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Community Forums => Betting Tips and Sport Discussion => Topic started by: millidonk on May 07, 2014, 12:37:10 PM



Title: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on May 07, 2014, 12:37:10 PM
Thought it would be better for this to have it's own thread instead of cluttering up tft. Plus i'm sure there are others who are ridic excited for the wave of football about to engulf the planet who don't have time to read through nfl, swimming, chess and women's lacrosse info.

All world cup markets: http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/betting-markets (http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/betting-markets)


Something I have already bet is Dzeko Top Scorer EW @100/1 (EW is 1/4 odds for top 4)

Lots of reasons why I think this is a good ew bet:

His odds in the main are 66-80/1. VC are standout with 100/1
Bosnia 2nd fav to qualify in their group behind Argentina. Most likely to meet France if they get out of their group (France are beatable).
They have Nigeria and Iran in their group. Iran are one of the teams likely to concede the most goals and Nigeria have been awful of late.
He is known for coming up with the goods when it matters.
Been really impressed with him recently for City.
Scored 33/60 of his country's goals and 10 from 10 in this qualifying campaign.
He was booed off in his country's game where they lost to Egypt so will be wanting to put things right (he was injured when travelling to the game, asked to come off but the manager made him play anyway)
These Eastern European types have a knack of binking the golden boot in the WC. Salenko and Suker in 94/98.

3 to 4 goals is almost always enough to see you get paid on the each way bet. He could get all of them just vs Iran.. 1 vs Nigeria and nick 1 vs Argentina or France and we could have a mega sweat..




Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Kmac84 on May 07, 2014, 02:01:59 PM
Efe Ambrose is sure to peak for the WC so Djeko not scoting against Nigeria ;-)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on May 07, 2014, 02:09:01 PM
Efe Ambrose is sure to peak for the WC so Djeko not scoting against Nigeria ;-)

He'll just have to score 4 vs Iran then. :)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Tal on May 07, 2014, 07:57:16 PM
Subscribed


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: superwomble on May 07, 2014, 08:07:21 PM
Good idea milli and nice banzai, gl!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on May 07, 2014, 08:08:40 PM
Subscribed

Come on Westwood. ;)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Tal on May 07, 2014, 08:11:16 PM
Subscribed

Come on Westwood. ;)

So thought I'd got that through!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: horseplayer on May 08, 2014, 01:28:52 PM
You cant argue with Edin at 100/1 Here is a little bio for you Milli for the run good.

Interesting Bosnia have only picked two strikers in the squad.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BnEPmpNIMAEEnbt.jpg)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on May 13, 2014, 09:07:27 AM
Missed that bio horsey, never showed up when I read it on my phone. Very nice, gotta love Edin! Sick finish to the season as well. Always comes up with the big goals. Fingers crossed he carries it through.


This made me chuckle when browsing oddscheker this morning:

(http://i1233.photobucket.com/albums/ff384/Milligan84/popularbets_zps3257e0b0.png) (http://s1233.photobucket.com/user/Milligan84/media/popularbets_zps3257e0b0.png.html)

Gotta love our blind patriotism.


I've added my second bet to my world cup portfolio.

Edinson Cavani TGS E/W 40/1

Reasons:

6 from 6 in qualifying
16 from 25 for PSG
Uruguay are 1/2 to qualify from our group
He is as low as 28/1 in places so we got some value pie
If Suarez plays well he will be dishing out assists left, right and centre as well as scoring himself.
Out of the 4 world cups held in South America all 4 have been won by South American teams (twice by Uruguay). The 2 in Mexico (similiar conditions) were also won by South American teams.
If I am correct Spain and Brazil are on the other side of the draw so we could get a deece run.


I have also come across some shorter price stuff which I think is pretty deece: Dzeko to be top scorer for Bosnia 13/8 seems massive.

One of the bets I liked seems to have already come in. It was England Over 5.5 goals for the tournament @ evs. Can only see 8/11 now with Betfair. Hoping more bookies price up stuff like this as we get closer.

For anyone who didn't know (as I didn't until this morning) on oddschecker if you click the individual nation's flags at the top of the page you get all the country specials.



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Kmac84 on May 13, 2014, 06:33:09 PM
Do we buy into the philosophy that European nations cannot win in South America or is the sample size not ample?

Can we expect any of the African nations to spring a shock. 

If the answers for you are yes, no as they are for me do we like any the South American teams outwith Brazil/Argentina at bigger prices?

I am happy to fire a few darts at Chille/Colombia/Mexico/Honduras and hope one or two make the semis for a nice free roll for the final.

I honestly don't have much of an opinion on much else as my knowledge of many he teams is below the required level. 


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: redarmi on May 13, 2014, 07:44:30 PM
Do we buy into the philosophy that European nations cannot win in South America or is the sample size not ample?

Can we expect any of the African nations to spring a shock. 

If the answers for you are yes, no as they are for me do we like any the South American teams outwith Brazil/Argentina at bigger prices?

I am happy to fire a few darts at Chille/Colombia/Mexico/Honduras and hope one or two make the semis for a nice free roll for the final.

I honestly don't have much of an opinion on much else as my knowledge of many he teams is below the required level. 

I really don't buy into this stuff about the Euro teams being at a big disadvantage.  All previous South American world cups were played pre 1980 and travel has changed a great deal since then.  The euro teams are going to be pampered and looked after beyond belief.  In previous tournaments the euro teams would have had horrendously difficult travelling arrangements, very different food to get used to etc but nowadays all of those risks are eliminated almost completely and the modern footballer is used to travelling fairly extensively.  Also altitude is less likely to be an issue in this world cup than others played in this area especially Mexico.  There will obviously be some element of home advantage but I would be surprised if it is as big as is generally expected.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: KitKeeper on May 14, 2014, 07:02:56 PM
Cavani now 50/1 with sportingbet.

---

Hello, long time reader, first time poster etc...


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: tikay on May 14, 2014, 07:06:13 PM
Cavani now 50/1 with sportingbet.

---

Hello, long time reader, first time poster etc...

Welcome to blonde, Mr Keeper, or if I may be familiar, Kit.

Tell us a little about yourself, please.

Hope you enjoy blonde, any questions, fire away.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: KitKeeper on May 14, 2014, 07:47:47 PM
Cavani now 50/1 with sportingbet.

---

Hello, long time reader, first time poster etc...

Welcome to blonde, Mr Keeper, or if I may be familiar, Kit.

Tell us a little about yourself, please.

Hope you enjoy blonde, any questions, fire away.

Thanks, Mr Kay, or if I may be familiar, Ti.

Been a reader for a while now and although I used to play poker a lot, I now pretty much stick to sports betting with varying levels of success.

The forum has done well for me on a few occasions recently so I thought I'd contribute and give something back. Sort of.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on May 14, 2014, 11:28:38 PM
Welcome Mr KK. Did you see Cavani @50s on Betfair? I had a look as was happy to press at that price but 40/1 still seems to be best price at the bookies,  28/1 in some places. Probs with Betfair is that we don't get the value from the ew part of the bet as it is win only I think.

You got any fancies for the WC yet yourself?


Edit, my bad, you said sportingbet. I am completely blind, should really stop posting on my phone. Can't see any reason  for this price tbh. Will have to investigate further


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: DropTheHammer on May 18, 2014, 06:31:36 PM
Dzeko to be top scorer for Bosnia 13/8 seems massive.

I really like this bet, am on!

I've also bet Ivory Coast to qualify from their group at evens and be the best African team at 6/4.

I think betting e/w in the golden boot market on Aguero (16s) and Higuain (25s) will be profitable.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on May 18, 2014, 06:35:52 PM
Balotelli e/w 40-1 1/4 1,2,3,4

ideally need a player who takes pens in the golden boot, needing 6 goals to win it typically

first or 2nd in the italy group gets 1st or 2nd in colombia/ivory coast so there is a path to the quarters there

i think 10-1 balotelli to finish in the top 4 is great value compared to say aguero or higuain who aren't on pens for argentina. aguero has never taken a pen for argentina. granted, they could play 7 games, italy might not!

--

amongst the favourites think neymar is much better value than messi

--

quite like remy at 100-1 amongst the outsiders


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on May 18, 2014, 11:57:30 PM
Really like the top 2 in this market. They are in the hardest groups and don't have any outstanding goal threats.

Think you could back both ew profitably, think we would be really unlucky to be outside the top 3.

I can see both teams scoring maybe 1 goal.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/lowest-scoring-team


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: McGlashan on May 19, 2014, 12:53:22 AM
Balotelli e/w 40-1 1/4 1,2,3,4

ideally need a player who takes pens in the golden boot, needing 6 goals to win it typically

first or 2nd in the italy group gets 1st or 2nd in colombia/ivory coast so there is a path to the quarters there

i think 10-1 balotelli to finish in the top 4 is great value compared to say aguero or higuain who aren't on pens for argentina. aguero has never taken a pen for argentina. granted, they could play 7 games, italy might not!

--

amongst the favourites think neymar is much better value than messi

--

quite like remy at 100-1 amongst the outsiders

None of the front runners are too eye catching despite wanting a player from a team that will make the semi's.

Ballotelli made my short list, I like him now a firm has gone 40's instead of 33's.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mondatoo on May 19, 2014, 01:00:01 AM
Just me that thinks the Dutch at 33/1 seems decent ?

Don't think Spain are a lock to win that Group, with 2nd most likely playing Brazil.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: McGlashan on May 19, 2014, 01:37:06 AM
Top scorer for the Spain national team http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/spain/top-goalscorer (http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/spain/top-goalscorer)

Spain are due to name their final 23 man squad any time now. At the previous world cup, euro's and confederations cup Vincent Del Bosque has always taken 3 strikers + Pedro and Fabregas. We can expect the final 3 strikers to be Costa, Negredo + 1.

This was a market of interest as Spain's stock of strikers is higher than in their previous false 9 years. So far nobody has settled in the role with Soldado, Villa, Negredo, Fabregas and Michu all starting up front at some point in qualifying.

Costa 7-2
He's expected to be the first choice striker. With only 1 cap and 2 warm up games to go he could struggle to adapt to the Spanish style of possession football which is entirely different to Atleti's way of playing. There's high expectations on his shoulders hence why his disappointing performance against Itlay was panned.

Negredo 13/2
Before Costa switched his allegiance he looked likely to be first choice when fit. His game time will be questionable.

Fabregas 9-1
Should see plenty game time in center/ advanced center mid. Could play as a false 9 in the knockout, must not lose games. His goals scoring record does not appeal though.

Pedro 9-1
He'll be first choice in an advanced role on the left. If for tactical reasons they play someone else in that role then Pedro becomes first choice on the right.
He was top scored in qualifying with 5 goals, 1 ahead of Negredo. This was helped by 8 + (2) appearances and a hat-trick against Belarus.
In a similar number of appearances for Barca this season he had 14 goals to Cesc's 8.

As one of the few forward players with guaranteed game time Pedro looks a good bet @ 9-1.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Jamier-Host on May 19, 2014, 03:11:53 AM
Really like the top 2 in this market. They are in the hardest groups and don't have any outstanding goal threats.

Think you could back both ew profitably, think we would be really unlucky to be outside the top 3.

I can see both teams scoring maybe 1 goal.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/lowest-scoring-team

Like the 15/2 Bet365 are offering on Iran myself. Interesting market, although remember the odd random set of results. e.g France scored none one year.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on May 19, 2014, 12:31:02 PM
Really like the top 2 in this market. They are in the hardest groups and don't have any outstanding goal threats.

Think you could back both ew profitably, think we would be really unlucky to be outside the top 3.

I can see both teams scoring maybe 1 goal.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/lowest-scoring-team

Like the 15/2 Bet365 are offering on Iran myself. Interesting market, although remember the odd random set of results. e.g France scored none one year.

I'm also on Iran for this. Australia will certainly struggle but I can see them sneaking one and can certainly see Costa Rica getting one or two.

Note on anyone backing Costa; maybe wait to see if he plays on Saturday as he picked up an injury in the barca game. There was talk that he could even miss out on WC although could be scare tactics.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Marky147 on May 19, 2014, 12:33:13 PM
Really like the top 2 in this market. They are in the hardest groups and don't have any outstanding goal threats.

Think you could back both ew profitably, think we would be really unlucky to be outside the top 3.

I can see both teams scoring maybe 1 goal.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/lowest-scoring-team

Like the 15/2 Bet365 are offering on Iran myself. Interesting market, although remember the odd random set of results. e.g France scored none one year.

I'm also on Iran for this. Australia will certainly struggle but I can see them sneaking one and can certainly see Costa Rica getting one or two.

Note on anyone backing Costa; maybe wait to see if he plays on Saturday as he picked up an injury in the barca game. There was talk that he could even miss out on WC although could be scare tactics.

Scared me enough to level out my position a little...


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on May 19, 2014, 12:38:46 PM
Really like the top 2 in this market. They are in the hardest groups and don't have any outstanding goal threats.

Think you could back both ew profitably, think we would be really unlucky to be outside the top 3.

I can see both teams scoring maybe 1 goal.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/lowest-scoring-team

Like the 15/2 Bet365 are offering on Iran myself. Interesting market, although remember the odd random set of results. e.g France scored none one year.

I'm also on Iran for this. Australia will certainly struggle but I can see them sneaking one and can certainly see Costa Rica getting one or two.

Note on anyone backing Costa; maybe wait to see if he plays on Saturday as he picked up an injury in the barca game. There was talk that he could even miss out on WC although could be scare tactics.

Scared me enough to level out my position a little...

If talking about lowest scoring bet then meh, it's the world cup, anything can happen (or at least that's what I keep telling myself when I press 100/1 shots) :)

If Costa, then meh probs just get a refunded bet if he doesn't play at all, although wading in and him being injured or coming on as sub or whatever would be pretty brutal.

"Greening out" and "levelling my position" are not phrases I comprehend. :)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Marky147 on May 19, 2014, 12:44:45 PM
Really like the top 2 in this market. They are in the hardest groups and don't have any outstanding goal threats.

Think you could back both ew profitably, think we would be really unlucky to be outside the top 3.

I can see both teams scoring maybe 1 goal.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/lowest-scoring-team

Like the 15/2 Bet365 are offering on Iran myself. Interesting market, although remember the odd random set of results. e.g France scored none one year.

I'm also on Iran for this. Australia will certainly struggle but I can see them sneaking one and can certainly see Costa Rica getting one or two.

Note on anyone backing Costa; maybe wait to see if he plays on Saturday as he picked up an injury in the barca game. There was talk that he could even miss out on WC although could be scare tactics.

Scared me enough to level out my position a little...

If talking about lowest scoring bet then meh, it's the world cup, anything can happen (or at least that's what I keep telling myself when I press 100/1 shots) :)

If Costa, then meh probs just get a refunded bet if he doesn't play at all, although wading in and him being injured or coming on as sub or whatever would be pretty brutal.

"Greening out" and "levelling my position" are not phrases I comprehend. :)

I'm talking about Champs League final on Saturday :D


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on May 19, 2014, 12:48:15 PM
Really like the top 2 in this market. They are in the hardest groups and don't have any outstanding goal threats.

Think you could back both ew profitably, think we would be really unlucky to be outside the top 3.

I can see both teams scoring maybe 1 goal.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/lowest-scoring-team

Like the 15/2 Bet365 are offering on Iran myself. Interesting market, although remember the odd random set of results. e.g France scored none one year.

I'm also on Iran for this. Australia will certainly struggle but I can see them sneaking one and can certainly see Costa Rica getting one or two.

Note on anyone backing Costa; maybe wait to see if he plays on Saturday as he picked up an injury in the barca game. There was talk that he could even miss out on WC although could be scare tactics.

Scared me enough to level out my position a little...

If talking about lowest scoring bet then meh, it's the world cup, anything can happen (or at least that's what I keep telling myself when I press 100/1 shots) :)

If Costa, then meh probs just get a refunded bet if he doesn't play at all, although wading in and him being injured or coming on as sub or whatever would be pretty brutal.

"Greening out" and "levelling my position" are not phrases I comprehend. :)

I'm talking about Champs League final on Saturday :D

Ahhhh. Yeah defo do that.

I don't think he was faking it..

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VqW1fVKWME

(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/05/17/article-2631324-1DF219A100000578-672_634x400.jpg)


tbf he was crying less than I would be if for some reason I couldn't watch the world cup, let alone not play in it!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on May 19, 2014, 01:43:04 PM
Lukaku 5/2 a good thing? or you'd rather have Hazard at 6-1?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/belgium/top-goalscorer


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on May 19, 2014, 02:24:06 PM
Lukaku 5/2 a good thing? or you'd rather have Hazard at 6-1?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/belgium/top-goalscorer

I think Hazard is value personally. I also think his 80/1 top goalscorer could have some legs. Chucked a fiver on him last week just for sweats.

Currently looking at Player of tournament again, had an early punt on Fred @ 100/1 which seems to have shortened a bit but I reckon there will be some good bets out there to be had in this market. I thought Hazard and Robben could be a bet but Hazard is 25-33/1 for the golden ball (which I thought was quite short) and Robben is 50/1 which I think I might bet, although the stats are not really with me on this one unless I can see him scoring 5.

