blonde poker forum

I'm learning PLO. I'm playing on stars.es 100PL and live €5/5 here in Barcelona. It's a lot of fun, and the games certainly seem very beatable, and although higher stakes than you guys might advise, I'm keen to learn at a level where the money means something. I find myself in a lot of spots where I don't really know what to do, but I think I get the general idea of the game alright, and can apply a lot of holdem concepts to PLO reasonably well.

I'll post quite a few hands in PHA by means of learning and improving, and hopefully others also at a similar stage can benefit from the replies and we can all learn together.

The first two hands seem to highlight my uncertainly about playing weak KKxx oop. Do we peel this small 3bet? And in hand 2, what's our default from the sb here vs btn 2.5x?

PokerStars Hand #121963583835:  Omaha Pot Limit (€0.50/€1.00 EUR) - 2014/09/23 19:50:40 WET [2014/09/23 14:50:40 ET]
Table 'Walbeck V' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: JuanTime777 (€147.70 in chips)
Seat 2: Alekhinebcn (€100 in chips)
Seat 3: bawuer (€78.33 in chips)
Seat 6: TiltRai$e (€106.50 in chips)
bawuer: posts small blind €0.50
TiltRai$e: posts big blind €1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to JuanTime777 [Kh 7s 4c Kd]
JuanTime777: raises €2 to €3
Alekhinebcn: raises €5 to €8
bawuer: folds
TiltRai$e: folds
JuanTime777: calls €5
*** FLOP *** [5s 2s 9c]
JuanTime777: checks
Alekhinebcn: bets €9.50
JuanTime777: calls €9.50
*** TURN *** [5s 2s 9c] [6h]
JuanTime777: checks
Alekhinebcn: checks
*** RIVER *** [5s 2s 9c 6h] [5h]
JuanTime777: checks
Alekhinebcn: checks


PokerStars Hand #121969707563:  Omaha Pot Limit (€0.50/€1.00 EUR) - 2014/09/23 21:39:30 WET [2014/09/23 16:39:30 ET]
Table 'Parvulesco IV' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Rafs Dwan (€162.67 in chips)
Seat 2: iPodu (€38.01 in chips)
Seat 3: Huck3be1n (€116.30 in chips)
Seat 4: patinho77 (€107.16 in chips)
Seat 5: JuanTime777 (€130.76 in chips)
Seat 6: zmaksjx (€166.48 in chips)
JuanTime777: posts small blind €0.50
zmaksjx: posts big blind €1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to JuanTime777 [9d Ks 2h Kc]
Rafs Dwan: folds
iPodu: folds
Huck3be1n: folds
patinho77: raises €1.50 to €2.50
JuanTime777:

Was going to say fold utg in the first but your 4 handed. Think i play it the same way.

2nd I'd fold lots I think but it would depend largely on the blinds and the weak spots.

subscribed.

i'd fold flop in hand 1 with no future playability.

hand 2 id fold pre.

Hello JuanTime. (Groan...).

I know it is short handed, & I'm wayyyyy to tight, but I fold both pre.

I don't think either hand is playable.

Our best hope for the first (K-K-7-4) is wrapping a 5-6-x flop.

The 2nd hard is even worse, K-K-9-2, nowhere to go with that baby.

Neither hands have any suited equity, either. 

I suppose I am way too tight, but when I play PLO, my first requirement is cards that work well together.

Both those hands are one pair hands, with very little scope or improvers.

When we get to the turn or river, & someone piles the coals on, we are gonna be squirming in our seat.   

I would much rather start with, say, 9-10-J-Q & a suit than K-K-poo-poo.

Hand 1 - I think folding flop is best play. Calling is slightly closer if we had the King of spades and if we had something like KK68 I'd definitely be calling the flop bet but we get barrelled off too often and have 1 nutted turn card so fold to flop bet imo.

Hand 2 - I'd call or sometimes 3-bet. I certainly wouldn't ever fold it pre to a button open. Idk what button %'s are standard in 6max NL but in PLO you can profitably open a really high %. I fold like bottom 20% and I'm tight. People do defend more now from the blinds than they used to so that might have changed a bit but I don't think we should ever be folding here. Flatting seems like probably the best play.

@Tikay - play tighter pls.

@Alex - how much time do you want to put into learning PLO? Going to make a skype group if you're interested

ICM?

Lol, do behave.

That's why I'm a penny player & you play for proper money.

I suppose if I somehow found a way to get to the river, I might hero call a bet as the paired 5 mostly improves my hand a shedload, but I'm not sure I could get to the river.

