are u really going to forfeit your stack and potentially not make it through the field again!!!   in theory you would never know how Wembley would have played out by not being there - even with a small ish stack - you may have an incredible run of cards and great play to smash the field.

realistically any stack under 25 bb is going to be tough to play with as your only option in Wembley is a shove...... then u need a bit of luck and I would rather rely on skilful play!!

People seem to be overlooking day 2b. I personally will be taking any stack through (whilst punting late on day 1 if I'm very short) if its a small stack I'm unlikely to get through the day, if I do then great, if not you can play 2b. I'm pretty sure selling action for this comp won't be difficult for most people. I know this doesn't account for all factors, most obviously that day 1s will probably be much softer and a better chance to accumulate chips and that some people can't afford 3k. I just hadn't seem any mention of day 2b in anyone's thoughts.

I think it would've been pretty good for the prize pool if people could play as many day 1s as they like and take their best stacks through.

Confirmed 180 grinder itt

Not sure what you mean sir  ?

In the main we have been discussing taking short stacks into Day 2  players can choose   A or B   

Sure.... if you were to enter A and bust you could re enter B but of course that would cost 3K

This would've been great for the players and the event IMO. Players could play multiple day 1s trying to get a stack and the event would get more day 1 runners overall.

Also think they might have been better scheduling all the online day 1s before the live day 1s as I imagine people like me that don't live close to DTD won't travel at all for the live day 1s and will just try to make it online but if all the online day 1s were 1st, the people that didn't make it through would've been much more willing to go to DTD and grind some day 1s

One thing you would have to consider if this was allowed is that its highly likely there would be a dramatic change in table dynamics towards the last few levels of the day as people will obviously be gambling more to surpass their previous stacks

This in turn could result in some players calling " foul play"  as players keen to build bigger stacks may not be playing " conventionally  "   

 

Yeah I agree but at the same time it might make it easier to get to the 10% mark when its close to the bubble as more people will be willing to punt off and gamble if they have a stack already.  The way it currently is I can imagine the bubble is gonna be dominated by the short stacks shoving around and not by the bigger stacks trying to chip up.

Rob covered on the main thread why they didn't allow the 'take your biggest stack through' idea, which I initially thought was the best way to go about things to have a chance making the guarantee.

Think the main reason was because the event is heavily aimed at recreational players, and he didn't want pros who could have multiple bullets at getting big stacks to be at such a huge advantage.

That's more or less exactly what I was implying.
I mentioned this wasn't an attempt at a solution to the question I just wanted to add another factor and that's if you take your day 1 stack through and bust you can re-enter, yes albeit for 3k. Its something that will affect my decision on whether to trash a stack, which definitely seems like something I wouldn't do.

Yeah this is fully understandable, and laudable that he has binned the idea since he really needs every entry he can get guarenteeing so much ftw. It wasn't me saying I wish this had been done, merely suggesting it would make the biggest prizepool. Having said that, even the recreational players want to see the biggest prizepools they can and people re-entering and binning equity has to be good for everyone.

+1

The event is aimed at recreational players and I read Rob some where saying he hopes a non pro goes on to win (I'm recreational  ;whistle;)

I think I am not forfeiting any stack; especially if I manage to rack up 4/5 bullets and go through early; off course you lock up the refunds and as Ben said then 2b is an option using the refunds. Maybe if I don't have multiple 300 tickets and I am under say 10k with a few day 1s to go I may give up.  But to be honest think I'd rather use the remaining 300 bullets towards 2b and spin the short stack.

The issue with forfeiting as well is everyone talking like they are "certainties" to spin up a bigger stack. Whilst there will be spots in all the satellites, it's not like anyone is a certainty. Even if you think your ROI is 200% in the field, your still simplistically 1/5 each bullet theoretically with ave stack.  It is tricky....I'm I the don't forfeit any day two stack unless an absolute bowl, justbpissing equity away refund other tickets buy in Day 2b if no spin.

Obv helps living a 10 min train from Wembley on exes etc.

Some serious under valuing of the value of any day 2 stack by some people

While I am all for other people lighting their equity on fire, me personally I don't think it's a great idea

I guess forfeiting the stack will be extremely rare. There are so many people trying to get as many day 1 seats as possible. So, since there is an option of getting a refund for any unused 300 tokens, people would definitely try to get a decent stack as early as possible ( atleast closer to 50k) within the first few attempts. In my opinion, my "forfeiting stack" would be only if its less than 5k.

