blonde poker forum

hey, i played a hand against the best mtt player in the world today which i didnt quite understand. were on the direct bubble of the 44 turbo. my image is joke aggro as ive got a big stack on the bubble. there is people left in the mtt with 1bb.

what do we have to consider in villains spot here? is potential accumulation of chips really more important than cashing here with no fe.



PokerStars Hand #114353162458: Tournament #887462832, $40+$4 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXI (800/1600) - 2014/04/05 21:39:28 CET [2014/04/05 15:39:28 ET]
Table '887462832 30' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: rofrof (14900 in chips)
Seat 2: RuiNF (48153 in chips)
Seat 3: Aguskb (36084 in chips)
Seat 4: claudioney18 (15108 in chips)
Seat 5: pads1161 (48426 in chips)
Seat 6: fumigator8 (34648 in chips)
Seat 7: gstewart1992 (19190 in chips)
Seat 8: Moorman1 (11077 in chips)
rofrof: posts the ante 200
RuiNF: posts the ante 200
Aguskb: posts the ante 200
claudioney18: posts the ante 200
pads1161: posts the ante 200
fumigator8: posts the ante 200
gstewart1992: posts the ante 200
Moorman1: posts the ante 200
gstewart1992: posts small blind 800
Moorman1: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pads1161 [Qh Ah]
rofrof: folds
RuiNF: folds
Aguskb: folds
claudioney18: folds
pads1161: raises 1600 to 3200
fumigator8: folds
gstewart1992: folds
Moorman1: raises 7677 to 10877 and is all-in
pads1161: calls 7677

he had 44 btw.

72 pay, 85 dollar min cash, 5k ftw.

i generally avoid turbos and maybe this is the reason why.

I mean its obv bad from him but I wouldn't read too much into it. Maybe he fancied punting, maybe its $40 and he don't care, might have bust other comps and wants to go out for lunch/dinner- not everyone plays optimally all the time, even if he knows its bad it don't mean he aint allowed to gamble around

1 hes a g
2 everyone makes mistakes
3 he might have just thought fk this pleno kid or im a boss what even is a bubble


obv hes just taken down 265ko as I type this :p

tomsom who does this geeky stuff all the time says 44 is fine to gii. anybody can recommend a video on these exact spots? im pretty sure im playing way too nitty in these spots.

pair innit bro

Mondas your man obv

If someone has already bust on another table it's obv fine. It's a profitable chip EV spot but it's 100% a fold otherwise.

I'd say it's very likely he didn't realise it's the bubble (poor) or someone short has already bust. If not, then Chris isn't really much of a winner so I'd say he might just be focusing on bigger stuff and spite getting it in vs you pad.

yeah this + u know he just won a live tourney right? is pretty whatever, he obviously felt a bit oo a bit aaah and stuck it in, i dont think its gonna make it to the book. idk who tomtom is but seems pretty bad get in to me

How many tables has he got?  Does he even know it is the bubble?   Think I must play the bubble sub optimally if this is obviously bad.  I am a kind of fk it, get them in kind of player obv.  Probably play too much Hilo these days.

Your exit hand was more interesting, 

Exit was me opening co with kts Chris Oliver 3bet button and we were 3/13 and 4/13 he's so fkn aggro don't think I can ever fold to him would fold k9s but gta make a stand.

Even if he did know it was the bubble, why would he care about a $77 pay jump? I think his jam is absolutely fine

Pair tho.

Sounds like you got daized

Almost certainly -$ev and +cEV.

I would guess Moorman knows this and just didn't care about $44 bubble and would rather get a stack to try and do wins.

I really doubt Moorman got to where he is today by "not caring" about bubbles or making -EV plays because he didn't care / it was "only" $44.

I've been on tables where's he's used a 90 second time bank with 99% of his stack in the middle just to try and ladder a €8 pay jump or maybe even smaller.

Having said that maybe he's got the lot again now so things have changed.

yeah this, wtf, he's a good player not some rich idiot. i'd say it's far more likely he either didn't realise it was the bubble or was tilted. if he looks at this objectively i don't think it's a jam but idk maybe it is?

I know next to nothing about poker tournaments, ICM or such things. But is this not a good spot to imagine it is 2005 and stop-and-go? Or is MTT poker far too clever and sophisticated for such things nowadays?

