blonde poker forum

Sadly, Laura Robson will lose in the first round to Rodina. She has not recovered sufficiently from her wrist injury.
Rodina can be backed to win 2-0 at 2.38 in several places:



On the face of it, that sounds like a decent bet.

Can I steal it & suggest it on Fred?

PS - If Tighty sees it, & agrees, just get on. Failing that, place a £20 bet off thread on my behalf, please.

Sadly now best price of 2.15 but still a decent bet. I'm pretty sure that this is odds-on. It will be void if Robson retires but I suspect that she will try to complete the match. Rodina is a no-nonsense total effort player. Unless her baby has kept her up all night she should coast this.
Feel free to recommend as you see fit.

I mentioned a while ago that I thought it would only be a matter of time before Claire Balding elbowed her way past Sue Barker to present Wimbledon on telly.

Ms. Barker has been hard at it since 11:30am. There's enough limelight to go around.

Thanks Vince.

;)

Draws are here:

http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/scores/draws/ls/lsdraw.pdf

http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/scores/draws/ms/msdraw.pdf


Women's seeds:

There has been an extra week of grass court tournaments this year in the build up to Wimbledon. Sharapova and Serena Williams haven't played any of the tournaments. With no form to go on, it's still difficult to back against either of these two. Serena's health and emotional stability would seem to be the only things stopping her winning at a canter.
Serena Williams has progressed through 3 rounds including an (obligatory) drama against Heather Watson. I wouldn't like to predict with total confidence how she will play against her sister in round 4 but I think that a comfortable victory is most likely.
Sharapova progresses comfortably but fails to impress me. Her serve will be the decisive factor and I suspect that she may not get as far as meeting Serena but, if she does, it will be a very comfortable win for Ms Williams.


Caroline Wozniacki withdrew from the semi-final at Eastbourne today with a back injury. She doesn't give up easily (she is renowned for playing through injuries) and her game is based on her physical ability so I think she can be discounted.
Ms Wozniacki is progressing but I still don't rate her chances and will be opposing her soon. I've not seen Giorgi play this Wimbledon yet but she might beat her. If not, I make Angelique Kerber a solid favourite to beat her in the next round.

Kvitova and Kerber both dropped out of Eastbourne with viral complaints but I suspect that they will be absolutely fine for Wimbledon.
Both are progressing very well and I think there's a good chance that they might meet in the semi-final.

Simona Halep lost to Kristina Mladenovic in the QF at Birmingham and didn't play at Eastbourne. The TV commentators gave Mladenovic a lot of credit but it wasn't a good performance by Halep.
Ms Halep lost disappointingly in the first round to journeywoman Jana Cepelova.

Agnieska Radwanska has found more enthusiasm for the game and should progress well. She has been playing consistently well apart from an odd performance at Nottingham in the semi-final against Monica Niculescu when she lost 5-7 6-4 6-0. She has reached the final at Eastbourne.
Ms Radwanska is, rightly, a big favourite to win her 3rd round match against Casey Dellacqua whom she has a 2-0 record against including a 6-4, 6-0 victory at last year's Wimbledon.

Ekaterina Makarova is a grass court player but she is in bad form - she got slaughtered by a very impressive Johanna Konta (ranked 146 but playing top 50) 6-2 6-4 at Eastbourne.
(I happen to have a very nice freeroll on Konta which has been hampered somewhat by her drawing Sharapova in the first round.  ;bigadz; ).
Number 8 seed Ms Makarova lost to Magdalena Rybarikova in the second round.

Lucie Safarova could do well but after a run of good form and reaching the final of the French Open but has only played one match since then. She lost to Dominika Cibulkova who had been out injured for several months.
Ms Safarova is through to round 4 and will meet the big hitting Coco Vandeweghe. The bookies seem to have it right at 1.67 for Safarova. She is much improved confidence-wise and is unlikely to be fazed by a, likely,  golden patch by Vandeweghe.

Ana Ivanovic flatters to deceive.
AS number 7 seed, she lost 6-3, 6-4 to Bethanie Mettak-Sands in round 2.