This is very true. It is also why multiple attempts where you take your best stacks is good for the recreational player, as so many so-called pros will be under-estimating the value of their already achieved day 2 stacks and adding a lot of value to the prizepool for the recreational players.  By not allowing this Rob has increased the chance of a non-pro winning the event by far, however it is to the detriment of the tournaments 'value'.  I'm not saying one way is better than the other, just pointing something out that may have been overlooked when the decision was made.

Some serious under valuing of any day 2 stack ? 

A lot of People have views based on circumstances. For example Boba Fett traveling from Edinburgh is likely to view stack sizes differently to claypole who resides 10 minutes away.

Others may have multi tokens but might not have the cash to buy into day 2B

Generally I think the opinions have been quite well balanced , but the concensus seems to be in an ideal world nobody wants to forfeit

Not sure what you are using to gauge your comments  but if you are  thinking 15/20 bigs is playable then maybe everybody is " seriously undervaluing"

If I am lucky enough to progress to Day 2  I have a minimum figure in mind where Id like to be stackwise albeit if I have " lit my equity" to get there.

Anyone burying a 2a stack to re-enter 2b? 5bbs?

I probably should have expressed myself better, what I meant to say is that the 'value' of any short day 2 stack is very significant, and therefore forfeiting any such stack is going to likely be a pretty significant equity mistake. Playability of that stack is a different issue, I am simply thinking in terms of much money your chips are worth.

Playing the later levels of a day 1 in a more aggressive/'gambly' manner is very different and really just comes down to personal preference (some people are going to feel 'uncomfortable' coming back for day 2 with a shorter stack)

Expenses are of course a relevant consideration for many people (as is the possibility of direct buyin to Day 2b), myself included since i live in Glasgow, however my point is that they don't impact the value of your stack in EV terms

I also appreciate that different people have different motivations when the enter a poker tournament, and therefore might want to make a decision that enhances there enjoyment of playing the tournament rather than purely thinking in terms of EV, but I think it's important to acknowledge that distinction

Vgood post fizix

I think the idea of forfeiting a guaranteed day 2 stack, whatever the stack will not happen.... What it should be is anybody qualifying for day 2 under the 50,000 average has the option of re entering a future day 1 but if they don't 'beat' their previous day 2 stack then they still keep their original day 2 chips.
That would have bumped up the numbers a little. That would have given those with multiple day 1 tokens the chance to use them all to get the max stack they can get, hence saving all the €300 token refunds and adding to that hard task of making €1.000.000 prize pool for 1st
I would be surprised to see if anybody will forfeit a day 2 stack incase they don't qualify at all the next time as 90% of the field are eliminated.

Not a single player has EVER forfeited a stack since we allowed this into our re-entry rules, this was after players continually asking for us to allow this option, Even for the £50 Grand Prix, there were zero forfeits. 

I have got this exact dilemma now...... made it through to Wembley last night online but with a 21k stack, the thought of binning this stack for another attempt seems tempting apart from the thought of not getting through again!! will it be a playable stack?? any thought?? its a dilemma for sure! its got my scratching my head. 
Only 29 made it through last night, a bit gutted cause I did have over 40k with 40 players remaining but was card dead or behind some serious action when I had playable hands.

You got 100 bb with a slow clock - seems more than playable to me especially if you have some day ones you can now cash in to cover your costs...there's also no guarantee you would make the top ten percent with another go and how gutted would be then?

Would you regret missing out completely if you failed at another attempt or be ok with it cos you felt your stack was just unplayable (which it isn't)

think your spot on there smurf, I would be gutted if I didn't get through with other bullets...... I am the sort of person who would be wondering 'what if' I had gone to Wembley....... and I am now of the thought that you gotta be in it to win it???  I would need a decent run of cards early ish on and a bit of luck and some nice play inbetween and it could all happen!!

I agree with both points. Especially that if players were able to play multiple day 1's and take their largest stack through it would help prevent an overlay which in turn would ensure future events like this would take place. It may not be repeated if there is a big short fall.

I would have preffered the day 1's to be like a satellite to the main event which has the 3000 Euro buy in so everyone starts at Wembley with the same stack. However it should be a great event regardless. The chance of One million for a 300 stake (or less if satellited in).  who can afford to miss this?

the carrot is the 1Million for the winner... and like me I love playing them and have won it from the 3 dollar events...... so hope for everyone!! get on dtd and play play play for your chance to win!! the is excellent value in the 3 and 33 euro events with 100 seats to be won on a Sunday so get involved blondeys!!  ;mexicanwave;