Golden ball winners:

2010: Diego Forlan - Uruguay - Forward (scored 5)
2006: Zidane - France - Attacking midfielder (scored 5) + (headbutted Materazzi award is given before the final I believe)
2002: Oliver Khan - Germany - Keeper - (5 clean sheeets)
1998: Ronaldo - Brazil - Striker (Scored 4)
1994: Romario - Brazil - Striker (Scored 5)
1990: Schillaci - Italy - Striker (Scored 6)
1986: Maradonna - Argentina - Striker (Scored 5)

Trying to see if there are correlations between hosts, finishing positions, playing positions, etc. So far I have deduced defenders don't seem to have much luck in winning it.. you want a player who can bang them in from a team likely to go the distance.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: aaron1867 on May 19, 2014, 02:33:19 PM
I like England's group to be the lowest scoring at 7-1.

England & Italy are hardly the most attacking units & in everyone of the games between the top 3 it will likely to be games where each team will want to hold for 1-0, because the group is so tight.

Not sure on Costa Rica but I can't see them being that bad that they are getting over 3 knocked pat them every game.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: bergeroo on May 19, 2014, 02:40:41 PM
Lukaku 5/2 a good thing? or you'd rather have Hazard at 6-1?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/belgium/top-goalscorer

Just looked at the squad and none of them have more than 9 international goals. Hazard takes the pens though I think, so....


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on May 19, 2014, 02:42:13 PM
Got ten specials i like the look of. can explain where necessary

in no particular order

- Greece lowest scoring team 16-1

- Top Dutch scorer Memphis Depay 20-1

- Highest scoring group F 7-1

- Argentina to make at least semis 11/10 Yes.. (no is 8/13)

- Ivica Olic top Croatia scorer 8-1

- Milner to start first Eng game 6/4

- Hazard top belgian 6-1 as above

- 5 (of 6) S American teams to get through the groups 19/10 (if you assume Braz, Arg, Chile, Colom should make it, Ecuador unlikely you effectively get 19/10 Uruguay to qualify, they are 1/2 in the qualification market)

- Dzeko now 7/4 top Bosnian scorer 

- Algeria 6-1 to get out of Group H



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on May 19, 2014, 02:45:33 PM
Lukaku 5/2 a good thing? or you'd rather have Hazard at 6-1?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/belgium/top-goalscorer

Just looked at the squad and none of them have more than 9 international goals. Hazard takes the pens though I think, so....

its an interesting market

5/2 lukaku, 6/1 hazard 8/1 bar

side typically plays 4-2-3-1 so Lukaku up with Hazard central in behind probably

http://us.soccerway.com/matches/2014/03/05/world/friendlies/belgium/cote-divoire/1617993/

Hazard on pens, you would think

not too easy to see a springer at a price (mirrllas, mertens etc) getting more than the top two in the market so looks a very solid bet i think


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: bergeroo on May 19, 2014, 02:49:02 PM
I like England's group to be the lowest scoring at 7-1.

England & Italy are hardly the most attacking units & in everyone of the games between the top 3 it will likely to be games where each team will want to hold for 1-0, because the group is so tight.

Not sure on Costa Rica but I can't see them being that bad that they are getting over 3 knocked pat them every game.

I would agree and I have no idea how group C is the hot favourite for this. Because of Greece? Surely Cote D'Ivoire and Columbia will play at least somewhat open?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on May 19, 2014, 02:50:06 PM
Next door's punting firm seem way ool with some of their prices. Just whacked some on for Golden Ball; Muller 40/1 (20 - 33/1 elsewhere) and Negredo 100/1 (40 - 50/1 elsewhere).


Only surprised by 2 of your list there Tighty:

Greece lowest scoring team? Colombia, Ivory Coast + Japan. I can see them scoring at least 2, plus Samaras is a beast.
Algeria. Assuming we are thinking Belgium to top the group comfortably and Algeria to see off Russia? Interested about this one.

Love the world cup. This is going to be by far the most I have outlayed pre tournament before. Gulp.



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Doobs on May 19, 2014, 02:56:24 PM
Got ten specials i like the look of. can explain where necessary

in no particular order

- Greece lowest scoring team 16-1

- Top Dutch scorer Memphis Depay 20-1

- Highest scoring group F 7-1

- Argentina to make at least semis 11/10 Yes.. (no is 8/13)

- Ivica Olic top Croatia scorer 8-1

- Milner to start first Eng game 6/4

- Hazard top belgian 6-1 as above

- 5 (of 6) S American teams to get through the groups 19/10 (if you assume Braz, Arg, Chile, Colom should make it, Ecuador unlikely you effectively get 19/10 Uruguay to qualify, they are 1/2 in the qualification market)

- Dzeko now 7/4 top Bosnian scorer 

- Algeria 6-1 to get out of Group H



Think you have made a really big assumption on your teams that should qualify Rich.

Chile evens to qualify on Betfair.
Colombia 1/3

Those 2 alone get you nearly to 19/10 (~16.5/10).  Add in Brazil and Argentina's odds, you get just over 2/1.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on May 19, 2014, 03:00:11 PM
Next door's punting firm seem way ool with some of their prices. Just whacked some on for Golden Ball; Muller 40/1 (20 - 33/1 elsewhere) and Negredo 100/1 (40 - 50/1 elsewhere).


Only surprised by 2 of your list there Tighty:

Greece lowest scoring team? Colombia, Ivory Coast + Japan. I can see them scoring at least 2, plus Samaras is a beast.
Algeria. Assuming we are thinking Belgium to top the group comfortably and Algeria to see off Russia? Interested about this one.

Love the world cup. This is going to be by far the most I have outlayed pre tournament before. Gulp.



Greece.

Very defensive team. Recent friendly has them with Mitroglou the Fulham flop up front (though he did well in the play offs for them

"Portuguese coach Fernando Santos took over in 2010, but admits the legacy of predecessor Otto Rehhagel, under whom Greece won Euro 2004, remains "an identity that is not easy to change. We've tried to play a different way [but] then we slipped back into our comfort zone, our defensive strength." "

Very competitive Group, no pushovers to score goals. Japan and IC amongst the toughest teams in their seeding groupings. no iran, costa rica etc here

think its far too simplistic to look at the front of the market in lowest scorers...got to look at the most competitive groups where there isn't a pushover...



Algeria. One of the groups where I think second place is up for grabs. there is no natural goalsscorer in the russian team (kerzakhov and dzagoev out of form and favour with Capello recently), south Korea a shadow of the team of 2002-06

Algeria, v technically gifted and completely under-rated because they haven't played outside africa since 2010. I got to talk about them with a friend of a friend who translates for riyad mahrez who came over from france to lcfc, not speaking english and is in the world cup 30 for algeria. rates a player called Sofiane Feghouli, 23, highly

so i went and researched him "is an attacking midfielder or winger who was described by Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger a year ago as "exceptional" and "a physical beast"

so, possibly under-rated team, certainly an unknown team, in a group it looks possible to get out of. obviously you wouldn't fancy them to get out of a brazil/croatia/mexico or germany/portugal/ghana draw, but belgium/russia/korea and 6-1? speculative bet 


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on May 19, 2014, 03:01:00 PM
Got ten specials i like the look of. can explain where necessary

in no particular order

- Greece lowest scoring team 16-1

- Top Dutch scorer Memphis Depay 20-1

- Highest scoring group F 7-1

- Argentina to make at least semis 11/10 Yes.. (no is 8/13)

- Ivica Olic top Croatia scorer 8-1

- Milner to start first Eng game 6/4

- Hazard top belgian 6-1 as above

- 5 (of 6) S American teams to get through the groups 19/10 (if you assume Braz, Arg, Chile, Colom should make it, Ecuador unlikely you effectively get 19/10 Uruguay to qualify, they are 1/2 in the qualification market)

- Dzeko now 7/4 top Bosnian scorer 

- Algeria 6-1 to get out of Group H



Think you have made a really big assumption on your teams that should qualify Rich.

Chile evens to qualify on Betfair.
Colombia 1/3

Those 2 alone get you nearly to 19/10 (~16.5/10).  Add in Brazil and Argentina's odds, you get just over 2/1.

thank you.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on May 19, 2014, 03:11:45 PM
Fair points. I must admit the only things I know about Algeria are: Their nickname is the Fennec Foxes, they have not won a game in the world cup since 1982 and something like if they don't score in their first game they will break the record for most games in the world cup without scoring a single goal (although I am struggling to find the evidence to back up this fact), In 2010 their results were: Algeria 0 - 1 Slovenia, Algeria 0 - 0 England and Algeria 0 - USA 1 so guessing it could be true.

Fingers crossed this Feghouli can turn things around for them, they certainly don't concede many I will give them that!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: horseplayer on May 19, 2014, 03:22:53 PM
Feghouli is pretty well known to be fair

Been at Valencia since 2010

Not been great this season good player no superstar imo


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: KitKeeper on May 19, 2014, 08:23:14 PM
Marco Reus to be Germany's top goalscorer - 7/1...

Loew absolutely loves him and he scores a hell of a lot of goals as a midfielder... When you look at what's ahead of him, Klose really is getting on now and Reus's ratio is just as good as Muller's.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on May 20, 2014, 12:02:12 AM
Another one for the top scorer collection Hulk @ 50's with SJ

12's top Brazil scorer is huuuge


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on May 20, 2014, 12:08:01 AM
Next door's punting firm seem way ool with some of their prices. Just whacked some on for Golden Ball; Muller 40/1 (20 - 33/1 elsewhere) and Negredo 100/1 (40 - 50/1 elsewhere).


Only surprised by 2 of your list there Tighty:

Greece lowest scoring team? Colombia, Ivory Coast + Japan. I can see them scoring at least 2, plus Samaras is a beast.
Algeria. Assuming we are thinking Belgium to top the group comfortably and Algeria to see off Russia? Interested about this one.

Love the world cup. This is going to be by far the most I have outlayed pre tournament before. Gulp.



Greece.

Very defensive team. Recent friendly has them with Mitroglou the Fulham flop up front (though he did well in the play offs for them

"Portuguese coach Fernando Santos took over in 2010, but admits the legacy of predecessor Otto Rehhagel, under whom Greece won Euro 2004, remains "an identity that is not easy to change. We've tried to play a different way [but] then we slipped back into our comfort zone, our defensive strength." "

Very competitive Group, no pushovers to score goals. Japan and IC amongst the toughest teams in their seeding groupings. no iran, costa rica etc here

think its far too simplistic to look at the front of the market in lowest scorers...got to look at the most competitive groups where there isn't a pushover...



Algeria. One of the groups where I think second place is up for grabs. there is no natural goalsscorer in the russian team (kerzakhov and dzagoev out of form and favour with Capello recently), south Korea a shadow of the team of 2002-06

Algeria, v technically gifted and completely under-rated because they haven't played outside africa since 2010. I got to talk about them with a friend of a friend who translates for riyad mahrez who came over from france to lcfc, not speaking english and is in the world cup 30 for algeria. rates a player called Sofiane Feghouli, 23, highly

so i went and researched him "is an attacking midfielder or winger who was described by Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger a year ago as "exceptional" and "a physical beast"

so, possibly under-rated team, certainly an unknown team, in a group it looks possible to get out of. obviously you wouldn't fancy them to get out of a brazil/croatia/mexico or germany/portugal/ghana draw, but belgium/russia/korea and 6-1? speculative bet 

I can see the angle you're coming from, I thought about them but they do have a goal threat. The thing is if they need to win a game and they probably will even going to last game they will be a threat, as showcased in euro 2012. Japan/Ivory Coast defensively not great.

I tried to look at the opposition defences and the teams attacks. Can't see the top 2 in the market having too much of the ball v england/italy/uruguay/holland/spain/chile.

But again its all about opinions.





Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on May 20, 2014, 12:14:32 AM
Srna top Croatia scorer. Loves a free kick and still takes pens if i'm not mistaken. Plays full back (very attacking) or right wing. 16's with PP.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on May 20, 2014, 12:15:48 AM
Think some of these top scorer/player bets should wait til after 2nd of June once squads are confirmed. Can't imagine prices crashing too much


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on May 20, 2014, 12:28:01 AM
Top scoring group F @ 7's with BWay.

Nigeria/Iran/Bosnia and Messi and co.



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: MintTrav on May 20, 2014, 12:49:56 AM
I like England's group to be the lowest scoring at 7-1.

England & Italy are hardly the most attacking units & in everyone of the games between the top 3 it will likely to be games where each team will want to hold for 1-0, because the group is so tight.

Not sure on Costa Rica but I can't see them being that bad that they are getting over 3 knocked pat them every game.

People still trotting out that old myth? England, yeah, has always been one of the most defensive teams, but Italy is one of the most attacking and entertaining teams in the tournament.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: MintTrav on May 20, 2014, 12:51:06 AM
I like England's group to be the lowest scoring at 7-1.

England & Italy are hardly the most attacking units & in everyone of the games between the top 3 it will likely to be games where each team will want to hold for 1-0, because the group is so tight.

Not sure on Costa Rica but I can't see them being that bad that they are getting over 3 knocked pat them every game.

People still trotting out that old myth? England, yeah, has always been one of the most defensive teams, relying on counter-attacks, but Italy is one of the most attacking and entertaining teams in the tournament.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on May 21, 2014, 09:12:20 AM
Someone I follow on twitter was talking about betting teams to finish on x amount of pts. It's something I quite like the look of.

Was quite surprised to see the difference in prices, if you say a team is going to finish on 9 pts then they have to win all of their group games. Take Brazil & Argentina for example with CV bet:

Argentina v Bosnia 2/5
Argentina v Iran 1/6
Argentina v Nigeria 4/11

Brazil v Croatia 2/7
Brazil v Mexico 1/3
Brazil v Cameroon 2/11

A £1 acca pays £4.51 but a £1 double on Brazil (5/4) & Argentina (11/8) to finish on 9 pts pays £5.34

Am I missing something here? Would have thought the prices would have been close to identical.

Any way I think Brazil + Argentina to finish on 9pts is a bet. Will also throw in a family holiday acca with France, Germany & Belgium.



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: horseplayer on May 21, 2014, 10:49:19 AM
As per tft

Nigeria top african team at 4/1 is my only bet so far, and for me a fair bet.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: aaron1867 on May 21, 2014, 04:31:49 PM
I like England's group to be the lowest scoring at 7-1.

England & Italy are hardly the most attacking units & in everyone of the games between the top 3 it will likely to be games where each team will want to hold for 1-0, because the group is so tight.

Not sure on Costa Rica but I can't see them being that bad that they are getting over 3 knocked pat them every game.

People still trotting out that old myth? England, yeah, has always been one of the most defensive teams, relying on counter-attacks, but Italy is one of the most attacking and entertaining teams in the tournament.

They attack, they need to, but when they go 1-0 up they are a totally different unit.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: KitKeeper on May 21, 2014, 05:47:51 PM
As per tft

Nigeria top african team at 4/1 is my only bet so far, and for me a fair bet.

HP,

What is the scenario if no African team qualifies for Round 2... is it just the team on the most points?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: horseplayer on May 21, 2014, 06:08:17 PM
As per tft

Nigeria top african team at 4/1 is my only bet so far, and for me a fair bet.

HP,

What is the scenario if no African team qualifies for Round 2... is it just the team on the most points?

dead heat rules apply with the firm i checked with mate

not entirely sure on all the others tbh


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: KitKeeper on May 21, 2014, 10:31:01 PM
Lukaku 5/2 a good thing? or you'd rather have Hazard at 6-1?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/belgium/top-goalscorer

Been looking a bit more at this market and, setting myself up for a massive fall come WC time, I'm not entirely convinced Hazard is the best bet.

His international goalscoring record isn't pretty and he plays a different way with his national team than he does with Chelsea.

I reckon the value shout possibly lies with Kevin de Bruyne... he's only scored 4 in 18, but all those 4 came in qualifying and he has now cemented himself as a regular starter.

He's an arguably attractive 10/1 with Paddy Power.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Ironside on May 22, 2014, 09:45:07 AM
Is it too so onto admit I actually like 3 lions, even the Germans have adopted it is it a once in a lifetime song will there ever be a made for football song that can ever match it?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on May 22, 2014, 09:59:50 AM
What we think of Gerrard top England scorer at 12s?

Takes pens, we won't score many and has a couple from open play also...


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Nakor on May 22, 2014, 10:00:20 AM
Suarez out of the world cup???
Will do well to be fit for the England game at least.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27514880


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: KitKeeper on May 23, 2014, 08:28:45 PM
Like Group F for highest scoring group.

Argentina and Bosnia should have a chunk of goals against the other two and without having incredible defences, won't be keeping clean sheets imo.

13/2 with Sportingbet.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on May 24, 2014, 09:58:46 AM
For people with too much time on their hands:

Predict result of every game then it gives  you the group results and who will be in the quarters vs who all the way to the final.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup/10501412/World-Cup-2014-Wallchart-Predictor-Game.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup/10501412/World-Cup-2014-Wallchart-Predictor-Game.html)

I had:

Germany v Brazil final (Germany wins 2 -1)
Portugal V Spain for 3rd & 4th position (Spain wins 2-1)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: horseplayer on May 24, 2014, 09:59:40 AM
Like Group F for highest scoring group.

Argentina and Bosnia should have a chunk of goals against the other two and without having incredible defences, won't be keeping clean sheets imo.

13/2 with Sportingbet.

Like the look of this

A lot infact


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on May 24, 2014, 10:16:57 AM
Like Group F for highest scoring group.

Argentina and Bosnia should have a chunk of goals against the other two and without having incredible defences, won't be keeping clean sheets imo.

13/2 with Sportingbet.