Carla Suarez-Navarro is not a grass court specialist and is unlikely to progress far as she is scheduled to meet Mladenovic in round two and Azarenka in round three.
As number 9 seed, she lost 6-2, 6-0 to Jelena Ostapenko in round 1.


Karolina Pliskova has a big game with a great serve which should be ideal for grass. She looks a generous bet at 66/1 with SportingBet.
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/winner
Grrr. She lost 7-6, 6-4 to a very impressive Coco Vandeweghe in round 2. I must have got her confused with her indentical (although left-handed) twin who has made it through to the third round (but is likely to lose to Monica Niculescu).

Sabine Lisicki has a very good draw and a game made for grass. Her form has been inconsistent but she generally rises to the occasion at Wimbledon.
She is through to round 3 but is not playing well. In fact her odds have lengthened! Fingers crossed for her to beat Bacsinszky in round 3

Eugenie Bouchard is well below her form of last year. General opinion is that she has too many off-court distractions. She has also lost a significant amount of weight.
Even with her habit of playing well in Grand Slam events it's difficult to see her progressing far here. She retired against Bencic at Eastbourne.
Number 12 seed Bouchard lost 7-6, 6-4 to unknown Ying-Ying Duan in round one. She may well recover her skills but her ranking is going to plummet even further.

Victoria Azarenka was making good progress after being out for a long time with injury. Sadly she withdrew during Birmingham with a foot injury. This may have been preventative rather than terminal so don't rule her out.
Ms Azarenka will play, and should beat, the youngster Belinda Bencic in round 4. Bencic is making big strides with the help of Monica Hingis but should be out-matched by Azarenka.


Madison Keys should do well on grass but lost her only game on grass this year at Eastbourne to Belinda Bencic 6-2, 6-2.
Still a loose-cannon. She has progressed to round 3 but has an "easy" draw for the next two rounds. I'm a big fan and thought that her partnership with Lindsay Davenport was likely to be the key in her development but things are still unclear.



For the British interest:

Sadly, Laura Robson will lose in the first round to Rodina. She has not recovered sufficiently from her wrist injury.
Rodina can be backed to win 2-0 at 2.38 in several places:
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/evgeniya-rodina-v-laura-robson/set-betting
Laura showed signs of significan progress but still lost 6-4, 6-4 to Evgenyia Rodina. It won't be long before Robson is winning matches.

Heather Watson is playing fairly well and has a first round match against Caroline Garcia who is in very poor form.
I'm a big fan of Garcia generally but Watson at 1.9 appeals.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/tennis/event?id=27476465
Ms Watson played extremely well and lost in an epic round 3 match to Serena Williams as I'm sure you are all aware.

As mentioned above, Johanna Konta drew the short stick.
Yup, she lost 6-2, 6-2 to Maria Sharapova but was better than the scoreline suggests (apologies for the cliche).

Naomi Broady is favourite against Mariana Duque-Marino (who may be allergic to grass) despite being ranked 197 against her opponent at 97.
Broady lost in the first round, sadly.

Random other thoughts:

Sloane Stephens seems to be re-focused on tennis and has an excellent coach in Nick Saviano who suits her personality. It may be a bit too soon for her at Wimbledon but she will be climbing the rankings soon.
Ms Stephens performed well but lost 3-6, 6-3, 6-1 to an impressive Lucie Safarova in round 3.


Oh, and apparently, some blokes will be playing in a tournament too.
I believe that the "big names" are still playing (apart from Rafael Nadal).



All comments made above are purely my own and made under the influence of red wine. I'd welcome any feedback. I'm happy to venture a view on anything else in the women's tournament. (Being uninformed shouldn't stop me having an opinion).
I'm still happy to comment on anything relating to the women's tournament.
Personally, I've backed half the field so I'm hoping to keep some interest into the second week. :)

Identical twins, one plays left-handed & one right-handed?

How very odd, especially at that skill level.

Identical twins, one plays left-handed & one right-handed?

How very odd, especially at that skill level.

Apparently, each one is even more identical than the other.

They have tattoos on different arms too apparently.

Good to see you chipping in Tom; do you have any particular fancies?

Oh God I love the tennis Mere.

