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Community Forums => The Lounge => Topic started by: tikay on January 28, 2015, 10:50:24 AM



Title: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: tikay on January 28, 2015, 10:50:24 AM


Paul Bailey sold his teleconferencing business for £28 milly, & now he lives the dream.

He already owned a £860,000 McLaren P1.

Yesterday, he went & collected his brand new £780,000 Porsche 918.

And then, straight on to Nottingham, to collect his "LeFerrari" Ferrari, which cost £1.2 milly.

(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/01/27/251CAEA900000578-2928127-_Holy_Trinity_Paul_Bailey_drives_his_white_Porsche_918_left_whil-m-26_1422361902767.jpg)


(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/01/27/251CAF2800000578-2928127-Cruising_Mr_Bailey_drove_his_866_000_McLaren_supercar_left_from_-m-28_1422361942252.jpg)


(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/01/27/251D283800000578-2928127-image-a-34_1422362124255.jpg)

(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/01/27/251CAEF900000578-2928127-Big_reveal_Mr_and_Mrs_Bailey_take_the_wraps_of_their_new_La_Ferr-m-36_1422362148346.jpg)

(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/01/27/251CAF3C00000578-2928127-Personalised_The_licence_plate_on_Mr_Bailey_s_McLaren_s_P1_shows-m-39_1422362218611.jpg)

(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/01/27/251CAF1900000578-2928127-image-a-24_1422361780195.jpg)


(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/01/27/251CB3C800000578-2928127-image-m-20_1422361718387.jpg)


Seems he gave his wife a lovely pearl necklace, too, though we don't know what that cost him.


(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/01/27/251CAF2300000578-2928127-image-a-5_1422360774891.jpg)


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: tikay on January 28, 2015, 10:53:12 AM


Anyone want to guess how Camel will describe Mr Bailey?


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: buzzharvey22 on January 28, 2015, 10:53:57 AM
Dont think I could fit in any of those cars so jokes on him really.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: arbboy on January 28, 2015, 11:10:03 AM
Why are these types always like 5'4'' tall?  Looks like small man snydrome to me.

Looking at the picture of him collecting the keys he is tiny compared to his missus and the car dealer guy.   He is going to burn through his loot pretty quick at this rate. £28m is hardly monster cash to be donking this type of cash on cars.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2928127/British-multi-millionaire-person-world-3million-Holy-Trinity-hypercars.html


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: tikay on January 28, 2015, 11:15:32 AM
Why are these types always like 5'4'' tall?  Looks like small man snydrome to me.

Looking at the picture of him collecting the keys he is tiny compared to his missus and the car dealer guy.   He is going to burn through his loot pretty quick at this rate. £28m is hardly monster cash to be donking this type of cash on cars.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2928127/British-multi-millionaire-person-world-3million-Holy-Trinity-hypercars.html

Typo, or deliberate?

Be great if it were the latter.

Apparently, he has a fleet of 30 so-called "Supercars". Even if we value the lot at a conservative £10 milly, that's still a big lump out of £28 milion. Maybe he has made some good investments, & spun it up.

Bet the numberplates alone cost half a mill in total.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: arbboy on January 28, 2015, 11:23:18 AM
Why are these types always like 5'4'' tall?  Looks like small man snydrome to me.

Looking at the picture of him collecting the keys he is tiny compared to his missus and the car dealer guy.   He is going to burn through his loot pretty quick at this rate. £28m is hardly monster cash to be donking this type of cash on cars.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2928127/British-multi-millionaire-person-world-3million-Holy-Trinity-hypercars.html

Typo, or deliberate?

Be great if it were the latter.

Apparently, he has a fleet of 30 so-called "Supercars". Even if we value the lot at a conservative £10 milly, that's still a big lump out of £28 milion. Maybe he has made some good investments, & spun it up.

Bet the numberplates alone cost half a mill in total.

You never seem to find these guys are like 6'2'' rugby types who have massive car fetishes to hide the fact they are tiny.  Of course it is just my opinion.  Maybe they just love cars and it is nothing to do with massaging their egos.  Good luck to him if that is what he enjoys in life i have no problem at all.  Cars do nothing for me at all.  I just find it funny how these type of guys always seem to look the same.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: Woodsey on January 28, 2015, 11:25:06 AM
Would like the cash, not arsed about the cars too much as I'm not really a car person.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: Marky147 on January 28, 2015, 11:26:25 AM
I wouldn't mind being a few quid behind him, but not so jealous of the motors...