Like the look of this

A lot infact

Maldini tipped this at 7/1. Get with the programme horsey. ;)

I also think it's a good spot.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Josedinho on May 24, 2014, 12:51:07 PM
I've got Muller top goalscorer and England to win it @ 1000/1
I'm not sure I need any other bets. 


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: anthonyl on May 25, 2014, 09:57:26 PM
Thoughts on 3/1 for there to be 165 or over in goals?

Would be a fun one to sweat!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on May 25, 2014, 11:52:56 PM
Fun bet, surely a max?

A pundit to call Belgium a dark horse.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/specials


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: pokerfan on May 26, 2014, 12:18:58 AM
Next door's punting firm seem way ool with some of their prices. Just whacked some on for Golden Ball; Muller 40/1 (20 - 33/1 elsewhere) and Negredo 100/1 (40 - 50/1 elsewhere).


Only surprised by 2 of your list there Tighty:

Greece lowest scoring team? Colombia, Ivory Coast + Japan. I can see them scoring at least 2, plus Samaras is a beast.
Algeria. Assuming we are thinking Belgium to top the group comfortably and Algeria to see off Russia? Interested about this one.

Love the world cup. This is going to be by far the most I have outlayed pre tournament before. Gulp.



Greece.

Very defensive team. Recent friendly has them with Mitroglou the Fulham flop up front (though he did well in the play offs for them

"Portuguese coach Fernando Santos took over in 2010, but admits the legacy of predecessor Otto Rehhagel, under whom Greece won Euro 2004, remains "an identity that is not easy to change. We've tried to play a different way [but] then we slipped back into our comfort zone, our defensive strength." "

Very competitive Group, no pushovers to score goals. Japan and IC amongst the toughest teams in their seeding groupings. no iran, costa rica etc here

think its far too simplistic to look at the front of the market in lowest scorers...got to look at the most competitive groups where there isn't a pushover...



Algeria. One of the groups where I think second place is up for grabs. there is no natural goalsscorer in the russian team (kerzakhov and dzagoev out of form and favour with Capello recently), south Korea a shadow of the team of 2002-06

Algeria, v technically gifted and completely under-rated because they haven't played outside africa since 2010. I got to talk about them with a friend of a friend who translates for riyad mahrez who came over from france to lcfc, not speaking english and is in the world cup 30 for algeria. rates a player called Sofiane Feghouli, 23, highly

so i went and researched him "is an attacking midfielder or winger who was described by Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger a year ago as "exceptional" and "a physical beast"

so, possibly under-rated team, certainly an unknown team, in a group it looks possible to get out of. obviously you wouldn't fancy them to get out of a brazil/croatia/mexico or germany/portugal/ghana draw, but belgium/russia/korea and 6-1? speculative bet 

Greece no group goals 37-1 .


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on May 26, 2014, 06:49:54 AM
What price would you want on Messi not to score for it to be attractive?

Fair to say he scores about one in two on average for Argentina and you'd expect him to take pens...


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on May 26, 2014, 09:58:55 AM
If you've not done it yet, check out @Sportingbet_com's £100,000 World Cup competition. Pick 1st and 2nd in each group. 1st entry is free.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: DropTheHammer on May 26, 2014, 10:11:03 AM
Greece no group goals 37-1 .

Who did you bet this with, I can only see SkyBet offering 0 Group goals at 11s?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: superwomble on May 26, 2014, 10:24:24 AM
Greece no group goals 37-1 .

Who did you bet this with, I can only see SkyBet offering 0 Group goals at 11s?

This was Ladjokes I think.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on May 26, 2014, 10:50:41 AM
What price would you want on Messi not to score for it to be attractive?

Fair to say he scores about one in two on average for Argentina and you'd expect him to take pens...

30/1+ off the top of my head. Is it priced up anywhere?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Waz1892 on May 26, 2014, 11:09:21 AM
Thoughts on 3/1 for there to be 165 or over in goals?

Would be a fun one to sweat!

146 has been the average since 1990.  The last 3 World cups having played 64 games is 156.  The trend is getting lower though...171, 161, 147, 145.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: DropTheHammer on May 26, 2014, 11:09:38 AM
What price would you want on Messi not to score for it to be attractive?

Fair to say he scores about one in two on average for Argentina and you'd expect him to take pens...

30/1+ off the top of my head. Is it priced up anywhere?

It's in Paddy's specials and 14/1


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on May 26, 2014, 12:11:01 PM
What price would you want on Messi not to score for it to be attractive?

Fair to say he scores about one in two on average for Argentina and you'd expect him to take pens...

30/1+ off the top of my head. Is it priced up anywhere?

It's in Paddy's specials and 14/1

meh, wouldn't be getting too excited about that. My theory was say he is probs about evens to score and plays x 5 matches minimum.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: DropTheHammer on May 26, 2014, 01:03:47 PM
Thoughts on 3/1 for there to be 165 or over in goals?

Would be a fun one to sweat!

146 has been the average since 1990.  The last 3 World cups having played 64 games is 156.  The trend is getting lower though...171, 161, 147, 145.

I did the predictor where you put in every result and got 119 goals, so have bet under 155 tournament goals with Bet365 at 13/10.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: pokerfan on May 26, 2014, 01:15:50 PM
Greece no group goals 37-1 .

Who did you bet this with, I can only see SkyBet offering 0 Group goals at 11s?

This was Ladjokes I think.

Yeah, was via the oddschecker link posted earlier.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on May 26, 2014, 06:26:04 PM
What price would you want on Messi not to score for it to be attractive?

Fair to say he scores about one in two on average for Argentina and you'd expect him to take pens...

30/1+ off the top of my head. Is it priced up anywhere?

It's in Paddy's specials and 14/1

meh, wouldn't be getting too excited about that. My theory was say he is probs about evens to score and plays x 5 matches minimum.

Yeah had similar thoughts, just wondered if I was wildly out given he's 'not in form' heh


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: anthonyl on May 26, 2014, 08:13:00 PM
Thoughts on 3/1 for there to be 165 or over in goals?

Would be a fun one to sweat!

146 has been the average since 1990.  The last 3 World cups having played 64 games is 156.  The trend is getting lower though...171, 161, 147, 145.

Hmmm. 3/1 seems a bit short then, will see if can get 4.5/1 or better anywhere.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on May 26, 2014, 08:39:43 PM
Bosnia's total tournament goals (including extra time) with SPIN is 4 - 4.4.

That's a big buy for me


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Tal on May 30, 2014, 08:53:09 PM
That was a surprisingly good goal in a dire match.

This is exactly how I expect we will be playing in Brazil: slow passing, going nowhere and hoping for a bit of magic.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on May 30, 2014, 08:58:14 PM
That was a surprisingly good goal in a dire match.

This is exactly how I expect we will be playing in Brazil: slow passing, going nowhere and hoping for a bit of magic.

Unfortunately I agree with every word.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: FUN4FRASER on May 30, 2014, 09:32:02 PM
That was a surprisingly good goal in a dire match.

This is exactly how I expect we will be playing in Brazil: slow passing, going nowhere and hoping for a bit of magic.

More or Less summed it up

I like to be an optimist and get behind England but Sturridges Goal has just masked a poor performance , add to that the woeful ITV commentary and the monotone team they have assembled it could be a painful few weeks ahead  !


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Marky147 on May 30, 2014, 09:34:01 PM
I've punted on a few things, but none of them involve England, and that should mean I'm live until quite deep in the comp...


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: FUN4FRASER on May 30, 2014, 11:14:29 PM
I noticed tonight that Cahill and Jagielka went up for every corner/set piece and obv both scored

England are in a difficult group D and are favourites with the bookies not to progress so if that is the case they would only play 3 games so an odd goal could decide the Top England goalscorer market .

Historically these markets have quite often resulted in dead / joint dead heats so with our two first choice centre halves priced at 40 and 100 -1 respectively they could be worth a small punt at fancy prices.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/england/top-goalscorer


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: McGlashan on May 31, 2014, 01:48:47 AM
Uruguay 0 N Ireland 0 at half time.

Every time I've seen them (mainly in the Confederations cup) they've been utterly underwhelming.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Spudy on May 31, 2014, 10:04:11 PM
Does anyone else have any opinion on who will will the actual trophy itself? Theres lots of ideas about who is going to be top goal scorer etc but is there no opinions about who is going to win it, bar the mention for Belgiuim, which I would say aint worth following at its current price which looks too short at 16-1, but they were worth a bet quite some time ago at 100-1.

Basically, in my opinion, the World cup is typically won by 4 teams, Brazil, Germany, Italy and Argentina. There are exceptions to this, typically when some teams win it when they are the host nation, Uruguay 1930s, England 1966 and France 1998. the only other exception to this would be Spain, when the tournament was held in South Africa in 2010. Brazil are the hosts which rules out an oddity happening, will be interesting to see what happens in Qatar.

Obviously there the geographical factor, which can or cannot be discounted depending on your view. in South America the tournament has always been won by a South American team which would leave you with two from the mentioned above four, Brazil or Argentina. The sample size is small granted, but i would suggest it is certainly more beneficial for those teams such as Brazil or Argentina rather than a hinderance. The players are more likely to feel at home, than say italy Spain or Germany for that matter.

With Spain and Germany in horrific groups, and Italy not being the force they normally are, it would leave us with the top two in the betting which is no great surprise.

It is very rare for the Worlds best player, who plays for the big four, so to speak, to not win the World cup. i would suggest that Lionel Messi, as he is peaking at 26 I believe has an amazing chance to lead his country to victory in six weeks time. the only exception to this is Zico who never won it, but that is subject to personal opinion.

People can talk about Cristian Ronaldo being currently worlds best, but I couldnt even name one other team member, and they wouldnt even be a bet for the Euros, never mind a World cup

Quite whether a young Neymar will be able to cope with the pressure placed on his shoulders like Ronaldo in 1998 when he had a fit, remains to be seen, and I imagine, a World Cup win is too soon for the young man.

Also with the various problems Brazil are facing economically and socially, that cannot benefit the teams morale, with so many protests going on, it surely is a burden that they could do without.

Argentina, whos balance appears much better than 4 years ago, having breezed through qualification, with toxic Tevez effectively removed from the squad after the Man City substitute debacle, so the team revolves around Messi alone, are surely the bet at a best priced 9-2. the group win is surely a cert and a final against Brazil is a good probability

Di maria is very impressive, and with Higuian, and Aguero up front, with Messi pulling strings in midfield, they have without question the best attacking line up, instantly putting others on the back foot. They have beaten Germany Italy and Sweden away in friendlies over the last couple of years too.

The current manager, unlike Maradona, is a much quieter man, and less of a hinderance shall we say.

In short I feel it is Argentinas year, and the 9/2 is a good bet, having come in from 6-1 that was available 3 years ago when i first started backing them.

Watch this, and say to me he isnt destined to win one World Cup. This is his best chance https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJdlMBrX1-8

Thoughts welcome.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on May 31, 2014, 10:11:25 PM
don't think the Germany group is horrific. watched ghana tonight and didn't see too much to get me worried about from a germany viewpoint

i think the South American team on their own continent factor is way over-rated these days...travel is easier, sports science, sports psychology much more advanced...all bar 3 of the brazil team play in europe, 2/3 of the argentina squad play in europe

of course argentina is a reasonable bet, but at 9/2 pretty much priced in in a very efficient market

of the big four i argued that germany could outperform their price

http://www.betpal.com/fifa-world-cup-brazil-2014-the-winner-market




Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on May 31, 2014, 10:22:17 PM
Montolivo out of World Cup (fractured tibia against Ireland) reports Sky Italia.

miserable for the man


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Spudy on May 31, 2014, 11:10:57 PM
Think Germany are a bet for 2018 with WH at 10-1 personally, a long way off I know, but Germany at 13/2 isnt for me, not this tournament.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Spudy on May 31, 2014, 11:11:44 PM
Germany got the worst of the draw as in the locations of the group fixtures.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: redarmi on May 31, 2014, 11:13:42 PM
Germany got the worst of the draw as in the locations of the group fixtures.

Italy have that honour for certain.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on May 31, 2014, 11:20:39 PM
Meanwhile, a bear is looking for a toilet in the woods

surely Qatar is dead in the water for 2022?

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/fifa/article1417325.ece


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 01, 2014, 12:25:14 AM
Meanwhile, a bear is looking for a toilet in the woods

surely Qatar is dead in the water for 2022?

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/fifa/article1417325.ece

woah, if you're suggesting that world football is crooked as shit I'm not sure I can believe that ;)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on June 01, 2014, 01:28:28 AM
Montolivo out of World Cup (fractured tibia against Ireland) reports Sky Italia.

miserable for the man

Really thought this was gonna be his world cup. My 100/1 punt on him being player of the tournament lasted long.

Rossi managed to get in 70 mins, if Prandelli thinks he's fit enough he goes. Final 23 gets announced tomorrow after Montolivo's assesment.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Ant040689 on June 01, 2014, 01:36:57 AM
Montolivo out of World Cup (fractured tibia against Ireland) reports Sky Italia.

miserable for the man

Really thought this was gonna be his world cup. My 100/1 punt on him being player of the tournament lasted long.

Rossi managed to get in 70 mins, if Prandelli thinks he's fit enough he goes. Final 23 gets announced tomorrow after Montolivo's assesment.

I found Pearce was throwing himself around unnecessarily aggressively in the latter stages when i saw the last 30 mins. I wonder if that boisterousness was a factor in his challenge here.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on June 01, 2014, 01:40:31 AM
Montolivo out of World Cup (fractured tibia against Ireland) reports Sky Italia.

miserable for the man

Really thought this was gonna be his world cup. My 100/1 punt on him being player of the tournament lasted long.

Rossi managed to get in 70 mins, if Prandelli thinks he's fit enough he goes. Final 23 gets announced tomorrow after Montolivo's assesment.

I found Pearce was throwing himself around unnecessarily aggressively in the latter stages when i saw the last 30 mins. I wonder if that boisterousness was a factor in his challenge here.

It was'nt a 'bad' tackle just a firm one, guess it's one of those things. We're deffo gonna miss him.

Been confirmed that he fractured his tibia. Feel for the boy.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on June 01, 2014, 01:42:16 AM
On a side note Immobile confirmed deal to Dortmund is done.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Ant040689 on June 01, 2014, 01:46:45 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFo6oBjdilk

I think he's going in too hard and he knows he is, very easily avoidable. If i hadn't seen other challenges through the match that were ott, and was just that as isolated then fair enough but think it's poor form tbh.

Holding out it was naivety and over exuberance in the excitement of a chance to impress in the green.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on June 02, 2014, 12:29:54 AM
Like Iniesta most assists @ a juicy 50/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/most-assists


Love this bet: Top scorer after the group stage. I'm gonna absolutely pile into Lionel. 6/1

Couple at fancy prices. Sanchez @80's and Hulk @ 50's

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/top-group-stage-goalscorer


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Waz1892 on June 02, 2014, 07:49:31 AM
Like Iniesta most assists @ a juicy 50/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/most-assists


Love this bet: Top scorer after the group stage. I'm gonna absolutely pile into Lionel. 6/1

Couple at fancy prices. Sanchez @80's and Hulk @ 50's

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/top-group-stage-goalscorer

What would be the rules on the group bet if more than player on same amount of goals?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on June 02, 2014, 09:05:14 AM
I'd assume dead heat, not checked with individual firms tho


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Omm on June 02, 2014, 11:07:47 PM
I haven't been reading the whole of this thread so sorry if this has been posted before but it seems like a good offer from 888

GOALS MEAN MORE! GET A £5 FREE BET EVERY TIME YOUR TEAM SCORES IN BRAZIL!

Just nominate your team and watch the Free Bets roll in!

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This summer in Brazil, we’ll give you a £5 Free Bet EVERY TIME the team of your choice scores in the tournament. It’s simple: nominate the team you reckon will consistently bang them in and watch the Free Bets roll in!

Here’s how it works:
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Bet – Place a pre-match bet of at least £5 at odds of 1/2 (1.5) or more on any market for a match involving your nominated team.
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So if they score three, you get a £15 Free Bet!

And don’t worry: if your team gets knocked out, you’ll automatically be switched to the nation that eliminated your choice or, if you don’t make it past the group stages, your new team will automatically become the winner of the group!

So go on, place your bets on the greatest tournament on earth with 888sport and make goals mean even more!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Waz1892 on June 03, 2014, 06:40:41 PM
Neymar seems in confident mood

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27678434


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: bigMatt on June 03, 2014, 11:29:25 PM
All,
I'm not sure if I can post this here = so apologies if I am breaching etiquette.

I have tickets for the following World Cup games available - if anyone knows anyone who is looking for tickets to these matches please let me know:

 June 15 - Switzerland v Ecuador
 June 19 - Columbia v Ivory Coast
 June 23 - Brazil V Cameroon
 June 26 - Portugal V Ghana
 June 30 - round of 16.

 All games in Brasilia. 2 x tickets in category 1. I now have the physical tickets in the UK. 


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: claypole on June 04, 2014, 12:06:36 AM
On a side note Immobile confirmed deal to Dortmund is done.

immobile is a great name for a striker....


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: arbboy on June 04, 2014, 12:11:19 AM
All,
I'm not sure if I can post this here = so apologies if I am breaching etiquette.

I have tickets for the following World Cup games available - if anyone knows anyone who is looking for tickets to these matches please let me know:

 June 15 - Switzerland v Ecuador
 June 19 - Columbia v Ivory Coast
 June 23 - Brazil V Cameroon
 June 26 - Portugal V Ghana
 June 30 - round of 16.

