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Community Forums => The Lounge => Topic started by: nirvana on November 25, 2015, 01:02:51 PM



Title: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on November 25, 2015, 01:02:51 PM
Back in the day I had around 14 months day trading for a living, stopped this when a friend and I started a conferencing business. Did pretty well at the day trading when it was like shooting fish etc and then gave a lot back when I left some 'invested' in a few speculative plays while I was focused on other things.

A few years ago, actually more than a few, I took a few small pots of straggly pension funds and put them in a SIPP. I've never been very pension focussed but I have this moderate amount of money and through absolute laziness I left that sitting around as cash with interest offsetting charges - terrific strategy.

The pension cash isn't that important to me as I will just draw it down in lump sums at the earliest opportunity - although not desirable, if it turns to nothing it would be sort of OK

Anyway, had a week off this week so turned most of this cash into 5 shares - mainly longer term recovery ideas, one deece company imo and a more speculative AIM share. Not really very fruity but a bit of fun

I know we've had share threads before but without much interest. If anyone quietly trades with a view on these shares I'd like to hear about it. Also, any tips, however speculative and I might switcheroo some of these holdings

Just for interest, if things go well I might publish progress from time to time, obv if they bomb you won't hear another peep. Starting stack 48,000

Laird PLC
Barclays Bank
Vodafone
Rolls Royce
Boohoo.com

Current stack day 2 - £48,894

Brarfffffffffff, told you I'd only post when up but may keep this going if there is interest and a few ideas that I actually go for



Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: doubleup on November 25, 2015, 01:19:43 PM

def interested in this - why did you pick these shares?

I have a small Sipp that I moved to cash in February and took out a bit in April.  I was going to do the same next year but have decided to take a defined benefit scheme I have so won't be touching the Sipp for a while and have to get investing again.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: RED-DOG on November 25, 2015, 02:31:57 PM
In


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on November 25, 2015, 03:23:08 PM

def interested in this - why did you pick these shares?

I have a small Sipp that I moved to cash in February and took out a bit in April.  I was going to do the same next year but have decided to take a defined benefit scheme I have so won't be touching the Sipp for a while and have to get investing again.

I don't have a lot of depthful research to share. I wanted to do something and didn't feel I had the time to really unearth any gems in terms of growth stocks, so wanted to find a few relatively solid recovery companies.

So, reviewed Banks and chose Barclays but could have decided on a couple of others.

Looked at Telecoms and chose Vodafone based on footprint and reasonable yields and growth potential still

Laird and Rolls Royce are both companies I know to some degree from my work. Rolls Royce has been smashed but has an amazing order book and tremendous forward visibility and certainty via its major positions on some very successful aviation programmes. Think it might take a while as each rise in the share price might get knocked down again due to profit taking. It could of course drop further but long term I can't see how they can remain relatively undervalued like this. Laird just have good products in growing markets and I guess I think we're far from the top of wireless infrastructure and uses and the sub markets they support in terms of RF and EMI.

Boohoo, as simple as wanting some kind of speculative internet/retail thing and reading an article along the lines of 'could they be the next Asos ?' - probably not but felt I could gamble a bit. Strongly cash generative etc made me feel a bit more comfortable

That's about it- some prior knowledge mixed in with about 3 hours of reading



Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: strak33 on November 25, 2015, 03:40:08 PM
Fairly clueless but really interested.

What platform/company do you use? I had a poke around on plus500 because i have always been excited by the idea of stocks and shares.

Is basing investments upon my own opinions and a little bit of research silly?


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Doobs on November 25, 2015, 04:02:32 PM
If you are really day trading the frictional costs of trading will likely get you in the end.

of the ones you have, I have Barclays and Vodafone and held them both for a good while.

Rolls Royce is a company that featured heavily in accounting for growth and it has always put me off. 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on November 25, 2015, 04:50:48 PM
If you are really day trading the frictional costs of trading will likely get you in the end.

of the ones you have, I have Barclays and Vodafone and held them both for a good while.

Rolls Royce is a company that featured heavily in accounting for growth and it has always put me off. 

No intent to day trade this time round (no time or interest really) rather mid-long term expectations - will look at RR in a bit more detail even though that's probably a good thing to  do before  buying. Might have been over enthusiastic based on order books and my knowledge of the kind of programmes they are designed in on.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: TightEnd on November 25, 2015, 04:52:55 PM
its a long time since i analysed RR, i used to professionally as an investor, but get an accountant friend to look at their accounts: they'll never make the money you think they should from their forward book

great business, british world class leader, lousy investment..though my specific recollection is a decade or so old


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on November 25, 2015, 04:56:12 PM
Fairly clueless but really interested.

What platform/company do you use? I had a poke around on plus500 because i have always been excited by the idea of stocks and shares.

Is basing investments upon my own opinions and a little bit of research silly?

I'm not sure what you mean by platform. If you mean research (lol, very light research) then the other day I read across ADVFN, Motley Fool, iii (cause I know these of old) and a bunch of linked and related articles on other sites.

My SIPP is with a fairly traditional financial advisory/brokerage company. If I was buying shares outside of this I have an account with The Share Centre who seemed quite competitive when I opened it but I haven't revisited that for a while


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on November 25, 2015, 05:04:16 PM
its a long time since i analysed RR, i used to professionally as an investor, but get an accountant friend to look at their accounts: they'll never make the money you think they should from their forward book

great business, british world class leader, lousy investment..though my specific recollection is a decade or so old

Haha, cheers for that - I'm going to read some more, take a good look at the financials  and see if they have fundamentally improved 10 years later. Notionally, with billions in the backlog they should be able to extract value but obviously acknowledge that's not always the case.

My biggest gainer so far, 7 hundo or so in 2 days - may decide to day trade after all.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: TightEnd on November 25, 2015, 05:07:50 PM
you bought just after the profit warning right, so short term youve got a nice dead cat bounce

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/engineering/12014452/Rolls-Royce-at-risk-of-further-profit-warnings-concedes-chief-executive-Warren-East.html


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on November 25, 2015, 05:12:02 PM
Fairly clueless but really interested.

What platform/company do you use? I had a poke around on plus500 because i have always been excited by the idea of stocks and shares.

Is basing investments upon my own opinions and a little bit of research silly?

To your last point - it's definitely not silly and there is no real reason to think you can't outperform a managed or advised investment

I would caution that you do a lot of research (rather than a little) and take things pretty slowly in very manageable amounts rather than follow my less then exemplary approach - somewhat frivolous borne of age and general stability (except when drinking)


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Doobs on November 25, 2015, 05:14:12 PM
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL5N0LI30620140213 (http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL5N0LI30620140213)

Seems they still get up to ropey accounting practices.

Terry Smith used to claim in "accounting for growth" that they used a fair few accounting tricks to make their numbers look better than they were.  Eg making the balance sheet look bigger than it was, booked profits too early etc.  It is 20 years + since I read the book, so can't remember the exact tricks, but it doesn't look like much has changed given the stories I have just read.  

Still accounting tricks only you know about are a negative, accounting tricks everyone knows about may well be a positive.  I like to buy when everybody thinks a company is worse than it is.  


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on November 25, 2015, 05:23:08 PM
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL5N0LI30620140213 (http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL5N0LI30620140213)

Seems they still get up to ropey accounting practices.

Terry Smith used to claim in "accounting for growth" that they used a fair few accounting tricks to make their numbers look better than they were.  Eg making the balance sheet look bigger than it was, booked profits too early etc.  It is 20 years + since I read the book, so can't remember the exact tricks, but it doesn't look like much has changed given the stories I have just read.  

Still accounting tricks only you know about are a negative, accounting tricks everyone knows about may well be a positive.  I like to buy when everybody thinks a company is worse than it is.  

Your last sentence more or less sums up my somewhat shallow contrarian thoughts on this one. Haven't read much but had generally thought things had tightened up a lot on revenue recognition - having said that, I do still see stories about this - definitely an issue with companies that contract over very long timescales


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: bobAlike on November 25, 2015, 08:31:31 PM
I know nothing about shares but I have been doing a fair bit of work for RR for over 2 years now. You are correct about the forward order book but his has been the same for 2 years. They do have great products but they don't seem to be able to run the company very well.

They appointed a new chairman a few months ago and hopefully things will improve, some how I doubt it though.

Personal I wouldn't buy, but again I know little about shares.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: 4KSuited on November 25, 2015, 09:39:24 PM
http://www.lse.co.uk/

I have found this site quite good for it's high volume "chat room" (where the key skill is to be able to filter out the rampers & de-rampers), and the facility to monitor a real portfolio or simply a watchlist.

You seem to have a reasonably balanced group of shares so far, but without knowing the %s invested, it's not necessarily so. I like diversification, but I also incline towards the more techy stuff that you usually only find on AIM (financial health warning!) However, there's a couple of company's that I think are worth having a look at:

Gooch & Housego (GHH) - optical technology firm; originally mainly a family affair, but has divested into the hands of a decent management team.

XLMedia (XLM) - IPO was about 18 months ago, and the company still has a big cash pile & a very progressive dividend policy. Involved in generating traffic for gaming websites in addition to providing SEO services in return for fees or commission. Results & trading statements have been very good to date.

Obviously, the standard "Do your own research" (DYOR) applies. I am invested in both. I also hold Lloyds Bank, as I saw this as being more undervalued than the other clearing banks. Good luck!


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on November 26, 2015, 01:09:26 AM
I know nothing about shares but I have been doing a fair bit of work for RR for over 2 years now. You are correct about the forward order book but his has been the same for 2 years. They do have great products but they don't seem to be able to run the company very well.

They appointed a new chairman a few months ago and hopefully things will improve, some how I doubt it though.

Personal I wouldn't buy, but again I know little about shares.

Interesting take Vinni, I've worked for FTSE 100 and similar sized US businesses. Periodically they seem quite dysfunctional and a lot of the time it seems the massive drive for short term generation of shareholder value (exactly what I want I guess) seems to be the major issue as,  oftentimes,  it drives the wrong behaviours ( in terms of customers and growth).

I'm growing attached to RR already and think I'm happy to see the long term run out on this. Having said that, if I lose 20% or so I'll jump.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on November 26, 2015, 01:18:36 AM
http://www.lse.co.uk/

I have found this site quite good for it's high volume "chat room" (where the key skill is to be able to filter out the rampers & de-rampers), and the facility to monitor a real portfolio or simply a watchlist.

You seem to have a reasonably balanced group of shares so far, but without knowing the %s invested, it's not necessarily so. I like diversification, but I also incline towards the more techy stuff that you usually only find on AIM (financial health warning!) However, there's a couple of company's that I think are worth having a look at:

Gooch & Housego (GHH) - optical technology firm; originally mainly a family affair, but has divested into the hands of a decent management team.

XLMedia (XLM) - IPO was about 18 months ago, and the company still has a big cash pile & a very progressive dividend policy. Involved in generating traffic for gaming websites in addition to providing SEO services in return for fees or commission. Results & trading statements have been very good to date.

Obviously, the standard "Do your own research" (DYOR) applies. I am invested in both. I also hold Lloyds Bank, as I saw this as being more undervalued than the other clearing banks. Good luck!

Oh man, talk of ramping takes me back to the late 90s. Generally speaking I think I'm going to avoid forums, and probably avoid AIM, particularly in thinly traded shares where the market makers can make you look a chump pretty easily. I don't have quite the time or inclination to follow this stuff these days and am unlikely to be responsive enough to change to buy and sell remotely profitably.

I know Gooch and Housego somehow in my dark recesses so will reacquaint myself with them and their products - thanks for mentioning them.

In terms of holdings in my embryonic portfolio - investment amount rather than shares:

LRD   14000
BOO  10000
RR     10000
BARC  7000
VOD   7000


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Marky147 on November 26, 2015, 02:55:45 AM
Absolutely clueless about shares, like most things ;)

Will definitely follow, and hopefully learn something, too.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: strak33 on November 26, 2015, 10:34:06 AM
Fairly clueless but really interested.

What platform/company do you use? I had a poke around on plus500 because i have always been excited by the idea of stocks and shares.

Is basing investments upon my own opinions and a little bit of research silly?

To your last point - it's definitely not silly and there is no real reason to think you can't outperform a managed or advised investment

I would caution that you do a lot of research (rather than a little) and take things pretty slowly in very manageable amounts rather than follow my less then exemplary approach - somewhat frivolous borne of age and general stability (except when drinking)


Thank you for the replies.




Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: tikay on November 26, 2015, 02:36:50 PM

Loving this thread Glenn.

Laird PLC
Barclays Bank
Vodafone
Rolls Royce
Boohoo.com


For me, RR Holdings (I assume you mean Holdings - the Aerospace Engineering people not the cars) is the absolute standout.

Yes, halved in value the last 12 months, bla bla bla.

I've had mine since about 1985, & I had the view then - & now - that the fundamentals are so good they are a must hold.  

I should add that I'm stubbornly averse to City chatter, Analysts & the like. I ignore all that. Probably a dumb thing to do, but they all have an agenda.  

Rolls Royce have something very special going for them.

We know that....

They make superb, world-leading, products.

The order book is brimming.

Their engines power (at customers discretion) the A380, for which Emirates have ordered or have options for around 100.  

Their newly upgraded Trent XWB will power the Airbus A350, for which there are orders for some 800.

All in all, they have 13,000 in-service engines around the world in 40 different aircraft types, & that includes 100 different Armed Forces. And of course Marine Propulsion.  

Yeah yeah, blurb blurb.

But here's the thing.

Aircraft engines last (almost) forever, certainly longer than the hulls they power. There are plenty of 30 & 40 year old engines still in service. Air Travel WILL continue to grow, like it or not. As will Defence spending.

And all those engines need regular maintenance, & an endless supply of (certified) spare parts. Maintenance, & aero engine spares, cost a fortune. And Air Travel is inherently safe because of that. Not too many air crashes are caused by engine problems.  

So when RR sell an Aero Engine, they end up with the engineering equivalent of compound interest - decades of spare parts & maintenance are part of the equation. And compound interest is the most powerful of equations. That's a very rare beast indeed in the world of commerce.

A Trent XWB sells for some $50 milly, but it's value to RR over the next 30 to 40 years must be many times that.  

And they MAKE THINGS, a proper company.

Anyway, I wanted to contribute that.

I think they are exactly the sort of Business to have shares in.

Should add, I never buy to sell, I buy to keep, for when I'm old, so these short term ups & downs don't bother me & never have.

(https://faro3dblog.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/12250718.jpg)


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: tikay on November 26, 2015, 07:18:50 PM

^^^^

PS - just remembered the last share I ramped, about 2 or 3 years ago, to Ryan Spittles......

 
(http://www.shareaction.org/sites/default/files/uploaded_files/justpay/tesco.jpg)


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: tikay on November 26, 2015, 07:28:05 PM

^^^^

Tesco shares were £3.50 at the time. Think they are £1.70 now. 

Still, I did suggest he SELL Rolls Royce Holdings at £11, which was the price then.



"Rolls Royce - I actually looked into this because of Tikay's love of this company on his diary."[/b]

Hi Ryan.

If you have not already purchased them, DO NOT do so now.

They were £2.80 on 2008, & are currently £11.22.


They will steadily grow, over time, but you've missed the boat really as to the explosive growth of the last 5 years. The shares of very big Companies tend to plod along fairly steadily.

RR have a forward order book of £70 billion, & their installed base must be worth, literally, £trillions. All that gear has to be maintained, & spare parts supplied. The average life of a RR Aero or Marine engine is over 30 years, so that is a lot of almost guaranteed future income.

A very solid investment indeed, & a fine company to boot, but all that is in the price, imo.

Their latest half year results are here....

http://www.rolls-royce.com/Images/2013_half_year_appendices_data_pack_tcm92-50022.pdf

I think I may have put you on to Tesco, too. They have barely moved in 5 years, going from around £3.20 to £3.70, & have probably lagged the market, but you get a nice steady, & pretty much guaranteed, Dividend. Tesco will have their ups & downs, but they aint ever going away, or busto. Dull as dishwater as a Share, but solid.

You mention Sports Direct. Been an absolutely fabulous Share, gone from around 50p some 5 years ago to £7 now, but the explosive growth is over, & I'd be bailing out personally. The man who runs it is an absolute total genius, football supporters all think he is dumb, (he sort of owns Newcastle United) but he knows exactly what he is doing.

Good luck mate, & I think you are being very wise locking up this money in shares.
 



All from the "Share/Investment advice" thread on blonde just over 2 years ago.


http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=62284.0

 
 
 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on November 26, 2015, 10:55:10 PM
Yah Tikay, it's an interesting subject and it's taken me years to get round to this but quite enjoyed it as I had the time this week to mess around.

I was a bit reassured on RR with talk of an active investor doubling their stake. Can be quite good in terms of some pressure on management to do better and also perhaps some sign of some confidence in the new guy.

Only 2 major competitors and I know both quite well. Engines, I read, is GE's most profitable part of their business and having seen GE close up I don't see why RR couldn't close the gap on their efficiency a bit (which could mean a lot).

