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Community Forums => The Lounge => Topic started by: MintTrav on December 03, 2015, 08:38:26 PM



Title: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on December 03, 2015, 08:38:26 PM
I think that the US Presidential Election needs its own thread. This is such an important issue for us - it shouldn't be buried in the Politics thread. It might start off slowly but, as the election approaches, I would expect it to pick up a lot.
 
As of 1 December, 1,409 candidates had filed a Statement of Candidacy but only a few have a possibility of becoming President.

The main candidates:

Democrats
Hilary Clinton
Martin O'Malley
Bernie Sanders

Republicans
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump

One of these people will be the next President.
 


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on December 03, 2015, 08:39:09 PM
Several other leading members of both parties were regarded as potential candidates but have ruled themselves out:

Ran but Withdrew:

Democrats
Jim Webb
Lincoln Chafee

Republicans
Bobby Jindal
Rick Perry
Scott Walker

Declined to Run:

Democrats
Joe Biden
Andrew Cuomo
Al Gore
Dennis Kucinich
Elizabeth Warren

Republicans
Mitt Romney
Paul Ryan
Susana Martinez
Mike Pence
Nikki Haley
Peter King


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on December 03, 2015, 08:43:20 PM
If Trump doesn't win the Republican nomination, will he run as an Independent?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RickBFA on December 03, 2015, 09:58:43 PM
Wharever your political persuasion, surely the fact that Trump is even on that list is scary in itself.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on December 03, 2015, 10:00:23 PM
If Trump doesn't win the Republican nomination, will he run as an Independent?

He has indicated he would recently, which would destroy it for the Republicans and would nicely confirm my conspiracy theory he is a Clinton plant.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on December 03, 2015, 10:02:12 PM
Wharever your political persuasion, surely the fact that Trump is even on that list is scary in itself.

Even more scary he is leading the polls, and scarier still that the guy behind him (Carson) is arguably even stupider.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on December 03, 2015, 10:27:41 PM
With Jeb Bush fading, the Republican establishment is banking on Marco Rubio coming through. Although still back in the pack, he must be the most likely nominee at this stage.

Trump, Carson and Cruz are their nightmare candidates. Apart from hating them, they see them as unelectable once it goes to the general election.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Longy on December 04, 2015, 04:22:17 AM
Hillary looks a lock as the Demorcatic candidate, very much still open in the Republican race.

Surely the Republicand need someone from the moderate side of their party, they have real issues that the demographics in the US are changing and there ever increasing amounts of non white voters who naturally socially (if not morally Hispanics tend to be religious) sway towards the democrats.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 04, 2015, 11:04:56 AM
please see the donald trump thread for previous discussions

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=66281.0

good idea to have a general thread though


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 04, 2015, 12:26:22 PM
CNN/ORC Poll: Trump alone at the top again

Donald Trump is once again alone at the top of the Republican field, according to the latest CNN/ORC Poll, with 36% of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents behind him, while his nearest competitor trails by 20 points.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc-national/index.html


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: titaniumbean on December 04, 2015, 01:38:57 PM
Trump has managed to somehow come across well here (sort of, shock he's up against Adelson....) -

https://theintercept.com/2015/12/03/donald-trump-booed-by-pro-israel-group-after-telling-them-he-cant-be-bought/ (https://theintercept.com/2015/12/03/donald-trump-booed-by-pro-israel-group-after-telling-them-he-cant-be-bought/)



Bernie Sanders ftw. Really not a fan of Hilary, nor the whole lets have hubby then wifey, daddy then son in office. Way too incestuous, not like they will have vastly different backroom staff so it just keeps the status quo with a different figurehead.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 07, 2015, 02:13:19 PM
Seven weeks to go before Iowa and Trump remains totally dominant

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/12/07/seven-weeks-to-go-before-iowa-and-trump-remains-totally-dominant/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 07, 2015, 02:17:50 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVoEUnwUYAElRlt.png)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 07, 2015, 04:09:28 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVoegP6WEAAn1ye.png:large)

http://www.capx.co/167179-2/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on December 08, 2015, 03:53:42 AM
Press release tonight from Trump: "Donald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country's representatives can figure out what is going on..........."

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/donald-j.-trump-statement-on-preventing-muslim-immigration

Clarification with his staff indicates that this includes holiday visas and American Muslims returning from abroad.

Quickly condemned from all sides, even Cruz and Carson, who would look like the extremists in the race if it wasn't for Trump. Jeb Bush's response - "Donald Trump is unhinged."

So he intends to deport 11 million Hispanics, build a wall between the USA and Mexico, create a database of Muslims living in the US and bar all Muslims from entering the country. No wonder he is leading the polls.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on December 08, 2015, 10:08:53 AM
The look on his face is gunna be the greatest gif of all time when he withdraws the night before the election and takes on elite troll status



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 08, 2015, 10:38:34 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVscHNJWIAEODRg.png)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on December 08, 2015, 11:13:37 AM
It's a shame that Trump has gone so crazy so early - he really has little distance to go before the men in white coats come and take him away.

I was really looking forward to a year of slowly building madness that still managed to beat the rest of the Republican field, just because without him, the campaign is just dull as ditchwater.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on December 09, 2015, 01:34:00 AM
It's a shame that Trump has gone so crazy so early - he really has little distance to go before the men in white coats come and take him away.

I was really looking forward to a year of slowly building madness that still managed to beat the rest of the Republican field, just because without him, the campaign is just dull as ditchwater.

I'm not having that. He may crowd out the coverage sometimes with his antics but there is lots of non-Trump entertainment and craziness on the campaigns. Just a sample of the weirdness:

We had the Kim Davis situation, and Cruz physically prevented from appearing on the platform cos Huckabee had paid for it:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4js7rLlwHh8

Just a couple of weeks ago, Cruz, Jindal and Huckabee all went on stage with this guy after he said this:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mibbHDmz85o

Some of the candidates made their own videos in case there were any people left who didn't think they were deranged. Lindsey Graham started it when Trump read out his phone number  during a speech. Rand Paul copied him to show what he wants to do to the tax regs, so he can replace them with a crazy flat tax. And Ted Cruz joined in just to show he is still around:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXSFRMJhlgY
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtglptO4v34
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaZGaJrd3x8

Ben Carson made some extraordinary claims about his past, including that he was offered a place at WestPoint, which has been acknowledged to be false. He also claimed several violent incidents before he found God, including attacking his mother with a hammer and trying to kill someone with a knife. Here he is blaming the victims of the Oregon shooting:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UKCjDqwRIM

This is Marco Rubio's Deputy Campaign Manager punching Rand Paul's National Political Director:
 
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PuU7FcWsWI

There is loads of this stuff happening every day. Dull it ain't.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Tal on December 09, 2015, 07:15:36 AM
The Daily Show and Last Week Tonight are very much worth watching. One of these people will get through to the final, let's not forget.

Carson also claimed the pyramids weren't actually burial chambers but places for the Egyptians to store grain. As you do.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 09, 2015, 10:18:59 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVt2GuvW4AQ4Tb8.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 09, 2015, 10:20:13 AM
Darth Trump.

Made with 100% all natural Trump sound bites.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KU_Jdts5rL0


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 09, 2015, 11:11:46 AM
new york daily news front cover

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVxhwjsWsAAHboY.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on December 09, 2015, 11:45:25 AM
Everyone is being unfair to Trump. It wasn't even his idea. Just last week, Rand Paul tried to get the Senate to approve a moratorium on visas for everyone from 33 high-risk countries. Just nine other patriotic Senators (including Cruz) voted in favour but, unfortunately, 89 stick-in-the-muds voted against. However, the project was successful in its primary objective - reinforcing Paul's hardline image to conservative voters.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/12/07/10-senators-vote-pause-immigration-high-risk-countries/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 09, 2015, 11:55:09 AM
Crazy billionaire populist runs as independent, splits right, lets a Clinton into the White House?


Donald J. Trump Verified account
‏@realDonaldTrump

A new poll indicates that 68% of my supporters would vote for me if I departed the GOP & ran as an independent. 


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on December 09, 2015, 11:57:29 AM
Crazy billionaire populist runs as independent, splits right, lets a Clinton into the White House?


Donald J. Trump Verified account
‏@realDonaldTrump

A new poll indicates that 68% of my supporters would vote for me if I departed the GOP & ran as an independent. 

He is friends with the Clintons and a previous Clinton donator, I've had this conspiracy theory for a while that he is in cahoots with them


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 10, 2015, 10:48:42 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVzm3o2XAAAiUvH.png)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 10, 2015, 10:49:21 AM
The recent history of the road to a presidential nomination is paved with frontrunners who eventually fall short

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/datablog/2015/dec/09/donald-trump-polls-past-elections-republican-nomination


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: neeko on December 10, 2015, 01:43:07 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVzm3o2XAAAiUvH.png)

These polls make great headlines but need to be taken with a bucket of salt, they are online rather than face to face or even by phone. The audience of those who want to click is biased to those who have an opinion, tend to click, relative to those who don't. Also it is only 604 clicks, hardly representitve, giving itself a 4% margin of error is courageous.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on December 10, 2015, 01:54:31 PM
When the Prime Minister of Israel thinks your statements about Muslims are too extreme:

@IsraeliPM
"Prime Minister Netanyahu rejects Donald Trump's recent remarks about Muslims."

https://mobile.twitter.com/IsraeliPM/status/674653302852816896?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 10, 2015, 02:03:34 PM
!


Donald J. Trump Verified account
‏@realDonaldTrump

Thank you to respected columnist Katie Hopkins of DailyMail.com  for her  powerful writing on the U.K.'s Muslim problems


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 12, 2015, 11:51:29 AM
Is Donald Trump a Democratic secret agent?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35066940


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on December 12, 2015, 11:57:06 AM
Is Donald Trump a Democratic secret agent?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35066940

If so, how much fun must he be having right now? It must be a right laugh to troll the entire planet.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 13, 2015, 11:24:14 AM
Huge news in Des Moines Register poll --

Cruz 31 Trump 21 Carson 13 Rubio 10 Bush 6 Paul/Huckabee/Christie 3

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/12/12/big-shakeup-iowa-poll-cruz-soars-lead/77199800/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 15, 2015, 10:41:47 AM
How Iowa Republican voters view key issues - from Des Moines Register poll

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWND3qcWoAA6ubi.png)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 15, 2015, 06:40:09 PM
ABC/Wash Post poll has Trump with big lead in national poll
Trump 38
Cruz 15
Rubio 12
Carson 12
Bush 5
Christie 4
Paul 2
Kasich 2
Fiorina 1


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on December 15, 2015, 10:13:49 PM
It's the final Republican debate of the year tonight at The Venetian. Looking out for Cruz/Trump and Cruz/Rubio exchanges. Cruz has avoided criticising Trump so he wouldn't alienate supporters who might come to him if Trump blows up but there are signs that they may be about to turn on each other. Rubio and Cruz have attempted to out-conservative each other a few times and the race may ultimately come down to them. Carson is on the way down and the rest are nowhere.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 16, 2015, 11:16:03 AM
Trump now thinks he can win the nomination. (on last night's Republican debate) http://www.capx.co/167755-2/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on December 16, 2015, 07:56:29 PM
Extraordinary. Chris Christie, one of the 'sensible' candidates, said he would shoot down Russian planes over Syria. He also confused his Jordanian kings, saying he has talks with King Hussein (who died in 1999). Bush, with nothing now to lose, finally woke up and set about Trump, which should do him (Bush) some good. Rubio & Cruz got into it with each other, but Carson didn't get much air-time.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: nirvana on December 16, 2015, 09:14:10 PM
Extraordinary. Chris Christie, one of the 'sensible' candidates, said he would shoot down Russian planes over Syria. He also confused his Jordanian kings, saying he has talks with King Hussein (who died in 1999). Bush, with nothing now to lose, finally woke up and set about Trump, which should do him (Bush) some good. Rubio & Cruz got into it with each other, but Carson didn't get much air-time.

Watched most of this debate now having not really watched anything so far and with little knowledge of any of them.

Out of interest, do you think any of these candidates are any good a) In terms of your personal preference and b) in terms of electability

I thought the best communicator was probably Rubio. Can't see how Cruz is popular at all. Trump nuts and the rest also rans.

Just on what they said during the debate I probably liked Rand Paul the best but obviously a no channer due to a distinct lack of jingoism & America first, best and always


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: rfgqqabc on December 17, 2015, 05:19:44 AM
Thoughts on laying Trump @ 10/3 as Republican nomination. Surely they will take a loss this year of promoting someone so outrageous, even if it is just how poorly he is perceived internationally. They can't become a world wide laughing stock.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 17, 2015, 10:43:29 AM
Trump is unqualified for the presidency but will Republicans realise this before or after he destroys their party?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/tuesdays-gop-debate-separated-the-serious-candidates-from-the-loons/2015/12/16/c9fffeac-a422-11e5-ad3f-991ce3374e23_story.html


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on December 17, 2015, 11:46:36 AM
I did read a theory somewhere that the Republicans may well allow themselves to take the hit of a Trump candidacy - knowing they'll lose to Hillary but achieving the goal of popping the bubble of the crazy right. Allowing Trump to run, and get totally Mondaled at the polls would, the theory goes, show the nutjobs up as being totally unelectable, allowing the centre of the party to regain control.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Doobs on December 17, 2015, 12:01:53 PM
I did read a theory somewhere that the Republicans may well allow themselves to take the hit of a Trump candidacy - knowing they'll lose to Hillary but achieving the goal of popping the bubble of the crazy right. Allowing Trump to run, and get totally Mondaled at the polls would, the theory goes, show the nutjobs up as being totally unelectable, allowing the centre of the party to regain control.

I am a bit sceptical over whether they have a choice given his polling.

They should probably consult Margaret Beckett over whether it was a good idea to let the extreme candidate have a run at the election and she could probably also advise on how easy it is to regain control of your party afterwards.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on December 18, 2015, 04:44:25 PM
Out of interest, do you think any of these candidates are any good a) In terms of your personal preference and b) in terms of electability

Okay.

I'm afraid I have an unhealthy obsession with these guys and spend too much time watching clips and reading about them. Like some people on here know a lot about football or horse-racing, I like to follow US politics. Not really sure why. I've tried to keep it as short as I can.

It's an unusual contest on the Republican side this time, and no-one knows how it is going to run out. For a start, there are far too many candidates still running. The Republican field usually consists of several well-respected ex-Governors or Senators who have served their time doing good work on committees and such-like for many years, a couple of upstart Senators making a mark for the next time and an evangelical outsider. The result has been a solid experienced candidate like Dole/GWBush/McCain/Romney, but the equivalent 'sensible' candidates this time (Christie, Pataki, Graham, Bush, Gilmore, Kasich) are floundering. None of these are liberals. You just have to look at the history of what they have supported or approved to realise that they are all pretty right-wing. Gilmore, for example, is a Director of the NRA. It is just that some of the others are so far-right that they make these look like moderates. Christie and Bush got some traction at the recent debate and may have a route back, but that doesn't seem to be the case for the rest.

There has been a lot of support for non-politicians from voters who claim to be tired of professional politicians. Another unusual factor is that the Republicans should have a shot at the Hispanic vote this time with both Rubio and Cruz having Cuban parents. Neither, though, has strong support outside of Cubans, who form a small proportion of Hispanics. Bush also has big Hispanic appeal - he has a degree in Latin American Studies, speaks Spanish fluently and his wife is Mexican. Although his overall figures are low, he could pick up delegates from concentration of Hispanic voters. Also, the Mexican vote is much larger than the Cuban.

When Trump joined the race last summer he was seen as a novelty candidate with no chance of winning. There is his clown-like persona, and he has mostly been a liberal in the past. He is against the cuts in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid that a lot of the other candidates are proposing. Initial jibes were about whether he was really a conservative, his history of flip-flopping on issues and his closeness to the Clintons. When he did well in polls, it was assumed that it was just due to being well known and his populist anti-politician stance and he would fade once he had to explain his political views and his bombastic style began to annoy the public. He has made a series of outlandish statements and has met criticism with personal insults. Either of these would have been disastrous in the past but, the more outrageous his statements, the more his polling has improved. There is still the possibility that he will say something that causes his campaign to explode, but he is now being taken seriously. Just this week, Hillary said she is no longer laughing at his candidacy.

Cruz was expected to be occupying the role that Trump is in until Trump came along. He has a stellar legal background - outstanding at Harvard, national debate champion, won more cases at the Supreme Court than anyone in history when he was Solicitor General of Texas. He went to the Senate, though, as an anti-politician. Most first-term Senators toe the line, serve on some committees and work their way through the system. Cruz took a non-conformist approach never seen before from a junior Senator, picking numerous fights, mostly with the leadership of his own side. The Republican establishment hates him, but he was appealing over their heads to the conservative voters by floating some very right-wing ideas. Trump came along and went one step further. Cruz proposed armed guards patrolling the Mexican border; Trump wants to build a wall, and so on. Cruz has responded by refusing to criticise Trump. He is waiting for the Trump collapse, when he hopes to inherit Trump's supporters, though he has already improved to second place at just the right time. He could win Iowa.

Rubio looks the part of the good-looking young Senator. In fact, he's the same age as Cruz. Previously Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, he has spent one term as Senator. Also extremely right-wing, though less so on immigration, the establishment would settle for him if they have to in preference to Cruz or Trump. He is the only Republican who beats Clinton in some head-to-head polls and has been the most articulate in the debates, mastering the three-part answer. He also knows his stuff - when Trump was exposed as not knowing what the nuclear triad is, Rubio stepped in and explained it clearly. His problem is that he isn't leading anywhere yet, so may not get the delegates his polling numbers suggest. He is third in Iowa, fourth in South Carolina and Trump seems to have New Hampshire sown up. Worse, he doesn't seem to have much organization going on in those early States. He really didn't need another establishment man like Christie making up ground.

Bush started the race as favourite but hasn't impressed, especially in the debates. Trump seemed to nail it when he said Bush was 'low energy'. His policies are generally quite reasonable and he is still the most electable of the sensible candidates (or the most sensible of the electable candidates). His slow humiliation has been embarrassing to watch but he has come to life a bit recently and could possibly be resurrected.

Huckabee has been around this block before and was ahead of McCain in 08 and Romney in 12 before it went wrong. A former Pastor, he founded and ran Christian TV channels before entering politics. Also a former Governor, he published a book this year called God, Guns, Grits, and Gravy, which pretty much sums him up. Incidentally, he was born in Hope, the same small town as Bill Clinton.  Santorum is another religious nut who has issues with the theory of evolution, but he is likely to drop out soon. Fiorina, ex-CEO of Hewlett Packard, doesn't belong in the race and has made no progress. She should get out, but she has a billionaire backer. Carson, the other non-politician, flew high for a period but has exposed himself as a nut-job and is fading. Paul is an odd guy who I can never take seriously, cos he just doesn't look like a President. He has Tea Party support and is very conservative on some issues, but has unique positions on others. He is non-interventionist on foreign policy (or isolationist according to the others).

It's a pity that Trump's noise is drowning out everything else, as there are some interesting discussions going on. For example, Rubio, Bush and Carson want to send in troops to get rid of Assad and tackle ISIS, whereas Trump and Cruz say that toppling the leaders of Iraq and Libya was a mistake and want to stick to an air war on just one front. Bizarrely, Cruz wants to go for regime change in Iran. Paul seems to want to do none of it.

Being front-runner guarantees little. Bush and Scott Walker led the polls for the first six months of this year - now Bush is sinking and Walker is no longer even in the race. Usually, there would be little point in candidates who are polling 2-3% (0% in some cases) hanging around. If Trump screws up by going too far, though, there will be a huge number of votes suddenly available, which could go anywhere. Cruz in particular, but also Rubio, are well-placed to pick up the majority, but no-one can be certain. If Trump gets desperate, he could attack Cruz' birth-right (he was born in Canada), which could get very messy. So the no-hopers hang in. That can only go so far though. If Iowa and New Hampshire go as expected, we could be down to Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Bush and Christie within weeks.

Here are a couple of graphs from earlier in the year that might help to place them. Sure, they present something complex in a simplistic manner, but what can you do? Since this was done, the gap has widened. The success of Sanders on the one hand and Cruz etc on the other has forced Clinton to sound more progressive and the moderate Republicans to move to the right, leaving a huge centrist area unoccupied. Before his various recent high-profile announcements, Trump would have been around the centre of the first graph, certainly to the left of Christie. I'm not quite sure where he would sit now.

(http://dailysignal.com/wp-content/uploads/150114_2016Ranking_Scanlon.png)

(https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/silver-datalab-candidate-venn1.png?w=610&h=613)

Rubio, Paul and Santorum all attract Tea Party support and Carson gets his religion out a lot, but you get the idea. The sane candidates are found in the top left quarter.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on December 18, 2015, 06:26:16 PM
An example of how being the front-runner can mean nothing.

Rick Perry had a Trump-like lead the last time and looked destined for the nomination until this happened - what became known as his 'Oops Moment'.

His figures went into free-fall and he never recovered.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0hC1a4-AGM


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Tal on December 18, 2015, 06:32:17 PM
Very interesting, Mr Trav. Thank you for that.

This birthright issue, I thought you couldn't be president unless you were born in the USA? How is Cruz even running, in that case?

Calling Christie a moderate and sensible is what defines this whole saga for me.

Good thread, this.  



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RickBFA on December 18, 2015, 07:02:39 PM
Yes, thank you MintTrav.

Really interesting and educational for me.

It will be fascinating to see how it plays out.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 18, 2015, 07:08:24 PM
Excellent post John

what got you interested in USpolitics in the first place?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on December 18, 2015, 08:52:30 PM
This birthright issue, I thought you couldn't be president unless you were born in the USA? How is Cruz even running, in that case?

His mother is American. A lot of people have questioned it, but he seems to be in the clear, though there is a suspicion that Trump will go there if he has to.

what got you interested in USpolitics in the first place?

Watching the 1988 caucuses and primaries on CNN, as the Democrats searched for a candidate who could challenge Bush Snr. Gary Hart was the big favourite until he was caught having a close friendship with Donna Rice. They were left in the mud as the rest of the field was seen as weak and were labelled the Seven Dwarfs - Joe Biden, Bruce Babbitt, Al Gore, Dick Gephart, Paul Simon, Michael Dukakis, Jesse Jackson. Simon and Jackson were unelectable, but the rest actually comprised a strong field, though some of them hadn't yet reached the level of recognition they would go on to. Even Gore, who was only 39, had a wealth of experience under his belt.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on December 18, 2015, 10:00:09 PM
It's like one of those logic questions.

Tal is to Strictly as MintTrav is to US politics.

Lovely work John.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on December 18, 2015, 10:10:14 PM
Very interesting reading.

Thanks for taking the time to post it.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: neeko on December 18, 2015, 11:16:18 PM
V nice, ty.

How do you think the votes of the democratic states, Cali, NY etc (republicans who vote in those states but who are democrat relative to those in Alabama or Mississippi) will affect the race - will they all go for Rubio/ Bush / Christie and invalidate this phoney war that has been going on so far. (There are more republican delegates in these states than the firebrand ones)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on December 19, 2015, 02:45:53 AM
How do you think the votes of the democratic states, Cali, NY etc (republicans who vote in those states but who are democrat relative to those in Alabama or Mississippi) will affect the race - will they all go for Rubio/ Bush / Christie and invalidate this phoney war that has been going on so far. (There are more republican delegates in these states than the firebrand ones)

That's a helluva question. I think you're right that they would tend towards the more moderate candidates. California has usually been irrelevant, as it is all decided by then, though maybe that won't be the case this time, but certainly States like Massachusetts and Ohio would be expected to be good for the moderates.

New Hampshire is make or break for the likes of Christie, Graham, Pataki and Kasich. Probably one will survive out of those. Whoever it is should have a good shot at New York, especially Pataki, who was Governor there for three terms. We should also have seen the end of Santorum, Huckabee and maybe Rand by then. Most of the Southern States are front-loaded in early March and Cruz needs to win delegates then, as they could dry up for him after that.

A lot depends on who drops out when. If we get to a point where either the 'moderates' or the 'conservatives' are reduced to one or two while the other strand still has about four candidates, the group with the fewer candidates should have an advantage as their votes will be less dispersed. If the establishment can decide between Bush and Rubio at an early stage, so one of them gets a clear run, they might do much better than the current numbers indicate. On the other hand, if Cruz can oust Trump while Bush, Rubio and maybe even Christie are still in, he could over-achieve in the moderate States.

Some of the States are winner-takes-all and some are proportionate (and some are proportionate with a variety of adjustments). In this strange year, how dispersed or concentrated a candidates' supporters are may affect the outcome. Taking a winner-takes-all State is always good as you take some of your opponents' delegates, but over-winning it by a high percentage could mean that your delegate count doesn't reflect your national polling rate.

What do you think?

(http://www.redstate.com/uploads/2015/10/GOP-Primary-Calendar-as-of-10-30-15.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: doubleup on December 19, 2015, 09:54:28 AM

Good Posts Mint ty


On a more mundane note

30% of GOP voters support bombing Agrabah, the city from Aladdin

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/18/republican-voters-bomb-agrabah-disney-aladdin-donald-trump



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: tikay on December 19, 2015, 10:46:26 AM
An example of how being the front-runner can mean nothing.

Rick Perry had a Trump-like lead the last time and looked destined for the nomination until this happened - what became known as his 'Oops Moment'.

His figures went into free-fall and he never recovered.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0hC1a4-AGM

Wonderful write up Mint, thank you.

That You Tube clip is barely believable.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: teddybloat on December 19, 2015, 11:23:10 AM
i doubt trump can have one of those moments.

some politicians are immune from them as they don't build their appeal on slick, outward political professionalism. quite the opposite, their appeal lies in firmly being against such values.

boris, nigel, donald.

they can drop clangers and appear more like the rest of us, say controversial things and people will thank them for saying what other are thinking but daren't say.

their slips and controversial speeches are seen as common touches and acts of bravery respectively


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on December 19, 2015, 02:01:28 PM
I think there's a lot of truth in that. Trump has already said a lot of things that would have finished a normal candidate.

Here's another frontrunner who threw away years of work in a moment. In 2004 Howard Dean was miles ahead for the Democratic nomination and John Kerry was pretty much dead. After a better-than-expected result in Iowa, Dean had a Kinnock moment and went mental. He became a laughing stock and his support collapsed.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RwkNnMrsx7Q


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: nirvana on December 19, 2015, 03:58:22 PM
Thanks, that was a great response - gonna stay interested in this now I think


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on December 19, 2015, 10:27:41 PM
It's the third Democrat debate tonight. They are only having six, with three of them on Saturdays, with this one obviously being on the Saturday before Christmas. It's widely believed that the Democratic National Committee is trying to smooth Clinton's path by holding the debates when fewer people will be watching, reducing her exposure.

In contrast with the Republicans, who can't fit all their candidates on the stage at the same time, the Democrats are three-handed already - Clinton, Sanders and O'Malley.

The Sanders campaign has focused on economic issues, but foreign affairs will undoubtedly feature heavily this time. There are major differences between them here, as Clinton is quite a hawk, whereas Sanders has a reputation for being anti-war, though he has sometimes supported military action.

There was a major crisis during the week, when the Sanders campaign's access to the DNC voter database was suspended due to misuse, namely accessing Clinton's data. The person responsible said he had discovered a security problem and was just investigating to see to what extent Sanders was exposed. He was sacked, but the DNC decided to deny Sanders access to the shared database in punishment. Sanders said he was suing the DNC, but today they have reversed their decision.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on December 20, 2015, 02:43:35 PM
(http://a.abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/ABC_Clinton_stage2_cf_151219_12x5_992.jpg)

This photo was taken halfway through last night's Democrat debate.

Something that should be there is missing. Can you spot what it is?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: neeko on December 20, 2015, 03:31:25 PM
The audience bored of two irrelevant people waffling.

Elizabeth Warren v Hillary would have been far more interesting.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 26, 2015, 11:00:47 AM
CNN/ORC general election ballot tests (RV):

Rubio 49 Clinton 46
Cruz 48 Clinton 46
Clinton 49 Trump 47


http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/12/23/cnnpoll2.pdf


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on December 31, 2015, 12:16:47 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CXft_jLWAAMlM6b.png:large)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on December 31, 2015, 05:18:16 PM
Lindsey Graham and George Pataki dropped out of the race this week after discovering over Christmas that their families were not aware they were running, reducing the field for the GOP nomination to a measly twelve.

It's interesting that, so far, it has been the most qualified candidates who have been forced out. "Of the six most experienced candidates in the Republicans’ 2016 field, five were forced from the race before a single vote was cast."

(http://www.msnbc.com/sites/msnbc/files/styles/embedded_image/public/12.30.15.jpg?itok=q9a6Z9tZ)

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/experienced-gop-presidential-candidates-the-first-quit

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is in a race against time to find one more group to insult before the year ends.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on January 03, 2016, 04:45:01 AM
Gil Fulbright - the honest politician.

First it was the Senate. Now he's running for President.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz_V4lRdtjo

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAtunJv6NtE

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMOkw07mQPM


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on January 04, 2016, 04:37:34 PM
Exactly 4 weeks until Iowa. Latest Presidential election odds from Ladbrokes: http://ow.ly/WBq2A 

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CX4xcjMWQAAPnCJ.png)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on January 05, 2016, 11:46:38 AM
Trump drums up support on the campaign trail

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CX8obPFWkAABHZ0.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RickBFA on January 05, 2016, 04:45:35 PM
Exactly 4 weeks until Iowa. Latest Presidential election odds from Ladbrokes: http://ow.ly/WBq2A 

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CX4xcjMWQAAPnCJ.png)

Mint, what do you think of those odds?



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on January 05, 2016, 05:32:36 PM
First national GOP poll of 2016, SurreyMonkey/NBC, has Trump maintaining solid lead.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CX-HMfqWkAEYgmr.png)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on January 06, 2016, 01:47:02 PM
Does the Republican establishment have any idea how to stop Trump? http://53eig.ht/1ONCT1y


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on January 08, 2016, 05:15:10 PM
Exactly 4 weeks until Iowa. Latest Presidential election odds from Ladbrokes: http://ow.ly/WBq2A 

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CX4xcjMWQAAPnCJ.png)

Mint, what do you think of those odds?

Sorry, didn't notice your post. I don't know much about betting but those don't look right to me. Hillary can't be odds-on at this stage. Sanders looks like the best bet there. I'll try it write something a bit fuller later.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on January 12, 2016, 10:54:15 AM
Just three weeks to go and two new polls put Trump back in the lead in Iowa

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/11/just-three-weeks-to-go-and-two-new-polls-put-trump-back-in-the-lead-iniowa/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on January 13, 2016, 10:58:19 AM
New NYT/CBS poll: Hillary Clinton's lead over Bernie Sanders nationally has largely melted away http://nyti.ms/1l4icqo


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on January 14, 2016, 10:59:11 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYoKIwtUsAAKbUf.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on January 14, 2016, 10:59:36 AM
The best thing yet on the Trumphenomenon http://nyer.cm/XFY3C0T  via the newyorker


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on January 14, 2016, 02:37:51 PM
how Donald Trump is destroying the Republican party http://specc.ie/1Pcxvp2 


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on January 14, 2016, 02:41:38 PM
The best thing yet on the Trumphenomenon http://nyer.cm/XFY3C0T  via the newyorker

Very good.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: booder on January 15, 2016, 12:12:21 PM
Trump got Soul

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/watch/trump-does-dramatic-reading-of-the-snake-601073219697?cid=sm_fb_msnbc_native


YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULx9k2QkL94


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on January 15, 2016, 02:53:21 PM
Watched some of the debate last night. It was quite worrying how much of the focus was on Obama trying to steal the guns, worst president ever, weakened our country etc.

Started watching Obama's last state of the union address, and he's definitely much more impressive than any of those in the debate.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on January 16, 2016, 10:48:04 AM
trump now in clear lead in the betting following another confident debate performance -

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/15/trump-now-in-clear-lead-in-the-betting-following-another-confident-debate-performance/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on January 16, 2016, 12:54:27 PM
Is the prospect of Trump leading the free world more or less bizarre than an actor getting the gig in the 1980s?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Woodsey on January 16, 2016, 02:15:01 PM
Is the prospect of Trump leading the free world more or less bizarre than an actor getting the gig in the 1980s?

About as bizarre as Corbyn being voted in as leader of the Labour Party I reckon.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on January 17, 2016, 11:47:50 AM
Bernie Sanders is threatening to deliver a blow to Hillary Clinton's campaign in the first two primary contests:

http://nyer.cm/BH43lhi


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on January 17, 2016, 03:35:28 PM
Bernie Sanders is threatening to deliver a blow to Hillary Clinton's campaign in the first two primary contests:

http://nyer.cm/BH43lhi

I think his analysis that "the sight of the longtime front-runner losing the first two Democratic votes would be pretty shocking" is a bit off. Sanders has long been expected to take New Hampshire, while Iowa has been close on and off. In contrast with the Republicans, these two states won't have much effect on the Democrat race and losing them wouldn't hurt Clinton, who is heading for a big result on Super Tuesday, possibly even winning the nomination on 1 March.

There is also the paradox that early wins could raise expectations which Sanders doesn't meet and hasten his exit. Conversely, losing Iowa could dampen expectations, meaning he might do badly on Super Tuesday but still outperform expectations and receive the media and money he needs to survive.  The next states are also difficult for Sanders but, if he can survive March and take the campaign into April, he has a chance.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on January 20, 2016, 01:42:08 AM
As rumoured, Sarah Palin has endorsed Trump. It's quite a coup for Trump as, despite her reputation here and amongst US liberals, Palin still has strong following in certain quarters. Cruz should have been her natural choice rather than the sometime liberal Trump, so it is a blow to him, especially as she has endorsed him in the past. If Trump blows up, Cruz will hope to inherit Palin's support so, for now, he has had to just smile and say how much he still admires her.

With a sense of deja-vu from when she was a candidate, Palin's children were back in the news, with both Bristol and Track making headlines this week.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/sarah-palin-backs-donald-trumps-2016-bid/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on January 20, 2016, 11:06:55 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZIwxvtWYAAdLqm.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on January 20, 2016, 11:07:33 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZHgouDW0AE_luQ.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on January 24, 2016, 02:42:19 AM
Exactly 4 weeks until Iowa. Latest Presidential election odds from Ladbrokes: http://ow.ly/WBq2A  

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CX4xcjMWQAAPnCJ.png)

Mint, what do you think of those odds?

Sorry, didn't notice your post. I don't know much about betting but those don't look right to me. Hillary can't be odds-on at this stage. Sanders looks like the best bet there. I'll try it write something a bit fuller later.

I promised to write more about this, but then I went on holiday and one thing and another. Had a lovely time, thanks for asking. Anyway, I may not know much about betting, but I do know that the odds stated were daft. This is an unstable situation and big leaders at the start of election year fail to win their parties' nominations as often as they hold on.

Starting with the Democrats, it is likely that whichever of them gets the nomination will win the Presidency by some distance against any of the Republicans, except maybe Rubio, who might run them close, or maybe Trump, who might cut up rough.

Clinton is not yet a shoo-in, even for the Democrat nomination. She had a huge lead over Sanders at the start of 2016 - pretty much the same lead she had over Obama at the same stage in 2008. However, front-runners fail to win the nomination time after time. Apart from the normal reasons, which could occur (as they did in 2008), Clinton has some particular vulnerabilities:

- Firstly, if Trump is the GOP candidate, it could get rough, as he is likely to dredge up every real or contrived scandal involving either Clinton over the last forty years. A lot of Democrats are already looking at Sanders as a more Trump-proof candidate.

- Secondly, irrespective of who is the Republican nominee, there could be a new scandal, or new life for an existing one. With the Clintons, you can never rule it out. The worst scenario for the party would be for her to win the nomination and then have a scandal emerge between then and November. If there is one, the party would hope for it to come out while they can still choose a different candidate.

- Third, she could have another health scare. Or Bill could have one, which would probably also affect her figures.

In 2008, she was against an unusual opponent. But this time, she is again. Sanders is an outsider, though one on the inside, if that makes any sense. He has been in Congress for ever, but has remained an Independent and only joined the Democrat party a couple of months ago (Nov 2015, I think). He calls himself a Democratic Socialist, which you would think would be enough to end his hopes in the US. He is well regarded for his Senate work, though, and you can find plenty of examples on YouTube of him cutting through the smokescreens and holding bankers and others to account. Last March, he was showing between 2-5% in every poll, with Clinton around 60%. Something happened last Summer, and he started drawing massive crowds, much bigger than anyone else on either side, and his numbers shot up, to a high point around Oct/Nov and though they dropped a little by year-end, they have since recovered. He is now leading in both New Hampshire and Iowa.

Unusually for Hillary, she is not the liberal in this race. Sanders is more liberal on just about everything except gun control, which she may be able to use. You can make a strong argument for either of them, though Clinton has the upper hand.  Sanders could do very well in the early Northern white States, but there are a lot of bad States for him in March and he will be in survival mode throughout the whole month. Super Tuesday will be hugely important - Clinton will win big, but the margin will be critical.

Overall, the odds quoted were ridiculous, with Clinton showing as odds-on. I assume Sanders' odds may be a bit shorter now. If you want to back Clinton, I would probably do it straight after New Hampshire (9 Feb), which will be bad for her. For Sanders, possibly after his bad results come in on Super Tuesday (1 Mar), though 8 Mar and 15 Mar should also see poor results for him. I am assuming there that the betting market reacts to good/bad results, but it may be that they anticipate them and factor them into the odds before the elections. I'm sure you know better whether this happens. If someone wants to back Clinton, I would take the bet. Of all the candidates, she is the most likely to win, but she should be more than evens, even without the health/scandal possibilities.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on January 24, 2016, 03:04:20 AM
There is a lot of speculation now that three-time Mayor of New York Michael Bloomberg might enter the race, especially if it comes down to Trump or Cruz against Sanders, with no-one representing the mainstream. He is pro-business, but liberal on several issues, which could mean that he takes votes from Clinton rather than the Republican. He is many times richer than Trump, so funding is not an issue.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e25f28d6-c0f8-11e5-9fdb-87b8d15baec2.html#axzz3y7Htthop

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/24/nyregion/bloomberg-sensing-an-opening-revisits-a-potential-white-house-run.html?_r=0


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on January 24, 2016, 10:06:15 AM
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538

Thoughts on the state of the GOP race -- and why I've become a lot less skeptical of Trump's chances: http://53eig.ht/1S7wR1c


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on January 24, 2016, 10:30:36 AM
Read this recently on Trump's debating style

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/126589300371/clown-genius

Now starting to think that rather than being a dangerous idiot, Trump is actually an evil genius (in terms of the way he is becoming a contender, not his actual politics).

He is peddling a bunch of easy answers and America, a country where pizza is considered a vegetable, love that. Starting to think the impossible may happen come November.

Tempted to have a bet on him to become President, so I can enjoy a nice steak dinner at a fancy restaurant, before he destroys the planet.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on January 24, 2016, 11:29:13 AM
I don't think I would put any bets on Trump for Pres. It now seems possible he could win the nomination, with the party seniors being more anti-Cruz than anti-Trump and potentially holding their nose and supporting him if it is the only way to keep Cruz out. Any of the others could still hit some momentum, though it is hard to pick which one it would be. Many in the party would love Paul Ryan to step in. But, yes, Trump could get the ticket, so that could be a bet.

His real problem is the general election. Outside the Republican party, he has terrible likeability scores and he shows up very poorly in head-to-head polls against both Clinton and Sanders. There is a possibility of him taking the party into a landslide defeat.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

(ps I think Cruz' H2Hs are overstated in these polls. He also has hugely unfavourable likeability, even within his own party.)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on January 25, 2016, 01:35:44 PM
Seven days til Iowa.

Sanders has turned an 18-point deficit in the State in December into an 8-point lead last week and has a 27-point lead in New Hampshire.Clinton is solid in the next State, South Carolina, but a 1-2 loss could start a domino effect.

In the Republican race, Trump has recovered the ground lost to Cruz, turning a 4-point deficit into an 11-point lead in two weeks, with the rest nowhere. There is some suggestion that his gains were amongst those less likely to vote, but it's still impressive.

Republicans are very aware of what happened in 2012, when Santorum won Iowa, despite trailing in single-digit sixth place until two weeks before the caucus. Even on election day, a poll gave him 18%, 5 points behind Romney and 4 behind Ron Paul, but he actually received over 24% of the votes.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Jimbo82 on January 26, 2016, 03:56:35 AM
Hilary Clinton - I would bet my life on it


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on January 26, 2016, 04:14:01 AM
Don't go mad, Jimbo... Just pile into the 9/10 with Victor :D


Enjoyed reading those write-ups, MintTrav.

Cheers for taking the time to write them.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on January 26, 2016, 10:45:43 AM
"To have doubted Trump is to have given the Republican Party credit...for being able to avoid a potential disaster."

http://53eig.ht/1PgH6PX


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on January 26, 2016, 11:24:19 AM
Five Thirty Eight have started up a weekly podcast on the election.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/elections-podcast-one-week-to-iowa/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RickBFA on January 26, 2016, 11:25:40 PM
 Watched the channel 4 documentary on Trump.

Obviously not his biggest fans :-)

The more you see and read about him, the more you wonder about the sanity of US voters.





Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: BigAdz on January 27, 2016, 04:33:12 AM
Watched the channel 4 documentary on Trump.

Obviously not his biggest fans :-)

The more you see and read about him, the more you wonder about the sanity of US voters.






Worrying every time I see his price shorten on the front page of Oddschecker Rick.

That said, seeing Hilary odds on doesn't fill me with hope either.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on January 27, 2016, 03:13:19 PM
The Republican Race - Trump or Cruz?

Five days to go and Iowa is on a knife-edge. A Fox poll two days ago had Trump 34-23 ahead of Cruz in the State, but a university poll yesterday had him just 31-29 ahead. Cruz is campaigning hard and has a much better ground operation in the State, so Trump spent yesterday in.........New Hampshire. He is well ahead there and there is another week after Iowa before NH, but that's where he was. Maybe he is very confident. He has recovered the lead in Iowa that Cruz nicked a few weeks ago, but victory is far from certain.  

Things do seem to be coming together for Trump, though. The voters, the party leaders and most of Congress are coming on-side. Okay, the latter two groups are not actually on his side so much as anti-Cruz, but they will live with Trump if they have to. This is bad news for Rubio, with party leaders (who would prefer him) seemingly abandoning him for Trump. Trump has also collected some endorsements that should naturally belong to Cruz - Jerry Falwell, Sherriff Joe Arpaio, Sarah Palin - all crazies, but all hugely influential.

The party leaders hate Cruz mainly because he ignored all the established ways of behaving in Congress. He arrived in Washington with an arrogant attitude and refused to serve his time working his way up the party, he insulted everyone in public, told his own leaders that they weren't conservative enough and they were giving Obama and the Democrats an easy ride, he called Senate Majority (ie Republican) Leader Mitch McConnell a "flat-out" liar on the floor of the Senate and he managed to close down government for sixteen days against the wishes of both parties (I still can't figure out how he was able to do that). They regarded his grandstanding as being largely for outside consumption, to make himself appear as the anti-establishment campaigner who was taking on the vested interests in DC, rather than working for the good of the country. There has been tons of stuff said by just about all the senior Republicans about him (and by him about them). Just a flavour:
John McCain: 'You're wrong. You're crazy.' Also called him a 'wacko bird'.
John Boehner (Republican Speaker of the House): 'That jackass'
George W Bush: 'I just don't like the guy.'
Bob Dole: 'I don’t know how he’s going to deal with Congress. Nobody likes him.'

Possibly even more critical is that many in the general body of Republican Congressmen seem to have given up on winning the White House. There are many other elections held the same day as the Presidential one and they are worried about the negative coattail effect that Cruz would have, as the Republicans could lose their majorities in the Senate and maybe even in the House of Representatives (and some are personally at risk for their jobs). They reckon that Cruz alienates people and appeals only to a narrow very conservative element, whereas Trump has more crossover/mainstream appeal and might result in fewer GOP losses. Trump will undoubtedly morph into a liberal as soon as he secures the GOP ticket, and they seem okay with lending the party to him for a few months in order to come out with a better situation after November.

But it's not only anyone-but-Cruz - there are anyone-but-Trump advocates as well. There is a concern that, if Trump takes Iowa, he will pick up NH and will then be unstoppable. Even Cruz has admitted this http://cbn.com/tv/embedplayernews.aspx?bcid=4721418480001 (ever watched Christian Broadcasting Network before?). So it has been suggested that whoever you support, you should vote for Cruz in Iowa, being the only candidate who can keep the race alive.

Rubio/Bush/Kasich/Christie are all pinning their hopes on doing well in New Hampshire, and we should see some drop-outs after that, which will help whichever of them survives, as they are currently splitting the mainstream vote. The best strategy for the mainstream is obvious - they need to agree on a single candidate soon or they are going to lose a bunch of States. One of them would expect to attract the majority of the others' support (and would free Congressmen to come out with endorsements for them). But no-one really knows which of them is best-placed. Paul/Fiorina/Santorum/Huckabee have no chance in New Hampshire and are polling 1-4% in Iowa. Iowa is a Bible-thumping state, so if Santorum or Huckabee can't make an impression there, you have to wonder what is the point. For some reason, Carson is still raking in donations, but his candidacy must be a lost cause. Rubio has received the endorsement of the Des Moines Register, which is worth more than you might think and he is hoping to capitalise. He is the clear third-placed candidate, both in Iowa and nationally but his organisation in Iowa is light, so a surprise on Monday seems unlikely.

Another reason people are not dropping out is the Koch Brothers. They own the second-largest private company in the US and, along with some others, have pledged to spend almost a billion dollars on the election, but no-one knows how much candidates would get each. They summoned Bush, Cruz and Rubio (and Walker) to two beauty-parades in 2015. Paul was at the first but bombed and was dropped from the second. They have since expressed admiration for Fiorina. That kind of funding would put you in the Trump/Bloomberg league and could resuscitate a struggling campaign (paradoxically, Trump hasn't spent much so far as he getting all the publicity anyway).

In other news, Hillary's camp has apparently concluded that Trump is nailed on for the Republican ticket and has commenced 'research' on his past activities. Really. I'd have thought that everything would already be known about someone like him, but things do come up......


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on January 27, 2016, 05:15:32 PM
Cruz tried to delay the progress of the Obama's healthcare reforms in 2013, although it was pointless, as he couldn't force a vote because he didn't have the support of most of his party, who were in a hurry to agree the Federal budget. He said he would continue to speak until he could no longer stand and ended up speaking for 21 hours. The rules allow allies to help by interrupting with questions, which can turn into mini-speeches within a speech, but he has to remain there even when he's not speaking to retain the floor. Now Cruz is a hell of a speaker - he won both the US National Debating Championship and the North American Debating Championship when he was at Princeton, but staying on topic for that long is obviously very difficult, and there are several bizarre sections involving subjects such as burgers, Duck Dynasty, Ashton Kutcher and an impersonation of Darth Vader, but none as strange as when he incorporated a bedtime story for his children into the speech. This was supposed to be a discussion on healthcare reform. Politics is mad sometimes.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-4FQAov2xI


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on January 28, 2016, 11:05:26 AM
thought this was interesting

movement of candidtates through the hustings

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZwKDeoWkAEKFpJ.png)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Doobs on January 29, 2016, 12:56:09 AM
Trump is called a Wazzock by a British MP to much confusion on the other side of the pond.

(http://i100.independent.co.uk/image/24920-sapfi5.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on January 29, 2016, 10:22:18 AM
(http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03562/a_republican-debat_3562042b.jpg)

Such a strange lineup shot from last night's debate. Paul seems to have left his proper shoes behind and had to wear some Hush Puppies instead. Christie has eaten so much he can't close his jacket. Carson is wearing clown shoes.Cruz and Rubio are doing the Osborne stand. Bush is trying to break out a candidate cliché pose but doing it badly, and that guy who joins in football team photos has slipped onto the end unnoticed.

In shock news, Bush won big while Rubio and Cruz were under pressure. Christie also had a good night.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on January 29, 2016, 10:29:56 AM
(http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03562/a_republican-debat_3562042b.jpg)

Such a strange lineup shot from last night's debate. Paul seems to have left his proper shoes behind and had to wear some Hush Puppies instead. Christie has eaten so much he can't close his jacket. Carson is wearing clown shoes.Cruz and Rubio are doing the Osborne stand. Bush is trying to break out a candidate cliché pose but doing it badly, and that guy who joins in football team photos has slipped onto the end unnoticed.

In shock news, Bush won big while Rubio and Cruz were under pressure. Christie also had a good night.



Was the absence of Trump like a big elephant in the room? Did they talk about him at all?

Feels like potentially a masterful powerplay for him not to be there if he can still make it about him.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on January 29, 2016, 11:08:58 AM
(http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03562/a_republican-debat_3562042b.jpg)

Such a strange lineup shot from last night's debate. Paul seems to have left his proper shoes behind and had to wear some Hush Puppies instead. Christie has eaten so much he can't close his jacket. Carson is wearing clown shoes.Cruz and Rubio are doing the Osborne stand. Bush is trying to break out a candidate cliché pose but doing it badly, and that guy who joins in football team photos has slipped onto the end unnoticed.

In shock news, Bush won big while Rubio and Cruz were under pressure. Christie also had a good night.



Was the absence of Trump like a big elephant in the room? Did they talk about him at all?

Feels like potentially a masterful powerplay for him not to be there if he can still make it about him.

It overshadowed everything. The very first question was about "the elephant not in the room", as Megyn Kelly put it. Cruz did a funny impersonation - "I'm a maniac, and everyone on this stage is stupid, fat and ugly, and Ben, you're a terrible surgeon."
Trump managed what frontrunners always want, which is avoid the possibility of looking bad because the others set about you or you commiting a major gaffe yourself. HIs alternative event got more airtime on the non-Fox networks than the debate and he dominated Google searches all night.

http://www.vox.com/2016/1/28/10866312/donald-trump-won-the-debate
http://www.vox.com/2016/1/29/10866528/republican-debate-fox-news-winners-losers


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Simon Galloway on January 29, 2016, 11:14:08 AM

(http://i.imgur.com/eeMzuRO.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on January 29, 2016, 11:22:37 AM
(http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.2513207.1454029319!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/article_635/548353595.jpg)

Speakers in the junior debate show Bush the correct way to do a clichéd candidate pose.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on January 29, 2016, 11:36:12 AM
(http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.2513207.1454029319!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/article_635/548353595.jpg)

Speakers in the junior debate show Bush the correct way to do a clichéd candidate pose.

He ain't got shit on the UK, makes me proud to be British I tells ya

(http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/multimedia/archive/00989/3c1bf6e6-6d30-11e5-_989750b.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on January 29, 2016, 02:10:40 PM
Donald Trump redubbed as if he was on Eastenders.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cA0NM5RAY0


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 01, 2016, 10:55:23 AM
Last 10 Iowa Republican polls via pollsterpolls.

Latest odds: 1/2 Trump 2/1 Cruz 8/1 Rubio

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaHs-00WQAAEWtk.png)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on February 01, 2016, 03:09:59 PM
This explains a lot about Trumpmania.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/01/iowa-new-hampshire-gop-voters-poll.html

Note: this is a real article with real people and not an Onion spoof.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 01, 2016, 04:36:11 PM
Iowa - 0 days to go

It seems that everything depends on the turnout.

The 'non-establishment' candidates, Trump and Sanders, have attracted huge crowds to their rallies and have led most of the polls. The big question is whether their supporters turn out to vote.