 All games in Brasilia. 2 x tickets in category 1. I now have the physical tickets in the UK. 


depends if you are charging face value or under or 10x face value


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: scotty2hatty on June 04, 2014, 12:17:40 AM
Tackle by the Irish lad is fair.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: bigMatt on June 04, 2014, 06:59:58 AM
Face value of each ticket


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: superwomble on June 04, 2014, 08:13:30 AM
On a side note Immobile confirmed deal to Dortmund is done.

immobile is a great name for a striker....

His movement isn't very good of course...


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Junior Senior on June 09, 2014, 06:58:36 PM
For the value-seeking ubernit. Wickes are handing out vouchers in store when you spend over £10. Its a free £5 bet on the world cup. Not that i would advocate this but i have since returned the item i bought as it didnt look right but still got the free bet yo.



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TheChipPrince on June 11, 2014, 03:17:53 PM
Chaps.   54 bets + specials acculmulated over the last couple of months.

GL all.


ANTE POST BETS – WORLD CUP 2014

BET 1:
Raheem Sterling top England scorer 33/1 Betfred 27th April


BET 2:
Brazil to score 4+ goals in each group game 67/1 Ladbrokes 1st May


BET 3:
Portugal to win each group game & Ronaldo to score in each one 58/1 Ladbrokes 1st May


BET 4:
Spain to score 3+ goals in each group game 39/1 Ladbrokes 1st May


BET 5:
Edin Dzeko score 4+ goals in the tournament 40/1 SkyBet 1st May


BET 6:
Mario Gotze Top scorer 80/1 SkyBet 1st May


BET 7:
Neymar to score 8+ goals in the tournament 49/1 SkyBet 1st May


BET 8:
Costa/Xavi/Iniesta all to score 2+ goals in the tournament 49/1 SkyBet 1st May


BET 9:
Marco Reus to be top German scorer 11/1 SportingBet 3rd May


BET 10:
Guiseppe Rossi to be top Italian scorer 20/1 SportingBet 3rd May


BET 11:
Chile & Ecuador to win their groups 38/1 Ladbrokes 11th May


BET 12:
All 6 South American teams to qualify 8/1 Stan James 11th May


BET 13:
Group 7 to be the highest scoring group 7/1 Betfred 11th May


BET 14:
England to qualify out the group EVS Ladbrokes 12th May


BET 15:
Rooney to be top scorer 80/1 Ladbrokes 12th May


BET 16:
Switzerland & Russia NOT to qualify out the groups 5/1 BetVictor 12th May


BET 17:
Aron Johannsson to be top USA scorer 25/1 BetVictor 13th May


BET 18:
James Rodriguez to be Player of the Tournament 100/1 BetVictor 13th May


BET 19:
Angel Di Maria to be Player of the Tournament 150/1 BetVictor 13th May


BET 20:
Spain to win the World Cup 10/1 Ladbrokes 14th May


BET 21:
Portugal to win the World Cup 50/1 Ladbrokes 14th May


BET 22:
Alexis Sanchez to be Player of the Tournament 100/1 BetVictor 17th May


BET 23:
Pedro to be top Spain scorer 10/1 Ladbrokes 17th May


BET 24:
Memphis Depay to be top Holland scorer 25/1 Ladbrokes 17th May


BET 25:
Raul Meireles to be top Portugal scorer 100/1 BetVictor 17th May


BET 26:
Dries Mertens to be top Belgium scorer 20/1 BetVictor 17th May


BET 27:
4 or more African teams to qualify out the group stage 69/1 Ladbrokes 20th May


BET 28:
Algeria to score over 2.5 group goals 11/8 BetVictor 22nd May


BET 29:
Algeria to score over 2.5 group goals (11/8)
Ivory Coast to score over 3.5 group goals (11/10) – Double 4/1 BetVictor 22nd May


BET 30:
Algeria to score over 2.5 group goals (11/8)
Ivory Coast to score over 3.5 group goals (11/10)
Cameroon to score over 2.5 group goals (5/4) – Treble 10/1 BetVictor 22nd May


BET 31:
GROUP H Tricast – Belgium/Algeria/South Korea (in that order) 33/1 BetVictor 22nd May


BET 32:
GROUP H Tricast – Algeria/Belgium/South Korea (in that order) 125/1 BetVictor 22nd May


BET 33:
GROUP H – Russia to finish bottom 12/1 BetVictor 22nd May


BET 34:
Algeria to make the quarter finals 40/1 Stan James 28th May


BET 35:
Alexis Sanchez & Edin Dzeko to score 2+ goals each 9/1 BetVictor 28th May


BET 36:
England to win group D 4/1 Ladbrokes 30th May


BET 37:
Carlos Bacca top La Liga goalscorer 50/1 BetVictor 1st June


BET 38:
Chile to be the top scoring side in the World Cup 100/1 SkyBet 2nd June


BET 39:
Messi to be top scorer (Betfred Special) 10/1 2nd June


BET 40:
Eduardo Vargas Top scorer 100/1 SkyBet 2nd June


BET 41:
Marcos Rojo most Argentina bookings 12/1 BetVictor 1st June


BET 42:
Romelu Lukaku top Premier League goalscorer 12/1 Ladbrokes 2nd June


BET 43:
Sergio Ageuro top Argentina goalscorer 4/1 SkyBet 5th  June


BET 44:
Bosnia to score over 4.5 Tournament goals 6/5 SkyBet 5th  June


BET 45:
Bosnia to score between 11-15 Tournament goals 25/1 SkyBet 5th  June


BET 46:
France to reach the semi-finals 5/1 Betfred 5th  June


BET 47:
Argentina to reach the final 3/1 Betfred 6th  June


BET 48:
Vedad Ibisevic Top scorer 150/1 Betfred 7th June


BET 49:
Sergio Ageuro top Premier League goalscorer 6/1 Ladbrokes 7th June


BET 50:
Japan to score over 7.5 Tournament goals 16/1 Ladbrokes 11th  June


BET 51:
Argentina to win/Benzema to top score 175/1 SkyBet 11th  June


BET 52:
Islam Slimani Top scorer 1000/1 BetVictor 11th June


BET 53:
Keisuke Honda Top Milan (Both teams) scorer 14/1 Coral 11th June


BET 54:
Kwadwo Asamoah Top Juventus scorer 20/1 Coral 11th June




£3.75 England to win the WC 66/1 Ladbrokes 2nd February
£40 (Free Bet) Argentina 5/1 BetVictor 4th February
£25 (Free Bet) Colombia 25/1 BetVictor 10th February
£7.50 Spain to win the WC 10/1 Ladbrokes 15th March
£5 Japan/Chile/Bosnia/Portugal all to qualify 15/1 Paddy Power 28th May
£5 Chile to reach the semi-finals 13/1 Paddy Power 29th May


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on June 11, 2014, 03:25:25 PM
thanks for those

very nice portfolio!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TheDazzler on June 11, 2014, 04:18:00 PM
John Oliver talking about the World Cup and FIFA. Pretty funny.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DlJEt2KU33I


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on June 11, 2014, 06:27:28 PM
2 bets I've seen with Laddies. Player goalscoring match bets:

Benzema @ 5/2 v Higuain

Messi @ evens v Neymar.

Draw is a runner in both match ups

The Benzema one is a bonkers price. Will start every game, Higuain not as certain. Benzema a better striker Imo and Ancelotti's. Expect France to go deep.



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on June 11, 2014, 06:41:32 PM
Last one before the start tomorrow!

Altidore top north east scorer @ 7/1

Remy is fav @ 7/4

Remys not a starter Altidore is.

1 goal could win it.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 11, 2014, 07:31:41 PM
Last one before the start tomorrow!

Altidore top north east scorer @ 7/1

Remy is fav @ 7/4

Remys not a starter Altidore is.

1 goal could win it.

Altidore scored twice lately I think....


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on June 11, 2014, 07:34:18 PM
Last one before the start tomorrow!

Altidore top north east scorer @ 7/1

Remy is fav @ 7/4

Remys not a starter Altidore is.

1 goal could win it.

Altidore scored twice lately I think....

Price was 8's when I saw it at work.

Last I looked it's down to 6's.

Only other potential threat Imo is ameobi of the shola variety


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on June 12, 2014, 12:48:50 AM
Nice portfolio there Dwayne, Mine is as follows:



Italy to win world cup   Betfair   28/1

Group F highest scoring group   Betway   19/4

Belgium to be called a dark horse   PP   5/4

Messi top scorer   pp   8/1

Costa Rica lowest scorers   pp   11/2

Croatia, Chile, Switzerland, Bosnia, Japan to qualify (4 fold & 5 fold)   Ladbrokes   Acca

Dzeko top scorer   Stan James   66/1

Kerzakhov top scorer   PP   100/1

Thiago Silva player of tournament   BV   66/1

Hulk top Brazilian scorer   BV   12/1

Iniesta Most Assists   Boylesports   50/1

Hulk Player of the tournament   Bet365   80/1

Argentina world cup winner   Unibet   9/2

Argentina world cup winner   Betbright   9/2

Vidal Top scorer   Betfair   150/1

Okazaki top scorer   Betfair   330/1

Rodriguez top scorer   Betfair   290/1

Shaqiri top scorer   Betfair   800/1

Sterling top England scorer   Unibet   24/1

Vidal Top scorer   Coral/poker encore   125/1

Pedro, Martinez top country scorers   Trixie/ Reus void   Acca

Marchisio top Italian scorer   Boylesports   28/1

Hugo Lloris Golden Glove   PP   18/1

Altidore top NE scorer   Coral     6/1

Benzema more goals than Higuain & Messi more than Neymar   Ladbrokes   5/2 & 1/1

Portugal to win Coral 25/1

Few of these are free bets.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on June 12, 2014, 08:34:47 AM
Portfolio:

TGS EW

Dzeko 100/1
Cavani 40/1
Hazard 80/1

Golden Boot outright on Betfair

Nani 1000/1
Gerrard 700/1
Ibisevic 270/1
Shaqiri 966/1

Player of tournament

Fred 100/1
Muller 40/1
Negredo 100/1
Silva 100/1

Other stuff

Brazil win / Neymar tgs 20/1
Argentina & Brazil to finish on 9 pts 5/1
Honduras & Australia to finish on 0pts 7/1

England / Uruguay final 200/1 :)

England to be eliminated on pens 9/1

I also have a 'retirment acca / perm' that I am still working on, so far looks like this:

Mexico to Qualify
Switzerland to Qualify
Vargas top Chile scorer
Sterling top England scorer
Benzema top France scorer
Robben top Holland scorer
Bosnia to finish 2nd in Group



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on June 12, 2014, 08:43:46 AM
Sighs, Acca looks like a no go. It wont even let me bet Sterling top england, Benzema top France, Robben top Holand and Vargas top Chile.. can't see how they are related, surely I should be able to make these into an acca?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Longy on June 12, 2014, 10:14:09 AM
Screw all this betting chat. Has anyone got an awesome wall chart, that I maybe I can print off the internet.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Graham C on June 12, 2014, 10:52:18 AM
Screw all this betting chat. Has anyone got an awesome wall chart, that I maybe I can print off the internet.

Was looking a fair bit for one myself yesterday.  Quite like the cbeebies one

http://www.bbc.co.uk/cbbc/posters/world-cup-2014-wall-chart


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Graham C on June 12, 2014, 12:08:49 PM
PP also have a good one, think I'll use this, I've been put off by the cartoon characters on the CBeebies one!

http://blog.paddypower.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Wallchart-main.jpg


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Longy on June 12, 2014, 12:36:56 PM
PP also have a good one, think I'll use this, I've been put off by the cartoon characters on the CBeebies one!

http://blog.paddypower.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Wallchart-main.jpg

Thanks think I will opt for this one!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Jamier-Host on June 12, 2014, 04:04:25 PM
Nitty smidge of value on Brazil to win all their group games. Main comparison market is the "total points" one with 11/10 top price, but Sportingbet have "3 wins" at 23/20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/brazil/win-all-group-games (http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/brazil/win-all-group-games)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Graham C on June 12, 2014, 05:55:11 PM
Three and a half hours to go!!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 12, 2014, 06:49:48 PM
If England win...

http://imgur.com/a/Eh9y0


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: RickBFA on June 12, 2014, 10:55:25 PM
Never a foul for the penalty.

Don't you get sick of the constant cheating.

Earlier Marcelo was holding his face like someone had hit him, feigning injury.

Players going down so easily and rolling around like they've been shot then sprinting around like gazelles a minute later.

Modern day football is a total joke and the authorities couldn't give a toss.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: George2Loose on June 12, 2014, 11:26:04 PM
Spain holland game- Dutch 4/1. Draw 10/3 or just leave a pretty tough game to predict alone?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on June 12, 2014, 11:27:28 PM
Spain holland game- Dutch 4/1. Draw 10/3 or just leave a pretty tough game to predict alone?

draw looks a fantastic price

ultimate "mustn't lose" game with chile in the group


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: horseplayer on June 12, 2014, 11:28:52 PM
Cant have the Dutch with toffee

To many players who have never played higher domestically than the erevisde.

A defence held together by Ron Vlaar a player i really admire but who played with injury a lot and turns slower than me



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: McGlashan on June 13, 2014, 12:09:06 AM
Van Gall has confirmed his starting 11 vs Spain
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bp9okkrIAAA78Ym.jpg)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: rfgqqabc on June 13, 2014, 12:11:21 AM
Never a foul for the penalty.

Don't you get sick of the constant cheating.

Earlier Marcelo was holding his face like someone had hit him, feigning injury.

Players going down so easily and rolling around like they've been shot then sprinting around like gazelles a minute later.

Modern day football is a total joke and the authorities couldn't give a toss.

Wouldn't you if you were in an England shirt?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Cf on June 13, 2014, 10:07:01 AM
It was hardly a good advertisement for football was it?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: jakally on June 13, 2014, 10:56:35 AM
Spain holland game- Dutch 4/1. Draw 10/3 or just leave a pretty tough game to predict alone?

Where can you get 10/3 on the draw? A must-bet if you can get on at that.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: RickBFA on June 13, 2014, 12:09:19 PM
Never a foul for the penalty.

Don't you get sick of the constant cheating.

Earlier Marcelo was holding his face like someone had hit him, feigning injury.

Players going down so easily and rolling around like they've been shot then sprinting around like gazelles a minute later.

Modern day football is a total joke and the authorities couldn't give a toss.

Wouldn't you if you were in an England shirt?

No.

This is the problem - this behaviour is accepted by the authorities, coaches and fans as if its OK.

What other sport constantly accepts cheating as just part of the game?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: George2Loose on June 13, 2014, 12:12:08 PM
Spain holland game- Dutch 4/1. Draw 10/3 or just leave a pretty tough game to predict alone?

Where can you get 10/3 on the draw? A must-bet if you can get on at that.

Sky bet altho 12/5 now


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: jakally on June 13, 2014, 01:31:35 PM
Spain holland game- Dutch 4/1. Draw 10/3 or just leave a pretty tough game to predict alone?

Where can you get 10/3 on the draw? A must-bet if you can get on at that.

Sky bet altho 12/5 now

I bet this at 12/5 yesterday, which is why I was excited at 10/3.
Roughly a third of first round group matches end in draws. This includes some games where teams are not closely matched (i.e. will end in a draw <1/3 of the time), therefore when two teams are reasonably closely matched, a draw should be 2/1 or lower.

The only negative to this is sample size isn't great - about 75 games.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: malt vinegar on June 13, 2014, 06:09:57 PM

linos avin a bit of trouble with off side in this mexico game


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mondatoo on June 13, 2014, 10:00:37 PM
Everyone just speechless with the Spain v Holland game ?

Great game.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on June 13, 2014, 10:02:51 PM
Anyone have the scorecast? Epic world Cup already....


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Omm on June 13, 2014, 10:05:24 PM
Anyone have the scorecast? Epic world Cup already....

Apparently £7 matched at 999-1 on bf for 5-1


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: rfgqqabc on June 13, 2014, 10:07:12 PM
Dutch gone from 46s yesterday to 14.5 today. Seems like a decent overreaction although I thought 45s was very big.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on June 13, 2014, 10:10:52 PM
Paddy power are saying 10 punters are sweating 5-1 at 500-1

who knows, but it could be 12-5! 


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Omm on June 13, 2014, 10:12:20 PM
Great football match to watch, if England's game is half as entertaining I'll be happy.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mondatoo on June 13, 2014, 10:14:11 PM
Haven't seen a good defensive performance yet, stays like this it'll be very entertaining.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: jakally on June 13, 2014, 10:15:12 PM
Great football match to watch, if England's game is half as entertaining I'll be happy.

BBC dropped very fortunate with their first game, but their presentation and commentary team is so much better than ITV it's almost embarrassing.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on June 13, 2014, 10:16:01 PM
expected henry to be brilliant, but rio ferdinand is a major pleasant surprise. knows his stuff


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mondatoo on June 13, 2014, 10:24:45 PM
Great football match to watch, if England's game is half as entertaining I'll be happy.

BBC dropped very fortunate with their first game, but their presentation and commentary team is so much better than ITV it's almost embarrassing.

I was going to post the exact same thing word for word.

In the World Cup do they not do the same as Premier League with retrospective punishment ? Costa headbutt is what I'm referring to.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Waz1892 on June 13, 2014, 10:27:33 PM
Great football match to watch, if England's game is half as entertaining I'll be happy.