Pays yr money I guess and it'll be interesting to see how things pan out over a year or two


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: bobAlike on November 27, 2015, 03:39:32 PM
Interesting article on RR. I would agree with pretty much all of it especially around the byzantine management structure.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/rolls-royce-vital-uk-cant-220446277.html


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: doubleup on November 27, 2015, 06:38:34 PM

What do people think of smaller companies ie market cap <£100m.  On one hand the liquidity is quite poor sometimes so you would have to stay in for the longer term to cover the spread, but on the other hand the big institutions probably haven't scrutinised them to the degree that they have larger companies (because they can never buy enough shares to justify the research) so there might be some value.  Or is that optimistic?


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: 4KSuited on November 27, 2015, 10:27:44 PM

What do people think of smaller companies ie market cap <£100m.  On one hand the liquidity is quite poor sometimes so you would have to stay in for the longer term to cover the spread, but on the other hand the big institutions probably haven't scrutinised them to the degree that they have larger companies (because they can never buy enough shares to justify the research) so there might be some value.  Or is that optimistic?

I wouldn't let the market cap on its own be a determining factor for investment purposes. As long as the share/s were part of a balanced portfolio then I think they're fine.

If I found a company that I was interested in investing in, I'd use the following checklist as a starting point:

1. Is it an area of business that I have an understanding of & does the sector fit with my view of the near-term economy
2. Are there big institutional investors in it, and have they been adding recently
3. How big are the director's holdings (ideally 10%+) and have they been buyers or sellers recently
4. How do the last 2-3 years' accounts look, and are the most recent trading statement/s positive
5. Most small caps are growth shares rather than yield, but if they pay div's, then that's a bonus
6. Spread & liquidity check - some are more actively traded than others, ofc

As someone else has already said, I look at shares as 'Buy & Hold' - until I can top-slice to recover my initial investment & keep the rest as a freeroll.

All IMHO


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on November 30, 2015, 07:21:29 PM
Well, a ludicrously lucky first week comes to an end

Starting Stack  48066
Current stack   49803

Probably gonna make 3% a week from now. Farffff

Slightly more detail shows all of them gaining on the purchase price:

BARC         +0.96%
VOD           +0.78%
LRD            +3.88%
BOO           +4.12%
RR              +6.55%

Portfolio       +3.61%


Rolls Royce in some ways remains the most interesting with slips in earnings forecast for this year and next. So, allowing for the dead cat bounce possibility, let's hope the market is instead responding bullishly despite the mid term negatives and in the belief some of the people changes are going to make a genuine difference over time.

Really pleased with the first week from LRD & BOO and just hope the longer term proves these to be good picks from a growth point of view as that's why they were picked.

VOD & BARC - no surprise there, purchased as long term recovery notions but friendless and no idea what might genuinely get them moving. Hopefully solid performance to the point where they start to look undervalued versus their peers.

Obviously not going to be lots of posts from me on here as I don't plan to switch much around in the first month or two. Will probably post a weekly update and any major news stories around these companies - got to do my bit for the post count - 1 a week on here gonna get me in the advent calendar I imagine - I'll take the 1st December if it's free


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: doubleup on December 07, 2015, 09:29:48 PM

What does the panel think about BP for the medium term?  What happens if oil goes to $20?  Does this give them opportunities to buy distressed assets or will they be too distressed to do so?


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: atdc21 on December 07, 2015, 10:06:15 PM
Deff keen to learn what people think about BP too, thinking of having a dabble lol.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: doubleup on December 08, 2015, 11:12:19 AM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/marketreport/12038090/OPEC-meeting-aftershock-sends-oil-majors-into-the-red.html

However, while shares in BP also slipped, analysts at Canaccord Genuity attempted to reassure investors that the oil major is “equipped to weather the storm”. While the broker anticipates 2016 will be “another tough year” for the industry, it is attracted to BP due to its “leading free cashflow generation over the next few years”, compared with its peers.

Analysts believe BP can sustain its dividend through 2017, and that the group has restructured and simplified its business since the Gulf of Mexico oil spill in 2010.




Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: tikay on December 08, 2015, 11:26:34 AM
I don't know anything about shares but a friend has advised me on buying some in UKOG. Apparently an announcement will be made in the next few days about an EU approval of drilling and they'll shoot up.

Morning Timothy.

Sorry for the late reply.

Please don't be buying these sort of shares based on tips like that - ever.

If they were to test positive for reasonable flow levels, one thing is 100% guaranteed - those "in the know" would know long before we would.   

I'm not saying it is, but this is typical of a classic ramp & sell story.

It's a penny stock, too, so spreads are probably higher than normal, & liquidity is thin.

There's a page of UKOG chat here....

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:LSE:UKOG&display=discussion

The share price was bouncing around last week, too. Only fractions of a penny, but in % terms, big swings.

 https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#q=ukog+share+price


 
I may be completely wrong, but typically, steer clear of this sort of stuff.

All IMO, of course.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: tikay on December 08, 2015, 11:41:42 AM


Hope I have not over-stated the case there - any up to date experts got a view?


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: doubleup on December 09, 2015, 02:34:58 PM

Seemed a bit of an odd story as the company seems to be concentrating on conventional UK production assets (not fracking), so I can't see what the EU would be approving?

Anyway still in the world of oil I've gone in for BP at 345, so lets hope the Saudis crack before I do.

The other sector that's been crushed are the miners - any bargains to be had there?


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: DMorgan on December 09, 2015, 03:27:17 PM
I do some proprietary trading work for a small-ish investment firm and the boss has been holding UKOG for some time and is very bullish about the stock. I mainly trade forex so I don't have another opinion to offer on this particular stock but as with all forms of gambling, nothing is too risky if you stake correctly.

AIM stocks are not inherently more risky than any other type of stock, they are just more prone to error by investors. Making position size mistakes on trades involving blue chip stocks isn't a huge deal, spreads are tight and mistakes can be rectified cheaply but with the volatility of AIM stocks you're going to get found out a lot faster if you're taking stabs in the dark. Just like everything else if you do your homework, factor in worst case scenarios and therefore stake correctly there are some great spots to be found on the AIM market, but its important to have realistic expectations in terms of growth.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: TightEnd on December 09, 2015, 03:34:58 PM
on AIM stuff, you have consider that if you get it wrong, you are often stuck. there won't be a ready two way market to get out when you want to get out

treat any investment there as pure speculative capital


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: RickBFA on December 09, 2015, 04:41:58 PM
Went to an investment presentation yesterday and they were talking about economic cycles, the investment clock and that type of stuff.

What was interesting is that in the phase of the cycle that is coming, commodities have been the best performing asset class historically. We might be a little bit of time away from that but although commodities have suffered horrendously over the last 2-3 years we know that things will turn. Almost everything in life is cyclical.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: TightEnd on December 09, 2015, 04:46:50 PM
wasn't there a big boom in commodities due to a one off demand from china etc as it went from third world infrastructure to first world?

once the tiger economies began to slow and demand for the commodities fell the bust soon followed

so its its own industry cycle?


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: RickBFA on December 09, 2015, 04:53:38 PM
wasn't there a big boom in commodities due to a one off demand from china etc as it went from third world infrastructure to first world?

once the tiger economies began to slow and demand for the commodities fell the bust soon followed

so its its own industry cycle?

I think they back tested all asset classes from 1970 onwards.

There are pretty clear patterns when investing in bonds, equities, cash and commodities (or weighing investment portfolios more heavily towards certain asset classes) are most effective.

Usually in the recovery stage it is equities which perform better, the over heat stage is when commodities usually perform best statistically

Not of this is new, its just interesting to see it back tested and analysed.

 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: 4KSuited on December 09, 2015, 11:03:28 PM
In BP's 3rd Quarter update, they made forward projections based on Brent oil priced at $60 p/b. At the recent OPEC meeting, the Saudis refused to cap production, and it's estimated that the price p/b will fall to around $20. It's widely accepted that the Saudis are trying to render the production of shale gas in the US cost-ineffective, as it's been the first real threat to them in the past 60 years. Oil producers all over the world are simply collateral damage in this game.

In addition, whilst BP may want us to believe that there's an end in sight on the costs of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, I think there's a fair bit more to come on this.

Personally, I'd leave commodities well enough alone atm, but esp oil. At least until there's a lot less volatility in the market. Unless you're interested in shorting.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Doobs on December 10, 2015, 12:04:08 AM
on AIM stuff, you have consider that if you get it wrong, you are often stuck. there won't be a ready two way market to get out when you want to get out

treat any investment there as pure speculative capital

Agree completely, AIM stocks are inherently more risky than blue chips.  Not only is hard to get out when they collapse, the lack of oversight means that more of them will collapse.  I do know a couple of people who very much specialise down there, but they do some heavy research into their selections and don't just listen to the nutters on advfn and iii. 

Growth stocks are inherently more risky than value stocks (ie those with lower/zero dividends are more risky than those with bigger than average dividends).   

I also agree on the commodity boom, it was massive for a long time, and now isn't, so it is hard to believe there is another big upcycle coming soon.





Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: doubleup on December 10, 2015, 02:41:21 PM
Thanks for the advise Tikay.


This is the latest message I got about them shares.

"Oil price is dragging them down at the minute. Waiting for flow testing of HH now and approval for the Isle of Wight IOW licence. IOW due before Xmas and flow test by 9th Jan. It's all still looking good for a decent rise between now and end of Jan"

The guy giving me this info has bought £20k worth and is adamant they'll get to 3p minimum and if things go right possibly 10p.
After a little thought I decided to buy just £2k worth thinking if things don't work out then I might loose £500 or maybe £1000 which won't be the best of feelings, but if I don't buy and they do reach 10p I'll be even more pissed wishing I did.

So this

Apparently an announcement will be made in the next few days about an EU approval of drilling and they'll shoot up.

was bollocks then?  (just saying)


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: DMorgan on December 10, 2015, 03:30:55 PM
I don't know anything about shares but a friend has advised me on buying some in UKOG. Apparently an announcement will be made in the next few days about an EU approval of drilling and they'll shoot up.

Trading news releases doesn't tend to work like this in practice, especially when there is information in the public domain already. Buy the rumour, sell the news. If you're looking to catch a big short term price movement then you're going to have much greater profit potential taking a short trade when the news doesn't live up to the hype. All IMO of course :)

http://www.davemanuel.com/investor-dictionary/buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news/



Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Rupert on December 10, 2015, 06:35:11 PM
What prices did you buy at so we can rate them pls


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Doobs on December 10, 2015, 06:44:57 PM
What prices did you buy at so we can rate them pls

Surely that is irrelevant to what we should rate them at today?




Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on December 11, 2015, 02:33:51 AM
What prices did you buy at so we can rate them pls

No problem - my portfolio graph looks like an umbrella, ridic rapid gain against all sense in the first 10 days (from 48000  to 50430) and back where we started overall more or less at around 48400

BARC 220
VOD 223
LRD 343
BOO 34
RR  564


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: OverTheBorder on December 11, 2015, 09:13:30 AM
What prices did you buy at so we can rate them pls

No problem - my portfolio graph looks like an umbrella, ridic rapid gain against all sense in the first 10 days (from 48000  to 50430) and back where we started overall more or less at around 48400

BARC 220
VOD 223
LRD 343
BOO 34
RR  564

I was told yesterday that is the "Santa bounce" for equities. Which tails off when liquidity falls out the market. I spend too much time with investment consultantants


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: TightEnd on December 12, 2015, 10:57:28 AM
ref BP

"Andrew Neil ‏@afneil now2 minutes ago

As oil slumps to $37 + Russia plans for v low oil prices, Int. Energy Agency says Opec stopped operating as cartel and is “pumping at will”.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: neeko on December 12, 2015, 03:50:39 PM
The main causes of low oil prices are shale oil/ fracking (and the associated problems of oil storage in Cushing OK. Where they set US oil prices) and high prices themselves.

High prices caused changes in behaviour, fuel efficient cars, solar panels, wind turbines, insulation in buildings, the slow down in China, all of these meant a permanent lowering demand for oil, which, with the increased supply has nearly quartered prices.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: doubleup on December 23, 2015, 06:44:32 PM

Nice Santa Claus rally today


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on December 23, 2015, 07:09:12 PM

Nice Santa Claus rally today

Yes definitely, from a peak on 3rd December the portfolio dropped 4k to the 14th December - with today's rally we made 2K back since the 14th to be at £48476 - that's about a month now and a small gain shown.

Looked into all of them a little more and not inclined to change any of them at the moment although becoming less sure about the rationale for Vodafone of the 5 held



Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: doubleup on December 29, 2015, 02:34:14 PM

Dumped my BP shares for a small profit.  Have gone into Smiths Group (SMIN) at 958.

Anyone have a good source of accurate and up to date basic info on companies?  For example if you look at "Dividend Cover", bottom of the right hand column, for BP it says 2.83 which is bollocks. 

http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/quote/BP.

Don't know if this is the DM just not updating or AJBell. 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: DMorgan on December 29, 2015, 03:03:24 PM
If you look on the company website they'll have a page usually called Investor Relations or something like that and I'll have PDFs that you can download of all their quarterly and annual reports including balance sheets.

Be sure to read it thoroughly though, there's usually a fair bit of wizardry in there so have a look at th auditors comments, all of the asterisks etc.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: doubleup on December 30, 2015, 04:14:06 PM

Interesting video interview on this page (12 mins in)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/diyinvesting/article-3352917/Investing-avoid-problem-shares-pick-winners.html#v-3984597068852279528

Some of the things the fund manager says def apply to gambling in general. 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: 4KSuited on December 31, 2015, 12:51:31 PM

Dumped my BP shares for a small profit.  Have gone into Smiths Group (SMIN) at 958.

Anyone have a good source of accurate and up to date basic info on companies?  For example if you look at "Dividend Cover", bottom of the right hand column, for BP it says 2.83 which is bollocks. 

http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/quote/BP.

Don't know if this is the DM just not updating or AJBell. 

I'm not an expert, but I'm aware that %'s & ratios are often expressed based on the latest published accounts...
However, there will often be quotes/references made to 'projected/forward' results etc, which of course are entirely subjective. It's worth trawling through various free websites where you will chance upon links to research done by the likes of Edison.
Apologies if any/all of this is "grannies/eggs"


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: 4KSuited on January 04, 2016, 10:34:02 AM
Apparently they have full consent for drilling so a nice rise is expected for UKOG.
They have been granted permission by OGA to flow-test the well that's already been drilled. UKOG own a 20% share of this particular (Horse Hill) development. There won't be any impact on the sp until the results of the flow test. I hope you haven't invested too heavily in a share that you don't appear to know a great deal about. Never trust the word of a "mate/city type down the pub" without doing your own research.



Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: 4KSuited on January 04, 2016, 10:41:21 AM
Apparently they have full consent for drilling so a nice rise is expected for UKOG.
They have been granted permission by OGA to flow-test the well that's already been drilled. UKOG own a 20% share of this particular (Horse Hill) development. There won't be any impact on the sp until the results of the flow test. I hope you haven't invested too heavily in a share that you don't appear to know a great deal about. Never trust the word of a "mate/city type down the pub" without doing your own research.



Apologies - Tikay has already covered this in far better detail than me, and you've explained the rationale behind your £2k investment.

Just a "good luck" from me, in that case!


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: TightEnd on January 04, 2016, 03:19:39 PM
Stock markets have fallen after a sharp decline in Chinese shares, while oil and gold prices have increased as tensions rise in the Middle East.

Trading in China's main stock markets ended early on Monday after the indexes tumbled 7%.

Europe's main stock markets followed Asia lower, with the FTSE 100 sinking 2.4% and Germany's Dax index down 4.3%.

Meanwhile, news that Saudi Arabia had broken off diplomatic ties with Iran sent oil and gold prices higher.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35219745


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: doubleup on January 04, 2016, 03:29:08 PM

I've gone in for Aggreko because I liked the name.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: TightEnd on January 07, 2016, 12:33:32 PM
£2.6trillion off world stock markets in 2016

how are we all doing?


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: doubleup on January 07, 2016, 02:38:17 PM

Down about a bag since the New Year.....

I also bought this to add to my list of losers

http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/fundamentals/RSW

Can't see why this isn't brilliant.  Hi tech, worldwide, not much debt record of increasing profits.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: redsimon on January 07, 2016, 02:46:09 PM
Down just a bit under 5% since Monday, won't say the £'s :(

Biggest losers so far: next, Shell and Legal & General.

Not done any trading this year though, holding tight for now rather than any panic selling.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: byronkincaid on January 20, 2016, 01:09:59 PM
couldn't resist woodies patient capital at 89.21p. bye bye savings. you guys should probably short it now :)




Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on January 20, 2016, 01:32:55 PM
We're all getting panned. I've decided to look the other way


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: doubleup on January 20, 2016, 04:33:25 PM

I capitulated towards the end of last week.  Think I'll just drip feed into funds over the next few months.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: TightEnd on February 12, 2016, 12:10:14 PM
Stocks Enter Global Bear Market http://bloom.bg/1V720S0


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Doobs on February 12, 2016, 12:56:11 PM
Stocks Enter Global Bear Market http://bloom.bg/1V720S0

... just as the FTSE rises 2%.



Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: byronkincaid on February 12, 2016, 10:00:28 PM
Quote
City of London's diverse portfolio, strong cash flow and revenue reserves give the Board confidence that they will be able to increase its dividend for a fiftieth consecutive year.

Bought £5K for the SIPP @ 348p


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Karabiner on February 12, 2016, 11:37:36 PM
Stocks Enter Global Bear Market http://bloom.bg/1V720S0

... just as the FTSE rises 2%.