Sanders' support, in particular, has been very strong amongst those most unreliable voters, young people. Another 'non-establishment' candidate, Ron Paul, was also very popular with young people in previous elections, but they didn't show up to vote. So, it is quite possible that the result won't reflect the polls. Both Sanders and Trump need record turnouts to win. Cruz and Clinton's supporters are more reliable. Cruz has put in a very strong ground campaign, shipping in 800 out-of-State campaign workers, and has personally visited all of Iowa's 99 counties. Trump has done little of that, mainly relying on his star persona for attracting support. The critical turnout level for Republicans is 130-135,000. Below that, Cruz wins; above it, Trump wins. 2012 turnout was a record 122,000, which will certainly be beaten, but by how much?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/01/ted-cruzs-magic-number-in-iowa-explained/

Rubio has put in a strong late surge, which should give him a solid third place at a minimum. But Iowa produced shock Republican winners the last two times, Huckabee in 2008 and Santorum in 2012, so who really knows?



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 01, 2016, 10:04:47 PM
Sanders' final advertisement before Iowa has been a big hit.

Like much of the Sanders campaign, it is very different from the usual campaign ads.

In truth, it is stereotypical American schmaltz with no substance, which I would have thought Sanders was better than.

Anyway, despite (or because of) that, it has been hugely popular.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nwRiuh1Cug


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: dakky on February 02, 2016, 02:34:25 AM
Last 10 Iowa Republican polls via pollsterpolls.

Latest odds: 1/2 Trump 2/1 Cruz 8/1 Rubio

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaHs-00WQAAEWtk.png)

I don't understand this. On betfair Rubio has been consistently in 2nd place a point or two behind trump and Cruz third. Currently BF odds are evens trump, 2/1 rubio 10s cruzm yet in the media and polls etc they are always saying Cruz is his main competitor?

If you can actually get 8/1 then lump on and lay it on BF :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 02, 2016, 09:25:56 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaMVXIwWkAA2Zdx.png)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on February 02, 2016, 10:55:58 AM
The TV and website coverage is all about Cruz and Trump though, as Ladbrokes point out in that PR release the significant result is that Rubio came somewhere and all the others came nowhere.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: aaron1867 on February 02, 2016, 11:11:15 AM
What is the point of the latest results? I do not understand the elections in the USA any one bit & the media do not help either. Sky News completely messed up this morning on their website saying Cruz had ousted Trump, but yet, in reality Trump can still be the candidate according to them on the TV channel.

The election is madness.

I remember some bloke from America when talking about our election, that he wishes their election was similar, rather than dragging out for 18 months or so


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: PokerBroker on February 02, 2016, 11:33:28 AM
It seems to me the GOP Caucus has opted for credibility over panache.  I can't say I am sorry that Trump's bubble is bursting the man is a lunatic. 

Not that Cruz or Rubio would be much better, but marginally more credible. 


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 02, 2016, 11:54:51 AM
What is the point of the latest results? I do not understand the elections in the USA any one bit & the media do not help either. Sky News completely messed up this morning on their website saying Cruz had ousted Trump, but yet, in reality Trump can still be the candidate according to them on the TV channel.

The election is madness.

I remember some bloke from America when talking about our election, that he wishes their election was similar, rather than dragging out for 18 months or so

This vote just shared out the delegates for one small State. When all the States are done, we'll see who has the most. At this stage, it is really about who has momentum and who exceeds or underachieves against expectations, largely with a view to keeping donations coming in. Not only can Trump still be the candidate, it could conceivably be Bush, Christie or Kasich. It is total madness - no doubt about that.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 03, 2016, 04:32:43 AM
Trump nominated for Nobel Peace Prize

He has been nominated for "his vigorous peace through strength ideology, used as a threat weapon of deterrence against radical Islam, ISIS, nuclear Iran and Communist China".

http://www.afp.com/en/news/trump-greek-islanders-running-nobel-prize


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 03, 2016, 11:15:05 AM
An incredible 84% of under 30s voted for Sanders in IowaCaucus.

Whether he wins or not, something big is happening

 http://ind.pn/1nBYNie


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DungBeetle on February 03, 2016, 08:12:31 PM
An incredible 84% of under 30s voted for Sanders in IowaCaucus.

Whether he wins or not, something big is happening

 http://ind.pn/1nBYNie

Not a big follower of American politics but isn't this just the usual "young people vote left?"


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 03, 2016, 08:14:40 PM
An incredible 84% of under 30s voted for Sanders in IowaCaucus.

Whether he wins or not, something big is happening

 http://ind.pn/1nBYNie

Not a big follower of American politics but isn't this just the usual "young people vote left?"

in part, but the suggestion is (a bit like the election of corbyn), energising (young) non-voters to a "new kind of politics" and getting them voting is a big difference to past elections


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on February 03, 2016, 09:20:48 PM
An incredible 84% of under 30s voted for Sanders in IowaCaucus.

Whether he wins or not, something big is happening

 http://ind.pn/1nBYNie

Not a big follower of American politics but isn't this just the usual "young people vote left?"

in part, but the suggestion is (a bit like the election of corbyn), energising (young) non-voters to a "new kind of politics" and getting them voting is a big difference to past elections


My interpretation is that the Yanks are so sick of the money involved in campaigning for office and the inevitability that whether it's a Republican or a Democrat, the President will invariably be in the pockets of the big companies who make big campaign donations. So in stark contrast to that you have Trump on one end who doesn't need the money, and Sanders on the other end who wants to put in a 90% tax rate on the rich.

Either way a new kind of politics as you say.

If it comes down to Sanders vs Trump, it will however be a choice between a man who will die in office vs a man who will get us all killed.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 04, 2016, 10:07:37 AM
Goodbye, Rand Paul; goodbye, GOP dovishness http://53eig.ht/20GW5qa 


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 05, 2016, 12:46:39 AM
An incredible 84% of under 30s voted for Sanders in IowaCaucus.

Whether he wins or not, something big is happening

 http://ind.pn/1nBYNie

He had a landslide amongst the young people who voted.

Unfortunately for him, very few of them did.

Young people - you just can't depend on them to show up.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 05, 2016, 12:49:24 AM
The first national poll since Iowa shows Trump's support declining severely, though still in first place, with Rubio being the main beneficiary.

PPP Polls     16/17 Dec    2/3 Feb
                        %             %
Trump              34             25
Cruz                 18             21
Rubio                13             21
Carson                6             11

Rubio is now leading in head-to-heads against both Trump and Cruz.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/02/republican-race-tightens-nationally-clinton-still-solid.html



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: muckthenuts on February 05, 2016, 01:00:53 AM
Trump's 10 minutes of political fame hopefully up and he'll fade further into insignificance as the election goes on. I really can't see all this being anything other than a long irrelevant process before confirming Hillary Clinton as next President, but it being America it'll be fun to follow the ride nonetheless.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 05, 2016, 10:45:48 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaZ2M02UMAAzSn3.png)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 05, 2016, 03:07:32 PM
Couple of titbits:

No Republican has ever won the nomination without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire.

No Republican has ever won both States.

Iowa tends to go for a very right-wing religious candidate. New Hampshire is much more centrist.

The last two Iowa winners fitted the mould, but they were already doomed even at that point. Huckabee and Santorum were broke, with only $300k and $100k of campaign funds available at the times they took Iowa.

This year's Iowa winner is a very different prospect. Between the funds he has raised and his Super-PAC, Cruz has $48m available right now. Apart from Bush, who has $50m, the rest have a lot less, with the third-highest having less than half of Cruz' total and it goes down from there. Makes a massive difference when it comes to TV advertising and on-the-ground organization.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 06, 2016, 06:11:49 PM
So former Senator Rick Santorum dropped out and endorsed Rubio.

What do you list as Marco Rubio's top accomplishment in the Senate that made you endorse him?

Well, er, um.....

Just one? List one accomplishment that Marco Rubio has achieved in four years at the United States Senate.

Yeah, well, that is, okay he didn't accomplish anything, but it wasn't his fault...........

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfEnhD9cRtU


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Tal on February 06, 2016, 06:14:11 PM
What would have happened if he'd said "I don't want anyone voting for Trump or Cruz" (which I assume is the real answer)?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 07, 2016, 10:14:50 AM
Marco Rubio had a shocker in last night’s debate http://specc.ie/1SBuuFW 

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Came_LRWAAANq8O.jpg)



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: nirvana on February 07, 2016, 11:42:35 AM
Oh man, Rubio. Pretty Vacant


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 08, 2016, 08:42:10 PM
There's a cheque enclosed, but it's not for you. Cruz campaign plays loose with the truth again. Something also makes me doubt that the donors mentioned are about to pull the plug on funding.

If you want to make a contribution, contact details are below.

(http://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/crop_0_10_971_465scalefit_630_noupscale/56b7fea11a00002d00ab2293.png)
(http://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/scalefit_630_noupscale/56b8005c1800006f0080b705.jpeg)
(http://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/scalefit_630_noupscale/56b7fed11800002d0080b702.jpeg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: rfgqqabc on February 08, 2016, 10:23:43 PM
So former Senator Rick Santorum dropped out and endorsed Rubio.

What do you list as Marco Rubio's top accomplishment in the Senate that made you endorse him?

Well, er, um.....

Just one? List one accomplishment that Marco Rubio has achieved in four years at the United States Senate.

Yeah, well, that is, okay he didn't accomplish anything, but it wasn't his fault...........

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfEnhD9cRtU

Seems like a very manipulative question which doesn't have an answer because of the situation the Senate was in. Interestingly Trump's accomplishment was starting a business, something that seems especially important for the President of the USA to have done. Mr. Sanatorium stated he thought the Senate had been incredibly ineffective during the period Rubio was a Senator so it strikes me as a bit silly to keep asking what he did during this period. Sanatorium stated he felt like Obama achieved very little during the same period. The newscasters comments about being able to name Sanatorium's achievements are completely null and void as they weren't in the same period as Rubio was a senator. Am I completely off base with the last comment? My knowledge of the USA political system isn't the best? Rubio spent 3/4 of his time in the minority and 1/4 campaigning? It feels like it would have been hard for him t be a particularly effective memeber of the Senate during this time.

The clip strikes me as everything I hate about politics. I did watch the extended version to see if any of Sanatoriums accomplishments were listed, but apparently there were too many to name :(


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 09, 2016, 03:59:43 AM
So former Senator Rick Santorum dropped out and endorsed Rubio.

What do you list as Marco Rubio's top accomplishment in the Senate that made you endorse him?

Well, er, um.....

Just one? List one accomplishment that Marco Rubio has achieved in four years at the United States Senate.

Yeah, well, that is, okay he didn't accomplish anything, but it wasn't his fault...........

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfEnhD9cRtU

Seems like a very manipulative question which doesn't have an answer because of the situation the Senate was in. Interestingly Trump's accomplishment was starting a business, something that seems especially important for the President of the USA to have done. Mr. Sanatorium stated he thought the Senate had been incredibly ineffective during the period Rubio was a Senator so it strikes me as a bit silly to keep asking what he did during this period. Sanatorium stated he felt like Obama achieved very little during the same period. The newscasters comments about being able to name Sanatorium's achievements are completely null and void as they weren't in the same period as Rubio was a senator. Am I completely off base with the last comment? My knowledge of the USA political system isn't the best? Rubio spent 3/4 of his time in the minority and 1/4 campaigning? It feels like it would have been hard for him t be a particularly effective memeber of the Senate during this time.

The clip strikes me as everything I hate about politics. I did watch the extended version to see if any of Sanatoriums accomplishments were listed, but apparently there were too many to name :(

You are totally right of course. It was just a gotcha, which the US media have gone to town on and I was joining in with the mob.

The claim that Rubio achieved nothing is unfair anyway. His main bragging rights should have been the bill on immigration reform that he co-authored as one of the cross-party 'Gang of Eight'. It seems to have been a pretty good piece of work which, amongst other things, could have provided a (very long) route to citizenship for illegal immigrants, but it failed and attitudes have hardened so much that he is now beaten with it at every opportunity. He also introduced various other Bills, but most of them didn't make it into law, though that is normal. He is Chairman of two Senate committees and a member of about a dozen others, which carry out a lot of important work. It's not just about the Senate though - the items checked for Bush and Trump happened far away from Washington. Rubio achieved plenty when he was in Florida's House of Representatives, was nominated as Speaker just five years after first being elected and seems to have led the party and the House very successfully.

He has been a Senator, though, for five years, which is two years longer than Cruz, who has made a huge impact in the time he has been there. Rubio has combined his Senate career with being a professor at a Florida university, spending two days a week teaching, so it could be argued that the time spent on that might have led to greater Senate results.

It's true that Santorum had left the Senate before Rubio arrived, so there can't be a direct comparison.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 09, 2016, 11:26:00 AM
stretching the word virtual....

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaubgDEW0AEzxn2.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 09, 2016, 11:15:20 PM
This is it. The moment the mainstream has been waiting for. Iowa is largely conservative, religious and white. New Hampshire, on the other hand, is liberal, secular and white. Both elect candidates who reflect the population. As mentioned before, no Republican has ever won both States, though it has happened on the Democrat side.

Unless they punch someone, Trump and Sanders should win easily today. Even then, they'd most likely still win. Unless something extraordinary happens, the Democrat election can safely be ignored - it's not as fun as the Republican and none of it really matters until Super Tuesday.

This is the time when one of the mainstream Republicans is supposed to be revealed as the anointed one who will then come through and save the party. The field was Governor-heavy not long ago (the so-called 'deep bench' of Governors), almost all of whom were regarded as a safe pair of hands and the party expected that one or two of them would be coming good by now. Unfortunately, none of them have and they have been dropping out faster than you can keep count, with only three 'safe pairs of hands' remaining - Bush, Christie and Kasich. One of their problems is that there isn't that much between them in the polls, so no-one has a reason to drop out and Rubio's dodgy debate performance could improve the vote of any or all of them. Bush has by far the most cash, so he may be able to outlast the others and get to a three or four-way contest, when the moderate support would all come to him. He isn't looking very leader-like these days, though. Christie is off the pace in the polls, so going for broke and duffing up Rubio was a good strategy. He has been targeting Rubio for ages and there is genuine personal animosity between them going back quite a way (made worse by Rubio nicking some large donors Christie had been grooming for years), but he landed harder than ever before in the debate.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Kasich coming through strongly tonight. Who? He's the one on the end who you don't recognise in the debate line-ups. This is his cup final. He skipped Iowa entirely to give everything here and was the only candidate in the State for part of last week. He has made lots of good points in the debates and avoided all the nasty stuff. It could be that no-one noticed what he said and they don't care anyway cos they're not worried about him. He is still there, though, when a lot of others aren't, despite having done nothing memorable. It could be his time, not to win, but to get a high finish as the leading moderate.

There is little to choose in the polls between Cruz, Rubio, Bush and Kasich. Cruz said a week ago that fourth would be a good result for him in NH, so he may do better than that. Rubio should have nailed second, but is looking weak. Fiorina and Carson are getting nothing in this one.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Longines on February 10, 2016, 01:11:38 AM
Really appreciate everyones posts on this thread, especially MinTrav - keep them coming please.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 10, 2016, 04:00:39 AM
Watch out for any of the main candidates slipping below 10% of the vote. As well as positioning for the future States, the candidates want to collect delegates. States have different rules and NH is one of those that distributes delegates proportionately. However, candidates need to achieve 10% of the vote or they get none. The first-placed candidate's haul is disproportionate as they get all the left-over delegates. Cruz, Rubio, Kasich and Bush are all hovering around 10-15% and they will be desperate to keep their heads above the 10% line. So say it turns out something like Trump 35%, Kasich 16%, Bush 12%, Cruz 12%, Rubio 10%, Christie 8% and the other two plus ex-candidates still on the ballot sharing 8% between them. Kasich, Bush, Cruz and Rubio would get their proportionate share of the delegates, but Trump would get 50% and the rest would get none. If Rubio slipped to 9%, he would get no delegates either and Trump would be up to 60%.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 10, 2016, 11:03:18 AM
the anit-trump vote is badly split in the republican race, and is hading trump delegates

what is it that keeps the also rans in the race? vanity? arrogance? thinking they can still win? hoping for future influence?

or is it that they stay in until donors give up?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on February 10, 2016, 11:58:32 AM
the anit-trump vote is badly split in the republican race, and is hading trump delegates

what is it that keeps the also rans in the race? vanity? arrogance? thinking they can still win? hoping for future influence?

or is it that they stay in until donors give up?

Usually, by now, the field has thinned out already.

This year though, I think people were just waiting for Trumpmania to burst, and so there would be votes coming their way at some point. That now looks as though it's not going to happen.

Carly Fiorina will almost certainly drop out soon, and I think even someone as deluded as Ben Carson might get the message from 2% in New Hampshire.

Ted Cruz is going nowhere, ever, as he's doing God's work.

The others all have reason to stay in - Kasich just got a good 2nd in NH, Rubio still sees himself as the establishment candidate, and Bush has more money than the others so even if he drops back in the polls, he can use the strategy of spending like crazy and force the others to burn through their cashpiles.

And I forgot about Christie - even though everyone said he won the last debate in NH, he still came 6th and he doesn't seem crazy, so he might get the message and knock it on the head.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 10, 2016, 11:58:49 AM
The GOP nomination race is effectively now down to just 5

(http://www2.politicalbetting.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/1102016103420.jpg)

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/10/the-gop-nomination-race-is-effectively-now-down-to-just-5/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 10, 2016, 12:12:15 PM
who is the value John?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ca2VK0kXIAAQX0C.png)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 10, 2016, 01:00:40 PM
Why don't no-hopers drop out? All the reasons you said, plus everything Andrew said. Quite often they can still win, even though it looks like a lost cause at certain times. Bush Snr, Clinton, Dubya and Obama were all dead & buried at some point, but came back to win the nomination. But yeah, it seems a forlorn hope that Fiorina, Carson, Christie or Kasich can go all the way.

Take Kasich for example. On paper, he looks like the perfect candidate. Famous as a student for writing to Nixon with his views on the country and somehow bagging a meeting with the Pres, he was elected to Congress at a young age and is the only runner with both Washington and Governor experience, having put in 18 years in the House of Reps, where he was a leading member and co-operated cross-party with Pres Clinton on several issues. He then spent seven years as MD of Ohio's branch of Lehman Bros, while simultaneously hosting his on show on Fox, before becoming Governor of Ohio, where he is now in his second term. And he comes across as a nice guy, still hugely popular in his State, who has stayed out of the mud-slinging. However, he has one big problem - the guy has no money. I mean, he is loaded compared with most of us, but not when it comes to funding a Presidential campaign. He bet everything on NH and held over a hundred Town Halls. Now there is little cash left so, instead of building on his success, he is skipping the next few States, including all of Super Tuesday, and focusing on another all-out assault on Michigan. In one way it makes no sense, as he will never get enough delegates to win. All I can think is that he is trying to build his influence. Also, there is a VP slot going and, realistically, he has a better shot at that than the main job. You would never make Cruz, Trump or Carson your Veep, but Kasich would be perfect.

Similarly, Carson also seems to be trying to cherry-pick States where he can pick up delegates. He didn't bother with NH, as he knew it wasn't his kind of place and was already in South Carolina yesterday. He made an odd statement about being happy to be Trump's VP, which sounded like he was giving up, but apparently he isn't.

Another reason some of them stay in is that it usually takes a couple of attempts to win your party's nomination, so they want to maximise their results and their name recognition with a view to 2020. Nowadays even candidates in their sixties can realistically hope for another shot.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 10, 2016, 01:12:12 PM
thank you

i see some chatter that people are backing Bush for GOP at fancy prices

very well funded, Cruz a god botherer, Rubio poor performance recently, eventually the field has to unite behind a non-trump candidate

is that something realistic?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on February 10, 2016, 01:36:18 PM
Bush was 20/1 for the nomination a week ago - now into 5/1, which would have seemed crazy just after Pleaseclapgate.

He's benefitting from Rubio's bandwagon shedding wheels at an alarming rate and being seen as a safe pair of hands.

Kasich is favourite for the VP slot as being Governer of Ohio can help deliver the swingiest of swingy states.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on February 10, 2016, 02:02:45 PM
Really appreciate everyones posts on this thread, especially MinTrav - keep them coming please.

+1, makes very interesting reading


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 10, 2016, 02:16:29 PM
thank you

i see some chatter that people are backing Bush for GOP at fancy prices

very well funded, Cruz a god botherer, Rubio poor performance recently, eventually the field has to unite behind a non-trump candidate

is that something realistic?

I would say it's realistic. I have no idea who will win. Clinton's team thinks it will be Trump. I would say it is down to four, as Kasich can't fund a winning campaign, but any of the four could win, even Bush. One thing certain is that it is going to be a very long campaign and we may not know the candidate until June.

Cruz may be a God-botherer, but there are a lot of God-botherers in America and a lot of them vote Republican and he should have a free run at the God-bothering vote when Carson joins Huckabee and Santorum on the bench. And there is a hell of a lot more to Cruz than that. In some regards he is one of the most impressive candidates ever. Of course, in others, he is a terrible candidate, but he can't be dismissed as just a religious nut. This is the lawyer who won more cases at the Supreme Court than anyone in history.

Rubio is in a bizarre situation. Christie really skewered him and everyone is watching him now for examples of repetition and planned soundbites. This is pretty unfair, as that's what all of them do all the time. You will hear what is essentially the same speech repeated many times by all of them, which they would say is just reinforcing the points they want to get across. And they will use prepared soundbites all the time. Even Christie's attack on Rubio was itself a prepared speech/soundbite. But Rubio can't now do what the rest of them can. Any time he re-uses a line, it will be held up as an example of his 'programming'. It is likely that the media care more about it than the voters, but donors may not like it. The clip from Saturday could become his 'Oops Moment', when it all started to go wrong, or it might blow over.

Bush could come through. He is the only candidate (apart from Kasich) that most of us would think says a lot of sensible stuff. To my mind, their views are the closest thing the US has to the Conservative Party. Once it comes to the general election, he has a better chance of picking up Independent support than Cruz or Rubio.

We may get to a four-way race, with Trump picking up the populist vote, Cruz and Rubio sharing the conservatives and Bush getting the moderates. Something would have to give between Cruz and Rubio, leaving three runners collecting about a third each from three parts of the party. Who knows what would happen then? If you are getting good odds on Bush, it could be worth a shot.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 10, 2016, 02:40:12 PM
is the vast majority of what Sanders wants impossible while Ryan is speaker?

If Obama think he had problems with Republican houses...


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 10, 2016, 08:21:29 PM
is the vast majority of what Sanders wants impossible while Ryan is speaker?

If Obama think he had problems with Republican houses...

Yeah, true. The Republicans could lose their majority, though. The Senate is definitely up for grabs but, especially if Cruz is the candidate, there is a possibility of the electorate becoming so alienated that the House could fall to the Democrats as well. Assuming that doesn't happen, it will be tough (though the same would apply to Hillary). Even if the Democrats did manage to take the House, he might be in a Corbyn situation, with popular support but a lot of his own side not agreeing with what he wants to do.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: neeko on February 10, 2016, 08:36:19 PM
I thought it was nearly impossible for the dems to win the house as the republicans had gerrymandered the districts to the point where they win every time now.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 10, 2016, 08:55:49 PM
I thought it was nearly impossible for the dems to win the house as the republicans had gerrymandered the districts to the point where they win every time now.

Well it's possible but, yeah, highly unlikely.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 10, 2016, 09:11:24 PM
This ad is going to haunt Trump. It shows numerous examples of the liberal or moderate positions he had taken over the years and is designed to alienate conservative voters. He has since changed his position on some of these issues and he clarified his position on others in his book, but some of the clips shown are very recent. The views he expresses seem very rational in most cases, bu that won't do him any good.

The ad has been put out, not by arch-conservatIves, but by Mitt Romney's Deputy Campaign Director from the last election, ie it has come from the mainstream in a blatant establishment attempt to damage him.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcUCLwWCihE


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: neeko on February 10, 2016, 09:17:27 PM
Robert Costa of the Washington post tweeting that Fiorina will quit later today, Sky saying that Cristie will as well.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Poacky3s on February 11, 2016, 01:17:04 AM
Robert Costa of the Washington post tweeting that Fiorina will quit later today, Sky saying that Cristie will as well.

Sure I caught on the news earlier that Cristie has pulled out now. Trump done a lot better than most thought he would in yesterdays vote and Rubio got hammered as well, still early days but it's looking like the unthinkable could actually happen...


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 11, 2016, 01:40:33 AM
(http://theconservativetreehouse.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/rupert-murdoch-tweet-christie.jpg?)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 11, 2016, 02:50:34 AM
Rubio will be glad to see Christie go. Christie has been prodding him for quite a while and kept calling him "The Boy in the Bubble", due to Rubio's reluctance to engage in free-rolling Town Hall discussions, rather than just set-piece debates. It was known all last week that Christie was planning an assault on Rubio at the debate, though the specific content wasn't known. The irony of Christie attacking Rubio for delivering and repeating prepared sound-bites, by delivering and repeating a prepared sound-bite of his own, seems to have been lost.

There are discussions on the web about whether Christie was only there as Jeb!'s wing-man to take down Rubio. Some saying that the establishment is annoyed, as he was supposed to stay in longer, but he had had enough. Who knows - there might be some truth or it could all be nonsense.

Some woman dropped out too, which was a bit of a surprise as most people thought she had already dropped out before Christmas.

Notice how they "suspend" their campaigns. If they terminate them, they have to return any unused donations, or give them to charity and it all gets a bit awkward. By suspending the campaign, it is still alive and they can pay off bills and run down the organization more smoothly. They can also re-enter quite easily if they change their minds or circumstances change, which has happened before. Ross Perot and Gary Hart both did it (there may be others who I haven't thought of) and there have been rumours of Jim Webb re-entering this time.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 11, 2016, 03:10:57 AM
So Sanders received 60% of the votes in NH to Clinton's 38%. Therefore he will receive 15 delegates from the State, while Clinton will have.......15 delegates.

The reason is super-delegates. Clinton picked up 9 delegates from the voters, but she had already banked all 6 of the State's super-delegates. These are generally local elected officials and so on. The voted delegates are supposed to vote at the Convention according to the State vote, but the super-delegates can vote for whoever they like. Across the country, Clinton has about 360 super-delegates already on her side. Sanders has 8. No two ways about it - it is another method by which the establishment keeps a lid on uppity mavericks and stops them making populist power-grabs.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 11, 2016, 11:27:33 AM
The Clinton-Sanders death spiral. Can either win without turning off the white voters they need for the general

http://bit.ly/1O3ujLo


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 11, 2016, 11:28:47 AM
Jeb has spent almost $100m so far. Got 3% in IA and 11% in NH. But magically he'll beat Trump if he gets it 1-on-1?

http://53eig.ht/1We9V0e


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 11, 2016, 12:15:45 PM
Last word on Christie.

He really is unpopular in his home State of New Jersey. The comments section in this NJ site really gIves it to him.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/02/what_theyre_saying_about_chris_christies_really_ba.html


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 11, 2016, 12:42:07 PM
is the vast majority of what Sanders wants impossible while Ryan is speaker?

If Obama think he had problems with Republican houses...

Came across this article which made much the same point as you, though in relation to Clinton. Gridlock is likely with a Democrat President and a Republican House led by Ryan preventing each other from implementing their programmes.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/06/nobodys-discussing-the-biggest-campaign-issue.html


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: nirvana on February 11, 2016, 01:19:00 PM
This ad is going to haunt Trump. It shows numerous examples of the liberal or moderate positions he had taken over the years and is designed to alienate conservative voters. He has since changed his position on some of these issues and he clarified his position on others in his book, but some of the clips shown are very recent. The views he expresses seem very rational in most cases, bu that won't do him any good.

The ad has been put out, not by arch-conservatIves, but by Mitt Romney's Deputy Campaign Director from the last election, ie it has come from the mainstream in a blatant establishment attempt to damage him.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcUCLwWCihE

Man, says so much that they have to portray him as normal, centrist in European terms to make him unacceptable


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 11, 2016, 06:19:10 PM
I never understood Fiorina's campaign. She was supposedly standing up for the middle classes against the political establishment, though it's hard to project an anti-establishment image when you've been CEO of a Fortune Top 20 company. She challenged Clinton on women's rights, but she was caught out lying in the debates several times by subsequent fact-checking by the networks, most shockingly when she suggested that her daughter died from marijuana abuse when it was actually prescription drugs and alcohol.

I just couldn't get the point of her campaign. What was her message? She never seemed to be able to get any momentum or catch the headlines, but I'm not clear whether she had anything to say. Is there a message in this vacuous ad, apart from trying to change her image, maybe?

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zl_ke85HqII

The only time she really hit the headlines was when she was ignored in a diner by a woman eating her breakfast, which got more exposure than anything Fiorina said in her whole campaign.

(http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/blogs/the_slatest/2016/02/08/woman_continues_meal_during_carly_fiorina_manchester_stop/509014182_1.jpg.CROP.promovar-mediumlarge.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 11, 2016, 09:10:04 PM
Jeb! Bush stamps his authority on some no-mark who interrupts him by sitting down on his own and eating his yoghurt.


YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OE_lHQZGuM


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Jon MW on February 12, 2016, 05:30:27 PM
:)

http://www.theguardian.com/books/gallery/2016/feb/12/donald-trump-wig-of-evil-guy-larsen-in-pictures


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: neeko on February 14, 2016, 08:42:58 AM
Supreme Court justice Scalia has died overnight.

He was a very right wing republican justice, see Vanessa Selbst Twitter for more.the court is currently 5-4 in favour of republicans. Obama a democratic president would love to get a very liberal replacement approved by the senate. But that is republican so no chance - the republican senators are now wanting to delay the nomination until after the election so that they hope a republican president can pick right wing replacement.

This will be a big fight in the election


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: teddybloat on February 14, 2016, 08:53:43 AM
Is it true that he said:  "Mere factual innocence is no reason not to carry out a death sentence properly reached"

Ive  seen it widely  quoted, but it cannot be a real quote... can it?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Jon MW on February 14, 2016, 09:56:30 AM
Is it true that he said:  "Mere factual innocence is no reason not to carry out a death sentence properly reached"

Ive  seen it widely  quoted, but it cannot be a real quote... can it?

It's a bit of a read

http://news.lawreader.com/2008/08/30/barry-miller-widely-published-scalia-quote-re-innocense-is-inaccurate-we-have-to-agree/

The summary is he didn't say it. What he said contained elements of it and you might not agree with it but he wasn't 'quite' so harsh in reality as the quote suggests.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 14, 2016, 10:12:42 AM
Some analysis (not new, from Nov. 14) on how tough it will be for Obama to get a liberal SCOTUS nominee confirmed:

http://53eig.ht/1r0GMpl


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 14, 2016, 10:13:00 AM
Obama is expected to face fierce resistance to any nominee to replace Scalia http://politi.co/1oaWyTq  |


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 14, 2016, 10:13:16 AM
Scalia's death sets up big election-year battle: Obama's choice of successor could tilt court to left. http://cnn.it/1oAokJr


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Tal on February 14, 2016, 11:17:56 AM
Can he force it through with an Executive Order? And, even if he does, can the next President undo it?

Where does last night's Republican barfight leave the race? Trump clearly wants anarchy in order to show himself as the political outsider. Cruz, Rubio and Bush want a more normal, soundbyte-laden, quasi-political natter. Carson won't be there in a few months.

The more this silliness goes on, how plausible is it that the establishment and the GOP populace turn to Kasich?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 14, 2016, 05:28:52 PM
this the moment Trump showed his true colours..As a Democrat? Wapo think he lost the debate but might be wiliest yet....

 http://wpo.st/7xSB1


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 15, 2016, 02:52:25 PM
Republicans put on most explosive debate yet - a take on the weekend's TV Trumpathon http://capx.co/T897Z 


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on February 15, 2016, 04:21:29 PM
Can the Supreme Court operate with 8 judges? Are those against voting in someone new before the next election proposing that the supreme court shuts down for the best part of a year?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 16, 2016, 12:26:12 PM
The Jeb Bush family nostalgia tour isn’t working http://bit.ly/1QizcIl 

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbVSsK6UMAIyJLW.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 16, 2016, 03:11:33 PM
Team Jeb forgot to renew http://www.jebbush.com  so Trump bought the site which now forwards to Trump's site..


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 17, 2016, 07:12:39 PM
(http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/4704/production/_88308181_d26a77fe-f699-43ad-ab30-1037e85a9712.jpg)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35594007


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on February 17, 2016, 07:16:49 PM
Team Jeb forgot to renew http://www.jebbush.com  so Trump bought the site which now forwards to Trump's site..

:D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 18, 2016, 12:47:33 PM
A Ladbrokes customer has just had £15k on Trump to win the Presidency. Odds cut: 4/1 to 7/2. http://ow.ly/YsZtt 

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbfpriOWIAQl-69.png)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: bobAlike on February 18, 2016, 02:43:39 PM
Team Jeb forgot to renew http://www.jebbush.com  so Trump bought the site which now forwards to Trump's site..

:D

You've got to hand it to him. lol


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 19, 2016, 02:19:20 AM
Big win for Rubio to get Nikki Haley's endorsement three days before the SC Primary, instead of it going to Jeb!

Republicans are wetting themselves over a possible Rubio/Haley dream team.

Nimrata Nikki Randhawa was raised as a Sikh, but is now a Methodist. Governor of South Carolina for the last five years, re-elected in 2014, she is still the youngest Governor in the country. She was mentioned as a possible Presidential candidate, but would be a more viable VP possibility at this stage.

One drawback could be that they were both previously elected with Tea Party support, so she may not bring support from voters who are not already Rubio supporters.

(http://www.postandcourier.com/storyimage/CP/20160217/PC1603/160219418/AR/0/AR-160219418.jpg&maxw=800&q=90)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on February 19, 2016, 03:17:09 AM
I take it that is essentially GG for Bush, and a big negative for Trump?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 19, 2016, 03:27:54 AM
Some surprising poll results have been published.

Fox News shows Sanders leading Clinton in a national poll for the first time: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/02/18/fox-news-poll-clinton-feels-bern-trails-sanders-by-three-points-nationally.html

It could be an outlier. An NBC/WSJ poll shows Clinton still substantially ahead: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/bernie-sanders-cuts-hillary-clinton-s-national-lead-poll-n520926

What is clear, though, is that Sanders has made up considerable ground and is continuing to do so.

On the Republican side, it is NBC/WSJ with the surprise result showing Cruz ahead of Trump: http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/surprise-trump-falls-behind-cruz-national-nbc-wsj-poll-n520296

Hard to see how that can be correct.

Fox still has Trump well ahead: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/02/18/fox-news-poll-trump-still-leads-national-race-for-gop-nomination.html

So that's all clear.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on February 19, 2016, 03:34:53 AM
Haha, very peculiar.

Although, I suppose it's just a much bigger version of what goes on with the press here.

Bush has spent over $84m on his campaign, according to Wiki  :o


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 19, 2016, 03:59:32 AM
I take it that is essentially GG for Bush, and a big negative for Trump?

It's hard to see how Bush can stagger on if he gets another pasting in South Carolina. They could rationalise Iowa as not being his kind of place and in New Hampshire, he finished ahead of Rubio, so there was no reason to drop out. This time, it is possible that he will trail in last in a State where his father and brother got a lot of support. He will certainly be well behind Rubio and the other two.

He has, however, started wearing contact lenses instead of glasses this week, despite saying before Christmas that he would never do so. Maybe his new image will help. Coincidentally, his father also had a problem with the vision thing.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on February 21, 2016, 02:34:33 AM
Wow - Jeb Bush has just quit after only getting 8% in SC


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 21, 2016, 02:51:02 PM
A great night for Rubio, finishing second in a State that should have been great for Cruz, he has almost certainly become the consensus alternative to Trump. Time for a prayer:

(http://images.christianpost.com/full/94106/marco-rubio-nikki-haley-robert-moore-tim-scott.jpg)

It was a terrible night for Cruz. This was a State which was his to lose, which he did. If he loses to Trump by more than ten points in a Southern evangelical State, and is also behind Rubio, where can he win? He also has a major problem in that the 'evangelical' States where he may win are largely the States that share out delegates, whereas the winner-takes-all States are those which will be difficult for him, the upshot being that his delegate count is likely to fall short of his percentage support. I think this is the beginning of the end for Cruz.

It wasn't a good night for Trump, despite what the headlines may say, even though he won SC. His share in the State declined significantly over recent days, though at least it didn't collapse. Worse news for him was Bush's poor showing. He could have done with Bush doing better and staying in, continuing to split the non-Trump votes and delegates. He has shown that he can attract votes in any area, though.

I think it's a shame Bush couldn't get traction. He probably had the most reasonable policies of all the Republicans (still pretty right wing by our standards, but at least not whacko like most of the rest), but the anti-establishment mood was unshakeable this time round. He never looked presidential though, or even self-confident.

Kasich is again targeting his limited resources, moving on to Vermont and Massachusetts a day before SC voted, but you gotta wonder how long he has left.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 22, 2016, 02:58:22 AM
There has been uncertainty about Sanders' credentials on racial issues. Obviously, he is very much on the progressive side on this, though it hasn't been as recurring a theme of his as some others. His support is mainly white, whereas the Clintons have always had strong black support, and he has been trying, a bit too late, to build his image as a campaigner for black issues. He referenced his work for minority rights, beginning as a student activist in the early sixties, but there was little evidence to support it.

This photo of him addressing a group of student activists who occupied the University President's offices for two weeks, in a successful attempt to end segregation of student accommodation, was queried, in that doubt was raised as to whether it was actually him. It has now been accepted that it is him.

(https://timedotcom.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/bernie-sanders-university-chicago.jpg?quality=75&strip=color&w=1000)


Now the Chicago Tribune has turned up more photos and other evidence demonstrating that he was very active in race issues as early as 1962 as leader of the University's Congress of Racial Equality. 


(http://www.trbimg.com/img-55de7358/turbine/ct-3rdparty-bernie-sanders-aj-2-jpg-20150826/750/750x422)

(http://www.trbimg.com/img-56c7bb9b/turbine/ct-willis-wagons-school-segregation-chicago-1963-photos-20160218/750/750x422)


http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-bernie-sanders-university-of-chicago-met-20150826-story.html

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-bernie-sanders-1963-chicago-arrest-20160219-story.html


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on February 22, 2016, 10:56:25 AM
When the BBC refuses to show the results you know your on to something GREAT

Can't Stump The Trump!

#TRUMP2016


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 22, 2016, 01:47:20 PM
Trump's campaign has been caught out including fake border crossings in its advertising.

It suggests that it shows people crossing from Mexico to the US.

It turns out that the footage actually shows Moroccans crossing to a Spanish enclave.

Not that it will make any difference. The electorate clearly doesn't care what he is like.

Trump's ad:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivj0Hgfl8G4


The Moroccan border crossing:

http://video.repubblica.it/dossier/emergenza-lampedusa-2010/melilla-l-assalto-di-centinaia-di-migranti-alle-frontiere-spagnole/164553/163043?ref=search&refresh_ce


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on February 24, 2016, 11:56:35 AM
Final results Trump 34,531 (45.91%) Rubio 17,940 (23.85%) Cruz 16,079 ((21.38%) Carson 3,619 (4.81%) Kasich 2,709 (3.6%) #Nevadacaucus


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 25, 2016, 04:15:45 AM
Impartial poll staff working on the Nevada count.

(http://static.ijreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/IMG_3526.jpg?_ga=1.68010642.2088312759.1456370172)
(http://static.ijreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/IMG_3522.jpg?_ga=1.168691234.2088312759.1456370172)
(http://static.ijreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Screen-Shot-2016-02-23-at-9.51.45-PM1.jpg)(http://static.ijreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Screen-Shot-2016-02-23-at-9.58.23-PM.jpg?_ga=1.112528775.2088312759.1456370172)



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 28, 2016, 04:06:23 AM
The GOP debates have gradually degenerated, as Cruz and Rubio have been forced to sink almost to Trump's level. He blusters and insults and talks about making America great again and a few other empty cliches, but avoids discussing specific policies. The others can scarcely believe that it is working, and now have no option other than taking him on on his terms.

In previous years, debates have got very heated and very personal at times and serious allegations have been thrown around. Here's a couple of moments from the past where it looked like someone was ready to lay out the other guy:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5kUITklALQ

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c37VcgHUFVk


Even though there has been genuine anger at times in previous years, they still appeared professional and, so far as I know, they didn't go to the level of name-calling. On Thursday, the Republicans held their final debate before Super Tuesday, and the great sophisticated debaters were reduced to rolling around on the floor taking wild swings at each other. Lindsey Graham made a speech yesterday, after the debate, and said "My party's gone batshit crazy.............How did I lose to these guys?" It's not hard to see what he means:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W600QZxm0ZU



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DungBeetle on February 28, 2016, 01:03:16 PM
Mint thanks for updates.  Is there any in depth coverage in UK over the next week or so?  I'm off work so interested in watching.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: hector62 on February 28, 2016, 09:00:41 PM
Do any of you who are interested in the USA election watch " Real time with Bill Maher ". He is heavily biased towards the Democrats but it is very entertaining.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 28, 2016, 10:44:05 PM
Mint thanks for updates.  Is there any in depth coverage in UK over the next week or so?  I'm off work so interested in watching.

You picked a good week to be off, possibly the most important week of all.

There's no shortage of information sources. The BBC site, for example, will bring you up to scratch if you are light on background http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/us2016.

To really feel what's happening, though, I think you have to look at US sources. A key word or two on Google will turn up as much news as you want. I tend to surf randomly depending on what catches my eye, though I'm sure there are better approaches.  If you want to watch live, all the networks are available, eg http://abcnews.go.com/Live. I don't watch much live as it can be slow-moving compared with hopping around.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 28, 2016, 11:33:42 PM
While we're looking at clips of old debates, here's everyone's favourite zinger - Lloyd Bentsen bitch-slapping Dan Quayle in the 1988 VP Debate. Quayle was almost the same age as JFK was when he ran for President in 1960 and had some similarity in appearance to the Kennedys. He had taken to comparing himself to JFK in speeches. Bentsen buried him.
 
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQ5CIkSlUFI

If you're aged more than 40/45, you've probably seen that one before. But did you know that Reagan reworked it and brought the house down at the 1992 Republican Convention? The Governor he is referring to is Bill Clinton, who was on his way to depriving Bush Senior of a second term. Gotta love Reagan, wherever you stand on his politics.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tiNVqYwVfWE


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on February 29, 2016, 02:19:31 AM
Vicente Fox, former President of Mexico, isn't sitting on the fence when it comes to the wall:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4OwJOVi0ec

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lm89Jjxj7QI


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on February 29, 2016, 11:39:31 AM
Mint thanks for updates.  Is there any in depth coverage in UK over the next week or so?  I'm off work so interested in watching.

Great choice of week to view. After TheDonald clean sweeps tomorrow and crushes cruz and rubio your going to see lots and lots of faces with the dawning realisations that Donald J Trump is going to be the President of the United States of America 2016. There's going to be a lot of weeping and mewling from the left and the right over it, which will be delicious to observe.

The Clinton corner will roll out all the smearing they can think of over the next few months, the last card they can play before realising that a contest between Trump and Hilary is actually no contest at all.

#TRUMP2016


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on February 29, 2016, 11:42:14 AM
This series of videos, pretty hilarious :p

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDkxJu8WiE4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDkxJu8WiE4)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: PokerBroker on February 29, 2016, 12:11:11 PM
Mint thanks for updates.  Is there any in depth coverage in UK over the next week or so?  I'm off work so interested in watching.

Great choice of week to view. After TheDonald clean sweeps tomorrow and crushes cruz and rubio your going to see lots and lots of faces with the dawning realisations that Donald J Trump is going to be the President of the United States of America 2016. There's going to be a lot of weeping and mewling from the left and the right over it, which will be delicious to observe.

The Clinton corner will roll out all the smearing they can think of over the next few months, the last card they can play before realising that a contest between Trump and Hilary is actually no contest at all.

#TRUMP2016

Not sure if actually serious? 


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on February 29, 2016, 12:23:37 PM
Not sure if actually serious? 

For what reason would I not be serious?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on February 29, 2016, 01:02:29 PM
Vicente Fox, former President of Mexico, isn't sitting on the fence when it comes to the wall

"We won't build a wall"...says the ex Mexican president who facilitated the massive drug trafficking by the cartels whilst he was in power.

Nice one

http://www.breitbart.com/texas/2016/02/28/mexican-ex-president-who-cursed-trumps-wall-ignored-cartels-while-in-office/ (http://www.breitbart.com/texas/2016/02/28/mexican-ex-president-who-cursed-trumps-wall-ignored-cartels-while-in-office/)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RickBFA on February 29, 2016, 03:57:44 PM
In a world where the potential for instability is significantly increased (whether it's Putin's Russia, North Korea or ISIS as three obvious examples) I wouldn't want a character like Trump anywhere near power.

He is at best a loose cannon.

Forgetting all other aspects of policy, the thought of him in power for this reason alone is genuinely worrying.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: redsimon on February 29, 2016, 04:00:38 PM

This series of videos, pretty hilarious :p

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDkxJu8WiE4

fyp


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on February 29, 2016, 05:24:17 PM
Cheers REDsimon, I've spotted what you did now :p

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bj3QFBX9P_c

The 'highlights' from the debate.

Marco Rubio is one hateful person. He's imo a little rat


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on March 01, 2016, 12:42:16 AM
john oliver on trump

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGc2nN9OguQ


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 01, 2016, 02:13:24 AM
It's the biggest day of the campaign - Super Tuesday. 

(http://ktiv.images.worldnow.com/images/9992702_G.jpg)

There are no winner-take-all States, but most of them have 10%, 15% or 20% thresholds, below which candidates don't receive any delegates, usually measured by district, but sometimes State-wide. Hitting 50% usually means a mega-bonus of delegates.  If you are really interested in the detail, here is a boring guide to the detail of how it works, State-by-State: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/super-tuesday-preview-republican-presidential-election-2016/

Trump is ahead in almost all of the Super Tuesday States. The other candidates will still pick up delegates, but he will get wins, and the momentum could help propel him to further wins in the winner-take-all States coming up. Since Thursday's debate, the campaign has continued at the lowest common denominator, with both Rubio and Cruz adopting new basic (indeed questionable) anti-Trump tactics. They scarcely seem to be attacking each other at all now. It is more important for them to restrict Trump's lead than to worry about who gets those votes. Rubio has made a succession of Trump-style speeches belittling Trump's appearance and personality (which he had said he would never do). Cruz has said that Trump's reluctance to release his tax returns may be because he has extensive dealings with the Mafia.

(http://images.scribblelive.com/2016/2/26/e3428aa7-127e-43fe-a774-a83d5d645cde_800.jpg)
Rubio and Cruz gaze lovingly into each other's eyes after working together to double-team Trump.

Cruz has to win Texas or he is cooked. He is ahead, though Trump is doing well and Rubio is also making in-roads. This is Bush country, and Rubio is collecting most of Jeb!'s supporters and some Bush donors have already switched to him. Texas has a large number of delegates, but they are shared, which isn't good for Cruz. He had hoped for 50%, but now he will settle for winning the State. He also had his eye on a bunch of other Southern States, but many evangelical believers are now indicating that they will vote for Trump.

Rubio and Kasich will also be expected to win their home States, but they are later in March. For now, Rubio badly needs a win. Anywhere would do, but there isn't an obvious one before Florida on 15 Mar. At least Florida is winner-take-all, so that will help. The latest poll shows that Trump has overtaken him by a distance even in Florida, which would be really wounding to lose. It could be the case that there is no State Rubio can win, though repeated strong second and third places could keep him in the race collecting delegates. He is very close to the 20% barrier in several States, so a key point to watch out for tomorrow is whether he is getting past it, as his delegate count will flounder if he doesn't.

Kasich is aiming at Michigan on 9 Mar and his home State of Ohio on 15 Mar, both of which are winner-take-all with a lot of delegates. Kasich says his plan is on course, but he was disappointed not to get Christie's endorsement and has admitted he will drop out if he doesn't win Ohio, though he won't have much choice.

Carson's team has already indicated that he will drop out after Super Tuesday.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 01, 2016, 08:23:04 AM

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/718ba8c1a39705dc3e997c612d58761eeb1d2055/0_0_2036_1172/master/2036.jpg?w=1225&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=e6c82bf8f11dc4887330dffc1e003a50)

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3c298fe1fddd23248b22d22971f325e9f3ddc607/0_27_1964_1178/master/1964.jpg?w=620&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=dad663129043676fb779a707dea7da88)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 01, 2016, 02:10:26 PM
It seems that Sanders declined an offer of endorsement by former Minnesota Governor Jesse 'The Body' Ventura, thereby losing an opportunity to lock up the key demograhic of this election, the wrestling vote.

(http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTJBqlJ_9zU8ZSptZfMbLCZFX-UFFoL_rYTvpb2ho5u7XYx6wd2)

http://kstp.com/politics/jesse-ventura-supports-bernie-sanders-donald-trump/4062341/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: redsimon on March 01, 2016, 03:52:42 PM
Some "insights" from Phil Hellmuth Jr :)

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13474668/5/the-champion-poker-player-rsquo-s-guide-to-defeating-donald-trump.html


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on March 01, 2016, 06:46:17 PM
"He's no ordinary con man. He's way above average — and the American political system is his easiest mark ever"

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-america-made-donald-trump-unstoppable-20160224


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on March 01, 2016, 10:54:10 PM

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-america-made-donald-trump-unstoppable-20160224

Nice article, thanks for posting.

"It's a few minutes after that when a woman in the crowd shouts that Ted Cruz is a pussy. She will later tell a journalist she supports Trump because his balls are the size of "watermelons," while his opponents' balls are more like "grapes" or "raisins."

(http://33.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lu64rif0K11qkxl62.gif)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 02, 2016, 12:10:58 AM
Talk of a contested Convention is increasing. It's possible that Trump could collect the most delegates, but not enough to win. If that happens, the delegates are no longer tied to the outcome from their State and can vote how they wish, so the party tears itself apart until there is a winner. Getting to that point would be bad for Trump and it would be hard to see him winning, even if he had the lead going in. The same could be said for Cruz, probably even more so. Apparently, Rubio's campaign manager briefed donors last week that that is where they now see their path to victory - http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/25/politics/rubio-republican-convention/index.html

The delegates wouldn't even have to settle on one of the current candidates. They have the option of redirecting their votes to anyone. Rick Perry mentioned the possibility of a brokered Convention last week and declined to rule himself out as a compromise candidate, which caused a few headlines. A candidate who has already been rejected by the voters in the early primaries would be in a horribly weak position against Clinton, though. The delegates would be better to pick someone who hadn't been running. Mitt Romney almost joined the race last year and has been stirring things up in the last couple of weeks. How the party hierarchy would love to get him or, even better, Paul Ryan on the ticket. It's still a very long shot - Rubio would be the most likely nominee if it got that far (or maybe Kasich if he was still in the race).


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 02, 2016, 01:11:06 AM
Cenk Uygur reckons that, now they have finally started to attack, the Republican establishment can still take Trump down.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=892K-La_Gvg


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 02, 2016, 02:00:58 AM
Shock exit polls show Vermont too close to call between Kasich and Trump.

Kasich gave a lot of time to Vermont, visiting three times, and picked up all the local endorsements, but this still wasn't expected.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: BigAdz on March 02, 2016, 08:56:43 AM
Loving the updates and insight Mint. Thank you.

A must read every day.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DungBeetle on March 02, 2016, 10:28:14 AM
Agree - thanks Mint.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on March 02, 2016, 10:31:08 AM
Trump's unfavourability rating (-58) is worse than Nixon's after Watergate.

he wins the GOP nomination and then what? gets crushed by hillary who wins almost all the black, hispanic, liberal vote so that the GOP appears completely marginalised?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on March 02, 2016, 11:21:03 AM
"Virginia GOP primary turnout in 2012: 265,570.
Estimate in 2016: 1,025,000.
(From Edison Media Research)"


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on March 02, 2016, 11:30:12 AM
Trump's unfavourability rating (-58) is worse than Nixon's after Watergate.