BBC dropped very fortunate with their first game, but their presentation and commentary team is so much better than ITV it's almost embarrassing.

I was going to post the exact same thing word for word.

In the World Cup do they not do the same as Premier League with retrospective punishment ? Costa headbutt is what I'm referring to.

Assume not as Neymar would be suspended too


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mondatoo on June 13, 2014, 10:28:48 PM
Great football match to watch, if England's game is half as entertaining I'll be happy.

BBC dropped very fortunate with their first game, but their presentation and commentary team is so much better than ITV it's almost embarrassing.

I was going to post the exact same thing word for word.

In the World Cup do they not do the same as Premier League with retrospective punishment ? Costa headbutt is what I'm referring to.

Assume not as Neymar would be suspended too

Ref booked him though so he seen it, in Prem they couldn't do any punishment there.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Waz1892 on June 13, 2014, 10:30:21 PM
Great football match to watch, if England's game is half as entertaining I'll be happy.

BBC dropped very fortunate with their first game, but their presentation and commentary team is so much better than ITV it's almost embarrassing.

I was going to post the exact same thing word for word.

In the World Cup do they not do the same as Premier League with retrospective punishment ? Costa headbutt is what I'm referring to.

Assume not as Neymar would be suspended too

Ref booked him though so he seen it, in Prem they couldn't do any punishment there.

Good point, forgot he got booked


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 14, 2014, 12:36:28 PM
Don't think retrospective action exists, FIFA like to think that no problems exist.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: lucky_scrote on June 14, 2014, 01:42:01 PM
Such an epic game, this is what the world cup is all about.

I don't think them dropping from 40's to 14's is an over-reaction. They've just shown they are somewhat capable.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 14, 2014, 01:52:55 PM
Such an epic game, this is what the world cup is all about.

I don't think them dropping from 40's to 14's is an over-reaction. They've just shown they are somewhat capable.

think as well that part of the reason they were priced at 45s is they have (probably next to england/ita/uru) the 'group of death' to navigate first and that in most people's expectations they run into Brazil in round 2 if they did qualify,

it would take a full on blow up that only the dutch are really capable of to not qualify now and they have a great shot at winning the group as well ofc which avoids Brazil in 99% of cases.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: rfgqqabc on June 15, 2014, 02:42:53 AM
Such an epic game, this is what the world cup is all about.

I don't think them dropping from 40's to 14's is an over-reaction. They've just shown they are somewhat capable.

think as well that part of the reason they were priced at 45s is they have (probably next to england/ita/uru) the 'group of death' to navigate first and that in most people's expectations they run into Brazil in round 2 if they did qualify,

it would take a full on blow up that only the dutch are really capable of to not qualify now and they have a great shot at winning the group as well ofc which avoids Brazil in 99% of cases.

They are still likely to be decent priced underdogs vs whoever they face in the final/semis. Just seemed a bit much from one result.

Japan really impressive in the first twenty mins, soaked some pressure up nicely. Ivory Coasts keeper looks beyond a joke, not caught any of the shots that have been straight at him yet! When was the last time a ref booked a player for a foul having played advantage? Or is this something that just happens on fifa?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: rfgqqabc on June 15, 2014, 12:28:44 PM
Such an epic game, this is what the world cup is all about.

I don't think them dropping from 40's to 14's is an over-reaction. They've just shown they are somewhat capable.

think as well that part of the reason they were priced at 45s is they have (probably next to england/ita/uru) the 'group of death' to navigate first and that in most people's expectations they run into Brazil in round 2 if they did qualify,

it would take a full on blow up that only the dutch are really capable of to not qualify now and they have a great shot at winning the group as well ofc which avoids Brazil in 99% of cases.

They are still likely to be decent priced underdogs vs whoever they face in the final/semis. Just seemed a bit much from one result.

Japan really impressive in the first twenty mins, soaked some pressure up nicely. Ivory Coasts keeper looks beyond a joke, not caught any of the shots that have been straight at him yet! When was the last time a ref booked a player for a foul having played advantage? Or is this something that just happens on fifa?

Drogba came on and was an absolute monster, completely ruined my dreams of glory but got the overs and BTTS up. Mixed bag of onions.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on June 15, 2014, 01:54:59 PM
Lichsteiner absolute machine from rb, bombs forward for fun.

20/1 mom in Switzerland match tonight with Laddies.



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: superwomble on June 15, 2014, 07:50:18 PM
Lichsteiner absolute machine from rb, bombs forward for fun.

20/1 mom in Switzerland match tonight with Laddies.



Apolgies for sort of after-timing but only just seen this. Copy of a post I made in TFT:

There's some long Fifa Man of The Match Award prices on players not expected to start in the England vs Italy game. Marco Veratti is expected to start and possibly in a more advanced CM role than the defensive role he occupies for PSG.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/england-v-italy/fifa-man-of-the-match (http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/england-v-italy/fifa-man-of-the-match)

There's some 40-1 if we can get a few quid on with Uneed to bet, we can pass on the general prices of 20's.



From what I've been reading from regular MOTM backers on Twitter the general consensus seems to be to keep away from it in the WC, or at least play it differently from normal. The awards are given by a public vote, a vote which is open all match I believe, and it tends to be a popularity contest rather than a true MOTM award as given by a pundit in usual games.

Example of this: in the Switzerland game Shaqiri got MOTM.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: McGlashan on June 15, 2014, 09:26:24 PM
There won't be too many long priced MOTM winners here. You want to be writing up a short list of the fans favourites/ players from major clubs.

I wouldn't want to be laying evens on Messi in the group stages.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Tonji on June 15, 2014, 09:29:13 PM
Technology Farce


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: rfgqqabc on June 15, 2014, 09:34:24 PM
How did that take so long? First time it was close system said no, second incident it said yes and we have to waste 5 mins of everyones life looking into this further?

And there was definitely one replay on our screens.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 15, 2014, 09:34:57 PM
How did that take so long? First time it was close system said no, second incident it said yes and we have to waste 5 mins of everyones life looking into this further?

Yeah don't get that mind.

So very easy lol.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Woodsey on June 15, 2014, 09:35:36 PM
Some funny stuff popping up on FB this last day or two  ;D


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Waz1892 on June 15, 2014, 09:37:16 PM
Technology Farce

Eh?  Perfect. Saved all the was it wasnt it fuss.

Hits post. Tech confirms that stage no goal; Goalie grabs it. Tech showed it as a goal. Likely wouldnt have been given without it

As for the commentry "what of brazil arg final". Superb if so, it worked and saves all the arguements for years ahead


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Woodsey on June 15, 2014, 09:38:18 PM
Standard  ;D


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: horseplayer on June 15, 2014, 09:49:56 PM
No more subs please


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Waz1892 on June 15, 2014, 09:58:52 PM
So far every game bar 1 has been 2.5+


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: George2Loose on June 15, 2014, 10:23:01 PM
So far every game bar 1 has been 2.5+

A friend of mine only bets on +2.5 and +3.5 main reason being his bet is usually live until the end and he doesn't care who scores. Just enjoys the sweat and wants to see loads of goals


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Waz1892 on June 15, 2014, 10:31:37 PM
So far every game bar 1 has been 2.5+

A friend of mine only bets on +2.5 and +3.5 main reason being his bet is usually live until the end and he doesn't care who scores. Just enjoys the sweat and wants to see loads of goals

Your friend enjoying the World Cup a lot then! Liking the reasoning too.  Wish him continued success. We all win then.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Ironside on June 19, 2014, 07:39:53 AM
England's make or break game with Uruguay tonight

Well it's not really England can lose tonight by a single goal and if Italy beat Costa Rica England would still be very likely to qualify by beating Costa Rica and Italy beating a very poor Uruguay

As with all these major events since 1996 England like to do things the hard way so would be interested in odds on England failing to win tonight but going through


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: AdamM on June 19, 2014, 09:33:29 AM
wouldnt want to rely on an already qualified Italy beating a desperate Uruguay in the last game.
Must win tonight.



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: George2Loose on June 19, 2014, 11:30:53 AM
I'm on +2.5 England gonna win 3-1 I reckon- c'mon England!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Ironside on June 19, 2014, 12:35:58 PM
wouldnt want to rely on an already qualified Italy beating a desperate Uruguay in the last game.
Must win tonight.


they will want to win group for better draw so won't want to take foot of gas against urugauy  wouldn't want to rely on it but it's an option if things go wrong tonight


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Tal on June 19, 2014, 06:06:02 PM
Suarez starts.

Meanwhile, this from Kick TV:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BqgbHNsCQAE7XGf.jpg)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Ironside on June 19, 2014, 08:19:22 PM
sorry but that singing of the national anthem was pathetic by the england players i was singing it with more passion and i am a neutral


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: MintTrav on June 19, 2014, 08:37:51 PM
England would still be very likely to qualify by beating Costa Rica and Italy beating a very poor Uruguay

Not so sure about that. It was no surprise that Costa Rica beat Uruguay. England's best chance is probably tonight.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Tal on June 19, 2014, 09:14:17 PM
England have never won a world cup match when trailing at half time (4 losses, two draws)

Really can't stress how good the pundit combination of Lalas and Martinez is. Slick, professional and knowledgeable.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: superwomble on June 19, 2014, 09:15:11 PM
wouldnt want to rely on an already qualified Italy beating a desperate Uruguay in the last game.
Must win tonight.


they will want to win group for better draw so won't want to take foot of gas against urugauy  wouldn't want to rely on it but it's an option if things go wrong tonight

More to the point, if Costa beat us and Uruguay beat Italy they could be out.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 19, 2014, 09:15:25 PM
Not sure how Godin still on pitch. Ref helping them a lot.

England need to stop making stupid fucking mistakes and we'll be ok.

Would take Rooney off though. Getting battered and missed a sitter.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: superwomble on June 19, 2014, 09:16:11 PM
England have never won a world cup match when trailing at half time (4 losses, two draws)

Really can't stress how good the pundit combination of Lalas and Martinez is. Slick, professional and knowledgeable.

Also not won a game when the opposition have scored since Cameroon in 1990.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: horseplayer on June 19, 2014, 09:18:45 PM
cant control a game against anyone

Their centre two are not even good players, get a grip of the game

I bash Gerard enough on here but christ man put in a tackle or show some drive


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: nirvana on June 19, 2014, 09:25:00 PM
cant control a game against anyone

Their centre two are not even good players, get a grip of the game

I bash Gerard enough on here but christ man put in a tackle or show some drive

Think Gerard played 2 good (easy tbf) passes in the first 10 and that was about it.

Ronney cant score from 5 "

So depressing

Hope they play great and shove it in my eye second half


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Kmac84 on June 19, 2014, 09:30:31 PM
England really are woeful.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: arbboy on June 19, 2014, 09:44:15 PM
urug one chance one clinical finish.  England 4 or 5 huge chances and a bucket load of the usual excuses.  We are just not good enough.  It's comical listening to the same BS every 4 years.  The players are just not hungry enough.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: RickBFA on June 19, 2014, 09:48:49 PM
urug one chance one clinical finish.  England 4 or 5 huge chances and a bucket load of the usual excuses.  We are just not good enough.  It's comical listening to the same BS every 4 years.  The players are just not hungry enough.

Very true. Men against boys tonight.

Our centre halves are awful.

Suarez would have buried that Rooney chance.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Ironside on June 19, 2014, 09:54:53 PM
rooney deserved that IMHO



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: arbboy on June 19, 2014, 09:56:58 PM
confirmation of my status as being able to moan anything in to get my viewpoint to look stupid!!!  I am a master at it!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: arbboy on June 19, 2014, 10:01:44 PM
urug two chances two redic clinical world class finishes.  Bring back Lineker England's greatest finisher ever.  England 4 or 5 huge chances and a bucket load of the usual excuses.  We are just not good enough.  It's comical listening to the same BS every 4 years.  The players are just not hungry enough.

FMP


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: RED-DOG on June 19, 2014, 10:02:47 PM
Sigh... We always do just enough to come second.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: arbboy on June 19, 2014, 10:07:06 PM
Sigh... We always do just enough to come second.

2nd from bottom in our group?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: RED-DOG on June 19, 2014, 10:12:45 PM
Sigh... We always do just enough to come second.

2nd from bottom in our group?

No. Second to the other team.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: arbboy on June 19, 2014, 10:16:14 PM
Sigh... We always do just enough to come second.

2nd from bottom in our group?

No. Second to the other team.

I thought the draw comes 2nd in a match and england come third!!!!!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Ironside on June 19, 2014, 10:20:57 PM
Guess scotland not qualifying didn ruin this guys world cup


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: easypickings on June 19, 2014, 11:01:53 PM
It sounds silly, but I honestly think it's really important for England not to take a commanding lead (2- or 3-0) against Costa Rica, if ltaly are not beating Uruguay. We are then at the mercy of their decision to play out a draw, and 100% knock us out.

If Italy are prepared to conspire against us (Uruguay, being in the more fragile position, far more likely are), then we are completely relaint on the possible threat of Costa Rica getting points to keep things complicated for Uruguay. If we eliminate any threat of Costa Rica getting points, I think it is a genuine danger that Italy and Uruguay will play out a draw, and leave us drawing dead.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Ironside on June 19, 2014, 11:17:38 PM
It sounds silly, but I honestly think it's really important for England not to take a commanding lead (2- or 3-0) against Costa Rica, if ltaly are not beating Uruguay. We are then at the mercy of their decision to play out a draw, and 100% knock us out.

If Italy are prepared to conspire against us (Uruguay, being in the more fragile position, far more likely are), then we are completely relaint on the possible threat of Costa Rica getting points to keep things complicated for Uruguay. If we eliminate any threat of Costa Rica getting points, I think it is a genuine danger that Italy and Uruguay will play out a draw, and leave us drawing dead.

ideally england want italy to score early then go about winning themselves


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 19, 2014, 11:19:02 PM
Best price England to qualify 7/1.

What do we think the true price is? Think close to 20/1? 40/1?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on June 19, 2014, 11:22:06 PM
Best price England to qualify 7/1.

What do we think the true price is? Think close to 20/1? 40/1?

higher than that?

italy beat costa rica, lets assume

italy 6, uru 3 costa rica 3 eng o

if we are beating costa rica last game, urug and italy stitch us up? draw, italy win group, urug through

only hope we have is beating costa rica late and its far too cute to possibly see it happening


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 19, 2014, 11:25:43 PM
Best price England to qualify 7/1.

What do we think the true price is? Think close to 20/1? 40/1?

higher than that?

italy beat costa rica, lets assume

italy 6, uru 3 costa rica 3 eng o

if we are beating costa rica last game, urug and italy stitch us up? draw, italy win group, urug through

only hope we have is beating costa rica late and its far too cute to possibly see it happening

I imagined you could get a treble with padraig (you can't) on ita, ita, eng -1 which would be enough. That came to around 11.4


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: DungBeetle on June 20, 2014, 09:38:28 AM
Random point - but does anyone else find the tattoos of all the England players really irritating?  Especially on that ITV intro when the all fold their arms.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Waz1892 on June 20, 2014, 10:01:54 AM
Random point - but does anyone else find the tattoos of all the England players really irritating?  Especially on that ITV intro when the all fold their arms.

I find the people wearing them more irratating at present!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: RED-DOG on June 20, 2014, 10:06:32 AM
Never mind. Only another 4 years to go...


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on June 20, 2014, 10:49:02 AM
giles smith in the times :0-))

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BqkCBt7CUAAp-bP.jpg)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Graham C on June 20, 2014, 10:54:14 AM
Random point - but does anyone else find the tattoos of all the England players really irritating?  Especially on that ITV intro when the all fold their arms.

I was wondering yesterday if there are any players that don't have tattoo's ? 


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mondatoo on June 20, 2014, 11:26:06 AM
The young players are scarred now so that's there excuse locked up for the next 10 years. What a joke!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: The Baron on June 20, 2014, 07:39:04 PM
RH the luckiest manager alive right now. Unreal he's kept his job.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on June 20, 2014, 07:45:18 PM
RH the luckiest manager alive right now. Unreal he's kept his job.

gets cut a lot of slack because he's a nice guy and "the right sort of guy" for the FA

Tactically though, i think he's been massively outdone by both Prandelli and Tabarez

this might be a bit of aftertiming i suppose, on my behalf

but gerrard and henderson play in a 3 for liverpool, and get over-run in a 2 for england, both games

never found rooney's right position

not a lot he can do about the back four, coaching can't prevent the sort of mistakes baines, jagielka and johnson delivered. good premiership players but a way off the class required for a world cup against good strikers


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Tal on June 20, 2014, 07:53:36 PM
Gerrard and Henderson look like they've played 50 games this season. We missed the driving forward from midfield of a Lampard in his prime and were embarrassingly impotent in the middle of the park. That partnership can't happen again. Two slow centre halves who can't play the ball don't work when the midfield isn't dropping back to take the five yard passes and you don't have a number nine to lump it up to.

The intent was there to be more assertive, but it felt like Hodgson picked his best eleven players and then tried to find a system to put them in. That's not how you win a World Cup.