Dead cat bounce?


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on February 26, 2016, 12:30:10 PM
Turbulent times the last month or so and got a bit of time today so wanted to give some thought to things

(http://i.imgur.com/fFRpGSe.png)

Overall things don't look too bad considering the recent bearish nature of things.

RR - the market seems to have reacted favourably to recent results and the new guy
BOO- apparently had a reasonable trading Xmas - I've seen buy notes with a target price of 50p - obv these are often nonsense, but it helps me feel they were a good choice
VOD & LRD - treading water but still feel there's some potential with these - especially LRD - time will tell
BARC - oh my, unloved at 220p - still unloved at 166p - so tempting to top up but on the other hand wish I still ran some kind of stop loss and had just slung them out at a -10% drubbing or so - now feel I don't want to dispose of them as the fall is so extreme - could prove, even at this level to be more hope than expectation

As I thought, mainly FTSE shares don't provide many thrills but BARC and RR show that there's still money to be made out of shortish term volatility - if you've got any clue. I don't so ima just carry on holding them all and look again in a month or two


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: PokerBroker on February 26, 2016, 01:08:49 PM
I invested a smallish sum in Tesco in October, and then hit the panic button in January when it when it looked like Armagedon was about to hit and they just tumbled and tumbled and over the last week there has been a revival.   Not anywhere near there peak but far more than I bought and sold for.   Maybe next time I'll take some sound advice before thinking I'm setting up my own boiler room.   


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Doobs on February 26, 2016, 01:18:53 PM
Some performance in these matkets, Nirvana.  Got more Barclays type shares than Tesco over the last few years.   Hate the idea of stop losses.  Just got to sit it out.   It will happen time and again over the years.   You just have to be mentally string and learn to just accept it.  Whilst you will get shares that just keep falling, most are going to bounce when the fear disappears. 

Stop losses just seem too much like deliberate buy high sell low strategies to me.  It doesn't even seem logical. Say you bought at 100p and canny Tikay bought at 95p.  Why should you be selling at 90p when he shouldn't.  You are both holding the same investment at the same price. 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on February 26, 2016, 01:30:29 PM
I invested a smallish sum in Tesco in October, and then hit the panic button in January when it when it looked like Armagedon was about to hit and they just tumbled and tumbled and over the last week there has been a revival.   Not anywhere near there peak but far more than I bought and sold for.   Maybe next time I'll take some sound advice before thinking I'm setting up my own boiler room.  

Love the line about setting up your own boiler room



Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on February 26, 2016, 01:33:45 PM
Some performance in these matkets, Nirvana.  Got more Barclays type shares than Tesco over the last few years.   Hate the idea of stop losses.  Just got to sit it out.   It will happen time and again over the years.   You just have to be mentally string and learn to just accept it.  Whilst you will get shares that just keep falling, most are going to bounce when the fear disappears. 

Stop losses just seem too much like deliberate buy high sell low strategies to me.  It doesn't even seem logical. Say you bought at 100p and canny Tikay bought at 95p.  Why should you be selling at 90p when he shouldn't.  You are both holding the same investment at the same price. 

Yep, take your ticket on stop losses for this kind of investing - more applicable to days when I was trading over very short cycles as there is an opportunity cost of holding (utility etc) akin to the talk around long term positions on the gambling threads


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: 4KSuited on February 28, 2016, 12:29:42 PM
Re: LRD

A positive piece in today's MoS by Joanne Hart. "Buy now and be patient" - sounds very much like your strategy Nirvana.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: UpTheMariners on February 29, 2016, 12:43:48 AM
I highly recommend Stockopedia when deciding what to invest in.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on March 04, 2016, 02:45:19 PM
Absolute scenes this week

(http://i.imgur.com/kzE8S7b.jpg)

When are the bears coming back


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on March 04, 2016, 02:48:41 PM
I highly recommend Stockopedia when deciding what to invest in.

Signed up for 5 free days, looks really interesting and a step up on things like MarketEye that I was using 15 years ago


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: BiloxiDesire on March 04, 2016, 03:11:28 PM
Really interested in making some small investments over the next 3-6 months, but know completely nothing about the stock market.

Can anyone point me in the right direction to any recommended books for a novice?


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: PokerBroker on March 04, 2016, 03:18:03 PM
Every time I check the market prices these days I feel sicker and sicker at Tesco. 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: celtic on March 04, 2016, 10:49:33 PM
I highly recommend Stockopedia when deciding what to invest in.

Welcome to blonde mate, you must be new? :)


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: UpTheMariners on March 18, 2016, 11:06:18 AM
I highly recommend Stockopedia when deciding what to invest in.

Welcome to blonde mate, you must be new? :)

 :D

Really interested in making some small investments over the next 3-6 months, but know completely nothing about the stock market.

Can anyone point me in the right direction to any recommended books for a novice?

The naked trader by Robbie Burns is aimed at beginners.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: muckthenuts on March 18, 2016, 03:16:19 PM
https://www.wellesley.co.uk

I'm sure this is far too good to be true but can anyone tell me more? Out of interest more than anything.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on March 24, 2016, 12:29:52 AM
https://www.wellesley.co.uk

I'm sure this is far too good to be true but can anyone tell me more? Out of interest more than anything.

Wellesley are a peer to peer lender, they offer higher rates of interest than banks because you are effectively taking the risk of lending to groups of people as opposed to a bank and therefore offered a higher rate of interest than you might get on deposit. There are lots of peer to peer lenders and as far as I am aware no major ones have gone bust.

One thing I would say if the company does go bust, these types of investments are not covered by the government's investors compensation scheme.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on March 24, 2016, 12:33:56 AM
Back in the day I had around 14 months day trading for a living, stopped this when a friend and I started a conferencing business. Did pretty well at the day trading when it was like shooting fish etc and then gave a lot back when I left some 'invested' in a few speculative plays while I was focused on other things.

A few years ago, actually more than a few, I took a few small pots of straggly pension funds and put them in a SIPP. I've never been very pension focussed but I have this moderate amount of money and through absolute laziness I left that sitting around as cash with interest offsetting charges - terrific strategy.

The pension cash isn't that important to me as I will just draw it down in lump sums at the earliest opportunity - although not desirable, if it turns to nothing it would be sort of OK

Anyway, had a week off this week so turned most of this cash into 5 shares - mainly longer term recovery ideas, one deece company imo and a more speculative AIM share. Not really very fruity but a bit of fun

I know we've had share threads before but without much interest. If anyone quietly trades with a view on these shares I'd like to hear about it. Also, any tips, however speculative and I might switcheroo some of these holdings

Just for interest, if things go well I might publish progress from time to time, obv if they bomb you won't hear another peep. Starting stack 48,000

Laird PLC
Barclays Bank
Vodafone
Rolls Royce
Boohoo.com

Current stack day 2 - £48,894

Brarfffffffffff, told you I'd only post when up but may keep this going if there is interest and a few ideas that I actually go for



Just stumbled across this, great thread and something I would be very interested in offering my two penneth.

I have a SIPP too(well 2), which I have started actively managing this year. Most of the investments are held in collective funds managed by some of the top managers in each sector. I also have around 10% allocated to buy individual stocks. When I get a bit more time over the next few days I will list my successes and failures.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on March 24, 2016, 08:07:26 AM
Thanks for the interest. Be good to hear about the ups and downs you've had


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: tikay on March 24, 2016, 08:24:37 AM
Back in the day I had around 14 months day trading for a living, stopped this when a friend and I started a conferencing business. Did pretty well at the day trading when it was like shooting fish etc and then gave a lot back when I left some 'invested' in a few speculative plays while I was focused on other things.

A few years ago, actually more than a few, I took a few small pots of straggly pension funds and put them in a SIPP. I've never been very pension focussed but I have this moderate amount of money and through absolute laziness I left that sitting around as cash with interest offsetting charges - terrific strategy.

The pension cash isn't that important to me as I will just draw it down in lump sums at the earliest opportunity - although not desirable, if it turns to nothing it would be sort of OK

Anyway, had a week off this week so turned most of this cash into 5 shares - mainly longer term recovery ideas, one deece company imo and a more speculative AIM share. Not really very fruity but a bit of fun

I know we've had share threads before but without much interest. If anyone quietly trades with a view on these shares I'd like to hear about it. Also, any tips, however speculative and I might switcheroo some of these holdings

Just for interest, if things go well I might publish progress from time to time, obv if they bomb you won't hear another peep. Starting stack 48,000

Laird PLC
Barclays Bank
Vodafone
Rolls Royce
Boohoo.com

Current stack day 2 - £48,894

Brarfffffffffff, told you I'd only post when up but may keep this going if there is interest and a few ideas that I actually go for



Just stumbled across this, great thread and something I would be very interested in offering my two penneth.

I have a SIPP too(well 2), which I have started actively managing this year. Most of the investments are held in collective funds managed by some of the top managers in each sector. I also have around 10% allocated to buy individual stocks. When I get a bit more time over the next few days I will list my successes and failures.

Morning acegooner,

Pardon me asking, but your style of writing seems familiar, do I know you from another Forum? The alias - identical - might be a clue, too. Not much gets past me, you know.

Post more, always enjoy your views on matters.

If my memory serves me correctly, you are a huge fan of Lord Sir King His Holiness The Almighty Arsene Wenger, right?


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on March 24, 2016, 11:30:20 AM
Back in the day I had around 14 months day trading for a living, stopped this when a friend and I started a conferencing business. Did pretty well at the day trading when it was like shooting fish etc and then gave a lot back when I left some 'invested' in a few speculative plays while I was focused on other things.

A few years ago, actually more than a few, I took a few small pots of straggly pension funds and put them in a SIPP. I've never been very pension focussed but I have this moderate amount of money and through absolute laziness I left that sitting around as cash with interest offsetting charges - terrific strategy.

The pension cash isn't that important to me as I will just draw it down in lump sums at the earliest opportunity - although not desirable, if it turns to nothing it would be sort of OK

Anyway, had a week off this week so turned most of this cash into 5 shares - mainly longer term recovery ideas, one deece company imo and a more speculative AIM share. Not really very fruity but a bit of fun

I know we've had share threads before but without much interest. If anyone quietly trades with a view on these shares I'd like to hear about it. Also, any tips, however speculative and I might switcheroo some of these holdings

Just for interest, if things go well I might publish progress from time to time, obv if they bomb you won't hear another peep. Starting stack 48,000

Laird PLC
Barclays Bank
Vodafone
Rolls Royce
Boohoo.com

Current stack day 2 - £48,894

Brarfffffffffff, told you I'd only post when up but may keep this going if there is interest and a few ideas that I actually go for



Just stumbled across this, great thread and something I would be very interested in offering my two penneth.

I have a SIPP too(well 2), which I have started actively managing this year. Most of the investments are held in collective funds managed by some of the top managers in each sector. I also have around 10% allocated to buy individual stocks. When I get a bit more time over the next few days I will list my successes and failures.

Morning acegooner,

Pardon me asking, but your style of writing seems familiar, do I know you from another Forum? The alias - identical - might be a clue, too. Not much gets past me, you know.

Post more, always enjoy your views on matters.

If my memory serves me correctly, you are a huge fan of Lord Sir King His Holiness The Almighty Arsene Wenger, right?

Damn my plan to sneak in undercover failed miserably. It's a fair cop gov, guilty as charged!

I am one and the same yes Tikay. Don't write much on the sky forum these days unless its a slightly off topic issue where I feel I can help.

To be honest I have been looking for a good forum for discussing shares. Hopefully you, Nirvana or any of the other regs on blonde who dabble in the markets could point me in the right direction.

Not sure if you picked up from sky but I am a financial services man, not into day trading or anything, but have dabbled in the stock market since the days of "tell Sid". Seen the dot.com boom/bust, financial crisis and now the commodity crisis. Could there be a Brexit induced crisis in the markets? Who knows!



 

 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on March 24, 2016, 12:07:22 PM
Thanks for the interest. Be good to hear about the ups and downs you've had

Don't really know where to start here lol. As mentioned I have 2 pensions plus an ISA that I am funding not very well from sky poker winnings :).

Currently I hold 20 funds, and around 10 different stocks. It would take me all day to go through each fund/share and explain my rationale behind each investment so I will break them down. Would be interested to hear your thoughts on some of the stocks.

I noted your comments at the beginning of the diary, it seems like this money in the SIPP is pretty much money you can afford to take a higher level of risk with, so in principal it seems fine and makes sense to dabble in individual stocks. However, (and I am regurgitating the training and my studies in the financial services world) diversification is key to an successful and stable portfolio. It's a bit like poker, if you only give yourself 5 buyins at a particular level your roll will experience a large amount of variance. But at the end of the day it's your dosh I am only giving a few pointers.

Looking at the portfolio overall, do you have a strategy for brexit? If we leave the EU, it is anticipated that mid cap stocks (FTSE 250/350) could be hit the hardest, especially those whose main trading partners are in the EU. 

Turning to my portfolio, and I will detail the losers but its more fun bragging about the winners!

First up ARM Holdings, a truly amazing company. Many people don't realise the design for chips in their iphones/android handsets originates from good old Cambridge in the UK. ARM holdings is one of those famous dot.com boom/bust stories, in the early noughties the share price (like other tech stocks) fell 90%. Amazingly since then they have not only recovered but outperformed the overall market. I bought into ARM in three tranches, at £2.92 (6 years ago), £4.74 and £7.90 (about three years ago). Today the share price is £10! So what does the future hold for ARM? Well they are not only a mobile phone chip designer, they are also into the internet thing of things. An example application would be a smart fridge, where it keeps an eye out for the food you have and when you are running low it sends an on line shopping request to a supermarket. There are potentially thousands of other applications. Given this, I am a long term holder of this stock.

This year I set up my second SIPP, after deciding using a wealth manager was too expensive and that I had the time/inclination to invest the money myself. So I set up a SIPP with Bestinvest, they are OK service wise nothing special nowhere near as informative as Hargreaves Lansdown. Within this SIPP I hold 18 funds and 6 different shares.

The worst performing share is a company called NCC group (in the FTSE 250). They are a cyber security company and after doing some research at the back end of last year bought in at around £3.10. The shares currently trade around £2.50 so just over a 20% paper loss in 3 months, not great but 3 months is no time at all in the stock market. I am not sure why the shares are depressed, nearly every broker firm in the city have them rated as a buy and after events like the carphone warehouse hacking last year, there is a serious demand for cyber security services from corporates. I am not too concerned as I only invested £1k, and I am following my mantra of diversification which I will explain in future posts!   

 

 






 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on March 24, 2016, 12:29:32 PM
Sorry Tikay didn't fully reply to your question about LAW. See a new acronym!

I am definitely not an AKB (Arsene Knows Best) anymore, and have over the last 12 months moved over to the WOB (Wenger out brigade). The club are being run as a business for the benefit of Kroenke who has to take responsibility but so does Wenger. This year we should have won the league, all it would have taken is a proven goalscorer and a decent defensive midfielder (Pogba springs to mind) and I really believe we would be coasting to the title. To go the whole summer without signing an outfield player when we clearly needed at least 1 or 2 is unforgivable.



Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: tikay on March 24, 2016, 01:13:35 PM
Sorry Tikay didn't fully reply to your question about LAW. See a new acronym!

I am definitely not an AKB (Arsene Knows Best) anymore, and have over the last 12 months moved over to the WOB (Wenger out brigade). The club are being run as a business for the benefit of Kroenke who has to take responsibility but so does Wenger. This year we should have won the league, all it would have taken is a proven goalscorer and a decent defensive midfielder (Pogba springs to mind) and I really believe we would be coasting to the title. To go the whole summer without signing an outfield player when we clearly needed at least 1 or 2 is unforgivable.



I know........ ;)

We have an Arsenal thread, you know. I've not dared read the last 10 pages, it gets a little warm in there from time to time.

Nice story today though, when Arsene sent a birthday letter & signed football to the son of one of our Members.



http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56806.1845


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on March 24, 2016, 09:56:34 PM
Sorry Tikay didn't fully reply to your question about LAW. See a new acronym!

I am definitely not an AKB (Arsene Knows Best) anymore, and have over the last 12 months moved over to the WOB (Wenger out brigade). The club are being run as a business for the benefit of Kroenke who has to take responsibility but so does Wenger. This year we should have won the league, all it would have taken is a proven goalscorer and a decent defensive midfielder (Pogba springs to mind) and I really believe we would be coasting to the title. To go the whole summer without signing an outfield player when we clearly needed at least 1 or 2 is unforgivable.



I know........ ;)

We have an Arsenal thread, you know. I've not dared read the last 10 pages, it gets a little warm in there from time to time.

Nice story today though, when Arsene sent a birthday letter & signed football to the son of one of our Members.



http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56806.1845

There is an Arsene Wenger thread on the onlinegooner, this one is tame compared with some of the comments made about AW on there. Personally I avoid the Wenger Out thread, some of the stuff said is way out of line. You have to give him credit with the stadium move etc but he is ruining his legacy. I now miss Highbury, you couldn't beat a midweek cup tie in years gone by with a packed North Bank Terrace. Proper football in those days played by men not pansy's, with an amazing atmosphere something modern stadia could never come close to.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on March 26, 2016, 09:39:04 AM
In my previous post I mentioned diversification as a way of mitigating risk. When I say this I mean not putting all your eggs in one basket, as well as company shares you can easily invest in managed funds, commercial property, bonds, commodities, currrency and cash (although the returns from cash have been awful for many years).