So just slightly more unfavourable than darling Hillary?


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating)

(http://e.huffpost.com/screenshooter/elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/embed/ss2/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating/20160302103803434.png)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 02, 2016, 12:20:17 PM
Hillary's cut & paste speech was depressing. Just the same speech every other robot has given for the last thirty years - long on clichés, zero on specifics. If you just read it, you couldn't tell whether it had been given by Romney, Bush, McCain or Bill.

Despite the headlines, it wasn't a bad night for Sanders. Four States is good enough to keep his head above water, so he has achieved his first objective of surviving Super Tuesday. If he gets through the rest of March, he has a shot. And he now has a lot of money to spend.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: George2Loose on March 02, 2016, 01:46:27 PM
If you get Sanders surely u get Trump as President?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Doobs on March 02, 2016, 01:55:50 PM
Trump's unfavourability rating (-58) is worse than Nixon's after Watergate.

So just slightly more unfavourable than darling Hillary?


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating)

(http://e.huffpost.com/screenshooter/elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/embed/ss2/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating/20160302103803434.png)

If we ignore the favourability ratings there is still hope for Jeremy Corbyn (-51 at the last count).


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on March 02, 2016, 03:18:54 PM
Massachusetts is a state where independent voters can cast a ballot in the primary of any party. Therefore you could easily expect all Trump haters to go out of their way to vote for another candidate.

It is interesting to note that Trump took Massachusetts with 49%. His nearest rival was Kasich at 18%

Hillary scraped it, with a 0.4% edge on Sanders. It's quite well known that a significant amount of Bernie voters have said they would point blank refuse to go with Hillary in the Presidential election if she were to win the nomination.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on March 02, 2016, 03:22:53 PM
It suprises me, the negativity towards Trump from poker players. If any presidential candidate is looking forward to giving Sheldon Addelson the middle finger once President, it's Donald J Trump. Removing Addelson from US Politics will be a huge net benefit to the poker community the world over.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MC on March 02, 2016, 03:28:57 PM
It suprises me, the negativity towards Trump from poker players. If any presidential candidate is looking forward to giving Sheldon Addelson the middle finger once President, it's Donald J Trump. Removing Addelson from US Politics will be a huge net benefit to the poker community the world over.

lol

Pros: Might be slightly better for online poker
Cons: Biggest buffoon of all time gets most powerful world role.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Karabiner on March 02, 2016, 03:31:41 PM
It suprises me, the negativity towards Trump from poker players. If any presidential candidate is looking forward to giving Sheldon Addelson the middle finger once President, it's Donald J Trump. Removing Addelson from US Politics will be a huge net benefit to the poker community the world over.

Having a fully-loaded loose blunderbuss in charge would be one hell of a price to pay, however if it meant that all those yankee PLO players would be back playing with us you may have a point.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Doobs on March 02, 2016, 03:34:09 PM
It suprises me, the negativity towards Trump from poker players. If any presidential candidate is looking forward to giving Sheldon Addelson the middle finger once President, it's Donald J Trump. Removing Addelson from US Politics will be a huge net benefit to the poker community the world over.

Why should it surprise you that people put other things above poker?  Seems very narrow minded to just look at what is best for poker, and ignore all the deeply unpleasant stuff he has said.   Even if you can ignore all that, then where is the evidence that he will give Adelson the middle finger?  And even if any evidence existed, Trump is so incinsistent that there is no certainty he will follow through anything he has promised.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RED-DOG on March 02, 2016, 03:35:31 PM
It makes me sad to think that such a large percentage of the population of a so called civilised country would support such an openly racist, bigoted candidate.

A man blessed with Trump's advantages in life could do so much good too. He's despicable.

IMO of course.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on March 02, 2016, 03:42:29 PM
MintTrav obviously the most knowledgeable on all things US, so guess this is for him :)

From the outside, and with very limited knowledge of the US, and it's politicians.

Obama has always seemed to be the most stable/balanced president in my short lifetime, but a fair few Americans that seem to make the most noise talk about him being the worst president ever.

Would I be mistaken in thinking that probably means that he has actually been very good, and it's just the loons spouting?




Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: muckthenuts on March 02, 2016, 04:55:44 PM
The idea of voting for Trump because it might be good for online poker is just beyond belief.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on March 02, 2016, 05:33:28 PM
MintTrav obviously the most knowledgeable on all things US, so guess this is for him :)

From the outside, and with very limited knowledge of the US, and it's politicians.

Obama has always seemed to be the most stable/balanced president in my short lifetime, but a fair few Americans that seem to make the most noise talk about him being the worst president ever.

Would I be mistaken in thinking that probably means that he has actually been very good, and it's just the loons spouting?


How would you describe a President who starts office with a National debt of $9 trillion, and is about to leave office with a national debt of $20 trillion?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: nirvana on March 02, 2016, 06:29:12 PM
MintTrav obviously the most knowledgeable on all things US, so guess this is for him :)

From the outside, and with very limited knowledge of the US, and it's politicians.

Obama has always seemed to be the most stable/balanced president in my short lifetime, but a fair few Americans that seem to make the most noise talk about him being the worst president ever.

Would I be mistaken in thinking that probably means that he has actually been very good, and it's just the loons spouting?


How would you describe a President who starts office with a National debt of $9 trillion, and is about to leave office with a national debt of $20 trillion?

I'd describe him as man who was President during a period when the national debt increased. If I was balanced I might also list some accomplishments


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: neeko on March 02, 2016, 06:50:53 PM
MintTrav obviously the most knowledgeable on all things US, so guess this is for him :)

From the outside, and with very limited knowledge of the US, and it's politicians.

Obama has always seemed to be the most stable/balanced president in my short lifetime, but a fair few Americans that seem to make the most noise talk about him being the worst president ever.

Would I be mistaken in thinking that probably means that he has actually been very good, and it's just the loons spouting?


How would you describe a President who starts office with a National debt of $9 trillion, and is about to leave office with a national debt of $20 trillion?

I would say that it was the obstructionist congress that stopped him doing anything.

He was trying to stop a second Great Depression - he should have spent a lot more.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Karabiner on March 02, 2016, 07:00:34 PM
What would you say is the actual colour of The Donald's barnet?

Lemon curd, lemon sorbet, or just yellow?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 02, 2016, 10:43:59 PM
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruuq9mAGrtE   No sound on this - do not adjust your set.


The saddest part of last night was watching Chris Christie standing behind during Trump's speech. It's hard to feel sorry for someone like Christie, but you could tell he was suffering. He has sold his soul - and it's not even clear whether he will get anything out of it in the end. So why are these two unloveables hitching their wagons together?

Firstly, Trump gets status. Christie is a Governor, and not of some maverick State like Minnesota, but a proper North-East wealthy State. No-one is more establishment than Chris Christie. He has the inside track with all the Republican heavyweights (or he did until he did this). Secondly, Trump gets to show off his bitch. 'This guy is a big-shot, Number One in the whole State of New Jersey. Now look where he is, my bag-man. He is king of nine million people in Jersey but he is my pussy. See, he does what I say. Stand Christie. Now beg.'

Christie gets a shot at being No 2 to the Prez. There is nothing left for him in New Jersey. Everyone there hates him. Where can he go from here? There is a possibility that Trump will put him on the ticket and he could even become Vice-President. For that, he has to swallow what is left of his self-respect and endure Trump's speech and the world's ridicule while clearly dying inside. And this was just the first time - he is going to have to relive this many times before the Summer. And after all that, Trump might not even choose him, but he'll just have to close that bridge when he comes to it.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Woodsey on March 03, 2016, 01:13:55 AM
Few of these sorts of things popping up,on FB, being a massive James bond fan this one made me smile  :)

(http://i444.photobucket.com/albums/qq167/Andr4w/image_zpse3kiejpe.jpeg) (http://s444.photobucket.com/user/Andr4w/media/image_zpse3kiejpe.jpeg.html)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 03, 2016, 02:16:51 AM
The President's Religion

Almost every President the US has ever had has been a Protestant and there has never been a President who practised any religion outside Christianity. Of the 44 Presidents, 39 have been a Protestant of some kind, one was a Catholic and four (Jefferson, Lincoln, Andrew Johnson and Ulysses Grant) are not believed to have had any religion (Grant had a deathbed conversion). There could be another non-Protestant this year.

Of the seven candidates remaining, five are Protestant. Four of them are devout practising - Cruz is a Baptist (though his father was originally Catholic), Clinton is Methodist, Kasich is Anglican and Carson is Seventh Day Adventist. Kasich was raised a Catholic, drifted away to become non-practising, but rediscovered religion (though a different one) at the age of 35 when both his parents were killed by a drunk driver. Trump is Presbyterian, but his attendance is sporadic and there is some doubt about whether he really believes.

Rubio has been a devout Catholic all his life except for three years between the ages of 8-11 when he practised as a Mormon. He and his wife go to church twice at weekends, attending both Catholic and Baptist Churches, but they identify as Catholic.

Sanders is Jewish, though he is not practising and says he is Jewish by culture, but not by religion. He spent some time in Israel when he was younger, including a few months in a kibbutz, but he is openly non-religious. His wife was raised as a Catholic and has said she still practises "in my own way".

So we could see the first Jewish (and first non-Christian), the second Catholic or the fifth non-believing President (depending on how you look at it). If Romney somehow got in the back door, he would be the first Mormon.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Tal on March 03, 2016, 08:10:07 AM
It's fascinating how big an issue religion is in what is arguably the most secular nation on Earth. How many other countries forbid religious laws in their constitution?

Mint, is the nation changing attitudes towards the importance of religion in politics?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: neeko on March 03, 2016, 09:00:56 AM
There was a great article this week somewhere (that I now can't find) which explained why cruz did worse than even he expected.

He is an evangelical Christian and was supposed to do well in all the southern states that voted on Tuesday and all the polls come back with people saying they are religious. But he did badly and trump won these states because it turns out that a lot of Americans say they are religious but don't actually go to church. Where they actually go to church cruz did well ie Oklahoma but others not so much.

The Christian Right provide a fire and enthusiasm inside the Republican Party but there are not really enough of them to get anyone voted in nationally.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 03, 2016, 09:17:09 AM
Two of the leading candidates, Trump and Sanders, are effectively non-practising. I'm not sure whether attitudes are changing or whether it's just that this is a rogue year and things will return to normal next time.

Obama is also vague, being Christian, but not specific about what church he follows. It's incredible thst he has been able to swing that one. Both his father and step-father were nominally Muslim (though they don't seem to have done much about it), which is also a first.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 03, 2016, 09:21:18 AM
Another big night coming up on Thursday.

The Republican debate features the long-awaited rematch between Trump and Megan Kelly.

And Romney is making a major speech on the election. He is expected to attack Trump again, but not endorse any of the others. Watch this space.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AdamM on March 03, 2016, 02:16:00 PM
It's fascinating how big an issue religion is in what is arguably the most secular nation on Earth. How many other countries forbid religious laws in their constitution?

Mint, is the nation changing attitudes towards the importance of religion in politics?

Most secular nation? Really?
I know on paper there's a separation of church and state, but in practice to next to impossible to get elected to any public office without being overtly religious, school children pledge allegiance every day "so help them God," not only is "in God we trust" on the money, it's even turning up on the back of police cars, and almost half of all Americans believe the Earth is 10,000 years old.

Doesn't seem very secular to me


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 03, 2016, 04:10:47 PM
It's fascinating how big an issue religion is in what is arguably the most secular nation on Earth. How many other countries forbid religious laws in their constitution?

Mint, is the nation changing attitudes towards the importance of religion in politics?

I'm sure your question was just to emphasise the point rather than being a request for information, but it intrigued me, so I had a check. I knew that the separation exists in the Irish Constitution, ie a country with a higher rate of religious observance than here, and virtually 100% at the time the Constitution was written in the 1930s.

I was surprised that the answer is bloody loads. We are almost in the minority in not having such a separation, though most of the countries listed have much higher levels of participation in religion than the UK.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secular_state


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on March 03, 2016, 05:42:41 PM
mitt romney's speech tonight has been leaked and is a corker, like trump or not it rips into him

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cco20IWWAAAVnJ7.jpg)

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/how-mitt-romney-decided-to-take-on-donald-trump?utm_term=.xpe66Rlz7


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on March 03, 2016, 07:40:41 PM
this was posted by a US Poker player, matt Glantz today

an interesting perspective

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CceWdg6W0AApdHW.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on March 03, 2016, 07:57:32 PM
It's nice to see you post that Tighty, this is essentially the very reason why Trump is so popular with the people. It is also the reason why all politicos are absolutely shitting themselves hence you see the smear campaigns left and right.

It's also the same reason I have feared for Trump's life for the last 6 month's. They got away with it with JFK, I'm not sure the American public will be so ready to swallow it this time.

Also the people who fear Trump will take us to world war 3, 4 and 5. Can he really be any worse for world piece than the Bush family?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on March 03, 2016, 08:00:52 PM
It's nice to see you post that Tighty

i try to pop stuff up from all viewpoints, that's all

finding pro-trump stuff is tougher than the knocking copy, which is understandable (and probably deserved given some of hte stuff he comes out with)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RickBFA on March 03, 2016, 11:20:04 PM
It's nice to see you post that Tighty, this is essentially the very reason why Trump is so popular with the people. It is also the reason why all politicos are absolutely shitting themselves hence you see the smear campaigns left and right.

It's also the same reason I have feared for Trump's life for the last 6 month's. They got away with it with JFK, I'm not sure the American public will be so ready to swallow it this time.

Also the people who fear Trump will take us to world war 3, 4 and 5. Can he really be any worse for world piece than the Bush family?

Comparing Trump to the Bush family (I fully understand your point of view of them) is irrelevant isn't it?

We are talking about the next President not looking back.

Trump is a bully and a volatile character. Hardly the type you want as leader of the free world.

Common sense tells me he is a significantly greater risk to stability and diplomatic relations than say Clinton.










Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: BigAdz on March 03, 2016, 11:32:53 PM
It's nice to see you post that Tighty, this is essentially the very reason why Trump is so popular with the people. It is also the reason why all politicos are absolutely shitting themselves hence you see the smear campaigns left and right.

It's also the same reason I have feared for Trump's life for the last 6 month's. They got away with it with JFK, I'm not sure the American public will be so ready to swallow it this time.

Also the people who fear Trump will take us to world war 3, 4 and 5. Can he really be any worse for world piece than the Bush family?


Pretty sure if there is a WW3, there won't be a 4 or a 5. Certainly not under his Administration.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on March 04, 2016, 09:30:23 AM
this would be fun

CNN: Source close to Romneys says goal is to lock Trump out in brokered convention. CNN says Romney or maybe Ryan could be candidate.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on March 04, 2016, 11:34:20 AM
this would be fun

CNN: Source close to Romneys says goal is to lock Trump out in brokered convention. CNN says Romney or maybe Ryan could be candidate.

Surely if that happens Trump just runs as an independent out of spite and skewers the Republican candidate?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on March 04, 2016, 11:38:08 AM
this would be fun

CNN: Source close to Romneys says goal is to lock Trump out in brokered convention. CNN says Romney or maybe Ryan could be candidate.

Surely if that happens Trump just runs as an independent out of spite and skewers the Republican candidate?

no idea, i just liked the house of cards aspect to it

calling Mr Murray, Mr Murray?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on March 04, 2016, 11:39:57 AM
this would be fun

CNN: Source close to Romneys says goal is to lock Trump out in brokered convention. CNN says Romney or maybe Ryan could be candidate.

Translation for thickos please


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: kukushkin88 on March 04, 2016, 11:56:19 AM
this would be fun

CNN: Source close to Romneys says goal is to lock Trump out in brokered convention. CNN says Romney or maybe Ryan could be candidate.

Translation for thickos please

If you don't win 1237 delegates, then the Republican candidate is decided at the convention. This is a brokered deal between all of GOP top brass/delegates. Trump would have no chance. I do think lots of them would rather lose than have Trump as their candidate. It would be good if Trump and Bernie ran as independents, it would be kind of like actual democracy.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on March 04, 2016, 12:13:59 PM
this would be fun

CNN: Source close to Romneys says goal is to lock Trump out in brokered convention. CNN says Romney or maybe Ryan could be candidate.

Translation for thickos please

If you don't win 1237 delegates, then the Republican candidate is decided at the convention. This is a brokered deal between all of GOP top brass/delegates. Trump would have no chance. I do think lots of them would rather lose than have Trump as their candidate. It would be good if Trump and Bernie ran as independents, it would be kind of like actual democracy.

That would actually be pretty awesome. It's a Rock Paper Scissors kind of deal. I don't think Bernie could beat Trump if it were head-to-head, I don't think Trump could beat Hillary, but I do think Bernie could beat Trump and Hillary (and Cruz/Rubio) if it were split four ways.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on March 04, 2016, 01:37:50 PM
June would be too late for Trump to register as an Independent.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: kukushkin88 on March 04, 2016, 01:43:16 PM
June would be too late for Trump to register as an Independent.

When is the cut off?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on March 05, 2016, 10:26:59 AM
Tour de force of a piece from Matt Taibbi on the rise of Donald Trump and the media's complicity in it

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-america-made-donald-trump-unstoppable-20160224?page=13


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 05, 2016, 01:27:51 PM
June would be too late for Trump to register as an Independent.

When is the cut off?

It varies by State. Most are in August, but a few, including Texas and Florida, will have passed before the Convention (18-21 July). However, it's not just a case of filing - you need to collect signatures in the State in support of your candidacy, ranging from 275 in Tennessee to 178,039 in California. To get onto every State's ballot, you need to collect over 900,000 signatures, so starting on 22 July wouldn't give much time. Texas and South Dakota have 'sore loser' laws preventing candidates who failed to get their party nomination from standing as an Independent.

https://ballotpedia.org/Filing_deadlines_and_signature_requirements_for_independent_presidential_candidates,_2016

There is another way, which is to be a write-in candidate, ie the voter has to write your name himself on the ballot paper. It's less reliable, but write-ins candidates have won several State Primaries in the past. Seven States (Arkansas, Hawaii, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, Oklahoma & South Dakota) don't allow write-ins but, of those, only Nevada and Oklahoma have filing dates before the Convention.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 05, 2016, 09:45:50 PM
Four States voting today - Louisiana, Kentucky, Kansas and Maine, all with delegates split proportionately. Trump has been ahead in the polls, but Cruz has been closing recently and looks like he can do well in most of them.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/04/donald-trump-and-ted-cruz-square-off-in-saturday-caucuses/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 05, 2016, 11:52:17 PM
It's five States today - missed Nebraska.

It's a big night for Cruz - two States banked already.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: kukushkin88 on March 06, 2016, 11:56:46 AM
June would be too late for Trump to register as an Independent.

When is the cut off?

It varies by State. Most are in August, but a few, including Texas and Florida, will have passed before the Convention (18-21 July). However, it's not just a case of filing - you need to collect signatures in the State in support of your candidacy, ranging from 275 in Tennessee to 178,039 in California. To get onto every State's ballot, you need to collect over 900,000 signatures, so starting on 22 July wouldn't give much time. Texas and South Dakota have 'sore loser' laws preventing candidates who failed to get their party nomination from standing as an Independent.

https://ballotpedia.org/Filing_deadlines_and_signature_requirements_for_independent_presidential_candidates,_2016

There is another way, which is to be a write-in candidate, ie the voter has to write your name himself on the ballot paper. It's less reliable, but write-ins candidates have won several State Primaries in the past. Seven States (Arkansas, Hawaii, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, Oklahoma & South Dakota) don't allow write-ins but, of those, only Nevada and Oklahoma have filing dates before the Convention.

Thanks for this.

Trump might be an exceptional case I guess, in terms of the speed with which he'll be able to gather the requisite number of signatories?

Since Reagan, I have no sympathy for the GOP whatsoever but what a horrible spot they're in…. Trump, Cruz or a brokered deal for someone who gained almost no delegates.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 06, 2016, 01:47:49 PM
Cruz has rejected Romney's idea of the candidates working together against Trump. He would be unlikely to benefit from a brokered deal, so there wouldn't seem much point in him playing ball. He set up ten offices in Florida this week. Ten! He has no chance of winning Florida, and it is a winner-take-all State, so he won't get more delegates, but he is diverting resources from States where he could win. The only reason to do so is to try to take votes from Rubio, as there is overlap in their support, in the hope that Rubio drops out if he doesn't win Florida.

A brokered Convention probably wouldn't favour Rubio either. Presenting the public with a stitch-up candidate who has been beaten time after time seems so undemocratic. If only there was an alternative candidate the party could turn to in its hour of need.
(http://a.abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/RT_mitt_romney_jef_160303_16x9t_240.jpg)

Mitt's plan is designed to help Mitt.

Rubio might not even come into consideration. Current GOP rules require a candidate to have got the most delegates in eight States to be included in the second count. It looks like only Trump and Cruz will meet this criterion. It could be that no-one except Trump does so, without him passing the 1237 barrier. Surely he would be entitled to claim the nomination then. It is a new rule, brought in to thwart maverick candidates from overhauling mainstream ones, but it is unexpectedly working the other way round, so it seems likely that they will reverse the rule before the Convention, bare-facedly favouring one candidate over another.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 06, 2016, 06:16:37 PM
When the General Election comes, the Democrats will dig up all these attacks the Republicans are making on each other and use them against whoever gets the nomination.

Here is an LBJ ad from 1964, where they did just that. One of those from his own party quoted as having attacked Goldwater sounds familiar.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZI9Ht2jwCM


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: rfgqqabc on March 06, 2016, 06:46:51 PM
Independent candidate 40/1. Miniscule chance of Bernie and none zero chance of trump. Are we close to this? Was independent a 1m/1 shor prior to this year? Supports the black swan theory.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 06, 2016, 10:33:54 PM
Just when people are ready to declare Rubio's run over, Puerto Rico comes along at just the right moment. If he receives more than 50% of the votes, he will snag all 23 delegates. Expect him to get over 70% and record the biggest winning margin of anyone so far. Super timing, not just for there but it will give him a boost heading into Florida, as well as in other States with high Latino populations.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on March 07, 2016, 09:31:17 AM
The broadcast evening news diet for 25 million Americans...

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cc3uiO9WwAAAhjS.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on March 07, 2016, 01:24:40 PM
A week ago Rubio was 3/1 and Kasich was 40/1 to get the nomination - now they're both 9/1.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: buffyslayer1 on March 08, 2016, 08:22:29 PM
this would be fun

CNN: Source close to Romneys says goal is to lock Trump out in brokered convention. CNN says Romney or maybe Ryan could be candidate.

Translation for thickos please

If you don't win 1237 delegates, then the Republican candidate is decided at the convention. This is a brokered deal between all of GOP top brass/delegates. Trump would have no chance. I do think lots of them would rather lose than have Trump as their candidate. It would be good if Trump and Bernie ran as independents, it would be kind of like actual democracy.

That would actually be pretty awesome. It's a Rock Paper Scissors kind of deal. I don't think Bernie could beat Trump if it were head-to-head, I don't think Trump could beat Hillary, but I do think Bernie could beat Trump and Hillary (and Cruz/Rubio) if it were split four ways.

In all polls Bernie smashes Trump in a head to head. In fact in the polls so far sanders is in quite a lead in head to head v any republican nomination

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html)



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 09, 2016, 01:32:33 AM
The Republicans are voting today in Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho and Hawaii.

Trump is leading the polls in all of them, but Cruz' position has been improving all over the country over the last week. On Saturday, Cruz won two States by large margins, recording 46% and 48%, and lost two by small amounts (receiving the same number of delegates as Trump in Louisiana).

Michigan is the big one today. Kasich has spent quite a bit of time there, but was still tailed off fourth in the polls less than a week ago. Since then, he has surged, largely at Rubio's expense, though Trump has lost a bit too. Trump still has a gap at the top and still looks likely to win, but Kasich seems to be reducing the gap and should collect a lot of delegates. Rubio is struggling to get back above 15%, and may actually get no delegates. 


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 09, 2016, 01:54:20 AM
A message from some real Americans:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5FVIvQL-9g


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Woodsey on March 09, 2016, 02:08:21 AM
He's pretty extreme for sure but I like the fact that he just says what he wants to say and sticks two fingers up to anyone that doesn't like it, fair play. Don't agree with a lot of what he says but good on him for sticking to his guns, would prefer that than some spineless jellyfish that caves in to PC wankers bitching because they have no backbone.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 09, 2016, 02:51:30 AM
He's pretty extreme for sure but I like the fact that he just says what he wants to say and sticks two fingers up to anyone that doesn't like it, fair play. Don't agree with a lot of what he says but good on him for sticking to his guns, would prefer that than some spineless jellyfish that caves in to PC wankers bitching because they have no backbone.

I'm sure a lot of his eye-catching positions are just for show and to suck up all the air-time. The Republicans had several much 'better' candidates but they couldn't get any exposure cos all the air-time was consumed by reaction to Trump's provocative statements. He is unpredictable and has substantial character flaws, but such policies that he has specified have been more rational than those of the other pair. Cruz gets his policies from the Bible and would have been examined and blown away by now like previous religious zealots if more air-time was spent on that. Rubio is an extremist on nearly everything except immigration. I think he is scored as the most right-wing Senator (can't be bothered to check). Any other year, he would have been derided as an extremist and dropped from the race by now. Trump is far to the left of both - you could probably place him as centre-left (by American standards, ie centre-right by UK standards). Whenever they get onto Healthcare, Trump says that he is not going to let people die on the streets, and the others react like he has just put forward the most Socialist policy imaginable. All three are terrible options and I would be unhappy if any of them became President, but I think I'd rather have Trump if we had to have one of them.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: cheesies on March 09, 2016, 08:52:21 AM
Betfair has Bernie for prez at 19:1 - does that seem a bit long? Given he just won michigan, which could influence other important midwestern states, and wins vs any repub in the polls? Obv still a big underdog but 19:1 seems a little much maybe


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on March 09, 2016, 10:14:19 AM
1986 letter from Tampa Bay Bandits owner John F. Bassett, threatening to punch Donald Trump in the mouth.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CdDVMLuWoAElgki.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RED-DOG on March 09, 2016, 10:30:16 PM
He's pretty extreme for sure but I like the fact that he just says what he wants to say and sticks two fingers up to anyone that doesn't like it, fair play. Don't agree with a lot of what he says but good on him for sticking to his guns, would prefer that than some spineless jellyfish that caves in to PC wankers bitching because they have no backbone.


So when he says what he thinks he's sticking to his guns, but when someone else says what they think they are bitching spineless jellyfish wankers?

How does that work then?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: david3103 on March 09, 2016, 11:44:30 PM
He's pretty extreme for sure but I like the fact that he just says what he wants to say and sticks two fingers up to anyone that doesn't like it, fair play. Don't agree with a lot of what he says but good on him for sticking to his guns, would prefer that than some spineless jellyfish that caves in to PC wankers bitching because they have no backbone.


So when he says what he thinks he's sticking to his guns, but when someone else says what they think they are bitching spineless jellyfish wankers?

How does that work then?


Well, obviously your misinterpretation of Woodsey's post wouldn't work at all.

Mind you, Drumpf has changed his views more often than <insert your example here>.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RED-DOG on March 10, 2016, 12:04:53 AM
He's pretty extreme for sure but I like the fact that he just says what he wants to say and sticks two fingers up to anyone that doesn't like it, fair play. Don't agree with a lot of what he says but good on him for sticking to his guns, would prefer that than some spineless jellyfish that caves in to PC wankers bitching because they have no backbone.


So when he says what he thinks he's sticking to his guns, but when someone else says what they think they are bitching spineless jellyfish wankers?

How does that work then?


Well, obviously your misinterpretation of Woodsey's post wouldn't work at all.

Mind you, Drumpf has changed his views more often than <insert your example here>.


Well I have to admit I am prone to misinterpret, so if you can explain where I went wrong I would genuinely appreciate it.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on March 10, 2016, 01:35:15 AM
He's pretty extreme for sure but I like the fact that he just says what he wants to say and sticks two fingers up to anyone that doesn't like it, fair play. Don't agree with a lot of what he says but good on him for sticking to his guns, would prefer that than some spineless jellyfish that caves in to PC wankers bitching because they have no backbone.


So when he says what he thinks he's sticking to his guns, but when someone else says what they think they are bitching spineless jellyfish wankers?

How does that work then?


Well, obviously your misinterpretation of Woodsey's post wouldn't work at all.

Mind you, Drumpf has changed his views more often than <insert your example here>.


Well I have to admit I am prone to misinterpret, so if you can explain where I went wrong I would genuinely appreciate it.

Bitching wankers and spineless jellyfish are two separate groups, but you have merged them into one.

Bitching wankers split from bleeding-heart liberals some time ago and stand on their own now. Spineless jellyfish are considering a merger with dithering idiots.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RED-DOG on March 10, 2016, 01:55:28 AM
He's pretty extreme for sure but I like the fact that he just says what he wants to say and sticks two fingers up to anyone that doesn't like it, fair play. Don't agree with a lot of what he says but good on him for sticking to his guns, would prefer that than some spineless jellyfish that caves in to PC wankers bitching because they have no backbone.


So when he says what he thinks he's sticking to his guns, but when someone else says what they think they are bitching spineless jellyfish wankers?

How does that work then?


Well, obviously your misinterpretation of Woodsey's post wouldn't work at all.

Mind you, Drumpf has changed his views more often than <insert your example here>.


Well I have to admit I am prone to misinterpret, so if you can explain where I went wrong I would genuinely appreciate it.

Bitching wankers and spineless jellyfish are two separate groups, but you have merged them into one.

Bitching wankers split from bleeding-heart liberals some time ago and stand on their own now. Spineless jellyfish are considering a merger with dithering idiots.

Ahh, thank you. So would I be correct in saying that according to Woodsey, you are either sticking to your guns or you are a PC wanker?

If I am correct then it begs the question why can't a PC wanker also be said to be "Sticking to his guns, and why can't he be admired for doing so?

Are there no occasions when the politically correct thing is also simply the correct thing?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: nirvana on March 10, 2016, 07:52:19 AM
No, I don't think you are correct - I think Woodsey would somewhat respect a PC wanker who was always, thoughtfully, make no mistake about it, a PC wanker. So a PC wanker can stick to his guns too



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: kukushkin88 on March 10, 2016, 08:13:20 AM
He's pretty extreme for sure but I like the fact that he just says what he wants to say and sticks two fingers up to anyone that doesn't like it, fair play. Don't agree with a lot of what he says but good on him for sticking to his guns, would prefer that than some spineless jellyfish that caves in to PC wankers bitching because they have no backbone.


So when he says what he thinks he's sticking to his guns, but when someone else says what they think they are bitching spineless jellyfish wankers?

How does that work then?


Well, obviously your misinterpretation of Woodsey's post wouldn't work at all.

Mind you, Drumpf has changed his views more often than <insert your example here>.


Well I have to admit I am prone to misinterpret, so if you can explain where I went wrong I would genuinely appreciate it.

Bitching wankers and spineless jellyfish are two separate groups, but you have merged them into one.

Bitching wankers split from bleeding-heart liberals some time ago and stand on their own now. Spineless jellyfish are considering a merger with dithering idiots.

Ahh, thank you. So would I be correct in saying that according to Woodsey, you are either sticking to your guns or you are a PC wanker?

If I am correct then it begs the question why can't a PC wanker also be said to be "Sticking to his guns, and why can't he be admired for doing so?

Are there no occasions when the politically correct thing is also simply the correct thing?

I wouldn't spend too much time on it, I doubt a great deal of thought, if any, went in to it. He'll probably try and tell us there's a link between being "PC" and having left wing politics next, we shouldn't spend too much time thinking about that either.

My observation would be that I've noticed a clear correlation between intelligence and the ability to change one's mind. New information comes to light, it, to some degree, changes your mind. I'm reasonably sure that's how it's supposed to work.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DungBeetle on March 10, 2016, 10:24:28 AM
He's pretty extreme for sure but I like the fact that he just says what he wants to say and sticks two fingers up to anyone that doesn't like it, fair play. Don't agree with a lot of what he says but good on him for sticking to his guns, would prefer that than some spineless jellyfish that caves in to PC wankers bitching because they have no backbone.


So when he says what he thinks he's sticking to his guns, but when someone else says what they think they are bitching spineless jellyfish wankers?

How does that work then?


Well, obviously your misinterpretation of Woodsey's post wouldn't work at all.

Mind you, Drumpf has changed his views more often than <insert your example here>.


Well I have to admit I am prone to misinterpret, so if you can explain where I went wrong I would genuinely appreciate it.

Bitching wankers and spineless jellyfish are two separate groups, but you have merged them into one.

Bitching wankers split from bleeding-heart liberals some time ago and stand on their own now. Spineless jellyfish are considering a merger with dithering idiots.

Ahh, thank you. So would I be correct in saying that according to Woodsey, you are either sticking to your guns or you are a PC wanker?

If I am correct then it begs the question why can't a PC wanker also be said to be "Sticking to his guns, and why can't he be admired for doing so?

Are there no occasions when the politically correct thing is also simply the correct thing?

I assume Woodsey's point is that the "stick by guns" man will just say what he thinks, whereas the "pc wanker" will say what he thinks and also demand that "guns" doesn't say what he thinks.  "Jellyfish" will appease "PC" by agreeing not to air his view so that "PC" no longer needs to take offense on behalf of others.

Unrelated, but I agree that the PC thing is often also the correct thing.  However you can have a "PC" view without being a "PC wanker" (see above).


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RED-DOG on March 10, 2016, 11:24:59 AM
He's pretty extreme for sure but I like the fact that he just says what he wants to say and sticks two fingers up to anyone that doesn't like it, fair play. Don't agree with a lot of what he says but good on him for sticking to his guns, would prefer that than some spineless jellyfish that caves in to PC wankers bitching because they have no backbone.


So when he says what he thinks he's sticking to his guns, but when someone else says what they think they are bitching spineless jellyfish wankers?

How does that work then?


Well, obviously your misinterpretation of Woodsey's post wouldn't work at all.

Mind you, Drumpf has changed his views more often than <insert your example here>.


Well I have to admit I am prone to misinterpret, so if you can explain where I went wrong I would genuinely appreciate it.

Bitching wankers and spineless jellyfish are two separate groups, but you have merged them into one.

Bitching wankers split from bleeding-heart liberals some time ago and stand on their own now. Spineless jellyfish are considering a merger with dithering idiots.

Ahh, thank you. So would I be correct in saying that according to Woodsey, you are either sticking to your guns or you are a PC wanker?

If I am correct then it begs the question why can't a PC wanker also be said to be "Sticking to his guns, and why can't he be admired for doing so?

Are there no occasions when the politically correct thing is also simply the correct thing?

I assume Woodsey's point is that the "stick by guns" man will just say what he thinks, whereas the "pc wanker" will say what he thinks and also demand that "guns" doesn't say what he thinks.  "Jellyfish" will appease "PC" by agreeing not to air his view so that "PC" no longer needs to take offense on behalf of others.

Unrelated, but I agree that the PC thing is often also the correct thing.  However you can have a "PC" view without being a "PC wanker" (see above).


I think this nails it.

I don't mind being PC, but I do worry about adding to my already considerable wankerishness.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Ironside on March 10, 2016, 11:29:20 AM
98% of PC men are wankers 1% are liars  and the other 1% cant get it up without viagra

unless you know different


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: 4KSuited on March 10, 2016, 01:10:16 PM
Admittedly, I've only read p20, but I wasn't expecting a discourse on political focus-group groupings (?)

Then again, it's been far more entertaining & far less depressing than reading about expectations of what the world will be like with Drumpf or Hillary Clit in charge of the nuclear button.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 02, 2016, 11:32:22 PM
So, the Republican leadership has adopted Cruz as its standard-bearer. His supporters now include former candidates, Jeb! Bush, Carly Fiorina, Rick Perry, Lindsey Graham and Scott Walker, as well as Mitt Romney, Nikki Haley and several from the Republican National Committee. It's incredible. The all hate him, but now they are backing him. Why?

Firstly, and most importantly, they reckon that the Presidency is already lost, but Trump will lead them to a disastrous defeat, with big losses in the Senate, the House and all the other less publicised, but still very important, offices that are up for election. Trump has record unfavourable ratings in almost all categories. Cruz' ratings are also bad, but nowhere near Trump's, so he might lead them to a 'normal' defeat, where they could hold on to some power, especially the House of Representatives (the Senate is probably lost either way).

Secondly, although Cruz is detestable, he is a conservative and believes in most of the same values as them, whereas Trump is a liberal and doesn't. If the GOP won the White House by some fluke, they would find themselves in agreement with most of President Cruz' policies, but opposed to most of President Trump's.

They really are in a terrible position. Cruz was the one they thought they would be uniting against. He is their sixteenth favourite of the seventeen candidates who took part, with a huge gap to fifteenth. Unfortunately, the race-leader is the only one they like less. They don't know whether they should try to push Trump out at the Convention, possibly leading to him running as a third-party candidate, splitting their support and handing the Presidency to the Democrats, or not. It could be seen as undemocratic to deprive the person with the most delegates of the nomination. On the other hand, if you add the delegates won by Rubio, etc to Cruz, it would exceed Trump's total, so it could be argued that it is legitimate to do so. Under 2012 rules, only Trump and Cruz will be eligible for the nomination, but they will probably change the rules. But who would they replace him with? Cruz? Kasich, who lost everywhere except his home State? Romney, who failed badly the last time? Bring back Rubio or Walker? The only Republicans who would have a chance of beating Clinton would probably be Kasich, Paul Ryan or Nikki Haley. Add into the mess the curveball that Trump's supporters have shown violent tendencies at times, which the candidate has done little to discourage; quite the opposite, in fact.

The RNC added a page to its website this week with the convention rules, causing one commentator to ask "Was TotalF*ckingTrainWreck.com already taken?”


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Tal on April 03, 2016, 12:20:53 AM
What's the percentage smart play here? Kasich as a middle of the road, slightly boring Republican whose campaign will be I am not Hillary Clinton?

Trump will win the far right votes as an independent but would plenty of Democrats vote for a seemingly normal republican over the divisive Hillary?

There's a danger, isn't there, for both teams of a Thatcher or Blair Effect, where the legacy of a big personality is felt after they have gone and the voters get put off the party?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: david3103 on April 03, 2016, 09:02:45 AM
As I understand it there are too many states which have a 'sore loser' law which would prevent Drumpf standing as an independent if he loses out on the Republican nomination.


PS
Only in America could he be described as a liberal


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 03, 2016, 02:30:06 PM
As I understand it there are too many states which have a 'sore loser' law which would prevent Drumpf standing as an independent if he loses out on the Republican nomination.


PS
Only in America could he be described as a liberal


Many States have 'sore loser' laws, but most have been successfully challenged over the years with regard to their application to Presidential elections, so now they only apply in Texas and South Dakota, with some doubt about Ohio. Trump could have avoided the problem by not running in the Primaries of those States, but the law could still be challenged, as challenges have always been successful elsewhere.

A bigger problem is that filing dates will have passed in some States by the time of the GOP Convention (see reply 266 on p18). If I was Trump, I would start collecting signatures and filing where necessary in advance of the Convention as a threat to prevent them dumping me and as insurance in case they do.

Another idea being floated is for the Republican leadership to run an Independent candidate if Trump gets the nod. One of the likely consequences of a Trump candidacy is that a lot of their supporters wouldn't show up. People who vote for the headline candidate usually vote for the same party in all the other State votes held the same day, so many candidates in marginal State races would lose out. The theory is that running a conservative Independent or third-party candidate would give voters a reason to turn up and then vote down the line. It's unlikely to happen.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 03, 2016, 03:18:43 PM
What's the percentage smart play here? Kasich as a middle of the road, slightly boring Republican whose campaign will be I am not Hillary Clinton?

Trump will win the far right votes as an independent but would plenty of Democrats vote for a seemingly normal republican over the divisive Hillary?

There's a danger, isn't there, for both teams of a Thatcher or Blair Effect, where the legacy of a big personality is felt after they have gone and the voters get put off the party?


Trump and Cruz have support within certain groups in the Republican Party, but not many people like them outside the party (in the general population, Cruz has an unfavourable rating of 51% and Trump is 63% (73% with women). Kasich's unfavourability is just 32%.

Kasich has a decent shot against Hillary. He is the only one of the three remaining GOP candidates to beat her in head-to-head polling, which he has done nine times recently, 100% of all polls.

One research unit said recently that the Republicans' best candidate would be Condoleezza Rice. Although she has some baggage from the Bush years, I think she would be a super candidate. Being a black female could almost be an advantage at this stage. Not sure that the US is ready for a female President who brings her own First Lady, though, which was supposedly also the reason that McCain was eventually persuaded not to have her as his VP running mate.

I think the GOP's most imaginative option would be Nikki Haley. The youngest Governor in the country (though in that job since 2011), she was brought up as a Sikh (single name Nimrata Nikki Randhawa), but is now a Christian. She is still popular in her State, South Carolina, being re-elected with a large majority, and has been mentioned many times for VP. If they are stuck, they could do worse.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 04, 2016, 08:59:28 AM
This week could be the beginning of the end for Trump.  Well, last week actually, but the effects might first be seen this week. Trump has been known as a flip-flopper for years and has done it in the campaign. Usually, though there have been substantial periods between the flip and the flop. Last week, though, he reversed his stated position within hours on not one, but two, important issues, namely abortion and nuclear.

You have probably heard that he said that, if the law is changed and abortions become illegal, women who have them should be punished. He was attacked by both sides for this, realised it was a screw-up, and quickly reversed to say that the doctors should be punished, but not the women. 

To be fair, he was suckered into the original position by the interviewer. The problem is that he doesn't know how to avoid traps and doesn't have advisors who can teach him.

He also said in one interview that Japan and South Korea should develop nuclear weapons and then, in another interview, said that his greatest fear is the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
 
Further, he recanted his promise to support the Republican nominee.

On top of all that, he stood by his campaign manager, who assaulted a reporter, instead of sacking him, and he got into a ridiculous wife-off with Cruz,  which seems to have damaged him (Trump) mainly.

The Wisconsin Primary is tomorrow. The most recent poll has Cruz ahead 43-37-18, so a Cruz win is very likely. Cruz' superior ground campaign could leverage that lead to a bigger win than expected and, if he could maintain that strength through the upcoming States, he would have all the momentum heading into the Convention. Cruz has also been mounting a delegate war in many States to get his supporters selected, with a view to the second ballot. He has also been targeting delegates won by candidates who have dropped out, who are now free agents. It is feasible to imagine Trump staggering to the Convention with a beaten campaign that no-one wants to see continue, despite having the most delegates on the first  ballot.

New York is next though, where Trump is far ahead (52-21-20), so that timing might steady the ship for him. The strategy for Cruz (and Kasich) is to peel away as many delegates as they can in Trump-strong NY and Cali, and try to nab the (for them) more friendly winner-take-all States.
 
(http://media.boingboing.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/CO5fgVJUAAA7uco.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Woodsey on April 04, 2016, 09:05:32 AM
Thing is, what he is saying about abortion sort of makes sense. If you aren't going punish a law when it's broken what's the point even having the law?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on April 04, 2016, 12:30:44 PM
That there is no public appetite to punish women for having abortions seems like a great reason to scrap them altogether.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 04, 2016, 04:29:44 PM
Thing is, what he is saying about abortion sort of makes sense. If you aren't going punish a law when it's broken what's the point even having the law?

That is true, but he has dug his grave IMO by going there. More than any race or religion, it is political suicide to offend the sisterhood. More women vote than men and they are unforgiving if you start messing about with their bodies. It is best to state your position on this question and then stay as far away from it as possible. Now three-quarters of women polled say they dislike him. A lot of them might have liked what he had to say about economics, immigration or government, but now they ain't coming back.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Jon MW on April 04, 2016, 04:50:11 PM
Thing is, what he is saying about abortion sort of makes sense. If you aren't going punish a law when it's broken what's the point even having the law?

My impression is that the law makes it illegal, in some circumstances, to provide an abortion (and using some methods).

It's not a field I know much about (so I could be wrong) - but that would mean it would never be illegal for a woman to have an abortion - and that's why they shouldn't be punished for it.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on April 04, 2016, 05:14:40 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CfNSbNHWwAAB8nU.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Woodsey on April 04, 2016, 06:46:36 PM
That there is no public appetite to punish women for having abortions seems like a great reason to scrap them altogether.

This isn't particularly about abortion, it could apply to anything.

Either have a law making something illegal and have punishments (that may or may not be enforced depending on the situation) or simply don't have a law. A law without potential punishments is a waste of everybodies time.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: neeko on April 04, 2016, 07:02:33 PM
Suicide used to be illegal in the uk - anyone that failed could be prosecuted.

It was abandoned in 1961.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Woodsey on April 04, 2016, 07:25:43 PM
Suicide used to be illegal in the uk - anyone that failed could be prosecuted.

It was abandoned in 1961.

Exactly don't have the law then....


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on April 04, 2016, 08:21:50 PM
John/anyone else

been asked the following on tft

"In view of what has been written on the US politics thread is there any mileage in backing Paul Ryan at 50-1 for the next president. If he does get the nomination we should be able to green out without going all the way to the election, which he is unlikely to win it would seem."

any views?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 04, 2016, 10:07:26 PM
John/anyone else

been asked the following on tft

"In view of what has been written on the US politics thread is there any mileage in backing Paul Ryan at 50-1 for the next president. If he does get the nomination we should be able to green out without going all the way to the election, which he is unlikely to win it would seem."

any views?

50/1? It definitely should be less than that. The party's whole plan is to use Cruz to keep Trump out, but then to replace him with another candidate they like better. Ryan is their strong favourite:

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/04/02/concerns-paul-ryan-emerging-ted-cruz-created-contested-convention-nominee-dominate-wisconsin/

There are a couple of difficulties with the plan.

One is Cruz' masterful organisational ability. We first saw it in Iowa, but his groundwork has been incredible throughout. He is currently working hard on getting his delegates onto the rules committee for the Convention. The rules are set every four years for that year's Convention and this committee will have the power to decide who is eligible to stand. If Cruz and Trump get enough of their guys on they will try to enforce the Eight States rule, preventing Kasich or anyone else from even standing. You're going to hear a lot more about Rule 40 before we're much older; 40 (b) to be precise. It's shaping up to be an almighty dust-up, the likes of which we've never seen in our lifetime, and should be fantastic to follow. We have a lot to be grateful for to the cartoon characters who have run this time and put the wind up the political aristocracy. And that's before the Convention even starts, where we could have multiple rounds of voting with different rules each round. Anyway, the make-up of its membership is crucial and, as I said, Cruz is on the case.

The next difficulty is that Ryan keeps saying he isn't interested. More than that, he volunteers the view that if you want to be President, you should run for it, whereas he could just pretend he's not interested without the extra emphasis if he is just pretending:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/04/04/paul-ryan-president-2016/82609122/

Finally, who says he wouldn't win? The Republicans are in bad shape, partly due to the demographic of their support, but partly because the cream has somehow sunk to the bottom and the crap has risen to the top through this process. Clinton is a flawed candidate, but her current potential opponents are much worse. A strong popular candidate like Ryan could do much better than the current options. He is well-regarded by most and while he may not be well-known here, he is in the US. He has a high profile as Speaker of the House and, remember, he was Romney's running mate for VP last time.

Despite the caveats, if I was a betting type, I would jump on the 50/1.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: JohnCharver on April 04, 2016, 11:18:23 PM
John/anyone else

been asked the following on tft

"In view of what has been written on the US politics thread is there any mileage in backing Paul Ryan at 50-1 for the next president. If he does get the nomination we should be able to green out without going all the way to the election, which he is unlikely to win it would seem."

any views?

50/1? It definitely should be less than that. The party's whole plan is to use Cruz to keep Trump out, but then to replace him with another candidate they like better. Ryan is their strong favourite:

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/04/02/concerns-paul-ryan-emerging-ted-cruz-created-contested-convention-nominee-dominate-wisconsin/

There are a couple of difficulties with the plan.

One is Cruz' masterful organisational ability. We first saw it in Iowa, but his groundwork has been incredible throughout. He is currently working hard on getting his delegates onto the rules committee for the Convention. The rules are set every four years for that year's Convention and this committee will have the power to decide who is eligible to stand. If Cruz and Trump get enough of their guys on they will try to enforce the Eight States rule, preventing Kasich or anyone else from even standing. You're going to hear a lot more about Rule 40 before we're much older; 40 (b) to be precise. It's shaping up to be an almighty dust-up, the likes of which we've never seen in our lifetime, and should be fantastic to follow. We have a lot to be grateful for to the cartoon characters who have run this time and put the wind up the political aristocracy. And that's before the Convention even starts, where we could have multiple rounds of voting with different rules each round. Anyway, the make-up of its membership is crucial and, as I said, Cruz is on the case.

The next difficulty is that Ryan keeps saying he isn't interested. More than that, he volunteers the view that if you want to be President, you should run for it, whereas he could just pretend he's not interested without the extra emphasis if he is just pretending:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/04/04/paul-ryan-president-2016/82609122/

Finally, who says he wouldn't win? The Republicans are in bad shape, partly due to the demographic of their support, but partly because the cream has somehow sunk to the bottom and the crap has risen to the top through this process. Clinton is a flawed candidate, but her current potential opponents are much worse. A strong popular candidate like Ryan could do much better than the current options. He is well-regarded by most and while he may not be well-known here, he is in the US. He has a high profile as Speaker of the House and, remember, he was Romney's running mate for VP last time.

Despite the caveats, if I was a betting type, I would jump on the 50/1.

Followed your stuff here and its very interesting, cheers so dont take this the wrong way but wtf is the whole point of all that has gone before if someone who hasnt run or someone whos been beaten or even thrashed gets the nomination? Everybody is already looking on thinking the americans are lunatics for trump even being considered, but then to go and rob him is not only undemocratic, but it also endears him to people who hate him/ think hes a joke.

I was expecting this all to fall apart at the final hurdle, a bit like the national front in france a while back, when people will come out and make sure this buffoon doesnt get in, but to see him robbed of a nomination hes fairly contested is ridiculous?

Our system is stupid, their system is utterly pointless.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 05, 2016, 12:19:01 AM
Followed your stuff here and its very interesting, cheers so dont take this the wrong way but wtf is the whole point of all that has gone before if someone who hasnt run or someone whos been beaten or even thrashed gets the nomination? Everybody is already looking on thinking the americans are lunatics for trump even being considered, but then to go and rob him is not only undemocratic, but it also endears him to people who hate him/ think hes a joke.

I was expecting this all to fall apart at the final hurdle, a bit like the national front in france a while back, when people will come out and make sure this buffoon doesnt get in, but to see him robbed of a nomination hes fairly contested is ridiculous?

Our system is stupid, their system is utterly pointless.