Give me an Audi S8 any day of the week.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: lucky_scrote on January 28, 2015, 11:29:04 AM
If I had that sort of money I'd spend it on exactly what I wanted to, and wouldn't care what people thought.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pByXoSzP5pU/T_nUOuJ8YSI/AAAAAAAADkU/bDgnl5qNzag/s1600/haters-gonna-hate-futurama.gif)


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: tikay on January 28, 2015, 11:32:28 AM
If I had that sort of money I'd spend it on exactly what I wanted to, and wouldn't care what people thought.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pByXoSzP5pU/T_nUOuJ8YSI/AAAAAAAADkU/bDgnl5qNzag/s1600/haters-gonna-hate-futurama.gif)

Well you made a start last night, I hear......


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: Royal Flush on January 28, 2015, 11:45:33 AM

Seems he gave his wife a lovely pearl necklace, too, though we don't know what that cost him.

 :o


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: RED-DOG on January 28, 2015, 12:01:35 PM
Why are these types always like 5'4'' tall?  Looks like small man snydrome to me.

Looking at the picture of him collecting the keys he is tiny compared to his missus and the car dealer guy.   He is going to burn through his loot pretty quick at this rate. £28m is hardly monster cash to be donking this type of cash on cars.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2928127/British-multi-millionaire-person-world-3million-Holy-Trinity-hypercars.html

Typo, or deliberate?

Be great if it were the latter.

Apparently, he has a fleet of 30 so-called "Supercars". Even if we value the lot at a conservative £10 milly, that's still a big lump out of £28 milion. Maybe he has made some good investments, & spun it up.

Bet the numberplates alone cost half a mill in total.

You never seem to find these guys are like 6'2'' rugby types who have massive car fetishes to hide the fact they are tiny.  Of course it is just my opinion.  Maybe they just love cars and it is nothing to do with massaging their egos.  Good luck to him if that is what he enjoys in life i have no problem at all.  Cars do nothing for me at all.  I just find it funny how these type of guys always seem to look the same.


Have you ever noticed how it's always bigger guys that make sweeping generalisations about small men who have done well for themselves having 'small man' syndrome?

You never seem to find these guys are like, 5'2".


I have no problem at all. I just find it funny how these type of guys always seem to look the same.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: arbboy on January 28, 2015, 12:06:02 PM
Why are these types always like 5'4'' tall?  Looks like small man snydrome to me.

Looking at the picture of him collecting the keys he is tiny compared to his missus and the car dealer guy.   He is going to burn through his loot pretty quick at this rate. £28m is hardly monster cash to be donking this type of cash on cars.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2928127/British-multi-millionaire-person-world-3million-Holy-Trinity-hypercars.html

Typo, or deliberate?

Be great if it were the latter.

Apparently, he has a fleet of 30 so-called "Supercars". Even if we value the lot at a conservative £10 milly, that's still a big lump out of £28 milion. Maybe he has made some good investments, & spun it up.

Bet the numberplates alone cost half a mill in total.

You never seem to find these guys are like 6'2'' rugby types who have massive car fetishes to hide the fact they are tiny.  Of course it is just my opinion.  Maybe they just love cars and it is nothing to do with massaging their egos.  Good luck to him if that is what he enjoys in life i have no problem at all.  Cars do nothing for me at all.  I just find it funny how these type of guys always seem to look the same.


Have you ever noticed how it's always bigger guys that make sweeping generalisations about small men who have done well for themselves having 'small man' syndrome?

You never seem to find these guys are like, 5'2".


I have no problem at all. I just find it funny how these type of guys always seem to look the same.


Come on Tom it was made with particular reference to exotic car purchases not in general with having done well for themselves.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: RED-DOG on January 28, 2015, 12:07:18 PM
Why are these types always like 5'4'' tall?  Looks like small man snydrome to me.

Looking at the picture of him collecting the keys he is tiny compared to his missus and the car dealer guy.   He is going to burn through his loot pretty quick at this rate. £28m is hardly monster cash to be donking this type of cash on cars.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2928127/British-multi-millionaire-person-world-3million-Holy-Trinity-hypercars.html

Typo, or deliberate?

Be great if it were the latter.

Apparently, he has a fleet of 30 so-called "Supercars". Even if we value the lot at a conservative £10 milly, that's still a big lump out of £28 milion. Maybe he has made some good investments, & spun it up.

Bet the numberplates alone cost half a mill in total.

You never seem to find these guys are like 6'2'' rugby types who have massive car fetishes to hide the fact they are tiny.  Of course it is just my opinion.  Maybe they just love cars and it is nothing to do with massaging their egos.  Good luck to him if that is what he enjoys in life i have no problem at all.  Cars do nothing for me at all.  I just find it funny how these type of guys always seem to look the same.


Have you ever noticed how it's always bigger guys that make sweeping generalisations about small men who have done well for themselves having 'small man' syndrome?

You never seem to find these guys are like, 5'2".


I have no problem at all. I just find it funny how these type of guys always seem to look the same.


Come on Tom it was made with particular reference to exotic car purchases not in general with having done well for themselves.