There will be changes for September and beyond. We have two years to build a Euro Champs team.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: The Baron on June 20, 2014, 07:54:19 PM
Pretty much all of that Rich.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on June 20, 2014, 07:56:36 PM
How he has not only kept his job but been assured his position until 2016 is beyond me. Must have some dirt on someone.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on June 20, 2014, 08:01:05 PM
don't get me wrong, he hasn't got world class players, but he didn't utilise what he had correctly

apart from luke shaw, where the defenders are for 2016-18 is the major issue?

stones, flanagan, caulker maybe?

surely we can't go with jagielka, geln johnson again?

conceding two a game (and three of four in this world cup saw us defensively at fault) in a world cup is not going to take you anywhere


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: pleno1 on June 20, 2014, 08:11:26 PM
stones jones shaw all could be v good in 4 years


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: arbboy on June 20, 2014, 08:26:09 PM
stones jones shaw all could be v good in 4 years

Been hearing this for 28 years '(select three random england footballers under the age of 25) could all be very good in 4 years time' its comical how it keep getting thrown around.  'golden generation' another comical phrase used to describe future england teams for the last 28 years none of which has ever been close to being factual.

Our game has never had more money in it yet we are going further and further away from even competing at WC's to the point where it's embarrassing.  The two key things we lack for me at 'street smarts' and passion/drive/hunger.  No one in this england squad looks like they care less about the WC.  Players for teams like Costa Rica are not financially secure for life and are playing like their life depends on it and their next contract depends on it.  Everyone in the England team never has to work again and you can see it massively in our performances at times.  I think we are naturally a lazy nation who likes to wallow in the past and doesn't move with the times.  Suar is a unique individual that he come from such averse poverty in his childhood money just doesn't seem to have changed his hunger for the game/success.  He plays every game like he needs to win to eat that night or his kids will go hungry.

BTW this doesn't just apply to football i think we have massively under achieved as a country in numerous sports in my lifetime for the above reasons.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: arbboy on June 20, 2014, 09:37:57 PM
1994 World cup

No appearance

1998 World cup

England    2–0    Tunisia   

Romania    2–1    England   

Colombia    0–2    England   

England 2 Argies 2

2002 World cup


England    1–1    Sweden   Saitama Stadium, Saitama

Argentina    0–1    England   Sapporo Dome, Sapporo

Nigeria    0–0    England

England 3 Denmark 0

England 1 Brazil 2

2006 World cup

England    1–0    Paraguay   Commerzbank-Arena, Frankfurt

England    2–0    Trinidad and Tobago   EasyCredit-Stadion, Nuremberg

Sweden    2–2    England

England 1 Ecuador 0

England 0 Portugal 0


2010 World cup

England    1–1    United States   Royal Bafokeng Stadium, Rustenburg

England    0–0    Algeria   Cape Town Stadium, Cape Town

Slovenia    0–1    England

 Germany    4 England    1

2014 World cup

England 1 Italy 2

Urug 2 England 1

If you actually look at our world cup performance over a reasonable sample size there are no excuses.  We have never given a team a hiding at a WC finals game in the last 24 years.  Given the average ranking of the teams we have played in that period if you actually think we have a chance of even reaching the semi's of a WC final at least two of those teams should have received a 4 or 5 goal beating like numerous other teams 'of equal ability' to england in the betting seem to do routinely.  Some of the results in these group matches are shocking.  I don't know the average fifa ranking of the group stage opponents but just looking at them at a glance our performace is just consistently poor.  

This is through the 'golden era of the man u home grown treble winning side, Gerrard, Lampard, Ashley Cole, Rooney, Rio/Terry centre half partnership etc etc'.  Are we really in the next 10 years going to have a bigger talent pool than we have had in the last 16/20 years?  If not then group round exits at WC finals should be considered normal and not a surprise in the slightest.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: horseplayer on June 20, 2014, 09:40:40 PM
said it before but the four or even two years argument just wont work out... Different players will be involved e.t.c

Hodgson is a good coach but not an intuitive one, this group perhaps needs someone with more ideas and attacking flair to thrive.



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: buzzharvey22 on June 20, 2014, 11:13:10 PM
said it before but the four or even two years argument just wont work out... Different players will be involved e.t.c

Hodgson is a good coach but not an intuitive one, this group perhaps needs someone with more ideas and attacking flair to thrive.



not even sure if he is a good coach to be honest. all the reports from the players say that hes a "good man manager". Thats all very well and good, have a team that gets on and is happy to play for the boss, but if the boss cant give the team any strategy or direction then whats the point.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: kinboshi on June 20, 2014, 11:25:56 PM
Hodge-ball is awful. He'd be better off saying to the players that they're all half-decent, so get out there and enjoy yourselves. Better than putting round pegs in square holes.



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Junior Senior on June 20, 2014, 11:58:04 PM
does anyone think a time will come soon when a nation doesn't bother entering a team in a major champs? it seems players care less and less the more time goes on and clubs who pay wages would probably rather that national team football didnt exist. 

maybe international football should be something players do when their career is over. maybe make it an over 35's thing. reckon that would be more interesting.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Omm on June 21, 2014, 12:07:11 AM
Did anyone see that free kick? A lot of power.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: MintTrav on June 21, 2014, 12:27:15 AM
It's not the manager. His extraordinary record proves that. It's the players.

England has had three of the best managers in the world in recent years but, despite their skills, none of them has been able to really make it work in international championships for one simple reason - the players they have been given just haven't been as good as the players from several other countries.

Unless they can attract someone like Scolari or Hiddink, England's best option is to stick with Hodgson.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Woodsey on June 21, 2014, 12:29:52 AM
does anyone think a time will come soon when a nation doesn't bother entering a team in a major champs? it seems players care less and less the more time goes on and clubs who pay wages would probably rather that national team football didnt exist. 

maybe international football should be something players do when their career is over. maybe make it an over 35's thing. reckon that would be more interesting.

No, I don't really subscribe to the 'they don't care BS', teams/players fail mostly because they just aren't good enough, it just a lazy accusation for the most part. Their reaction of winning and how gutted players are when they are out tells you enough.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Woodsey on June 21, 2014, 12:31:35 AM
It's not the manager. His extraordinary record proves that. It's the players.

England has had three of the best managers in the world in recent years but, despite their skills, none of them has been able to really make it work in international championships for one simple reason - the players they have been given just haven't been as good as the players from several other countries.

Unless they can attract someone like Scolari or Hiddink, England's best option is to stick with Hodgson.

This. We always have this silly knee jerk reaction, the players just aren't good enough end of.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TheDazzler on June 21, 2014, 12:42:16 AM
I agree the players aren't good enough.
The Premier League is to blame imo. I think the ratio is 30% English players to 70% foreign and falling.
The Irish team has similarly suffered as the Premier league has grown. We used to have Pool players, Man United players, Chelsea players etc. Now we have lower Prem players and Championship players. 
Soon England won't be qualifying for tournaments at all.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 21, 2014, 12:44:26 AM
We have an OK side, choke against big teams who will exploit any mistake.

We went out of World Cup because we a) can't defend for 90 mins consistently and b) can't take chances or even create enough when teams get 11 behind the ball.

We went out because we were so tactically naive and don't have enough quality. You can blame many things for the lack of quality, but the tactical naivety lies firmly with Roy.

We didn't lose to Italy because we were the worse side, we lost to Italy because they game managed us to bits, like Italian teams have being doing really well for years, and somehow Roy didn't see it coming. Ridiculous.

Unless there are huge changes made to the structure of the game in England we will continue to qualify easily and then get nowhere. Won't be different in four years.

Players like, e.g. Shaw. Great player/potential but won't play against Europe's best with Soton and won't get the game time with a 'big club' that he needs in these formative years, so it's game over, he'll never be the best or top 5 LB in the world because of this.

When was the last time you could genuinely say 'we have the best X in the world'? Ashley Cole, maybe?

Go through the Italian, German, Spanish, whoever teams and you can make arguments for so many of them being best/top 3 in their position.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: david3103 on June 21, 2014, 07:47:47 AM
The malaise in English football is the number of foreign players strangling the life out of the England team's supply line.

What chance would the 'Class of 92' have of getting a run of games in 2014? With the possible exception of Southampton, and Liverpool under Rodgers, where is the English talent being developed for whoever it is that the Hodgson Out brigade think would do better under Mourinho or whoever.

Let's work out a way of ruling that no squad should have more than 50% of players not eligible for the national side and the 11 on the pitch should reflect that with 6 starting and substitutions managed so there are never less than 5.

Let's not ever again put ourselves in a situation where I can find myself thinking that we needed John Terry for one last hoorah.




Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: stribling on June 21, 2014, 08:21:22 AM
Why can't our young players learn there trade abroad like so many other nationalities do?

I don't think changing the premier league is the answer.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on June 21, 2014, 08:27:31 AM
Why can't our young players learn there trade abroad like so many other nationalities do?

I don't think changing the premier league is the answer.

because young british players are paid so much more than young players in many other countries,and the transfer fees to get them would be prohibitive. foriegn feeder clubs and loans are an option, like united did with antwerp for example, but they are not easy to arrange.

it is also the case in many instances that their technical skills do not match their european counterparts, so why would a european team want to buy them?

we have a situation where the premier league is clogged up with overseas imports, a few world class but the majority not and the major clubs are hoarding youth talent and generally not playing it.

the cost of buying from abroad is much lower, and buying young english talent from the lower leagues attracts a premium

the premier league and the clubs are far too powerful and the FA structured in such an old fashioned way that the England national team is always going to be the poor relation in terms of performance



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: horseplayer on June 21, 2014, 09:36:44 AM
I agree the players aren't good enough.
The Premier League is to blame imo. I think the ratio is 30% English players to 70% foreign and falling.
The Irish team has similarly suffered as the Premier league has grown. We used to have Pool players, Man United players, Chelsea players etc. Now we have lower Prem players and Championship players. 
Soon England won't be qualifying for tournaments at all.

This

great post the irish point is a great one the player pool is diminishing every year, when the pool diminishes so does the quality.



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: kinboshi on June 21, 2014, 10:06:22 AM
It's not the manager. His extraordinary record proves that. It's the players.

England has had three of the best managers in the world in recent years but, despite their skills, none of them has been able to really make it work in international championships for one simple reason - the players they have been given just haven't been as good as the players from several other countries.

Unless they can attract someone like Scolari or Hiddink, England's best option is to stick with Hodgson.

Please tell me this is a sarcastic post.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: kinboshi on June 21, 2014, 10:10:23 AM
Hodgson hasn't won anything outside the Scandinavian leagues. Hardly an extraordinary record!

http://tomkinstimes.com/2010/11/roys-hodgsons-managerial-record/

It's not just the results, it's his approach and his strategy. Awful to watch and aims at mediocrity.

He seems to be suggesting we were just unlucky? http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27951796


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: horseplayer on June 21, 2014, 10:16:25 AM
shud have chosen 'arry


:)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: kinboshi on June 21, 2014, 10:24:17 AM
shud have chosen 'arry


:)


Again, another extraordinary record. Why not go the whole distance and get Moyes in?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: horseplayer on June 21, 2014, 10:25:59 AM
Ok so if not Hodgson who?

I cant see a lot of options certainly cant see any young english managers who would want nor any top class foreign ones who would either.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: kinboshi on June 21, 2014, 10:28:55 AM
For a start, they don't have to be English.

How much fun would it be to have Alex Ferguson in charge for a tournament?  :)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: horseplayer on June 21, 2014, 10:33:41 AM
I have a flyer for next manager if Roy was to leave (doubtful)

Not even quoted at present :)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: horseplayer on June 21, 2014, 10:36:23 AM
Cahill did one superb piece of play in the Uruguay game.

He made a good tackle and rather than punt it aimlessly ala Jags or pass it to Henderson or Gerrard for them to dwell on he took the ball out of defence and fed an excellent pass which led to a great chance.

He does this regularly for Chelsea, i dont believe for a second he had been told not to bring the ball out (on occasion) i can only assume the reason he resisted doing it more was the worry about making an error which led to England going out.

Which is a bit ironic after what happened later.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: arbboy on June 21, 2014, 10:36:40 AM
There is no manager in the world who is skilled enough to make disinterested players want to do something they don't really want to put 110% into (which is required to be successful) do.  Players like Crouch, Carroll and Carrick hardly look glum about missing out on the WC this summer as they are pap'd around the world in exotic locations with huge smiles on their faces as they relax in the glamour capitals of the world with their WAG's.  If you could get them to secretly admit the truth i am sure all 3 would be over the moon they were not selected so they can rest all summer and extend their club playing careers by an additional year or two.  In turn increasing the thing which really motivates them in the modern game, $$$$.  The concept of 'retiring' from international football is another very modern idea which didn't exist a generation ago yet now is just an excuse to focus on making money ahead of the desire/pride of representing your country.

The argument that the EPL costs England a chance of winning the world cup is also poppycock.  It gets rolled out every 4 years but the bottom line is there are only 22 England players needed for the squad.  All 22 get the opportunity to play week in week out against the greatest players in the world in the EPL and are used to playing against the best talent in the world much more so than more successful England sides in the past (1986/90).  The best English players if talented enough to make the national side will always rise to the top.  If they don't their talent is never going to be enough to make it at a world class international level anyway.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Ironside on June 21, 2014, 10:45:18 AM
Why can't our young players learn there trade abroad like so many other nationalities do?

I don't think changing the premier league is the answer.
only league that wants them is spl but you think the FA want to ho back to the days when gazza Stevens etc were playing for rangers


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: kinboshi on June 21, 2014, 11:52:00 AM
Cahill did one superb piece of play in the Uruguay game.

He made a good tackle and rather than punt it aimlessly ala Jags or pass it to Henderson or Gerrard for them to dwell on he took the ball out of defence and fed an excellent pass which led to a great chance.

He does this regularly for Chelsea, i dont believe for a second he had been told not to bring the ball out (on occasion) i can only assume the reason he resisted doing it more was the worry about making an error which led to England going out.

Which is a bit ironic after what happened later.


It's interesting you bring that up, because at Liverpool Hodgson actually instructed the players to "hoof" the ball out of defence instead of playing possession football and trying to work it out of defence.

There was an interesting infographic showing Reina's distribution in a game compared to exactly the same fixture a year later under Hodgson. Basically, it went from short, accurate passes to big "hoofs" down the field, bypassing the midfield. There was no surprise to see the lack of possession Liverpool enjoyed under Hodgson, and also the lack of results.

I don't think it was a coincidence.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: MintTrav on June 21, 2014, 01:48:53 PM
It's not the manager. His extraordinary record proves that. It's the players.

England has had three of the best managers in the world in recent years but, despite their skills, none of them has been able to really make it work in international championships for one simple reason - the players they have been given just haven't been as good as the players from several other countries.

Unless they can attract someone like Scolari or Hiddink, England's best option is to stick with Hodgson.

Please tell me this is a sarcastic post.

You're a bitter Liverpool supporter with a blind spot regarding Hodgson. Winning the World Cup would not convince you that he is a good manager.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Hodgson


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: horseplayer on June 21, 2014, 02:00:03 PM
i would be tempted to agree with that however a bit of delving...

46% and 63% of the ball against Italy and Uruguay are certainly not indicators of a side who dont keep the ball though and i didnt see many long balls aimed forward at all (excluding the obligatory sg 60 yard "pass")

Infact both the betting markets for England possession were over the spread quoted.



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: kinboshi on June 21, 2014, 06:57:01 PM
It's not the manager. His extraordinary record proves that. It's the players.

England has had three of the best managers in the world in recent years but, despite their skills, none of them has been able to really make it work in international championships for one simple reason - the players they have been given just haven't been as good as the players from several other countries.

Unless they can attract someone like Scolari or Hiddink, England's best option is to stick with Hodgson.

Please tell me this is a sarcastic post.

You're a bitter Liverpool supporter with a blind spot regarding Hodgson. Winning the World Cup would not convince you that he is a good manager.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Hodgson


Not bitter at all, was objective when he arrived and supported him fully when he started at Liverpool despite any doubts. He did nothing to relieve these doubts, in fact he reinforced them.

But he did a cracking job in this world cup, and I take it all back. Give him the job for life...


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: kinboshi on June 21, 2014, 07:01:30 PM
Can a fan of any top-flight team honestly tell me they'd want Hodgson to come in and manage them? He'd probably do a decent job with someone like Villa (no insult to Villa intended) and get them playing a style of pragmatic football helping them avoid relegation. He's not completely useless, obviously. He's just not very good.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: kinboshi on June 21, 2014, 07:09:11 PM
i would be tempted to agree with that however a bit of delving...

46% and 63% of the ball against Italy and Uruguay are certainly not indicators of a side who dont keep the ball though and i didnt see many long balls aimed forward at all (excluding the obligatory sg 60 yard "pass")

Infact both the betting markets for England possession were over the spread quoted.



My point was about how he set Liverpool up to play. It was neither pretty nor effective.

I thought going forward England were set up pretty well, and in bursts played some nice stuff. Without the defensive errors we deserved at least a draw. We did tend to counter-attack too slowly though, and third rendered the benefit the England side has in terms of pace obsolete.

Against Uruguay, the attack was more disjointed. Good players looked very poor at times, and these are players we've seen play some very good attacking football in the league this season.

The players aren't absolved of all the blame of course. But in my opinion, there's a reason these players underperformed, and it's not that they didn't care because they're more interested in money than winning with England.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: kinboshi on June 21, 2014, 07:10:39 PM
Messi scores in injury time to break Iran's hearts.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: MANTIS01 on June 21, 2014, 10:03:05 PM
When we scored the equaliser against Uruguay the game was there to be won. England were pressing high up the pitch and had all the momentum. Then we foul throw and give possession back, nicely relieving the pressure on our opponents. We made several individual errors like that and it cost us dear. I don't know what causes players not to throw-in properly during a vital world cup match but I don't think it's anything to do with Roy.