(http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=lxy&chd=t:0,0.28,0.28,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.83,0.83,0.83,0.83,0.83,1.11,1.39,2.22,2.22,2.5,2.78,3.33,3.61,5.0,5.83,6.11,6.11,6.94,6.94,7.22,7.5,7.78,7.78,7.78,7.78,8.89,8.89,10.0,10.83,11.39,11.94,12.78,13.61,14.44,16.11,18.06,18.89,19.44,20.28,21.11,23.61,26.39,29.44,31.39,34.44,38.33,41.39,44.17,48.33,51.67,53.61,56.94,60.56,62.22,63.61,67.22,69.44,71.94,74.72,77.22,78.33,81.67,83.06,84.17,85.56,87.5,89.44,91.94,93.33,94.44,95.56,96.39,96.67,97.5,98.33,98.33,98.61,98.61,98.61,98.61,98.89,99.72,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0|100,99.0,98.0,97.0,96.0,95.0,94.0,93.0,92.0,91.0,90.0,89.0,88.0,87.0,86.0,85.0,84.0,83.0,82.0,81.0,80.0,79.0,78.0,77.0,76.0,75.0,74.0,73.0,72.0,71.0,70.0,69.0,68.0,67.0,66.0,65.0,64.0,63.0,62.0,61.0,60.0,59.0,58.0,57.0,56.0,55.0,54.0,53.0,52.0,51.0,50.0,49.0,48.0,47.0,46.0,45.0,44.0,43.0,42.0,41.0,40.0,39.0,38.0,37.0,36.0,35.0,34.0,33.0,32.0,31.0,30.0,29.0,28.0,27.0,26.0,25.0,24.0,23.0,22.0,21.0,20.0,19.0,18.0,17.0,16.0,15.0,14.0,13.0,12.0,11.0,10.0,9.0,8.0,7.0,6.0,5.0,4.0,3.0,2.0,1.0,0.0&chs=600x400&chds=0,100&chxt=x,y,x,y,t&chxl=0:|0|10|20|30|40|50|60|70|80|90|100|1:|0|10|20|30|40|50|60|70|80|90|100|2:||Percentage+of+flops||3:||Min.%20Equity||4:||Propokertools.com|&chxs=0,000000|1,000000&chxtc=0,-400|1,-600&chf=bg,s,DDFFDD&chco=D13621)

kk74r vs top 15% which isn't really his 3b range but it'll be close. Think peeling vs non pot 3b is ok.


http://propokertools.com/simulations/graph?g=oh&h1=7s8c9cth&h2=20%25&h3=25%25&h4=35%25&s=generic

Live 5/5

1) I'm utg playing 500 with 8s 7c 6h 5c limp 5, utg 20, utg1 75, folds to me I call, utg calls.

5d 4d 3d we are first to act. Plan? Pot is 225 we have 430ish. Is pre ok?

2) Lots of limps for €5 I'm in mp with Ks Qc 8c 8h limp, few more limps, sb makes it 25, we go 5 ways.

Kc Tc 5c checks to me I bet 100, sb minraises to 200 with 300 back. He is 60/70. Wwyd?

id c/f hand 2 multiway and the same with hand 1, hand 2 seems wp pre, hand 1 ive no idea unfortunately :/

Kq88 really strong enough given action?

When everyone flicks in a fiver then someone makes it 25 and every flicks that in too, you sorta gotta come along for the ride surely?

I wouldnt limp with it but am not too savvy with Omaha either

hand1 open fold

hand2 wwyd? wish I'd remembered that in multiway pots you want to get involved with hands that draw to the nuts or hit the top end of combi-draws.  As played fold, you are just hoping he has the bare ace (if you are in a game where ppl min-raise multiway with the bare ace or the 3rd nut flush, I can assure you you will make piles of money nut peddling, so just play hands that will draw to the nuts)

i'd likely be folding both pre 6max<

hand 2, villain likely has AA and can be bluffing the blocker the times he has it? c/f it though 5 way

why is he "likely" it seems more "likely" to me that he has axcc

he's 60/70 in the sb and wants to raise into atleast 5 other players. obvs it is very likely he has AAxxcc and Axcc aswell but when he has the naked ace he would be inclined to bluff it when he sees this flop as villain should think hero will be bet folding

i'd just bin it pre tbh

Sounds like I need to tighten up pre. The thing is, I already am by far the tightest player at the table! Feel like my vpip is <10% even with playing these types of hands!

Obviously I have no idea about where this hand fits into the range, maybe I've just been really card dead. What sort of vpip should you be having in 9 handed full ring? I know you have to be really tight and just nut peddle basically.