I knew I should have put a smiley on it.  :)


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: david3103 on January 28, 2015, 12:35:53 PM

Seems he gave his wife a lovely pearl necklace, too, though we don't know what that cost him.

 :o

Not just me then


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: celtic on January 28, 2015, 12:41:24 PM
Sicilian is 5'2, and drives a Porsche.

Think that make arbboy right.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: EvilPie on January 28, 2015, 12:45:26 PM
I love a nice success story. Good for him I say.



Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: Graham C on January 28, 2015, 01:04:02 PM
I love a nice success story. Good for him I say.



This.  WAL.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: Oxford_HRV on January 28, 2015, 01:14:49 PM
Good for him buying the latest fastest hybrid supercars, unfortunately 99% of peoples driving ability does not increase with their bank roll, it's a clear show off and mostly completely irrelevant for him to own a car that drives with such ability! i doubt he would make a (8min) lap around the nurburgring in any of those. #trafficlightracingpro


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: DaveShoelace on January 28, 2015, 01:41:09 PM
Never been much of a car fan, but good luck to the fella.

Always wondered what cars very successful male porn stars drive, given the general consensus is that flash car = small winky. I drive a Fiesta, so I must be hung like a babies arm holding an apple.



Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: DaveShoelace on January 28, 2015, 01:43:25 PM
Oh to answer the subject line. I never get (or at least try not to) jealous when I see stuff like this. It always inspires me actually, especially when it's a self made man. I think most people are really ignorant of the hard work, stress and sacrifice that goes into getting this level of success, which is why they get jealous because they think there is a magic wand giving some people ferraris and other people (sigh) Fiestas.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: Doobs on January 28, 2015, 03:12:35 PM

Seems he gave his wife a lovely pearl necklace, too, though we don't know what that cost him.

 :o

Not just me then

You have his wife a lovely pearl necklace? :o


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: scotty77 on January 28, 2015, 05:11:45 PM
Nope.  Kudos to him.  Far better that he spends the money and it be redistributed thru the economy than it being in some investment fund IMO.






Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: cambridgealex on January 28, 2015, 05:56:41 PM
Nope.  Kudos to him.  Far better that he spends the money and it be redistributed thru the economy than it being in some investment fund IMO.






Playing cash at DTD sounds like a better idea of redistribution to me ;)


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: The Camel on January 28, 2015, 06:10:20 PM
Life isn't fair.

Who knows if this fella deserves his success, but I do know that a high % of people who are rich and successful have achieved it by sheer luck not by talent, skill or hard work.

I know some of the most successful gamblers in the UK but there is only person who if he gives me something he fancies I will back it blind without looking at the market myself.

And this guy who I rate the shrewdest gambler I know is pretty much completely flat broke.

People massively overrate talent and totally underrate variance IMO.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: nirvana on January 28, 2015, 06:27:21 PM
Why are these types always like 5'4'' tall?  Looks like small man snydrome to me.

Looking at the picture of him collecting the keys he is tiny compared to his missus and the car dealer guy.   He is going to burn through his loot pretty quick at this rate. £28m is hardly monster cash to be donking this type of cash on cars.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2928127/British-multi-millionaire-person-world-3million-Holy-Trinity-hypercars.html

I know a bit about the P1. Trades for £1.3m soifyou were one of the lucky 375 owners yr gonna make rather alot of monaaay


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: Simon Galloway on January 28, 2015, 06:29:07 PM
Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: redsimon on January 28, 2015, 06:31:13 PM
Life isn't fair.

Who knows if this fella deserves his success, but I do know that a high % of people who are rich and successful have achieved it by sheer luck not by talent, skill or hard work.

I know some of the most successful gamblers in the UK but there is only person who if he gives me something he fancies I will back it blind without looking at the market myself.

And this guy who I rate the shrewdest gambler I know is pretty much completely flat broke.

People massively overrate talent and totally underrate variance IMO.

Garry Bush?


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: The Camel on January 28, 2015, 06:32:54 PM
Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?

He lost 200% of his bankroll in the property crash.

Still paying it back.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: The Camel on January 28, 2015, 06:33:55 PM
Life isn't fair.

Who knows if this fella deserves his success, but I do know that a high % of people who are rich and successful have achieved it by sheer luck not by talent, skill or hard work.

I know some of the most successful gamblers in the UK but there is only person who if he gives me something he fancies I will back it blind without looking at the market myself.

And this guy who I rate the shrewdest gambler I know is pretty much completely flat broke.

People massively overrate talent and totally underrate variance IMO.

Garry Bush?

He's the hardest working gambler I know, but nowhere near the shrewdest.

Also nowhere near broke.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: arbboy on January 28, 2015, 06:34:29 PM
Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?