Totally agree. The candidates have spent two years of their careers on the race, plus God knows how long planning and working their way to the starting point. But it's not just them. They are surrounded by all kinds of staff, plus they have untold numbers of volunteers (Cruz literally has thousands). There are all the media people, the analysts,  the suppliers, and on and on. Every event requires security, transport, food, communications and everything else you can think of. I couldn't begin to imagine how many people have spent their time on this, including me. We can work out the cost, at least to the candidates, as they publish it. To the end of Feb, donations to Republican candidates and SuperPacs totalled $599.4m. I have no idea what the cost is of TV companies and all the other organizations caught up in it. And for what? They are nowhere. They don't have a candidate. They are heading for an out-of-control Convention, with little idea of how it will turn out. Whoever gets the nomination, most of their own party will be opposed to them and probably hoping they lose, if not intending to actively work against them. All the time, effort and money has been pointless, as you say. The whole system is a shambles. I wish it was on every year.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on April 05, 2016, 12:50:36 AM
Have to say, Trav et al, that I've thoroughly enjoyed the coverage in this thread. Really top stuff, thanks a lot for posting :)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 05, 2016, 12:33:31 PM
Trump has had a lot of popular support. What he has been really short of is big-name political endorsements. There are various celebrities and second-line politicians, but the only 'big beasts' supporting him are Chris Christie, Ben Carson and Sarah Palin, none of whom are ideal partners. Carson and Christie have given interviews where it is clear that they are not really that keen on Trump, but just see him as the best option available, ie preferable to Cruz. Christie is finished anyhow, so it doesn't much matter what he says.

Carson's support hasn't been worth much, as he keeps undermining it with strange lukewarm statements:

“He has some major defects, there’s no question about it, just like the rest of us, but I think he is willing to listen to other people..........Are there better people? Probably. But one of the things we have to do is broaden our pool from which we select our leaders".

In another interview he said "Is there another scenario that I would have preferred? Yes, but that scenario isn't available." Interviewer: "With one of the other candidates you mean?" Carson: "Yeah."

So that leaves Palin, who is always good value. I love this woman - so glad she has taken a role this year. This morning, she hit Facebook with some stirring support that is guaranteed to bring out the voters for her guy, especially with the accompanying happy snap:
(http://www.redstate.com/uploads/2016/04/palin-fb-post-pig.png)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: JohnCharver on April 05, 2016, 06:18:18 PM
Have to say, Trav et al, that I've thoroughly enjoyed the coverage in this thread. Really top stuff, thanks a lot for posting :)

This, its like WWE for grownups, and its great having a sane person to tell us what the lunatics are doing.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: dakky on April 06, 2016, 12:38:45 AM
Has anyone been watching Inside Obama's Whitehouse.

Formidable stuff, formidable man imo. Imagine what he could have done with the support of congress.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 06, 2016, 08:03:13 AM
So Cruz has taken Wisconsin. A highly-educated, church-going State, where most Republicans describe themselves as conservatives, wasn't ever likely to support Trump. Cruz' lead increased in the last few days of the campaign, but he should thank Rubio for dropping out and averting the split in the conservative vote that we saw in earlier States. Wisconsin may ultimately be regarded as a turning-point by some if Cruz does well from here, but it is a State that he was expected to win. More important is his performance in the next few weeks. Trump is currently crushing in New York and Pennsylvania and there are four other North-East States coming up. We can expect plenty of Trump razzmatazz, though Cruz may find some opportunities to keep a lid on the damage though a difficult period for him.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Teacake on April 06, 2016, 11:37:12 AM
Sanders appears to have momentum but looks like he is too far back and has very little super delegate support, how does New York and California look in the Democrat contest? I know Sanders is from NY and Hilary served there for a number of years how does that dynamic play out?

Great updates btw.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Teacake on April 06, 2016, 11:44:57 AM
Has anyone been watching Inside Obama's Whitehouse.

Formidable stuff, formidable man imo. Imagine what he could have done with the support of congress.

Yeah it's been really interesting, I still have last nights to watch but I'm certainly more sympathetic towards Obama than I was before which I imagine the programme set out to do. The partisan stance from the Republicans throughout his tenure was something he just couldn't overcome with so many issues.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 06, 2016, 03:14:28 PM
Sanders appears to have momentum but looks like he is too far back and has very little super delegate support, how does New York and California look in the Democrat contest? I know Sanders is from NY and Hilary served there for a number of years how does that dynamic play out?

I agree with what you say.

The Democrat race is getting interesting. Sanders not only survived March, when Clinton hoped to kill him off, but his win in Wisconsin means he has won seven of the last eight Primaries, mostly by large majority. His national share in polling isn’t that far off Clinton's and he has all the momentum. He says he is going all the way to the Convention and it looks like it could be a close-run race when they get there.

Wrong!

Of course, they would have liked to finish this earlier, but Hillary's team still has control. She didn’t waste time on a lost cause in Wisconsin, spending the last few days in New York.

Sanders has three big problems:

One is the Democratic National Committee, which is loaded with Clintonites and has been doing everything to hold him back. We have mentioned previously how they scheduled TV debates for times when viewing would be low, so any mishaps by the frontrunner would have less impact and how they withdrew Sanders’ access to the shared voter database.

The second problem is super-delegates, which we have discussed before as well. There are 714 of them - 21 Governors, 46 Senators, 193 House Representatives, 20 Distinguished Party Leaders (ex-Presidents and so on) and 434 members of the DNC (including every State’s Chair and Vice-Chair). They can vote for whoever they like. The Primaries generate 4,051 delegates who have to vote at the Convention according to the outcome of their State vote, so the requirement to win is 2,383 votes. In an unusual year like this, a maverick candidate can be suppressed, despite the popular vote. The Republicans don’t have super-delegates, but I bet they wish they did, rather than having to go through contortions to keep Trump out. 505 super-delegates have declared their allegiance so far, 473 for Clinton, 32 for Sanders. Of the ones we are familiar with, Bill Clinton and Bernie Sanders cancel each other out and the rest (Carter, Gore, Obama, Biden) are still uncommitted and will probably just support the winner. Sanders’ team has been putting pressure on super-delegates (who can change their minds right up til they vote in July) to turn on the basis of Sanders’ popular support and State wins. Good luck with that. So far, zero have been turned.

Sanders’ third problem is of his own making, in that he got off the mark too slowly. He could have made a huge impression if he had notched up the first few States but, to be frank, he didn’t put 100% effort into it. Firstly, he seemed not to believe himself that he actually had a chance of winning and was mainly interested in getting a wider audience for his views. Secondly, against all his advisors, he refused to attack Clinton on her weaknesses (emails, fees for Wall St speeches, Mid-East) as he doesn’t believe in that sort of negative politics and, thirdly, again against advice, he felt obliged to honour his Senate duties and was still spending three days a week there, even though no-one would have criticised him for not doing so (and the other Senators in the race weren’t doing the same). Personal appearances in their State seems to work better than anything else with the voters and a more focussed effort was needed. He has sharpened his attacks on Clinton, particularly on the bank speech fees, but has been trying to catch up on lost ground.

The Democrats have got Wyoming before New York, but it scarcely matters. NY is the key now. Clinton is definite to win and is hoping to put it to bed there with a big result. Sanders is from Brooklyn, but she is more of a New Yorker now. A bit like Cruz, Sanders is hoping his momentum will help him to show up well. Then it’s on to  the other North-East States.

I haven’t looked at betting markets, but I would expect Clinton to be at her highest odds for the nomination now and to reduce after New York, or even before.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 06, 2016, 03:47:44 PM
Some other super-delegates people may know:

Clinton:
Walter Mondale, Howard Dean, Dick Gephardt, George Mitchell ( Good Friday Agreement), Tom Daschle, Harry Reid, Barbara Boxer, Andrew Cuomo.

Uncommitted:
Jerry Brown, Nancy Pelosi, Elizabeth Warren, Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Co-Chair of Hillary's 2008 campaign and current Chair of the DNC).


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 06, 2016, 04:52:00 PM
The Panama thing could put a spanner in Hillary's works, as it is clear that she supported the Panama Free Trade Deal, which Sanders opposed strongly. As The Independent says,  "For some Americans, Hillary Clinton is the embodiment of a global elite which benefits from tax avoidance schemes. Bernie Sanders, her opponent, is its antithesis."
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/the-panama-papers-could-hand-bernie-sanders-the-keys-to-the-white-house-a6969481.html

Some think this could be the issue to drive Sanders forward, as he can clearly be seen to be on the side of the angels, while Hillary is the wicked witch, so the same might be inferred by the population about all the other times when he has pointed out the evils of banks, government, big business, super-rich individuals and so on.

I expect that, in the end, the public probably won't care about it enough for it to make a significant difference to the election.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPmnfGRB68Q


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: PokerBroker on April 06, 2016, 05:03:29 PM
I just read no American's were implicated in these Panama Papers. 

I wonder were the leak initially came from. 


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Longines on April 06, 2016, 07:14:48 PM
As an American why would you use Panama when Delaware has even more lax regulation?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 09, 2016, 01:48:41 PM
Have you seen the statement Trump's campaign issued after losing Wisconsin?

"Donald J. Trump withstood the onslaught of the establishment yet again. Lyin' Ted Cruz had the Governor of Wisconsin, many conservative talk radio show hosts, and the entire party apparatus behind him. Not only was he propelled by the anti-Trump Super PAC's spending countless millions of dollars on false advertising against Mr. Trump, but he was coordinating with his own Super PAC's (which is illegal) who totally control him. Ted Cruz is worse than a puppet--- he is a Trojan horse, being used by the party bosses attempting to steal the nomination from Mr. Trump. We have total confidence that Mr. Trump will go on to win in New York, where he holds a substantial lead in all the polls, and beyond. Mr. Trump is the only candidate who can secure the delegates needed to win the Republican nomination and ultimately defeat Hillary Clinton, or whomever is the Democratic nominee, in order to Make America Great Again."


The statement contains some truths, but it is written in a childish tone, recognisable as pure Trump. Although it comes from the campaign rather than him, it reads pretty much the way he speaks. I am surmising that it was dictated and issued with little or no editing. In this, it seems similar to Palin's statement, above, which also reads very much as she speaks. People usually write more formally than they speak, even those not over-concerned about language rules, so I find it interesting that these two, with their high profiles, are prepared to issue such unedited statements.

Of course, they are both loose cannons who could come out with a bizarre statement at any time. Worse, they have another similarity in that they have both turned up unprepared on the issues at times and got themselves into situations where they had to try to think it through while speaking, instead of taking the more sensible route of thinking through the options before-hand when the pressure is off.
 
Trump spends his nights tweeting opinions and insults, with no controls or filtering possible by his campaign team. In my view, it is his immaturity, rather than his views, that makes him unfit for office.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 10, 2016, 12:16:09 PM
Bill Clinton woke up from his coma this week when Black Lives Matter protested his speech in Philadelphia. They objected to his 1994 crime bill which led to substantially reduced crime, but is also partly responsible for the increase in the black prison population. That the bill could have been better has been acknowledged by both Clintons, though she has gone further than him.

Every politician in the land is afraid of taking on BLM, but Bill is never going to stand by while anyone says that his wasn't the greatest Presidency ever. The Clintons are in an unusual situation, in that they are so close with the black leaders and voters that they believe they can challenge elements within them without losing support.

Bill is so good in this kind of situation:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xW5T4JHZJfU

There has been speculation that this will hurt Hillary's support and that Bill will be put back into the background. Remains to be seen if that is what happens.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 10, 2016, 03:11:45 PM
Paul Ryan isn't running for President.

He has told you several times already that he isn't interested.

So why do you keep asking him?

Now he has had to put out this video this week to prove that he isn't interested.

Hopefully, this will finally convince you.

Now please leave him alone.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECxH4uIswiA


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on April 10, 2016, 03:45:16 PM
Paul Ryan isn't running for President.

He has told you several times already that he isn't interested.

So why do you keep asking him?

Now he has had to put out this video this week to prove that he isn't interested.

Hopefully, this will finally convince you.

Now please leave him alone.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECxH4uIswiA

Well I'm convinced.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 12, 2016, 12:08:33 AM
The Onion will keep you up-to-date with what's really happening in the election.

I have picked out some recent headlines. The full stories are on the link below.


- Clinton Campaign Treasurer Crushed To Death After Stack Of Campaign Funds Topples Over

- Shimmering Immaculate Republican Candidate Appears Before GOP Officials

- Kasich Privately Worried He’ll Never Have Charisma Necessary To Incite Supporters To Violent Frenzy

- Clinton Campaign Airlifts 200 Crates Of Volunteers To Wisconsin Headquarters

- Mysterious Necrotic Skin Disease Continues To Eat Away At Baby’s Face Weeks After Being Kissed By Ted Cruz

- Hillary Clinton Pleasantly Surprised After Finding Old $20,000 Donation Check In Coat Pocket

- Exuberant Trump Rally Crowd Bats Syrian Refugee Child Around Arena Before Candidate Comes On Stage

- Confounded Pollsters Admit There No Way Of Predicting Mercurial Behaviors Of Beguiling Female Vote
 
- Poll: Ted Cruz Currently Leads Among Voters Disputing Boundaries Of Neighbor’s Yard

http://www.theonion.com/tag/election-2016


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 12, 2016, 08:35:22 AM
My favourite Onion article on the election:

ISIS Struggling To Narrow Down GOP Debate Sound Bites For New Recruitment Video

RUKBAN, SYRIA—Growing increasingly tired and frustrated as they pored through tens of hours of footage packed with usable material, members of the militant group ISIS informed reporters Friday that they’ve been struggling to narrow down which GOP debate sound bites to use in their new recruitment video. “We’ve spent days cutting down our video to feature only the most inflammatory anti-Muslim statements that will attract new soldiers of jihad, but it’s still over 40 minutes—no one’s gonna sit through something that long,” said ISIS spokesman Abu Mohammad al-Adnani, adding that his team had already pulled several long nighrs focused solely on finding the most egregious clips of Donald Trump dehumanizing Muslims before even beginning to catalogue statements from the rest of the GOP candidates. “After staring at the monitor for so long, you lose the ability to tell whether a clip of Ted Cruz effectively saying the U.S. is at war with Islam has the same level of impact as a clip of Donald Trump talking about entering every Muslim into a government database. It’s a real shame we’re going to leave so much great recruitment material on the cutting room floor, but we’re confident we’ll be able to use the extra footage to roll out a brand-new propaganda video every week for the foreseeable future.” Sources confirmed that ISIS members were later seen sighing, shaking their heads, and dejectedly muttering under their breaths upon learning that another GOP debate had just been held the previous night.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on April 12, 2016, 01:40:31 PM
Com :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 17, 2016, 11:06:07 AM
Thursday's Democrat debate.

The gloves are off now and there are plenty of direct attacks on each other's record, but they are given and responded to in a civilised manner, so different to the childish approach on the other side. What a contrast this is to the embarrassment that the Republican race has been.

Not suggesting that you watch the whole thing unless you're a politics junkie, but if you dip in anywhere through, you will see a grown-up and informed debate between two people who are totally on top of every issue.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmhCxepugg4


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on April 17, 2016, 06:53:13 PM
Been watching some of Bernie's interviews/appearances, and Hilary's, too.

The more I see, the more I want Sanders to win it all.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: muckthenuts on April 17, 2016, 07:10:26 PM
Been watching some of Bernie's interviews/appearances, and Hilary's, too.

The more I see, the more I want Sanders to win it all.

+1. So many reasons to want Bernie over Hilary. Sadly seems pretty unlikely.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 17, 2016, 11:12:53 PM
Sanders has just won the TIME 100 Readers Poll, Time Magazine's annual list of who it considers to be the most influential people in the world. The magazine will announce its official list on 21 April. It's a bit like the Republican primaries - the public is asked to vote and then its opinion is ignored. Sanders also won the public vote in December for Time's 2015 Person of the Year, but they gave that to Merkel.

Notable absentees from the top ten this time included Vladimir Putin, Hillary Clinton, Angela Merkel, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, Beyoncé and Serena Williams, though they all made the top thirty. Former high-flyer Madonna doesn't seem to have even made the top 100.

TIME 100 2016 Readers Poll Top Ten:

1   Bernie Sanders
2   Big Bang
3   Aung San Suu Kyi
4   Barack Obama
5   Malala Yousafzai
6   Lady Gaga
7   Taylor Swift
8   Michelle Obama
9   Pope Francis
10 Leonardo DiCaprio



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Doobs on April 18, 2016, 01:04:38 AM
Sanders has just won the TIME 100 Readers Poll, Time Magazine's annual list of who it considers to be the most influential people in the world. The magazine will announce its official list on 21 April. It's a bit like the Republican primaries - the public is asked to vote and then its opinion is ignored. Sanders also won the public vote in December for Time's 2015 Person of the Year, but they gave that to Merkel.

Notable absentees from the top ten this time included Vladimir Putin, Hillary Clinton, Angela Merkel, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, Beyoncé and Serena Williams, though they all made the top thirty. Former high-flyer Madonna doesn't seem to have even made the top 100.

TIME 100 2016 Readers Poll Top Ten:

1   Bernie Sanders
2   Big Bang
3   Aung San Suu Kyi
4   Barack Obama
5   Malala Yousafzai
6   Lady Gaga
7   Taylor Swift
8   Michelle Obama
9   Pope Francis
10 Leonardo DiCaprio



3% of the vote though.

How do a South Korean boy band qualify as the most influesntial person of the year?  Baffling.  I had to google who Big Bang was.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Woodsey on April 18, 2016, 01:48:46 AM
Sanders has just won the TIME 100 Readers Poll, Time Magazine's annual list of who it considers to be the most influential people in the world. The magazine will announce its official list on 21 April. It's a bit like the Republican primaries - the public is asked to vote and then its opinion is ignored. Sanders also won the public vote in December for Time's 2015 Person of the Year, but they gave that to Merkel.

Notable absentees from the top ten this time included Vladimir Putin, Hillary Clinton, Angela Merkel, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, Beyoncé and Serena Williams, though they all made the top thirty. Former high-flyer Madonna doesn't seem to have even made the top 100.

TIME 100 2016 Readers Poll Top Ten:

1   Bernie Sanders
2   Big Bang
3   Aung San Suu Kyi
4   Barack Obama
5   Malala Yousafzai
6   Lady Gaga
7   Taylor Swift
8   Michelle Obama
9   Pope Francis
10 Leonardo DiCaprio



3% of the vote though.

How do a South Korean boy band qualify as the most influesntial person of the year?  Baffling.  I had to google who Big Bang was.

Struggling to see how the majority of those are particulary infuential, BS list tbh.....


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 18, 2016, 07:43:21 AM
Sanders has just won the TIME 100 Readers Poll, Time Magazine's annual list of who it considers to be the most influential people in the world. The magazine will announce its official list on 21 April. It's a bit like the Republican primaries - the public is asked to vote and then its opinion is ignored. Sanders also won the public vote in December for Time's 2015 Person of the Year, but they gave that to Merkel.

Notable absentees from the top ten this time included Vladimir Putin, Hillary Clinton, Angela Merkel, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, Beyoncé and Serena Williams, though they all made the top thirty. Former high-flyer Madonna doesn't seem to have even made the top 100.

TIME 100 2016 Readers Poll Top Ten:

1   Bernie Sanders
2   Big Bang
3   Aung San Suu Kyi
4   Barack Obama
5   Malala Yousafzai
6   Lady Gaga
7   Taylor Swift
8   Michelle Obama
9   Pope Francis
10 Leonardo DiCaprio



3% of the vote though.

How do a South Korean boy band qualify as the most influesntial person of the year?  Baffling.  I had to google who Big Bang was.

Struggling to see how the majority of those are particulary infuential, BS list tbh.....

It's the public, innit, voting for the person they heard something about most recently, while overlooking people with real influence who they are less aware of. There are loads of people who are more influential than Bernie. I guess this is why the official list is the one chosen by Time's editors.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 18, 2016, 09:07:01 AM
New York votes tomorrow in one of the most important dates of this year's Primaries.

Trump and Clinton have big leads, so it should be a question of how big they win, with below-expectation wins likely to be represented as loss of momentum by their opponents.

The main thing to watch out for on the Republican side is whether Trump gets more than 50% of the vote. There are 14 State-wide delegates. If the winner gets more than 50%, they get all the delegates. Otherwise, they are split proportionately between candidates who exceed 20%. Then there are another 81 delegates at District level, 3 in each of 27 Districts. The same rule applies - more than 50% of the vote in a District means you get all three delegates. If no-one exceeds 50%, the winner gets two and the runner-up gets one.

Trump is looking for as close to a clean sweep as he can get, whereas the others are trying to nick as many spare delegates as they can. There are quite a few Democrat-heavy Districts with few Republicans, which are difficult to predict, but they get equal weighting. Unlike some other States, every area of New York matters in the election.

The Democrat delegates are also awarded partly at State level and partly at District level, but are proportional to the vote in both cases, without any minimum requirement.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 18, 2016, 10:19:12 PM
Sarah Palin would like the job of Secretary of Energy in Donald Trump's cabinet. She claims that she thinks a lot about the Dept of Energy and that she is someone who knows energy - "oil and gas and minerals".

Which is great. Except that's not what the Dept of Energy does.

The Dept of Energy oversees nuclear weapons and deals with nuclear energy and energy policy.

The Dept of the Interior is responsible for land and natural resources, including oil, gas, etc.

So someone who is pitching for one of the highest roles in the nation hasn't a clue what it does. If it was anyone else, their credibility would be destroyed by this. She has no credibility left, so this probably has no effect.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uwGL5Gg8Rw


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 19, 2016, 01:38:30 AM
So you arrive home from your honeymoon. What's the first thing you do? If you're Ted Cruz, it's head out and buy a hundred cans of soup. WTF! 100 cans of soup! Perhaps he is actually mad after all.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sam_nEjFIew


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 19, 2016, 10:48:44 PM
There is some evidence in polling that Cruz has lost ground in NY, but to Kasich rather than Trump. In the final poll, Cruz is down two points from last week to 28%, Kasich is up three points to 19% and Trump is unchanged on 46%.

Kasich was expected to pick up a few delegates in areas where he has concentrated support. Finishing a close third in a lot of Districts doesn't pay in this game. He might do better now his percentage is up, but if it's spread evenly it won't help much, so some more concentrated support would be welcome. If he can get over 20%, he'll get a few State delegates.

Trump, on the other hand, will be hoping his support is not concentrated. In some Districts, he is certain to exceed 50% and pick up all three delegates, but others are less favourable and there are some he is unlikely to win. The NY rules favour the front-runner and, at higher percentage support, an even spread will maximise the advantage.

Cruz would be very happy to receive a third of the delegates, but will probably have to settle for less.

Having said all that, it is difficult to know how some areas with few Republicans will vote.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on April 19, 2016, 11:05:39 PM
So you arrive home from your honeymoon. What's the first thing you do? If you're Ted Cruz, it's head out and buy a hundred cans of soup. WTF! 100 cans of soup! Perhaps he is actually mad after all.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sam_nEjFIew

Cruz reminds me of Hellmuth.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 20, 2016, 12:02:34 AM
Cruz reminds me of Hellmuth.

He really is like him. Hadn't noticed that before.

The polls and the predictions for NY have been all over the place. More than one poll has Kasich in second place with over 20% and it has even been suggested that Cruz could get no delegates from NY. On the other hand, Redstate.com picks up on Trump polling below 50% Statewide and in many Districts and says "If accurate, this is a disaster for Trump". Forecasters are predicting Trump to end up with anywhere between 65 and 90 of the 95 delegates.

This is one of the most critical results so far, but we are still fairly in the dark until we see some exit polls. Voting ends at 9pm local time and it should become clear within a short time who has done well.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on April 20, 2016, 12:31:33 AM
Cruz reminds me of Hellmuth.

He really is like him. Hadn't noticed that before.

The polls and the predictions for NY have been all over the place. More than one poll has Kasich in second place with over 20% and it has even been suggested that Cruz could get no delegates from NY. On the other hand, Redstate.com picks up on Trump polling below 50% Statewide and in many Districts and says "If accurate, this is a disaster for Trump". Forecasters are predicting Trump to end up with anywhere between 65 and 90 of the 95 delegates.

This is one of the most critical results so far, but we are still fairly in the dark until we see some exit polls. Voting ends at 9pm local time and it should become clear within a short time who has done well.

I hadn't before this, but his mannerisms and facial expressions made him spring to mind, and he even sounds a little like him, too.

Is it streamed online anywhere, or are you just following via Twitter, etc.?




Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 20, 2016, 12:59:55 AM
Is it streamed online anywhere

Here's a couple of live feeds, but there are plenty of others.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=0C5JuWLHUfk

http://abcnews.go.com/Live/video/special-live-1-14476486

http://www.cbsnews.com/live/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on April 20, 2016, 03:25:43 AM
Forgot to check back, because I got CNN going in the office.

Trump winning on the bridle, lol.

Bernie needs a 12% swing after 25%, so hopefully he gets it.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: George2Loose on April 20, 2016, 04:14:06 AM
Again surely if Sanders wins nomination we get Trump as president?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 20, 2016, 08:51:24 AM
Wow - 60%.

It is worse for Cruz than feared, looking like he will only get about 15% to Kasich's 25%. Back in the first vote in Iowa, Cruz tried to appeal to the locals by disparaging Trump's "New York values" which, understandably, didn't go down well in New York and the phrase has been thrown back at him numerous times in the last fortnight, no doubt contributing to the disintegration of his support.

Karl Rove predicted that Trump could get 90 of the 95 delegates, and he could well be right, with the rest going to Kasich and none for Cruz. Kasich is winning in Manhattan, Trump's backyard, and should pick up a couple of others, but it's essentially a clean sweep.

Clinton's likely 60/40 win is being portrayed as a huge victory, but it is unlikely to translate into a big difference in delegates, maybe a difference of 30 in the 247 pledged delegates. This is because winning a six-delegate District 55/45 tends to result in an even 3/3 delegate split. You need to be hitting 60% to get the fourth one. Clinton is getting 60% in most of New York City, but is in the low 50%+ in a lot of the upstate Districts.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: neeko on April 20, 2016, 09:47:14 AM
Is Hillary far enough ahead to start looking at November rather than at Bernie?

Will she go more for the centre or is she a safe win in Nov by just watching the GOP explode?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on April 20, 2016, 02:00:58 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cge-9dkUMAACZai.jpg:large)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on April 20, 2016, 02:49:54 PM
.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: cheesies on April 23, 2016, 08:07:35 AM
Again surely if Sanders wins nomination we get Trump as president?

Every poll shows Sanders beating Trump if they are the nominees I believe. I think Trump is very very unlikely to be president whoever the democrat nominee is tbh.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on April 23, 2016, 04:27:22 PM
Again surely if Sanders wins nomination we get Trump as president?

Every poll shows Sanders beating Trump if they are the nominees I believe. I think Trump is very very unlikely to be president whoever the democrat nominee is tbh.

For the safety of everyone in the world lets hope he doesnt


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 25, 2016, 01:57:32 AM
Is Hillary far enough ahead to start looking at November rather than at Bernie?

For quite a time, the extended contest with Sanders seemed to be to Clinton's benefit. It kept her in the public eye, being seen to be performing well against a tough opponent. It also helped to sharpen the candidate and the team, keeping them match-fit ahead of the upcoming contest against the Republican challenge and improving performance by practicing and refining their responses to the tough questions.

Now, however, the contest has dragged on too long for her and the team is anxious to finish it and move on to concentrate on the 'real' contest. Sanders has been scoring too well against her recently, undermining her position and exposing opportunities for the Republicans to aim at.
 
The delegates she has already banked should be enough for her to secure the nomination in the next week. This article describes how her support has been deteriorating and she is now only two points ahead of Sanders nationally. From a high starting position, she is now a weak candidate with near record low support figures, but is extremely lucky (and the GOP is extremely unlucky) that she is likely to be up against Trump, who has the worst support figures of any general election candidate ever, or Cruz, possibly the only other candidate she would beat.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/hillary-clinton-won-new-york-but-her-image-is-under-water-20160420-goaxvw.html
 
With the nomination almost secured, though, as the campaigns head through Pennsylvania, she has been turning her attention to Trump, attacking his remarks on Muslims, immigrants and women. Of course, looking past Sanders helps to get the impression out there that her nomination is a done deal.


Will she go more for the centre or is she a safe win in Nov by just watching the GOP explode?

As you know, the Democratic Party members are considerably more liberal and the Republican Party members considerably more conservative than the general population so, to get through both stages, candidates tend to drift towards either extreme during the nomination process and back towards the centre for the General Election. The problem is you end up causing yourself difficulties by committing to positions that you don't believe in and that come back to haunt you for ever as you struggle to explain your irreconcilable positions.

Hillary has been dragged way outside her natural position during this process to counteract Sanders. She has to move back to the centre, which is where she will feel more comfortable anyway.

(http://img.wennermedia.com/620-width/george-bush-hilary-clinton-zoom-5da77074-aab4-4374-bb3d-bf18a65c2d3d.jpg)
Hillary catching up with an old friend at Nancy Reagan's funeral.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 25, 2016, 02:08:43 AM
For the first time in history, more voters on both sides are saying that they are voting against the other candidate rather than for their own:

(https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/NA-CJ898_VOTEAG_16U_20160421183334.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 25, 2016, 02:41:27 AM
Trump ad aimed at Clinton, which just demonstrates why he is unsuitable to be President:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gE4h6tOgVgc

And the Clinton camp's response:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_eTKSzoAUY


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on April 25, 2016, 02:46:23 AM
It's like it isn't even real.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Woodsey on April 25, 2016, 08:11:56 AM
Pretty funny to be fair  rotflmfao


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on April 25, 2016, 10:33:34 AM
Jesus, that's literally a campaign of 'vote for us, because we are not quite as stupid as the other candidate'

Suddenly Cameron and Corbyn don't seem so bad when you look at what the Yanks are having to choose between.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: dwh103 on April 25, 2016, 04:17:15 PM
Is there any chance of Sanders running as an independent assuming Clinton wins the nomination? Outside chance of a 4 way presidential vote?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on April 25, 2016, 05:01:18 PM
Is there any chance of Sanders running as an independent assuming Clinton wins the nomination? Outside chance of a 4 way presidential vote?

Zero - when he eventually loses he'll endorse Hillary and tell his supporters they should vote for her to stop the Republicans.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 25, 2016, 09:28:39 PM
Is there any chance of Sanders running as an independent assuming Clinton wins the nomination? Outside chance of a 4 way presidential vote?

Zero - when he eventually loses he'll endorse Hillary and tell his supporters they should vote for her to stop the Republicans.


The Young Turks raised this question last week, immediately after New York, and came up with a possibility. If it's Clinton v Trump, no chance. But if it's Clinton v Cruz, and Trump runs as an Independent, others might join in - Michael Bloomberg, Jesse Ventura, someone else. In that scenario, a Sanders run might make sense. It seems too risky to me - he might hand the Presidency to Cruz, and even if Sanders does get the most votes, the Republican majority in the House is likely to block him. So I can't see it happening either.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGEty7k2F0w


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 26, 2016, 12:16:40 AM
Hey y'all, I hope you know your math, not like that old Ted Cruz and Kasich.

You better listen up now!

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLhgUGIH1Tw


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on April 26, 2016, 12:28:10 AM
Those two should be presenting Newsnight.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 26, 2016, 02:26:26 AM
New York is very thin on Republicans. There were less than 107k votes for all Republicans in NYC. Delegates are awarded at District level, with each District made up of numerous Precincts. For such a populous city, some Precincts were returning minute vote totals for any of the party's candidates. Cruz won Greenpoint Precinct by one vote, the only vote cast.
Cruz      1 vote   100%
Trump   0 votes     0%
Kasich   0 votes     0%

Trump won Bedford in Brooklyn by the same 1-0-0 result.
(http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--EyrpvmlA--/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/lfprb3g8jvtffzpotv3z.png)

And there were several Precincts where no-one at all voted Republican.


Here is why you should always vote - every vote counts:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cgib2IiU0AARiRu.jpg)


The New York result has still not been finalised, and there could be some challenges. It's all due to Carson. He withdrew from the race too late to be left off the NY ballot papers, but did manage to file something stating that he gives up any votes or delegates he wins. There are a few Districts (three, I think) where Trump won 50.x% of the votes (not including votes for Carson) and has been given the three delegates. However, if Carson's votes are included, Trump's share falls to 49.x%, meaning he would just get two and Kasich would get the third.  It could take a while to resolve that one and it might be the courts that decide.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 26, 2016, 09:07:43 AM
Five States voting today - Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware and Rhode Island.

Trump and Clinton are ahead in all of them, except RI, where Clinton is slightly behind. Sanders also has a chance in Delaware. If she sweeps the lot, the race is as good as over.

One point to watch with the Republicans is whether Trump hits 50% in Conn, which would give him all the delegates there.

The big prize on both sides is Penn. The Democrats split their delegates proportionately and Clinton is up 55/38%. The Republicans have a very strange system here. They have 71 delegates, but the winner only gets 17 of them. The other 54 are unbound at the Convention, though the State winner would have a big influence over delegate selection.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 27, 2016, 10:19:57 AM
TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 27, 2016, 12:53:49 PM
What a belter for Trump. He is on course to win every County in all five States.

The big news is that Christie is back, standing behind Trump's right shoulder during the latest victory speech, with Christie's wife behind the left shoulder. Most people assumed Christie had been dropped from the front line as a liability and buried in the desert somewhere. He made no campaign appearances at all recently, even though Delaware and Pennsylvania border New Jersey. And yet there he was on the podium. What does it mean?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on April 27, 2016, 12:59:00 PM
if it came to it, beyond Christie who is Trump's most likely VP running mate?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on April 27, 2016, 02:26:02 PM
if it came to it, beyond Christie who is Trump's most likely VP running mate?

Kanye?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 27, 2016, 10:30:05 PM
Newsflash:

Rumours everywhere that Cruz is going to announce Carly Fiorina as his running mate tonight.

Not a big surprise as she has been representing him all over the place.

Gotta think he's doing it now for its likely effect on the Califonia Primary.



Edit: He's doing it already. Live feed http://abcnews.go.com/Live/video/special-live-3-15048938


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 27, 2016, 10:47:32 PM
OMG, she's singing! Get her off.

Indiana is also crucial for Cruz, and he already had a good chance of winning it, so the timing is undoubtedly also related to that. This could seal it for him.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 28, 2016, 09:12:35 AM
Sanders Concedes

You may have missed the announcement, as there wasn't one, but the Democrat race is over. 

This is the main part of Sanders' speech yesterday, after congratulating Hillary on her wins:
"The people in every state in this country should have the right to determine who they want as president and what the agenda of the Democratic Party should be. That's why we are in this race until the last vote is cast. That is why this campaign is going to the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia with as many delegates as possible to fight for a progressive party platform that calls for a $15 an hour minimum wage, an end to our disastrous trade policies, a Medicare-for-all health care system, breaking up Wall Street financial institutions, ending fracking in our country, making public colleges and universities tuition free and passing a carbon tax so we can effectively address the planetary crisis of climate change."

So his objectives now are the minimum wage, Wall Street, climate change and so on. What about becoming the Democrat nominee for President, Bernie? He didn't mention that at all. He is going to the Convention to lever as much return for his support so he can fight for progressive policies and shape the future of the Democratic Party.

If that wasn't enough, his campaign is laying off 300 staff. They say they don't need as many for the last few States, but that's nonsense - there are still plenty of places they could be used. An ambitious campaign doesn't lay off half its staff at this stage.

They can't come out and announce that they are no longer trying to win the nomination, as there would be no point in standing in the remaining States and no point in heading to the Convention with a mission. But it's over.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on April 28, 2016, 12:56:56 PM
this is a good read

Cruz Hopes To Tap Into Immense Popularity of Carly Fiorina

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/cruz-hopes-to-tap-into-immense-popularity-of-carly-fiorina


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Simon Galloway on April 28, 2016, 05:57:43 PM
'Trump has to convince the general electorate that he isn't Hitler.  Hillary Clinton has to convince the general electorate that she isn't Hillary Clinton.'


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on April 30, 2016, 12:29:35 PM
if it came to it, beyond Christie who is Trump's most likely VP running mate?

It’s quite risky to take on the role of being Trump’s running mate as you could end up being tarred with all the views he has expressed, and for what? To be the junior partner on a probable losing ticket. I would say it is too risky for young starry politicians like Rubio or Haley, though those particular ones are probably ruled out anyway by previous statements they have made about him. Trump could end up like George McGovern, with everyone refusing a place on the ticket. Don’t expect a young ambitious Senator who has a bright future to take the risk. It is expected to be someone older who is not risking much, in that they are unlikely to be a major contender in the future.

Candidates have often picked a running mate who complements them and brings support from a different section of the electorate, either because they are associated with different policies or issues or because they come from a different part of the nation. Kennedy/Johnson must be the classic example, but Obama/Biden, McCain/Palin, Dole/Kemp, Dukakis/Bentsen, Bush/Quayle, Carter/Mondale and several others all fit one or more of these. Clinton/Gore was the major exception, combining two Southern moderates.

Trump has mentioned several possible running mates, from Ted Cruz to Oprah Winfrey. This week he suggested Oklahoma Gov Mary Fallin. Giuliani has just suggested Kasich or Condoleezza Rice, which seems daft. I think both would be great picks, but Kasich has said he won’t do it and her Bush ties and the lesbian thing would surely rule out Condy. Scott Walker, Gov of Wisconsin and first of the 17 Presidential contenders to fall, has been mentioned, but that seems crazy after all the bad blood between the two of them so recently during the Wisconsin Primary. It surely has to be someone who didn't run for President, as Trump has fallen out with almost all of them except Carson and Christie. Carson endorsed him and gave him some of his best advisors, and said that Trump offered him a job. You're really not supposed to do that; it's illegal. Guess which job it won't be, Ben. Christie - yeah, right...get out of here. Trump seems capable of coming up with any curveball you can imagine, but playing the standard game on this is surely the best option.  

The most mentioned possibilities are: 
Indiana Gov Mike Pence
New Mexico Gov Susana Martinez
Florida Gov Rick Scott

The first two were mentioned as possible Presidential contenders at one stage. Pence has just endorsed Cruz, which probably takes him out of it, though he said he likes Trump too, so you never know. Martinez is Hispanic and a woman, two plus factors these days. Bill O'Reilly says it has to be her. Scott is a dark horse. Very conservative, he could deliver Florida, which the last couple of Republican candidates couldn't do.

One of Trump's sons has said that his father wants someone who knows his way round Washington corridors, which Trump doesn't, which would suggest that a Senator may be more likely than a Governor. The standout choice is Jeff Sessions from Alabama. He is an arch-conservative who looks like a natural Cruz man, but has supported Trump from an early stage. He could attract support from parts of the electorate that Trump can't reach. Many conservative Cruz supporters are currently saying they won't vote for Trump, so having Sessions on board might win them over. Being from the South also helps.

If I had to choose, I would say Jeff Sessions, closely followed by Susana Martinez, but it could be someone no-one has considered. Nobody had Sarah Palin on their short-list!


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 02, 2016, 01:25:37 AM
Obama:

"Eight years ago I said it was time to change the tone of our politics. In hindsight, I clearly should have been more specific."

"Next year at this time, someone else will be standing here in this very spot, and it's anyone's guess who she will be."

"Guests were asked to check whether they wanted steak or fish, but instead a whole bunch of you wrote in Paul Ryan."


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 02, 2016, 08:31:40 PM
Guns will be banned at the Republican convention, although the State of Ohio allows them. So someone has started an online petition for them to be allowed "in order to ensure the safety of your supporters, delegates and all attendees". This puts the party leaders in an awkward position. On the one hand, they and their delegates (and candidates) are the very people who are always banging on about how gun-free zones are dangerous and if only guns were allowed in crowded indoor areas like schools and cinemas, mass killers would be dealt with quickly and everyone would be safer. On the other hand, they don't want someone to get killed at the convention. Emotions are going to be running very high this time and there is going to be a lot of frustration and anger in the air. Also, a lot of alcohol is consumed at these events.

The petition quotes the argument used all the time by gun supporters: "without the right to protect themselves, those at the Quicken Loans Arena will be sitting ducks, utterly helpless against evil-doers, criminals or others who wish to threaten the American way of life”. The Republicans have been cornered and, in a delicious irony, are being forced to either live by their own convictions or be shown to be hypocritical. No doubt, some of them agree with the petition, but others don't want to be shot.

There is a suspicion that the petition was started as a joke or troll. The site hosting the petition says “our understanding is that this is not satire – the starter is pro-open carry – but it is a protest petition designed to point out GOP hypocrisy on guns”.

So far, the petition has collected more than 50,000 signatures. How those divide between genuine supporters, left-wingers kicking an exposed flank and mischief-makers just enjoying the situation is unclear, though comments on the site suggest that all of the above are involved.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 02, 2016, 08:32:14 PM
https://www.change.org/p/quicken-loans-arena-allow-open-carry-of-firearms-at-the-quicken-loans-arena-during-the-rnc-convention-in-july-2

RECOGNIZE OUR CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT TO OPEN CARRY FIREARMS AT THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION AT THE QUICKEN LOANS ARENA IN JULY 2016

SUMMARY: In July of 2016, the GOP will host its convention at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. Though Ohio is an open carry state, which allows for the open carry of guns, the hosting venue—the Quicken Loans Arena—strictly forbids the carry of firearms on their premises.

According to the policy on their website, "firearms and other weapons of any kind are strictly forbidden on the premises of Quicken Loans Arena."

This is a direct affront to the Second Amendment and puts all attendees at risk. As the National Rifle Association has made clear, "gun-free zones" such as the Quicken Loans Arena are "the worst and most dangerous of all lies." The NRA, our leading defender of gun rights, has also correctly pointed out that "gun free zones... tell every insane killer in America... (the) safest place to inflict maximum mayhem with minimum risk." (March 4, 2016 and Dec. 21, 2012)

Cleveland, Ohio is consistently ranked as one of the top ten most dangerous cities in America. By forcing attendees to leave their firearms at home, the RNC and Quicken Loans Arena are putting tens of thousands of people at risk both inside and outside of the convention site.

This doesn't even begin to factor in the possibility of an ISIS terrorist attack on the arena during the convention. Without the right to protect themselves, those at the Quicken Loans Arena will be sitting ducks, utterly helpless against evil-doers, criminals or others who wish to threaten the American way of life.

All three remaining Republican candidates have spoken out on the issue and are unified in their opposition to Barack HUSSEIN Obama's "gun-free zones."

Donald Trump said "I will get rid of gun-free zones on schools—you have—and on military bases on my first day. It gets signed my first day...you know what a gun-free zone is to a sicko? That's bait." (Jan. 8. 2016)

Ted Cruz has accurately pointed out "shooting after shooting after shooting happens in so called gun-free zones." He continued, "look, if you're a lunatic ain't nothing better then having a bunch of targets you know that are going to be unarmed." (Dec. 4, 2015)

And Ohio Governor John Kasich has been a leader in this movement to eliminate deadly "gun-free zones" starting with his brave decision to fight the Democrats and end "gun-free zones" at National Guard facilities in Ohio. (Dec. 18, 2015)

We are all too familiar with the mass carnage that can occur when citizens are denied their basic God-given rights to carry handguns or assault weapons in public. EVERY AMERICAN HAS THE RIGHT TO PROTECT AND DEFEND THEIR FAMILY. With this irresponsible and hypocritical act of selecting a "gun-free zone" for the convention, the RNC has placed its members, delegates, candidates and all US citizens in grave danger.

We must take a stand. We cannot allow the national nominating convention of the party of Lincoln and Reagan to be hijacked by weakness and political correctness. The policies of the Quicken Loans Arena do not supersede the rights given to us by our Creator in the U.S. Constitution.

THEREFORE, WE ARE CALLING TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING FIVE POINTS OF ACTION:

1. From the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland: A suspension of their policy preventing the open carry of firearms on the premises of the arena from July 18-21, 2016 to coincide with the Republican National Convention.

2. From the National Rifle Association: An immediate condemnation of the egregious affront to the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution constituted by the "gun-free zone" loophole to the state law.

3. From Ohio Governor John Kasich: A concerted effort to use his executive authority to override the "gun-free zone" loophole being exploited by the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio.

4. From Reince Priebus and the Republican National Committee: An explanation of how a venue so unfriendly to Second Amendment rights was chosen for the Republican Convention. Further, we demand a contingency plan to relocate the convention to another location should the Quicken Loans Arena refuse to honor the constitutional rights of the RNC guests to open carry firearms during the convention.

5. From all Republican candidates for President: You have been brave in raising awareness about the immense dangers posed by "gun-free zones." In order to ensure the safety of your supporters, delegates and all attendees at the convention in July, you must call upon the RNC to rectify this affront to our Second Amendment freedoms and insist upon a suspension of the Quicken Loans Arena's unconstitutional "gun-free zone" loophole. Every American is endowed with a God-given Constitutional right to carry a gun wherever and whenever they please.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on May 02, 2016, 09:15:44 PM
Have guns been allowed at Trump rallys? Given that there has been violence at pretty much all of them, seems amazing nobody has been shot yet.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 02, 2016, 09:47:01 PM
Have guns been allowed at Trump rallys? Given that there has been violence at pretty much all of them, seems amazing nobody has been shot yet.

No, not allowed. They haven't been allowed at the Republican debates either. There was an earlier petition that they should be allowed at Trump rallies, but it received virtually no attention.

https://www.change.org/p/donald-trump-allow-guns-at-trump-rallies

They are also banned from Trump buildings, which he has said he will "review". I wouldn't expect a policy change any time soon.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 02, 2016, 10:07:58 PM
Fiorina drops out:


YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6g6Emv3Oc0


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on May 03, 2016, 10:43:51 AM
Totally unprecedented to have candidates who are so strongly disliked by so many people (data by @forecasterenten)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChdFcDEUUAAnIAW.png)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on May 03, 2016, 11:24:17 AM
Have guns been allowed at Trump rallys? Given that there has been violence at pretty much all of them, seems amazing nobody has been shot yet.

It's because Trump's supporter's can show restraint.

If Trump supporters had descended onto Bernie's rallies and behaved like animals (like Bernie's supporters do disrupting Trump's rallies), there'd have been a massacre.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on May 03, 2016, 11:46:58 AM
Have guns been allowed at Trump rallys? Given that there has been violence at pretty much all of them, seems amazing nobody has been shot yet.

It's because Trump's supporter's can show restraint.

If Trump supporters had descended onto Bernie's rallies and behaved like animals (like Bernie's supporters do disrupting Trump's rallies), there'd have been a massacre.

Sadly, this is completely true. Well, at least about the Bernie supporters. Bernie is hands down the nicest most peace loving candidate, but his supporters have been absolutely awful and its largely been ignored by the media.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Doobs on May 03, 2016, 12:15:25 PM
Have guns been allowed at Trump rallys? Given that there has been violence at pretty much all of them, seems amazing nobody has been shot yet.

It's because Trump's supporter's can show restraint.

If Trump supporters had descended onto Bernie's rallies and behaved like animals (like Bernie's supporters do disrupting Trump's rallies), there'd have been a massacre.

Sadly, this is completely true. Well, at least about the Bernie supporters. Bernie is hands down the nicest most peace loving candidate, but his supporters have been absolutely awful and its largely been ignored by the media.

I don't know where to begin.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on May 03, 2016, 12:31:48 PM
"A new poll from Rasmussen Reports shows Donald Trump edging Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical general election match-up. The poll, of likely voters, finds Trump with 41 percent, followed closely by Clinton with 39 percent."

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/05/02/poll-trump-edges-clinton-voters-pushed/ (http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/05/02/poll-trump-edges-clinton-voters-pushed/)

He hasn't even started on her yet


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Doobs on May 03, 2016, 01:09:18 PM
"A new poll from Rasmussen Reports shows Donald Trump edging Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical general election match-up. The poll, of likely voters, finds Trump with 41 percent, followed closely by Clinton with 39 percent."

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/05/02/poll-trump-edges-clinton-voters-pushed/ (http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/05/02/poll-trump-edges-clinton-voters-pushed/)

He hasn't even started on her yet

Not quite the whole picture

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton)

Maybe we'll have to see what happens after the impending massacre?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on May 03, 2016, 01:14:21 PM
Not quite the whole picture

Indeed, much like the majority of this thread.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on May 03, 2016, 01:20:37 PM
Totally unprecedented to have candidates who are so strongly disliked by so many people (data by @forecasterenten)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChdFcDEUUAAnIAW.png)

This (paraphrased) quote sums up how ridiculous this election is, from John Phillips:

"If Donald Trump is going to win the general election, he’s going to have to prove to the public that he’s not Adolf Hitler. If Hillary Clinton is going to win, she has to prove she's not Hillary Clinton."

It really has become an election of 'which one do you think would ruin the country the least?'


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Doobs on May 03, 2016, 01:21:32 PM
Not quite the whole picture

Indeed, much like the majority of this thread.

There are 138 Trump/Clinton polls on that site, maybe 10 give a Trump lead, and the one you put up is the first one since January.  





Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 03, 2016, 01:51:53 PM
With Trump and Clinton being disliked by such a high percentage of the electorate, the choice of running-mate is likely to be more important than in previous years.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on May 03, 2016, 01:56:43 PM
With Trump and Clinton being disliked by such a high percentage of the electorate, the choice of running-mate is likely to be more important than in previous years.

Agree, kind of a good cop bad cop dealy.

Who do you think Clinton will pick?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 04, 2016, 02:36:47 AM
Cruz has suspended his campaign!


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: muckthenuts on May 04, 2016, 03:14:25 AM
Incredible scenes. Given how unlikely it seemed he'd get the nomination at the start you've kinda got to admire the way he's steamrollered his opponents. It seems far less credible now to think he can't find a way to win the presidency despite the 'landslide defeat' fears among the GOP, after all he's up against Hilary Clinton. The Republicans surely need to realise this and unite behind their man now.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 04, 2016, 04:06:48 AM
What an amazing, ridiculous day.

Just when you think this election can't get any more bizarre, and the Republican candidates can't sink any lower and become any less Presidential, you are proved wrong.

First Trump accused Ted Cruz' father of being involved in the JFK assassination. How random is that? Lindsey Graham tweeted "Any doubt left Trump is completely unhinged? His assertion Ted Cruz’s father was associated with Lee Harvey Oswald should remove ALL doubt."

Then Cruz decided to let it all out. He had clearly seen the Indiana figures and made a final desperate emotional statement that came across more as a concession speech than an attempt to influence people to vote for him.

"This man is a pathological liar. He doesn't know the difference between truth and lies. He lies - practically every word that comes out of his mouth.....He combines it with being a narcissist....The man is utterly amoral. Morality does not exist for him....Donald is a bully.....There is a reason Donald builds giant buildings and puts his name on them.....He is proud of being a serial philanderer.....he describes his own battles with venereal diseases as his own personal Vietnam."

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bz44wKKQJh0

I don't believe that Presidential candidates have ever described each other in such terms. Donald Trump Jr called it an "impressive meltdown" and "desperate", which didn't seem far off the truth.

The day finished with Trump winning the predicted landslide and claiming that Cruz should stand down, which he did.

The madness continues.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on May 04, 2016, 10:46:04 AM
If this didn't end with the winner getting their hands on the nuclear button, I'd probably support Trump at this stage just for the LOLs, the way he gets in people's heads reminds me of Fergie back in the glory days of Man U and the mind games with Keegan and so on.

Obvs I'm actually rooting for Clinton, which makes me sick to say, but its the least bad option.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Sheriff Fatman on May 04, 2016, 12:41:32 PM
If this didn't end with the winner getting their hands on the nuclear button, I'd probably support Trump at this stage just for the LOLs, the way he gets in people's heads reminds me of Fergie back in the glory days of Man U and the mind games with Keegan and so on.

Obvs I'm actually rooting for Clinton, which makes me sick to say, but its the least bad option.

The more I watch Trump, the more I see him as, quite literally, the nuclear option.

Just imagine the world where we're relying on all of Trump, Putin, and Kim Jong Un to be the one's not to push the button first, while in the background IS are trying to create as much fear and instability as possible.  Admittedly we have 3 out of the 4 pieces there already, but replacing Obama with Trump as the 4th piece doesn't bear thinking about.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on May 04, 2016, 12:50:16 PM
If this didn't end with the winner getting their hands on the nuclear button, I'd probably support Trump at this stage just for the LOLs, the way he gets in people's heads reminds me of Fergie back in the glory days of Man U and the mind games with Keegan and so on.