I did a big hero call and a big bluff last night that I was quite happy with. I'll share both with you when I get a second to post and hope my thought processes don't get shot down in flames!

People defend too wide multiway in PLO and not enough heads up. I watched a video recently where Galfond talks about this and I feel it applies pretty well to this hand. (the KQ88)

Multiway the KQ part of our hand gets dominated usually, we flop only gutters and open enders rather than wraps which are usually draws we can't continue with. We can't really call happily when the flop comes two low clubs etc. We get oversetted more often than we set over set someone.

Basically just doesn't play very well. 88910 is far better

I'm very unqualified to recommend as I play very little, but I found Limon from 2+2 in this podcast http://pokercast.twoplustwo.com/pokercast.php?pokercast=331 quite interesting on some PLO concepts specific to live cash games. He's a long standing PLO cash player in LA cardrooms and if nothing else entertaining - worth a listen on the way to the casino I think.

What does dominated mean in the context of PLO? I know what it means in Hold'em. Do you mean that with your KQ, someone is bound to have AQxx and someone else is bound to have AKxx so you are struggling?

yeah same thing

So the two hands I mentioned earlier.

Hand 1 Kc Th 9c 8d, another multiway limped pot with LP raise to 25 called by 4 people. I am MP. My table image was extremely tight, I'd played almost no hands for about 2 hours.

9h 9d Qs, EP checks, I checked, three players behind checks. I thought if I donk bet here, it would be so obvious what I had given I had been so tight. Maybe that's not a good enough reason, as my hand is still so vulnerable? But is it even strong enough to bet?

Aspades Checks round to button who now bets 105 into 130. Fold, I call, everyone else folds. Should've bet here again? Again, unsure if my hand strong enough, 5 ways.

Ahrt I check, he bets 300. He's Norwegian, just moved to Barcelona to play these games for a living I overheard.

What's he representing here? A9 bets the flop most of the time last to act no? as does QQ? He wasn't the PFR so didn't think he had AAxx on the button. Does a bare Axxx bet the turn, and does it bomb the river like this? I didn't think so, so called. Thoughts?

Hand 2

Another hour or two passes by without me playing a hand, and the game is now 5/10. I'm shortstacking with about 700.

There is a limp and an open to 40 from MP2, and I am CO or HJ with Ts 9h 8s 7d and decided to 3bet to 140.  I had barely played a hand all night let alone 3bet so I thought everyone will put me on AAxx. My hand is really sexy anyway, obviously I'm not expecting to take it down pre, but I thought postflop if we are HU I will be able to bet most boards and likely to take it down. I wouldn't be betting a board like KQ9, but would be betting most boards. Everyone folds bar the original raiser who calls.

Kd 3d 2h He checks, I bet 150, with 420 back. He calls.

8s He checks, I jam 420. Now I have picked up a pair (especially this pair which doesn't add any draws) I felt this was a mandatory jam, he would fold a hand like KQJT and also have to fold a FD or SD. Thoughts?

Hello Alex!!

In your initial hands, hand #1 KK74r I would open the CO, as you did, I'd fold to any proper 3bet from the btn but as he's raised 3euro's I'd call, our hand is very bad ofc but for 3 more we should see if we can hit a king.

Otf 259r I would c/f we have no relevant blockers aside from a 7, we dont have the Ks so only 1 good turn card for us and if he has absolutely nothing here he'll still prolly have enough to turn a little equity and bet the turn again (forcing us to fold) I realise he#s bet quite small but we really can't do anything with this hand, OOP.

Having called the flop, which I wouldn't have done, I would prolly lead the turn now, as that's the 2nd best card in the deck for us and we block/rep a straight very well imo.

On the river yes I'd check - you could strongly consider a value bet since the flops FD has bricked, but i think youll most likely value cut yourself vs AA and really QQ or JJ is the only hand we'll ever get called by. You prolly win now, but yeh fold the flop 100%.

in the second of your original hands the KK92r in the SB i'd fold irrespective of the opener or the BB, this is a terrible hand, truly very poor, if there was another caller I'd flick it in as you'll be reasonably likely to go 4 way then.

The first live 5/5 hand - 5678 you limped preflop with this? Not so sure I'm a fan can't see any real reason not to open, flop you have to c/f you have no blockers and >5% equity vs any hand for value. There is a chance that it checks through to showdown in which case you'll v likely win. One huge factor to live PLO games is staying well clear of marginal hands in multi-way pots.