Not really.  You do if you want to make money gambling long term but you can be a really shrewd judge who is clueless bankroll management wise/variance wise and does his nuts chasing every day but if you use his information because he finds even money shots which are 5/1 every day then you will get very rich following him blind with correct bankroll management and understanding of variance.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: The Camel on January 28, 2015, 07:05:12 PM
Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?

Not really.  You do if you want to make money gambling long term but you can be a really shrewd judge who is clueless bankroll management wise/variance wise and does his nuts chasing every day but if you use his information because he finds even money shots which are 5/1 every day then you will get very rich following him blind with correct bankroll management and understanding of variance.

A wise man once said "it is better to be a good judge of judges than a good judge."


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: arbboy on January 28, 2015, 07:07:07 PM
Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?

Not really.  You do if you want to make money gambling long term but you can be a really shrewd judge who is clueless bankroll management wise/variance wise and does his nuts chasing every day but if you use his information because he finds even money shots which are 5/1 every day then you will get very rich following him blind with correct bankroll management and understanding of variance.

A wise man once said "it is better to be a good judge of judges than a good judge."

That is the truest saying in the game!  I know several successful pro gamblers who seriously couldn't price up a coinflip.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: Tal on January 28, 2015, 07:18:40 PM
Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?

Not really.  You do if you want to make money gambling long term but you can be a really shrewd judge who is clueless bankroll management wise/variance wise and does his nuts chasing every day but if you use his information because he finds even money shots which are 5/1 every day then you will get very rich following him blind with correct bankroll management and understanding of variance.

A wise man once said "it is better to be a good judge of judges than a good judge."

That is the truest saying in the game!  I know several successful pro gamblers who seriously couldn't price up a coinflip.

Bad analogy, sir. Reminded me of this piece of TfT Gold, two years ago...


Last 5 been heads. I'm lay some 21/20 heads. Just got a feeling


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: The Camel on January 28, 2015, 07:25:23 PM
Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?

Not really.  You do if you want to make money gambling long term but you can be a really shrewd judge who is clueless bankroll management wise/variance wise and does his nuts chasing every day but if you use his information because he finds even money shots which are 5/1 every day then you will get very rich following him blind with correct bankroll management and understanding of variance.

A wise man once said "it is better to be a good judge of judges than a good judge."

That is the truest saying in the game!  I know several successful pro gamblers who seriously couldn't price up a coinflip.

Bad analogy, sir. Reminded me of this piece of TfT Gold, two years ago...


Last 5 been heads. I'm lay some 21/20 heads. Just got a feeling

First time I turned up at the Aussie Millions I spotted a well known high stakes player in a mammoth cash game on my first venture into the cardroom.

"how are you doing?" I asked.

"Doing my cobblers"

"ah, sorry to hear that, still 2 weeks to get out of it"

"I want to get out of it now, what is your roll for the trip Keith?"

"About 15k English"

"That's a conincidence, it's what I'm losing in this session. I'll tell you what, I'll lay you 5/4 red or black on the next flop, but you must bet the whole lot".

I would still have had enough money to pay my hotel and exes, but would have faced 2 weeks with no poker (exclude the fact I could have borrowed).

In my spot do you gamble or turn him down?


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: edgascoigne on January 28, 2015, 07:40:01 PM
Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?

Not really.  You do if you want to make money gambling long term but you can be a really shrewd judge who is clueless bankroll management wise/variance wise and does his nuts chasing every day but if you use his information because he finds even money shots which are 5/1 every day then you will get very rich following him blind with correct bankroll management and understanding of variance.

A wise man once said "it is better to be a good judge of judges than a good judge."

That is the truest saying in the game!  I know several successful pro gamblers who seriously couldn't price up a coinflip.

Bad analogy, sir. Reminded me of this piece of TfT Gold, two years ago...


Last 5 been heads. I'm lay some 21/20 heads. Just got a feeling

First time I turned up at the Aussie Millions I spotted a well known high stakes player in a mammoth cash game on my first venture into the cardroom.

"how are you doing?" I asked.

"Doing my cobblers"

"ah, sorry to hear that, still 2 weeks to get out of it"

"I want to get out of it now, what is your roll for the trip Keith?"

"About 15k English"

"That's a conincidence, it's what I'm losing in this session. I'll tell you what, I'll lay you 5/4 red or black on the next flop, but you must bet the whole lot".

I would still have had enough money to pay my hotel and exes, but would have faced 2 weeks with no poker (exclude the fact I could have borrowed).

In my spot do you gamble or turn him down?

Turn it down, Shirley?

Positive expectation of £1,875 - ie. 12.5% of the roll. Surely less than forecast ROI on the comps you're going to play? Especially if this is a few years back!

Possibility to borrow makes this pretty much an unsolvable, but in isolation I don't think this is close at all?


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: arbboy on January 28, 2015, 07:40:18 PM
Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?