Obvs I'm actually rooting for Clinton, which makes me sick to say, but its the least bad option.

The more I watch Trump, the more I see him as, quite literally, the nuclear option.

Just imagine the world where we're relying on all of Trump, Putin, and Kim Jong Un to be the one's not to push the button first, while in the background IS are trying to create as much fear and instability as possible.  Admittedly we have 3 out of the 4 pieces there already, but replacing Obama with Trump as the 4th piece doesn't bear thinking about.

Im still not sure who the real Trump is. Part of me really thinks he is a genius Frank Underwood type, but obviously he also clearly could be the Cartman dumbass we see at face value. It depends how he fairs against Hillary, IMO if he can actually win over some fence sitters and democrats by showing a calmer liberal side as some think he can, he is the Frank Underwood type. However if its all just name calling, then yes, he will blow the world up.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Sheriff Fatman on May 04, 2016, 12:54:40 PM
Im still not sure who the real Trump is. Part of me really thinks he is a genius Frank Underwood type, but obviously he also clearly could be the Cartman dumbass we see at face value. It depends how he fairs against Hillary, IMO if he can actually win over some fence sitters and democrats by showing a calmer liberal side as some think he can, he is the Frank Underwood type. However if its all just name calling, then yes, he will blow the world up.

Regardless of which one he truly is, if the persona he displays publicly always suggests the 'Cartman dumbass' then that's the one that others will react to.  Unfortunately, in Kim Jong Un, we seem to genuinely have a Cartman dumbass already and it's his reaction to something Trump says which scares me the most!


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: muckthenuts on May 04, 2016, 01:03:32 PM
Trump might not drift to the centre too much like the final candidates tend to do, would possibly be hard for liberals to start having any faith in him given what he's come out with so far. May as well stick to the controversy that got him this far in the first place and hope more people think along his lines than are prepared to openly admit it. I think we saw elements of that with UKIP in our last election who turned out to be quite a bit more popular than anyone expected. 


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on May 04, 2016, 02:46:02 PM
Trump has single handedly shifted the Overton window to the right more than any cuckservitive ever has. He doesn't need to move to the centre, the centre has moved to him.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on May 04, 2016, 02:54:15 PM
Also, it's fascinating to observe the behaviour of American shitlibs. They say if Trump comes into power they'll move to......Canada.

Never Mexico.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on May 04, 2016, 05:32:39 PM
If this didn't end with the winner getting their hands on the nuclear button, I'd probably support Trump at this stage just for the LOLs, the way he gets in people's heads reminds me of Fergie back in the glory days of Man U and the mind games with Keegan and so on.

Obvs I'm actually rooting for Clinton, which makes me sick to say, but its the least bad option.

The more I watch Trump, the more I see him as, quite literally, the nuclear option.

Just imagine the world where we're relying on all of Trump, Putin, and Kim Jong Un to be the one's not to push the button first, while in the background IS are trying to create as much fear and instability as possible.  Admittedly we have 3 out of the 4 pieces there already, but replacing Obama with Trump as the 4th piece doesn't bear thinking about.

In short, we're fucked.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 04, 2016, 10:56:42 PM
Kasich is about to withdraw. He is due to make an announcement soon.

There are still people posting that Kasich should stay in as Trump will implode at some point. Trump has imploded many times, but it only seems to have added to his votes, not reduced them.

It's hard for Kasich to keep going when he is currently running fourth in a two-person race, as he still has fewer delegates than Rubio, who dropped out seven weeks ago.

At least there's one consolation - he can stop pretending to want to eat the crap food in all the joints he has had to visit. This is clearly a man who didn't grow up eating junk food, judging by his struggles with it.

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-gteqRgS8Thk/Vx-6HmPyHAI/AAAAAAAAJ5M/O4Xw1IR7GjM/s640/blogger-image-1905451604.jpg)

(https://i.redditmedia.com/IVINHBFngbGi6NQrCfAlHoRtuCO4I6NpVuOlOqanZNk.jpg?w=718&s=25848966e8f860858b2bbc10890bf34e)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on May 05, 2016, 12:27:16 AM
When Trump said women who had abortions should be punished, I honestly thought that would be the death knell for his campaign.

But as he survived and flourished from that, I can't see anything he could possibly say affecting his popularity.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on May 05, 2016, 12:48:47 AM
When Trump said women who had abortions should be punished, I honestly thought that would be the death knell for his campaign.

But as he survived and flourished from that, I can't see anything he could possibly say affecting his popularity.

What about actually starting a nuclear war?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 05, 2016, 12:56:20 AM
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qC16c98hDPc.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on May 05, 2016, 09:24:51 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChoVQuoW0AET_oW.jpg)

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/the-leftist-donald-trump/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 05, 2016, 03:19:51 PM
The Clinton campaign has put out an ad made up of clips of leading Republicans condemning Trump.

This is just the start. We've got six months of attacks and insults coming up.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XOocb-DId4


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on May 05, 2016, 03:41:42 PM
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QHwlpptEvo

This is another un

Both solid, like em both. Best way to defeat Trump is simply to highlight what he says, rather than distort any of it.

However, kinda think that Trump supporters will see these both and say "Fuck yeah, that's who I'm voting for."


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: muckthenuts on May 05, 2016, 03:48:52 PM
Omg those pictures of Kasich are hilarious!

No idea how many times now a "Trump implosion" has been imminent.  Kasich might be the only candidate left who could beat Hilary in a head to head though.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on May 05, 2016, 03:51:26 PM
So Trump is 1.04 to be Republican nominee.

Are we basically betting 1/20 he doesn't die before polling day?

No matter what comes out about him, the delegates are forced to support him at convention, right?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Jon MW on May 05, 2016, 04:03:46 PM
So Trump is 1.04 to be Republican nominee.

Are we basically betting 1/20 he doesn't die before polling day?

No matter what comes out about him, the delegates are forced to support him at convention, right?

I'm assuming he could also decide to pull out himself.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on May 05, 2016, 04:18:32 PM
So Trump is 1.04 to be Republican nominee.

Are we basically betting 1/20 he doesn't die before polling day?

No matter what comes out about him, the delegates are forced to support him at convention, right?


This is probably the most interesting question right now, gonna be fascinating to see what happens, I kinda think they wont.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on May 05, 2016, 04:37:58 PM
So Trump is 1.04 to be Republican nominee.

Are we basically betting 1/20 he doesn't die before polling day?

No matter what comes out about him, the delegates are forced to support him at convention, right?


This is probably the most interesting question right now, gonna be fascinating to see what happens, I kinda think they wont.



Has that ever happened before? Has a candidate been so clearly unfit for office that his own party have properly turned against him in any meaningful numbers?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on May 05, 2016, 11:54:54 PM
CNN: Donald Trump recieves huge support from Russians

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xF0jNkpxo_Y (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xF0jNkpxo_Y)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 06, 2016, 09:17:10 AM
In another first for this unprecedented race, we have an election where both candidates are under investigation:

http://www.inquisitr.com/3036689/trump-university-lawsuit-will-go-to-trial/

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-clinton-emails-cnn-idUSKCN0XW2B7



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on May 06, 2016, 01:43:54 PM
Americans have been writing to the Queen, asking if she'll take USA back, saving them from Trump/Hillary. A reply:-

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChxVHXIW0AA8JFF.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 06, 2016, 07:48:25 PM
Hey Y'All!

Donald Trump wants to deport illegal immigrants.

Diamond and Silk feel the same.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QOaEGQzFaPg


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 08, 2016, 10:55:35 PM
With Trump and Clinton being disliked by such a high percentage of the electorate, the choice of running-mate is likely to be more important than in previous years.

Agree, kind of a good cop bad cop dealy.

Who do you think Clinton will pick?

Tim Kaine is top of everyone's list, but there are still a lot of possible good running mates. Some of the names being mentioned most:

Julian Castro and Cory Booker are both former multi-term mayors, Castro of San Antonio and Booker of Newark. They are both in their forties, Castro is Hispanic and Booker is black. They both turned down job offers in Obama's cabinet to remain in charge of their cities (Booker at the start of Obama's first term and Castro at the start of the second), though they both ended up in DC, Booker becoming a Senator in 2013 and Castro eventually accepting a cabinet role in 2014. Castro has been a leading figure in Clinton's campaign and she has previously stated that she might choose him. His identical twin is in the House of Representatives. Booker may be too conservative.

Tim Kaine and Mark Warner are older, both sixtyish, have both been Governor of Virginia and are both Senators now. Kaine may go down well with Hispanics. He made the first ever all-Spanish speech in the Senate, having become fluent during a year spent as a missionary in Honduras. Former head of the DNC, he made it to Obama's Veep shortlist in 2008, along with Biden, Clinton and two others. Warner is seen as a friend of business, not an advantage. He is a leading name of the New Democrat section of the party (think Third Way), like Bill Clinton. Virginia could be a battleground State, so locking up its delegates would be attractive. 

Elizabeth Warren is more liberal than Clinton, closer to Sanders. Some of Sanders' voters say they won't vote for Clinton, but they will in the end, so Warren doesn't add liberal voters. Also, she is from Massachusetts, which is safely Democrat. On the other hand, she has massive name recognition and is hugely respected. Some voters might not be keen on a two-woman ticket, and Trump would try to exploit that, though that could backfire. But Warren is no Sarah Palin - she used to be a Harvard law professor. If you were going to pick someone who could pull off the two-women ticket, it would be her, though she may be too progressive for Clinton's taste.

Bernie Sanders seemed to indicate in an interview on Friday that he could be open to the possibility. The US media are all over it but I can't see it myself.

All the talk is about Kaine and it seems that Clinton's team has given an indication that he is in the running, but he hardly represents progress. Booker, Kaine and Warner are all just too establishment in my view. I would narrow it down to Elizabeth Warren or Julian Castro, though there are several other possibles who have been mentioned but, so far, haven't been discussed as much as these.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on May 08, 2016, 11:20:15 PM
Watched a clip of Elizabeth Warren ripping some banker to pieces  last week.




Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 09, 2016, 04:19:26 AM
There may be a bit more elbow room at the GOP Convention this year, as several of the party's senior members have decided to stay away. Quite a few well-known Republicans have made their position known:
 
Supporting Trump
Chris Christie
Ben Carson
Jeff Sessions, Alabama Senator
Newt Gingrich, former Speaker
Rick Perry, former Texas Gov
Pete Ricketts, Nebraska Gov
Rick Scott, Florida Gov
Paul LePage, Maine Gov
John Boehner, former Speaker
Mike Pence, Indiana Gov

Anti-Trump, but "Supporting the Nominee"
Mitch McConnell, Senate Majority Leader
Marco Rubio
Dick Cheney, former VP
Nikki Haley, South Carolina Gov
Bob Dole
John McCain
Kelly Ayotte, New Hampshire Senator under pressure for her seat in Nov
Rand Paul

Not Ready to Endorse
Paul Ryan, current Speaker

Not Supporting Trump
George H Bush
George W Bush
Mitt Romney
Lindsey Graham
Jeb Bush
George Pataki, former New York Gov
Ron Paul

Ryan will fall in line later. It is up to him to unite the party. He just wants to make a show that people remember so he doesn't catch blame for the expected seat losses down the card.


There are plenty of less well-known figures who won't be supporting Trump, such as:

Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse - “Why are we confined to these two terrible options? This is America. If both choices stink, we reject them and go bigger. That’s what we do.”

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan - “I said I was not going to get involved, and I would not endorse any candidate and that I was going to stay focused on Maryland. And I’m not going to take any more stupid questions about Donald Trump.”


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on May 09, 2016, 11:43:41 PM

Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse - “Why are we confined to these two terrible options? This is America. If both choices stink, we reject them and go bigger. That’s what we do. We're not British



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 10, 2016, 02:43:41 AM
Trump's team has been talking again about needing a Washington insider as VP. And guess who is favourite now? Newt Gingrich! Hahaha! Yes, the scourge of Bill Clinton is back. He has been popping up in support of Trump and has criticised the Bushes' and Romney's withholding of support as "offensive". And everyone is taking him seriously - all the media are talking him up. This is the guy who wanted to set up a colony on the moon by 2020. Also the guy who obsessively pursued Clinton's impeachment over his affair, while having one at the same time himself.

Clinton was once asked why he picked Gore as his VP, and he said it was "because I might die". With Gingrich as Veep, we will be able to rest assured that if the Nutter-in-Chief dies, we have Nutter Two already in place ready to take over. If he gets it, I would expect it to be the first time that one party's two nominees have had six marriages between them.

Also getting a lot of attention is John Kasich. No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. Kasich is still a very popular Governor and is probably the only one who could deliver the State for the party.

And some people persist in bringing up Rubio and Cruz. Those guys are not going to do it, so stop discussing it. First, they would have to row back from so much nasty stuff that was said. And secondly, they have their eyes on 2020 now. There are plenty of reasons to think that Hillary could be a one-term President and here we are, with only four years left until the election. They don't have any time to spend on undermining their reputations by being associated with a possible landslide defeat.

The search is in safe hands - Ben Carson has been put in charge of it.......


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on May 15, 2016, 09:33:16 AM
Romney recruiting Kasich and Sasse for third-party run http://hill.cm/Sa8dSdY


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 15, 2016, 12:39:06 PM
The biggest fear for Democrats has been that a new scandal involving Hillary emerges or, worse, she gets indicted by the FBI over the email thing. If that happened, who would they turn to? Not Bernie Sanders. If Hillary has to drop out, the replacement would be Joe Biden.

Journalists have been convinced that it wasn't going to happen by the establishment's argument that if the Administration felt Clinton was going to be indicted, they would have Biden out there on show as an option, in case Clinton had to withdraw, but Biden has been staying quiet. Therefore, it's not happening.

Now, the FBI investigation is building, with several of Clinton's key advisors about to be interviewed. And, suddenly, Biden is visible, popping up in interviews. So far, he is just playing the role of genial Uncle Joe talking wistfully about what might have been. He says he would have loved to have run; he regrets not running every day; he would have been the best candidate and the best President. He has made no mention of jumping in, but he is clearly available and, it has to be said, looking very Presidential, having avoided all the mud-slinging.

Sanders' supporters, and many others, would obviously be furious if Biden was dropped in ahead of Bernie. One of the stories leaked this week was that Biden and Elizabeth Warren discussed running as a pair last year. Warren confirmed that they had had long meetings, didn't say what they discussed, but didn't deny the rumour. She is one of the most progressive big-name politicians around, so they would hope that having her on the ticket would assuage some of the Sanders people.

It might not happen. The FBI hasn't interviewed Hillary yet, much less come to its conclusion. But the back-up plan is in place. The suspicion is that the Administration has had a tip-off because, previously, there was no issue and no back-up. Now there is.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on May 15, 2016, 12:49:13 PM
The biggest fear for Democrats has been that a new scandal involving Hillary emerges or, worse, she gets indicted by the FBI over the email thing. If that happened, who would they turn to? Not Bernie Sanders. If Hillary has to drop out, the replacement would be Joe Biden.

Journalists have been convinced that it wasn't going to happen by the establishment's argument that if the Administration felt Clinton was going to be indicted, they would have Biden out there on show as an option, in case Clinton had to withdraw, but Biden has been staying quiet. Therefore, it's not happening.

Now, the FBI investigation is building, with several of Clinton's key advisors about to be interviewed. And, suddenly, Biden is visible, popping up in interviews. So far, he is just playing the role of genial Uncle Joe talking wistfully about what might have been. He says he would have loved to have run; he regrets not running every day; he would have been the best candidate and the best President. He has made no mention of jumping in, but he is clearly available and, it has to be said, looking very Presidential, having avoided all the mud-slinging.

Sanders' supporters, and many others, would obviously be furious if Biden was dropped in ahead of Bernie. One of the stories leaked this week was that Biden and Elizabeth Warren discussed running as a pair last year. Warren confirmed that they had had long meetings, didn't say what they discussed, but didn't deny the rumour. She is one of the most progressive big-name politicians around, so they would hope that having her on the ticket would assuage some of the Sanders people.

It might not happen. The FBI hasn't interviewed Hillary yet, much less come to its conclusion. But the back-up plan is in place. The suspicion is that the Administration has had a tip-off because, previously, there was no issue and no back-up. Now there is.

Biden's price in betting markets has tumbled in the last week

any price you like, 200/1+ now to below 50/1 in places


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Doobs on May 17, 2016, 03:00:34 PM
<3 Obama

https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/731900496085016576 (https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/731900496085016576)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 22, 2016, 07:00:42 PM
The election has been much more squalid and nasty  than any in living memory, but it's about to get worse. This week, we saw the first serious signs of how low it's going to get over the next months.

The Clintons have many exposed areas where they can be attacked; whether 'scandals' or just decisions that others disagree with. There are financial scandals, legal scandals, government scandals, patronage scandals. There is Whitewater, which some will remember was a massive scandal at the time. There is Vince Foster's suicide. There are Bill's mistresses and which ones got paid off. Never mind the new issues like Benghazi and the emails. We could write a list that would fill this whole page. However, they have all been gone over so many times that the public has already absorbed them into its opinions. New discussion is unlikely to change anyone's mind in either direction.

So what have the websites and channels been focussing on this week? Sex. They started with the straightforward Paula Jones / Monica Lewinsky type last week, casting Hillary as an enabler because she accepted Bill's actions and, because it was so public, she may have caused other women in the general population to have to go through similar situations or even sexually abused. So far, not much new.

This week, it has stepped up dramatically. Paedophilia. Bill has been friends with Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell for years and they are trying to associate him (Bill C) with underage sex by association. The only evidence so far is that he accepted several flights on Epstein's plane and visited his island once, but they are repeating that incessantly to try to force the connections. The Clintons are still openly close with Maxwell, eg she was at Chelsea's wedding, which even the Obamas didn't get to attend. They're not so close with Epstein these days.

The chances of there being anything in these rumours is remote. But they are new, so they could change minds. Also, they are potentially more damaging than other rumours if the public reacts badly.

What makes it all much more distasteful is that the candidate hasn't been staying above it all, as you would expect. Usually, if you want to ship some dirt, you get others to do it, so you don't look so nasty. Also, you can disown it if it goes wrong. Not Donald Trump. He is in there, mixing it up himself, as well as the others who are doing it on his behalf. Sean Hannity put some of the points to Trump this week and Trump volunteered "And rape!", referring to an old allegation against Bill. Newt has also been sticking his oar in.

And we are still in May. Six months to go. Because of the way Trump is, all the old sexual allegations are likely to get mainstream airings again. There have also been some very lurid allegations against both Clintons on conspiracy sites (but not mainstream channels) for years. Surely Trump wouldn't go to that level? Who knows how low he would go? Most of the mainstream allegations are unproven anyway, so why not mix it up with some more spicy stuff?

This is what American politics has become.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 22, 2016, 08:52:29 PM
Having disparaged candidates who accept donations and have SuperPacs, as he was self-funded and, therefore, couldn't be bought, Trump has discovered that even his wealth isn't enough to buy a Presidency. He has underspent several of his opponents so far. Without checking it back, I am sure that he underspent Bush, Cruz, Clinton and Sanders, maybe others (not Kasich). He now reckons that he needs to spend $1bn on the general election and he either doesn't have it or doesn't want to spend it. He said something to the effect that he could sell some buildings but that he doesn't want to. There has been a suspicion for ages that he isn't as rich as he makes out, but no-one really knows. Maybe the buildings are  financed. Maybe not.

Anyway, he is now taking donations. Actually, he always did, but didn't make it very public. Now he is openly collecting. Also, he has had two SuperPacs start recently and a third one is about to begin. So much for not being beholden to donors or special interests. This week, he had a meeting with our old friend Sheldon Adelson. Adelson is a big fan of Newt Gingrich. He entirely financed Gingrich's campaign in 2012. Now he is going to donate $100m to Trump, probably through the new SuperPac. He has also encouraged other Jewish Republicans to do the same http://www.timesofisrael.com/adelson-implores-republican-jewish-leaders-to-support-trump/. The odds on Gingrich getting the VP job just got shorter.

Apparently, Adelson and the Republican Jewish Coalition have suggested that it would be a good idea for Trump to pay a visit to Israel, probably in July, and Trump is going. So he is already doing what special interests want to get the money. He has previously said he would be neutral in Israeli-Palestinian discussions, which didn't go down well with those in America who care about this. His neutrality is a bit less likely now - Adelson says Trump will be a "tremendous president when it comes to the safety and security of Israel". This isn't new - Adelson switched his funding to Romney after Newt was eliminated, but made Romney do the Israel trip first too.

Things have certainly changed since October:
✔  ‎‎@realDonaldTrump 
Sheldon Adelson is looking to give big dollars to Rubio because he feels he can mold him into his perfect little puppet. I agree!
11:46 AM - 13 Oct 2015

http://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/653884577300267008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

(http://wolna-polska.pl/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Bush_Peres_Adelson.jpg)
Adelson with Shimon Peres and Bush 43.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 23, 2016, 09:58:21 PM
Who is the more untrustworthy candidate? It's neck and neck..

CBS / NYT Poll 13-17 May:   Honest and Trustworthy?
                                                         Yes   No   
                                                            Hillary Clinton    32%   64%   
                                                            Donald Trump    31%   64%   


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RED-DOG on May 24, 2016, 12:46:26 AM
Hi Minty.

Just wanted to say that I have thoroughly enjoyed this thread.

Thank you.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 24, 2016, 02:30:40 AM
I've realised that people may not be familiar with Epstein and Maxwell.

Jeffrey Epstein is a billionaire who owns the largest private property in New York and has a conviction for sex with an under-age teenager. There have been numerous other allegations, but he has paid off more than a dozen girls. He has many high-ranking friends and there are allegations that he supplied under-age girls to several world leaders, though it is hard to know where reality ends and conspiracy theories start.

Ghislaine Maxwell is a daughter of Robert Maxwell and ex-girlfriend of Epstein. She is alleged to have secured young girls for him and others, but I'm not aware that any evidence has come out to support that.

The most prominent person linked to them is Prince Andrew, who has been a close friend of Epstein's for years, and they are known to have holidayed together (in Thailand), There have been allegations but, while I wouldn't be surprised if Ghislaine ensured that there were some willing women around when Andrew came to visit, I can't imagine there is anything more to it than that. Bill  and Andrew are far from being the only prominent names associated with Epstein - I know that Kevin Spacey's name came up, and there were some Presidents/Prime Ministers supposedly involved, but I don't remember who and it's not something I'm bothered to research. No evidence has been made public about anyone except Epstein.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 24, 2016, 02:46:14 AM
The last few posts have been a bit heavy.

Let's see some Trump supporters' hats:

(https://suntimesmedia.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/tues-27.jpg?w=670)

(http://www.newsmax.com/getattachment/374eb102-7871-4dd2-9a9f-4cb5df28d728/Trump-supporter-RTSAMEA.jpg.aspx)

(http://www.newsmax.com/getattachment/f545d946-0863-4b2b-b39c-ddf71332a927/Baton-Rouge-RTX26KD2.jpg.aspx)

(http://www.newsmax.com/CMSPages/GetFile.aspx?guid=5503785f-2d89-4cf1-843a-a34d26382e4b&SiteName=Newsmax&maxsidesize=600)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on May 24, 2016, 03:14:58 AM
Gonna be fun in Vegas this year, having drunken conversations about that lunatic :D

Hi Minty.

Just wanted to say that I have thoroughly enjoyed this thread.

Thank you.

100%

Been a superb thread, and MintTrav has definitely provided a very fascinating insight into the workings of the US political system.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: nirvana on May 24, 2016, 08:54:23 AM
Yep. All true. Been a great read


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on May 25, 2016, 02:01:09 PM
Mint thanks for updates.  Is there any in depth coverage in UK over the next week or so?  I'm off work so interested in watching.

Great choice of week to view. After TheDonald clean sweeps tomorrow and crushes cruz and rubio your going to see lots and lots of faces with the dawning realisations that Donald J Trump is going to be the President of the United States of America 2016. There's going to be a lot of weeping and mewling from the left and the right over it, which will be delicious to observe.

The Clinton corner will roll out all the smearing they can think of over the next few months, the last card they can play before realising that a contest between Trump and Hilary is actually no contest at all.

#TRUMP2016

Not sure if actually serious?  

How serious do you believe me to be now?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: kukushkin88 on May 25, 2016, 04:16:38 PM
Mint thanks for updates.  Is there any in depth coverage in UK over the next week or so?  I'm off work so interested in watching.

Great choice of week to view. After TheDonald clean sweeps tomorrow and crushes cruz and rubio your going to see lots and lots of faces with the dawning realisations that Donald J Trump is going to be the President of the United States of America 2016. There's going to be a lot of weeping and mewling from the left and the right over it, which will be delicious to observe.

The Clinton corner will roll out all the smearing they can think of over the next few months, the last card they can play before realising that a contest between Trump and Hilary is actually no contest at all.

#TRUMP2016

Not sure if actually serious?  

How serious do you believe me to be now?

What is it about the Donald that you are so taken by?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on May 25, 2016, 05:10:47 PM
Mint thanks for updates.  Is there any in depth coverage in UK over the next week or so?  I'm off work so interested in watching.

Great choice of week to view. After TheDonald clean sweeps tomorrow and crushes cruz and rubio your going to see lots and lots of faces with the dawning realisations that Donald J Trump is going to be the President of the United States of America 2016. There's going to be a lot of weeping and mewling from the left and the right over it, which will be delicious to observe.

The Clinton corner will roll out all the smearing they can think of over the next few months, the last card they can play before realising that a contest between Trump and Hilary is actually no contest at all.

#TRUMP2016

Not sure if actually serious?  

How serious do you believe me to be now?

What is it about the Donald that you are so taken by?

Hopefully it's not that he's taken by him but thinks the American public will vote for him.

Fwiw, I think Trump's success is almost entirely down to the media. Before coming on to this thread, the only two potential candidates I could name were Trump and Clinton, mainly because of the abuse they were getting. If the papers had taken their shot at him and then just not printed anything about him, or at least printed it somewhere a long way away from headline news, he'd never have gained the momentum that he has. Same thing with the labour party and Corbyn, they got so wrapped up in telling us how he was Hitler that they forgot to mention the other candidates.

The problem is Trump is no longer a joke. He's a genuine, serious threat to everyone in the world because he's managing to convince people to vote for him. Stupid, short sighted, idiotic people who apparently are fans of Hitler, put people nonetheless, and a lot of them. Amazes me too that politicians within America are so wrapped up in their own careers that they are refusing to see what a danger he is.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: david3103 on May 25, 2016, 05:42:00 PM
I'm no fan of Drumpf, but to suggest that his entire support is coming from neo-Nazis is ridiculous Matt. It's typical of much political debate these days, and in line with the suggestion that everyone who is supporting a Leave vote in the EU Referendum is a bigot and a racist.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on May 25, 2016, 08:07:37 PM
I'm no fan of Drumpf, but to suggest that his entire support is coming from neo-Nazis is ridiculous Matt. It's typical of much political debate these days, and in line with the suggestion that everyone who is supporting a Leave vote in the EU Referendum is a bigot and a racist.


Ok, fair enough, but do you not see the comparison? And with this man, it doesn't seem to be all that far from the truth, that he's clearly so insane in the things he's saying and yet people still think he's a good candidate to become the most powerful person in the world? I honestly cannot understand why any reasonable person could consider him a genuinely viable option as president, and here he is, one person away from achieving that.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: kukushkin88 on May 25, 2016, 08:21:03 PM
The American system is quite robust for rejecting nonsense (and excellent) policy. He won't be able to do anything crazy just by being POTUS. He will lose though, unless the big Republican money comes in to support him.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on May 25, 2016, 08:31:47 PM
I'm no fan of Drumpf, but to suggest that his entire support is coming from neo-Nazis is ridiculous Matt. It's typical of much political debate these days, and in line with the suggestion that everyone who is supporting a Leave vote in the EU Referendum is a bigot and a racist.


Ok, fair enough, but do you not see the comparison? And with this man, it doesn't seem to be all that far from the truth, that he's clearly so insane in the things he's saying and yet people still think he's a good candidate to become the most powerful person in the world? I honestly cannot understand why any reasonable person could consider him a genuinely viable option as president, and here he is, one person away from achieving that.

Everyone is so quick to point out how awful Trump and Trump supporters are, they miss what he does well.

Whatever you think of the man, 'Make America Great Again' is a fantastic slogan that says so much and speaks to disenfranchised Middle America who once believed in the American Dream, but no longer do. It is both a hopeful and a critical slogan.

He is doing a very good job of acknowledging the grievances of white middle America, something which the others do not. A good example being Bernie Sanders recently said on stage 'white people don't know what poverty is'. Now, I know exactly the point Sanders was making, but there are millions of white people who are poor in the US who would see that as an insult. Trump on the other hand is all about bringing back jobs to America.

He is obviously very good at playing on fears, which is where the racism and the 'they're coming for your guns' shit comes in.

Then you have all the anti-establishment, anti-donations, not playing by the medias rules stuff that both he and Bernie have done very well at.

He also is refreshing to many because he simply doesn't apologise when he says something 'colourful'. His critics would say that this means he is a jerk, but his fans will tell you they are sick of the phoney apologies from mainstream politicians.

America likes winners and money, so when they see him bragging like a rapper, that appeals to some people (I believe the yoof call it 'swagger').

Finally, it doesn't help when his detractors choose to demonise his fanbase as knuckle dragging troglodytes, that only strengthens their resolve and doubles their support.

I'm not a fan of the guy at all, but he nor his supporters are morons (it's took me a long time to realise this myself). I actually think he is going to prove a very tough opponent for Hillary head-to-head.

I think a Trump presidency would most likely be a disaster, but he is winning the election game.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on May 25, 2016, 09:05:35 PM
I completely agree that Trump isn't stupid, he's been given his shot and by God has he taken it.

I will point out that "make America great again" etc as a campaign is basically what Hitler did. He's also said things like he's going to ban Muslims from entering the country. This bit sound familiar too?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: kukushkin88 on May 25, 2016, 09:16:22 PM
I completely agree that Trump isn't stupid, he's been given his shot and by God has he taken it.

I will point out that "make America great again" etc as a campaign is basically what Hitler did. He's also said things like he's going to ban Muslims from entering the country. This bit sound familiar too?

If he wins, nothing much will change. Other than what any Republican President would have done anyway. The radicalism is just a mechanism to win votes from the educationally sub-normal. Is that an appropriate  nomenclature? Even he wouldn't have dreamed it would go this well.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on May 25, 2016, 09:17:01 PM
I completely agree that Trump isn't stupid, he's been given his shot and by God has he taken it.

I will point out that "make America great again" etc as a campaign is basically what Hitler did. He's also said things like he's going to ban Muslims from entering the country. This bit sound familiar too?

I'm not denying the comparison is fair and that his tactics haven't been racist and vile, just putting forward reasons why he is popular.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: david3103 on May 25, 2016, 09:33:25 PM
Drumpf appeals to the have-nots. The top 0.1% of American households have almost as much of the wealth in the US as the bottom 90%. Inequality breeds resentment and a search for an alternative to the old ways.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/13/us-wealth-inequality-top-01-worth-as-much-as-the-bottom-90

If you were a resident of Detroit say, would you be inclined to vote for an establishment politician?

I completely agree that Trump isn't stupid, he's been given his shot and by God has he taken it.

I will point out that "make America great again" etc as a campaign is basically what Hitler did. He's also said things like he's going to ban Muslims from entering the country. This bit sound familiar too?

Godwin's Law strikes.

Every politician in the world has run on the 'Make <insert name of country here> Great' ticket at some stage. It's a lot more popular than 'Vote for me and I'll bring this country to it's knees'


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: kukushkin88 on May 25, 2016, 09:36:46 PM
Drumpf appeals to the have-nots. The top 0.1% of American households have almost as much of the wealth in the US as the bottom 90%. Inequality breeds resentment and a search for an alternative to the old ways.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/13/us-wealth-inequality-top-01-worth-as-much-as-the-bottom-90

If you were a resident of Detroit say, would you be inclined to vote for an establishment politician?

I completely agree that Trump isn't stupid, he's been given his shot and by God has he taken it.

I will point out that "make America great again" etc as a campaign is basically what Hitler did. He's also said things like he's going to ban Muslims from entering the country. This bit sound familiar too?

Godwin's Law strikes.

Every politician in the world has run on the 'Make <insert name of country here> Great' ticket at some stage. It's a lot more popular than 'Vote for me and I'll bring this country to it's knees'

Britain is close for disparity of wealth and it moves closer every day that the stock market doesn't dive.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: david3103 on May 25, 2016, 09:45:46 PM
Drumpf appeals to the have-nots. The top 0.1% of American households have almost as much of the wealth in the US as the bottom 90%. Inequality breeds resentment and a search for an alternative to the old ways.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/13/us-wealth-inequality-top-01-worth-as-much-as-the-bottom-90

If you were a resident of Detroit say, would you be inclined to vote for an establishment politician?

I completely agree that Trump isn't stupid, he's been given his shot and by God has he taken it.

I will point out that "make America great again" etc as a campaign is basically what Hitler did. He's also said things like he's going to ban Muslims from entering the country. This bit sound familiar too?

Godwin's Law strikes.

Every politician in the world has run on the 'Make <insert name of country here> Great' ticket at some stage. It's a lot more popular than 'Vote for me and I'll bring this country to it's knees'

Britain is close for disparity of wealth and it moves closer every day that the stock market doesn't dive.

I think the UK figures matched the top 1% with the bottom 55% which obviously isn't good but is a long way from the US situation.

Brexit will level it all up, or down depending on your viewpoint.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 26, 2016, 02:40:22 AM
Who has run the best campaign? It's no contest. Before the voting started, then as we went from State to State, and still now after his party's race is decided, one campaign has been head and shoulders above the others. Ted Cruz has run probably the best campaign there has ever been. Clinton and Sanders have run very good campaigns (in different ways) but Cruz has been outstanding. The candidate has held his own in debates and interviews and they have done their fair share of advertising and promotion but the big difference has been in the ground campaign. Cruz has put together a very large but, more importantly, incredibly well-run team of volunteers who have delivered in State after State. It was their work that won Iowa right at the beginning, and there have been several others where they have made the difference to win or finish high enough to collect more bound delegates.

The other area where the Cruz campaign excelled was in organisation within the party. In many States, Trump won the popular vote and the majority or all of the bound delegates. This was followed, usually a week or two later, by the selection of the delegates who will attend the Convention. This is where Cruz really came through. In many States, although the public was on Trump's side, the local party preferred Cruz. The usual process is for each candidate to put forward a slate of potential delegates for selection/voting. In several States, Cruz was able to engineer the local party to the extent that the delegate list ended up being comprised almost entirely of Cruz supporters. These delegates would have been bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot but would have mostly been free to vote how they liked after that. Cruz won all 34 delegates in Colorado and 36 out of 37 delegates in Utah. Trump won the public vote in Missouri, Virginia, Louisiana and Arizona, and the delegates are bound to him on the first ballot, but most of those selected as delegates in all four States were Cruz supporters. I haven't checked beyond that, but it has definitely happened in other States too. If only Cruz could have made it to the Convention, he would have had a huge possibility of taking the nomination on the second ballot. The Cruz ground campaign was so successful because it made a huge effort to reach those making the decisions, including having substantial "persuasion teams" at the voting centres. This on-the-spot account of the in-party campaign is fascinating: http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/04/how_cruz_won_all_the_colorado_delegates.html

The Trump team, on the other hand, ran a one-pronged campaign based on the candidate's personality. They didn't do much advertising and put minimal effort into the ground campaign, both with the public and the in-house delegate selection. When they tried, it was done poorly, with misspelling of names, candidates omitted from ballots or disqualified for late fee payments and general confusion over other issues, such as the ballot number allocated to each candidate (in some States, you vote for the person's number rather than their name - the Trump campaign mixed up the numbers they were promoting). They even gave out flyers where two out of the three names were running in a different District. The suspicion is that it was all due to lack of money. As it happened, the candidate's personality turned out to be enough to swing it, but it was a risky strategy that didn't give them their best possible shot at winning.

So the race is over now. Trump is going to be the nominee, so Cruz will lay everyone off and settle down to being a Senator? Not quite - they are still at it. Washington State held its delegate selection at the weekend (unusually, before the public vote), a couple of weeks after Cruz dropped out and guess who cleaned up? Not Trump. Our man Ted won 40 out of the 41 delegates - demonstrating, yet again, his popularity with grass-roots party members (more than with the public and infinitely more than with his party's leaders). He's not going to get the nomination - so why bother continuing to collect delegates?  There are two main reasons. One is that the more delegates you have, the more influence you have. Cruz supporters will be prominent at the Convention and having all those delegates will guarantee some premium speaking slots. In debates and behind the scenes, they can bring pressure to bear on Trump to support the right-wing policies they believe in, which he doesn't. They can also influence numerous other decisions in their direction, such as the Vice-Pres selection, the rules of the Convention and party policies for future years. There are some who want to make it more difficult for a Trump-like figure to come through again by introducing rules that only allow registered Republicans to vote in future Primaries. http://nwpr.org/post/cruz-supporters-hope-influence-vp-selection-party-platform-national-convention

Secondly, we have noted already that it is only four years til the next election, and only two years til the race officially begins again. Unofficially, it has already started. Cruz is, de facto, campaigning for the 2020 nomination and, so far, he is the favourite.
 


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 26, 2016, 02:49:27 AM
Did I say that Susana Martinez had a shot at the Veep job? Forget it. Trump was in Albuquerque last week and laid into her "You've got to get your Governor to do a better job, she's not doing her job.... Syrian refugees are being relocated in large numbers to New Mexico. If I was Governor, that wouldn't be happening." Her Press Secretary said she "doesn't care about what Donald Trump says about her. She cares about what he says he will do to help New Mexicans. She's disappointed that she didn't hear anything about that last night."

She hasn't endorsed him and didn't turn up to his rally. Take her off the list.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 26, 2016, 02:57:08 AM
Cleveland is ready for the GOP Convention. It has introduced a temporary ban on bringing lumber, fireworks, explosives, drones, ice chests, coolers or ladders into the vicinity. I'm sure there is something else I would expect to see on that list. Can't think what it is.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on May 28, 2016, 01:03:30 PM
Rubio is on board. He is now a Trump supporter.

Previously, Trump was a con-artist, a lunatic, unfit to be President.

Now, Rubio is not only supporting him, but has said he is willing to make a keynote supporting speech at the Convention or to accept a role in the Administration.

It's like 1984. It doesn't matter how long or hard you fight against it - eventually everyone loves Big Brother.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on May 30, 2016, 09:30:11 AM
The horrific truth is that Donald Trump could actually win the US presidency: http://buff.ly/1sFegRg

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CjnPFuIWEAAdXAU.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: redsimon on May 30, 2016, 09:42:48 AM
Are there any polls state by state, as the Electoral College system presumably can skew "national" figures?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: hector62 on May 30, 2016, 10:30:02 AM
I hope the Democrats come to their senses and ditch Hilary and go for Bernie Sanders. I saw him for the first time this weekend and he really impressed me, which is very unusual for a politician in this day and age.

I do find Trump entertaining though. He stated last week that " No one knows more about tax returns than me. Maybe not ever, in the history of the world."

God help America.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: cheesies on June 01, 2016, 11:54:11 AM
I hope the Democrats come to their senses and ditch Hilary and go for Bernie Sanders.
^^^ Is there a chance of this happening? Mintrav seems to have written him off but as Trump gets stronger and stronger vs Hilary, could there be a point where they end up going with Sanders as he polls so much better vs Trump? Delegates are close, could enough supers jump ship/contested convention? Assuming she isn't indicted for the emails thing that is...


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on June 08, 2016, 07:02:14 PM
So Bernie has vowed to keep going despite Clinton securing enough votes to be presumptive nominee.

How does he go about being the democratic nominee in that instance (In lamens terms please)?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on June 08, 2016, 07:45:31 PM
So Bernie has vowed to keep going despite Clinton securing enough votes to be presumptive nominee.

How does he go about being the democratic nominee in that instance (In lamens terms please)?

All the superdelegates are just people who can vote for whoever they want. He needs to persuade loads of them to switch from Hillary to him.

He will fail.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on June 09, 2016, 10:37:21 AM
a great essay on Robert Taft, Donald Trump, JFK and Paul Ryan’s profile in cowardice - The Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/paul-ryans-profile-in-cowardice/2016/06/06/3b45db34-2c15-11e6-9b37-42985f6a265c_story.html


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on June 12, 2016, 07:16:49 PM
Trump turns the latest gun tragedy into a back patting excercise for himself.

Surely he must be almost as short to get shot, as he is to win the election.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on June 19, 2016, 01:15:24 AM
Mate just sent me this, lol.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0khR11eRvfQ


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: PokerBroker on June 19, 2016, 11:32:34 AM
very clever. 


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on June 22, 2016, 02:46:49 PM
Trump’s Nevada HQ is shuttered.  He has one person in New Hampshire.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/22/us/politics/donald-trump-fund-raising-republicans.html?_r=0


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 03, 2016, 08:49:41 AM
Kim Ghattas ‏@BBCKimGhattas

Clinton aide says Clinton was interviewed by FBI this AM, for abt 3.5 hrs, in DC, abt her email arrangement.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 03, 2016, 08:51:23 AM
FBI Decision on Clinton Is Imminent

https://politicalwire.com/2016/07/02/fbi-decision-on-clinton-is-imminent/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on July 04, 2016, 03:26:11 PM
Senator Admits The FBI Is "About To Ask Putin For His Copies Of Hillary's Emails"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-03/senator-admits-fbi-about-ask-putin-his-copies-hillarys-emails (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-03/senator-admits-fbi-about-ask-putin-his-copies-hillarys-emails)


U.N. Official 'Accidentally' Crushes Own Throat Right Before Testifying Against Hillary Clinton

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-02/un-official-accidentally-crushes-own-throat-right-testifying-against-hillary-clinton (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-02/un-official-accidentally-crushes-own-throat-right-testifying-against-hillary-clinton)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: kukushkin88 on July 04, 2016, 03:38:48 PM
Senator Admits The FBI Is "About To Ask Putin For His Copies Of Hillary's Emails"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-03/senator-admits-fbi-about-ask-putin-his-copies-hillarys-emails (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-03/senator-admits-fbi-about-ask-putin-his-copies-hillarys-emails)


U.N. Official 'Accidentally' Crushes Own Throat Right Before Testifying Against Hillary Clinton

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-02/un-official-accidentally-crushes-own-throat-right-testifying-against-hillary-clinton (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-02/un-official-accidentally-crushes-own-throat-right-testifying-against-hillary-clinton)

Were you a big fan of the American Apprentice?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on July 04, 2016, 05:04:49 PM
Were you a big fan of the American Apprentice?

I don't watch American TV so I guess my answer is no.

Are you a fan of corruption?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: david3103 on July 04, 2016, 08:02:55 PM
Senator Admits The FBI Is "About To Ask Putin For His Copies Of Hillary's Emails"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-03/senator-admits-fbi-about-ask-putin-his-copies-hillarys-emails (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-03/senator-admits-fbi-about-ask-putin-his-copies-hillarys-emails)


U.N. Official 'Accidentally' Crushes Own Throat Right Before Testifying Against Hillary Clinton

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-02/un-official-accidentally-crushes-own-throat-right-testifying-against-hillary-clinton (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-02/un-official-accidentally-crushes-own-throat-right-testifying-against-hillary-clinton)

So many lies and distortions in the John Ashe piece, and so few facts in the emails piece.

The headline in the emails piece is divorced from the story. It's journalism, or activism of the worst kind. Fairly standard for Drumpf supporters I guess.

The Ashe story, well, for one thing he wasn't actually scheduled to testify against Clnton at all.

http://www.snopes.com/un-official-john-ashe-killed-the-day-before-he-was-to-testify-against-hillary-clinton/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 05, 2016, 09:06:42 AM
WikiLeaks Releases Over 1,000 Clinton Iraq War Emails

http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2016/07/04/wikileaks-releases-clinton-war-emails/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 06, 2016, 09:08:54 AM
Of the ~30,000 emails turned over, FBI found 110 emails in 52 chains contained classified information; 8 contained top secret info at time.

decision not to charge

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmnIJXnW8AA9CGA.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: neeko on July 06, 2016, 09:39:24 AM
Of the ~30,000 emails turned over, FBI found 110 emails in 52 chains contained classified information; 8 contained top secret info at time.

decision not to charge

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmnIJXnW8AA9CGA.jpg)

0.03% of her email is top secret - she must get a lot of junk mail.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on July 06, 2016, 11:59:16 AM
(http://i.imgur.com/CPHvFmR.png)

She has admitted to both (1) and (2)?



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 11, 2016, 10:38:04 AM
Indiana Governor Mike Pence is now odds-on to be Donald Trump's running-mate. http://lbrk.es/ULQX30278Xt

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CnEjMm_XYAAawb6.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 13, 2016, 08:54:02 AM
Bernie Sanders endorses Hillary Clinton for Democratic presidential nomination.

http://www.newstatesman.com/world/2016/07/bernie-sanders-endorses-hillary-clinton-democratic-presidential-nomination

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CnLbAZZXEAALCQA.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 14, 2016, 02:10:14 PM
polls

Trump's just pulled ahead of Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania...



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 15, 2016, 09:23:35 AM
Indiana Gov. Mike Pence is Donald Trump's pick for VP.

(https://o.twimg.com/2/proxy.jpg?t=HBjBAWh0dHA6Ly93d3cuZ2FubmV0dC1jZG4uY29tLy1tbS0vMjNmYWJhYWJkNTBiZmRmNzk2MTE1MGVmODU1NzRmMTZkZmM4N2FjMy9jPTM5MC0wLTI3MDYtMjMxNiZyPXg2NDMmYz02NDB4NjQwL2xvY2FsLy0vbWVkaWEvMjAxNi8wNy8xNC9SaWNobW9uZC9COTMyMjk1MjM4OVouMV8yMDE2MDcxNDEwMjAzMV8wMDBfR1A0RjA3MFJSLjEtMC5qcGcUgAoUnAUcFIQGFJQDAAAWABIA&s=BJQxnU94uNv13at6UMvY2--kXtsfzjzqmqRp-XtuHCM)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 18, 2016, 10:23:22 AM
Trump's former ghostwriter has his say...

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cnoh4ggWgAApfdq.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 18, 2016, 12:36:24 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CnpCLXQWEAEEmVW.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: david3103 on July 18, 2016, 09:59:08 PM
Trump's former ghostwriter has his say...

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cnoh4ggWgAApfdq.jpg)

Not sure that excellent is the appropriate word there.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on July 19, 2016, 10:27:01 AM
When I was a kid, every time there was a big international incident - like a Russian battleship being found in waters it wasn't allowed to be in or whatever - there was always a big thing on the news about a clock which showed theoretically how many minutes until the end of the world there is, and moving it a minute closer to midnight was a major announcement.

I haven't heard about this clock for many, many years. Does it still exist?

And if so, what would the time read if Trump wins the election?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on July 19, 2016, 10:31:05 AM
It does still exist and we are at 11.57pm FFS.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock

Trump winning must push it to one minute to midnight surely?!?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 19, 2016, 10:42:52 AM
Oh

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CntW62-WEAAsCKQ.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: redsimon on July 19, 2016, 01:40:01 PM
I remember Joe Biden once ripped off a Kinnock speech in the 1980's, nothings new even plagiarism :)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on July 19, 2016, 07:53:27 PM
Now that the nominations are virtually secured, most States become irrelevant, in that they are safe Dem or Rep. The swing States decide the President. The problem is, analysts can't agree which ones they are. Most of them are clear, but there are several that fall in or out of swing, depending on where you look. It seems impossible to find two sites that agree exactly on which States are in play.

They are likely to be:
Sunbelt - Florida, Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada.
Rustbelt - Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania.
Other - New Hampshire.

Not everyone includes Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada - or even Ohio! Some include Missouri. Some still include New Mexico, which used to be swing, but is safe Dem now. So there are some differences, but there is a lot of overlap. The three below are quite close to my list, but not exactly, and differ from each other (others differ more than this):

(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/SkHQcWHSmCVZLBcKpWhfqA--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9ODAw/http://media.zenfs.com/en-US/homerun/mic_26/804d97cad0078dcccaa4d9429ec69eae)(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/10/20121025_election3_1.png)(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;5&AZ=2;11;5&AR=2;6;6&CA=1;55;5&CO=3;9;5&CT=1;7;5&DE=1;3;5&DC=1;3;9&FL=3;29;5&GA=2;16;5&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;20;5&IN=2;11;5&IA=3;6;5&KS=2;6;6&KY=2;8;6&LA=2;8;5&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;11;6&MI=3;16;5&MN=3;10;5&MS=2;6;5&MO=2;10;5&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;6;5&NH=3;4;5&NJ=1;14;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;29;6&NC=3;15;4&ND=2;3;5&OH=3;18;5&OK=2;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=3;20;5&RI=1;4;6&SC=2;9;5&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;11;5&TX=2;38;5&UT=2;6;7&VT=1;3;6&VA=3;13;5&WA=1;12;5&WV=2;5;6&WI=3;10;5&WY=2;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;5&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;5&NE2=2;1;5&NE3=2;1;7)


The eleven States listed above are pretty much where the Presidency will be decided. Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio are the most important, due to the number of Electoral College votes they have but, between them, the five Sunbelt States and the five Rustbelt states have almost exactly the same number of votes. The strange thing this time is that Trump is holding his own in the usually-Democrat Northern States, while Clinton is well ahead in the usually-Republican Southern ones. Even if Trump wins all five Rustbelt States (which all went to Obama last time), he will still lose unless he can hold on to some of the Sunbelt marginals.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on July 19, 2016, 08:27:13 PM
This pic, instagrammed by Paul Ryan at the weekend with the caption "I think this sets a record for the most number of #CapitolHill interns in a single selfie. #SpeakerSelfie", has caused massive controversy Stateside. DUCY?

(http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.2715706.1468863369!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/article_750/interns19n-1-web.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on July 19, 2016, 08:33:34 PM
All white?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: nirvana on July 19, 2016, 08:41:47 PM
All white?

It actually smacks you in the face quite hard - looks pretty unnatural


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on July 19, 2016, 11:34:17 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/19/most-voters-say-donald-trump-isnt-qualified-but-some-of-them-are-backing-him-anyway-heres-why/

58% of voters say Trump isn't qualified to be President.

Yet he only trails Hillary by 4%.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on July 20, 2016, 07:46:36 AM
That photo should be terrifying for Republican leaders. Not for the bit of heat they are taking now, but because it demonstrates the future of the party. The subjects all look very clever and all that, but if the party is not attracting young smart black/Hispanic/Asian kids, future voter support from those groups will be even more difficult. George W Bush has, apparently, expressed concern than he might be the last Republican President. This is another reason why he could be right.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on July 20, 2016, 10:48:44 AM
Republicans staying away from the Convention include Mitt Romney, John McCain, Lindsey Graham, Rand Paul, John Kasich, all the Bushes, Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio and a bunch of Senators and Congressmen. Most fundamentally disagree with having Trump as a candidate, though a few have given other reasons ("I've got to mow my lawn" - Sen Jeff Flake).

Does it matter? One of them really does - the most important non-show is Kasich. Trump's task in the election can be seen as quite simple - he has to win all the States Romney won in 2012, plus Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Kasich is the highly-popular Governor of a large swing-State and could deliver Ohio if he chooses. He already has the support of the young moms and centrists that the Republicans dream of getting elsewhere. The Trumps have offered him all sorts to show but he ain't coming, even though the Convention is taking place in Ohio. There was a lot of bad blood spilled in the Primaries but the main reason may be that he doesn't want to be associated with the fiasco after it blows up in November. Like some of the others, Kasich is already running for 2020.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on July 20, 2016, 11:42:33 AM
All white?