Back in the day when I was working 50+ hours a week, it used to do my head in that there was no play of the middle Sunday because it was the only day I got a chance to watch it.

I was really rooting for Raonic to beat Kyrgios. I like can't be doing with people who belittle those they deem less important than themselves.

What a thrill Heather gave us today. I almost died with excitement.

Could there be a more breathtaking sport? Each match is like watching a two or three hour penalty shoot out.

Me too.

I don't follow the men's game but agree 110% with you on when you say "I like can't be doing with people who belittle those they deem less important than themselves.".

I also like that the volume level on the BBCi site for the tennis goes all the way up to 11. :)

I like peace. :)

So how come you wear a Dennis the Menace t shirt?

You need to provide photo evidence or I may sue.

You need to provide photo evidence or I may sue.

(http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/randomicity/images/8/8c/Dennis_the_Menace.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20120903162141)

Totally different.

I have the hair :)

I have the hair :)

I'm beginning to think it's a syrup Ralph.

I bet you have several that get incrementally longer. You start with the shortest and put a longer one on every week until you get to the longest, then you go to the barber, bung him a flag to keep schtum and then walk out wearing the short one again.

I'm beginning to think it's a syrup Ralph.

I bet you have several that get incrementally longer. You start with the shortest and put a longer one on every week until you get to the longest, then you go to the barber, bung him a flag to keep schtum and then walk out wearing the short one again.

How much is a "flag"?

Oddly enough about twenty years ago two guys had a bet about whether my hair was a syrup or not, this was in the old Stakis/Gala/Grosvenor in Nottingham.

They insisted on one of them actually pulling my hair to see if it came loose to settle the bet. I've also been accused of having a perm. and dyeing my barnet.

I mean can you imagine a man of my years dyeing his hair?

Shut up now Ralph. You're turning Mere's excellent thread into a farce.

Quite so.

Actually, as I'm sure you are aware, I'm pleased to get any feedback at all.

Thankyou.

It's not even a great picture of me ;)

(Actually there are no great pictures of me).

Why do they introduce the freeloading sportspeople, who have loads of cash anyway, on Centre Court, and expect them all to be applauded?

They all get a free day ffs.

Applaud those that have paid for them to have a freebie!!

You miss my point Tom.


Never been to the golf and stood around applauding people who have been given a freebie.

Nor the Footy

Nor the racing- bar Royal Ascot

I could go on.


Why Tennis?

;marks;

Mere, let me put decorum and convention aside for a moment and admit publicly that I love you.

Your second ever post sealed the deal for me. I love self depreciation, perhaps that's because I'm personally so bad at it. (One there for the purists)


I read all your stuff but it's usually so far above my head that I find it difficult to make a serious contribution.

I wish I knew more about you though. For instance, have you always been so organised?

Anyway Mr Mere, why only ladies tennis? (Apart from the obvious thrill of the super slow-motion replays)

I just find ladies to be nicer, in so many ways.

Player serves.

Return whooshes past the server for a clean winner.

Can the server challenge that he thought his serve was out?

i don't know myself

but i thought thias was a well written piece on Coco today

http://welovebetting.co.uk/2015/07/wimbledon-tips-7th-july-2015-bbc/

Sharapova is such a squealing ho.

Sharapova is such a squealing ho.

ho? 

Isn't that what she's saying?

each time Azarenka hits a shots its like a granny has seen a ghost

"Wooooooooooo"



not sure you can do anything about the racket they make but it is certainly distracting!

each time Azarenka hits a shots its like a granny has seen a ghost

"Wooooooooooo"

Blimey! I wouldn't like to get my finger trapped between Serena's butt cheeks.

I'm sure there are worse places to get it trapped  :D

Blimey! I wouldn't like to get my finger trapped between Serena's butt cheeks.

Though the explanation to Mrs Red if you got caught would be worth hearing.

I could have been helping her to climb on to the back of a lorry.

With too much female bias in this thread I think a male tip is in order. I think that if Gasquet plays like he did against Kyriagos then he will beat Wawrinka today.

Any thoughts on semis? Bookies have it as a flip do you have any pref between mug v rag?