Not really.  You do if you want to make money gambling long term but you can be a really shrewd judge who is clueless bankroll management wise/variance wise and does his nuts chasing every day but if you use his information because he finds even money shots which are 5/1 every day then you will get very rich following him blind with correct bankroll management and understanding of variance.

A wise man once said "it is better to be a good judge of judges than a good judge."

That is the truest saying in the game!  I know several successful pro gamblers who seriously couldn't price up a coinflip.

Bad analogy, sir. Reminded me of this piece of TfT Gold, two years ago...


Last 5 been heads. I'm lay some 21/20 heads. Just got a feeling

First time I turned up at the Aussie Millions I spotted a well known high stakes player in a mammoth cash game on my first venture into the cardroom.

"how are you doing?" I asked.

"Doing my cobblers"

"ah, sorry to hear that, still 2 weeks to get out of it"

"I want to get out of it now, what is your roll for the trip Keith?"

"About 15k English"

"That's a conincidence, it's what I'm losing in this session. I'll tell you what, I'll lay you 5/4 red or black on the next flop, but you must bet the whole lot".

I would still have had enough money to pay my hotel and exes, but would have faced 2 weeks with no poker (exclude the fact I could have borrowed).

In my spot do you gamble or turn him down?

No unless my total net worth is £400k+ then i might give him a spin.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: The Camel on January 28, 2015, 07:51:51 PM
Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?

Not really.  You do if you want to make money gambling long term but you can be a really shrewd judge who is clueless bankroll management wise/variance wise and does his nuts chasing every day but if you use his information because he finds even money shots which are 5/1 every day then you will get very rich following him blind with correct bankroll management and understanding of variance.

A wise man once said "it is better to be a good judge of judges than a good judge."

That is the truest saying in the game!  I know several successful pro gamblers who seriously couldn't price up a coinflip.

Bad analogy, sir. Reminded me of this piece of TfT Gold, two years ago...


Last 5 been heads. I'm lay some 21/20 heads. Just got a feeling

First time I turned up at the Aussie Millions I spotted a well known high stakes player in a mammoth cash game on my first venture into the cardroom.

"how are you doing?" I asked.

"Doing my cobblers"

"ah, sorry to hear that, still 2 weeks to get out of it"

"I want to get out of it now, what is your roll for the trip Keith?"

"About 15k English"

"That's a conincidence, it's what I'm losing in this session. I'll tell you what, I'll lay you 5/4 red or black on the next flop, but you must bet the whole lot".

I would still have had enough money to pay my hotel and exes, but would have faced 2 weeks with no poker (exclude the fact I could have borrowed).

In my spot do you gamble or turn him down?

Turn it down, Shirley?

Positive expectation of £1,875 - ie. 12.5% of the roll. Surely less than forecast ROI on the comps you're going to play? Especially if this is a few years back!

Possibility to borrow makes this pretty much an unsolvable, but in isolation I don't think this is close at all?

I was sorely tempted.

If the Sydney beaches had been in Melbourne I don't think I could have refused him!


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: cambridgealex on January 28, 2015, 08:50:10 PM
For a breakeven decision, wouldn't you need the forecasted ROI of the comps you were going to play to be 50% higher than £1875, to account for the times you win the flip AND play the comps?

So you'd actually need a forecasted ROI of great than £2812 to forego the bet?


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: arbboy on January 28, 2015, 08:52:35 PM
For a breakeven decision, wouldn't you need the forecasted ROI of the comps you were going to play to be 50% higher than £1875, to account for the times you win the flip AND play the comps?

So you'd actually need a forecasted ROI of great than £2812 to forego the bet?

Yes.  Plus you could also factor in you will play more comps during the trip because your bankroll has doubled and/or sell less action in the comps you were already playing.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: Junior Senior on January 28, 2015, 11:21:28 PM
In answer to the question posed in the op.... Yes I am.

Good luck to him.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: kinboshi on January 28, 2015, 11:21:34 PM
At least he hasn't taken a Lamborghini and modded it so it's 2,000bhp (apparently) and then driven it into a lake:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAx_YAy9RwQ


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: Simon Galloway on January 28, 2015, 11:31:06 PM
Don't you have to have a decent understanding of variance in order to be remotely shrewd as a punter?

Not really.  You do if you want to make money gambling long term but you can be a really shrewd judge who is clueless bankroll management wise/variance wise and does his nuts chasing every day but if you use his information because he finds even money shots which are 5/1 every day then you will get very rich following him blind with correct bankroll management and understanding of variance.

But then he is a shrewd tipster or a shrewd judge, but not a shrewd gambler :(



Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: the sicilian on January 30, 2015, 06:01:41 PM
Sicilian is 5'2, and drives a Porsche.

Think that make arbboy right.

which is an inch taller than you :)


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: the sicilian on January 30, 2015, 06:12:49 PM
Why are these types always like 5'4'' tall?  Looks like small man snydrome to me.