I agree to folding pre-flop with the KQ88, although I think throwing a 5 in is not too bad but technically folding best for sure, I would not bet this flop I'd c/call and then prolly c/f to the next bullet. As played I'd fold now fopr sure - yeh there is a chance he's bluffing but a lot of the time he won't be so you must give him the pot, unless you have some sort of ninja read?

KT98 hand where we flop three nines, I would prefer to bet the flop in a live game, people are generally weaker and call a bit overly wide here, KK, AQ etc and ofc worse nines are possible, if you get c/r OTF i'd fold as stnd without a read. The one good thing about checking though is that all your FH cards make straights so there is some value there. As played I would call the turn, and fold the river - is ost likely hand that would stab the turn and bluff the river is a lone Ace, which you now lose to, I don't think he would bluff an Ace on this river and I think it's very likely he has AQ, or maybe AA. KQJ* with spades is prolly his most likely bluffing hand by the river but I dunno why he would not bluff the flop with a Q, but the turn, where he's now quite likely to be called. Defo fold.

789T hand, I like it. WP. He will prolly not fold a K but I dont think he has a K as he'd be likely to just go AI otf with his K, he might fold though, and if he does call you can still have a chance to win as K3/K2/K8 all unlikely, if he had a weakish flop draw then yes he'd prolly fold now.

"danger awareness" as I like to consider it in PLO is very important, especially in live games, boards chance all the time, you're often handcuffed by your hand and very medicocre players can put you in horrible situations, if you allow them to.

Bad unsuited cards, playing too splashy preflop, being OOP and lose flop calls are usually where the danger begins. So be on guard.

what do you think your range looks like in hand 1 on the river? is this the very worst hand in your range? both perceived and actual?

maybe he thinks I can have any combo of wraps+fds? Probs not tho, but even if it was the worst hand in my range, i'd reasonably happy be making an exploitative adjustment - that'll he thinks he can get me to fold 9x here.

Obviously not happy with this hand from a GTO perspective, but the same can be said for 99% of my lifetime hands in live poker...

Thanks Dave, taken all those comments on board.

About the 99QAA board, why would he feel the need to bluff the lone Ace on the river? And if he was betting it for value, does he expect me to call (he bet big) with worse? My assumption was that he wouldn't bet Axxx in this spot, either as a bluff or for value, so discounted it heavily. Was that foolish?

Sorry I think i wasn't very clear;

I meant on the turn the most likely hand to bet, then bluff river would a lone ACE - assuming ofc that the river isn't an ACE, when he rivers trips and now beats all 9's he wont bluff, he also won't value bet a non-full house OTR, at lest I would think VB AK would prolly be pretty bad.

I just can't imagine why he would be bluffing this turn and river with this action. Also I think he would often stab the turn with AQ. He might have QQ but I think bombing the river with QQ is pretty poor and A9 is ofc very possible although I'd have thought he'd have bet the flop with A9. AA is also obviously also possible but the big river bet is a bit silly with AAAA given he's just praying you have QQ.

SO i think your assumptions are correct, he wouldn't bet worse than A9 for value this big, he wouldn't bluff with a better hand but IDK how he could be bluffing. I'd fold Q9 and actually would be pretty tempted to fold A9 here, I think he just has AQ all the time tbh...

@Pleno I think your hand looks like Q9 at best on the river in that hand, you would raise the turn with QQ and I'd expect a turn lead with A9. Looks pretty much like what it is tbh.

8765 seems to me to be one of the worst types of hands to limp and try to take multiway. I'd much rather limp a hand like trashy AA/KK where if you flop a set even multiway it'll probably be top set and you'll be able to get it in with much better equity than with a hand like 5678. Even if you flop the nut straigt with extensions you're not loving life multiway on boards with a flush draw. Often of course you'll be flopping non-nut straights and its just going to get really messy imo. I'd open on most tables but fold in a splashy live game where you're just going to get into a ton of trouble. Open folding is never going to be a huge leak here imo.

As played I would fold to the 75, its just going to get repotted by UTG1 and jammed by UTG2 too often and you'll end up having to call off the rest with 8 high which all feels pretty silly when it started with a limp. As played I can't see anything other than c/folding being remotely good but maybe people bluff and value bet thinly in these spots more than I think they do.

Hand 2 I think pre is ok, obv plenty of reasons to fold and I'd fold KQ77 but with 88 against a ton of limpers where they can have the smaller pairs too I think its enough to make it a call pre getting a big price. As played I would just call, his hand looks way more like a set/2pr raising to see where he's at. Older gentleman with a flopped nut flush in a multi way limped pot is going to be scared enough of the board pairs to just jam it in more often than not I think.