This year there are two inherent risk situations, firstly the Chinese economy and stock market which has already had a massive influence on share prices globally, and yes it's reared its ugly head again Brexit. So focusing on Brexit, the "experts" believe that leaving the EU will have a detrimental effect on shares outside the FTSE100 (which really comprises global organisations rather than just British). I am talking about companies that are in the FTSE250/350 and small cap (such as AIM listed). The pound is under incredible pressure, on the day the Boris joined the leave camp, the pound fell 2.5% against the dollar on that day alone which is a massive swing for any currency. Analysts are talking about the pound depreciating 10-15% against the dollar if we leave the EU.

So how have I tried to play this. Well gold fulfils two criteria, it is a safe haven asset which investors turn to when the stock market hits bad times, and it is also priced in dollars so if the value of sterling (versus the dollar) falls my investment value increases even if the gold price remains static. I am using ETF's (exchange traded funds) which are designed to mirror the movement in the price of gold. I will review post referendum and decide if I want to stay invested in gold going forward. My initial investment in the fund was made in January and we are pretty much break even at the moment, but any more volatility in the markets will not doubt have investors piling into gold.

Just a footnote about the investments I make, these are not personal recommendations. Everyone's situation is different. If you are not sure about investing money in high risk instruments, it's always best to seek professional advice first.

I am quite an aggressive investor always looking for value in different markets but at the same time looking to hedge risk. The gold investment is a classic example.

   


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on July 18, 2016, 12:55:40 PM
Shame this thread has died a death, today ARM holdings accepted a big offer from Softbank for £17 a share which given the prices I paid represent a massive windfall for me!


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: redsimon on July 19, 2016, 01:38:48 PM
Shame this thread has died a death, today ARM holdings accepted a big offer from Softbank for £17 a share which given the prices I paid represent a massive windfall for me!

That is a very nice return, in a SIPP too so no CGT?

What are you thinking of investing the proceeds on?

Thoughts on "brexit proof" shares in the coming months (Obviously with the caveat that you are not offering investment advice!) :)


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: 4KSuited on July 19, 2016, 03:11:00 PM
Market turbulence always presents buying opportunities. The optimum position is where you anticipated the turbulence and sold most/all of your holdings, then had the chance to re-invest at a major discount. Next best is where you still have a chunk of uninvested cash, so you can average down your holdings or get into the companies that you thought had been fully valued or indeed overpriced. Nirvana hasn't said, but I get the impression that he was fully invested, but there's certainly an opportunity to re-evaluate the holdings & maybe sell one to take advantage of a better discounted price.

Whilst Builders have taken a hammering, they've made up some but not all of the ground lost in the initial Brexit collapse. The fear element in this sector should really be focussed (imo) on the agents, the high-end residential markets and commercial. Most house builders cater for the middle market, and some are even involved in substantial public works. All IMHO. I have an interest in Galliford Try, and for those who can afford to invest, it's worth doing some research of your own.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on July 19, 2016, 06:24:53 PM
Shame this thread has died a death, today ARM holdings accepted a big offer from Softbank for £17 a share which given the prices I paid represent a massive windfall for me!

That is a very nice return, in a SIPP too so no CGT?

What are you thinking of investing the proceeds on?

Thoughts on "brexit proof" shares in the coming months (Obviously with the caveat that you are not offering investment advice!) :)

Yeah it's in a SIPP so no tax worries and also no temptation to go out and spend the profit!  The return is around 580%, 358% and 215% on an investment that spans between 3 and 6 years. I bought more shares as the price went up.

Looking at it from a UK perspective, we have lost a true world beater which is a real shame. The general consensus amongst shareholders is the share price would eventually get well beyond the £17 offered but it would be a few years we that the company as it is hits those levels. Personally if I had my own way, I would keep the investment - I am definitely not a Jam today type of person.

If the Japanese do end up firing the UK workers then I will not be happy, this is all a direct consequence of Brexit. They said it was scaremongering but I think we really are looking at some tough times ahead, but that's another debate that i've had my fill of tbh.

Good question about re-investing the profits, I really do not have a clue. Going by the normal size of investments I usually make I will need to find 4 or 5 companies or funds to park my money. Will need to start thinking about this but technology type investments will probably be the way.

With regards to Brexit Proofing, really it's probably too late now. If you read up I mentioned my investments in Gold and overseas Shares/Funds prior to the referendum. I have more money at this time invested in overseas companies than UK companies and because the £ has collapsed, my portfolio increased 10% within a few days of the referendum, and it has done well since Brexit. I also bought more gold over the last few days as I think the market rally has been overdone, and a certain Mr Trump is looming over the horizon. Gold is up over 20% year to date so proving to be a good "safe haven" investment.

If Boris Johnson can move the pound a significant amount by joining vote leave, then god help us if Trump gets into the White House!


 

 

 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on July 19, 2016, 07:25:06 PM
Shame this thread has died a death, today ARM holdings accepted a big offer from Softbank for £17 a share which given the prices I paid represent a massive windfall for me!

That is a very nice return, in a SIPP too so no CGT?

What are you thinking of investing the proceeds on?

Thoughts on "brexit proof" shares in the coming months (Obviously with the caveat that you are not offering investment advice!) :)

Yeah it's in a SIPP so no tax worries and also no temptation to go out and spend the profit!  The return is around 580%, 358% and 215% on an investment that spans between 3 and 6 years. I bought more shares as the price went up.

Looking at it from a UK perspective, we have lost a true world beater which is a real shame. The general consensus amongst shareholders is the share price would eventually get well beyond the £17 offered but it would be a few years before it hits those levels. Personally if I had my own way, I would keep the investment - I am definitely not a Jam today type of person.

If the Japanese do end up firing the UK workers then I will not be happy, this is all a direct consequence of Brexit. They said it was scaremongering but I think we really are looking at some tough times ahead, but that's another debate that i've had my fill of tbh.

Good question about re-investing the profits, I really do not have a clue. Going by the normal size of investments I usually make I will need to find 4 or 5 companies or funds to park my money. Will need to start thinking about this but technology type investments will probably be the way.

With regards to Brexit Proofing, really it's probably too late now. If you read up I mentioned my investments in Gold and overseas Shares/Funds prior to the referendum. I have more money at this time invested in overseas companies than UK companies and because the £ has collapsed, my portfolio increased 10% within a few days of the referendum, and it has done well since Brexit. I also bought more gold over the last few days as I think the market rally has been overdone, and a certain Mr Trump is looming over the horizon. Gold is up over 20% year to date so proving to be a good "safe haven" investment.

If Boris Johnson can move the pound a significant amount by joining vote leave, then god help us if Trump gets into the White House!


 

 

 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on July 19, 2016, 07:37:20 PM
Quite interesting seeing ARM today (haven't looked at them for years).

If I still held 20% of the shares I held in ARM at various times in 1999 I'd be rather wealthy now - silly thoughts of course because they weren't being bought for long term holds. Still a good demo of what you can achieve over a relatively short period or what seems like a short period at my age now.

Stimulated me to a brief update - having spent most of my SIPP monies back in Nov, I haven't really paid attention - thought it might stimulate me to get active and use other monies but it hasn't really.

I look at this portfolio every day though and have a kind of have a mental stop-loss in mind of 10% from here. Lack of time/motivation means I'm probably missing opportunities to lock in some profit and more pertinently perhaps take some losses on shares like Barclays.

BOOHOO has well exceeded my expectation in the timescale and accounts for all the gain in the portfolio which is pretty good and way better than any advisory service would have yielded for me (luckbox).

The other 4 shares (notionally more steady) come out as a wash and am happy with all the holdings still except BARC. It's a relatively small piece (now) and the rationale side of me says the money could be used much better elsewhere and the emotional side wants to hang on and try and recover a little more ground. Think I need to move my SIPP provider so I can trade shares online myself rather than bother with the brokers as it might motivate me to play around a little more. Probably just let it ride because I'm lazy

Anyway, here's the scores on the doors - must revisit the current analysis on BOO as could still present a great opportunity

(http://i.imgur.com/2ZMxQyi.png)


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: strak33 on July 28, 2016, 11:48:46 AM
Bit quiet in here. All the RR holders still dancing around? :)


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: tikay on July 28, 2016, 12:12:33 PM
Bit quiet in here. All the RR holders still dancing around? :)

I wish. Pretty sure they were £12 a few years ago. Having said that, decent bounce recently.

They keep sending me scrip dividends (I assume they are scrip divs) ) in the form of Non Cumulative Redeemable Preference Shares. No exaggeration, I bet I have hundreds of thousands of them. Think they are worth £0.0001 each. 



Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on August 26, 2016, 12:38:44 PM
Keep meaning to drop in for an update, so the ARM takeover will be completed by September and my SIPP account will be funded with the cash equivalent of £17 a share. I decided to sell half my holding last month, on the basis that the takeover might not happen, and that if that was the case it would give me the opportunity to buy in for a lower price. As things stand, I expect the takeover to proceed smoothly with no hitches.

Whilst ARM is a notable investment success for me, I am at pains to stress that I do not consider myself a good stock picker. Some of the profits I have made down the years have as much been down to luck rather than judgement. At present I have a strategy of putting 80% of my funds for SIPPs/ISA's into the hands of capable fund managers. Stocks I currently hold are Just Eat, Dixons, NCC Group, Purplebricks and Metro Bank.

Two funds I bought post Brexit are Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Fundsmith, both of which have increased over 10% since the fateful day so I am happy with that. More importantly both these funds have a record of providing solid returns over the longer term and are well respected in the financial world. I also like investing in technology shares and have parked some cash with the Allianz Technology Trust.

Before I go here's a few investment ideas for a Tikay style fund :).

Lafarge Holcim - Concrete Solutions company - Listed in Paris and Zurich
Bombadier - Train Manufacturer - Listed in Toronto
Kier Group - Property and Construction - London
Hornby  PLC :) -  Model Railways -  AIM - London

Ok I got bored after 4 companies, perhaps it's the subject material ;).  







Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: tikay on August 26, 2016, 12:48:24 PM


^^^^

Ha, now you are talking.

Excellent work. 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: redsimon on August 26, 2016, 01:16:12 PM
Bought a chunk in Hornby though still showing a loss there.

Restaurant Group is my current star. I bought in April 2016 and two days later a profit warning led to a quick 20% drop...doubled my holding a few weeks later and its now showing a 33% plus profit in 4 months, just announced a restructuring closing a number of duff outlets and ousted the old Chief exec.

My painful shares are still NEXT and Tesco both continuing to bump along at 20% losses.

Overall my portfolios in a SIPP and a ISA are back above pre Brexit vote levels but been very volatile this year.

I do agree though I've had some very lucky picks and generally avoided real disasters but I do tend to buy and keep than constantly trade.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: PokerBroker on August 28, 2016, 02:54:22 PM
Keep meaning to drop in for an update, so the ARM takeover will be completed by September and my SIPP account will be funded with the cash equivalent of £17 a share. I decided to sell half my holding last month, on the basis that the takeover might not happen, and that if that was the case it would give me the opportunity to buy in for a lower price. As things stand, I expect the takeover to proceed smoothly with no hitches.

Whilst ARM is a notable investment success for me, I am at pains to stress that I do not consider myself a good stock picker. Some of the profits I have made down the years have as much been down to luck rather than judgement. At present I have a strategy of putting 80% of my funds for SIPPs/ISA's into the hands of capable fund managers. Stocks I currently hold are Just Eat, Dixons, NCC Group, Purplebricks and Metro Bank.

Two funds I bought post Brexit are Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Fundsmith, both of which have increased over 10% since the fateful day so I am happy with that. More importantly both these funds have a record of providing solid returns over the longer term and are well respected in the financial world. I also like investing in technology shares and have parked some cash with the Allianz Technology Trust.

Before I go here's a few investment ideas for a Tikay style fund :).

Lafarge Holcim - Concrete Solutions company - Listed in Paris and Zurich
Bombadier - Train Manufacturer - Listed in Toronto
Kier Group - Property and Construction - London
Hornby  PLC :) -  Model Railways -  AIM - London

Ok I got bored after 4 companies, perhaps it's the subject material ;).  







I thnk Metro Bank could be a  nice long term hold.  I don't know a great deal about shares but as a challenger bank they are pretty decent in the Mortgage market.  They are changing lots of things slowly and they are positive changes so far.  If they become bolder and relax some of their rules they could be a big player in the market soon and that is likely to give them more exposure. 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Doobs on August 28, 2016, 10:33:41 PM
Keep meaning to drop in for an update, so the ARM takeover will be completed by September and my SIPP account will be funded with the cash equivalent of £17 a share. I decided to sell half my holding last month, on the basis that the takeover might not happen, and that if that was the case it would give me the opportunity to buy in for a lower price. As things stand, I expect the takeover to proceed smoothly with no hitches.

Whilst ARM is a notable investment success for me, I am at pains to stress that I do not consider myself a good stock picker. Some of the profits I have made down the years have as much been down to luck rather than judgement. At present I have a strategy of putting 80% of my funds for SIPPs/ISA's into the hands of capable fund managers. Stocks I currently hold are Just Eat, Dixons, NCC Group, Purplebricks and Metro Bank.

Two funds I bought post Brexit are Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Fundsmith, both of which have increased over 10% since the fateful day so I am happy with that. More importantly both these funds have a record of providing solid returns over the longer term and are well respected in the financial world. I also like investing in technology shares and have parked some cash with the Allianz Technology Trust.

Before I go here's a few investment ideas for a Tikay style fund :).

Lafarge Holcim - Concrete Solutions company - Listed in Paris and Zurich
Bombadier - Train Manufacturer - Listed in Toronto
Kier Group - Property and Construction - London
Hornby  PLC :) -  Model Railways -  AIM - London

Ok I got bored after 4 companies, perhaps it's the subject material ;).  







I thnk Metro Bank could be a  nice long term hold.  I don't know a great deal about shares but as a challenger bank they are pretty decent in the Mortgage market.  They are changing lots of things slowly and they are positive changes so far.  If they become bolder and relax some of their rules they could be a big player in the market soon and that is likely to give them more exposure. 



Looks like a complete bag of bollocks to me.  A loss making bank at a huge premium to net assets.  Talks about a powerful AMAZE culture in the half year results.  Sounds impressive?  Nope, not to me either.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Lucky on September 13, 2016, 11:06:19 AM
They often say that when the USA sneezes, Europe catches a cold.  We saw that in action yesterday, with our our markets tumbling due to Hilary's pneumonia.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: 4KSuited on September 13, 2016, 12:19:51 PM
They often say that when the USA sneezes, Europe catches a cold.  We saw that in action yesterday, with our our markets tumbling due to Hilary's pneumonia.

Oh, so that was what caused it! I didn't get round to reading the market reports last night, and this morning I've just been re-reading the match report from last night. I haven't been this happy on a Tuesday morning for a long long time...

Meanwhile, it's useful to regard these relatively baseless sell offs as buying opportunities. One of my best decisions recently was to sell half my portfolio on the eve of the Brexit vote (what I was hearing didn't match what I was reading), and then buy back in on the Monday after. Even then I wasn't sure it was the right decision even with a 25-40% discount, and of course the ride will still be bumpy depending how T May & her new team negotiate the terms. However, I was pleased with her strident "I'm not giving you a running commentary on how the negotiations are going" speech from the despatch box.

I remain a firm advocate of the Construction & Proprty sector, with particular focus on residential. Even after the significant post-Brexit bounce, most of the big players are well off their 12m highs and offer prospective yields of 3%+. I've already mentioned my interest in Galliford Try; more recently I've taken an interest in Henry Boot.

Good hunting, and of course, DYOR


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on September 22, 2016, 10:52:08 PM
Keep meaning to drop in for an update, so the ARM takeover will be completed by September and my SIPP account will be funded with the cash equivalent of £17 a share. I decided to sell half my holding last month, on the basis that the takeover might not happen, and that if that was the case it would give me the opportunity to buy in for a lower price. As things stand, I expect the takeover to proceed smoothly with no hitches.

Whilst ARM is a notable investment success for me, I am at pains to stress that I do not consider myself a good stock picker. Some of the profits I have made down the years have as much been down to luck rather than judgement. At present I have a strategy of putting 80% of my funds for SIPPs/ISA's into the hands of capable fund managers. Stocks I currently hold are Just Eat, Dixons, NCC Group, Purplebricks and Metro Bank.

Two funds I bought post Brexit are Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Fundsmith, both of which have increased over 10% since the fateful day so I am happy with that. More importantly both these funds have a record of providing solid returns over the longer term and are well respected in the financial world. I also like investing in technology shares and have parked some cash with the Allianz Technology Trust.

Before I go here's a few investment ideas for a Tikay style fund :).

Lafarge Holcim - Concrete Solutions company - Listed in Paris and Zurich
Bombadier - Train Manufacturer - Listed in Toronto
Kier Group - Property and Construction - London
Hornby  PLC :) -  Model Railways -  AIM - London

Ok I got bored after 4 companies, perhaps it's the subject material ;).  