Looking at the picture of him collecting the keys he is tiny compared to his missus and the car dealer guy.   He is going to burn through his loot pretty quick at this rate. £28m is hardly monster cash to be donking this type of cash on cars.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2928127/British-multi-millionaire-person-world-3million-Holy-Trinity-hypercars.html

Most cars like these are not designed for the taller person..driving them would be uncomfortable for anyone over 6'2" so prob why the majority are driven by short arses.... im pretty sure a lot of tall blokes would love to drive a motor like this but alas for once their tallness counts against them..




Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: the sicilian on January 30, 2015, 06:17:07 PM
Life isn't fair.

Who knows if this fella deserves his success, but I do know that a high % of people who are rich and successful have achieved it by sheer luck not by talent, skill or hard work.

I know some of the most successful gamblers in the UK but there is only person who if he gives me something he fancies I will back it blind without looking at the market myself.

And this guy who I rate the shrewdest gambler I know is pretty much completely flat broke.

People massively overrate talent and totally underrate variance IMO.

How do you know this ?.. your usual social circle is the self made businessman ?... I know many self made guys and everyone of them is intelligent,shrewd with an overwhelming work ethic.. there are a few wedged up who just happen to be good at one particular thing and are as thick and ignorant as a brick wall with the personality to go with it.. but these are the exception


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: Woodsey on January 31, 2015, 12:43:25 AM
Life isn't fair.

Who knows if this fella deserves his success, but I do know that a high % of people who are rich and successful have achieved it by sheer luck not by talent, skill or hard work.

I know some of the most successful gamblers in the UK but there is only person who if he gives me something he fancies I will back it blind without looking at the market myself.

And this guy who I rate the shrewdest gambler I know is pretty much completely flat broke.

People massively overrate talent and totally underrate variance IMO.

How do you know this ?.. your usual social circle is the self made businessman ?... I know many self made guys and everyone of them is intelligent,shrewd with an overwhelming work ethic.. there are a few wedged up who just happen to be good at one particular thing and are as thick and ignorant as a brick wall with the personality to go with it.. but these are the exception

Spot on, biggest load of horse poop I've heard on here in a while.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: The Camel on January 31, 2015, 01:10:07 AM
Life isn't fair.

Who knows if this fella deserves his success, but I do know that a high % of people who are rich and successful have achieved it by sheer luck not by talent, skill or hard work.

I know some of the most successful gamblers in the UK but there is only person who if he gives me something he fancies I will back it blind without looking at the market myself.

And this guy who I rate the shrewdest gambler I know is pretty much completely flat broke.

People massively overrate talent and totally underrate variance IMO.

How do you know this ?.. your usual social circle is the self made businessman ?... I know many self made guys and everyone of them is intelligent,shrewd with an overwhelming work ethic.. there are a few wedged up who just happen to be good at one particular thing and are as thick and ignorant as a brick wall with the personality to go with it.. but these are the exception

Spot on, biggest load of horse poop I've heard on here in a while.

Try reading "Fooled by Randomness" by Nicholas Nassib Taleb.

It was revelatory experience for me.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Markets/dp/0141031484/ref=pd_sim_b_8?ie=UTF8&refRID=00HEJACM6VW0VCK7WXEJ


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: the sicilian on January 31, 2015, 01:31:42 AM
Life isn't fair.

Who knows if this fella deserves his success, but I do know that a high % of people who are rich and successful have achieved it by sheer luck not by talent, skill or hard work.

I know some of the most successful gamblers in the UK but there is only person who if he gives me something he fancies I will back it blind without looking at the market myself.

And this guy who I rate the shrewdest gambler I know is pretty much completely flat broke.

People massively overrate talent and totally underrate variance IMO.

How do you know this ?.. your usual social circle is the self made businessman ?... I know many self made guys and everyone of them is intelligent,shrewd with an overwhelming work ethic.. there are a few wedged up who just happen to be good at one particular thing and are as thick and ignorant as a brick wall with the personality to go with it.. but these are the exception

Spot on, biggest load of horse poop I've heard on here in a while.

Try reading "Fooled by Randomness" by Nicholas Nassib Taleb.

It was revelatory experience for me.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Markets/dp/0141031484/ref=pd_sim_b_8?ie=UTF8&refRID=00HEJACM6VW0VCK7WXEJ

Did it help you become rich and successful ?


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: The Camel on January 31, 2015, 01:33:25 AM
Life isn't fair.

Who knows if this fella deserves his success, but I do know that a high % of people who are rich and successful have achieved it by sheer luck not by talent, skill or hard work.

I know some of the most successful gamblers in the UK but there is only person who if he gives me something he fancies I will back it blind without looking at the market myself.

And this guy who I rate the shrewdest gambler I know is pretty much completely flat broke.

People massively overrate talent and totally underrate variance IMO.