Any thoughts on semis? Bookies have it as a flip do you have any pref between mug v rag?

I dunno.

My mam used to say "There's many a slip twix cup and lip.

She liked her dunkin her Twix's then?

Maybe she should have held it tighter.

Why does Radwanka have her initial displayed on the score board and Muguruza doesn't?

http://www.wtatennis.com/players/player/12364/title/urszula-radwanska

Mere knows!

Anyone see that stat they just showed on BBC about Sharapova ball toss range 2004 v 2015? Amazing.

Anyone see that stat they just showed on BBC about Sharapova ball toss range 2004 v 2015? Amazing.

I was more interested in Martina Navratilova.  I am glad they had her name up or not sure I'd have recognised her.

Thx for the feedback mere I'm on

The twix has never tasted the same since they split into 2 factories

Well I can't find anything about Mere in that link.

What did it say/prove?

The player playing today was Agnieska Radwanska. The link is to Urszula Radwanska.
Mr Betts was telling you that they are sisters. That's why Ms Radwanska had her initial displayed.

"Interesting" fact: three sets of sisters made the second round of Wimbledon this year.

Apologies. That was awful.
Radwanska served the first ace but Muguruza served the next six.
I couldn't have been more wrong.

no problem I don't usually bet on tennis but ive been able to watch it and won quite abit and really enjoyed it thx again

can anyone find odds for the mens doubles final ?

you can find them on betfair exchange under mens tournament/doubles or similar

thanks betfair is only place i have seen it oddschecker doesnt have it listed

betfair market hasnt formed properly yet but cant believe how big a favourite rojer/tecau are over murray/peers

even without the market being formed proper i think there is still value on murray/peers

Andy Murray is to be disqualified from Wimbledon due to him keeping an old man in his tennis bag!

Anyone looking for a bet in tomorrow's final should back Federer at a shade of odds against. Both players are in better form than last year, when I thought Federer should have won, but Federer's performance against Murray on Friday was sensational. I am not as confident as I was that Gasquet would beat Wawrinka, or that Federer would beat Murray, so don't give all your profit back on this one.

Looks like no-one has noticed, but the greatest and sexiest women's player ever notched up another Wimbledon title today.

Just thought I'd mention it, as everyone seems to have missed it.

(http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03372/Swilliams_3372298b.jpg)

Looks like no-one has noticed, but the greatest and sexiest women's player ever notched up another Wimbledon title today.

Just thought I'd mention it, as everyone seems to have missed it.

(http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03372/Swilliams_3372298b.jpg)

Sexiest wtf?  rotflmfao

Who is your sexiest, Woodsey?

Michael Chang?

;D

I'm with you, MintTrav  :)up

Didn't really come across as all that needy, just superstitious :D

Don't know that much about her, but have never heard anything bad, and thought she came across well enough.

I'm talking about during her play. She looked like a bag of nerves for much of the match today. She kept having to look to her coach/sister/mother and whoever else to reassure her that she'll be ok.

You'd think having been in this spot so many times, she'd have absolute and supreme confidence.

Time kicking on, she's chasing Steffi Graf, and obv wanted to do the 'Serena Slam', whatever that is.

She's been giving the BBC staff 'No, No, No' everytime they tried to mention it through the tournament.

Didn't notice that she did anything different from most of the other players. Apart from win :)

The difference is she's in her mid 30s and won 20 grand slams.

He opponent was 21 and in her first grand slam final. She had every reason to be nervous.

I don't remember Steffi, Martina, Chrissy or Henin needing such reassurance.

I don't think there's a sportsperson I dislike more and funk against more than her (maybe even including John Terry). She might well be a lovely person IRL, but I'm always cheering on the opponent.

One for the irrational dislike thread, I suppose.

Arod needs some serious lessons on dressing himself from Henman.  Can't believe Timmy (the best dressed man on TV) didn't take him to his local tailor to get kitted out for the week.  All week Arod has looked like he just got out of bed.  His tie knot today is awful and his shirt doesn't fit him.  You can take the boy out of Nebraska......

what a pundit though

fantastic insights compared to most of them

worse than all those (and castle in particular is like long nails on a blackboard)

john inverdale on front line commentary

just no


oh and that evening round up programme with balding. what a horrible format


give me roddick, mcenroe and revamp the rest. henman is ok i suppose

I am not having a pop Hector, but why on earth would you think the odds were wrong?