I thnk Metro Bank could be a  nice long term hold.  I don't know a great deal about shares but as a challenger bank they are pretty decent in the Mortgage market.  They are changing lots of things slowly and they are positive changes so far.  If they become bolder and relax some of their rules they could be a big player in the market soon and that is likely to give them more exposure. 



Looks like a complete bag of bollocks to me.  A loss making bank at a huge premium to net assets.  Talks about a powerful AMAZE culture in the half year results.  Sounds impressive?  Nope, not to me either.

Ironically I have held Metro Bank since floatation, currently sitting on paper profits of 40%. Although we are only talking about 6 months compare the performance of MB with the "profitable" banks. Yes they pay nice dividends but over the last 10 years there hasn't been any capital appreciation.

Loss making companies share prices do appreciate and in my humble opinion, markets see them as "disruptor" in their sector. I have spent a lot of time engaging with Metro Bank over the last few years through business and socially, they are a proper bank with a culture that I can only describe as similar to the likes of John Lewis.

They offer a personalised service that we haven't seen from all the other high street banks for decades. Perish the thought of being on first name terms with your local bank manager! But it works and I am sure in time they will take significant market share and start to turn a profit.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on September 22, 2016, 11:17:59 PM
I am worried about stock market valuations.

Global markets have ignored the true effect of the UK leaving the European Union. There seems to trend away from Globalisation where over the last 40 years where countries have increasingly co-operated with each other both politically and economically. This has been replaced with a rise in popularity of political parties that harbour Nationalistic ideals, not only in the UK/mainland Europe but also in the US with our friend Mr Trump. The consequences for business of this are not good. Add to this the risks of there being a conflict between Russia and the West over Syria or one of the other former Soviet States certainly creates an additional risk that should not be ignored.

With this in mind, I have decided to take quite a defensive approach to my investments over the next year or so. I have sold all of my emerging market holdings in both Russia and India which have provided spectacular returns and replaced them with a dull old plain vanilla multi asset class fund called Troy that holds a large proportion of its money in gold/cash and the rest of the investments are in dull dividend paying stocks that are not as volatile as some of my other investments. I have also increased my allocation to gold in my portfolio overall to 15%. I am a big fan of inverse correlation meaning if the markets do end up collapsing everyone will start piling into gold which hopefully will push its price up further. Gold is seen as a safe haven asset. Of course I could be wrong and if I change my mind I will update this thread.

The proceeds to the ARM Holdings takeover came in this week, having re-aligned my portfolio as discussed above I didn't want to avoid possible opportunities that may exist in the tech sector. IOT and Robotic technologies are the buzz words for investors these days, and I was alerted to a AIM listed company called Blue Prism. After doing some research I decided to have a small punt (less than 1% of portfolio) on the stock which has already nearly doubled since flotation, I think it's an expensive stock but the company has huge upside potential. Hopefully it will be the next ARM holdings but you just never know.  


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: strak33 on September 23, 2016, 10:23:35 AM
Really enjoy reading any posts on here so thanks for contributions.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: strak33 on September 30, 2016, 10:26:51 AM
Big day for the banks coming up.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Doobs on September 30, 2016, 03:46:52 PM
Keep meaning to drop in for an update, so the ARM takeover will be completed by September and my SIPP account will be funded with the cash equivalent of £17 a share. I decided to sell half my holding last month, on the basis that the takeover might not happen, and that if that was the case it would give me the opportunity to buy in for a lower price. As things stand, I expect the takeover to proceed smoothly with no hitches.

Whilst ARM is a notable investment success for me, I am at pains to stress that I do not consider myself a good stock picker. Some of the profits I have made down the years have as much been down to luck rather than judgement. At present I have a strategy of putting 80% of my funds for SIPPs/ISA's into the hands of capable fund managers. Stocks I currently hold are Just Eat, Dixons, NCC Group, Purplebricks and Metro Bank.

Two funds I bought post Brexit are Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Fundsmith, both of which have increased over 10% since the fateful day so I am happy with that. More importantly both these funds have a record of providing solid returns over the longer term and are well respected in the financial world. I also like investing in technology shares and have parked some cash with the Allianz Technology Trust.

Before I go here's a few investment ideas for a Tikay style fund :).

Lafarge Holcim - Concrete Solutions company - Listed in Paris and Zurich
Bombadier - Train Manufacturer - Listed in Toronto
Kier Group - Property and Construction - London
Hornby  PLC :) -  Model Railways -  AIM - London

Ok I got bored after 4 companies, perhaps it's the subject material ;).  







I thnk Metro Bank could be a  nice long term hold.  I don't know a great deal about shares but as a challenger bank they are pretty decent in the Mortgage market.  They are changing lots of things slowly and they are positive changes so far.  If they become bolder and relax some of their rules they could be a big player in the market soon and that is likely to give them more exposure. 



Looks like a complete bag of bollocks to me.  A loss making bank at a huge premium to net assets.  Talks about a powerful AMAZE culture in the half year results.  Sounds impressive?  Nope, not to me either.

Ironically I have held Metro Bank since floatation, currently sitting on paper profits of 40%. Although we are only talking about 6 months compare the performance of MB with the "profitable" banks. Yes they pay nice dividends but over the last 10 years there hasn't been any capital appreciation.

Loss making companies share prices do appreciate and in my humble opinion, markets see them as "disruptor" in their sector. I have spent a lot of time engaging with Metro Bank over the last few years through business and socially, they are a proper bank with a culture that I can only describe as similar to the likes of John Lewis.

They offer a personalised service that we haven't seen from all the other high street banks for decades. Perish the thought of being on first name terms with your local bank manager! But it works and I am sure in time they will take significant market share and start to turn a profit.

I don't think Metrobank are offering anything much new.  All banks uses to be like that and they moved away from it for a reason.  So the question is can Metrobank do what banks did before, but manage to make enough to more than cover costs. And then can it grow at the huge growth rate needed to justify their lofty valuation against the net assets (the market cap is over 5x the value of assets, which is miles away from traditional banks, and some of that is goodwill). 

It really worries me that they aren't even making money right now.  The other banks profits are held back by huge legacy issues from PPI, other misselling, large employee/pension costs and legacy bad debts, yet some of them still make money.  I know Metrobank have big start up costs, but they have been going a few years now, and the last few years has been pretty favourable since the financial crisis.  Now I could be more confident if the director's spent their time discussing the financials and how they are going to make it work, but their statements are just loaded with corporate bullshit.  Sorry, but I'd far rather to see something more weighty than this if I am going to pay more than 500% of the underlying value for your assets.   

Anyway we've been here before, http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=46283.0 (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=46283.0).  Desire fell to 10p or so, got merged into FOGL., lost some more and ended up part of Rockhopper.  I could find any number of promising growth stock threads on the old boards at fool.co.uk from back in the day.  So many have them just disappeared to dust.

I don't think Metrobank isn't going to end up like Desire did, and they aren't far off profitability, but they need to be far more than just profitable for me to pay that premium to assets. 

Sure some growth stocks will fulfill their promises, but give me profits/dividends any day. 



Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on October 03, 2016, 11:25:27 AM
Bit of time today so updated this with current position - still holding all the shares I bought last year - boohoo continues to be pretty exceptional with recent buy notes suggesting a £1.20 target

The other 4 are more or less a wash which is pretty poor picking with the fairly bullish market since Brexit.

Boohoo covers up a lot of sins so happy overall

(http://i.imgur.com/ohQwICr.jpg)


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: tikay on October 03, 2016, 11:40:08 AM
Bit of time today so updated this with current position - still holding all the shares I bought last year - boohoo continues to be pretty exceptional with recent buy notes suggesting a £1.20 target

The other 4 are more or less a wash which is pretty poor picking with the fairly bullish market since Brexit.

Boohoo covers up a lot of sins so happy overall

(http://i.imgur.com/ohQwICr.jpg)

Are boohoo connected in any way, perhaps as a legacy, with the internet outfit boo.com, which went busto in spectacular style around 10 years ago? There was a stunning book about them, if you enjoy that sort of thing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boo.com



 



Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on October 03, 2016, 11:48:17 AM
Pretty sure they're not but had never made that link before in terms of name and industry.. worried now :-)


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: tikay on October 03, 2016, 12:52:37 PM
Pretty sure they're not but had never made that link before in terms of name and industry.. worried now :-)

Ha, you'll be fine, you run like Midas.

It's just odd that two near identical business models (Internet, Fashion) have such similar trading names.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on October 05, 2016, 11:40:14 AM

Dumped my BP shares for a small profit.  Have gone into Smiths Group (SMIN) at 958.

Anyone have a good source of accurate and up to date basic info on companies?  For example if you look at "Dividend Cover", bottom of the right hand column, for BP it says 2.83 which is bollocks.  

http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/quote/BP.

Don't know if this is the DM just not updating or AJBell.  

Missed this first time round or don't  remember it. I work for Smiths Group, no shares. You've had a really good run with these with at that buy price. No secret that SMIN will be massive beneficiaries of the huge devaluation in Sterling against the dollar. Be interesting to see how far they go.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: tikay on October 05, 2016, 11:53:27 AM

Dumped my BP shares for a small profit.  Have gone into Smiths Group (SMIN) at 958.

Anyone have a good source of accurate and up to date basic info on companies?  For example if you look at "Dividend Cover", bottom of the right hand column, for BP it says 2.83 which is bollocks.  

http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/quote/BP.

Don't know if this is the DM just not updating or AJBell.  

Missed this first time round or don't  remember it. I work for Smiths Group, no shares. You've had a really good run with these with at that buy price. No secret that SMIN will be massive beneficiaries of the huge devaluation in Sterling against the dollar. Be interesting to see how far they go.

You still working, Glenn? Good Lord, assumed you had retired long ago.

Love to see our Senior Citizens keeping busy.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on October 05, 2016, 12:05:31 PM

Dumped my BP shares for a small profit.  Have gone into Smiths Group (SMIN) at 958.

Anyone have a good source of accurate and up to date basic info on companies?  For example if you look at "Dividend Cover", bottom of the right hand column, for BP it says 2.83 which is bollocks.  

http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/quote/BP.

Don't know if this is the DM just not updating or AJBell.  

Missed this first time round or don't  remember it. I work for Smiths Group, no shares. You've had a really good run with these with at that buy price. No secret that SMIN will be massive beneficiaries of the huge devaluation in Sterling against the dollar. Be interesting to see how far they go.

You still working, Glenn? Good Lord, assumed you had retired long ago.

Love to see our Senior Citizens keeping busy.

Ha, tap-in but made me laugh.

On an unrelated note Boohoo almost reached the £1.20 buy note target I mentioned 2, yes 2 days ago. Another 5 large in my sky and I'm thinking of becoming a capitalist


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Woodsey on October 09, 2016, 11:21:14 AM
Didn't think to ask on here before and not sure if I will get an answer, but one of my pensions is with Aviva and I've been fiddling around with which funds my dosh is invested in recently. Anyone got any informed reason why some of my cash should be in any particular fund?


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on October 09, 2016, 06:33:21 PM
Didn't think to ask on here before and not sure if I will get an answer, but one of my pensions is with Aviva and I've been fiddling around with which funds my dosh is invested in recently. Anyone got any informed reason why some of my cash should be in any particular fund?

Hi Woodsey, in another life I used to be an IFA and recommended AVIVA for company pension plans a few years back. The thing is with AVIVA, they have many types of funds depending on the name of the pension plan you took out. So really the first question is what is the name of your product.

Secondly, although a lot of people offer "tips" on what would be the best funds to invest in going forward you should really take it all with a pinch of salt and do your own research in my opinion. There are many variables such as your age, investment goals, attitude to risk and your family circumstances that determine what would be a suitable investment strategy. 

AVIVA have some information on their website describing risk ratings, what they mean and a "fund centre" outlining the funds available for investment.

http://www.aviva.co.uk/retirement/fund-centre/risk-ratings.html

http://www.fundslibrary.co.uk/FundsLibrary.BrandedTools/AvivaConsumer/FundCentral#Price%3APension.AvivaConsumer%3A

You will see from the funds library how many different types of pensions they have ! You need to ascertain which "series number" your product falls under to get an idea of the available funds.

Hope this helps.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on October 09, 2016, 06:39:21 PM
Keep meaning to drop in for an update, so the ARM takeover will be completed by September and my SIPP account will be funded with the cash equivalent of £17 a share. I decided to sell half my holding last month, on the basis that the takeover might not happen, and that if that was the case it would give me the opportunity to buy in for a lower price. As things stand, I expect the takeover to proceed smoothly with no hitches.

Whilst ARM is a notable investment success for me, I am at pains to stress that I do not consider myself a good stock picker. Some of the profits I have made down the years have as much been down to luck rather than judgement. At present I have a strategy of putting 80% of my funds for SIPPs/ISA's into the hands of capable fund managers. Stocks I currently hold are Just Eat, Dixons, NCC Group, Purplebricks and Metro Bank.

Two funds I bought post Brexit are Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Fundsmith, both of which have increased over 10% since the fateful day so I am happy with that. More importantly both these funds have a record of providing solid returns over the longer term and are well respected in the financial world. I also like investing in technology shares and have parked some cash with the Allianz Technology Trust.

Before I go here's a few investment ideas for a Tikay style fund :).

Lafarge Holcim - Concrete Solutions company - Listed in Paris and Zurich
Bombadier - Train Manufacturer - Listed in Toronto
Kier Group - Property and Construction - London
Hornby  PLC :) -  Model Railways -  AIM - London

Ok I got bored after 4 companies, perhaps it's the subject material ;).  







I thnk Metro Bank could be a  nice long term hold.  I don't know a great deal about shares but as a challenger bank they are pretty decent in the Mortgage market.  They are changing lots of things slowly and they are positive changes so far.  If they become bolder and relax some of their rules they could be a big player in the market soon and that is likely to give them more exposure. 



Looks like a complete bag of bollocks to me.  A loss making bank at a huge premium to net assets.  Talks about a powerful AMAZE culture in the half year results.  Sounds impressive?  Nope, not to me either.

Ironically I have held Metro Bank since floatation, currently sitting on paper profits of 40%. Although we are only talking about 6 months compare the performance of MB with the "profitable" banks. Yes they pay nice dividends but over the last 10 years there hasn't been any capital appreciation.

Loss making companies share prices do appreciate and in my humble opinion, markets see them as "disruptor" in their sector. I have spent a lot of time engaging with Metro Bank over the last few years through business and socially, they are a proper bank with a culture that I can only describe as similar to the likes of John Lewis.

They offer a personalised service that we haven't seen from all the other high street banks for decades. Perish the thought of being on first name terms with your local bank manager! But it works and I am sure in time they will take significant market share and start to turn a profit.

I don't think Metrobank are offering anything much new.  All banks uses to be like that and they moved away from it for a reason.  So the question is can Metrobank do what banks did before, but manage to make enough to more than cover costs. And then can it grow at the huge growth rate needed to justify their lofty valuation against the net assets (the market cap is over 5x the value of assets, which is miles away from traditional banks, and some of that is goodwill). 

It really worries me that they aren't even making money right now.  The other banks profits are held back by huge legacy issues from PPI, other misselling, large employee/pension costs and legacy bad debts, yet some of them still make money.  I know Metrobank have big start up costs, but they have been going a few years now, and the last few years has been pretty favourable since the financial crisis.  Now I could be more confident if the director's spent their time discussing the financials and how they are going to make it work, but their statements are just loaded with corporate bullshit.  Sorry, but I'd far rather to see something more weighty than this if I am going to pay more than 500% of the underlying value for your assets.   

Anyway we've been here before, http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=46283.0 (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=46283.0).  Desire fell to 10p or so, got merged into FOGL., lost some more and ended up part of Rockhopper.  I could find any number of promising growth stock threads on the old boards at fool.co.uk from back in the day.  So many have them just disappeared to dust.

I don't think Metrobank isn't going to end up like Desire did, and they aren't far off profitability, but they need to be far more than just profitable for me to pay that premium to assets. 

Sure some growth stocks will fulfill their promises, but give me profits/dividends any day. 



Growth while you accumulate, Dividends when you need an income is what my investment mantra is. With regards to Metro Bank, they form less than 1% of my portfolio so if they do not match their potential then I won't be kept awake at night! Performance wise they are way ahead of the other banks on performance YTD.

I still have a sizeable amount of my portfolio in Gold, not too concerned about the falls this week a lot of the downside was diluted by the pound collapsing again. Worrying times for the country at the moment, all the fundamentals suggest that we have weathered the brexit storm. when I really believe we won't feel the true impact until next year.l


 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on October 19, 2016, 09:17:46 AM
Bit of time today so updated this with current position - still holding all the shares I bought last year - boohoo continues to be pretty exceptional with recent buy notes suggesting a £1.20 target

The other 4 are more or less a wash which is pretty poor picking with the fairly bullish market since Brexit.

Boohoo covers up a lot of sins so happy overall

(http://i.imgur.com/ohQwICr.jpg)

Solid returns there well played. As you have made significant profits in what is a concentrated portfolio are you considering spreading risk by re-investing some of the proceeds into other companies or funds?


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on October 19, 2016, 06:45:10 PM
I saw yr note this morning and was thinking if I really wanted to change anything and concluded that I was pretty happy to let things run. Not overly keen on researching funds and have small amount in some fidelity funds via another pension.

Despite my slight aversion to funds, on the basis that spreading risk tends to also limit the upside, the funds I chose, all Asian, have actually done pretty well > 11% growth in the last6 months but less than I've seen some colleagues achieve.