How do you know this ?.. your usual social circle is the self made businessman ?... I know many self made guys and everyone of them is intelligent,shrewd with an overwhelming work ethic.. there are a few wedged up who just happen to be good at one particular thing and are as thick and ignorant as a brick wall with the personality to go with it.. but these are the exception

Spot on, biggest load of horse poop I've heard on here in a while.

Try reading "Fooled by Randomness" by Nicholas Nassib Taleb.

It was revelatory experience for me.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Markets/dp/0141031484/ref=pd_sim_b_8?ie=UTF8&refRID=00HEJACM6VW0VCK7WXEJ

Did it help you become rich and successful ?

No.

But explained why I'm not :)

Seriously, it is one of the finest books I've ever read. Well worth reading.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: EvilPie on January 31, 2015, 01:48:22 PM
Cliffs:

Arbboy - Yes
Camel - Yes


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: RED-DOG on January 31, 2015, 02:52:57 PM
Cliffs:

Arbboy - Yes
Camel - Yes


 :)


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: The Camel on January 31, 2015, 02:56:27 PM
Cliffs:

Arbboy - Yes
Camel - Yes


Absolutely not jealous. I would never waste my money on a car like that.

The only people I'm jealous of are people who posess a skill or talent I wish I had.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: bobAlike on January 31, 2015, 02:58:01 PM
Cliffs:

Arbboy - Yes
Camel - Yes


Absolutely not jealous. I would never waste my money on a car like that.

The only people I'm jealous of are people who posess a skill or talent I wish I had.

How about if that talent was being lucky getting successful?


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: marcro on January 31, 2015, 03:04:24 PM
Life isn't fair.

Who knows if this fella deserves his success, but I do know that a high % of people who are rich and successful have achieved it by sheer luck not by talent, skill or hard work.

I know some of the most successful gamblers in the UK but there is only person who if he gives me something he fancies I will back it blind without looking at the market myself.

And this guy who I rate the shrewdest gambler I know is pretty much completely flat broke.

People massively overrate talent and totally underrate variance IMO.

How do you know this ?.. your usual social circle is the self made businessman ?... I know many self made guys and everyone of them is intelligent,shrewd with an overwhelming work ethic.. there are a few wedged up who just happen to be good at one particular thing and are as thick and ignorant as a brick wall with the personality to go with it.. but these are the exception

Spot on, biggest load of horse poop I've heard on here in a while.

Try reading "Fooled by Randomness" by Nicholas Nassib Taleb.

It was revelatory experience for me.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Markets/dp/0141031484/ref=pd_sim_b_8?ie=UTF8&refRID=00HEJACM6VW0VCK7WXEJ

Looks a good read, just ordered the Kindle version.  Thanks for the recommendation.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: The Camel on January 31, 2015, 03:07:18 PM
Cliffs:

Arbboy - Yes
Camel - Yes


Absolutely not jealous. I would never waste my money on a car like that.

The only people I'm jealous of are people who posess a skill or talent I wish I had.

How about if that talent was being lucky getting successful?

I don't think you can have a talent for getting lucky.

Although the careers of certain poker players might well prove me wrong.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: kinboshi on January 31, 2015, 03:09:27 PM
Life isn't fair.

Who knows if this fella deserves his success, but I do know that a high % of people who are rich and successful have achieved it by sheer luck not by talent, skill or hard work.

I know some of the most successful gamblers in the UK but there is only person who if he gives me something he fancies I will back it blind without looking at the market myself.

And this guy who I rate the shrewdest gambler I know is pretty much completely flat broke.

People massively overrate talent and totally underrate variance IMO.

How do you know this ?.. your usual social circle is the self made businessman ?... I know many self made guys and everyone of them is intelligent,shrewd with an overwhelming work ethic.. there are a few wedged up who just happen to be good at one particular thing and are as thick and ignorant as a brick wall with the personality to go with it.. but these are the exception

Spot on, biggest load of horse poop I've heard on here in a while.

Try reading "Fooled by Randomness" by Nicholas Nassib Taleb.

It was revelatory experience for me.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Markets/dp/0141031484/ref=pd_sim_b_8?ie=UTF8&refRID=00HEJACM6VW0VCK7WXEJ

Looks a good read, just ordered the Kindle version.  Thanks for the recommendation.

This is an excellent read imo: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Irrationality-Stuart-Sutherland/dp/1905177070


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: arbboy on January 31, 2015, 03:16:58 PM
Cliffs:

Arbboy - Yes
Camel - Yes


Absolutely not jealous. I would never waste my money on a car like that.

The only people I'm jealous of are people who posess a skill or talent I wish I had.