Our back four simply aren't world class, too many individual errors, our midfield is far from world class (how on earth has Henderson snuck into the strarting 11?), and strikers? Well we don't have a Luis Suarez do we? We switch off, we get sloppy, we have no quality in the final third. I think we have very high expectations of magic man Woy Hodgson if we think he should be making this shower of shite shine on the world stage. I mean why is Glenn Johnson backing away from Cavani for the first goal? That's Edinson Cavani Glenn! He's quite dangerous in space.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: arbboy on June 21, 2014, 11:44:21 PM
Will England take the 3rd game seriously and play their 'first' 11 as per the first two games?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 21, 2014, 11:56:07 PM
Will England take the 3rd game seriously and play their 'first' 11 as per the first two games?

Almost no chance of that, I suspect.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: pleno1 on June 22, 2014, 12:03:56 AM
lol

henderson would be in every national team bar maybe germany/spain and even then ckise


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: arbboy on June 22, 2014, 12:05:53 AM
lol

henderson would be in every national team bar maybe germany/spain and even then ckise

What you been drinking tonight?  You sure?  Hendo 1.01 to make the argie starting 11?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on June 22, 2014, 12:06:09 AM
Lol.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Tal on June 22, 2014, 12:08:43 AM
lol

henderson would be in every national team bar maybe germany/spain and even then ckise

Jordan Henderson??! You've seen the games so far, right?

Oh hang on. Misread that.

You mean he'd be in every national team bar, as in pub. Fair enough. Apologies.

What happens if we lose to Costa Rica?

- Hodgson goes (FA will be under insurmountable pressure from the press and know it alls)
- Gerrard retires (bizarre phenomenon, retiring)
- Rooney becomes captain
- Mourinho approached, laughs uncontrollably and declines.
- Ian Holloway gets support from The Sun and goes odds on to get the job?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 22, 2014, 12:12:19 AM
lol

henderson would be in every national team bar maybe germany/spain and even then ckise

I'll concentrate on Germany because that's the team I know most about.

He'd be about 15th in a list of midfielders for the German team. That's not close. Wouldn't be anywhere near it.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Ironside on June 22, 2014, 12:21:43 AM
lol

henderson would be in every national team bar maybe germany/spain and even then ckise

I'll concentrate on Germany because that's the team I know most about.

He'd be about 15th in a list of midfielders for the German team. That's not close. Wouldn't be anywhere near it.

ffs he would be 2nd choice for the scottish team behind fletcher


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: arbboy on June 22, 2014, 12:31:42 AM
lol

henderson would be in every national team bar maybe germany/spain and even then ckise

Those breezers must taste good tonight before you focus and bink 17 Sunday majors online tomorrow night!!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: pleno1 on June 22, 2014, 12:57:17 AM
really guys? lol

usa - yes definitely
portugal - yes definitely
belgium - pretty close between him and witsel
russia - yes
south korea - yes
algeria - yes
cameroon - yes
brazil - yes imo, others will say no but both brazil cms dont get a game for their club teams
croatia - yes
mexico - yes
australia - yes
spain - probably not like i said, although they are ageing, by next year he definitely would
netherlands - yes
chile - yes
greece - yes
ivory coast - yes
japan - yes
colombia - yes
costa rica - yes
england - yes
uruguay - yes
italy - i guess pirlo/de rossi go ahead of him
ecuador - yes
france - yes
honduras - yes
switzerland - yes
bosnia - yes
iran - yes
argentina - yes
nigeria - yes

so out of 32 i would say probably 27ish are definites. im not so sure what is so lol about it.

lol

henderson would be in every national team bar maybe germany/spain and even then ckise

Jordan Henderson??! You've seen the games so far, right?

Oh hang on. Misread that.

You mean he'd be in every national team bar, as in pub. Fair enough. Apologies.



yes did you?

football isnt all about doing tricks or what looks good to casual fans. for midfielders you need to have somebody with an engine and that is more all round, see why ghana overpowered germany and their 15 better midfielders than jordan henderson, why costa rica overpowered italy and why spain were very unsuccessful.

england had gerrard next to him playing too deep and doing the same role, we needed somebody in gerrards position to supply the balls to our forwards not sit deep aswell, we kept the ball ok but we didnt pass through teams like pirlo did vs us in game 1.

How the media thought he played

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/27853470

"Fine first half and understandably tired as the second half went on. Great energy in these conditions."

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup-2014/england-vs-italy-player-ratings-3652878

Worked really hard, broke up play and got forward. Also had a searing shot brilliantly saved by Italy keeper Sirigu.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2097171-england-vs-italy-world-cup-group-d-score-grades-and-post-match-reaction

good overall score, higher than verrati and as high as de rossi who being on a winning team will naturally get higher points.

So from the first game where you were so vocal about him the general consensus of the press who have previously given him a tough time is that he did well, with an above average performance and did as well or better than the italy midfield.


Uruguay game

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/19/uruguay-england-world-cup-group-d-ratings
A neat and tidy enough performance against opponents that pressed hard in midfield. A couple of telling interceptions

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/worldcup/england-vs-uruguay-match-report-world-cup-2014-luis-suarez-puts-england-on-the-brink-of-exit-despite-wayne-rooneys-first-world-cup-strike-in-21-loss-9550474.html
Ran hard without the ball but failed to make much of a contribution going forward as England lacked ideas in the middle of the pitch.

Key stat from this game is that...

Key stat: Jordan Henderson made more passes (61) than any other player on either side.

So whilst he is perhaps not driving us forward, he made more passes than Gerrard and ran hard and worked very well.

He has been very good all season for Liverpool being one of the reasons they have done so well, I think hes also been tipped by many as a future Liverpool captain. He made 35 appearences in the league and was chosen for basically every game, he was sent off late in the season when they were chasing one of the title matches and many said with him they may have done better and they started to underperform when he was out of the team. The goals they concede without Hendo in the team is double of that when he is in the team, he is a really good defensive midfielder

In this article where he was tipped as 3rd for Liverpools player of the year ahead of Sturridge/Sterling/Coutinho etc you can see he was not a sub in any game and was only substituted once in the whole season, for a centre midfielder very impressive.

http://www.goal.com/en/news/1717/editorial/2014/05/14/4817066/who-is-liverpools-player-of-the-season?ICID=PP_25258


"It is hard to quantify the influence of Henderson over the season as his impact has often been to provide different things at different times. With Gerrard sidelined in the winter it was Henderson who shouldered creative responsibility from midfield, providing a vital link to the attack and urging Liverpool on with promptings from the centre circle and sparking what were arguably the season’s two best performances: at White Hart Lane and the Etihad Stadium.

During Liverpool’s blistering run into the business end of the season, Henderson constantly provided the unstylish but crucial service of pressing high and passing simple. It is no understatement to say that many Anfield regulars fully expect – and would be supremely pleased to see – Henderson take the captain’s armband once Gerrard finally decides to relinquish it. He has been a quiet revelation this season."

Football is all about opinions, i dont necessarily think that you have to play football to understand certain parts of football, but there is definitely some truth in it. When the world cup comes around people sensationalize everything and only see world cups, back heels and bad refereeing decisions.

The fact is with his form over the last 1 year, every team in the world cup would have taken him to Brazil and he would be starting for the majority of them.







Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: arbboy on June 22, 2014, 01:04:38 AM
Let's see how good he is next year when Suar has moved to Spain, Gerrard is another year closer to being past it at the top level and the Scousers get humiliated in the group stages of the Champs League and finish back in their usual 5th/6th in the EPL.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: jakally on June 22, 2014, 01:04:57 AM
Personally think that Henderson was one of England's better players in the WC.
Did his job very well, and did very little wrong.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 22, 2014, 01:05:44 AM
Personally think that Henderson was one of England's better players in the WC.
Did his job very well, and did very little wrong.


Don't doubt this, but pads suggesting he is like what, 7th best CM on the world.

Madness.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: arbboy on June 22, 2014, 01:07:11 AM
Personally think that Henderson was one of England's better players in the WC.
Did his job very well, and did very little wrong.


I don't disagree with this summary but that's massively different to walking into 29 out of the other 31 WC team's first 11s when your team is going home with it's tail behind it's legs after 2 defeats in 2 games!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: arbboy on June 22, 2014, 01:11:37 AM
Personally think that Henderson was one of England's better players in the WC.
Did his job very well, and did very little wrong.


Don't doubt this, but pads suggesting he is like what, 7th best CM on the world.

Madness.

He wouldn't have to be anywhere near the 7th best CM in the world necessarily to fulfill Pads statement of being in every starting 11 bar 2 in the world cup.  Nothing like that tbf but i get your point.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: pleno1 on June 22, 2014, 01:12:37 AM

Don't doubt this, but pads suggesting he is like what, 7th best CM on the world.

Madness.
[/quote]

why does it suggest that?

Personally think that Henderson was one of England's better players in the WC.
Did his job very well, and did very little wrong.


yeah and he is very very inexperienced for a cm at international level


Personally think that Henderson was one of England's better players in the WC.
Did his job very well, and did very little wrong.


I don't disagree with this summary but that's massively different to walking into 29 out of the other 31 WC team's first 11s when your team is going home with it's tail behind it's legs after 2 defeats in 2 games!

were talking about pre world cup, or are you saying iniesta wouldnt walk into 29 teams because his team lost 2 games?

im saying like every other team, england pick their players on merit, or at least they should. which teams arbboy do you think henderson wouldnt play for in this world cup? if its over 25 then theres a chance we just disagree on a couple of players individually and its variance if its under 25 then we simply disagree on football.

Personally think that Henderson was one of England's better players in the WC.
Did his job very well, and did very little wrong.


Don't doubt this, but pads suggesting he is like what, 7th best CM on the world.

Madness.

He wouldn't have to be anywhere near the 7th best CM in the world necessarily to fulfill Pads statement of being in every starting 11 bar 2 in the world cup.  Nothing like that tbf

exactly.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on June 22, 2014, 01:14:45 AM
Jakally is correct, and henderson is a good young Player but can easily disagree with him getting in about 15 of the Teams named. Eg argentina ahead of mascherano and gago?  Just glib to say he would.  Same applies to gerrard, he wouldn't get in either


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: pleno1 on June 22, 2014, 01:15:16 AM
for tranparency i think

modric, iniesta, pirlo, kroos, other germans, di maria are way better than henderson, in a completely different league.. its like comparing a right back with a centre half though.

his competition is

khedira, cabaye, xabi alonso, paulinho, de rossi, de jong

and then god knows who from all of the punting countries


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 22, 2014, 01:16:39 AM
Since you've mentioned Modric, he's not better than Rakitic either.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: pleno1 on June 22, 2014, 01:18:37 AM
Jakally is correct, and henderson is a good young Player but can easily disagree with him getting in about 15 of the Teams named. Eg argentina ahead of mascherano and gago?  Just glib to say he would.  Same applies to gerrard, he wouldn't get in either

gago didnt even start the tournament as first choice. like i said in the last post i think its pretty clearly above 25 teams. if anything henderson would be exactly what argentina need, they play so attacking they need players who can cover ground in the centre of the pitch, mascherano and gago especially are not very mobile/worst athletes than henderson.

if mascherano was truly a world class midfielder i doubt he would play in defence for barcelona.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: arbboy on June 22, 2014, 01:19:26 AM

Don't doubt this, but pads suggesting he is like what, 7th best CM on the world.

Madness.

why does it suggest that?

Personally think that Henderson was one of England's better players in the WC.
Did his job very well, and did very little wrong.


yeah and he is very very inexperienced for a cm at international level


Personally think that Henderson was one of England's better players in the WC.
Did his job very well, and did very little wrong.


I don't disagree with this summary but that's massively different to walking into 29 out of the other 31 WC team's first 11s when your team is going home with it's tail behind it's legs after 2 defeats in 2 games!

were talking about pre world cup, or are you saying iniesta wouldnt walk into 29 teams because his team lost 2 games?

im saying like every other team, england pick their players on merit, or at least they should. which teams arbboy do you think henderson wouldnt play for in this world cup? if its over 25 then theres a chance we just disagree on a couple of players individually and its variance if its under 25 then we simply disagree on football.

Personally think that Henderson was one of England's better players in the WC.
Did his job very well, and did very little wrong.


Don't doubt this, but pads suggesting he is like what, 7th best CM on the world.

Madness.

He wouldn't have to be anywhere near the 7th best CM in the world necessarily to fulfill Pads statement of being in every starting 11 bar 2 in the world cup.  Nothing like that tbf

exactly.
[/quote]

You have summed it up perfectly in the bold sentence.  Hardly any team in the top 6 in the betting would take a chance with such an inexperienced at the top level (internationally/champions league) player in the biggest event in world football.   This is one of the many reasons why England continue to fail at the top table of international football.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: pleno1 on June 22, 2014, 01:21:20 AM
Since you've mentioned Modric, he's not better than Rakitic either.

do you truly think if henderson was from croatia he would be on the bench in their games in this world cup? that is the point here..


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 22, 2014, 01:23:32 AM
Since you've mentioned Modric, he's not better than Rakitic either.

do you truly think if henderson was from croatia he would be on the bench in their games in this world cup? that is the point here..

It's very hard to say, he wouldn't get picked ahead of Rakitic and Modric though. Whether Croatia would shuffle pack to accommodate all three is too hypothetical for me.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: pleno1 on June 22, 2014, 01:26:51 AM
arboy, i agree, they wouldnt play ross barkley, or luke shaw and they would take ashley cole and they would beg john terry.

but henderson has played a super super mature role in a liverpool team, shown great consistency and he played every minute of every game for a reason, because he is reliable and focussed, he is exactly the kind of player who does well in international football.

as you can see with sterling/sturridge one minute they are awesome, the next minute they are awful.

i 10000000% agree with you on your general point, but just dont think henderson falls into that category.

Henderson is 25

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marco_Verratti 21
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Pogba 21
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paulinho_(footballer) 25
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luiz_Gustavo 26
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toni_Kroos 24
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Müller 24 (played the last world cup)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesut_Özil 25, played the last world cup


im sure there are many many more...


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: pleno1 on June 22, 2014, 01:29:26 AM
ironic thing about this is that ive played against henderson maybe 20 times in my life and always thought he was awful :D


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: arbboy on June 22, 2014, 01:35:33 AM
sure i get your point but he has played on a well rested, one game a week (no cup/champs league/europa league) liverpool team which over achieved (imo as much as they under achieved the year below stats wise - just short term variance across two seasons ironing itself out) as a unit because of the freak that was suar last year and how well prepared and rested they were compared to their EPL rivals last year because of their favourable schedule.  I am not saying he wont be as good as you say next season and going forward but its not a certainty that you seem to think it is and my opinion is that the vast majority of teams above England in the betting pre event wouldnt have started him in their first 11.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 22, 2014, 01:36:59 AM
On the subject of experience....

Stat from BBC commentate about Germany:

Müller, Özil and Götze have smt like 130 caps between them and all u25.

Schweinsteiger, only 29, has almost that many on his own (103).

Henderson has 13 and is 24.

So the question is, why isn't Henderson playing for England earlier, if he's potentially as good as a Müller or a Schweini?

The answer is the Premier League.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: pleno1 on June 22, 2014, 01:43:24 AM
lol come on marc, if either of them were english they wouldnt have played either.

lampard and gerrard were in their prime, no amtter how much they underperformed they were absolute definite starters.

scholes used to play left wing ffs


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 22, 2014, 01:53:13 AM
Yeah they were so prime that Germany outperformed England througout that period.

They were just examples, you can pick any position and any player and compare to, roughly, any of the big teams and fact is they get more experience earlier. I'm sure eg you already know how youth football works in Spain so won't bore you with details but it's so obviously better than England set up.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 22, 2014, 01:59:07 AM
Also, would you now drop Gerrard pre euro2016 qualifiers?

What would team look like for first euro qualifier? (Away to Switzerland, an prolly the hardest 'paper' game in group)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: pleno1 on June 22, 2014, 02:02:17 AM
its actually the opposite imo. the young players in the other international teams actually play together in the u20 world cups, we take players like walcott, luke shaw and others with no intention of playing them then the next 4 years when they could get tournament experience they are told by their clubs they cant go. spain, germany et al say fuck you.

next year we could take

Ross Barkley
Luke Shaw
Jack Wilshere (yes he's available)
Raheem Stirling
Phil Jones
Jon Flannagan
Tom Ince
John Stones
Wilfred Zaha
Alex Oxelaide Chamberlain
Jonjo Shelvey
Saido Berahino
Connor Wickham

but we will maybe take 1 or 2 at the most, spain will take all of the equivalent players. imagine if we took that team, wed surely be favourites going in, but we wont, we will take kids 2-3 years too young and lose a penalty shootout and gareth southgate will say we were unlucky.


it doesnt matter about germany outperforming england you asked why henderson had so few caps and blamed it on the premiership when every single manager in world football would have played them over mueller and schweinsteiger.

more on the above

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/05/stuart-pearce-ross-barkley-england

the experience they should get is playing with eachother in younger squads where they will get to know eachothers style, also a huge thing that you and nobody else has mentioned is that in spain there is abrcelona and real madrid who have all of the players in the international team so they know how to play together, in germany its the same with bayern and dortmund. in england we have chelsea, arsenal, liverpool everton and man united with an equal amount of players its a free for all.