No real time to research other stocks so leave it were my thoughts- wish I'd had a different thought after Laird wiped out around 7k of the profits today :-)


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on October 20, 2016, 02:04:21 PM
I saw yr note this morning and was thinking if I really wanted to change anything and concluded that I was pretty happy to let things run. Not overly keen on researching funds and have small amount in some fidelity funds via another pension.

Despite my slight aversion to funds, on the basis that spreading risk tends to also limit the upside, the funds I chose, all Asian, have actually done pretty well > 11% growth in the last6 months but less than I've seen some colleagues achieve.

No real time to research other stocks so leave it were my thoughts- wish I'd had a different thought after Laird wiped out around 7k of the profits today :-)

I am invested in the following Asian funds, which have done very well this year.

Legg Mason Japan +40% since Jan
Jupiter India +50% since Jan
Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Leaders +35% since Jan
Baille Gifford Shin Nippon (Japan) + 8% since September

In fact most of the funds I have picked this year are in positive territory. It's a shame some of my shares have bombed out including NCC and Dixons Group.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: tikay on October 20, 2016, 02:43:16 PM
I saw yr note this morning and was thinking if I really wanted to change anything and concluded that I was pretty happy to let things run. Not overly keen on researching funds and have small amount in some fidelity funds via another pension.

Despite my slight aversion to funds, on the basis that spreading risk tends to also limit the upside, the funds I chose, all Asian, have actually done pretty well > 11% growth in the last6 months but less than I've seen some colleagues achieve.

No real time to research other stocks so leave it were my thoughts- wish I'd had a different thought after Laird wiped out around 7k of the profits today :-)

I am invested in the following Asian funds, which have done very well this year.

Legg Mason Japan +40% since Jan
Jupiter India +50% since Jan
Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Leaders +35% since Jan
Baille Gifford Shin Nippon (Japan) + 8% since September

In fact most of the funds I have picked this year are in positive territory. It's a shame some of my shares have bombed out including NCC and Dixons Group.

Pardon my off-topic interruption, but I did enjoy that Post you made earlier today, elsewhere. Unforch, things being what they are, I could not really reply, or give it the "+1" thing.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on October 20, 2016, 03:39:31 PM
I saw yr note this morning and was thinking if I really wanted to change anything and concluded that I was pretty happy to let things run. Not overly keen on researching funds and have small amount in some fidelity funds via another pension.

Despite my slight aversion to funds, on the basis that spreading risk tends to also limit the upside, the funds I chose, all Asian, have actually done pretty well > 11% growth in the last6 months but less than I've seen some colleagues achieve.

No real time to research other stocks so leave it were my thoughts- wish I'd had a different thought after Laird wiped out around 7k of the profits today :-)

I am invested in the following Asian funds, which have done very well this year.

Legg Mason Japan +40% since Jan
Jupiter India +50% since Jan
Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Leaders +35% since Jan
Baille Gifford Shin Nippon (Japan) + 8% since September

In fact most of the funds I have picked this year are in positive territory. It's a shame some of my shares have bombed out including NCC and Dixons Group.

Pardon my off-topic interruption, but I did enjoy that Post you made earlier today, elsewhere. Unforch, things being what they are, I could not really reply, or give it the "+1" thing.

I understand Tikay.

You have to be neutral on such matters for obvious reasons. Fortunately for me, I can say what I like within reason :).

Love the banter with Phil over there. I haven't seen him for ages need to catch up with him soon. He is the second sky reg that I have previously worked with.



Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: tikay on October 20, 2016, 03:43:58 PM
I saw yr note this morning and was thinking if I really wanted to change anything and concluded that I was pretty happy to let things run. Not overly keen on researching funds and have small amount in some fidelity funds via another pension.

Despite my slight aversion to funds, on the basis that spreading risk tends to also limit the upside, the funds I chose, all Asian, have actually done pretty well > 11% growth in the last6 months but less than I've seen some colleagues achieve.

No real time to research other stocks so leave it were my thoughts- wish I'd had a different thought after Laird wiped out around 7k of the profits today :-)

I am invested in the following Asian funds, which have done very well this year.

Legg Mason Japan +40% since Jan
Jupiter India +50% since Jan
Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Leaders +35% since Jan
Baille Gifford Shin Nippon (Japan) + 8% since September

In fact most of the funds I have picked this year are in positive territory. It's a shame some of my shares have bombed out including NCC and Dixons Group.

Pardon my off-topic interruption, but I did enjoy that Post you made earlier today, elsewhere. Unforch, things being what they are, I could not really reply, or give it the "+1" thing.

I understand Tikay.

You have to be neutral on such matters for obvious reasons. Fortunately for me, I can say what I like within reason :).

Love the banter with Phil over there. I haven't seen him for ages need to catch up with him soon. He is the second sky reg that I have previously worked with.



EssexPhil?

Lovely chap, decent player, too. Lives in Frinton on Sea I believe. Proper posh, that.

I "hosted" him in Vegas this year. Fun times.

Anyway, apologies to all for the interruption.

As you were.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on October 20, 2016, 04:35:45 PM
I saw yr note this morning and was thinking if I really wanted to change anything and concluded that I was pretty happy to let things run. Not overly keen on researching funds and have small amount in some fidelity funds via another pension.

Despite my slight aversion to funds, on the basis that spreading risk tends to also limit the upside, the funds I chose, all Asian, have actually done pretty well > 11% growth in the last6 months but less than I've seen some colleagues achieve.

No real time to research other stocks so leave it were my thoughts- wish I'd had a different thought after Laird wiped out around 7k of the profits today :-)

I am invested in the following Asian funds, which have done very well this year.

Legg Mason Japan +40% since Jan
Jupiter India +50% since Jan
Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Leaders +35% since Jan
Baille Gifford Shin Nippon (Japan) + 8% since September

In fact most of the funds I have picked this year are in positive territory. It's a shame some of my shares have bombed out including NCC and Dixons Group.

Pardon my off-topic interruption, but I did enjoy that Post you made earlier today, elsewhere. Unforch, things being what they are, I could not really reply, or give it the "+1" thing.

I understand Tikay.

You have to be neutral on such matters for obvious reasons. Fortunately for me, I can say what I like within reason :).

Love the banter with Phil over there. I haven't seen him for ages need to catch up with him soon. He is the second sky reg that I have previously worked with.



EssexPhil?

Lovely chap, decent player, too. Lives in Frinton on Sea I believe. Proper posh, that.

I "hosted" him in Vegas this year. Fun times.

Anyway, apologies to all for the interruption.

As you were.

Yep that's the man. He used to be a standup comedian, heaven knows how ............his jokes are awful!


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: PokerBroker on October 25, 2016, 02:57:15 PM
Question for the more initiated. 

My mrs has  a share save option with esure and she has £3600 locked in at a share price of £1.94 she has options of cashing out at the value of the shares just now, meaning she makes an additional £1700 or so.

Esure has recently announced a de-merger of GoCompare believe that is to happen in November. 

Price has steadily dropped over the last few weeks.  But share price much more favourable than earlier in the year. 

Would you hold onto the shares and ride this out or sell and take the £1700 profit.

Will the number of shares that get sold following the end of this particular share save have and impact on share price, the consensus amongst many of her colleagues is they are cashing out. 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: DMorgan on October 25, 2016, 03:54:19 PM
A pretty big factor in my decision in that spot would be whether or not it is the firm/CEO buying back the shares of those that wish to sell


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: doubleup on October 25, 2016, 04:07:54 PM

To be pedantic IIRC the way sharesave works is that you either get your money back or your shares THEN if you have the shares you can sell them immediately (or sell some keep some).  Don't think that the company can buy them back directly.

As they are only options until the point of purchase, there shouldn't be a negative effect ie shares are being bought and then sold or kept on the same day (though there might be some link with maturing options and share price, I suppose).

As far as keeping is concerned, it really depends on how much she has tied up in this investment in comparison to overall savings - eggs/basket.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: DMorgan on October 25, 2016, 04:52:59 PM
Ok I get it, so over the term that she has been paying into the scheme she gets the price of £1.94 so with £3600 paid in that comes to 1856 shares that are worth ~£5300 at todays price of £2.86

So to lock in the £3600 paid in you'd need to take the option and sell 1,259 shares and the question is what to do with the remaining 597 shares that at todays price are worth £1700

(That was probably obvious to the sharps, I'm thinking out loud :P)

Depends largely on your risk appetite vs personal financial position. With this Brexit business we're probably going to be entering a period of general stock price volatility but I can't find anything to suggest that esure does much business outside the UK so probably not really a factor in this case. You're pretty well insulated in that its going to take one hell of a collapse in the stock price for you to actually lose much of that extra £1700. If the cash is going to sit in a low interest savings account then I would strongly consider just keeping them.

If you haven't maxed your ISA allowance then get them into a stocks and shares ISA


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: PokerBroker on October 25, 2016, 04:56:42 PM

To be pedantic IIRC the way sharesave works is that you either get your money back or your shares THEN if you have the shares you can sell them immediately (or sell some keep some).  Don't think that the company can buy them back directly.

As they are only options until the point of purchase, there shouldn't be a negative effect ie shares are being bought and then sold or kept on the same day (though there might be some link with maturing options and share price, I suppose).

As far as keeping is concerned, it really depends on how much she has tied up in this investment in comparison to overall savings - eggs/basket.


Thanks, this would be at this moment in time the vast majority of her savings.  They took a bit of a dunt since buying a house.  

I'd expect we are likely to be debt free by March/April time and will only be servicing the mortgage and can then replenish the savings.  

Either way it's not going to cause massive hardship.  We toyed with the idea of using the share money for a new kitchen that will be money well spent.  


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: DMorgan on October 25, 2016, 05:11:48 PM
Question about balance sheets. Where does this liabilities number come from if borrowings and other current liabilities are n/a?

(https://i.gyazo.com/82c2b99b314899a5be1490113a4c8fd8.png)


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on October 25, 2016, 07:33:05 PM
Question about balance sheets. Where does this liabilities number come from if borrowings and other current liabilities are n/a?

(https://i.gyazo.com/82c2b99b314899a5be1490113a4c8fd8.png)

Debentures perhaps ?


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: doubleup on October 25, 2016, 08:55:17 PM

It varies year to year so as an insurance company it might be something to do with claims?


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: 4KSuited on October 25, 2016, 08:58:32 PM

It varies year to year so as an insurance company it might be something to do with claims?

Yes; likely to be an estimate of their claims exposure.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Doobs on October 25, 2016, 09:13:00 PM
Question about balance sheets. Where does this liabilities number come from if borrowings and other current liabilities are n/a?

(https://i.gyazo.com/82c2b99b314899a5be1490113a4c8fd8.png)

Don't bother with that.  It is clearly a waste of time as it could well be any old gibberish.

Get the real report and accounts from the esure website.  In the accounts the liabilities will be split by type.  Then there are usually some notes to the accounts which will explain some of it.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Doobs on October 25, 2016, 09:17:19 PM

To be pedantic IIRC the way sharesave works is that you either get your money back or your shares THEN if you have the shares you can sell them immediately (or sell some keep some).  Don't think that the company can buy them back directly.

As they are only options until the point of purchase, there shouldn't be a negative effect ie shares are being bought and then sold or kept on the same day (though there might be some link with maturing options and share price, I suppose).

As far as keeping is concerned, it really depends on how much she has tied up in this investment in comparison to overall savings - eggs/basket.


Thanks, this would be at this moment in time the vast majority of her savings.  They took a bit of a dunt since buying a house.  

I'd expect we are likely to be debt free by March/April time and will only be servicing the mortgage and can then replenish the savings.  

Either way it's not going to cause massive hardship.  We toyed with the idea of using the share money for a new kitchen that will be money well spent.  

If you had £5000 would you put it all in esure shares?  If not then why would you not sell them?  Obviously wait for the bonus first.

Fwiw money for holiday, booze, new car is going to be way better than a new kitchen.  Your missus will disagree.

I'd happily pay off any debt first though.  No point in paying interest when you don't need to. 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: DMorgan on October 26, 2016, 12:47:32 AM
Don't bother with that.  It is clearly a waste of time as it could well be any old gibberish.

Get the real report and accounts from the esure website.  In the accounts the liabilities will be split by type.  Then there are usually some notes to the accounts which will explain some of it.

Thanks for making that so clear ;)


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Woodsey on October 26, 2016, 12:53:45 AM

To be pedantic IIRC the way sharesave works is that you either get your money back or your shares THEN if you have the shares you can sell them immediately (or sell some keep some).  Don't think that the company can buy them back directly.

As they are only options until the point of purchase, there shouldn't be a negative effect ie shares are being bought and then sold or kept on the same day (though there might be some link with maturing options and share price, I suppose).

As far as keeping is concerned, it really depends on how much she has tied up in this investment in comparison to overall savings - eggs/basket.


Thanks, this would be at this moment in time the vast majority of her savings.  They took a bit of a dunt since buying a house.  

I'd expect we are likely to be debt free by March/April time and will only be servicing the mortgage and can then replenish the savings.  

Either way it's not going to cause massive hardship.  We toyed with the idea of using the share money for a new kitchen that will be money well spent.  

If you had £5000 would you put it all in esure shares?  If not then why would you not sell them?  Obviously wait for the bonus first.

Fwiw money for holiday, booze, new car is going to be way better than a new kitchen.  Your missus will disagree.

I'd happily pay off any debt first though.  No point in paying interest when you don't need to.  

Well you say that, but with interest at an all time low I think there are better options these days that sweating paying off debt first. Sure in normal times that is the best option but we aren't in normal times....


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Doobs on October 26, 2016, 09:05:43 AM

To be pedantic IIRC the way sharesave works is that you either get your money back or your shares THEN if you have the shares you can sell them immediately (or sell some keep some).  Don't think that the company can buy them back directly.

As they are only options until the point of purchase, there shouldn't be a negative effect ie shares are being bought and then sold or kept on the same day (though there might be some link with maturing options and share price, I suppose).

As far as keeping is concerned, it really depends on how much she has tied up in this investment in comparison to overall savings - eggs/basket.


Thanks, this would be at this moment in time the vast majority of her savings.  They took a bit of a dunt since buying a house.  

I'd expect we are likely to be debt free by March/April time and will only be servicing the mortgage and can then replenish the savings.  

Either way it's not going to cause massive hardship.  We toyed with the idea of using the share money for a new kitchen that will be money well spent.  

If you had £5000 would you put it all in esure shares?  If not then why would you not sell them?  Obviously wait for the bonus first.

Fwiw money for holiday, booze, new car is going to be way better than a new kitchen.  Your missus will disagree.

I'd happily pay off any debt first though.  No point in paying interest when you don't need to.  

Well you say that, but with interest at an all time low I think there are better options these days that sweating paying off debt first. Sure in normal times that is the best option but we aren't in normal times....

Well it depends how much interest you are paying on the debt.  Even though base rates are at an all time low that doesn't mean debt interest is.  When I was younger base rates were much much higher and typical APRs were 20% or so on loans and credit cards.  Now base rates are tiny and typical APRs can be absolutely ludicrous. 

I don't know what you mean by normal times though.  There isn't going to be any reversion to mean, whatever that is.   I don't think there was ever a time where it was a good idea to hold all your savings in one share.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Doobs on October 26, 2016, 09:12:36 AM
Don't bother with that.  It is clearly a waste of time as it could well be any old gibberish.

Get the real report and accounts from the esure website.  In the accounts the liabilities will be split by type.  Then there are usually some notes to the accounts which will explain some of it.

Thanks for making that so clear ;)

I looked at the real report and accounts and it as pretty hard to tally the figures to the summary in your picture.  I just think it is always sensible to look at the source figures rather than the summary on a financial website.  Not only does it stop glitches from the financial website setting the feed wrong then you can usually see why the company made 500 million this year rather than 100 million.  Of course reports and accounts cam be full of meaningless gibberish too. ;)



Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: doubleup on November 03, 2016, 08:53:50 PM
Question for the more initiated. 

My mrs has  a share save option with esure and she has £3600 locked in at a share price of £1.94 she has options of cashing out at the value of the shares just now, meaning she makes an additional £1700 or so.

Esure has recently announced a de-merger of GoCompare believe that is to happen in November. 

Price has steadily dropped over the last few weeks.  But share price much more favourable than earlier in the year. 

Would you hold onto the shares and ride this out or sell and take the £1700 profit.

Will the number of shares that get sold following the end of this particular share save have and impact on share price, the consensus amongst many of her colleagues is they are cashing out. 

ooops

http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/quote/ESUR

Was the option adjusted for the demerger?  They usually are.  I had one that was reduced because of a rights issue.



Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: PokerBroker on November 04, 2016, 02:46:25 AM
Got awarded the same number of GoCompare shares as esure Shares. 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on November 11, 2016, 05:23:30 AM
So my bet on gold has seriously unravelled in the last 2 days alone. Who would have thought a Trump victory would have stock markets rallying and commodities tanking.

Analysing things a bit closer, it's not surprising really. Trump wants to spend serious money on infrastructure projects, throw out Obamacare and lower taxes for US Corporates amongst other things. Clinton was seen as a threat to Biotech/Pharma because she wanted to attack the pricing of their drugs and therefore, over the last few days these stocks have outperformed.