Same.  I shouldn't bite but i will!  Anyone that knows me knows i couldn't give a toss about cars.  My car is probably worth less than the smallest bet i had last week and is so beaten up it literally has no resale value.  If i won the lottery tomorrow i would be amazed if i spent more than £10k on a car.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: david3103 on January 31, 2015, 05:39:52 PM
Cliffs:

Arbboy - Yes
Camel - Yes


Absolutely not jealous. I would never waste my money on a car like that.

The only people I'm jealous of are people who posess a skill or talent I wish I had.

How about if that talent was being lucky getting successful?

I don't think you can have a talent for getting lucky.

Although the careers of certain poker players might well prove me wrong.

Check out the work of Dr Richard Wiseman..

http://www.richardwiseman.com/resources/The_Luck_Factor.pdf


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: kinboshi on January 31, 2015, 05:54:42 PM
Cliffs:

Arbboy - Yes
Camel - Yes


Absolutely not jealous. I would never waste my money on a car like that.

The only people I'm jealous of are people who posess a skill or talent I wish I had.

How about if that talent was being lucky getting successful?

I don't think you can have a talent for getting lucky.

Although the careers of certain poker players might well prove me wrong.

Check out the work of Dr Richard Wiseman..

http://www.richardwiseman.com/resources/The_Luck_Factor.pdf

Good call, he's very good.  Read a few of his books.

I don't know if someone has mentioned it already, but it's sometimes the case of "the harder I work, the luckier I get."  However, anyone who doesn't recognise the way chance shapes our lives and how lucky people are to be born in the right country, at the right time, to make it to adulthood avoiding premature death, having the talent and the opportunity they were born with, and then getting the rub of the green when they need it - is deluded.

I know how lucky I am.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: Honeybadger on January 31, 2015, 06:35:21 PM
+1 to Camel's recommendation for Fooled By Randomness. Great book, and a bit of a game changer in my outlook on both gambling and life in general.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: scotty77 on January 31, 2015, 07:08:32 PM
Cliffs:

Arbboy - Yes
Camel - Yes


Absolutely not jealous. I would never waste my money on a car like that.

The only people I'm jealous of are people who posess a skill or talent I wish I had.

Same.  I shouldn't bite but i will!  Anyone that knows me knows i couldn't give a toss about cars.  My car is probably worth less than the smallest bet i had last week and is so beaten up it literally has no resale value.  If i won the lottery tomorrow i would be amazed if i spent more than £10k on a car.

If he was buying a 100k Range/Porsche/Audi then no one would look twice but he'd lose most of the value of the car in 5-10 years.

With these cars it's extremely unlikely they will ever depreciate by much and they could even increase in value.  Look up the McLaren F1 original retail price and compare it to what they sell for now.

He has one life and he is enjoying spending his money on something he loves. 


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: The Camel on January 31, 2015, 07:58:26 PM
Cliffs:

Arbboy - Yes
Camel - Yes


Absolutely not jealous. I would never waste my money on a car like that.

The only people I'm jealous of are people who posess a skill or talent I wish I had.

Same.  I shouldn't bite but i will!  Anyone that knows me knows i couldn't give a toss about cars.  My car is probably worth less than the smallest bet i had last week and is so beaten up it literally has no resale value.  If i won the lottery tomorrow i would be amazed if i spent more than £10k on a car.

If he was buying a 100k Range/Porsche/Audi then no one would look twice but he'd lose most of the value of the car in 5-10 years.

With these cars it's extremely unlikely they will ever depreciate by much and they could even increase in value.  Look up the McLaren F1 original retail price and compare it to what they sell for now.

He has one life and he is enjoying spending his money on something he loves. 

It's not like a personalised plate, I don't see a bloke in a nice car and think "wanker".

I do think it's a waste of money and I wouldn't spend my money on a 100k car but if it floats his boat, good luck to him.


Title: Re: Are you a bit jealous?........
Post by: Tal on January 31, 2015, 09:11:45 PM
Cliffs:

Arbboy - Yes
Camel - Yes


Absolutely not jealous. I would never waste my money on a car like that.

The only people I'm jealous of are people who posess a skill or talent I wish I had.

Same.  I shouldn't bite but i will!  Anyone that knows me knows i couldn't give a toss about cars.  My car is probably worth less than the smallest bet i had last week and is so beaten up it literally has no resale value.  If i won the lottery tomorrow i would be amazed if i spent more than £10k on a car.

If he was buying a 100k Range/Porsche/Audi then no one would look twice but he'd lose most of the value of the car in 5-10 years.

With these cars it's extremely unlikely they will ever depreciate by much and they could even increase in value.  Look up the McLaren F1 original retail price and compare it to what they sell for now.

He has one life and he is enjoying spending his money on something he loves. 

It's not like a personalised plate, I don't see a bloke in a nice car and think "wanker".

I do think it's a waste of money and I wouldn't spend my money on a 100k car but if it floats his boat, good luck to him.

He's got a boat as well?

I've gone off him now.