Edit: didn't see the raise pre from SB, feels like the kind of game where your opponents are going to continue with 100% of their limping range when it gets raised in this spot so you probably should flick in? Not loving it though, definitely more convinced that its an open fold pre now.

Haven't looked at the last two but will do, I've started learning PLO recently too so will def contribute some hands, gl

Hope people don't mind me posting this here. Also learning PLO and looking to improve. Here's a hand from recent session, no reads or data on villain.

PokerStars Zoom Hand #122695320524:  Omaha Pot Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2014/10/06 15:30:16 ET
Table 'Thyestes' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: hutch_hammer ($116.67 in chips)
Seat 2: AdenerS ($15.33 in chips)
Seat 3: DuCkTiltpy ($16.42 in chips)
Seat 4: Megafran ($37.46 in chips)
Seat 5: Procyon10 ($28.64 in chips)
Seat 6: BearFromLT ($25.77 in chips)
AdenerS: posts small blind $0.10
DuCkTiltpy: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hutch_hammer [td Jc Kd 9s]
Megafran: folds
Procyon10: raises $0.60 to $0.85
BearFromLT: folds
hutch_hammer: calls $0.85
AdenerS: folds
DuCkTiltpy: folds
*** FLOP *** [8c 7h 5d]
Procyon10: bets $1.25
hutch_hammer: raises $1.75 to $3
Procyon10: calls $1.75
*** TURN *** [8c 7h 5d] [Jd]
Procyon10: checks
hutch_hammer: bets $4.25
Procyon10: calls $4.25
*** RIVER *** [8c 7h 5d Jd] [5h]
Procyon10: bets $10

Preflop, I just peeled pre with a good hand in position. I do sometimes 3 bet these type hands but decided to flat.

Flop raise as I don't think he has too many 69s in his range and I want to take control of the pot. Also wanted to build the pot as there are plenty good cards for me on the turn.

Turn gin card and I'm thinking how to get value. Thoughts on bet size here? In hindsight I think it's a little small.

I guess he can't lead too often here with worse than my hand and it's a sigh fold?

Appreciate some thoughts, my thinking is not always clear on these hands and would appreciate some more experienced players opinions.

there's $8 in there on the turn right?

Like the flop raise we have a 96 blocker, were IP, we have a hand that can very easily stand a flop 3bet so it's a great spot for a raise.

Turn defo go bigger, i'd be going $6.50~ make him pay - this in PLO people can have all types of stuff not like NL where they just have one thing :D

River, certainly a fold - his hand looks perfectly like a full house, if he's bluffing (idk what with...) fair play give the man his pot (his range = stronger than urs).

hope you folded, very nice hand if you did - just bet bigger on the turn.

Yeah, I folded. Thanks for the advice, shows my instincts are getting better as I thought my turn bet was too small.

Yeh, this is a thread for all :)

I've been doing the lot lately, both live and online sigh. Couple from today's disaster session. Thoughts on all streets please,  especially the river. Villain is a reg, plays well from what I can tell. Looks like a missed draw or the remain two AAxx to me. This is €0.50/1 stakes, in case that's relevant.

Hand 1

SB: 229.17 BB (VPIP: 21.76, PFR: 14.71, 3Bet Preflop: 5.13, Hands: 175)
BB: 244.63 BB (VPIP: 42.91, PFR: 28.84, 3Bet Preflop: 14.00, Hands: 857)
UTG: 108.38 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 12.96, 3Bet Preflop: 2.50, Hands: 109)
CO: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 27.96, PFR: 18.64, 3Bet Preflop: 9.17, Hands: 285)
Hero (BTN): 121.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7s Kh Aspades 8h
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB raises to 8 BB, Hero calls 5.5 BB

Flop : (16.5 BB, 2 players) 4c Kc 9d
BB bets 11 BB, Hero calls 11 BB

Turn : (38.5 BB, 2 players) 7h
BB checks, Hero bets 27 BB, BB calls 27 BB

River : (92.5 BB, 2 players) Ahrt
BB bets 80 BB and is allin, Hero ?

Hand 2

Given pre and my hand, I heavily discounted sets from villains range, and found 42xx unlikely. Thoughts?