I bought an Investment Trust called Biotech Growth, it has a strong long term track record. Biotech stocks have had a rough year, so I am hoping the change in administration in the US will give the sector a boost. On the subject of Investment Trusts I have been buying these as opposed to OEICS/Unit Trusts because the charges on Investment Trusts are generally lower. Also with Hargreaves Lansdown there is a cap on charges on IT's e £200 per annum. Even on a modest portfolio of around £50k that's a saving of around £300 over traditional funds. If you think of the compounding effect of these charges over several years, it makes a huge difference to performance.

On the shares front, and carrying on the Trump business friendly theme I bought into the Swiss Bank UBS. Their shares have fallen 75% over the last ten years in what has been a pretty unloved sector, but I think Trump will remove a lot of the red tape and shackles banks have had to deal with since the financial crisis. Yesterday, the shares surged 10% but I only caught the back end of this rise by the time I bought in. The other bank I bought Metro Bank is now sitting up 43% on the price paid, so very happy with that.

The thing is with investing, human nature can affect our decision making. I lost a few thousand quid on my gold holdings over the last two days, it's a bit unnerving seeing that happen. it can lead to knee jerk decisions but my conviction with gold is that it will in time hit $2000 an ounce and, therefore, I will ride out the turbulence.

Going back to Trump, with the trillions he is going to spend on the US infrastructure, the sector could well become a very lucrative/interesting place to be over the next few years. I just hope this toned down post election version of Trump continue. If he starts throwing punches at China in the form of tariffs then Global stock markets will not like that. That will be extremely dangerous for a post brexit Britain if every major/emerging economy pulls up the drawbridge and starts protecting their domestic companies.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Rupert on November 14, 2016, 06:44:52 AM
Beximco Pharmaceutical is a Bangladeshi based company that has recently received US FDA approval. The company is pretty unamazing other than that, however their London GDRs trade at around a 60% discount to their Bangladeshi price. I don't forsee any catalyst for this gap to close (short selling on the Bangladeshi exchange is not allowed) but in the meantime you get a pretty decent dividend yield (it's important for poor countries companies to pay dividends to give themselves credibility in the quality of their earnings) and a cheap price. They are the only Bangladeshi GDR listed in London. Plenty of Egyptian, Indian, Russian, and Korean GDRs trade at between a 20-30% discount and a small premium. Many trade close to the spot price of their native country.

LinkedIn is an online social media website that is suitable for employers and employees for recruitment and networking purposes. Microsoft have had an offer accepted to purchase LinkedIn at $196 a share. The merger is only waiting for the EU commission to accept it having had acceptance already in USA, Canada, and Brazil. It is extremely rare for a merger accepted in the USA to be denied by the EU. A company called SalesForce who also tried to acquire LinkedIn has objected to the merger, blah blah blah something about lack of innovation. There is no monopoly on user job data. Facebook could easily compete, Google could easily compete, hell even Amazon could get in that space if they wanted. There are numerous recruitment websites that could also step up - indeed being the UKs biggest, for example. I bought in cheaper, but the current price is $191.44 with the EU to decide between 22nd November and 10 days after which offers a very nice annualised return assuming all goes well.

Disclosure: long LON:BXP NYSE:LNKD


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Rupert on November 16, 2016, 06:33:57 PM
Update:

BXP posted their first quarter results (http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/BXP/13034790.html) on Tuesday and are up 12% since then. The spread has come in somewhat, closing at 81.7 Taka in Dhaka (http://www.dsebd.org/displayCompany.php?name=BXPHARMA) today (£0.834) and £0.5168 in London representing a 38% discount. They remain my biggest holding.

Microsoft offered concessions to EU regulators today (https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=linkedin+microsoft&btnG=Google+Search&tbm=nws). The exact details are private, but it seems clear they are willing to jump through any hoops required to make the deal happen. LNKD is up to $191.36 which still offers a 2.4% spread on the $196 accepted offer. The commission put back the deadline to 6th December. EU updates are here (http://ec.europa.eu/competition/elojade/isef/index.cfm?fuseaction=dsp_merger_by_date). Solving 191.36 * [(1+x)^(20/365)] = 196 for x gives an annualised return over the 20 days of 54.8% if the merger completes. I remain a holder, the deal seemed exceptionally likely before, and even more so now.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: doubleup on November 17, 2016, 02:35:09 PM

re Beximco - isn't the LSE spread huge?  Looks like 10%.

Not disagreeing with your analysis just think that these kind of buys surely have to be very long term, probably hoping for a takeover?


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: doubleup on November 17, 2016, 05:12:56 PM

re spreads just by coincidence one of my holdings is vectura and when I saw the price leapt today I was wheeeee!  Then looked at the spread




 ;bigadz;


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Rupert on November 17, 2016, 09:03:28 PM
Ya it's pretty rough and non-trivial. You can put bids/offers in to cross the spread a bit though, have to have some patience in finding someone. It's quite a bit less attractive than it was from the 60% discount but I'm not going to sell until it's nearer 20-30% from the Bangladeshi price.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on January 09, 2017, 10:05:28 AM
Time to refresh this thread, it's 2017 and last year was a roller coaster on the markets to say the least! The last two months of 2016 was a disaster for my portfolio as the plummeting price of gold seriously weighed on the overall performance of my portfolio. I ended up around 10% for the year when at one stage it looked like I might touch 20%.

Not sure if I mentioned this, I was given a share tip last autumn for an AIM listed company called Blue Prism. They are a pre eminent provider of automated robotic technology. Robotics along with AI is tipped to be the next big thing in technology. Well I bought into the company with two tranches of £1k @ 257 and 390. The shares sit at just under £5 now, having been issued at £1.30 early last year. Very strong performance but probably at levels where the share price will come under pressure after perhaps rising further than it should.

Going forward, my theme for this year is continuing to back technology stocks. My Apple shares are up 40% and I am going to hold them for the longer term especially given the rumours about them producing an automated car. The brand is so strong that I can see this being the new driver for growth in the company.

I also bought back into Russia through a JP Morgan fund at the back end of last year. The "Trump" effect has seen the fund increase 14% in two months. How long will the honeymoon last between Trump and Putin who knows, but personally I think Putin is taking Trump for a fool. If Trump finally figures this out, the effect of Russian equities will be interesting to note.

I am also trying to make sure I don't over diversify and hold less funds/shares. I still have around 15 funds/IT's but if possible I will try and trim this down to 12 holdings. My rule of having no more than 20% of my portfolio in individual shares will continue. I don't trust myself with the discipline required to manage a portfolio exclusively of stocks. Human mindset (just like poker!) does come into holding volatile investments, I want to be an investor not a trader.

 

 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Rupert on January 10, 2017, 05:12:09 AM
I sold 1/3 of my BXP position at 61p as the spread has closed to 29% and the position was getting huge. I sold my LNKD position at $195.92 as well.

Alpha Vulture has another nice AIM idea which I may buy into: https://alphavulture.com/2017/01/09/tejoori-limited-liquidating-with-a-40-discount-to-nav/


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Doobs on January 10, 2017, 11:33:18 PM
I know someone was going on about metrobank earlier this year.  I did a google earlier to see how they were doing any came up with a whole bunch of scary detail.

Much of it is behind the FT paywall, so I will summarise.  Vernon Hill was sacked from Commerce bank.  He has sued twice for a severence package and failed to get one.  He was stopped from becoming chairman twice by the FSA. 

http://news.sky.com/story/exclusive-fsa-blocks-new-metro-bank-chair-10461217 (http://news.sky.com/story/exclusive-fsa-blocks-new-metro-bank-chair-10461217)

No comment is given by the FSA/PRA, but is clear from the above and other articles that the US regulator wasn't willing to let him remain at Commerce either.

FT Alphaville has been busy too.  Allegedly Vernon Hill had way too many business relationships between members of his family and Commerce and between the bank and those in power. 

In addition Vernon Hill Commerce paid large sums to his wife's company to design Commerce bank premises.  It appears that Metro bank has continued this piece of bad business practice and had paid Shirley Hill's company, InterArch, £11m at the last count for branding etc (presumably a bigger sum by now).

If you have a FT subscription, there really is a mass of red flags around the share.



Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: tikay on January 11, 2017, 02:48:35 PM

Meanwhile, share prices in London have been on a proper roll of late - 11 winning sessions on the bounce - a record in itself - & the last 9 have all been record closing highs.

Guess that means a correction is just around the corner.



Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: EvilPie on January 11, 2017, 04:35:01 PM

Meanwhile, share prices in London have been on a proper roll of late - 11 winning sessions on the bounce - a record in itself - & the last 9 have all been record closing highs.

Guess that means a correction is just around the corner.



Perhaps this was the correction?

Reading this thread always makes me want to invest a few quid but I find it a bit scary. Strange really when you consider I'll happily spew a few grand a year at roulette and blackjack without batting an eyelid.

I currently have a reasonable chunk in a pension fund that's just shouting at me to get invested somewhere but I never seem to have to balls to pull the trigger. I can see me just leaving it sat in a bank account earning a steady 1% or so (effectively devaluing I know).

Any advice for a newcomer who isn't going to study the markets but might want to dip their toes in the water?



Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Eck on January 11, 2017, 07:00:29 PM

Meanwhile, share prices in London have been on a proper roll of late - 11 winning sessions on the bounce - a record in itself - & the last 9 have all been record closing highs.

Guess that means a correction is just around the corner.



Perhaps this was the correction?

Reading this thread always makes me want to invest a few quid but I find it a bit scary. Strange really when you consider I'll happily spew a few grand a year at roulette and blackjack without batting an eyelid.

I currently have a reasonable chunk in a pension fund that's just shouting at me to get invested somewhere but I never seem to have to balls to pull the trigger. I can see me just leaving it sat in a bank account earning a steady 1% or so (effectively devaluing I know).

Any advice for a newcomer who isn't going to study the markets but might want to dip their toes in the water?



Pass line with max odds. You're welcome  ;hattip;


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Karabiner on January 12, 2017, 12:08:32 AM

Meanwhile, share prices in London have been on a proper roll of late - 11 winning sessions on the bounce - a record in itself - & the last 9 have all been record closing highs.

Guess that means a correction is just around the corner.



Perhaps this was the correction?

Reading this thread always makes me want to invest a few quid but I find it a bit scary. Strange really when you consider I'll happily spew a few grand a year at roulette and blackjack without batting an eyelid.

I currently have a reasonable chunk in a pension fund that's just shouting at me to get invested somewhere but I never seem to have to balls to pull the trigger. I can see me just leaving it sat in a bank account earning a steady 1% or so (effectively devaluing I know).

Any advice for a newcomer who isn't going to study the markets but might want to dip their toes in the water?



Pass line with max odds. You're welcome  ;hattip;

Binions used to be triple behind the line way back when the market was bouyant.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Rupert on January 12, 2017, 05:56:50 AM

Meanwhile, share prices in London have been on a proper roll of late - 11 winning sessions on the bounce - a record in itself - & the last 9 have all been record closing highs.

Guess that means a correction is just around the corner.



Perhaps this was the correction?

Reading this thread always makes me want to invest a few quid but I find it a bit scary. Strange really when you consider I'll happily spew a few grand a year at roulette and blackjack without batting an eyelid.

I currently have a reasonable chunk in a pension fund that's just shouting at me to get invested somewhere but I never seem to have to balls to pull the trigger. I can see me just leaving it sat in a bank account earning a steady 1% or so (effectively devaluing I know).

Any advice for a newcomer who isn't going to study the markets but might want to dip their toes in the water?



http://www.nutmeg.com is pretty good as a low fee, well diversified portfolio that isn't an index.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: TightEnd on January 13, 2017, 11:05:19 AM
 Top fund manager likens Trump market rally to dotcom bubble

Neil Woodford likens FTSE’s 11th consecutive record close to 1999 tech bubble with ‘momentum driving share prices not fundamentals’

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/12/top-fund-manager-likens-trump-market-rally-to-dotcom-bubble?CMP=twt_gu


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on January 16, 2017, 05:50:32 PM

Meanwhile, share prices in London have been on a proper roll of late - 11 winning sessions on the bounce - a record in itself - & the last 9 have all been record closing highs.

Guess that means a correction is just around the corner.



Perhaps this was the correction?

Reading this thread always makes me want to invest a few quid but I find it a bit scary. Strange really when you consider I'll happily spew a few grand a year at roulette and blackjack without batting an eyelid.

I currently have a reasonable chunk in a pension fund that's just shouting at me to get invested somewhere but I never seem to have to balls to pull the trigger. I can see me just leaving it sat in a bank account earning a steady 1% or so (effectively devaluing I know).

Any advice for a newcomer who isn't going to study the markets but might want to dip their toes in the water?



http://www.nutmeg.com is pretty good as a low fee, well diversified portfolio that isn't an index.

Nutmeg isn't cheap. It's essentially a basket of tracker funds that charges 0.75% with a range of risk rated portfolio's.

You can DIY much cheaper with tracker funds.

I have a SIPP with HL whose platform charge is 0.45% and I won't pay any more than £220 per annum providing I invest in ETFs, Shares or Investment Trusts. Given I can get actively managed investments(eg Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust)  for peanuts I think that is a pretty good deal, although you need a 6 figure portfolio to get full benefit of the capped charge. Unit Trust/OEICs are more expensive granted.



Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on January 16, 2017, 05:55:05 PM

Meanwhile, share prices in London have been on a proper roll of late - 11 winning sessions on the bounce - a record in itself - & the last 9 have all been record closing highs.

Guess that means a correction is just around the corner.



It's all to do with currency Tikay rather than fundamentals. Most of the FTSE 100 constituents earn their money in dollars rather than pounds.

In dollar terms the FTSE 100 didn't go anywhere last year due to the 20% downside in the £ versus $ following the EU referendum.



Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on January 16, 2017, 05:57:22 PM
I know someone was going on about metrobank earlier this year.  I did a google earlier to see how they were doing any came up with a whole bunch of scary detail.

Much of it is behind the FT paywall, so I will summarise.  Vernon Hill was sacked from Commerce bank.  He has sued twice for a severence package and failed to get one.  He was stopped from becoming chairman twice by the FSA. 

http://news.sky.com/story/exclusive-fsa-blocks-new-metro-bank-chair-10461217 (http://news.sky.com/story/exclusive-fsa-blocks-new-metro-bank-chair-10461217)

No comment is given by the FSA/PRA, but is clear from the above and other articles that the US regulator wasn't willing to let him remain at Commerce either.

FT Alphaville has been busy too.  Allegedly Vernon Hill had way too many business relationships between members of his family and Commerce and between the bank and those in power. 

In addition Vernon Hill Commerce paid large sums to his wife's company to design Commerce bank premises.  It appears that Metro bank has continued this piece of bad business practice and had paid Shirley Hill's company, InterArch, £11m at the last count for branding etc (presumably a bigger sum by now).

If you have a FT subscription, there really is a mass of red flags around the share.



Not sure what to make of this to be honest, apart from I hold less than 1% of my portfolio in Metro Bank. It's up 57% over the last year, I think I will let it ride.

I can't think of many banks over the last 10-15 years that haven't courted controversy tbh. Northern Rock, Lehmans, RBS, Barclays the list is endless.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Rupert on January 16, 2017, 05:59:57 PM


Nutmeg isn't cheap. It's essentially a basket of tracker funds that charges 0.75% with a range of risk rated portfolio's.



Ah didn't know it was a fund of funds, I've only glossed over it. Not as good as I thought (still not completely awful though)


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on January 16, 2017, 09:56:24 PM


Nutmeg isn't cheap. It's essentially a basket of tracker funds that charges 0.75% with a range of risk rated portfolio's.



Ah didn't know it was a fund of funds, I've only glossed over it. Not as good as I thought (still not completely awful though)

The principle is fine for a new/inexperienced investor but a bit of background research and reading can help you create a similar portfolio on another platform for much less. They are essentially buying/selling trackers and realigning your portfolio so that it meets your investment objectives which are determined by risk analysis.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: TightEnd on January 25, 2017, 10:42:14 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2-CcWUW8AED6Yh.jpg)

BT shareholders will remember profit warning for years

https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2017/jan/24/bt-profit-warning-shareholders-italian-unit-gavin-patterson-chief-executive?CMP=twt_gu


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: TightEnd on January 26, 2017, 11:00:16 AM
The Dow Hit 20,000. Now What?

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/25/business/dealbook/dow-20000-stock-market-milestone.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: TightEnd on January 27, 2017, 05:47:22 PM
Tesco looks to be turning round at last, resuming dividends

bought booker today too

http://home.bt.com/news/uk-news/tesco-agrees-37bn-deal-for-food-wholesaler-booker-11364142138034


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: 4KSuited on March 19, 2017, 02:35:23 PM
Just in case anybody followed my rec on Galliford Try:

They've proposed a merger with the previously troubled Bovis Homes, and whilst talks continue they continue to scoop up Bovis shares at prices below the proposed merger valuation.

Galliford have just announced YE results, revealing that they have some way to go in improving their own margins in the construction division. They continue to perform well in their Linden Homes division, their land bank looks strong, and the order book is stronger (again) than in previous years. The share price has now reached a 12 month high, and if you'd acted when I mentioned them you'd be looking at a tidy return over a relatively short term.

