blonde poker forum

Half an hour into day 2 of this weekend's £250 deepstack. I returned with 320k, now got 295k. Average is ~220k

Table is ok, couple of tough spots, very mixed though i'd say.

Blinds are 2500/5000 a 500

I make it 12k UTG +2 with  Aspades Qs

I get one caller in the BB. Not played a hand so far but it is only 3rd orbit.

Flop is  Qh 4s 6h

BB checks, i make it 15k.

BB fairly quickly after short dwell makes it 32k from his stack of ~115K.

WWYD? Flat and evaluate, jam, fold?
What is my opponents range?
Thoughts on turn bet size?

fold and wait to flop bottom set against a mug like me who flops top 2 and barrel all three streets!!!  Was good to meet you at the weekend Junior all joking aside.  I am always seeing the turn card here with top top and a back door flush door.  Loads of equity to potentially pick up on the turn for such a cheap price. 

Yeh always peeling here with not much intention of giving up the hand unless oppo turns his cards over and we see that we are beat.

I'd bet between 10-15k depending on a variety of fairly trivial factors. I'd shove now, we can't be drawing if we call and he can always level himself. I don't see his stack off range changing much if he has some sort of bluff.

Would rather 3b/call than shove

Thanks for the comments.

If we peel and the turn doesnt help us or complete draws, then he jams. What do we do?

So turn is say  9c

He shoves.

Prefer to keep calling down, maybe fold if a heart comes. So yeah when the 9 comes i'd put the chips in, if he got a set he got it.

Think with 3b flop we might lose some like Qx hands finding out where they were at, and any rando bluffs he can have.

Why? You think he has enough chips to 4 bet jam bluffs and draws and worse Q's?

I think we will put more hands that we best when we click rather than when we jam.

Someone in a 250 is never going to 4b jam as a bluff over a flop 3b but might "put you on 99/AK/67/22/fd" if you shove.

Snappety mcsnapping 90% of turn cards

What if there are no spades on flop and we therefore have no backfire flush draw. We still peeling? Or jamming. Nobody is suggesting folding here

I'd be all-in now.

Does nobody soul read fold here on the flop? Not like he has the stack for this bet to be anything but than nuts hands right?

He's got like 25bbs effective to start the hand, he's flatted out of the bb, we make top top and really want to fold? What are we giving him here, 44 and 66 and thats it? I'm pretty happily getting it in here, just jamming it in his eye. Whoever he is doesn't necessarily have to know about pot size, effective stacks, appropriate raise sizing etc in a 250 liveament, so this definitely isn't just one of two sets.

Unless you have some definite ninja read he has it I think you have to go with it. I can't think of a hand a live player sizes it this small here though. All his shitty two pair combos and draws probably jam so I wouldn't be loving life

Well in game i jammed and he called off with  Ahrt 4h for pair and a flush draw. He hit, which is perhaps making me analyse it more than if i had held.

When thinking through this later i got to thinking what hands was i actually beating here that calls a jam and i couldn't think of any or not very many so thought is there a case for just folding.

He peels QJ, QK, Q10 hands. He jams (in my mind) flush draws and straight draw combos or maybe peels them sometimes. Maybe he was trying to rep a set knowing he had huge equity to call it off i jam and he felt this sizing looks stronger than jamming. Maybe he is leaving himself a turn jam stack size if he misses?

A jam probably folds out the hands i crush.

As it happens i actually think given the action and bet sizing i was in about as good a shape as i could expect. Maybe i am being negative though.

It's difficult to soul read without being sat in your seat...

can't fold this no

Definitely think you're overthinking this hand buddy

Its hard to make a soul read reading the hand on a forum though, I know that if I had no information then I would go all in now in this spot, if for some reason I had a read that he had s nut nut nut hand then I would defo consider folding.

I wouldn't go just in his stack size though, I don't think that is reason enough for folding.

My analysis of this hand is that one player had top pair top kicker and one player had the nut flush draw. Both players liked their hands and as a result the money went in. Thankyou.

Thin brag if you get rivered bro

thanks to most of you for the comments.

Thin "I got to day 2" brag imo.