BB: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 38.46, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
Hero (CO): 168.88 BB
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 36.90, PFR: 27.38, 3Bet Preflop: 19.44, Hands: 85)
SB: 144.58 BB (VPIP: 32.69, PFR: 19.23, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 52)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Tc 5c 3d Ac
Hero raises to 3.5 BB, BTN calls 3.5 BB, fold, BB calls 2.5 BB

Flop : (11 BB, 3 players) 3s Ahrt 5s
BB checks, Hero bets 8 BB, BTN raises to 25.18 BB, fold, Hero calls 17.18 BB

Turn : (61.36 BB, 2 players) Kc
Hero checks, BTN bets 59.86 BB, Hero  ? (playing ~70)

hand 1 id fold the flop and call the river, feel like its hard to improve down the streets and vs his range we do poorly. would be confused but would call the river

hand 2 it may be bad?? but id fold pre. if i get to the turn id fold too

Hutch I'd go a bit bigger on the flop too but wp.

Hand one from alex seems standard, we don't do great vs his range, but we can happily fold on clubs/t/j/q and don't get barreled too often by too many scrappy hands. I think we realise enough equity when he cbets to this size. I also don't think people fire the turn too light so if its a real brick and he goes big then I'm happy folding.

Hand two really sucks, really really sucks. I'd decide on the dynamic, vs some guys I play with I'd be happy folding, some I'd be happy getting it in against. His big aces with fds have really improved ofc but some guys might flat this and raise smaller sd type of things because they have "blockers" 4467 etc. Button is somewhat weighted away from some big AKxx hands, as he'd likely 3b them pre. Maybe same hand? AK5? Pretty much talked myself into a fold despite all this.

Calling river hand 1 Adam?

Yeh, just what's he supposed to have, we chop a bunch though.

hand 1 i'd play the same yeh, would call the river.

hand 2 fold now, defo. I kinda wanna fold the flop actually, I think thats one of those "look into a man's avatar" kinda spots, depeneds who it is.

Thanks chaps. Always great to read your posts.

Fwiw, hand 1 I called river and he had bare AAxx. Hand 2 we got it in and he had A5xx with the fd, ran twice and he made a flush on both doh!

A spot came up last night which made me think of this thread - and again made me question why I'm playing PLO at this level :D

We're 4 handed, round of each, £2/5.

Villian 1 (SB) is chinese, just come over with a £11k roulette ticket and said he won back yesterdays losses etc. Saw him playing a big PLO game last night and darting between that and the wheel...

Villain 2 (BB) is a high stakes reg, plays very big live PLO games, 100/200, 200/400 etc.

I'm UTG playing £2k with  6d 7c 8s 9s raise to £20.

Villain 1 in SB playing £1.1k 3bets to £55.

Villain 2 in BB playing £2k 4bets to £185.

I call. Think this has to be fine?

SB repot, BB repot allin.

My thoughts were that the BB reg almost certainly had AAxx and the SB most likely had a high rundown, or a KKQJ sort of hand. He hadn't been playing aggro pre before this, so don't think he's just whaling about with anything.

So I felt we'd have pretty close to the right odds to call off here, but wasn't sure.

Thoughts?

Got to be enough of a chance that the SB has got 89TJ or similar that this is a fold?

He must be savvy enough to realise the BB has very likely got AAxx to not be shoving his money in with kings hasn't he?

+1

I would fold this, even tho you're deep, you almost def won't dominate anything when you hit on the flop.  And you can be dominated.

You're prob ok equity wise with the allin but do you need the variance?

how deep are these two? Thats pretty relevant - if they are like £5k+ then you get way better price as chances of AA vs AA goes up significantly - if they are playing £2/3k then by the sounds of the types of players they might be gambling a bit, which is not great for you as you get dominated and blocked way more often.

Is the HS player Phil Ward by any chance?

pretty rare people 5 or 6bet or w/e all-in without AA in live games in all honesty.

I'm putting the money in and fairly happy about it but it's obv high variance.

That's PLO tho <3

its clear they have AA yes but how are they really 6b potting all aces? There must me imo, more better AA in their range meaning our 89 part of the hand is very rarely going to be flopping both of them, even anyone dead anytime soon lol so I feel like going 3 way vs typical hands after this action with a more 7342ds or A652ds cus well degen gonna degen I guess.

A652 ds defo not what you want in this spot

High variance init! We can still catch some flops lol

 Ad Td Aspades Qh 35.37%.                                              43.67%
 Jd 9s Qs Tc 29.12%.                                              23.76%
 Ac 2c 5h 6h 35.49%    6d 7h 8c 9c   35.56%

We don't want an Ace because then we can't be facing AAxx and AAyy.

And we'd quite like that to happen.

What's the odds on that?

It is handy there is only one double suited hand there, the hearts are good for the flush and the others all cannibalise each others outs.  Change ATQT to A2QA and QJT9 to 9876ds then you'll get a different picture of how well A256 plays. 

if your putting a player on aces, you definitely do not want to contain an ace in your hand. You want all your cards in your hand to be live.