However, for the record, I'm not convinced by the commercial sense of this merger. My fear is a dilution of the GFRD management values, too much more emphasis on the low-margin construction division, and potential for skeletons in the Bovis cupboards. So, for these reasons, I have sold 66% of my holding to bank a serious gain, with a watching brief until this merger has been resolved.

That's enough from me. Nirvana, what ya up to? Any thoughts on your own positions?


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on March 19, 2017, 04:01:50 PM
Just in case anybody followed my rec on Galliford Try:

They've proposed a merger with the previously troubled Bovis Homes, and whilst talks continue they continue to scoop up Bovis shares at prices below the proposed merger valuation.

Galliford have just announced YE results, revealing that they have some way to go in improving their own margins in the construction division. They continue to perform well in their Linden Homes division, their land bank looks strong, and the order book is stronger (again) than in previous years. The share price has now reached a 12 month high, and if you'd acted when I mentioned them you'd be looking at a tidy return over a relatively short term.

However, for the record, I'm not convinced by the commercial sense of this merger. My fear is a dilution of the GFRD management values, too much more emphasis on the low-margin construction division, and potential for skeletons in the Bovis cupboards. So, for these reasons, I have sold 66% of my holding to bank a serious gain, with a watching brief until this merger has been resolved.

That's enough from me. Nirvana, what ya up to? Any thoughts on your own positions?

Hi mate. Keep meaning to post an update. Still have all the original holdings. A pretty lucky gain of 30k ish on 48k invested as of last week I think. Boohoo the obvious star and keep wondering if I should bank some profit as I'd hate to wake up.one morning with the news the share price had halved..like I did a few months ago with Laird

Deffo massively the right side.of variance..Laird was the company I was most sure about and felt I knew the market. Boohoo was a punt that's paid handsomely so far. Other than that I'm too busy earning a salary to make money


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: 4KSuited on March 19, 2017, 05:41:36 PM
Hi mate

LOL re "too busy earning a salary to make money"

The FTSE is at an alltime high (if I'm not mistaken), so there's always a possibility of a "correction" on any kind of bad news. If it were me, I think I'd sell half my Boohoo to a) recover my original investment (ie free roll it), then b) rebalance my mini portfolio or c) diversify into a new sector with the released funds

If too busy, just do a) then follow up with b/c whenever time permits. You don't want another Laird day!

Atb


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on March 19, 2017, 08:22:10 PM
Hi mate

LOL re "too busy earning a salary to make money"

The FTSE is at an alltime high (if I'm not mistaken), so there's always a possibility of a "correction" on any kind of bad news. If it were me, I think I'd sell half my Boohoo to a) recover my original investment (ie free roll it), then b) rebalance my mini portfolio or c) diversify into a new sector with the released funds

If too busy, just do a) then follow up with b/c whenever time permits. You don't want another Laird day!

Atb

That looks like a plan - I'm not remotely keen on any of the original picks bar boohoo and only stubbornness/laziness prevents me getting this done. I'm minded to get off my ass and turn 50k back into cash while retaining a 28k or so holding in boohoo. Some brokers are still talking about this having a great deal of potential - I've seen £6.00 on some longer term advices so i'm happy to continue to hold this and be very unbalanced for a while. obviously not intended as advice to invest in boohoo for anyone here but the idea of freerolling it, as you mention, has a lot of appeal.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on May 20, 2017, 06:46:57 AM
Been ages since I last posted, unfortunately had a spell in hospital where I was quite ill. With the great care of the medics, I responded to the treatment and spent a lot of my rehab time reviewing and adjusting my portfolio. I have been self investing my two SIPPs now since January of last year and here is a snapshot of the good the bad and the ugly!

Shares

Winners

Apple Inc. +71%
Blue Prism +204%
Metro Bank +86%
Purplebricks +65%
Sports Direct +8%
Randgold Resources +3

Losers

NCC Group - 35%
Dixons Group -21%
Paddy Power Betfair -7%

Funds

Winners

Fundsmith Equity +15%
Henderson Global Technology +48%
Jupiter India +15%
Legg Mason Japan Equity +27%
Newton Global Income +24%
Premier Multi Asset +3%
Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Leaders +15%
Trojan inc. +2

Losers

Fidelity American Special Sits -4%

Investment Trusts

Winners

Fidelity China Special Situations +31%
Scottish Mortgage  Inv Trust +17 & +33%
TR European Growth +7%
Allianz Tech Trust +33%
Baille Gifford Shin Nippon +42%
Tritax Big Box REIT +8%

Losers

IGC India -1%

ETFs / tracker funds

Winners

Global Robotics Index +10%

Losers

Ishares Gold -2%

Overall I am very happy with the performance. I could have had a more concentrated portfolio and achieved higher returns, but the flip side being that any collapse in the market would have been very painful. It has been muted for months now the rally is overdone so I am well positioned to counter any downturn with a large holding in gold, two large holdings in muti asset funds which essentially are volatility busters. They will go down in a falling market but not as much as everything else. I also have around 10% in cash which is being held back for some bargain hunting if the markets do tank big time. It's going to happen, the hard thing is predicting when!








Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: DropTheHammer on June 17, 2017, 09:24:56 AM
When looking for shares to invest in, I typically look for established blue-chip companies that have had a rough time recently and consequently their shares are good value. If I think they are long-term viable companies then I will look to buy near the 'bottom'. This worked out well for me during the banking crisis when it was clear that the government would:
A) not let any of the banks go bust; and
B) hold on to its holdings until all/most of the value had recovered before selling.

A company I have been following for a few years is Tesco. If a supermarket selling horsemeat to its customers instead of beef doesn't kill it (I thought it might!) then surely only catastrophic financial mis-management could sink it. Historically, its shares are priced very low at the  moment:

(http://i1296.photobucket.com/albums/ag4/phill_555/TescoShares_zpsvuiz3uwb.jpg) (http://s1296.photobucket.com/user/phill_555/media/TescoShares_zpsvuiz3uwb.jpg.html)

And recent market-related news has been positive (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40299369) and negative (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40300341) +1 (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/16/tesco-fined-8m-fuel-leak-petrol-station-lancashire-supermarket-haslingden) recent news stories.

Brexit will have been factored into the share price since Tesco is committed to EU activities (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/22/tescos-eastern-european-business-is-here-to-stay-as-plans-reveal/) (I think the EU will be weaker after we leave), although expanding on its international business may be slightly concerning after its disastrous US venture.

I initially thought of buying now with a view to selling after doubling my money (in a few years' time?). And having just read this story (http://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2017/06/16/will-tesco-plc-ever-trade-above-300p-again/) that reaching a price of 300p is thought to be achievable I will definitely be taking a plunge...and will go in again if they go below their lowest-ever price of 143p.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on June 19, 2017, 03:54:44 PM
When looking for shares to invest in, I typically look for established blue-chip companies that have had a rough time recently and consequently their shares are good value. If I think they are long-term viable companies then I will look to buy near the 'bottom'. This worked out well for me during the banking crisis when it was clear that the government would:
A) not let any of the banks go bust; and
B) hold on to its holdings until all/most of the value had recovered before selling.

A company I have been following for a few years is Tesco. If a supermarket selling horsemeat to its customers instead of beef doesn't kill it (I thought it might!) then surely only catastrophic financial mis-management could sink it. Historically, its shares are priced very low at the  moment:

(http://i1296.photobucket.com/albums/ag4/phill_555/TescoShares_zpsvuiz3uwb.jpg) (http://s1296.photobucket.com/user/phill_555/media/TescoShares_zpsvuiz3uwb.jpg.html)

And recent market-related news has been positive (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40299369) and negative (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40300341) +1 (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/16/tesco-fined-8m-fuel-leak-petrol-station-lancashire-supermarket-haslingden) recent news stories.

Brexit will have been factored into the share price since Tesco is committed to EU activities (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/22/tescos-eastern-european-business-is-here-to-stay-as-plans-reveal/) (I think the EU will be weaker after we leave), although expanding on its international business may be slightly concerning after its disastrous US venture.

I initially thought of buying now with a view to selling after doubling my money (in a few years' time?). And having just read this story (http://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2017/06/16/will-tesco-plc-ever-trade-above-300p-again/) that reaching a price of 300p is thought to be achievable I will definitely be taking a plunge...and will go in again if they go below their lowest-ever price of 143p.


There are investment funds that do exactly what you have described here. The managers buy shares that are unfashionable and subjected to heavy selling pressure following either an earnings downgrade or some sort of accounting scandal. So if a professional is following this strategy and you are good at spotting value then you should do well.

The only thing with Tescos apart from the brexit effect, is a company that is a threat to every online grocery retailer in the UK i.e. Amazon. On Friday they bid for a US grocery chain called Wholefoods. Surprisingly the ripple effect was felt over here with UK food retailers shares prices coming under pressure.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4612972/Amazon-Foods-merge-wipes-value-retailers-stocks.html

I have now trimmed down my tech holdings and have more than 20% in cash. I don't like being in this situation but feel reluctant to put more money into the stock market, perhaps I need to look a commercial property.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: The Camel on June 28, 2017, 04:12:00 PM
What is the best way to short a stock?


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: TightEnd on June 28, 2017, 04:16:55 PM
contracts for difference

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contract_for_difference

you would need to provide margin up front to cover losses if the shares go against you

not up to date with who offers them in the UK but they used to be what i used professionally


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: TightEnd on June 28, 2017, 04:19:26 PM
here is one,just found at random

https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/learn-cfd-trading/what-are-cfds


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: The Camel on June 28, 2017, 04:56:56 PM
Thanks Rich.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Longines on June 29, 2017, 03:57:50 PM
Spreadex another option Keith, they offer sports and Fin markets.

https://financials.spreadex.com/en-GB

(http://i64.tinypic.com/o0udsz.jpg)


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: pleno1 on June 29, 2017, 05:33:41 PM
crypto?


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: The Camel on June 29, 2017, 08:40:59 PM
Spreadex another option Keith, they offer sports and Fin markets.

https://financials.spreadex.com/en-GB

(http://i64.tinypic.com/o0udsz.jpg)

I've got Spreadex, but I've only ever used it for sports.

Do they quote individual stocks?


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Longines on June 30, 2017, 08:22:32 AM

I've got Spreadex, but I've only ever used it for sports.


Me too.


Quote
Do they quote individual stocks?

Loads. FTSE 100, 250, AIM plus others as well as shares from the US and 13 European markets.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: PokerBroker on July 01, 2017, 03:48:05 AM
Keep meaning to drop in for an update, so the ARM takeover will be completed by September and my SIPP account will be funded with the cash equivalent of £17 a share. I decided to sell half my holding last month, on the basis that the takeover might not happen, and that if that was the case it would give me the opportunity to buy in for a lower price. As things stand, I expect the takeover to proceed smoothly with no hitches.

Whilst ARM is a notable investment success for me, I am at pains to stress that I do not consider myself a good stock picker. Some of the profits I have made down the years have as much been down to luck rather than judgement. At present I have a strategy of putting 80% of my funds for SIPPs/ISA's into the hands of capable fund managers. Stocks I currently hold are Just Eat, Dixons, NCC Group, Purplebricks and Metro Bank.

Two funds I bought post Brexit are Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Fundsmith, both of which have increased over 10% since the fateful day so I am happy with that. More importantly both these funds have a record of providing solid returns over the longer term and are well respected in the financial world. I also like investing in technology shares and have parked some cash with the Allianz Technology Trust.

Before I go here's a few investment ideas for a Tikay style fund :).

Lafarge Holcim - Concrete Solutions company - Listed in Paris and Zurich
Bombadier - Train Manufacturer - Listed in Toronto
Kier Group - Property and Construction - London
Hornby  PLC :) -  Model Railways -  AIM - London

Ok I got bored after 4 companies, perhaps it's the subject material ;).  







I thnk Metro Bank could be a  nice long term hold.  I don't know a great deal about shares but as a challenger bank they are pretty decent in the Mortgage market.  They are changing lots of things slowly and they are positive changes so far.  If they become bolder and relax some of their rules they could be a big player in the market soon and that is likely to give them more exposure. 



Looks like a complete bag of bollocks to me.  A loss making bank at a huge premium to net assets.  Talks about a powerful AMAZE culture in the half year results.  Sounds impressive?  Nope, not to me either.

Shares and investments aren't really my game I have a few small investments just for fun and Metro was one that interested me before I played a few quid when I suggested on here they could be a reasonable long term hold just based on my own opinion and on what I seen as a reasonable challenger. 

It seems to have ticked along nicely since then, I am not going to claim this as a win just yet but I am bullish about the future. 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on July 05, 2017, 11:47:29 AM
Keep meaning to drop in for an update, so the ARM takeover will be completed by September and my SIPP account will be funded with the cash equivalent of £17 a share. I decided to sell half my holding last month, on the basis that the takeover might not happen, and that if that was the case it would give me the opportunity to buy in for a lower price. As things stand, I expect the takeover to proceed smoothly with no hitches.

Whilst ARM is a notable investment success for me, I am at pains to stress that I do not consider myself a good stock picker. Some of the profits I have made down the years have as much been down to luck rather than judgement. At present I have a strategy of putting 80% of my funds for SIPPs/ISA's into the hands of capable fund managers. Stocks I currently hold are Just Eat, Dixons, NCC Group, Purplebricks and Metro Bank.

Two funds I bought post Brexit are Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Fundsmith, both of which have increased over 10% since the fateful day so I am happy with that. More importantly both these funds have a record of providing solid returns over the longer term and are well respected in the financial world. I also like investing in technology shares and have parked some cash with the Allianz Technology Trust.

Before I go here's a few investment ideas for a Tikay style fund :).

Lafarge Holcim - Concrete Solutions company - Listed in Paris and Zurich
Bombadier - Train Manufacturer - Listed in Toronto
Kier Group - Property and Construction - London
Hornby  PLC :) -  Model Railways -  AIM - London

Ok I got bored after 4 companies, perhaps it's the subject material ;).  







I thnk Metro Bank could be a  nice long term hold.  I don't know a great deal about shares but as a challenger bank they are pretty decent in the Mortgage market.  They are changing lots of things slowly and they are positive changes so far.  If they become bolder and relax some of their rules they could be a big player in the market soon and that is likely to give them more exposure. 



Looks like a complete bag of bollocks to me.  A loss making bank at a huge premium to net assets.  Talks about a powerful AMAZE culture in the half year results.  Sounds impressive?  Nope, not to me either.

Shares and investments aren't really my game I have a few small investments just for fun and Metro was one that interested me before I played a few quid when I suggested on here they could be a reasonable long term hold just based on my own opinion and on what I seen as a reasonable challenger. 

It seems to have ticked along nicely since then, I am not going to claim this as a win just yet but I am bullish about the future. 

If you compare the performance of Metro Bank versus its peers (ie other UK banks) since flotation it has easily outperformed. I believe it is now turning a profit, and I personally am sitting on a 78% profit in just over 1 year. I think it's time to sell up with this stock and watch from the sidelines.

With regards to shorting individual stocks you can do this via CFDs  or Spread Betting index companies.

Interesting to see Cryptocurrency has also come up on the radar. I am doing lots of research into these at present but think in general the whole space is overheating and due a huge correction. Some crypto's have shown a return of several hundred percent this year alone, that is not sustainable. The classic fear and greed scenario is panning out I suspect. 

 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Doobs on January 15, 2019, 10:03:59 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46874367 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46874367)

Turns out Nirvana is the greatest investor on Blonde.  Down a big today, but still not crashed and burned.

Crypto and Metrobank turned out to be a bag of bollocks after all.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: nirvana on January 15, 2019, 10:07:15 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46874367 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46874367)

Turns out Nirvana is the greatest investor on Blonde.  Down a big today, but still not crashed and burned.

Crypto and Metrobank turned out to be a bag of bollocks after all.

Haha. Some of the others didn't do so well. Still have all my boohoo but probs shoulda sold when they were hitting 2.50 ish a while back but got greedy


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Doobs on January 15, 2019, 10:36:38 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46874367 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46874367)

Turns out Nirvana is the greatest investor on Blonde.  Down a big today, but still not crashed and burned.

Crypto and Metrobank turned out to be a bag of bollocks after all.

Haha. Some of the others didn't do so well. Still have all my boohoo but probs shoulda sold when they were hitting 2.50 ish a while back but got greedy

If only the above were true for me; my recent experience is summarised as "some of the others didn't do so well"  too. 


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: acegooner on January 30, 2019, 07:16:53 PM
Never thought rate my shares would get above the crypto thread again, that says a lot about Bitcoin. It's been a pretty brutal few months on the markets, but still would rather be in stocks losing 20% over a short period of time than in something like ETH and nursing 90% losses with no sign of a recovery.


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: Woodsey on January 30, 2019, 10:43:37 PM
Never thought rate my shares would get above the crypto thread again, that says a lot about Bitcoin. It's been a pretty brutal few months on the markets, but still would rather be in stocks losing 20% over a short period of time than in something like ETH and nursing 90% losses with no sign of a recovery.

I was about 15% up on the year until it all went tits up in the latter part of last year. Now I’m scared to even look at it until the dust settles  :o rotflmfao


Title: Re: Rate my shares
Post by: bobAlike on May 16, 2020, 12:06:34 PM
Wondering what price to jump in and buy Rolls-Royce shares. Current price is a touch over 2.49. I think if this drops to 2.00 i might have a dabble.