I don't think this spot can be argued as being particularly well or not well played, can put up a good argument for folding or shoving: -

Shove - we're not worrying about the bubble, we want a big cash and to give us a chance see this as a good spot to gii flipping a high % of the time... we're on the bubble so know the big stacks will be raising light frequently... We also have 7 bs with antes in play, will we get a better spot?

Fold - min-cash, secure a profit, then we can gii

From a bankroll perspective, I'd expect Moorman is likely to be more risk-inclined in such spots as he wants a better prospect of a big cash. Easier to take risks when the impact if negligible to your 'business expenses'. Does he gii on the bubble of the Wsop main event in this spot? I think not.

The point is not that he doesnT care about $ but that space on his screen and the concentration needed to play another mtt outweigh the icm considerations

Moorman has 100% not done anything blatantly -EV cos it's just $44, the idea of him gambling to get a big stack over very basic profitable, professional tournament play is just not possible IMO. He either thinks the play IS +EV or he's just made a mistake, which can happen.

Agree, him making a mistake not that interesting but him thinking it's a good shove is interesting to consider because he's the best ldo.

I am not even sure this is going to be -EV.  He gets 2/1 to so, so his stack only has to increase its worth by 50% for taking on a race to be good.  He is against an opponent who he may think is an aggro spanner; Pleno could be raising every hand here for instance.  It wouldn't be the first time I saw someone raise fold some dross from this spot, people do far weirder folds than this.  If your average aggro player is running over the table, does he want to be showing the worst parts of his range etc.

Your average stack here is going to be worth $300 or so, so it isn't like the immininent min cash is going to be a big chunk of that.  Plus a 20k stack is so much better than a 7k one in the hands of someone like Moorman (or Pads).

Just don't see how this can be obv bad as some say and others imply.  I instinctively shove here, and don't think it can be that far wrong, fk the bubble.  And I am not convinced I could use the 20k stack as well as Moorman or Pads could.

He probably had bubble protection

top drawer that

Worked out a way to do some ICM calculations on this spot for an MTT bubble type situation.  I have had to scale it down a bit, but I ran this spot for a 180 man tournament with 27 paid and 28 people remaining.  I know it's not perfect but the results should be pretty close.  I have the average stack in the tournament at 10bb, and I have put a few <2bb stacks into the equation too.

I have assumed that pads is opening 50% of hands here will be calling off 100% of the time.

The results suggest that ICM-wise, we should jam with:  (25.2%) 44+,A2s+,A3o+,K8s+,K9o+,QTs+,QJo  and 44 nets us $9.80 profit.

The slight shortfall in this calculation are that the min cash is slightly bigger in the Hotter 44 than a 180 man, so this spot is probably not quite as possible as this calculation suggests.  I still don't think this is burning money like has been suggested previously.


As a back up, I also ran this calculation for pads opening 30% of hands and calling 100%, and it suggests we should shove:  (12.8%) 44+,A7s+,A8o+,KQs  with 44 only netting us a $1.80 profit vs this range.

Thank you. I was quite pleased with it.

On the advice of others I have also adjusted this for a slightly more staggered payout than a 180 man, using the Hot 109 structure and payouts from last night instead.  This is assuming 226 entries, 36 paid, 37 left and 20.45% of the prizepool up top and a bigger min cash than a 180.  Unfortunately ICMIZER won't do bubbles bigger than 60 players for some reason.

This suggests: (16.6%) 55+,A4s+,A7o+,KTs+,KJo+  with 44 being a slight negative.

Cliffs of thread:
<3 pairs
Moorman knows

Been watching a load of 180mtt stuff on Deucescracked and min cashing is of very little importance. They are going for the top spots. Suppose if you are rolled then these moves are fine.
Remember Moorman talking once about Tilt Shoving on all his tables at once and when he doubles up they are then lucky chips so he therefore cant lose (obv tongue in cheek on his behalf)

Moorman1 -

"Every multi tabling mtt player has to be able to tilt shove... Say you have 6 tables and u tilt shove all 6 of them with 20 bbs you will probably suck out on at least one of them and now you will have 40bbs and be in with a great shot of getting a top 3. Also after you have sucked out you will have lucky chips and won't get any bad beats in big pots, so as long as you don't donk it the prize money is as good as yours.

Not wanting to big myself up too much but I am 1 of the BEST at tilt shoving. The WCOOP 2nd chance event that I got 2nd in for $45k (obv brag) I tilt shoved 20 bbs with 92 soooooted into ak and sucked out with 400 left. These lucky chips got me to second place... If i had played properly I would probably of got my aces cracked or something."

Ha, amazing.