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 22, 2014, 02:07:18 AM
its actually the opposite imo. the young players in the other international teams actually play together in the u20 world cups, we take players like walcott, luke shaw and others with no intention of playing them then the next 4 years when they could get tournament experience they are told by their clubs they cant go. spain, germany et al say fuck you.

next year we could take

Ross Barkley
Luke Shaw
Jack Wilshere (yes he's available)
Raheem Stirling
Phil Jones
Jon Flannagan
Tom Ince
John Stones
Wilfred Zaha
Alex Oxelaide Chamberlain
Jonjo Shelvey
Saido Berahino
Connor Wickham

but we will maybe take 1 or 2 at the most, spain will take all of the equivalent players. imagine if we took that team, wed surely be favourites going in, but we wont, we will take kids 2-3 years too young and lose a penalty shootout and gareth southgate will say we were unlucky.


it doesnt matter about germany outperforming england you asked why henderson had so few caps and blamed it on the premiership when every single manager in world football would have played them over mueller and schweinsteiger.

more on the above

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jun/05/stuart-pearce-ross-barkley-england

the experience they should get is playing with eachother in younger squads where they will get to know eachothers style, also a huge thing that you and nobody else has mentioned is that in spain there is abrcelona and real madrid who have all of the players in the international team so they know how to play together, in germany its the same with bayern and dortmund. in england we have chelsea, arsenal, liverpool everton and man united with an equal amount of players its a free for all.



yah agree with the u21 etc comments. players in England don't ever play for both teams, not so in ES, DE etc etc.

also the real/barca comparison is spot on - this never happens in england though because English players are too expensive relative to their skill and big clubs tend to hoard and then not play them. very very important issue imo.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: MANTIS01 on June 22, 2014, 08:05:21 AM
As an England fan I don't rightly care if Henderson's good enough to captain Cameroon or be the star player for Japan. What really matters is how he stacks up against England midfielders I've watched over the years. This is surely a better barometer for the current ability of the England side. I have grown up watching Ray Wilkins, Bryan Robson, Paul Scholes, Paul Gascoigne, Glenn Hoddle, David Platt, Stevie G, David Beckham, Paul Ince etc.

So if we consider the class of midfielder England are used to producing then I'm afraid Henderson is a long long way short of that quality. He is about the same level as David Batty. He was put in so we were solid and yet we conceded 4 goals in 2 games. He offered zero creativity going forward and often looked panic stricken at the back. Even aside from the aimless balls he looped into nobody in the box it was his refusal to pass to Ross Barkley which really got my goat. Why do you keep passing to Glenn Johnson instead Jordan? He is the full back and he is not very good!!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: youthnkzR on June 22, 2014, 09:01:34 PM
Wow Algeria. Played so well this first half.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on June 22, 2014, 09:09:40 PM
Next door's punting firm seem way ool with some of their prices. Just whacked some on for Golden Ball; Muller 40/1 (20 - 33/1 elsewhere) and Negredo 100/1 (40 - 50/1 elsewhere).
Ö

Only surprised by 2 of your list there Tighty:

Greece lowest scoring team? Colombia, Ivory Coast + Japan. I can see them scoring at least 2, plus Samaras is a beast.
Algeria. Assuming we are thinking Belgium to top the group comfortably and Algeria to see off Russia? Interested about this one.

Love the world cup. This is going to be by far the most I have outlayed pre tournament before. Gulp.



Greece.

Very defensive team. Recent friendly has them with Mitroglou the Fulham flop up front (though he did well in the play offs for them

"Portuguese coach Fernando Santos took over in 2010, but admits the legacy of predecessor Otto Rehhagel, under whom Greece won Euro 2004, remains "an identity that is not easy to change. We've tried to play a different way [but] then we slipped back into our comfort zone, our defensive strength." "

Very competitive Group, no pushovers to score goals. Japan and IC amongst the toughest teams in their seeding groupings. no iran, costa rica etc here

think its far too simplistic to look at the front of the market in lowest scorers...got to look at the most competitive groups where there isn't a pushover...



Algeria. One of the groups where I think second place is up for grabs. there is no natural goalsscorer in the russian team (kerzakhov and dzagoev out of form and favour with Capello recently), south Korea a shadow of the team of 2002-06

Algeria, v technically gifted and completely under-rated because they haven't played outside africa since 2010. I got to talk about them with a friend of a friend who translates for riyad mahrez who came over from france to lcfc, not speaking english and is in the world cup 30 for algeria. rates a player called Sofiane Feghouli, 23, highly

so i went and researched him "is an attacking midfielder or winger who was described by Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger a year ago as "exceptional" and "a physical beast"

so, possibly under-rated team, certainly an unknown team, in a group it looks possible to get out of. obviously you wouldn't fancy them to get out of a brazil/croatia/mexico or germany/portugal/ghana draw, but belgium/russia/korea and 6-1? speculative bet 
sweating no greece goal v ivory coast and algeria in the third game!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on June 22, 2014, 10:21:11 PM
Looking very good. wp sir.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mulhuzz on June 22, 2014, 10:34:23 PM
that 6/1 on Algeria looks incred tipping now mind. wp Tighty.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Jamier-Host on June 23, 2014, 01:43:59 PM
Really like the top 2 in this market. They are in the hardest groups and don't have any outstanding goal threats.

Think you could back both ew profitably, think we would be really unlucky to be outside the top 3.

I can see both teams scoring maybe 1 goal.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/lowest-scoring-team

Like the 15/2 Bet365 are offering on Iran myself. Interesting market, although remember the odd random set of results. e.g France scored none one year.

I'm in a similar boat to Richard but anti railing Iran against Bosnia (annoying they can still qualify!) and hoping for Cameroon and Greece to find their scoring boots. Dead heats suck.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Omm on June 24, 2014, 05:20:17 PM
For some reason it really gets to me how little effort the players put into the national anthem, it's not as if it makes them better at football.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Ironside on June 24, 2014, 06:28:17 PM
got to love the announcement of englands 3 latest sponsors


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on June 24, 2014, 06:33:08 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bq6RLNaCQAADR9M.jpg)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: George2Loose on June 24, 2014, 07:44:27 PM
Ivory coast/Columbia double 4/1. Good price or will Columbia rest too many players?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: DungBeetle on June 24, 2014, 08:31:55 PM
Hodgson. Comments embarrassing imo


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Tal on June 24, 2014, 08:42:51 PM
Prandelli and the head of the Italian FA both resign.

Game is made of such tiny margins.



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: claypole on June 24, 2014, 08:54:48 PM
Ivory coast/Columbia double 4/1. Good price or will Columbia rest too many players?

If they've got anything about them the Colombians will ship four goals and hope Ivory Coast win - alas I don't think they do it - the other half of the draw is really opening up and the real prize is for second in this group.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: The Baron on June 24, 2014, 09:47:28 PM
It's not the manager. His extraordinary record proves that. It's the players.

England has had three of the best managers in the world in recent years but, despite their skills, none of them has been able to really make it work in international championships for one simple reason - the players they have been given just haven't been as good as the players from several other countries.

Unless they can attract someone like Scolari or Hiddink, England's best option is to stick with Hodgson.

Please tell me this is a sarcastic post.

You're a bitter Liverpool supporter with a blind spot regarding Hodgson. Winning the World Cup would not convince you that he is a good manager.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Hodgson

Whatever anyone thinks of his record (which is average) no one can deny (unless they are blind) that he failed miserably tactically. For that he's lucky to be in his job.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: MANTIS01 on June 24, 2014, 10:02:14 PM
The Liverpool captain said after the Italy game that the manager had given the team an excellent game plan which the players had failed to execute. That said after his performances in this World Cup I'm willing to accept Stevie G is becoming visually impaired in his old age.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: MintTrav on June 25, 2014, 06:00:14 AM
The Liverpool captain said after the Italy game that the manager had given the team an excellent game plan which the players had failed to execute.

It's the players. As usual. Quote from Graham Taylor in that infamous programme "You can talk til you're fucking blue in the face.........................They've done everything that we told them not to do."


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: mondatoo on June 25, 2014, 06:08:31 PM
Messsssiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

Messssssssssiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

What a hero, joy to watch.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: arbboy on June 25, 2014, 06:09:51 PM
what a horrible goalkeeper.  Could you look more clueless trying to save that freekick.  Appreciate it was a good free kick but come on keeper actually look like you should be at the world cup!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: horseplayer on June 25, 2014, 06:13:48 PM
He is a very good keeper has been for a number of years

Still that wasnt so clever



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: rfgqqabc on June 25, 2014, 06:17:56 PM
Tbf he pulled a decent save off for the one before. Kinda expected it to go the same place, bit surprised he didnt.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: KitKeeper on June 26, 2014, 08:07:21 AM
James Rodriguez of Colombia is still 33/1 with one of the 1/4 1-2-3-4 bookies (betway).

With Uruguay minus Suarez fairly beatable, does another possible two games (playing Brazil or Chile in quarters) make this worth a bet?

He's scored in every game so far.

Thing is, I'm probably covering about 6 of them already!


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: rfgqqabc on June 26, 2014, 08:20:53 AM
Maxed at 0, and as an account check I looked at Portugal vs Ghana. £15.97...


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: millidonk on June 26, 2014, 02:51:14 PM
Portfolio update, removed everything that was completely dead in the water. Thanks to Honduras being terrible and Australia being really unlucky not to get a point we are close to freerolling our WC 2014 antepost bets.

Portfolio:

TGS EW

Cavani 40/1 Probably dead but if Suarez can't play and he bags a couple vs Colombia then he could be back in the race for ew money

Golden Boot outright on Betfair

Shaqiri 966/1 - now into 190/1 on BF. Could have been a decent sweat if he had turned up in the first couple of matches, they face Argentina next, but you never know in this tournament..

Player of tournament

Muller 40/1 If Germany can make at least the Semis and Muller scores a couple more but doesn't get the golden boot then this could have a real chance

Other stuff

Brazil win / Neymar tgs 20/1 My most realistic chance

Honduras & Australia to finish on 0pts 7/1 - Already been paid out



Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Ironside on June 26, 2014, 07:36:43 PM
A seven year old boy was at the center of a county courtroom drama yesterday when he challenged a court ruling over who should have custody of him. The boy had a history of being beaten by his parents and the judge initially awarded custody to his aunt, in keeping with child custody law and regulation requiring that family unity be maintained to the highest degree possible.

The boy surprised the court when he proclaimed that his aunt beat him more than his parents and he adamantly refused to live with her. When the judge then suggested that he live with his grandparents, the boy cried and said that they also beat him. After considering the remainder of the immediate family and learning that domestic violence was apparently a way of life among them, the judge took the unprecedented step of allowing the boy to propose who should have custody of him.

After two recesses to check legal references and confer with the child welfare officials, the judge granted temporary custody to the England national team, whom the boy firmly believes are not capable of beating anyone.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Tal on June 26, 2014, 08:56:35 PM
Saw this in the States a couple of weeks ago  and have finally found it to share:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVyqH7jydfM

Anyone else you think might be worth watching this tournament? Anyone maybe missing from your list?

Anyone?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: AdamM on June 27, 2014, 08:52:19 AM
lol Americans


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: The Baron on June 28, 2014, 12:58:28 AM
The Liverpool captain said after the Italy game that the manager had given the team an excellent game plan which the players had failed to execute. That said after his performances in this World Cup I'm willing to accept Stevie G is becoming visually impaired in his old age.

Even if Messi said it, it wouldn't change Hodgson's shit game plan. I'm sure most football fans will see that.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on June 28, 2014, 01:28:11 AM
Portfolio so far, freerolling the rest of the tournament mainly down to Marchision dead heating top Italian scorer and Belgium being called dark horses.

Got a free bet from betbright after Argies won, stuck it on 6 or more goals in Algeria/S Korea game at 33/1. Bink.

Bought Bosnia's goals @4.4 settled @ 4, pity Dzeko's goal v Nigeria didnt stand could have been big upside.

Bought Portugals corners @ 26.9. Settled @ 17.


Nice portfolio there Dwayne, Mine is as follows:




Belgium to be called a dark horse   PP   5/4

Messi top scorer   pp   8/1

Costa Rica lowest scorers   pp   11/2


Thiago Silva player of tournament   BV   66/1

Hulk top Brazilian scorer   BV   12/1


Hulk Player of the tournament   Bet365   80/1

Argentina world cup winner   Unibet   9/2

Argentina world cup winner   Betbright   9/2

Vidal Top scorer   Betfair   150/1

Rodriguez top scorer   Betfair   290/1

Shaqiri top scorer   Betfair   800/1


Vidal Top scorer   Coral   125/1


Marchisio top Italian scorer   Boylesports   28/1

Hugo Lloris Golden Glove   PP   18/1

Altidore top NE scorer   Coral     6/1

Benzema more goals than Higuain & Messi more than Neymar   Ladbrokes   5/2 & 1/1





Been unlucky with Altidore bet, he got injured in first match.

Costa Rica lowest scorers worst bet of the tournament on my part.

Also added Colombia @ 22's and Mexico @ 33's for world cup.




Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: maldini32 on June 28, 2014, 01:29:14 AM
Plenty of losers too


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: DropTheHammer on June 28, 2014, 01:03:59 PM
Betfair Sportsbook are offering freebet cashback if any of the last 16 matches go to extra time on their Correct Score, Scorecast, First, Last or Anytime Goalscorer markets. I fancy the Columbia/Uruguay match for this to likely happen, possibly CR/Greece too? Up to £25...


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on June 28, 2014, 08:25:05 PM
Superstar holding 3 in midfield for chile

isla, diaz and espeically aranguiz...ran the show.

wouldn't get in ahead of jordan henderson mind :-)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: KitKeeper on July 02, 2014, 09:49:18 PM
van Persie still 14/1 with Coral... 1/4 odds 1-2-3.

If the Dutch beat Costa Rica, he will be guaranteed another two games... You'd have to think 5 would be enough for e/w money.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: George2Loose on July 03, 2014, 12:12:08 AM
Columbia and Germany to qualify 5:1- any love?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: MintTrav on July 08, 2014, 09:21:42 PM
I wish the commentators would learn how to pronounce the name Thiago.

'Chago', not 'Theeago'.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: 77dave on July 08, 2014, 09:36:39 PM
Does anybody know what price Rodriguez was to be top scorer before the World Cup started?


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TightEnd on July 08, 2014, 09:37:41 PM
Does anybody know what price Rodriguez was to be top scorer before the World Cup started?

700/1, according to oddschecker

100/1 after his first goal during their first game


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Tal on July 08, 2014, 09:49:34 PM
Apparently, it's not just Maicon these days

(http://www.ybcommunications.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/taxi-rank-2.jpg)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: TheDazzler on July 08, 2014, 11:25:47 PM
I'm guessing there is going to be some serious rioting in Brazil tonight. And I also predict the government will fall in the aftermath of this.
The 3rd place playoff will be interesting too. If they get tonked by Argentina.......


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Tal on July 08, 2014, 11:36:52 PM
Germany have now scored the most all time goals in the world cup (223)

(per Bleacher Report)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Ironside on July 11, 2014, 08:42:07 PM
well done FIFA had enough of these refs at the world cup have given the final to a woman nicola rizzoli

must be the first female to ref at a world cup finals never mind the final itself

:-)


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: MintTrav on July 12, 2014, 10:18:58 AM
well done FIFA had enough of these refs at the world cup have given the final to a woman nicola rizzoli

must be the first female to ref at a world cup finals never mind the final itself

:-)

Reminds me of when France won the World Cup with a team of girls - Lilian Thuram, Fabienne Barthez, Emmanuelle Petit, Lauren Blanc, Liza Razu, Teresa Gay.........


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: BigAdz on July 13, 2014, 08:44:58 PM
Lahm being given way too much room down the right. Only a matter of time if they dont close him down.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Tal on July 13, 2014, 08:46:45 PM
If anyone likes getting all the sporting social media stuff while watching football, you'll like the Bleacher Report stream:

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/2128091-argentina-vs-germany-live-score-highlights-for-world-cup-2014-final


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Tal on July 13, 2014, 09:25:11 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BscqncmCQAEUeDJ.jpg:large)

Reid Wiseman        ✔ @astro_reid

Watching #WorldCup finals with @astro_alex and our #Exp40 crew. Great game so far!

8:33 PM - 13 Jul 2014


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: kinboshi on July 13, 2014, 10:01:26 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BscqncmCQAEUeDJ.jpg:large)

Reid Wiseman        ✔ @astro_reid

Watching #WorldCup finals with @astro_alex and our #Exp40 crew. Great game so far!

8:33 PM - 13 Jul 2014


Very cool.

Bet they're not watching it on ITV.


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: FUN4FRASER on July 13, 2014, 10:12:01 PM
2 bets I've seen with Laddies. Player goalscoring match bets:

Benzema @ 5/2 v Higuain

Messi @ evens v Neymar.

Draw is a runner in both match ups

The Benzema one is a bonkers price. Will start every game, Higuain not as certain. Benzema a better striker Imo and Ancelotti's. Expect France to go deep.



Cheers Maldini......Cracking Recommendation   @ 5-2      Result         Benzema  3-1  Higuain      :)up


Title: Re: 2014 World Cup Betting / Discussion thread
Post by: Tal on July 13, 2014, 11:26:45 PM
Jürgen Klinsmann        ✔ @J_Klinsmann

YES YES YES !!! JOGI YOU DID IT !!!
HUGE COMPLIMENT TO ARGENTINA, BUT THE BEST TEAM WON THE 2014 WORLD CUP! #DFBTeam #USMNT #FifaWorldCup

10:47 PM - 13 Jul 2014