The whole world has seen Federer is playing beautifully and Novak might be slightly below his best.

But that is reflected by the odds. If bookmakers had been asked to price up a potential Fed v Djoko final before the tournament started it would have been 1/2 v 2/1 or 4/7 v 7/4.

The fact that Fed is is on fire means he's 11/10 not 15/8

I totally accept the odds on the world 100 v the world 120 in the first round of the Timbuktu Open might be wrong, but Federer v Djokovich in the Wimbledon final? Near enough impossible.

Hector freerolling me obviously. Will only reply if Federer wins :)

WP sir.

You miss my point Tom.


Never been to the golf and stood around applauding people who have been given a freebie.

Nor the Footy

Nor the racing- bar Royal Ascot

I could go on.


Why Tennis?

I got involved as a troll and got no replies!!! You are free rolling hector now when Djokovic 2-1 up!!!!! I am having a laugh before all hell breaks loose.  Let's get the bottle in the hod for TFT. 

Hector freerolling me obviously. Will only reply if Federer wins :)

WP sir.

Hector never replies to those who question the thinking behind his picks unfortunately.

To be fair my sample size is only two! (Murray v Verdasco 2014 and Bautista Agut v Cuevas in 2015) But both times I questioned selections in terms of value I got no response unless I missed it so I gave up after that.  Perhaps these are isolated oversights or he was busy etc. 

Well, he didn't reply to my post, so now he's 3 for 3.

I have no idea about his response rate but, without aftertiming as i said this before the final, Federer could literally never be the value in the final last weekend.  They were betting 6/4 8/1 pre event.  How on earth could Federer be value at 11/10 even accounting for his slightly tougher draw through out the two weeks?

The only reason i didn't put up a lumpy bet at 1.95 djok was tighty would shit himself and say we already have him for the lot ante post at 2/1.  I don't work like that i just get involved again if the price is wrong but fred is slightly more conservative shall we say and are more likely to lock in than go in again. 

ps does anyone know hector in real life?  I don't.

I'm surprised anyone posts when there is a lynch mob out at every turn.

Camel. You point out that you started TFT so people would explain their picks. This isn't TFT, it's the Wimbledon area.

However. At least he puts his head on the block. for a pro punter, we get very little from you, to then criticise others for actually doing it. It's sad that I feel quite so nervous putting that, because no doubt I will get a right royal slating, but so what. It's the truth, I can only get called the same old names so often, and I will be joining a very long list of select names that you can't stand, so I will be in good company, at least. ;) :D

As for arbboy, well you will never sound like me. I could never sound quite so full of myself over picking a fav that was the clear form choice, ranked clear world number one and has already won the event on multiple occasions. Countdown for a tirade on how I would never recognise value, I don't have a clue about betting etc.

Anyway. I'm sure hector doesn't need me fighting his battles. He has always been a true gent in all my dealings with him, and I'm sure he will reply in his own style, when he sees fit. Certainly not because you lot have called him out.

Flame away. I'm back off to bed.

Cheers Arb.

You didn't disappoint! As ever though, I am happy to lack the finer points of understanding/exploiting value, in exchange for being able to pick winners.

I know you understand your stuff, and that is value in itself, hence the reason I backed Djok when you put it up. Thank you.

From the lack of acknowledgement though, I guess you have been passing up the big priced winners I have suggested. Ergo, you are missing some startling free value! Either that or you're just rude!!! ;) ;D

Tim said he saw you at Uttox races yesterday after the 5th race, you should have come and joined us and Bobby1, you could given us some one on one tuition! :D

He didn't mention it until we were leaving the course, or I would have. He said you were carrying plenty of timber, so I guess you struggled to carry all that cash on a hot day like that! ;)

Only met him yesterday, v nice fella.

yes, even I noticed it was a win only day.... so we did. ;D

Next time mate.