It actually smacks you in the face quite hard - looks pretty unnatural

I had to recheck a few times, as I thought it couldn't possibly be that.

It definitely looks rather strange.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 20, 2016, 12:22:44 PM
Black Lives Matter could win it for Trump, says Christopher Caldwell http://specc.ie/29FwPf8


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: neeko on July 20, 2016, 04:13:38 PM
This pic, instagrammed by Paul Ryan at the weekend with the caption "I think this sets a record for the most number of #CapitolHill interns in a single selfie. #SpeakerSelfie", has caused massive controversy Stateside. DUCY?

(http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.2715706.1468863369!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/article_750/interns19n-1-web.jpg)


Same country?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CnwkaNBWEAQ7tFe?format=jpg&name=large)

These are the democrat interns.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on July 20, 2016, 04:33:49 PM
It seems Melania plagiarised someone else as well as Michelle:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KtzdP7mR-4


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on July 21, 2016, 12:26:01 AM
It seems Melania plagiarised someone else as well as Michelle:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KtzdP7mR-4

Surely that is the speech writer trolling Melania?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on July 21, 2016, 03:23:06 AM
It seems Melania plagiarised someone else as well as Michelle:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KtzdP7mR-4

Surely that is the speech writer trolling Melania?

Probably not. She has been with Trump for years and helps him with the writing thing. She acknowledged "Melania Knauss for her kind assistance" in one of them. I think it was just one of those things.

(https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/514fVi0HCbL._SX301_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg)(https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51uJv%2BP1RsL._SY344_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg)
(https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51PHhAsXw-L._SX299_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg)(https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/41nRjImM8oL._UY250_.jpg)(https://theideagirlsays.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/donald-j-trump-robert-t-kiyosaki-meredith-mciver-sharon-licher-why-we-want-you-to-be-rich-book-cover-the-idea-girl-linda-randall1.jpg)(https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51uX5ntkNnL._SX318_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on July 21, 2016, 03:38:31 AM
Day 3 of the GOP Convention. We are expecting to hear from:

Rick Scott
Scott Walker
Marco Rubio (by video-link)
Ted Cruz (prob no endorsement, but will just lay into Clinton)
Eric Trump
Newt Gingrich (and his wife!?)

and finally

Mike Pence

There have been reports today that Donald Jr offered the Vice-Presidency to Kasich, with the most power ever for a VP, in charge of both foreign and domestic policy, but was turned down.

Rubio, Cruz and Walker are all teeing up another run at the White House. Cruz, in particular, has indicated that he will present a conservative message, quite different to Trump's agenda.

Trump's hostile takeover of the GOP has extended to his family taking over the Convention. We have already heard from Melania, Donald Jr and Tiffany. Tonight it's Eric's turn. I'll be shocked if Ivanka is not on tomorrow night.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 21, 2016, 12:18:41 PM
Donald Trump Sets Conditions for Defending NATO Allies Against Attack http://nyti.ms/29PRRHZ 


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: doubleup on July 21, 2016, 12:52:44 PM
Donald Trump Sets Conditions for Defending NATO Allies Against Attack http://nyti.ms/29PRRHZ 

The guy is absolutely desperate for WW3 or genuinely a moron.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on July 22, 2016, 12:57:21 AM
Last night was the most extraordinary night ever at a party Convention. Ted Cruz came into the midst of the Trump supporters and the RNC and defied them all. He had the crowd on his side with the usual stuff about freedom, Second Amendment, IRS, police, military - a standard good Cruz speech based on concept and emotion, short on policy. They cheered him until it got near the end and they realised that he hadn't mentioned Trump. The highlight came when he told people at home to "vote your conscience, vote for candidates up and down the ticket who you trust to defend our freedom and to be faithful to the Constitution", with the delegates nearly drowning out the end of the speech with boos and chants of "Endorse Trump". So far as I know, no-one has ever been booed before at one of the main party Conventions.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKx2iDSnJwQ

Cruz may have committed political suicide, but we won't know for some time. His gamble depends on Republicans coming to regret nominating Trump and Cruz being remembered for standing up for conservative anti-establishment values against the establishment (which now includes DJT). He needed the boos. Trump undermined the speech by arriving just before the end, knowing the cameras would cut away to him during Ted's finale.

Another amazing aspect was that Newt Gingrich told the delegates they misunderstood what Cruz meant and passed off an unbelievable piece of logic - Cruz said vote your conscience for whoever who will uphold the Constitution; the only candidate who will uphold the Constitution is Trump; therefore Cruz meant 'Vote for Trump'. It was such a blatant lie, but he seemed to get away without criticism for it.
 
This morning, Cruz got it from several people at a breakfast meeting and answered them. Now he is being criticised for how he went about that.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uk4OE6HyvXE


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on July 22, 2016, 01:39:02 AM
Apart from the politicians, there has been a bizarre troupe of speakers this week, the oddest being Scott Baio from Happy Days and Dana White from UFC wrestling. Tonight, we will have Jerry Falwell, the evangelist.

I am looking forward to hearing Ivanka, though, who is a really good speaker.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 22, 2016, 09:40:18 AM
Ivanka Trump pitches father as champion of women http://politi.co/29Xuu0I

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cn8kSZEW8AAf-V9.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RED-DOG on July 22, 2016, 01:18:04 PM
I couldn't sleep last night so I put the radio on and listened to part of Trump's acceptance speech.

My ears were hearing trump, but my mind's eye was seeing this.


YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0V_xf3OQgM


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on July 22, 2016, 01:29:43 PM
So, the Republican Convention is over. A strange affair. A lot of leading Republicans, who might have spoken, didn't want to be part of it, so Trump filled the slots with his family, the other Presidential candidates and an assortment of business and entertainment names. A few impressions:

- The terrorists are coming. The over-riding message was fear, especially on Day 1, themed "Make America Safe Again". Giuliani went mental, screaming into the microphone, arms everywhere. His speech is very entertaining if you want to watch it - so long as you keep in mind that he is unhinged.
(http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2016/07/19/103799385-GettyImages-577291912.530x298.jpg?v=1468936906)


- Hillary is the devil. Who didn't see that coming? "Lock her up" was one of the main chants throughout, which is a bit scary. Christie put Hillary on trial, with the mob as jury. The top three words used at the Convention were Hillary, Clinton and America.

-Ted Cruz' political future is in the balance. He alienated a lot of Republicans, including some of his own supporters. It wasn't political positioning - people were seriously upset about the non-endorsement. More critically,  perhaps, he was turned away from Sheldon Anderson's suite afterwards. Will it pay off in the end? Only four years to wait to find out.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7hUtCOSV7M


- Mike Who? The introduction of the potential VP to the American people was totally overshadowed by the Cruz affair.

- Be careful what you're cheering for. Trump and others slipped several references to issues such as helping the less well-off and supporting LGBT rights into their speeches, and managed to get applause and cheers from people who wouldn't usually support those causes, who were carried along by the occasion.

- Donald Trump is a good man. This was a new departure, but speaker after speaker told what a good and kind person Donald is, always trying to help those less fortunate. This was clearly a planned theme and I expect we will hear a lot of it in the coming weeks.

- Donald Jr and Ivanka came across well - well enough to be discussed as future candidates.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 23, 2016, 10:35:57 AM
interesting article

Can Trump win with white voters only?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-36828113


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on July 23, 2016, 10:57:52 AM
Much more interesting is the Wikileaks exposure last night about the Democrats

http://thenextweb.com/insider/2016/07/23/newest-wikileaks-email-dump-proves-dnc-officials-colluded-to-secure-clinton-nomination/#gref

Lots of juicy stuff including:

1) Someone in the DNC made a fake sexist job advert for Trump's business
2) Hillary's team were planning to use Bernie's atheism against him
3) More suggestions of DNC collusion against Bernie

Tons of other shit, the wikileaks release was part 1, another is expected


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on July 23, 2016, 12:36:23 PM
The Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson, has scarcely been mentioned, yet he may become one of the most important determinants of the election.

He has been running at about 10% in the national polls, but last week reached 12% in a CBS and 13% in one by CNN - and that is with virtually no media coverage.

You would expect him to take more from the Republican candidate but comparisons of three-way and four-way match-ups with one-on-one Clinton-Trump match-ups show him currently taking more from Clinton.

If he can get to 15%,he will have a strong claim to be included in the debates. Then, he could really blow the election apart. The whole outcome may depend on how well he does and where his support comes from.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on July 23, 2016, 02:44:08 PM
The Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson, has scarcely been mentioned, yet he may become one of the most important determinants of the election.

He has been running at about 10% in the national polls, but last week reached 12% in a CBS and 13% in one by CNN - and that is with virtually no media coverage.

You would expect him to take more from the Republican candidate but comparisons of three-way and four-way match-ups with one-on-one Clinton-Trump match-ups show him currently taking more from Clinton.

If he can get to 15%,he will have a strong claim to be included in the debates. Then, he could really blow the election apart. The whole outcome may depend on how well he does and where his support comes from.



Yes I've been following Gary closely he could indeed change the direction of the race if he gets in. Talks a lot of sense to the centrists imo and would be the only likeable candidate. He'd never win but could take enough votes off whoever is currently leading potentially


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on July 23, 2016, 07:14:15 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/clinton-vp-pick-tim-kaine-226013

So Hillary has gone for the safe option. Kaine has been the frontrunner all along and Bill has reportedly been stuck on him for a while, but Hillary was still open to the other options and, apparently, only decided this week. Kaine is also a favourite of Obama's and nearly got the job last time.

There were plenty of Democrats hoping for a more progressive choice, but most of Bernie's supporters aren't voting for Trump, so Hillary can now reposition her campaign back towards the centre. Kaine being from a swing State is also a bonus.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: neeko on July 23, 2016, 10:23:16 PM
I have always wondered does Bill keep max security clearance?

If Hillary became president can she tell him things that he was not able to tell her? (When she was First Lady she presumably had limited security authorities so Bill as president could not tell her anything)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on July 23, 2016, 10:32:34 PM
I have always wondered does Bill keep max security clearance?

If Hillary became president can she tell him things that he was not able to tell her? (When she was First Lady she presumably had limited security authorities so Bill as president could not tell her anything)

I'd imagine she had DV clearance as first lady.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 24, 2016, 10:37:28 AM
Michael Moore ‏@MMFlint

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but as things stand today, I think Trump will win. Here's my 5 reasons why:

http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 25, 2016, 12:33:22 PM
Trump takes lead in post convention CNN CNN/ORC poll

Trump 48% (+6)
Clinton 45% (-4)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Sheriff Fatman on July 25, 2016, 02:27:34 PM
This pic, instagrammed by Paul Ryan at the weekend with the caption "I think this sets a record for the most number of #CapitolHill interns in a single selfie. #SpeakerSelfie", has caused massive controversy Stateside. DUCY?

(http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.2715706.1468863369!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/article_750/interns19n-1-web.jpg)


Same country?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CnwkaNBWEAQ7tFe?format=jpg&name=large)

These are the democrat interns.

Reminded me of this scene from the South Park Movie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQnEBSwdAXw


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on July 25, 2016, 02:54:30 PM
Whites very under-represented. Democrats trying too hard?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: bobAlike on July 25, 2016, 06:14:34 PM
I have always wondered does Bill keep max security clearance?

If Hillary became president can she tell him things that he was not able to tell her? (When she was First Lady she presumably had limited security authorities so Bill as president could not tell her anything)

I'd imagine she had DV clearance as first lady.

Since when has security been an issue for Clinton? She used an unsecured email server lol


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on July 25, 2016, 11:01:54 PM
Her suitability for clearance is a whole different discussion :D


Just been watching Bernie @ the pre DNC bit, and I see that the 'super-delegates' are down by 60% at the next election.

Surely that's a good thing, to make things fairer moving forward?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on July 26, 2016, 01:52:50 AM
Yeah, I didn't know that until he came out with it. Wonder how recently it was agreed. They've really got the DNC on the back foot now, so they should be able to press for plenty of changes. Sanders' other options also strengthen his hand in getting change in the party, but I'm surprised they have knocked away so many of the super-delegates so easily. Getting rid of Debbie Wasserman Schultz is also a significant victory, which he is portraying as an opportunity for new leadership for the party.

Interestingly, Sanders is coming under a lot of pressure from progressives, both within and outside the party, to renounce Hillary and withdraw his endorsement. Probably unfairly, they are questioning his integrity if he provides support to the forces who undermined his campaign.

Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, encapsulated the feeling of a lot of Sanders fans - “You want to affirm a corrupt party that just dragged you across the coals? You expect your supporters, who have a vision and who voted for integrity, to follow you into this shithole? Is there no respect here for his campaign and for himself? Are they just going to pretend it didn’t happen? I think it would be very hard for a self-respecting Sanders supporter, in light of these revelations, to take the beating and humiliate themselves and disrespect themselves, to go into the campaign and support the predator who destroyed them.”

Stein is running at 5% and has repeated her previous offer to stand aside if Sanders wants to take over the Green candidacy. No doubt, support would immediately jump and Sanders would get into the debates. In a way, he could easily do it as he has been a member of the Democratic Party for less than a year. But Sanders is staying where he is. He knows that splitting the Democrat vote would put Trump in the White House and told his supporters "We have got to defeat Donald Trump - and we have got to elect Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine."

The Convention has been hastily reorganised to try to avoid, or at least minimise, booing on the floor. DWS had offered to reduce her major role to just opening and closing it and making a short statement. Today, Sanders' delegates booed Wasserman Schmidt and Clinton. They even seemed to be booing Sanders himself for telling them to support Clinton. DWS was also booed direct at a meeting today. Later on, she said that she won't be speaking at all or doing the opening/closing bits, which should help.

The Convention is already is disarray before it even starts. And we thought that this week would be boring compared with the Republicans!

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqLsjaPEDC4


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on July 26, 2016, 02:44:53 AM
Oh dear. The replacement, the Mayor of Baltimore, fecked up the opening ceremony by forgetting to bang the gavel and had to run back on to do it. Not the best start to the week.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sq_G-5AYuI0


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on July 26, 2016, 09:29:50 AM
The Sanders supporters are proving to be a bit of a problem at the Convention, booing whenever Hillary's name is mentioned. Bernie himself tried to control them at his pre-meeting and in his Convention speech, but they're not listening, even to him. The Clintonites are trying to drown them out with cheering, but it's a mess and it looks like this is going to continue throughout. Gratuitously insulting them from the platform, as Michelle Obama and others have done, ain't gonna help.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on July 26, 2016, 11:36:39 AM
The Sanders supporters are proving to be a bit of a problem at the Convention, booing whenever Hillary's name is mentioned. Bernie himself tried to control them at his pre-meeting and in his Convention speech, but they're not listening, even to him. The Clintonites are trying to drown them out with cheering, but it's a mess and it looks like this is going to continue throughout. Gratuitously insulting them from the platform, as Michelle Obama and others have done, ain't gonna help.

Would you say the booing was worse last night than at the RNC?

Of course most of the booing was at the Republican old Guard at the RNC, here it was at the presumptive nominee.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on July 26, 2016, 02:23:54 PM
The Sanders supporters are proving to be a bit of a problem at the Convention, booing whenever Hillary's name is mentioned. Bernie himself tried to control them at his pre-meeting and in his Convention speech, but they're not listening, even to him. The Clintonites are trying to drown them out with cheering, but it's a mess and it looks like this is going to continue throughout. Gratuitously insulting them from the platform, as Michelle Obama and others have done, ain't gonna help.

Would you say the booing was worse last night than at the RNC?

Of course most of the booing was at the Republican old Guard at the RNC, here it was at the presumptive nominee.

It depends on what we mean by 'worse'. I thought the GOP booing was just during the Cruz speech, plus the chaos on Day 1. Was there more that I missed? The Cruz booing was louder and more vicious, probably because the recipient was standing in front of them, and kind of goading them. But it was a one-off - most Trump-haters stayed away. The Dem booing is more sustained and could have a worse effect on the Convention.

Overall, it was a very good night for the Democrats. There was a succession of speakers from Hispanic backgrounds whose parents or themselves had been immigrants, some undocumented, a few of whom were now in Congress. There was a kid who was worried her family would be deported, with footage of Hillary telling her that she would do the worrying for her. There was a bunch of assorted politicians and several Presidents of various trade and teaching organisations (I didn't watch them). There was a disabled woman who had been to the White House as a kid and told how Hillary didn't leave it at that,  but kept in touch and helped her at various stages of her life - helping her get into mainstream education, then higher education and employment. She probably helped Hillary's image more than any of her heavyweight endorsements.

The big names included Michelle Obama, Cory Booker, Joe Kennedy, Elizabeth Warren and Sanders, and they were all incredibly good. Michelle can roll out an emotional, motivational, personal speech in her sleep by now. Having so many big-hitters just on Day 1, with so many more still to come, seemed a huge contrast to last week. The Republicans probably don't have as many household names, so having several likely headliners stay at home made it seem like they had to put out the second string at times, whereas this was star-time in comparison.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on July 26, 2016, 03:49:08 PM
The Sanders supporters are proving to be a bit of a problem at the Convention, booing whenever Hillary's name is mentioned. Bernie himself tried to control them at his pre-meeting and in his Convention speech, but they're not listening, even to him. The Clintonites are trying to drown them out with cheering, but it's a mess and it looks like this is going to continue throughout. Gratuitously insulting them from the platform, as Michelle Obama and others have done, ain't gonna help.

Would you say the booing was worse last night than at the RNC?

Of course most of the booing was at the Republican old Guard at the RNC, here it was at the presumptive nominee.


It depends on what we mean by 'worse'. I thought the GOP booing was just during the Cruz speech, plus the chaos on Day 1. Was there more that I missed? The Cruz booing was louder and more vicious, probably because the recipient was standing in front of them, and kind of goading them. But it was a one-off - most Trump-haters stayed away. The Dem booing is more sustained and could have a worse effect on the Convention.

Overall, it was a very good night for the Democrats. There was a succession of speakers from Hispanic backgrounds whose parents or themselves had been immigrants, some undocumented, a few of whom were now in Congress. There was a kid who was worried her family would be deported, with footage of Hillary telling her that she would do the worrying for her. There was a bunch of assorted politicians and several Presidents of various trade and teaching organisations (I didn't watch them). There was a disabled woman who had been to the White House as a kid and told how Hillary didn't leave it at that,  but kept in touch and helped her at various stages of her life - helping her get into mainstream education, then higher education and employment. She probably helped Hillary's image more than any of her heavyweight endorsements.

The big names included Michelle Obama, Cory Booker, Joe Kennedy, Elizabeth Warren and Sanders, and they were all incredibly good. Michelle can roll out an emotional, motivational, personal speech in her sleep by now. Having so many big-hitters just on Day 1, with so many more still to come, seemed a huge contrast to last week. The Republicans probably don't have as many household names, so having several likely headliners stay at home made it seem like they had to put out the second string at times, whereas this was star-time in comparison.

I saw Eva Longoria's, and Michelle Obama's, which where both very good.

I read an article saying that Trump having to wheel out his family to big him up, showed just how weak his support is.

Hopefully it is only a very small minority of Bernie supporters that actually don't vote for Hilary.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on July 26, 2016, 04:30:53 PM
Hopefully it is only a very small minority of Bernie supporters that actually don't vote for Hilary.

I think Michael Moore made a good point in the piece linked by Tighty.  The majority of Sanders supporters will hold their nose and vote for Hillary in the end - the difference is that they won't be spending their time until then encouraging their family and everyone else to do the same.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on July 26, 2016, 05:07:37 PM
Hopefully it is only a very small minority of Bernie supporters that actually don't vote for Hilary.

I think Michael Moore made a good point in the piece linked by Tighty.  The majority of Sanders supporters will hold their nose and vote for Hillary in the end - the difference is that they won't be spending their time until then encouraging their family and everyone else to do the same.

We'll just have to live in hope, as I think it will be like something from a Tarantino movie if Trump wins.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 26, 2016, 06:48:10 PM
Clinton fund raising email this week


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on July 27, 2016, 01:17:14 AM
Picture of the sticker please :)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Woodsey on July 27, 2016, 01:21:45 AM
Shit that sounds desperate, reckon Trump will win if that's what they are resorting to...


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on July 27, 2016, 08:58:23 PM
Watched the last Trump presser, and if it's possible, I think I'm even dumber for listening to him rattle on for 60 minutes...


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 28, 2016, 09:21:59 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CobX9KJXYAIVxsd.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 28, 2016, 09:23:06 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CoYzZyWUsAImbl7.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 28, 2016, 09:25:33 AM
Donald Trump Has Turned the Republicans Into the Party of Russia

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/07/trump-russia/493298/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Ironside on July 28, 2016, 09:32:35 PM
love this video doing the rounds on facebook

https://www.facebook.com/omgcheckthis/videos/842986365831253/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 30, 2016, 09:25:14 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CojuyTpWEAAwO1G.jpg:large)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 30, 2016, 09:27:32 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CodchnxWcAAbfOM.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RED-DOG on July 30, 2016, 10:57:27 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CodchnxWcAAbfOM.jpg)

Reminds me of a song by Simon and Garfunkel.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on July 31, 2016, 10:39:26 AM
The real reason Trump won't release his tax returns

http://www.dailypublic.com/articles/07292016/donald-trump-star-exemption-and-tax-returns

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cok0LSUWgAABFho.jpg)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cok0NN9W8AYhNY0.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on August 02, 2016, 08:30:08 AM

According to Gallup, Trump's convention was the first in US political history to to make voters LESS likely to back the candidate.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CoyhrDcUkAAohzI.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on August 02, 2016, 01:06:10 PM
I've seen him referred to a fair few times as 'The Donald', which makes me chuckle.

Was it Obama that started that, or one of the media outlets?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on August 02, 2016, 05:06:41 PM
Sounds like something that John Oliver would say

Last Week Tonight has been very good the last couple of weeks, incred episode about the republican convention


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on August 02, 2016, 05:19:15 PM
He's had that nickname a long time. Came from Ivana, when they first got together and her English was still dodgy.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on August 02, 2016, 05:41:17 PM
Comment sections on any videos of Obama/Trump  make for some good lunchtime reading on Facebook :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on August 03, 2016, 09:28:08 AM
Obama says Trump is 'unfit' to be President. But here's why his comments might help Trump: http://specc.ie/2axi9zf


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on August 03, 2016, 02:01:19 PM
I just started listening to the Foreign Policy Editors Roundtable podcast, really interesting view of the race from the viewpoint of the foreign policy 'elites' that Trump derides. The latest episode talks about Trump and his relationship with Putin which I thought was very good and not too dry for a 45 minute talk show.

Highly recommended if anyone wants to check it out

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/fps-editors-roundtable-e.r./id1034003458?mt=2



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Tal on August 06, 2016, 02:38:12 PM
What seems like an age ago, some political fantasists expressed the idea that Trump - who had for so long been a supporter (personally, publicly and financially) of the Clintons - was a tactical plant in the GOP, where he would split the vote and leave a free run in for his pal Hillary.

Since then he has been a noisebag...then a noisebag with niche support...then a noisebag who was surprisingly effective...then one of a number of possible challengers to the favourites...then one of that group...then a radical free thinking voice...then a momentum surfing juggernaut who was forcing his rivals to yield to his populist might...then a juggernaut who had a few mechanical faults...then a juggernaut with wonky steering and with an unhealthy noise out the back end...all the way to a former juggernaut who has caused a trail of destruction through the Republican Party and now seems to have left Hillary a clear run to the White House.

My question for the politicos here: might those fantasist have had a point?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on August 06, 2016, 03:13:55 PM
Like something from Infowars, Tal :D

After a month out there, it wouldn't surprise me if the bookies had it as wrong here, as they did with Brexit, and the wack job actually got in.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on August 09, 2016, 11:53:51 AM
dozens of the nation’s most senior Republican national security officials, many of them former top aides or cabinet members for President George W. Bush, have signed a letter saying they will not vote for Mr. Trump, the Republican nominee.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/08/08/us/politics/national-security-letter-trump.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=1


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on August 09, 2016, 06:41:37 PM
Just seen this on Oddschecker

A few months ago, I highlighted the claims of a genuine longshot for the Presidency. My argument then was that he was a candidate who had not been damaged by the internecine warfare that had brought the party to the impasse it found itself in then. After all, they had done similar before, when they could find nobody among the leading contenders who could command the support of the Republicans in the House of Representatives. Eventually, they found someone who at first said he wasn’t interested but later relented.

They could also pick someone, I argued, who is currently next in line to the Presidency after Joe Biden. Or they could pick someone who had already shown a taste for the White House, running as recently as 2012 for the Vice-Presidency of the United States. In other words, I highlighted the claims of one man who combines all these characteristics. He is the Speaker of the House of Representatives, he is second in line constitutionally to the Presidency, and he was the running-mate of Mitt Romney in the 2012 Presidential election. His name is Paul Ryan, and he was trading at a healthy 500-1 to be the next President of the United States.

To a small stake, those odds looked very tempting. When Donald Trump secured the nomination of the Republican Party for President of the United States, it looked like the bet was lost, which is often the case with 500-1 longshots.

In the past few days, however, there have been some serious rumblings, going beyond the usual murmurs of discontent, about the viability of Mr. Trump as a serious contender for the Presidency, and equally a worry among mainstream Republicans that the alternative possibility, that he actually could be elected, was even worse.

But how likely is it that these rumblings could turn into something that could lead to the current nominee dropping out of the race? One way of estimating this is to assess the likelihood of the Republican Party winning the Presidential election in November, and compare this to the chance of Donald Trump winning the Presidency. A glance at the current Betfair odds separates these two probabilities by about 1.3 per cent. This can be viewed as a rough and ready estimator of the likelihood that a different Republican than Trump wins the election.

To this must be added the chance that Mr. Trump’s replacement loses the election. Currently the chance that the Republicans lose, using the same metric, is 77 per cent, so that is more than three times the likelihood they will win. Multiplying 1.3 per cent by this factor gives a probability of someone other Republican than Donald Trump losing as about 4.3 per cent. So the total likelihood of someone other than Trump winning or losing the election sums to 5.6 per cent.

Taking all variables into account, and adding a dose of personal judgment, I estimate that the chance of Trump being replaced on the ballot paper as Republican candidate is between 4 per cent and 8 per cent. At this stage of the race that replacement would, in my opinion, almost certainly be a respected member of the Republican establishment, untainted by the internal battles, and able to command broad support. I would estimate that Speaker Paul Ryan would be about a two in three chance of being that candidate.

On the basis of these estimates, I estimate that Ryan has about a 4 per chance of being on the ballot. If he is, I think he has about a 40 per cent chance of winning. This means that odds of greater than about 60-1 about Speaker Paul Ryan being elected the next President of the United States are starting to look like value.

At current best bookmaker odds of 66-1 (Bet 365, Ladbrokes), or slightly longer on Betfair, there is in my judgment a sliver of value, to small stakes, especially if you haven’t already taken the previously advised 500-1.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Tal on August 09, 2016, 07:11:13 PM
Backed him at 40/1 in April.

::)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on August 11, 2016, 11:53:49 AM
What bothers US voters about Trump: Bloomberg poll

https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rAjnCYJjgvBw/v0

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CpgUOdHXgAQfwum.jpg)



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on August 18, 2016, 02:02:48 AM
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrYtDZ3_Nz4

Incred :D


Some people have way too much time on their hands, lol.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: booder on August 18, 2016, 10:24:24 AM
Sooooooo good.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on August 21, 2016, 11:17:10 AM
interesting article

One office building is dependent upon the Bank of China as a lender and Goldman Sachs, 2 supposed Trump enemies.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/21/us/politics/donald-trump-debt.html?_r=0


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on August 21, 2016, 12:00:45 PM
National GE:

Clinton 45 (+8)
Trump 37
Johnson 8
Stein 4

2-Way:

Clinton 50 (+10)
Trump 40

End Citizens United Poll


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on August 25, 2016, 10:28:52 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqsJ4ggW8AASGuT.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on August 25, 2016, 11:14:44 AM
Trump and Farage are playing the same dangerous game | Lucia Graves

https://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2016/aug/25/donald-trump-nigel-farage-nationalism-bigotry-ukip?CMP=twt_gu


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on August 30, 2016, 09:16:53 PM
Team Trump

So, Trump has had another shake-up of his top team and has just appointed his third campaign manager. For someone who prides himself on picking good staff, Trump has struggled to establish a settled successful top management of his campaign.

The campaign was originally led by Corey Lewandowski, a thug who publicly assaulted two people during the campaign, including a Trump-supporting female reporter. Trump was also advised during this period by Roger Stone, one of the most infamous dirty-tricks operatives in US politics, beginning with his antics when working for Nixon's re-election. Lewandowski's stated strategy was 'Let Trump Be Trump', which worked spectactularly well throughout the Primaries, but it was felt that a more sophisticated approach was needed for the general election. Also, Lewandowski was seriously unsuccessful at fundraising and campaign finances were dangerously low. Trump had three main problems as the Primaries came to an end - low poll numbers, no ground organization and no money.

So Paul Manafort was added to the team in April this year in an attempt to make the campaign more professional. By June, Ivanka finally persuaded Trump to act decisively and Lewandowski was sacked, with Paul Manafort taking over the campaign. Like Lewandowski and Stone, Manafort has previously been involved in the operations of a succession of Republican Presidents and nominees. He has also worked for many questionable foreign leaders, with his firm being named as one of the top lobbying firms receiving money from human-rights abusing regimes. The list of his clients has to be seen to be believed https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Manafort.

Manafort was successful in improving the financial position of the campaign and Trump got some post-Convention bounce in the polls, though he still made crazy statements and senior strategists continued to turn over at an alarming rate, some only staying with the campaign for two or three weeks. Then, in the first two weeks of August, Trump went off the rails. There were several Trumpesque incidents in succession, the most damaging being the row he got into with the parents of a Muslim American soldier killed in action, which has lost him untold amounts of Republican support. Shortly after this, the campaign manager became the story when Manafort's continued links with Victor Yanukovych started hitting the headlines and it was clear that the campaign was in trouble again.

Trump acted remarkably quickly this time. Kellyanne Conway had joined the team as an advisor during the Manafort period and she has now been promoted to Campaign Manager, with Manafort leaving. Steve Bannon, head of right-wing anti-establishment news website Breitbart, has been appointed CEO of the campaign. Breitbart has strongly supported Trump throughout, even to the extent of siding with the campaign against its own reporter when she was assaulted on camera by Lewandowski. Bannon, described by Bloomberg last year as "America's most dangerous political operative" has an unpleasant history in many aspects, including claims of sexual harassment and domestic violence.
(https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2015-steve-bannon/img/bannon-businessweek-cover.jpg)

Even more extraordinarily, Roger Ailes is now coaching Trump for the upcoming debates. As CEO of Fox News for the last twenty years, Ailes was one of the most powerful (and hated) people in broadcasting, the overlord of all the propaganda and distortions, boss of broadcasting stars like Bill O'Reilly, Megan Kelly, Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity and many others. A few weeks ago, he was accused of sexual harassment (by over twenty women, including Kelly) and quickly dismissed by the Murdochs, instantly becoming persona-non-grata and, at 76, his career apparently over. Two weeks later, unbelievably, he was on Trump's team.

One of the most important skills of a President is the ability to pick good staff. Trump's top team through its various iterations (Lewandowski, Stone, Manafort, Bannon, Ailes) has been a proper rogues gallery. In fairness, some of them are extremely capable. Ailes, in particular, worked wonders at Fox and both Bannon and Manafort have been extraordinarily successful at what they do. However, it is also fair to say that Conway seems to be the only one who isn't a nasty piece of work. These are the type of people that Trump surrounds himself with and who will be influencing Presidential policy if he wins.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on August 30, 2016, 11:34:12 PM
Going to be interesting viewing when they start the debates :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on August 31, 2016, 10:46:13 AM
Going to be interesting viewing when they start the debates :D


Genuinely gonna stop up for all of them. Clinton knows her stuff, Trump knows how to use blunt force trauma. IMO Trump will 'win' the debate (not debate better, but win with the better ad hominem attacks).


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on August 31, 2016, 11:16:01 AM
PPP finds 31% of Trump supporters want a wall in the middle of the Atlantic

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrIxoUOWcAAAg7k.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on August 31, 2016, 01:06:12 PM
How many televised debates are we going to get?

Thanks for the updates guys, great stuff


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on August 31, 2016, 01:20:37 PM
How many televised debates are we going to get?

Thanks for the updates guys, great stuff

Last time I think there were three, plus one VP debate.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on August 31, 2016, 01:46:16 PM
How many televised debates are we going to get?

Thanks for the updates guys, great stuff

Last time I think there were three, plus one VP debate.

Same again I believe this time, end of September I think for first un.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on August 31, 2016, 02:17:45 PM
Going to be interesting viewing when they start the debates :D


Genuinely gonna stop up for all of them. Clinton knows her stuff, Trump knows how to use blunt force trauma. IMO Trump will 'win' the debate (not debate better, but win with the better ad hominem attacks).

Sam Harris was on Rogan a couple months back, and his thoughts on it were very good.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdDo1A7EsyM

Never seen him before, but he really is good, and obviously super smart.

He has a podcast, so going to go through all his now.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on August 31, 2016, 03:33:02 PM
Today is going to be one of the most important dates so far. Trump is making a major speech tonight on immigration, and all the signs are that he is about to go back on his most of his previous statements and come in line with standard Republican policy (and Democrat practice). He is about to become the no-change candidate. Even more, his new position includes allowing people who owe back-taxes to make good and stay; in other words, the amnesty that he crucified Bush and Rubio for suggesting.

Kellyanne Conway and Steve Bannon took up their positions on 17 August and have had a dramatic impact on the campaign. Since the day they took over, Trump has been a different person, far more disciplined, using autocues and sticking to the script. He has apologised for any pain he caused with his previous comments. It didn't come across as sincere, but he did it.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7Yzc8HHB3c

He made a belated pitch for previously-ignored Black votes. It started crudely - "You're living in poverty, your schools are no good, you have no jobs........what the hell do you have to lose?", but has improved since.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-jasg-_E5M

The most significant change, though, has been on immigration. The official line is that he has "softened" his position but, in fact, his new stance fundamentally contradicts all his previous rhetoric on the subject. His new opinion is that illegal immigrants who have committed crimes should be deported, but that those who have lived in the US for years, without breaking the law, should be allowed to stay. In other words, no different from Bush, Romney, Obama, etc. We'll see what detail tonight's speech brings, but it seems clear that the softer position is essential for Trump to have any chance of winning.

It runs the real risk, though, of alienating his previous supporters. He now has the classic problem of balancing the pitch between holding on to the hardliners in his own party and attracting the moderates in his own party, the independents and the moderate supporters of the other party. This is the standard conundrum faced by all nominees, who are forced by the system to move right or left to secure the nomination and then back to the centre for the general election. It may be cynical, but you can't become President unless you compromise your principles (we haven't heard much from Hillary about inequality since the Convention).

But Trump was supposed to be different. Many of his supporters were won over by his assertions that he was the one who wouldn't do this kind of thing. Not only may they struggle with softer policies, they may be stung by his change of approach. There is a danger that his credibility will be destroyed and he will lose on both sides. He has had pushback already from some conservatives. One of his most vociferous media supporters, Ann Coulter had a book released last week In Trump We Trust, which includes an assertion that Trump could change any policy and his believers would come along, so long as he doesn't change his position on immigration.

But they don't have an option other than taking this risk - the polls tell us that the campaign was heading for a landslide defeat otherwise. One thing that is clear is that he now has a really good management team in place. By convincing him to change, Bannon and Conway have, at least, given him a chance of winning when there seemed to be no possibility before.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on August 31, 2016, 03:56:50 PM
Sarah Palin: “If Mr Trump were to go down a path of wishy-washy positions taken on things that the core foundation of his support has so appreciated, and that is respecting our Constitution and respecting law and order in America, then yeah, there would be massive disappointment. Parts of that message we heard in the last week are clearly not consistent with the stringent position and message that supporters have received all along.”


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on August 31, 2016, 09:45:28 PM
Any chance that if he starts backpedaling and losing public support then the republican establishment can get the knives out and maybe unseat him as the nominee?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 01, 2016, 12:56:53 AM
Any chance that if he starts backpedaling and losing public support then the republican establishment can get the knives out and maybe unseat him as the nominee?

Wouldn't they love that? Their main concern isn't losing the Presidency - they are expecting that (and many of them wanting it). They are more worried that a lot of Republican voters will stay home and the coattails effect will be diminished. There is a serious danger that they will suffer in the elections for Senators, Representatives and Governors, extending down to the races for Mayors, Sheriffs and so on. Reverse coattails is more likely, ie voters who turn out in large numbers to support marquee names like McCain and Rubio may give Trump a vote while they are there. The Republican establishment would love to insert almost anyone except Cruz instead of Trump.

Seemingly, it is a possibility. The later it goes, the harder it gets as various States' cutoff dates pass, but it seems there would still be ways around it. I read something earlier where they were discussing who could replace him. There was a view that it would be easiest if Mike Pence were to step up, already being on the ticket, which might get around some of the regs, but that was discounted. It could be anyone, but would probably be someone who ran and went deep, most likely Cruz or Kasich. Having said that, though possible, it is very unlikely to happen.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: muckthenuts on September 01, 2016, 01:34:29 AM
Trump's backpedalling doesn't seem like a great tactic to me! I've always felt he was best off maintaining his hardline approach and hope Americans would spring a surprise come election day, similar to how the UK did with Brexit. Given the unforgettable tosh he came out with during the primaries no matter what he does he's surely not going to pick up many votes from the center. I'm no Trump supporter but his very cordial behaviour with the Mexican president today was a far cry from what his followers thought they would be getting if they got Trump in charge.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Ledders on September 01, 2016, 12:59:11 PM
lol this wall stuff is incred


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 01, 2016, 05:27:13 PM
So, where does he stand? The speech was indisputably hard-line, the emphasis being on securing the border and rounding up illegals who have committed crimes.

A week ago, Trump used the words 'softening' and 'humane' and posed the question of what should happen with long-term illegals who are otherwise upstanding:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jJ86oY1U34

He didn't address that question at all last night, so his position on it remains unclarified though, by raising the question, he is inviting us to assume he will take a softer line with them.

This speech was delayed for a week amid reports that his team was wrestling with the decision of how it should be pitched. It seems reminiscent of Boris on Brexit, with the position being based on what is thought will work best with voters, rather than principles that the candidate believes in.

In the end, the decision seems to have been to maintain the hard-line stance as much as possible, but with some possible softening still to come. The speech was plenty tough enough to keep the mob on board, without closing off options that might be more attractive to independents or moderate Republicans.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 01, 2016, 09:47:00 PM
We are likely to see the FBI releasing emails of Hillary's in the run-up to the election (and after). How damaging they are isn't known though some will, no doubt, pick up on any potentially-embarrassing aspects while others will say that the FBI should have tried for a prosecution.

In the meantime, WikiLeaks has documents relating to Hillary Clinton, which it is going to release in an "October Surprise". Based on Assange's lack of excitement, there may not be anything too detrimental.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFj6PScVwro


Later in the interview, Kelly asked Assange why he hasn't released anything on Trump. "If we have good information on Trump, we publish that........... It's really hard for us to release anything worse that what comes out of Donald Trump's mouth every second day".



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on September 01, 2016, 10:37:50 PM
I think I know the 'undisclosed location' that he's speaking to them from :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 02, 2016, 03:39:33 AM
Presidential Debates Schedule

First presidential debate (September 26, 2016, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY)
The debate will be divided into six time segments of approximately 15 minutes each on major topics to be selected by the moderator and announced at least one week before the debate.

The moderator will open each segment with a question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond. Candidates will then have an opportunity to respond to each other. The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a deeper discussion of the topic.

Vice presidential debate (October 4, 2016, Longwood University, Farmville, VA)
The debate will be divided into nine time segments of approximately 10 minutes each. The moderator will ask an opening question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond. The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a deeper discussion of the topic.

Second presidential debate (October 9, 2016, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO)
The second presidential debate will take the form of a town meeting, in which half of the questions will be posed directly by citizen participants and the other half will be posed by the moderator based on topics of broad public interest as reflected in social media and other sources. The candidates will have two minutes to respond and there will be an additional minute for the moderator to facilitate further discussion. The town meeting participants will be uncommitted voters selected by the Gallup Organization.

Third presidential debate (October 19, 2016, University of Nevada-Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV)
The format for the debate will be identical to the first presidential debate.

http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=2016debates


Unlike the party debates, which were run and broadcast by individual TV companies, the Presidential debates are run by the Commission on Presidential Debates and will be shown live on all major networks. Candidates need to be polling at 15% to be invited, so the Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein, stuck on 9% and 4%, ain't gonna make it. One of the first and third is likely to focus on foreign affairs and the other on domestic policy. Each debate will have a single moderator and will run from 9-10.30pm Eastern Time (2-3.30am in the UK).


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 02, 2016, 03:51:32 AM
Before all that, Clinton and Trump have agreed to take part in a “commander-in-chief forum” devoted to national security, military affairs and veterans issues.

They will appear on the same stage, but not at the same time, next week (7 Sept) in New York at an event sponsored by the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America and broadcast live on NBC and MSNBC.

I would think it unlikely there would be any more forums, but I have been wrong before in this election.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 02, 2016, 04:55:28 AM
Cheers for all your work here, MintTrav.

Been a hugely informative and entertaining read.

If they ever get another Blonde Bash sorted, dinner is on me.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 02, 2016, 10:45:27 AM
Just hours after his hard-hitting speech, Trump was again pushing the 'softening' line.

"I want to get the gang members out, the drug peddlers out, I want to get the drug dealers out. We’ve got a lot of people in this country that you can’t have, and those people we’ll get out. And then we’re going to make a decision at a later date once everything is stabilized. I think you’re going to see there’s really quite a bit of softening."

They are clearly trying to have it both ways, branding the same product differently to two distinct market segments. They seem to be having difficulty summarising the position in a snappy way, though, so Trump is having to struggle through these long-winded contortions. It would benefit them hugely if they could find some neat catch-phrases to wrap up the concept. Maybe they should employ Laura Ingraham, who seems to have summarised his position more succinctly "If you’re arrested for a crime, you can’t stay in the country. But the idea that you’re gonna just run around with vans and throw fruit-pickers into the back of the vans, that’s not gonna happen."


http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/trump-will-soften-on-immigration-227636


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 02, 2016, 11:34:47 AM
Good old Donald. He has made the Daily Fascist grovel. I won't hear another word against him.


"Melania Trump is suing a British newspaper and a US blogger for $150m (£114m) over allegations she was a sex worker in the 1990s, her lawyer says..........."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-37253025

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3769798/Melania-Trump-retraction.html


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on September 02, 2016, 05:49:30 PM
Just watched the first episode of 'Race To The White House' on Netflix which was about the Bush Snr vs Dukakis election in 1988

House of Cards really doesn't seem like that much of a dramatisation!


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on September 04, 2016, 09:55:47 AM
its getting closer again

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrcRHEDWIAAWLww.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on September 08, 2016, 10:29:14 AM
interesting read

The Gift of Clinton http://nyti.ms/2cnzqgW   "joyless slog"


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on September 08, 2016, 02:30:47 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-08/matt-lauer-fields-storm-criticism-after-vet-tells-hillary-“i-would-have-been-impriso (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-08/matt-lauer-fields-storm-criticism-after-vet-tells-hillary-“i-would-have-been-impriso)

Hillary's hit list just got longer


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on September 08, 2016, 05:36:01 PM
Anyone who wants to register their dislike of the two main candidates by voting for Gary Johnson can be assured that US foreign policy would be secure in his hands.

Interviewer: 'If elected, what would you do about Aleppo?'

Johnson 'And what is Aleppo?'

http://digg.com/2016/gary-johnson-aleppo-syria-gaffe-morning-joe


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on September 09, 2016, 10:01:03 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cr1mjtxWcAA82bJ.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 09, 2016, 10:04:23 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cr1mjtxWcAA82bJ.jpg)

Trump could have probably asked "what the hell is Washington?" and everyone forgets about it by bedtime.

That's not dissing Trump btw, gotta give him props for his teflon-ness.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on September 10, 2016, 11:51:42 PM
https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/774680931407917056/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw (https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/774680931407917056/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on September 11, 2016, 12:23:53 AM
https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/774680931407917056/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw (https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/774680931407917056/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)

The deplorables Hillary was talking about will never vote for her anyway.

So no harm done.

As my dad always used to say "the truth always hurts"


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: muckthenuts on September 11, 2016, 01:15:33 AM
https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/774680931407917056/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw (https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/774680931407917056/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)

The deplorables Hillary was talking about will never vote for her anyway.

So no harm done.

As my dad always used to say "the truth always hurts"

+1, what she said was true lol


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 11, 2016, 09:07:20 AM
The last few weeks Hillary has been reduced to doing a lot of name calling and ad hom attacks, which I have no doubt is precisely what Trump wants. By the time the debates roll around it's going to be like an episode of Jersey Shore, which bodes well for Trump IMO. There is a massive political knowledge gap between the two which Hillary could/should be using to show how unqualified he is, but instead she s reduced to calling him a Nazi.

Reminds me of the first superfight between Roberto Duran and Sugar Ray Leonard. Leonard was by miles the superior boxer but Duran made it personal and drew him into a streetfight and beat him.


(http://www.akinalabi.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/akin-alabi-blog-wrestle-with-pigs.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on September 11, 2016, 11:04:04 AM
The deplorables Hillary was talking about will never vote for her anyway.

Just like the majority of Americans who want to work, people who put an effort into life.

"The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those whom speak it."


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Doobs on September 11, 2016, 01:07:14 PM
The deplorables Hillary was talking about will never vote for her anyway.

Just like the majority of Americans who want to work, people who put an effort into life.

"The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those whom speak it."

I don't get it, surely that statement about the truth must even jar with trump supporters?  Not claiming Hillary is the bastion of truth here, just that Trump clearly isn't. 


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on September 11, 2016, 10:02:41 PM
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11-EAzsGxgQ

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/150264994381/the-race-for-president-is-probably-over (http://blog.dilbert.com/post/150264994381/the-race-for-president-is-probably-over)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on September 11, 2016, 11:54:37 PM
Woman faints on hot day = she is incapable of being President?

What colour is the sky in the strange world Trumpkins live on?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on September 12, 2016, 12:06:03 AM
In what world is 80deg F so hot it causes you to faint? Get real.

Anyways, she's now been diagnosed with.....pneumonia.

No wait, she was diagnosed with pneumonia on Friday.

But wait, the Clinton campaign announced a few hours after her 'faint' today that she'd been rushed to hospital her daughters apartment and that after a few minutes rest she was now feeling absolutely fine.

But she now still definitely does have pneumonia. Which is pretty debilitating as anyone who has/ has known someone who's been unfortunate enough to pick it up will testify.

Hillary's epitaph will no doubt read:
"See - I told you there was NOTHING wrong with me!"


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 12, 2016, 01:41:23 AM
Feel the Bern...


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on September 12, 2016, 03:28:28 AM
@SarahWoodwriter 4h4 hours ago

"Hillary got overheated. I guess I need to vote for the white supremacist." - no one ever


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DungBeetle on September 12, 2016, 08:20:19 AM
This has similarities with our EU referendum in that Trump supporters aren't going to care that an entrenched politician calls them racist/bigoted because they don't agree with their views.  If anything it will mobilise them more to get the vote out and stick it in their eye.

Disclaimer - I wouldn't vote to Trump but I think the approach of the Democrats and their supporters is probably counterproductive in terms of winning.  Smug superiority doesn't win elections.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 12, 2016, 09:10:32 AM
@SarahWoodwriter 4h4 hours ago

"Hillary got overheated. I guess I need to vote for the white supremacist." - no one ever


She has pneumonia

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37332106

If she really has  pneumonia then that makes this a bit questionable

(https://i.redditmedia.com/e-njGjELYUJPfsuR5imziFeYe5b-1g5NoAWO9g6Xchw.png?w=598&s=859da0e964893397a1338d6b4bb31f4a)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 12, 2016, 09:18:03 AM
This has similarities with our EU referendum in that Trump supporters aren't going to care that an entrenched politician calls them racist/bigoted because they don't agree with their views.  If anything it will mobilise them more to get the vote out and stick it in their eye.

Disclaimer - I wouldn't vote to Trump but I think the approach of the Democrats and their supporters is probably counterproductive in terms of winning.  Smug superiority doesn't win elections.

Completely agree with this, Trump and Brexit are so similar. I'd never vote for Trump or Brexit, but the sneering, elitism and smugness of the opposite sides have been ugly. "Let's just called old and/or working class people studid and racist until they shame vote for us."

I was shocked at the Brexit result, I'm pretty certain Trump will win by a Regan-esque landslide.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on September 12, 2016, 02:36:20 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsJvuh2WYAAFYmw.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: doubleup on September 12, 2016, 02:44:19 PM
@SarahWoodwriter 4h4 hours ago

"Hillary got overheated. I guess I need to vote for the white supremacist." - no one ever


She has pneumonia

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37332106

If she really has  pneumonia then that makes this a bit questionable

(https://i.redditmedia.com/e-njGjELYUJPfsuR5imziFeYe5b-1g5NoAWO9g6Xchw.png?w=598&s=859da0e964893397a1338d6b4bb31f4a)

Does she have a specific type of "contagious pneumonia" - I just thought she had pneumonia that is caused by bacteria and is not particularly contagious.  But don't let that stop your indignation.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 12, 2016, 03:08:44 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsJvuh2WYAAFYmw.jpg)

There is no way Trump didn't write that last line. I also refuse to believe he is healthier than Obama was when he was elected.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 12, 2016, 03:09:25 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsJvuh2WYAAFYmw.jpg)

There is no way Trump didn't write that last line. I also refuse to believe he is healthier than Obama was when he was elected.

Actually Regan and both Bushes probably too, well, pretty much everyone previous.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 12, 2016, 03:16:17 PM
@SarahWoodwriter 4h4 hours ago

"Hillary got overheated. I guess I need to vote for the white supremacist." - no one ever


She has pneumonia

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37332106

If she really has  pneumonia then that makes this a bit questionable

(https://i.redditmedia.com/e-njGjELYUJPfsuR5imziFeYe5b-1g5NoAWO9g6Xchw.png?w=598&s=859da0e964893397a1338d6b4bb31f4a)

Does she have a specific type of "contagious pneumonia" - I just thought she had pneumonia that is caused by bacteria and is not particularly contagious.  But don't let that stop your indignation.



I'll defer to your superior knowledge on pneumonia then as I assumed it was contagious and the only other thing I know is children and old people are most vulnerable to it, I was just taking the tweet on face value. Thanks for letting me know I wrote the post in an indignant tone because I didn't know I had.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on September 12, 2016, 03:17:34 PM
Given that I doubt Dr Bornstein has performed medical examinations of every US President, I love the use of the word 'unequivocally'.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RED-DOG on September 12, 2016, 03:23:13 PM
@SarahWoodwriter 4h4 hours ago

"Hillary got overheated. I guess I need to vote for the white supremacist." - no one ever


She has pneumonia

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37332106

If she really has  pneumonia then that makes this a bit questionable

(https://i.redditmedia.com/e-njGjELYUJPfsuR5imziFeYe5b-1g5NoAWO9g6Xchw.png?w=598&s=859da0e964893397a1338d6b4bb31f4a)

Does she have a specific type of "contagious pneumonia" - I just thought she had pneumonia that is caused by bacteria and is not particularly contagious.  But don't let that stop your indignation.