It is going to be pretty hard to compute, but where you two oppos get a gazillion BBs in pre and you are sat there with 9876 you are going to see AA vs AA way more often than some spurious calculation is going to show. 

I really wouldn't be surprised if it was as high as 50/50.  I don't play omaha much, but in plo8 and this happens early on between two regs you know what is coming.   

Romanian guy Dave, not called Paul no.

3way Equity:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation (http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?g=oh&h1=9s8s7c6d&h2=asackcqd&h3=khqsjhts&s=generic)
658,008 trials (Exhaustive)
9s8s7c6d 29.50%
asackcqd 38.49%
khqsjhts 32.01%

side pot equity:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation (http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?g=oh&h1=9s8s7c6d&h2=asackcqd&s=generic)
1,086,008 trials (Exhaustive)
9s8s7c6d 40.35%
asackcqd 59.65%


Total pot = £5100
Main pot = £3300
Side pot = £1800

0.295*(3300) + 0.4035*(1800) = £1699.8

Block so much of their value range in both hands. Really like the way you played both, unlucky man

Forgot to type that this was what I felt would be my personal worse case scenario.

Once we start considering the fact that player 1 has a >0% of holding spanners and our 3way equity starts edging closer to 35% it becomes marginally profitable vs a fold

you can do as many equity calculations as you want here you'll never get the answers

It's close either way, right? So, if you want to gamble then go for it; if you don't then don't. Simples :)

Thanks for that Pinchop- so £1700 is my EV in the coup if I call and are vs those hands?

So with £185 invested it's £1815 more to call, that means it's a fold?

Edit: just seen recent posts.

Worst case scenario is surely being crushed by sb 789T tho?

Shit yeah that's really not good  :D

If we look at one of the worst case scenario's

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation (http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?g=oh&h1=9s8s7c6d&h2=tc9c8h7h&h3=asksadqd&s=generic)
658,008 trials (Exhaustive)
9s8s7c6d 13.59%
tc9c8h7h 30.84%
asksadqd 55.57%

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation (http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?g=oh&h1=9s8s7c6d&h2=asksadqd&s=generic)
1,086,008 trials (Exhaustive)
9s8s7c6d 34.62%
asksadqd 65.38%

0.1359*3300 + 0.3462*1800 = £1071  :(



Hmm I respect you shit loads Dave but I'm not sure I can entire agree with that statement.

If we can assume both have AAxx which I think is probably one of the better situations we can get in (which is going to happen a LOT vs live players when you get 400bb in pre) then we get the follwing result:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation (http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?g=oh&h1=9s8s7c6d&h2=ac9cAh7h&h3=asksadqh&s=generic)
658,008 trials (Exhaustive)
9s8s7c6d 28.45%
ac9cAh7h 35.05%
asksadqh 36.50%

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation (http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?g=oh&h1=9s8s7c6d&h2=asksadqh&s=generic)
1,086,008 trials (Exhaustive)
9s8s7c6d 37.40%
asksadqh 62.60%

0.2845*3300+0.374*1800 = £1612


But, I do not believe we're talking about particularly traditional live players here. One is going to know his three way equities very very well, and one more than likely really really isn't :p and so I think the chances of one of them getting it in with non AAxx hands is def >0%

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation (http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?g=oh&h1=9s8s7c6d&h2=khkd5c6h&h3=asksadqh&s=generic)
658,008 trials (Exhaustive)
9s8s7c6d 29.41%
khkd5c6h 22.70%
asksadqh 47.89%

0.2941*3300+0.374*1800 = £1643

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation (http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?g=oh&h1=9s8s7c6d&h2=9htcjhqd&h3=asksadqh&s=generic)
658,008 trials (Exhaustive)
9s8s7c6d 26.07%
9htcjhqd 29.86%
asksadqh 44.06%

0.26*3300+0.374*1800 = £1531

What I'm saying is that I'm really struggling to find ranges we get it in vs that'll be profitable scenario's, but there's a shit ton of ranges we get it in vs which are really not profitable at all.

What I meant was you'll never be able to equate for the random factor here especially with practicalily zero information.

Personalily I think you should fold, not because your EV is X but because taking this super high variance total guesswork spots is defo not how money is made in live cash games.

The amount of times iv been here and gone for it and seen someone randomly have KJ87 single or something I just don't think you need this hand in your life...

Obviously if you fancy gambling which is completely fine then this is a pretty fun spot, and perhaps good for image too...