I'll defer to your superior knowledge on pneumonia then as I assumed it was contagious and the only other thing I know is children and old people are most vulnerable to it, I was just taking the tweet on face value. Thanks for letting me know I wrote the post in an indignant tone because I didn't know I had.


Is it just me, or can anyone else see a great nickname for tikay in that last paragraph?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: doubleup on September 12, 2016, 03:28:45 PM
@SarahWoodwriter 4h4 hours ago

"Hillary got overheated. I guess I need to vote for the white supremacist." - no one ever


She has pneumonia

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37332106

If she really has  pneumonia then that makes this a bit questionable

(https://i.redditmedia.com/e-njGjELYUJPfsuR5imziFeYe5b-1g5NoAWO9g6Xchw.png?w=598&s=859da0e964893397a1338d6b4bb31f4a)

Does she have a specific type of "contagious pneumonia" - I just thought she had pneumonia that is caused by bacteria and is not particularly contagious.  But don't let that stop your indignation.



I'll defer to your superior knowledge on pneumonia then as I assumed it was contagious and the only other thing I know is children and old people are most vulnerable to it, I was just taking the tweet on face value. Thanks for letting me know I wrote the post in an indignant tone because I didn't know I had.


If she really has  pneumonia then that makes this a bit questionable

What is that meant to signify other than indignation?

I was just taking the tweet on face value

You are a journalist, you should know not to take things at face value.

I don't have a superior knowledge, just 50 years plus of life never hearing about an outbreak of "contagious pneumonia".



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 12, 2016, 03:33:48 PM
Quote
If she really has  pneumonia then that makes this a bit questionable

What is that meant to signify other than indignation?

Indignation means anger at unfair treatment. I wrote 'that makes this a bit questionable' which is mild skepticism at best.

Quote
I was just taking the tweet on face value

You are a journalist, you should know not to take things at face value.

I'm not a journalist, I write about poker. Even if I considered myself a journalist I don't think that particularly means I should use the same standard of scrutiny when I am shooting the shit on a fun forum about a topic unrelated to what I write about. Do you think I should be getting statements from Jeremy Hunt the next time I buy some aspirin?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 12, 2016, 03:35:41 PM
There are doctors who give me more confidence than Dr Bornstein.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVrOGkgaco4


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 12, 2016, 03:38:00 PM
There are doctors who give me more confidence than Dr Bornstein.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVrOGkgaco4

(http://i.imgur.com/qrupWrK.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on September 12, 2016, 03:49:53 PM
There are doctors who give me more confidence than Dr Bornstein.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVrOGkgaco4

(http://i.imgur.com/qrupWrK.jpg)

I thought of the exactly the same Simpson's character, but a different line.

"You've tried the best, now try the rest!"


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on September 12, 2016, 03:52:02 PM
So, let's suppose Hillary pulls out of the election.

What happens next?

What is the final date for Dems to name their candidate on the ballot papers?

How d they go about choosing a replacement candidate?

I see both Biden and Sanders are similarly priced by the books.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 12, 2016, 03:57:44 PM
There are doctors who give me more confidence than Dr Bornstein.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVrOGkgaco4

(http://i.imgur.com/qrupWrK.jpg)

I thought of the exactly the same Simpson's character, but a different line.

"You've tried the best, now try the rest!"


YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgqKv9rkAE0


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 12, 2016, 04:01:14 PM
So, let's suppose Hillary pulls out of the election.

What happens next?

What is the final date for Dems to name their candidate on the ballot papers?

How d they go about choosing a replacement candidate?

I see both Biden and Sanders are similarly priced by the books.

All the pundits seem to be saying Biden would be the guy, even though Sanders was as popular as he was. At this stage Hillary has to pull out, she can't be hoisted out by the party.

I don't see it happening as we are very late in the day, having said that might be worth a cheeky punt on Biden because all he has to do is be the #NeverTrump guy while at the same time getting back all the #NeverHillary crowd.

Edit: Didn't realise how much Biden & Sanders odds have come down, they were like 40-60/1 yesterday.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 12, 2016, 04:08:27 PM
Too much glee on right-wing sites.

They should be careful what they wish for. Clinton is heading for a convincing win. If Biden were to take over, it would become one of the biggest thrashings in history, with all the effects that has on the down-ticket candidates.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: redsimon on September 12, 2016, 04:50:58 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsJvuh2WYAAFYmw.jpg)
Fully fit?  Apart from when he avoided the Military Draft?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Doobs on September 12, 2016, 05:21:32 PM
@SarahWoodwriter 4h4 hours ago

"Hillary got overheated. I guess I need to vote for the white supremacist." - no one ever


She has pneumonia

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37332106

If she really has  pneumonia then that makes this a bit questionable

(https://i.redditmedia.com/e-njGjELYUJPfsuR5imziFeYe5b-1g5NoAWO9g6Xchw.png?w=598&s=859da0e964893397a1338d6b4bb31f4a)

Does she have a specific type of "contagious pneumonia" - I just thought she had pneumonia that is caused by bacteria and is not particularly contagious.  But don't let that stop your indignation.



I'll defer to your superior knowledge on pneumonia then as I assumed it was contagious and the only other thing I know is children and old people are most vulnerable to it, I was just taking the tweet on face value. Thanks for letting me know I wrote the post in an indignant tone because I didn't know I had.

Why would you take a tweet at face value?  Twitter has more than its fair share of raving lunatics.  I looked at that blokes' twitter feed this morning before double up posted and it was enough to make me glad I really don't spend much time there.  And it isn't just right leaning political twitterers, the left leaning ones are just as bad.  I wouldn't ever take anything in the daily mail at face value, and pretty much everybody who spouts politics on twitter is more biassed.

Hillary is a bit sick and fainted; penemonia isn't particularly contagious or serious most of the time; the girl wanted a hug; there is no story here with this girl.     

And fwiw I think you are right about Hillary needs to stop sinking to Trump's level, but did she really call him a nazi?  (I don't know, but it seems unlikely).   


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Doobs on September 12, 2016, 05:42:29 PM
Wrong thread oops


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 12, 2016, 05:43:35 PM
@SarahWoodwriter 4h4 hours ago

"Hillary got overheated. I guess I need to vote for the white supremacist." - no one ever


She has pneumonia

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37332106

If she really has  pneumonia then that makes this a bit questionable

(https://i.redditmedia.com/e-njGjELYUJPfsuR5imziFeYe5b-1g5NoAWO9g6Xchw.png?w=598&s=859da0e964893397a1338d6b4bb31f4a)

Does she have a specific type of "contagious pneumonia" - I just thought she had pneumonia that is caused by bacteria and is not particularly contagious.  But don't let that stop your indignation.



I'll defer to your superior knowledge on pneumonia then as I assumed it was contagious and the only other thing I know is children and old people are most vulnerable to it, I was just taking the tweet on face value. Thanks for letting me know I wrote the post in an indignant tone because I didn't know I had.

Why would you take a tweet at face value?  Twitter has more than its fair share of raving lunatics.  I looked at that blokes' twitter feed this morning before double up posted and it was enough to make me glad I really don't spend much time there.  And it isn't just right leaning political twitterers, the left leaning ones are just as bad.  I wouldn't ever take anything in the daily mail at face value, and pretty much everybody who spouts politics on twitter is more biassed.

Hillary is a bit sick and fainted; penemonia isn't particularly contagious or serious most of the time; the girl wanted a hug; there is no story here with this girl.     

And fwiw I think you are right about Hillary needs to stop sinking to Trump's level, but did she really call him a nazi?  (I don't know, but it seems unlikely).   

I took it at face value because until about an hour ago I have gone the last 37 years ago thinking that pneumonia was contagious, especially with elderly people and children, so I saw the tweet and it checked out as common sense in my pneumonia-not-knowing-much-head.

I'm not sure Clinton has used the word Nazi that's just my shorthand for racist but she has frequently used the KKK in reference to him including in an advert and in a speech last week:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/clinton-ad-kkk-trump-227404

Which is ironic considering her admitted mentor is former KKK member Robert Byrd (I dont think either candidates are even closely supportive of the KKK but you'd think she'd pick her battles there).


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on September 13, 2016, 12:12:26 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsNwZA6XEAA1zEb.jpg)

https://www.the-pool.com/news-views/politics/2016/37/gaby-hinsliff-on-hillary-clinton-illness-older-women-politicians?utm_source=Today+in+3&utm_campaign=592cbc08de-Today_in_3_September_139_12_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0522b4f78a-592cbc08de-43474809&mc_cid=592cbc08de&mc_eid=e7dbdcb938


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on September 14, 2016, 09:50:33 AM
One of Hillary Clinton's former protection officers on her rages

http://ijr.com/opinion/2016/09/260018-protected-hillary-clinton-secret-service-heres-noticed-fainting-video/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsOtqVSWEAAGbjr.jpg)



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 14, 2016, 09:35:38 PM
Leaked email from Colin Powell

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsVCsztXgAAwOAl.jpg:large)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 15, 2016, 04:19:14 AM
I saw there was something about Trump in there, too?

Or was it a separate e-mail?


Whenever I see anything about Trump, I snap think of Sam Harris' last podcast with Rogan.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9FfRFEOzPM



Can't wait for these debates, lol.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 15, 2016, 09:04:53 AM
Sam Harris did another pretty epic takedown of Trump on his own podcast yesterday

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvpAxavwHuw


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on September 15, 2016, 11:29:54 AM
Hillary health letter that was released yesterday

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsV8ahrXEAIuml7.jpg)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsV8ahqXEAAonRg.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on September 15, 2016, 11:39:51 AM
MintTrav

this election is getting closer isn't it? whats your feel for recent polls and direction of travel?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RED-DOG on September 15, 2016, 01:07:49 PM
Sam Harris did another pretty epic takedown of Trump on his own podcast yesterday

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvpAxavwHuw


I thought that was excellent. Off to google Sam Harris.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Graham C on September 15, 2016, 01:18:48 PM
Colin Powell really uses a gmail account?  Why not I guess.

I'm surprised that these high level people say things like this in emails. I would have thought they'd be for conversations in person only.  Writing anything down in this day and age is bonkers.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RED-DOG on September 15, 2016, 01:35:35 PM
Writing anything down in this day and age is bonkers.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on September 15, 2016, 01:50:32 PM
BREAKING: Virtual tie in race for the presidency, @cbsnews/@nytimes  poll shows http://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-locked-in-tight-race-nationally-cbsnyt-poll/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 15, 2016, 03:20:33 PM
Sam Harris did another pretty epic takedown of Trump on his own podcast yesterday

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvpAxavwHuw


I thought that was excellent. Off to google Sam Harris.

Sam Harris is very, very good.

I've just gotten the other 3 podcasts he has done with Rogan, and then I'm going to start on his.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMKOV2zA9Wc

Nothing to do with Trump, but thought this was a very interesting listen, too.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 15, 2016, 03:29:04 PM

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMKOV2zA9Wc

Nothing to do with Trump, but thought this was a very interesting listen, too.

Yeah that might be his best recent one for sure (Big fanboy here too).

He did a really interesting one about altruism recently too

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxStuUxaZxQ

My personal favourite if you are into his stuff on Jihad/theocracy/politics is this one

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAmE1cNB9WI


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on September 15, 2016, 03:31:44 PM
http://www.vdare.com/articles/ann-coulter-could-hillary-tell-us-what-percentage-of-muslims-are-deplorable (http://www.vdare.com/articles/ann-coulter-could-hillary-tell-us-what-percentage-of-muslims-are-deplorable)

"But as long as liberals are such perfect thermometers of deplorableness, could they tell us how many Muslims are “deplorable”— specifically, what percentage are “sexist” or “homophobic“?"


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 15, 2016, 03:49:54 PM

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMKOV2zA9Wc

Nothing to do with Trump, but thought this was a very interesting listen, too.

Yeah that might be his best recent one for sure (Big fanboy here too).

He did a really interesting one about altruism recently too

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxStuUxaZxQ

My personal favourite if you are into his stuff on Jihad/theocracy/politics is this one

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAmE1cNB9WI

Should keep me busy over the weekend :D

I just end up going down massive rabbitholes, whenever I start watching anything with Sam Harris, or Rogan.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 15, 2016, 03:57:49 PM
http://www.vdare.com/articles/ann-coulter-could-hillary-tell-us-what-percentage-of-muslims-are-deplorable (http://www.vdare.com/articles/ann-coulter-could-hillary-tell-us-what-percentage-of-muslims-are-deplorable)

"But as long as liberals are such perfect thermometers of deplorableness, could they tell us how many Muslims are “deplorable”— specifically, what percentage are “sexist” or “homophobic“?"

Ann Coulter is the definition of deplorable, and unless I'm mistaken, even Trump doesn't like her.

She was invited to be part of Rob Lowe's 'Roast', and this is a comedy central thing, not another sextape... Tony Hinchcliffe is one of the writers, and he said that she was a pita to deal with.

Didn't want any help, changed all the stuff they wrote for her, and basically said I'm going to do my own thing. Well, you can imagine how that worked out for her :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 15, 2016, 04:17:14 PM
http://www.vdare.com/articles/ann-coulter-could-hillary-tell-us-what-percentage-of-muslims-are-deplorable (http://www.vdare.com/articles/ann-coulter-could-hillary-tell-us-what-percentage-of-muslims-are-deplorable)

"But as long as liberals are such perfect thermometers of deplorableness, could they tell us how many Muslims are “deplorable”— specifically, what percentage are “sexist” or “homophobic“?"

Ann Coulter is the definition of deplorable, and unless I'm mistaken, even Trump doesn't like her.

She was invited to be part of Rob Lowe's 'Roast', and this is a comedy central thing, not another sextape... Tony Hinchcliffe is one of the writers, and he said that she was a pita to deal with.

Didn't want any help, changed all the stuff they wrote for her, and basically said I'm going to do my own thing. Well, you can imagine how that worked out for her :D


Yep, if you're reduced to quoting Ann Coulter, you ain't winning the debate. There are more credible people you could pick who agree with your view. Had to laugh when Trump holed her below the waterline by rowing back on some of the key policies she based her book In Trump We Trust on, and he did it on the very day of the book launch. Almost felt sorry for her (but didn't, obv).


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on September 15, 2016, 04:19:46 PM
Yeah saw bits of the roast. She might be a bit of a tit, but she's imo correct in what she has written in the above piece.

Even though I do not agree with some things Sam believes ( ;whistle; ), I do still enjoy listening to what he has to say. I think my fav interview of him is the following:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQqxlzHJrU0


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 15, 2016, 04:20:31 PM
I agree about Ann Coulter, but......

What were your thoughts on the article posted and the points she made?

Sorry, huge pet peeve of mine, whether it's a monster like Ann Coulter or a legend like Sam Harris (IMO of course) I can't stand it when the point they make is dismissed simply because of who they are. That's not debate, that's what the politicians do.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 15, 2016, 04:21:45 PM
Yeah saw bits of the roast. She might be a bit of a tit, but she's imo correct in what she has written in the above piece.

Even though I do not agree with some things Sam believes ( ;whistle; ), I do still enjoy listening to what he has to say. I think my fav interview of him is the following:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQqxlzHJrU0

@Marky - if you want another Rabbit Hole the Rubin Report is really good, one of the few interviewers who actually gets people he disagrees with on his show and treats them with civility.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on September 15, 2016, 04:29:26 PM
Yep, if you're reduced to quoting Ann Coulter, you ain't winning the debate.

I don't post here to win a debate. I do not believe there is a debate to be had.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 15, 2016, 04:57:17 PM
I agree about Ann Coulter, but......

What were your thoughts on the article posted and the points she made?

Sorry, huge pet peeve of mine, whether it's a monster like Ann Coulter or a legend like Sam Harris (IMO of course) I can't stand it when the point they make is dismissed simply because of who they are. That's not debate, that's what the politicians do.

Pretty much junk. There's very little there to respond to. I agree there are liberals who make sure their own lifestyle isn't affected by their liberal policies (though that doesn't invalidate those policies) and the points about Duke, Sharpton, etc are probably true. I'm also sure that Trump himself is not racist. Apart from that, there were words, but nothing substantial worth rebutting.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 15, 2016, 05:23:10 PM
Yeah saw bits of the roast. She might be a bit of a tit, but she's imo correct in what she has written in the above piece.

Even though I do not agree with some things Sam believes ( ;whistle; ), I do still enjoy listening to what he has to say. I think my fav interview of him is the following:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQqxlzHJrU0

A lot of the stuff I've read by her just gave me the impression that she must be Katie Hopkins long lost twin.

I actually came across that when clicking around in youtube the other day, but had to close it, as I was miles behind with work :D

@Barry - I've got enough rabbit holes to keep me busy until next summer, and if I spend any more time on Youtube, the likeliest outcome would be my old man strangling me, lol.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on September 15, 2016, 05:37:54 PM
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 

There's still a lot of denial among Democrats about how tight the race has become, despite abundant evidence from high-quality polls.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 15, 2016, 05:47:45 PM
I've seen loads of polls that had Trump ahead or close for the last 2-3 months, but its only this week that they have been making big stories about it on the news sites. Hard to tell which ones to believe but Nate Silver has always been one of the better folks in that regard imo.

The betting odds have not shifted all that much though.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 15, 2016, 05:50:37 PM
I've seen loads of polls that had Trump ahead or close for the last 2-3 months, but its only this week that they have been making big stories about it on the news sites. Hard to tell which ones to believe but Nate Silver has always been one of the better folks in that regard imo.

The betting odds have not shifted all that much though.

They've come in a fair bit in the last few weeks, as Trump has gone from >7/2 - ~7/4


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 15, 2016, 05:53:12 PM
Does the health thing with Hillary actually change anything? This is a rare election in that if we were being honest the yanks are voting for 'Not Trump' or 'Not Hillary' for the most part. I can't see any health scare make anyone think 'the poor woman wont be able to do the job, I better vote for someone with vastly different policies'.

IMO the only people it could shift are the ones who were on the fence about whether Hillary was an honest person or not and voting based on that.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 15, 2016, 07:56:03 PM
The national polls are irrelevant (other than being indicators of the trend). Okay, Clinton's big lead has been eroded (though one published at the weekend showed her back to 5% ahead). But national polls include all the States that are certain to vote one way or the other and piling up votes in States you always win doesn't help you win the election.

It's all decided by winning individual States on a winner-takes-all basis. So piling up support in safe States or chasing lost causes is a waste of resources. All the attention is on the dozen-or-so swing States. And Clinton has been holding her ground in most of those until now. http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/09/04/trump_is_closing_the_gap_in_national_polls_but_clinton_holds_battleground.html
 
Assuming Clinton holds on to Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado and Pennsylvania, which she probably will, that leaves New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa in the balance. Trump's problem is that he has to win all of them. Losing just one of those six States means he loses the election. Clinton has numerous ways she can win, whereas he only has one. At last, he seems to be doing well in some of the key States and, apparently, is now ahead in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. He is still behind, though, in North Carolina and New Hampshire, with Nevada wavering.

But it's worse than that for Trump. He has been having trouble in Republican bankers like Georgia and Arizona, and even Texas, where a lot of Republicans may stay home. He is back on course to hold all of those, but having to campaign there at all is an embarrassment, and the staff pulled back to defend those States weren't spending that time making inroads in North Carolina or New Hampshire.

All-in-all, it's still Clinton's to lose. It is likely to take a significant event for her not to win. A health issue or scandal involving her or Bill could do it. The FBI will be releasing emails and Wikileaks has some disclosures planned (probably timed for just before the third debate for max impact). A major screw-up in the debates is the other possibility. With little now to lose, Trump may go high-variance, resulting in either one of them coming across terribly. Unless there is something exceptional, though, it's hard to see how Trump gets there.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 15, 2016, 08:11:04 PM
All-in-all, it's still Clinton's to lose. It is likely to take a significant event for her not to win. A health issue or scandal involving her or Bill could do it. The FBI will be releasing emails and Wikileaks has some disclosures planned (probably timed for just before the third debate for max impact). A major screw-up in the debates is the other possibility. With little now to lose, Trump may go high-variance, resulting in either one of them coming across terribly. Unless there is something exceptional, though, it's hard to see how Trump gets there.

With almost eight weeks to go and it being the bat shit crazy year that has been 2016, I expect we'll see about 14 of these 'black swan' events.

A much as I loath the idea of either of those two becoming the most powerful person on the planet, fuck me those debates are going to be entertaining.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on September 15, 2016, 08:21:40 PM


My personal favourite if you are into his stuff on Jihad/theocracy/politics is this one

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAmE1cNB9WI

The rant at 28 mins is top class :D



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 16, 2016, 01:28:06 AM
Cruz: “If Something Happens To Hillary, I Agree To Run As A Democrat Against Trump”

http://www.usanewsinsider.com/cruz-something-happens-hillary-agree-run-democrat-trump/

(fake story)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 16, 2016, 01:35:43 AM
Cruz: “If Something Happens To Hillary, I Agree To Run As A Democrat Against Trump”

http://www.usanewsinsider.com/cruz-something-happens-hillary-agree-run-democrat-trump/

(fake story)



But I'm sure that his mum is praying for Hillary everyday, sometimes for hours.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 16, 2016, 01:51:25 AM
Ben Carson demonstrates once again how we have missed out by not having him as President:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFyWqAaWSyE

Reminds me of the time he left the campaign to go home to Florida to change his clothes.https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/01/ben-carsons-amazing-excuse-for-taking-a-break-from-the-campaign-trail-he-needs-fresh-clothes/

He would have been great as President.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 16, 2016, 03:07:45 AM
Haha, like some kind of sketch.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: bergeroo on September 16, 2016, 09:13:23 AM
Even money bet that Trump will or won't say the phrase 'Crooked Hillary' during the first debate. Which side would you take?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 16, 2016, 09:40:24 AM
Even money bet that Trump will or won't say the phrase 'Crooked Hillary' during the first debate. Which side would you take?

Jesus that's a good question, part of me thinks why the hell wouldn't he, gotta give him his dues the nicknames he gives people do stick. On the other hand he has shown a slightly more balanced side and probably will make more of the illness thing.

My gut says he wont.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on September 16, 2016, 10:59:31 AM
I'd take No

Its easy to fire those kind of shots when you're not in the same room and your opponents only right of reply is through a press release or a speech made hours later, but on the same stage Hilary can fire straight back about the hundreds of court rulings against him. My hunch is that now that she has the green light from the FBI over the emails she can go ahead and bring up The Donalds court record whereas before it was too risky to do so in case she she ended up being made to stand trial.

I'd expect to see something in the vain of Camerons 'calm down dear' and a jibe about whether she is feeling overheated :D



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on September 16, 2016, 11:22:23 AM
Even with the hugely massive bias from the (((networks))), the debate chair and audience will no doubt have, if she turns up, without an earpiece, he will absolutely verbally destroy her. She's as sharp as a blunt knife in verbal mano a mano warfare. You may loathe him, but you will never out game him. He is the master of game.

In saying that, if she does somehow manage to win the debate against him, I'll  give her a tip of my cap, she'd be the first person to do so that I've seen.

I think we can all agree though, that the first debate is going to be absolutely epic watching, I can't wait to observe.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on September 16, 2016, 11:27:38 AM
What do you mean by '(((networks)))'?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on September 16, 2016, 12:16:24 PM
That they are heavily influenced/owned by the establishment elite, the very people whom have the most to lose from a Trump presidency.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 16, 2016, 12:39:55 PM
Who would replace Hillary if she did have to drop out?

Biden? Sanders? Kaine? Maybe Kerry?

Roger Stone thinks he knows.

Stone is one of the most disgraceful and unethicaI people involved in US politics, with a history of nasty operations as long as your arm. He has a tattoo of his hero, Richard Nixon, on his back. I can't think of an equivalent to him in the UK. He has been advising Trump throughout most of the campaign. Roger is totally capable of straight-out lying - that is nothing to him. I don't know what his motivation is for this nonsense, but there must be some reason he is putting it out.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMcjXWxqEhw


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: bergeroo on September 16, 2016, 01:20:32 PM
Even money bet that Trump will or won't say the phrase 'Crooked Hillary' during the first debate. Which side would you take?

Jesus that's a good question, part of me thinks why the hell wouldn't he, gotta give him his dues the nicknames he gives people do stick. On the other hand he has shown a slightly more balanced side and probably will make more of the illness thing.

My gut says he wont.

My friend thinks that is a great price and he has gone big on 'No' because he thinks Trump will try to seem more Presidential in the debate and that he also only usually says things like that in the rallies with all his screaming supporters. If he gets made he might say it though. It is an interesting opinion - The price on No has gone now so perhaps some people agreed.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on September 16, 2016, 04:15:10 PM
Donald Trump is now in to 2.88 to win the 2016 USElection

His lowest odds since July.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Csd491oWEAAR714.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on September 16, 2016, 09:03:15 PM
How do you get the whole market depth and volume for the next president market on betfair?

Just curious to see if there were any 100-1 layers a couple of years ago that have the most insane sweat on :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 20, 2016, 01:57:48 PM
What is it about Trump that you don't like? His boorish behaviour, the blatant lies, the immaturity, the nastiness? Is he xenophobic, racist, misogynistic or homophobic? Is he too right-wing for you?

Why do you think so many of his own party's well-known players have turned their back on him? It ain't because he is xenophobic, racist, etc. They may say the correct things these days, but they aren't overly-bothered about that stuff. I don't think he actually is any of those things anyhow. Some were repelled by the terrible behaviour and decided he is unfit to lead the country, but most of them can live with it. The main reason that right-wingers in the GOP dislike him is that he's not conservative enough. He has caught our attention with a number of hard-line policies, but Trump's basic beliefs are liberal.

Some also fear a landslide defeat and want to be remembered as disowning him, but most distrust someone who has mostly been a liberal all his life, though he has flip-flopped on many issues over the years.

Conservatives are already seeing some of what they feared. You may remember the expressions of distaste on the faces of Rubio and Cruz when he said in the debates that his healthcare policy would mean that no-one would be left to die on the street. Just last week, he unveiled his proposals for funded childcare and maternity pay. They have gaps and don't go as far as Clinton's proposed scheme, but this is off-the-radar stuff for Republicans. He also said last week that birth control should be available over the counter. It may be the case that some of this is to catch up on women's votes, where he is well off the pace, but I think these type of policies do represent his true beliefs, and so do a lot of conservatives.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 20, 2016, 03:23:02 PM
Donald Trump Jr.‏ @DonaldJTrumpJr

This image says it all. Let's end the politically correct agenda that doesn't put America first. #trump2016

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CswRrhoW8AEo4Xy.jpg)


"Skittles are candy. Refugees are people. We don't feel it is an appropriate analogy. We will respectfully refrain from further commentary as anything we say could be misinterpreted as marketing."
- Denise Young, Wrigley America Vice-President of Corporate Affairs.

Some of the other responses are good. "You're not supposed to eat the refugees." "Why can't you just shoot the skittle that's gonna kill you. second amendment solutions" And so on. Some are more hard-hitting.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/778016283342307328


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 20, 2016, 05:43:22 PM
I've seen a massive massive shift in the mainstream/liberal media the last few days. Previously it was a 'we can't let this monster win' kind of tone, this week I have seen a lot of articles/tweets etc to the effect of 'how did we let this monster win?' - anyone else noticed something similar? The same kind of sentiment towards Trump, but with much more pessimism towards Hillary's campaign or a general feeling he might nick it.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 20, 2016, 06:03:32 PM
Can't say I've noticed anything different, other than the Donald trying to behave more like an adult.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 21, 2016, 02:07:29 AM
Election campaigns are great. You can hug as many members of the opposite sex as you like in public without anyone saying anything about it.

(http://static01.mediaite.com/med/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/hillary-christie-1.jpg)(http://www.billmarcus.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/hug.png)(http://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BBunKvF.img?h=373&w=624&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f&x=1215&y=982)
(http://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BBuZzgG.img?h=373&w=624&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f&x=1265&y=618)(http://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BBvGQz4.img?h=373&w=624&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f&x=1496&y=852)(http://thehill.com/sites/default/files/styles/article_full/public/blogs/clintonbush.jpg?itok=wGCFyJCg)(http://static.boredpanda.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/barack-obama-hillary-clinton-hug-photoshop-battle-46-579b15e766397__700.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 21, 2016, 05:53:00 AM
Looking forward to this on Saturday!


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 21, 2016, 06:06:08 AM
Looking forward to this on Saturday!

Yep. Clinton has a very light schedule of appearances this week. She had a packed day on Monday, but not much for the rest of the week, with none at all on Tuesday and Friday. At first I thought there was something health-related, but she is obviously spending the time preparing for the first debate.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/20/politics/hillary-clinton-debate/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 21, 2016, 06:08:33 AM
"Endorsement of Trump to Play Key Role in Christie’s Insanity Defense."

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/endorsement-of-trump-to-play-key-role-in-christies-insanity-defense


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 21, 2016, 06:15:59 AM
Looking forward to this on Saturday!

Yep. Clinton has a very light schedule of appearances this week. She had a packed day on Monday, but not much for the rest of the week, with none at all on Tuesday and Friday. At first I thought there was something health-related, but she is obviously spending the time preparing for the first debate.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/20/politics/hillary-clinton-debate/

She was on Jimmy Fallon last night, but that wasn't exactly tough, and was just lots of joking about, and she did say that she hadn't been doing much, on Dr's orders.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 21, 2016, 06:24:12 AM
"Endorsement of Trump to Play Key Role in Christie’s Insanity Defense."

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/endorsement-of-trump-to-play-key-role-in-christies-insanity-defense

That sounds insane, but would be com if it worked.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 22, 2016, 12:11:26 AM
Can Trump win? Right now, there only seems to be one way. I have given him everything possible below and he just shades it, but there is no room for slippage. To start with, he absolutely has to win both Florida and Ohio or it is over. He seems to have a grip on Ohio now, but Florida is very much in the balance. In the last two weeks, polls there have reported Tie, Clinton+1, Trump+4, Clinton+2, Trump+4, Tie, Clinton+5. Make of that what you will. Florida is one of the most fascinating races - I'll do some notes on it later in the week.

Colorado, Nevada and North Carolina are up for grabs. He had an 8-point lead in the last Iowa poll, but was behind in previous ones, so the position there isn't clear. Despite the close polls, Arizona and Georgia are likely to come home in the end, though Arizona has now been borderline across numerous polls.

All the States in Clinton's column are looking safe, whereas all but one of Trump's is wobbly, so the battles will be fought on his territory, which is never a good position to be in.

In the end, it seems it will come down to Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina and Florida. He needs them all.

          Normal          2012                 College Votes             Latest Poll          Solid/Weak
                 Trump       Clinton
   
Locked-up States                    164           197
   
Swing States
Georgia                    Rep           Rep                  16                         Trump+3           Weak
Arizona                    Rep           Rep                  11                       Trump+1           Weak
North Carolina            Rep           Rep              15                         Tie           Toss-Up
Colorado                  Swing           Dem                    9                         Trump+4           Toss-Up
Nevada                    Swing           Dem                    6                         Trump+3           Toss-Up
Ohio                      Swing           Dem                  18                         Trump+3           Weak
Florida                    Swing           Dem                  29                         Clinton+5           Toss-Up
Iowa                      Dem           Dem                6                         Trump+8           Solid
Maine    Dem           Dem                    1              3           Clinton+2           Solid
Wisconsin          Dem           Dem                                10           Clinton+2           Solid
Virginia          Rep           Dem                                13           Clinton+3           Solid
Michigan          Dem           Dem                                16           Clinton+4           Solid
New Hampshire              Dem           Dem                                  4           Clinton+9           Solid
Pennsylvania              Dem           Dem                                20           Clinton+9           Solid

Total                                                                          275            263  



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 22, 2016, 12:33:23 AM
He's going to do so much winning, the public will be sick of it...



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 22, 2016, 04:30:51 AM
Don King is a rich negro.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xO6WiMf5KLs


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 22, 2016, 06:44:51 AM
The Donald would like your help.

In preparation for next Monday's debate, the Trump campaign has issued a survey

You can let them know what issues he should bring up, even if the moderator doesn't, and so on.

This is your opportunity to have an input to the debates that may decide who will be President of the World for the next four years.

Foolishly, they have given an empty free-text box after each question, which is bound to lead to some entertaining responses.

Make sure you think carefully about Question 1.

https://www.gop.com/debate-prep-survey/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: neeko on September 22, 2016, 08:37:20 AM
The Donald would like your help.

In preparation for next Monday's debate, the Trump campaign has issued a survey

You can let them know what issues he should bring up, even if the moderator doesn't, and so on.

This is your opportunity to have an input to the debates that may decide who will be President of the World for the next four years.

Foolishly, they have given an empty free-text box after each question, which is bound to lead to some entertaining responses.

Make sure you think carefully about Question 1.

https://www.gop.com/debate-prep-survey/

That was fun, I thought my idea of needing more fake tan was particularly helpful.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 22, 2016, 01:58:33 PM
Make sure you think carefully about Question 1.

I see they have renumbered the questions. Last night, every question was numbered 1. Now this comment makes no sense, as pointless and annoying as a Trump insult.

I'm not sure how much they will learn from this survey. Surely most Trumpophiles will answer Yes to every question. They are hardly going to say that he shouldn't bring up any of the issues listed. I think they might have learned more by asking people to rank the issues according to how important they are to them.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 22, 2016, 04:46:54 PM
I suggested that the idea that Michelle Obama would be inserted as the candidate was nonsense, even if there was a vacancy, which I still think is the case this time around. She could be back though.

She is the most prominent of Clinton's surrogates, appearing on every show you can think of and doing her heartfelt speech thing all over the place. She always seems to be close to tears at some point in every speech - reminds me of the old joke about how you've got it made if you can fake sincerity.

I'm sure she could be a candidate in the future. The internet is full of people asking for just that - try Googling Michelle2024.

(http://ct.politicomments.com/ol/pc/sw/i53/2/1/18/pc_70022ab3c55056086ee2262c8d67425c.jpg)

Seems strange that it keeps coming back to a few families from a population of over 300m. It must be horrible for people who work their way through all the lower-level dogfights and finally reach a point where they can really make a difference and get some recognition, only to be blocked by a parachuted-in celebrity candidate.

At this point, Michelle is loved in a way that Hillary isn't, but she hasn't had to argue issues on her own behalf - she can cherry-pick Barack's successes to talk about on the shows. She will need a tougher image if she does go for it.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hFyLXnXtkw


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 22, 2016, 05:17:56 PM
And she was good on 'Carpool Karaoke'.

Get her into the Oval office now ;D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: rfgqqabc on September 23, 2016, 04:47:47 AM
"Endorsement of Trump to Play Key Role in Christie’s Insanity Defense."

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/endorsement-of-trump-to-play-key-role-in-christies-insanity-defense

It's in the humour section. Mildly unfunny stuff though, only noticed after seeing the author's other articles.

Wonder what the likelihood of serious election fraud being committed by either side is. Hard to say if it hasn't already.

http://observer.com/2016/09/former-democratic-congressional-candidate-says-hillary-stole-nevada/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: PokerBroker on September 23, 2016, 08:53:48 AM
I do like Michelle Obama, she does have the X Factor and you can see her appealing to a larger share of the electorate than Mrs Clinton. 

Much of this is a show and through her efforts on popular media Michelle has created a persona that makes her likeable if she enters politics when Barak steps aside I can see her going far.

Totally agree on the nepotism angle of American politics though.   



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on September 23, 2016, 11:13:46 AM
Trump's debate preparation survey: refer to 'crooked Hillary on stage' or not?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/22/donald-trump-debate-preparation-survey-supporters-input?CMP=twt_gu


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 23, 2016, 12:18:16 PM
"Endorsement of Trump to Play Key Role in Christie’s Insanity Defense."

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/endorsement-of-trump-to-play-key-role-in-christies-insanity-defense

It's in the humour section. Mildly unfunny stuff though, only noticed after seeing the author's other articles.

Wonder what the likelihood of serious election fraud being committed by either side is. Hard to say if it hasn't already.

http://observer.com/2016/09/former-democratic-congressional-candidate-says-hillary-stole-nevada/

Of course it's humour. I didn't think it was necessary to flag that.

There are many flaws and discrepencies with the US voting systems but I think the likelihood of serious election fraud is extremely low.

As the New York Observer (and observer.com) is owned by Ivanka Trump's husband, I'll take whatever it says with a very large pinch of salt. http://www.mediaite.com/online/%E2%80%8Bny-observer-endorsement-of-trump-far-worse-than-just-absurd-conflict-of-interest/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 23, 2016, 01:11:57 PM
Until yesterday, Kathy Miller was Chair of the Trump campaign in Mahoning County in the swing State of Ohio.

Now she has been forced out by media hounding from the PC brigade.

All she did was give an interview and say it's black people's own fault if they haven't been successful.

Oh, and that there was no racism in America before Obama came along. :o

Now, she's lost her position. Political correctness gone mad.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGFyTKm9MBk


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 23, 2016, 10:29:10 PM
Ted Cruz has just endorsed Trump!



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 23, 2016, 10:32:47 PM
Ted Cruz has just endorsed Trump!

Is he looking to get himself plotted up in the nuthouse, too? :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 23, 2016, 10:58:31 PM
Ted Cruz has just endorsed Trump!



Is that likely to add anything to Trump's final numbers? I presume anyone highly influenced by Cruz was never going to vote for Hillary anyway?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Tal on September 23, 2016, 11:02:05 PM
Ted Cruz has just endorsed Trump!



Any chance Trump refuses to accept his endorsement?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 23, 2016, 11:04:30 PM
After all the things that he said about Trump, he has gone and done it.

There have been rumours that this was coming. Cruz has been under pressure to come on board, but that has been the case throughout.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/ted-cruz-donald-trump-endorsement-228540

No doubt plenty will have gone on behind the scenes. Whether there is a quid pro quo remains to be seen. Earlier in the week, Trump supported Cruz' current battle to keep internet stewardship with the US instead of handing it over to the international community. Could there be more than that?

Whatever, it is a massive boost for Trump. Cruz will bring votes from conservatives who might have stayed home. Not sure whether it's a good idea for Cruz.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 23, 2016, 11:06:40 PM
Is that likely to add anything to Trump's final numbers? I presume anyone highly influenced by Cruz was never going to vote for Hillary anyway?

They might have stayed at home.


Any chance Trump refuses to accept his endorsement?

He has already welcomed it.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Tal on September 23, 2016, 11:16:54 PM
After all the things that he said about Trump, he has gone and done it.

There have been rumours that this was coming. Cruz has been under pressure to come on board, but that has been the case throughout.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/ted-cruz-donald-trump-endorsement-228540

No doubt plenty will have gone on behind the scenes. Whether there is a quid pro quo remains to be seen. Earlier in the week, Trump supported Cruz' current battle to keep internet stewardship with the US instead of handing it over to the international community. Could there be more than that?

Whatever, it is a massive boost for Trump. Cruz will bring votes from conservatives who might have stayed home. Not sure whether it's a good idea for Cruz.

He's supporting Cruz's mate for the Supreme Court, isn't he?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 23, 2016, 11:17:51 PM
Old 'Lyin' Ted' is on the firm...

Will he be making any little speeches at the debates, or anything like that?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 24, 2016, 12:11:53 AM
He's supporting Cruz's mate for the Supreme Court, isn't he?

Yep, and that's a weird one. There have been times when Mike Lee was Cruz' only supporter in the Senate. He is the only one on Trump's list who isn't a judge. Some Fox tweets saying that adding Lee to the Supreme Court list was part of the deal. https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisSnyderFox/status/779422357865848832

But they seem to be wrong, because Lee says he doesn't want it. "Sen. Lee already has the job he wants, which is why he is campaigning to represent the great people of Utah again this year. This does not change Sen Lee's mind about Trump in any way whatsoever.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/i/web/status/779319879556009984

It seems that Mike Pence is getting the credit for bringing Cruz in. Has also been cosying with Lee, who apparently wasn't ready to endorse. He has previously said he wouldn't do it because of the things Trump said about the father of his best frend (Cruz). I guess this leaves him a bit isolated.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 24, 2016, 12:40:01 AM
It's all going on. Hillary4America has released a long long list of Trump lies, each one accompained by a referenced quote that calls it out. They have called for the debate moderators to pull him up on them in real time if he uses them.

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/briefing/factchecks/2016/09/23/clinton-campaign-trump-cannot-pass-debate-test-if-he-repeats-these-debunked-lies/

The campaign has obviously saved this for just before the first debate, but it seems amazing that he has been allowed to continue stating these things with little challenge until now.

One way or another, everyone has a lot of reading to master before Monday, particularly the moderator.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: rfgqqabc on September 24, 2016, 09:22:02 AM
"Endorsement of Trump to Play Key Role in Christie’s Insanity Defense."

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/endorsement-of-trump-to-play-key-role-in-christies-insanity-defense

It's in the humour section. Mildly unfunny stuff though, only noticed after seeing the author's other articles.

Wonder what the likelihood of serious election fraud being committed by either side is. Hard to say if it hasn't already.

http://observer.com/2016/09/former-democratic-congressional-candidate-says-hillary-stole-nevada/

Of course it's humour. I didn't think it was necessary to flag that.

There are many flaws and discrepencies with the US voting systems but I think the likelihood of serious election fraud is extremely low.

As the New York Observer (and observer.com) is owned by Ivanka Trump's husband, I'll take whatever it says with a very large pinch of salt. http://www.mediaite.com/online/%E2%80%8Bny-observer-endorsement-of-trump-far-worse-than-just-absurd-conflict-of-interest/

Ah sorry, not up to date enough and didn't want anyone else to be fooled.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 24, 2016, 03:53:24 PM
Former Apprentice contestant Omarosa Manigault is a prominent Trump surrogate who represents him in interviews on many news shows every week.

Here she is in a trailer for a show to air next week, where she counters claims that Trump wouldn't work constructively with his opponents after he became Emperor President.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQtdHrfNx8s


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 25, 2016, 02:47:51 AM
Ugh. This election goes from bad to worse.

Hillary has reportedly invited Mark Cuban to sit in the front row at the debate. Cuban is a billionaire who owns an NBA team and other stuff. He has been one of the most visible critics of Trump, frequently described as trolling Trump. Clinton's team said they were putting him in because he has been so successful at highlighting Trump's negatives. Seems a crappy move, but there you go.

Trump's response? Unbelievable. He has dug up Gennifer Flowers and invited her to sit in the front row. If you don't remember her, gee that's sweet, you rugrat. Long before Monica Lewinsky was heard of, Gennifer Flowers was Bill Clinton's paramour. It all came to light during Bill's first Presidential campaign and nearly derailed it until Bill and Hillary undertook a joint interview of denial that succeeded in limiting the damage. Gennifer claimed she had had a 12-year affair with Bill, which he denied, though he did admit a few years later that they had done it, but just once.

Trump suggested the idea, apparently as an empty threat, but Gennifer then tweeted that she is up for it. Hopefully, Trump didn't really mean it. How low can you go?


Donald J. Trump Verified account @realDonaldTrump   
If dopey Mark Cuban of failed Benefactor fame wants to sit in the front row, perhaps I will put Gennifer Flowers right alongside of him!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/779729180334387200

Gennifer Flowers ‏@gennflowers
Hi Donald. You know I'm in your corner and will definitely be at the debate!
https://twitter.com/gennflowers

Sometimes I feel like I don't want to read anything more about this year's awful election. What has happened to the powerful American system that it has been brought to this?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 25, 2016, 03:41:32 AM
It's like WWE, lol.

What time is the first debate, MintTrav?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 25, 2016, 10:57:04 AM
It's like WWE, lol.

What time is the first debate, MintTrav?

It's in the wee hours of Monday night/Tuesday morning, it's on all the major news channels, I've sky plussed it.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 25, 2016, 10:59:02 AM
Ugh. This election goes from bad to worse.

Hillary has reportedly invited Mark Cuban to sit in the front row at the debate. Cuban is a billionaire who owns an NBA team and other stuff. He has been one of the most visible critics of Trump, frequently described as trolling Trump. Clinton's team said they were putting him in because he has been so successful at highlighting Trump's negatives. Seems a crappy move, but there you go.

Trump's response? Unbelievable. He has dug up Gennifer Flowers and invited her to sit in the front row. If you don't remember her, gee that's sweet, you rugrat. Long before Monica Lewinsky was heard of, Gennifer Flowers was Bill Clinton's paramour. It all came to light during Bill's first Presidential campaign and nearly derailed it until Bill and Hillary undertook a joint interview of denial that succeeded in limiting the damage. Gennifer claimed she had had a 12-year affair with Bill, which he denied, though he did admit a few years later that they had done it, but just once.

Trump suggested the idea, apparently as an empty threat, but Gennifer then tweeted that she is up for it. Hopefully, Trump didn't really mean it. How low can you go?


Donald J. Trump Verified account @realDonaldTrump   
If dopey Mark Cuban of failed Benefactor fame wants to sit in the front row, perhaps I will put Gennifer Flowers right alongside of him!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/779729180334387200

Gennifer Flowers ‏@gennflowers
Hi Donald. You know I'm in your corner and will definitely be at the debate!
https://twitter.com/gennflowers

Sometimes I feel like I don't want to read anything more about this year's awful election. What has happened to the powerful American system that it has been brought to this?


Could have been worse he could have invited Juanita Broaddrick.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 25, 2016, 11:32:38 AM
It's like WWE, lol.

What time is the first debate, MintTrav?

It's in the wee hours of Monday night/Tuesday morning, it's on all the major news channels, I've sky plussed it.

Yep. The actual face-off is 2.00-3.30am, with no breaks  :o (how unAmerican!), plus as much pre-match build-up and post-match analysis as you can handle. There has been speculation in right-wing circles that Clinton may struggle to last 90 minutes standing with no bathroom or rest breaks, which may just be wishful thinking, though remember she was late back on stage from a break in one of the Primary debates.

It is known that her side asked for step-stools, supposedly so that the large height-difference won't be so apparent. The organisers haven't allowed the stools, but have said they will do something with the stage to make the height thing less obvious. Not really what the Dems wanted, as the stools were probably to allow her to rest a bit. Seems a bit unnecessary, cruel even, to turn it into a physical endurance contest.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 25, 2016, 12:06:39 PM
Could have been worse he could have invited Juanita Broaddrick.

Fill the front row with them - Paula Jones, Monica, plus there are at least four others who have claimed affairs or one-offs with Bill.

I can't see her being there. I don't think Trump meant it, and she surprised him with her publicity-seeking. I would be surprised if Cuban is there either. If the candidates don't stop the nonsense, the organisers may well block attendees who are there for disruptive reasons.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 25, 2016, 02:13:34 PM
Want to make sure you lose a debate? There are plenty of ways you can guarantee that it won't matter what you or your opponent say on the issues. Here are a few:

Say something that is patently untrue:
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfyL4uQVJLw

Enter your opponents space and look like a bully:
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOySqutXC90

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAUcyfKESts

Say you have seen a UFO:
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSRWRbuMqyc

Say "Who am I? Why am I here?":
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKpX-5jQjQ0

Check your watch, as if you have somewhere more important to get to.
(This clip is a bit longer - the watch-check is right at the start.):
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBrW2Pz9Iiw

Turn off your hearing aid during the debate:
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWGg2JphrQM




Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on September 25, 2016, 02:28:13 PM
Latest WashPo/ABC poll: Likely voters: 46% Clinton, 44% Trump. Registered voters, Clinton/Trump are tied 41%


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on September 25, 2016, 03:29:25 PM
How much stock is it worth putting in these polls, how do they get the information, and do you think they're ever... idk, engineered to make it look closer than it is?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 25, 2016, 05:18:36 PM
How much stock is it worth putting in these polls, how do they get the information, and do you think they're ever... idk, engineered to make it look closer than it is?

One poll doesn't mean much on its own. In the last week there have been several polls, generally showing Clinton ahead, but varying between Trump ahead by four points and Clinton ahead by seven. RealClearPolitics keeps an average of recent polls, which gives a better idea than individual polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

I think most polls are done by phone, and there is a degree of self-selection and inherent bias in the people likely to take part. Polls that are representative of the population are not good indicators of the result, as some age-groups/races/income-brackets/education-levels are more likely to show up on election day. I think most of the major polls weight their findings to allow for this, but I'm not up to speed on which ones do or to what extent they weight different groups. I would bet there are differences in how they do it, though.

I don't think they are fixed. Romney claimed the polls were wrong the last time, but they were spot on. Bloomberg did a piece on the accuracy of polls in the State Primaries, and most of the well-known organisations were more than 90% accurate. It makes the point that if you use the averaging sites like FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, you don't really need to look anywhere else.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-03/the-2016-guide-to-political-predictions-which-matter-and-who-was-most-underestimated.

They have definitely improved since the 1948 election, when the polls and early results all showed Dewey streets ahead of Truman, and publishing deadlines led to this fiasco:
(http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQcBuem6AEgUc8ont4nZZXio30d2Q-sxPDLxgaLyG3oL90GVKamGQ)
(That's Truman in the photo.)

As we have said before, though, the national percentage is almost irrelevant. We need to examine the individual States.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 25, 2016, 06:56:54 PM
Kellyanne Conway has confirmed that Gennifer's not coming.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYXdwL9yOqg

You can imagine the conversations at Trump Headquarters.
- I need to talk with you.
- Oh God, what's he done now?
- He's tweeted that he's going to invite Gennifer Flowers to the debate.
- What? I thought one of us was going to stay with him?
- Sorry, I just went to the bathroom for a minute and he had done it by the time I got back.
- Can you clean it up?
- Yeah, I'll go on CNN in the morning and tell them it's a false alarm - that he just escaped off the leash for a while.
- Put the blame on Clinton.
- Of course.

They seem to be doing a pretty good job of managing him. And Kellyanne does well when she goes on TV. I feel a bit sorry for them - they deserve a better candidate.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 26, 2016, 03:32:00 AM
A sign of the times.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtOKr_OXEAExpMh.jpg:large)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on September 26, 2016, 03:38:43 AM
Want to make sure you lose a debate? There are plenty of ways you can guarantee that it won't matter what you or your opponent say on the issues. Here are a few:

Say something that is patently untrue:
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfyL4uQVJLw

Enter your opponents space and look like a bully:
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOySqutXC90

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAUcyfKESts

Say you have seen a UFO:
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSRWRbuMqyc

Say "Who am I? Why am I here?":
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKpX-5jQjQ0

Check your watch, as if you have somewhere more important to get to.
(This clip is a bit longer - the watch-check is right at the start.):
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBrW2Pz9Iiw

Turn off your hearing aid during the debate:
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWGg2JphrQM




Times have changed.

Trump has said numerous things which are "patently untrue" and it hasn't harmed him much, if at all.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 26, 2016, 03:54:07 AM
A sign of the times.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtOKr_OXEAExpMh.jpg:large)


Haha, madness!


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 26, 2016, 12:28:26 PM
It's the big day.

Before it kicks off, here is the master in action - Bill Clinton dealing with the same question that Bush struggled with above, and the contrast is unmissable. Bush said he was exposed to the economic problems because he wanted to know his grandchildren would be able to afford an education, even though everyone knew he had made millions in the oil industry, and then waffled without really answering the question or connecting with the questioner. Clinton shows how it should be done, and you can almost feel her falling in love with him.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ta_SFvgbrlY


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on September 26, 2016, 01:49:33 PM
Poll: Trump Leads Clinton Among Non-College-Educated White Men by a Whopping 59 Points http://bit.ly/2d1gTHa


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on September 26, 2016, 02:04:45 PM
It's the big day.