I actually think as well you don't see these awesome run downs in people's hands all that often either which is defo a + point for getting it in.

Dave, is the calling the £185 4bet ok? I thought the small sizing of the sb initial 3bet (20-55) meant he wasn't strong and because of how he'd played previously, he wouldn't be repotting all that often and this was more of a pot builder bet. That reasonable?

The thing that strikes me about this hand is if we call £1,800 or whatever pre, we really are gambling, & hoping for a good run out.

Our position is now irrelevant, there is no more poker to be played.

To me, I want to (try to) exert some skill into how I play a hand, & I need to take sensibly priced flops to do that.

At £185, given the stacks, yeah, I'm in. At anything much above that, no ta.

I called thinking that we could probably run it twice so it wasn't massively high variance spot. Was up vs AAT8s and KQJ9s. Made the nuts on the first board but lost the second. That'll do...

Can't possibly see what is going to pay you this deep if you hit the flop.  Maybe you get it in vs a combi-draw but its hardly easy money.

It seems very easy to me to create match up where it is profitable. Here's one I randomly made up:

9s 8s 6d 7c = 39.419%

Ahrt Kh Ad Qd = 33.957%

Aspades Td Ac Jc = 26.624%

You can make up 100 sims like this where you are going to be making money getting it in, and you could make up another 100 sims where you are going to be losing money getting it in. For that matter you could make up 100 sims where it is neutral. There is no way to know for sure whether it is a profitable get in, or a losing get in. But either way it is going to be very close, so it does not really matter. It feels like it matters of course, because it is going to be a huge pot and at the end of it you will either be stuck chunks or ahead chunks. But really it does not matter much at all.

That's why my advice is to simply do whatever you WANT to do. Just assume both folding and getting it in have EV = 0. So the question is, do you fancy taking a big neutral-EV gamble right at this moment or not?

My personal philosophy is to usually avoid neutral EV high variance spots. Cos I am sensible and boring and cautious. I have experienced just how extreme variance can be, and have no wish to deliberately seek to increase it in spots where I am not making money by doing so. On the other hand, it can be fun to have a big gamble from time to time. And last time I checked gambling is allowed in casinos!

BTW, if I ran like Alex rather than like me then I would probably be more inclined to gamble in these neutral-EV spots... #nicemoan

 9s 8s 7c 6d 28.45%
 Ac 9c Ahrt 7h 35.05%
 Aspades Ks Ad Qh 36.50%

Ridiculous (in a fascinating way) how the equities differ. Surprised me how much having suit outs changes the equity that much. Thank you :)

Yeah live suits are worth around 5% in equity. In a HU pot 5% is a nice little boost. But the more multiway the pot becomes the more important live suits are. This is because 5% is not that much in a HU pot when 'par equity' is 50%. But in, say, a 5-way pot where par equity is 20%, that 5% increase is HUGE.

yeh yeh for defo, you could even call one more raise speshly if you're closing the action.

My instinct tells me that if we could genuinely run 90%+ accurate hand vs range vs range sim it would show this hand to be a small losing all-in.

If you somehow had a read that both players were very likely to have AA** then defo go with it and be loving it.

It is though, as I said totally impossible to produce some calcs here that you can trust have even 70% accuracy so with or without pro poker tools this spot is complete guesswork and massively high variance - I would avoid and as most people are aware I quite enjoy a bit of variance :)

how much does it change your decision if you're absolutely sure you can run it two or three times, or are absolutely sure you can only run it once?

Running it more than once is all about how much variance you want. This was a kinda borderline spot in my head, and a decent sized pot so in truth I would have folded if I knew that it was only gonna be ran once. Maybe that's fishy, but I think it's OK to accept a bit of variance (running it twice odds of losing both will be around 40-45%) but not the whole lot (65-70% to lose both).

think I agree. if this is likely to be a small loser long term then I'd defo want to run it more than once and pay a little bit of EV tax for image. Getting it in here has got to be good for the game, I think, but I defo want to run it more than once.

What is "good for the game?" If you mean it'll be good for your image that you punted preflop with 6789single then I can't argue that it certainly makes you a appear loser by getting it in here than not, but at the end of the day it's totally unquantifiable and taking -EV spots to acquire unquantifiable edges is a big mistake.  If you have been very tight in this game and want to appear loose then 1 solitary hand when you punt 2k off with a rundown prolly won't hold in anyone's memory for long at all.

I think in live cash games people to seem to think you can play a certain style for 8 hours, then do one thing that is drastically out of character for that style, and all of sudden your image is changed - I think that would require people to be both really rather gullible and also paying attention, and most people in live cash games are neither.