Before it kicks off, here is the master in action - Bill Clinton dealing with the same question that Bush struggled with above, and the contrast is unmissable. Bush said he was exposed to the economic problems because he wanted to know his grandchildren would be able to afford an education, even though everyone knew he had made millions in the oil industry, and then waffled without really answering the question or connecting with the questioner. Clinton shows how it should be done, and you can almost feel her falling in love with him.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ta_SFvgbrlY

You can basically see the other guy give up in the background, excellent stuff


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on September 26, 2016, 02:20:06 PM
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ex5K6ijNVI

Looking forward to tonight


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 26, 2016, 02:32:56 PM
I don't know what Gary Johnson is thinking of. He has such an opportunity this year, which previous third-party candidates never had. Both main-party candidates have serious weaknesses and are reviled by many. A lot of voters hate both of them and are looking for someone else to vote for. Unlike some past occasions, the Libertarian Party has real politicians representing it this time. Not only that, but they have held office and how to run a State, make real-life big decisions, etc. Johnson is a former Republican and was Governor of New Mexico for two terms, ie he performed well enough at it to be re-elected. His running mate is Bill Weld, another ex-Republican and another two-term Governor (Massachusetts). A dream-team for the Libertarians. They have been polling at 9-10%, touching 12% at one point, and  constantly look like they are on the verge of a major increase, if one of the others screws up.

So what does he do? This.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXhR41lsEJY

That was a few days ago.

Now he has said that space colonisation is the answer to global warming and it has received a lot of coverage.

Why do they do these things?





Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 26, 2016, 03:01:25 PM
Think he was on Rogan a while back, but haven't watched it.

I might do now, lol.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: nirvana on September 26, 2016, 03:11:41 PM
It's the big day.

Before it kicks off, here is the master in action - Bill Clinton dealing with the same question that Bush struggled with above, and the contrast is unmissable. Bush said he was exposed to the economic problems because he wanted to know his grandchildren would be able to afford an education, even though everyone knew he had made millions in the oil industry, and then waffled without really answering the question or connecting with the questioner. Clinton shows how it should be done, and you can almost feel her falling in love with him.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ta_SFvgbrlY

You can basically see the other guy give up in the background, excellent stuff

Pretty epic usage of 'the other guy'


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on September 26, 2016, 03:12:39 PM
Do you think this has anything to do with Trump? He seems to be trying to drag everyone into behaving like children, and everyone seems to want to outdo him. Wonder if we should ask Johnson how that's going for him?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 26, 2016, 03:20:02 PM
Do you think this has anything to do with Trump? He seems to be trying to drag everyone into behaving like children, and everyone seems to want to outdo him. Wonder if we should ask Johnson how that's going for him?

I think he has just given up to be honest (Johnson). He was coming across really well a few months ago and seemed like a sensible voice in all this mess.

Maybe it's just the nature of the Libertarians in general. I'd largely consider myself a Libertarian and would 100% vote for them if I was a yank (I'd still vote for him now but mostly as a protest vote). Almost every long form interview I have seen with Libertarians is 90% me agreeing with some very sensible ideas then raising my eye for the last 10% because they have just said or done something batshit crazy.

Case in point, this actually happened at the Libertarian Conference this year:

(http://content-img.newsinc.com/jpg/1171/30897939/37847494.jpg?t=1464598380)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on September 26, 2016, 07:14:40 PM
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8HTr-F-FVM

Such a shame


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on September 26, 2016, 07:39:12 PM
Best place to watch the action tonight (don't have sky, just standard freeview but obviously have the internet).


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on September 26, 2016, 07:45:17 PM
Channel 4?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 26, 2016, 07:45:24 PM
Best place to watch the action tonight (don't have sky, just standard freeview but obviously have the internet).

http://news.sky.com/watch-live

The Beeb news channel too



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on September 26, 2016, 07:50:48 PM
Cheers guys :) (meant best in terms of coverage and analysis etc as well as where to actually watch it)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on September 26, 2016, 08:10:06 PM
CNN or MSNBC probs best for you, will have the biggest Clinton slant.

Don't tune in to Fox, you'll get triggered


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 26, 2016, 11:04:13 PM
All the commentators seem agreed on a few things. First, that Clinton has been preparing hard for the last couple of weeks and will know everything about everything. Also, she has prepared for two Trumps, the bombastic one and the respectful one.

It also seems to be common knowledge that Trump hasn't done the same preparation. He hasn't bothered with the usual mock-debates with stand-ins that everyone does (and she has). Apparently, he has been meeting each Sunday with a small group, concentrating more on his approach than on facts. You will also hear everywhere that he has a lower bar to clear as expectations are lower for him, so he just has to avoid throwing a wobbly to pass. It's all about being seen as Presidential by the US public. Polls this week show that still only 41% think he is qualified to be President and only 35% think he has the required temperament. There have been leaks that she is going to try to make him lose his cool and he has to avoid doing so. Kellyanne says that he is going to be respectful and 'nice'.

There seems to be general agreement on that much, though both sides have been putting out misinformation, so I don't know how much is true.

There was also a story that he has been studying her body language in previous debates and has learnt her tells regarding when she is uncomfortable with an answer, so he can attack when he sees that. Pinch of salt time, maybe.

The truth is that these debates don't usually change much and whatever movement there is in the polls afterwards usually rolls back after a period, unless the debate is less than a week before the election. The main things that stick are screw-ups and zingers. Zingers are the prepared killer responses to things that the other guy may say - usually have to be a bit humorous and look off-the-cuff to work well. Kellyanne has reminded us that Hillary tried a few in 08 against Obama that fell flat as they weren't that funny and "the message has to match the messenger and the delivery style".

Trump has never debated one-on-one before, whereas Clinton is an old hand at it. He may find it a disadvantage to have to be involved all the time, compared with the crowded Primary debates where he could pick his time to strike. The lack of preparation and mock-debate practice may also show.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 26, 2016, 11:10:46 PM
Daniel Negreanu gives his view of what they should do in the debate.

Apparently, he has changed his nationality so he can vote in the election.

The comparisons with poker may seem like a silly approach, but he makes some surprisingly good points.

https://www.wired.com/2016/09/poker-pros-debate-strategy-clinton-trump/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on September 27, 2016, 02:18:59 AM
Some props on tonight's debate

https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/2016-presidential-election-betting-trump-vs-clinton-debate-props/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 27, 2016, 02:45:41 AM
Philippe Reines playing the part of Trump in the Clinton mock debates.

Apparently he has been pretty nasty, dishing questions about Monica Lewinsky, email servers,  Benghazi, etc.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtUZTe0XYAAGCZc.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 27, 2016, 03:05:38 AM
Should have gotten Bruce Buffer in to call them out ;D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on September 27, 2016, 03:15:16 AM
MEXICO!
CHINA!
MEXICO MEXICO MEXICO america MEXICO CHINA!


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 27, 2016, 03:18:19 AM
Could be a long night for The Donald.

She definitely knows how to push his buttons

'He got $14m from his father, and did well'

'I TURNED A SMALL LOAN INTO A COMPANY WORTH MANY BILLIONS!' :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on September 27, 2016, 03:30:23 AM
Rooting for people to lose their houses is "good business" apparently.

Surely the sort of people who were losing their houses are the sort of people who would vote for the Big Orange Monster?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 27, 2016, 03:39:26 AM
Guess they're not going to keep things above belt for the debates :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on September 27, 2016, 03:48:23 AM
Does anyone feel like she could wreck him by just standing back and saying "how"?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 27, 2016, 03:50:08 AM
What's the line for him saying 'I've built a tremendous company, an amazing business'  over the 3 debates?

Has to be at least 20 times...


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 27, 2016, 05:16:30 AM
Expecting support for Trump on Fox, but Megyn Kelly & the others are giving a win to Clinton.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on September 27, 2016, 09:52:13 AM
that was an incredible watch. my word, Trump was terrible (in tactics)

here's one verdict

Smug Hillary Clinton wins the first presidential debate, Trump looks like a plonker.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/smug-hillary-clinton-wins-debate-donald-trump-looks-like-plonker/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 27, 2016, 11:03:18 AM
Yeah Clinton won, she stayed on point, clearly very well prepared, had plenty of facts, had some pretty good comebacks/zingers and finished really strong.

Trump was all over the place, bizarre at time, very unprepared. He actually missed a few sitters too - never mentioned Hillary's donations from dodgy countries and had a few chances to do that, didn't trash her for her poor handling of classified information when the hacking question came up (he did it earlier but this was a real chance to do it again).

The one area where I think Trump did better was in the opening answers to questions before they started going back and forth. Trump did a better job of expressing average American grievances whereas Hillary had more platitudes. But Trump is a populist so that's what he would do.

It wasn't a home run for Hillary, but a thinking neutral would have been persuaded. She still isn't as charismatic as previous presidents, she just isn't Trump.

The question is, how much do these debates influence the final outcome? Trump in big trouble if they do because surely Hillary will be better prepared again for the next two?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 27, 2016, 01:43:27 PM
That was horrible. It's never enjoyable to watch someone being outclassed, even if they 'deserve' it. That was a thrashing - an eight-year-old trying to argue with a professor; an inexperienced boxer against the world champion. He started by constantly interrupting and shouting over her answers (and over the moderator), which looked terrible, and yet that was his best segment.

From then on, he was taken apart. But, while she was several levels better, he made it easy for her by missing the opportunities he had. Many of his answers just didn't make sense. He made unrelated points in successive sentences. Meanwhile, she sliced him to bits. By the end, he was so like that boxer, making wild swings while being beaten to a pulp.  

If I was an undecided voter, I would be thinking that this is the guy who has been telling us what a great negotiator he would be against Saudi Arabia, China, etc, but he can't remember to bring up his bargaining points. There were no questions on immigration or the wall but, as they have been the core of his campaign, he should have brought them in, and there were opportunities to do so. There was very little about her potentially exposed areas like Benghazi, Syria, the email server and no mention at all of the Clinton Foundation. Even Breitbart says that he failed to take his opportunities. I don't agree with much that his supporters believe in, but he let them down by being under-prepared for the biggest event of his life.

The main memory I have is of her laughing a few times at his terrible attempts, before taking him apart yet again. That might be a problem, if the image that sticks in people's heads is her being smug and over-confident.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 27, 2016, 02:05:26 PM
You know your stuff on US elections Mint, historically how decisive have these debates been over the years?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 27, 2016, 02:39:56 PM
Much less than we like to think.

There is usually some movement in the polls afterwards, but it often reverses in about a week. They are usually in roughly the same position after the debates as they were beforehand. There is a graph somewhere illustrating this - I'll see if I can find it. From memory, I think the main one that didn't reverse was Reagan-Carter, as the final debate was less than a week before the election. Haven't checked that, but I think it was the case.

If they do have an effect, it is generally the first one that matters. I guess the impression is set in people's heads, and they then just see whatever reinforces that in the later ones. The Nixon-Kennedy debates are usually quoted. I haven't watched them, other than snippets, but it is agreed by all that Kennedy won the first and Nixon either won the other three or else the last one was a draw, but he won over the series. Yet, the first one is the one that stuck, party because the audience was much lower for the others. The exception is Obama-Romney, where Obama was decisively trounced in the first, but turned it around in the two later meetings.

I haven't seen the audience figures for last night, but they were expecting to break records. I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers are lower for the others, so the damage may be done.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 27, 2016, 03:02:41 PM
Much less than we like to think.

There is usually some movement in the polls afterwards, but it often reverses in about a week. They are usually in roughly the same position after the debates as they were beforehand. There is a graph somewhere illustrating this - I'll see if I can find it. From memory, I think the main one that didn't reverse was Reagan-Carter, as the final debate was less than a week before the election. Haven't checked that, but I think it was the case.

If they do have an effect, it is generally the first one that matters. I guess the impression is set in people's heads, and they then just see whatever reinforces that in the later ones. The Nixon-Kennedy debates are usually quoted. I haven't watched them, other than snippets, but it is agreed by all that Kennedy won the first and Nixon either won the other three or else the last one was a draw, but he won over the series. Yet, the first one is the one that stuck, party because the audience was much lower for the others. The exception is Obama-Romney, where Obama was decisively trounced in the first, but turned it around in the two later meetings.

I haven't seen the audience figures for last night, but they were expecting to break records. I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers are lower for the others, so the damage may be done.

Pretty much what I thought it would be like. Most Trump supporters wont have changed their mind and vice versa.

TBH I think, barring a 'black swan event', you could do the election tomorrow and get the same result as November.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 27, 2016, 03:38:04 PM
The debates have no effect:

(https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/files/2012/10/erikson_wlezien_debates.jpg)

The only election where voting intentions have been significantly different after the debates was in 76, when Ford did that crazy 'no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe' thing.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on September 27, 2016, 04:21:40 PM
John

one of the fun/interesting things last night was various news outlets/blogs "live fact checking" for "whoppers". Bloomberg was the highest profile one i think

i think the final tally was Trump 34, Clinton 4 demonstrable lies/untruths

was that new to this campaign (and because of Trump) or would they have been feature of past election debates?

no word of a lie, Trump did the rounds of the media room afterwards and actually denied he'd said some of the things he'd said half an hour earlier

one wag suggested that by about next February he will drop into a speech that he had never run for President!



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Longines on September 27, 2016, 04:42:00 PM
Won't mean too much if you weren't a fan but this is brilliant - 10 years since the series finished:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzae4DKexko


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on September 27, 2016, 04:52:34 PM
No getting away from it, Trump under performed last night. Not an election loosing performance imo, but he missed so many chances to stick the shiv in, he also lost his frame on a few occasions.

I think more than anything it will have been a wake up call, which will I'm sure prepare him for the next one. He was just too soft.

Trump 0 - 1 Hillary


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 27, 2016, 04:53:51 PM
was that new to this campaign (and because of Trump) or would they have been feature of past election debates?

The fact-checks would come out a day or two later, by which time people had made their minds up, so it was worth lying to score points. The public being able to check in real-time and share their findings is a huge change that the politicians need to adapt to. I though Trump had cleaned it up a bit after Clinton enlisted the fact-checkers and told them to 'get to work' after some dodgy statement, so I'm surprised if he still told that many whoppers. Presumably, debaters in future years will be forced to be more accurate in what they say.


no word of a lie, Trump did the rounds of the media room afterwards and actually denied he'd said some of the things he'd said half an hour earlier

I think they made a huge mistake there. They were probably concerned that it hadn't gone well but it left open the possibility that he would say something harmful off-the-cuff, which he did. It was madness for him to say that the moderator did a good job and was fair, whether true or not, as he undermined all his supporters who were trying to claim that Holt had been biased.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 27, 2016, 11:03:32 PM
Not a great night for Jill Stein, who is creating a new tradition of trying to get into the debates.

In 2012, she managed to get arrested and held by the police for eight hours, handcuffed to a chair for part of it. That was a dream publicity result.

(http://i.huffpost.com/gen/819149/images/o-JILL-STEIN-ARRESTED-facebook.jpg)

Last night, unfortunately, the police were much nicer, even posing for photos with her, before escorting her off the grounds, so no headline-grabbing arrest, leaving her to make do with an impromptu rally outside.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtTD3AxWcAAG5iW.jpg)

(https://shadowproof.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Screen-shot-2016-09-26-at-5.13.26-PM.png)

Better luck next time.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 27, 2016, 11:50:26 PM
This made me chuckle.


Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump go into a bakery. As soon as they enter the bakery, Hillary steals three pastries and puts them in her pocket.

She says to Donald, "See how clever I am? The owner didn't see anything and I don't even need to lie.” I will definitely win the election.

The Donald says to Hillary, "That's the typical dishonesty you have displayed throughout your entire life, trickery and deceit. I am going to show you an honest way to get the same result."

Donald goes to the owner of the bakery and says, "Give me a pastry and I will show you a magic trick." Intrigued, the owner accepts and gives him a pastry. Trump swallows it and asks for another one. The owner gives him another one. Then Donald asks for a third pastry and eats that, too.

The owner is starting to wonder where the magic trick is and asks, "What did you do with the pastries?"

Trump replies, "Look in Hillary's pocket".




Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 29, 2016, 05:32:45 AM
Just watched the Obama Town Hall, and he really is a very impressive man.

Not a debate, but still, it was a world away from Trump, and even Clinton.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on September 29, 2016, 07:12:23 PM
Just for the Sam Harris fanboys, nowt to do with Trump

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AF1clOh34ME


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on September 29, 2016, 07:48:50 PM
Interesting stuff, isn't it. Him and Rogan were talking about it a fair bit on #804.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on September 30, 2016, 04:54:27 AM
Lots of leaks from the Trump team that they tried to get him to follow conventional debate preparation, but he just wouldn't do it. They brought in a lectern to have mock debate sessions, but he wasn't having it, preferring to prepare around a table - working up points to use, rather than practicing delivery. He also declined to study the fact-books prepared.

This, of course, was madness - defying the conventional wisdom and cutting something that is proven to work. He will have learnt a lot from the experience of the debate and should be better next time, but he could have learnt a lot of it at home in a safer environment.

We are told that seven different close advisors have said something anonymously to the press along the lines of him skimping on preparation. Assuming that the family wouldn't do it kind of narrows down who has been trying to preserve their own reputation.

It has also come out that the sessions had to be moved from Trump's home to Trump Towers, as too many distractions kept coming up at home. What does that tell you about lack of organisation?

In contrast, Clinton prepared in detail, with prepared answers for all the hard questions and then took part in full-on practice debates on all three nights immediately before the real thing, at the same time as the debate, even including full TV make-up.

Kellyanne says that we will see a very different Trump next time and The New York Times reports why:  'New Debate Strategy for Donald Trump: Practice, Practice, Practice' http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/29/us/politics/donald-trump-debate.html



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: atdc21 on September 30, 2016, 12:51:44 PM
This made me chuckle.


Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump go into a bakery. As soon as they enter the bakery, Hillary steals three pastries and puts them in her pocket.

She says to Donald, "See how clever I am? The owner didn't see anything and I don't even need to lie.” I will definitely win the election.

The Donald says to Hillary, "That's the typical dishonesty you have displayed throughout your entire life, trickery and deceit. I am going to show you an honest way to get the same result."

Donald goes to the owner of the bakery and says, "Give me a pastry and I will show you a magic trick." Intrigued, the owner accepts and gives him a pastry. Trump swallows it and asks for another one. The owner gives him another one. Then Donald asks for a third pastry and eats that, too.

The owner is starting to wonder where the magic trick is and asks, "What did you do with the pastries?"

Trump replies, "Look in Hillary's pocket".




 :)   haha like it


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 01, 2016, 01:05:40 AM
Too Many Cooks?

There are rumours that the set-up of Trump's debate team is going to be changed, with Chris Christie being put in charge. Steve Bannon has nominally been leading the sessions, but the Donald has generally taken them over. Apparently Christie was "brutally honest" with Trump after the debate and they are thinking of letting him take over the debate prep.

There has been criticism that the sessions so far have been too big, with a dozen people involved when they were all there. Bannon and Christie have been there. In addition, Rudy Giuliani and Jared Kushner have been playing increasingly leading roles in the campaign and the debate prep. Giuliani, ex-Mayor of New York, is half-mad, but he is a fearsome debater. Kushner (Ivanka's husband) is a property and publishing millionaire. He hates Christie, who led an investigation which sent his father to jail, not a good basis for team-building. It has been reported widely that Trump had Christie pencilled in for VP, but had his mind changed by Kushner, so the antipathy is mutual.

David Bossie has been in the meetings. He is yet another nasty piece of work. He worked for Bush Snr in the 92 election but Bush was so appalled at Bossie's attempts to dig the dirt on the Clintons that he not only condemned his "filthy campaign tactics", but filed a legal complaint against him and had George W contact party members to urge them not to assist Bossie. He also has bad history with Gingrich. He has undertaken loads of unbelievable stuff. Some of it is here http://tinyurl.com/jxd4xda, but you could fill a book with what he has done. Of course, that means he is an excellent fit for the team and Trump has appointed him Deputy Campaign Manager.

Laura Ingraham has been involved. I'm not sure to what extent, but she has been there. I suggested back here http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=66429.msg2155847;topicseen#msg2155847 that they should bring her into the team and they obviously read this thread, as that is exactly what they did.

Kellyanne Conway has also been there, of course, and Ivanka was at some of them. Also, two other staffers, Steve Miller and Jason Miller, plus two retired generals (wtf?).

That makes up to thirteen people in the room, plus Paul Ryan and Reince Priebus phoning into the meetings, and Roger Ailes winding Trump up in between.

A lot of the problems lay with the candidate, but one issue with the team was that they often didn't agree with each other on the best strategy, before even telling the candidate what he should do. Is that any surprise with so many people? It contrasts with Clinton, who prepared with a group of three or four (plus Bill sometimes).

Maybe Christie can turn it around, if he can get Kushner, Giuliani and Bannon to agree. This is a group with too many leaders. Christie is a busy person, though - he is already in charge of the 'transition team', which is preparing to convert the campaign into an Administration, and is forever fending off the never-ending Bridgegate scandal. He also still has a major State to run (or, he is supposed to be running, still being Governor and all), where there was a major train crash yesterday. If he can find the time and get the backing, he needs to trim the debate team and manage the candidate. I expect Trump has already learnt enough to perform much better next time anyway. If Christie can get the team under control, he might be able to get Trump within closer range of Clinton's level.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 01, 2016, 01:30:59 AM
Thought this was pretty funny

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BG2P9xkFgVk


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 01, 2016, 01:50:31 AM
The Dems are worried that the non-establishment feeling in the air means that they are bleeding votes to the third-party candidates Stein and Johnson (surely they can't both be third-party; doesn't one of them have to be fourth-party?). This did for them once before, when Ralph Nader took Al Gore's votes, so it is a real thing. Also, HRC isn't attracting the younger votes they need. So, it's time to call on Bernie. Expect to see more of him in the next few weeks.
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uselection/democrats-target-libertarian-ticket/ar-BBwJlZk?ocid=iehp

Johnson is making the task of peeling his votes easier than it should be. First there, was the Aleppo thing:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKb2oiJluLk

Then he did the tongue thing.

Now, he has demonstrated either his lack of knowledge and/or ability to function under pressure:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8m1LGp1AxA

If that doesn't convince you not to vote for him, you could take a look at the Libertarians' policies - abolish income tax, state welfare, state pensions, state education, and all regulation on wages, prices, rents, etc. It's up to individuals to make their own arrangements and buy education, health care, etc through the free market from private providers or obtain help from family or charity. No restrictions on free movement or free trade. Leave WTO, NATO and all trade agreements. No controls on drugs. Open immigration. Keep your guns.

(http://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AAidpSf.img?h=373&w=624&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f&x=1135&y=720)



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 01, 2016, 01:56:44 AM
Just wow :O

How do these people get so far?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 01, 2016, 03:41:32 AM
Just wow :O

How do these people get so far?

He had no real opposition (once Jesse Ventura decided not to run). He has a massive background compared to the other options  and he was endorsed by all the leading Libertarians, including Ventura, Drew Carey, both Penn and Teller and Marvin Bush (brother of Dubya and Jeb), plus just about everyone who has ever held office in the Libertarian Party. When you consider that one of his two main opponents was John McAfee (as in the anti-virus software), who is literally insane (and I do mean literally), you can see why he crushed them. That party desperately needs better candidates.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 01, 2016, 05:07:28 AM
Speaking of the Libertarians, trading votes is on the agenda.

1. One idea is that a Libertarian in a swing State could swap votes with a Clinton supporter in a safe State, so the Libs get their national percentage, but Clinton doesn't get underminined.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/16/opinion/anti-trump-republicans-dont-waste-your-vote-trade-it.html?WT.mc_id=2016-SEPT-FB-InternationalHIGHMC-AUD_DEV-0920&WT.mc_ev=click&ad-keywords=AUDDEVGate&_r=0

2. Another idea is for a Democrat supporter and a Republican supporter, who both hate their options this time, to be matched, with both voting for Johnson, so they can avoid supporting a candidate they don't like, without undermining their party.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLAh3pui-CI

It's a clever tactic, but would it work?....


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 01, 2016, 06:16:19 AM
Throughout its history, USA Today has never endorsed a candidate for President. This was its opinion page yesterday.

(http://cbsnews1.cbsistatic.com/hub/i/r/2016/09/30/ee819e7d-03c8-4e23-a78c-4be746a6f495/thumbnail/1200x630/c2c66ee8f07128f02c85f85266be0ca5/cbsn-0929-7pm-usatodaytrump-1137786-640x360.jpg)

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/09/29/dont-vote-for-donald-trump-editorial-board-editorials-debates/91295020/

Its not alone. Numerous conservative newspapers, which have always endorsed Republicans, have endorsed either Clinton or Johnson.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/conservative-newspapers-breaking-tradition-abandon-trump-n656911


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: hector62 on October 01, 2016, 10:08:31 AM
I think Trump can have whoever he likes in the room to prepare for the debates, it won't fix the problem. His problem is that he is actually pretty stupid, and once the question moves away from a prepared pat answer, and he has to think, he is stuffed. His only solution is an earpiece feeding him everything he has to say, and I am sure that is not allowed.

The whole election just reminds me of the film " Sophie's Choice ".

Whilst I pray that Trump gets humiliated in the vote I so want to see him explain away the  reasons why there was no wall built.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 01, 2016, 11:18:09 AM
Just wow :O

How do these people get so far?

He had no real opposition (once Jesse Ventura decided not to run). He has a massive background compared to the other options  and he was endorsed by all the leading Libertarians, including Ventura, Drew Carey, both Penn and Teller and Marvin Bush (brother of Dubya and Jeb), plus just about everyone who has ever held office in the Libertarian Party. When you consider that one of his two main opponents was John McAfee (as in the anti-virus software), who is literally insane (and I do mean literally), you can see why he crushed them. That party desperately needs better candidates.

Jesse Ventura, there's a blast from the past :D

Who'll be running next time, Hulk Hogan?

This is even better than House of Cards!


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 01, 2016, 01:28:24 PM
He had no real opposition (once Jesse Ventura decided not to run). He has a massive background compared to the other options  and he was endorsed by all the leading Libertarians, including Ventura, Drew Carey, both Penn and Teller and Marvin Bush (brother of Dubya and Jeb), plus just about everyone who has ever held office in the Libertarian Party. When you consider that one of his two main opponents was John McAfee (as in the anti-virus software), who is literally insane (and I do mean literally), you can see why he crushed them. That party desperately needs better candidates.

All those candidates are Trump-esque when you think about it, though much more likeable.

The fella who played Jacob in Lost is also the leader of the American Capitalist Party

(https://ncjl.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/605-jacob-01.jpg)

Before we judge we do appear to have this fella inching his way into politics
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Qcl8srBKxeM/maxresdefault.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 01, 2016, 01:40:10 PM
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhZDEiwll8A

First page when I searched ACP, so that's me until racing starts :)

<3 Lost


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 01, 2016, 02:00:33 PM
Just wow :O

How do these people get so far?

He had no real opposition (once Jesse Ventura decided not to run). He has a massive background compared to the other options  and he was endorsed by all the leading Libertarians, including Ventura, Drew Carey, both Penn and Teller and Marvin Bush (brother of Dubya and Jeb), plus just about everyone who has ever held office in the Libertarian Party. When you consider that one of his two main opponents was John McAfee (as in the anti-virus software), who is literally insane (and I do mean literally), you can see why he crushed them. That party desperately needs better candidates.

Jesse Ventura, there's a blast from the past :D

Who'll be running next time, Hulk Hogan?

This is even better than House of Cards!

Jesse Ventura was Governor of the State of Minnesota. It's hard to believe, but it happened. He has a long history of political involvement, serving a term as Mayor of his home city and then somehow got elected as Governor, catching the main parties off-guard. He served a full term and didn't destroy the State.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOfK9EF0kBA


If you want to be governed by someone who is into every conspiracy theory going, he's your man. That his running-mate was going to be Howard Stern tells you all you need to know. "We Can't Be Any Worse Than The Other Guys" must be the worst political slogan ever.

(http://orig09.deviantart.net/6b6d/f/2013/285/c/8/ventura_stern_2016_by_spiralcosmosart-d6q85kd.png)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 01, 2016, 03:09:25 PM
Nigel Farage to coach Donald Trump before next presidential debate.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/01/nigel-farage-donald-trump-ukip-presidential-debate-us?CMP=share_btn_tw


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 01, 2016, 03:12:21 PM
Donald Trump and the Dunning-Kruger effect — when stupid people don’t know they are stupid

http://www.salon.com/2016/09/30/idiocracy-now-donald-trump-and-the-dunning-kruger-effect-when-stupid-people-dont-know-they-are-stupid


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 01, 2016, 04:03:55 PM
Nigel Farage to coach Donald Trump before next presidential debate.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/01/nigel-farage-donald-trump-ukip-presidential-debate-us?CMP=share_btn_tw

That's amazing. What a career step for Farage.

He is a fantastic debater, but so are Giuliani and Christie. I'm not sure what he brings that they wouldn't.

Cruz said on a radio show a couple of days ago that he has offered to help with debate prep. That's the offer they really should have taken up - Cruz was a multiple US Champion debater (really).

In short, Farage, Giuliani and Christie are all master debaters, but Cruz is the greatest master debater of them all.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: neeko on October 01, 2016, 07:01:39 PM
Nigel Farage to coach Donald Trump before next presidential debate.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/01/nigel-farage-donald-trump-ukip-presidential-debate-us?CMP=share_btn_tw

That's amazing. What a career step for Farage.

He is a fantastic debater, but so are Giuliani and Christie. I'm not sure what he brings that they wouldn't.

Cruz said on a radio show a couple of days ago that he has offered to help with debate prep. That's the offer they really should have taken up - Cruz was a multiple US Champion debater (really).

In short, Farage, Giuliani and Christie are all master debaters, but Cruz is the greatest master debater of them all.

It's rather irrelevant as he never seems to listen to advise anyway.

One of his problems is that there are too many people giving different ideas in the room, he needs to pick 3 who give consistent advise and then follow it.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 01, 2016, 07:17:22 PM
The funny thing with Trump is that it was his debating style that got him this far, he destroyed all of the Republican nominees, now in order to debate Hillary he is being a bit more restrained and moving a little more towards the centre, so he seems to have lost what got him here along the way.

I guess the question is whether this more restrained Trump is winning over the undecideds. It might. For all the folks saying 'he lost' right now there might also be some undecideds saying 'well he didn't get his old man out and wave it at her, so he wasn't as bad as I worried he would be.'

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlqKFlU7YAs


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 02, 2016, 06:10:46 PM
Presidential candidate Gary Johnson shows he is just as bad as the rest of them when it comes to splashing obscene amounts of money on advertising.

(https://d1ai9qtk9p41kl.cloudfront.net/assets/db/14655702034184461_fm.jpg?h=207&w=276)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 02, 2016, 07:06:59 PM
Trump showed us again last night why he will be a President the world will respect.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHOHWmT6yuk


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 02, 2016, 08:39:05 PM
The Donald is certainly providing plenty of colourful material.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 03, 2016, 04:15:00 AM
Just in case you haven't see these:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nQGBZQrtT0

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oC4VXwFibWY


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 03, 2016, 02:55:43 PM
"Probably the worst week any presidential nominee's had in modern American history. There are no parallels,"

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-03/trump-worst-week-ever


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 03, 2016, 05:33:30 PM
Can't wait to see The Donald in action again this week, lol.

SNL bits are com :D



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 03, 2016, 05:41:12 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct1wSv6WEAAtX6X.jpg)

According to WikiLeaks Clinton suggested the US should 'drone' Julian Assange.

That should spice up the next debate.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on October 03, 2016, 10:16:21 PM
I've never seen a SNL sketch before but those are incred, hi youtube rabbit hole


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on October 03, 2016, 10:20:47 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct1wSv6WEAAtX6X.jpg)

According to WikiLeaks Clinton suggested the US should 'drone' Julian Assange.

That should spice up the next debate.



Feel like that's pretty easy to defend against, could just say obviously wikileaks are going to spin a story like that about me because I don't like them :p


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Doobs on October 04, 2016, 12:08:45 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct1wSv6WEAAtX6X.jpg)

According to WikiLeaks Clinton suggested the US should 'drone' Julian Assange.

That should spice up the next debate.



Feel like that's pretty easy to defend against, could just say obviously wikileaks are going to spin a story like that about me because I don't like them :p

And Julian Assange has a pretty big conflict of interest here.  His reason for not coming out of hiding to face possible justice in Sweden is because he fears the USA may do bad things to him.  


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 04, 2016, 12:20:19 AM
Trump in Colorado at the moment, and one of my American friends just shared a link to him 'live', which I caught a few minutes of.

He's like the Pied Piper, it's amazing. Whatever he says, they all just clap and holler :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 04, 2016, 01:26:19 AM
I've never seen a SNL sketch before but those are incred, hi youtube rabbit hole

Did you notice that Hillary in the first one was Kellyanne Conway in the second?

If you liked those, you have to see this one:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Jh2n5ki0KE


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 04, 2016, 05:34:45 AM
'Hillary Clinton is Done'.

Assange is releasing a video today with revelations about Clinton.

I saw a quote earlier saying "Wednesday, Hillary Clinton is done" and thought it was Assange who had said it, mainly because it was designed to look as though it was him. I find it hard to believe that WikiLeaks has material so damaging as to cause Clinton to drop out. If it did have stuff as damaging as that, it would be incredibly irresponsible to sit on it til now and let everyone get to this point before releasing it and disrupting the election so late in the day.

I guess he has some papers that are embarrassing but not fatal. The main suspicion is that she had an involvement in the sale of arms to ISIS or a predecessor group at an early stage, when the West saw anti-Assad groups as the solution for Syria. If that is it, Republicans (not just in Trump's team) and the media would make a lot of noise about it, but I think most of it would die down. People already know that anti-government forces in Syria, some of which are now seen as the enemy, were supported at that time.

It turns out that the quote actually came from Roger Stone, Chief Democracy-Underminer for the Trump campaign.

'Hillary Clinton Not Done', I think, if that is the extent of it.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717196/Hillary-is-done-warning-Julian-Assange-WikiLeaks-major-announcement


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 04, 2016, 10:34:23 AM
I find it hard to believe that WikiLeaks has material so damaging as to cause Clinton to drop out. If it did have stuff as damaging as that, it would be incredibly irresponsible to sit on it til now and let everyone get to this point before releasing it and disrupting the election so late in the day.


Wikileaks are not exactly known for being responsible with information though.

But yeah I agree with you, probably some sale of arms thing we probably should be horrified but actually won't be that surprised about.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 04, 2016, 10:53:07 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct3EKI_WgAUj5Ok.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 04, 2016, 10:53:53 AM
from a former trump advisor

@RogerJStoneJr

Wednesday @HillaryClinton is done. #Wikileaks.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on October 04, 2016, 01:09:31 PM
I've never seen a SNL sketch before but those are incred, hi youtube rabbit hole

Did you notice that Hillary in the first one was Kellyanne Conway in the second?

If you liked those, you have to see this one:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Jh2n5ki0KE

I did not notice that, seems obvious now!

Larry David as Bernie Sanders is genius, can't wait for season 9 of Curb

Kellyanne Conway is a funny one. I hadn't seen any footage of her until yesterday but in most of the articles that I've read she was portrayed as a campaign outsider that was bought in to be a voice of reason and dilute the crazy in Trumps campaign. That illusion was quickly shattered watching TV interviews where as recently as a couple of days ago she was attempting to spin Trumps misogyny as a few isolated incidents even though they just keep piling up day after day. The footage that Last Week Tonight unearthed on this last week is just....wow

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBrGOTnRIZM


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 04, 2016, 02:58:49 PM
Kellyanne Conway is a funny one. I hadn't seen any footage of her until yesterday but in most of the articles that I've read she was portrayed as a campaign outsider that was bought in to be a voice of reason and dilute the crazy in Trumps campaign. That illusion was quickly shattered watching TV interviews where as recently as a couple of days ago she was attempting to spin Trumps misogyny as a few isolated incidents even though they just keep piling up day after day.

Yeah, she will explain and rationalise anything. It is easy to underestimate her, but she is horribly effective. She is, essentially, an unprincipled hired gun willing to work for whoever comes along, rather than a true believer. She has worked for quite a few of the top Republicans along the way and was on Gingrich's team in 2012. She was running the biggest Cruz PAC until he chucked it in. This is what she was saying about Trump six months ago:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMm0dxPE0aY


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 04, 2016, 03:39:01 PM
Kate Mckinnon is really talented

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4q1L_JtMiI

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3iBb1gvehI


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 04, 2016, 04:21:38 PM
Nothing to do with the election, but have you seen her as Ellen?

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRKB4OnLmdg


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 04, 2016, 04:27:24 PM
she's very good. won an emmy this year for SNL and has just broken into films following the path of her predecessor on SNL Kristin Wiig.

does a brilliant justin bieber too

i spend far too much time you tube surfing SNL. Some of it is patchy, some of it is inspired

(homeland sketch, californians etc)

this is my favourite McKinnon where she gets them all corpsing

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfPdYYsEfAE


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 04, 2016, 05:04:53 PM
Well if there has been one good thing from this farce of an election is that we all know who Kate McKinnon is.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 04, 2016, 09:07:07 PM
So the big WikiLeaks revelation was a non-event, with Assange just talking about it being their tenth anniversary and promoting his new book. Conspiracy theorists all over the world are devastated, firstly that there were none of the expected revelations, but also that their hero would do this to them. Assange had teased the releases for weeks and allowed people to believe that today was the day, and now he has let them down. If you are a conspiracy theorist, what's your first conclusion? He's been got at; he's done a deal. From being their idol, they are now kicking him around. Some of them are sharing their disappointment on #WikiRolled  https://mobile.twitter.com/hashtag/WikiRolled?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw. The other conclusion is that he doesn't have much. No doubt, they have plenty of documents to release, but it seems there is nothing devastating, contrary to promises.

Alex Jones is one of the best-known conspiracy guys and he is not happy that he stayed up all night for Assange's expected bombshell announcement (10am German time). Jones is always angry, but usually at "establishment" politicians and media, rather than others in the conspiracy industry.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uKwrWr0-O4

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbRsWJaT4Go


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 04, 2016, 09:17:01 PM
Haha, Alex Jones is an absolute wack job!


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 04, 2016, 10:02:59 PM
There is a really funny chapter in the Jon Ronson book 'Them' where Jon and Alex Jones try and infiltrate a Bildeberg meeting. Something so entertaining about the unassuming Louis Theroux-esque Ronson following round that nutjob.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 04, 2016, 10:37:48 PM
There is a really funny chapter in the Jon Ronson book 'Them' where Jon and Alex Jones try and infiltrate a Bildeberg meeting. Something so entertaining about the unassuming Louis Theroux-esque Ronson following round that nutjob.

Think Rogan was talking about that on his podcast, and it might well have been with Louis Theroux that he was telling.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on October 05, 2016, 12:53:39 AM
Haha, Alex Jones is an absolute wack job!


Alex Jones has the distinction of being the only man in the world who makes Piers Morgan look good.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 05, 2016, 03:00:06 AM
Kaine-Pence VP debate coming up, if anyone if still up.

It's probably even less relevant to the election result than usual, with the extraordinary three-part main event, and these being two less charismatic politicians.

Logically, it should really attract more attention than normal this time, as it is more likely that one of these could end up as President, with both Presidential candidates being well beyond normal retirement age, one with question marks over their health and the other overweight and of unknown health, and both vulnerable to numerous potential scandals that could bring their tenure to a premature end.

This is likely to be more like the normal policy-heavy debate, though the personal stuff is likely to overflow into it.

Game on.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 05, 2016, 03:06:02 AM
Cheers for the heads up.

I'll give this a spin.


Haha, Alex Jones is an absolute wack job!


Alex Jones has the distinction of being the only man in the world who makes Piers Morgan look good.

:D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 05, 2016, 03:07:51 AM
Someone fecked up at GOP headquarters and released their verdict saying that Pence won the debate - before it even started.

https://mic.com/articles/155860/rnc-declares-mike-pence-the-vp-debate-winner-before-the-debate-even-begins#.x7dgkEw3T


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on October 05, 2016, 03:09:42 AM
Enjoyed how neither candidate really bothered to answer the first question :p


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 05, 2016, 03:13:14 AM
Not sure I'll see this one out.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 05, 2016, 03:33:55 AM
Think Pence seems more polished, however, he has a very smug look about him.

In fact, so does Kaine.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 05, 2016, 03:37:52 AM
It's a bit dull, eh? Can you believe that both of these guys have had responsibility for running a State?

The only interesting thing so far has been finding Nicole Scherzinger as moderator. But she is pathetically weak. Can't understand how she got this job when she can't even her control these two zombies. Imagine her trying to control a Trump/Clinton firestorm.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 05, 2016, 03:59:43 AM
I can't help thinking of Bigfoot and the Hendersons when I look at Pence :D



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 05, 2016, 04:04:09 AM
In fairness, I think they're both doing pretty well, once you acclimatise to the lower intensity. It's a pleasure to hear some reasonable discussion when they are on the issues, though not so much when they regurgitate the personal Trump/Clinton stuff that we have heard too many times already.

Kaine ran through a list of some of the things Trump has said, and that might end up the difference, as I can see these two ending up equal apart from the Trump-shaped weight inhibiting Pence.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 05, 2016, 04:23:50 AM
They've done even more interrupting than the other 2, but agree that it has been a lot more placid.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 05, 2016, 04:49:43 AM
Republicans must be hoping that Trump gets caught in a limo with a bag of coke and some hookers, so that Pence can take his spot.

What's the likelihood that Pence runs in 2020?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 05, 2016, 05:10:03 AM
Eric Trump is his fathers son :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 05, 2016, 05:11:34 AM
Jesus, he's like his old man on coke!



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 05, 2016, 05:25:29 AM
Republicans must be hoping that Trump gets caught in a limo with a bag of coke and some hookers, so that Pence can take his spot.

What's the likelihood that Pence runs in 2020?

Probably quite likely to run, now he's a household name. Most seem to be giving him the edge tonight. I think he is mainly getting the nod because he (mostly) just didn't bother defending Trump, speaking about something else rather than defending Kaine's attacks. That was pretty disloyal to Trump in a way, so I guess he is positioning for the next time.

I thought they both improved as it went on. I liked Kaine's performance, but they were both better than I expected. And yeah, as you say, Pence showed Trump how it should be done.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 05, 2016, 05:32:44 AM
Watching the CNN aftermath, and one of the guys actually said that Pence has basically announced he will run in 2020.

Not defending Trump at all, and throwing him under the bus.

I thought it was Kellyanne Conway on the panel, but it's her twin, Kayleigh something.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 05, 2016, 05:36:20 AM
Republicans must be hoping that Trump gets caught in a limo with a bag of coke and some hookers, so that Pence can take his spot.

What's the likelihood that Pence runs in 2020?

Probably quite likely to run, now he's a household name. Most seem to be giving him the edge tonight. I think he is mainly getting the nod because he (mostly) just didn't bother defending Trump, speaking about something else rather than defending Kaine's attacks. That was pretty disloyal to Trump in a way, so I guess he is positioning for the next time.

I thought they both improved as it went on. I liked Kaine's performance, but they were both better than I expected. And yeah, as you say, Pence showed Trump how it should be done.

I actually thought Pence was the better tonight, but it was much of a muchness, and I wouldn't have thought anyone would be dissuaded from previous positions by it.

Think that the moderator from last week might be feeling quite smug, after getting some stick.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 05, 2016, 10:18:12 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct7YsqBWcAArgvD.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 05, 2016, 01:16:31 PM
Eric Trump is his fathers son :D

I see what you mean now. Just watched his effort on CNN last night. He's even more annoying than Donald.
 
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/10/eric-trump-says-dad-pays-federal-income-tax-wont-prove-it.html


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 05, 2016, 02:51:14 PM
 the YouGov Election Model – a state-by-state assessment of the Presidential race, updated every day

http://y-g.co/2dtMjpH

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuALNloWEAAkUdj.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: neeko on October 05, 2016, 03:40:48 PM
Why is the right in America in red and the left in blue, when in Europe red is left wing?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 05, 2016, 04:07:24 PM
Eric Trump is his fathers son :D

I see what you mean now. Just watched his effort on CNN last night. He's even more annoying than Donald.
 
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/10/eric-trump-says-dad-pays-federal-income-tax-wont-prove-it.html

Hard to imagine anyone could be, but he is more annoying, and had about 40 years less practice :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on October 05, 2016, 04:24:19 PM
Why is the right in America in red and the left in blue, when in Europe red is left wing?

I don't think the parties ever had colours - I think I read it was brought in by the tv companies with colour tv as they had to show some difference on a map. It may even have been as simple as 'Republican and red both start with R'


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 06, 2016, 10:19:11 AM
The Atlantic was founded in 1860. It has only ever endorsed 3 Presidential candidates. Now it turns on Trump

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/11/the-case-for-hillary-clinton-and-against-donald-trump/501161/?utm_source=atlfb

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuB8ZVLW8AEKrsH.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 06, 2016, 12:25:27 PM
Obama in the economist

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuE-J5HWAAAmmJK.jpg)

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21708216-americas-president-writes-us-about-four-crucial-areas-unfinished-business-economic


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 06, 2016, 12:31:50 PM
"His affect" - WTF!

I am in favour of language developing and changing, but sometimes changes don't seem to be improvements, and the expanded use of verbs as nouns often looks awkward. "The build", "the reveal" and, ugliest of all, "the invite", are now in common use, but I have never seen "the affect" used in this way. I don't know whether The Atlantic has just invented it. It looks odd to me but I guess we might have to get used to seeing this "invent".



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 06, 2016, 03:28:33 PM
Leaks indicate that Clinton was happy with the performance of the 'loser' in the VP debate, while Trump was not happy with the 'winner'. While Pence has been given the win on points, we are told that Kaine entered the debate with the objective of undermining Trump further, rather than winning the debate. The VP is often required to sacrifice their own best interest for the good of the President, and it seems that Kaine may have already started. This may be a reflection of the Democrats' increasing confidence that they are going to win, just as Pence's disloyalty shows that he may have little expectation of having to work with Trump after next month.

(http://stmedia.startribune.com/images/ows_146923350363643.jpg)


While Pence went through the standard debate prep, locking himself away for a week with one-time front-runner Scott Walker (Gov of Wisconsin) and having four mock debates, there are reports that Trump has learned nothing from his mauling and, despite all the suggestions for changes, is doing nothing different for the next debate. The debate team sat around again at the weekend, just the eight of them this time (!) - Trump, Giuliani, Priebus, Christie, Conway, Steve Miller, Bannon and Kushner, with Christie taking a lead role (as he should).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/02/christie-advises-trump-on-town-hall-tactics-ahead-of-second-debate/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on October 06, 2016, 04:37:28 PM
What is the difference between a 'town hall' debate and the setup for the first one? I have read that Trump could do better in this formet but none of the articles have actually explained the difference


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 06, 2016, 04:40:32 PM
What is the difference between a 'town hall' debate and the setup for the first one? I have read that Trump could do better in this formet but none of the articles have actually explained the difference

I watched Obama's 'Town Hall' last week, and that was questions from members of the audience.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 06, 2016, 05:11:02 PM
uh oh for democrats. younger voters much les likely to vote 2016 v 2012

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuFogXAW8AE2chM.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 06, 2016, 05:14:31 PM
uh oh for democrats. younger voters much les likely to vote 2016 v 2012

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuFogXAW8AE2chM.jpg)

Not even considered the young voter turnout in this one, given it was a big bone of contention with Brexit I reckon it could be in this un.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 07, 2016, 10:47:40 AM
Hello, this is Lyin' Ted Cruz.
This humiliation is my punishment for crossing Donald Trump.
I hate myself right now.
I have no principles any more.
My father killed JFK.

(https://static.ijr.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/image-14-1024x511.jpeg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on October 07, 2016, 11:19:41 AM

I watched Obama's 'Town Hall' last week, and that was questions from members of the Acting community.


FYP


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on October 07, 2016, 01:23:59 PM
What is the difference between a 'town hall' debate and the setup for the first one? I have read that Trump could do better in this formet but none of the articles have actually explained the difference

I watched Obama's 'Town Hall' last week, and that was questions from members of the audience.



Cheers, how heavily vetted are the attendees? Do the candidates know any of the questions in advance? Aside from the obvious ones ofc


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 07, 2016, 02:55:34 PM
What is the difference between a 'town hall' debate and the setup for the first one? I have read that Trump could do better in this formet but none of the articles have actually explained the difference

I watched Obama's 'Town Hall' last week, and that was questions from members of the audience.



Cheers, how heavily vetted are the attendees? Do the candidates know any of the questions in advance? Aside from the obvious ones ofc

The people at the one I watched were serving members of the forces, and relatives of ex servicemen/women.

I'd imagine they're quite heavily vetted, given it's the POTUS attending.

However, they might have all been actors  ::)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 07, 2016, 03:50:27 PM
What is the difference between a 'town hall' debate and the setup for the first one? I have read that Trump could do better in this formet but none of the articles have actually explained the difference

I watched Obama's 'Town Hall' last week, and that was questions from members of the audience.



Cheers, how heavily vetted are the attendees? Do the candidates know any of the questions in advance? Aside from the obvious ones ofc

The people at the one I watched were serving members of the forces, and relatives of ex servicemen/women.

I'd imagine they're quite heavily vetted, given it's the POTUS attending.

However, they might have all been actors  ::)


Gallup has been given the job of providing the audience (who are all supposed to be uncommitted voters), so I guess it depends on how much faith you have in their independence.

Some of the questions are kind of known this time, as they are trying out having the public submit questions and vote on them. The top 30 will be "considered" by the moderators for conclusion. Presumably, they have not guaranteed the top three or whatever will be asked in case someone asks about The Simpsons or votey mcvoteface and everyone piles on. It's gotta be a lock that some questions will be asked from here, but are they really going to be questions that wouldn't be asked anyway?

If you want to, you can vote or even ask your own question here: https://presidentialopenquestions.com/,


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 07, 2016, 04:21:01 PM
Does Hillary use an actor to ask a staged question here?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-05/clinton-caught-using-child-actor-ask-planted-question-pennsylvania-townhall

I don't think it can happen on Sunday though.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 07, 2016, 05:55:24 PM
Not even considered the young voter turnout in this one, given it was a big bone of contention with Brexit I reckon it could be in this un.

It's a real problem that they haven't been able to resolve so far. As Hills isn't attracting the young, guess who they're turning to to do some speechifying for them - young Bernie Sanders. Might help. They are also bringing in........Al Gore. Jesus - that might have worked twenty-five years ago. Even then, he was a young fuddy-duddy, but he is over sixty now, and looks it. They seem to think that he will also remind voters how voting for the third party can mess things up, on account of Gore losing due to Ralph Nader's votes. I would give Gore himself plenty of credit for that defeat, throwing away an election he should have won, but whatever.

Surely they would do better to stick with Michelle Obama, who young people seem to like, and maybe set Chelsea Clinton loose. Or maybe get some real young people involved. If not proper young ones, there must be some youngish starry politicians who would connect better than Gore. I would say, at this stage, they are more likely to go all the way without finding a solution than they are of cracking it.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: BigAdz on October 07, 2016, 09:06:21 PM
We have an American guest over at the moment.

Dr in Engineering type.

Telling us he fully expects Trump to win, despite all his failings.

People are very scared over there at the moment and even living in the outskirts of Chicago(50 km from centre), he has taken up arms.

More importantly, he was telling us that Obamacare is a complete disaster for middle class types.

He was paying $300 per month before Obama got his hands on HealthCare. Now he is paying $900 a month, with an excess of over $8000 if he actually has to use it!

His words were "we can't afford to be ill" even though they are paying through the nose.

He anticipates this continuing during any Clinton administration.

Makes you glad for the Health Service!!


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 07, 2016, 10:38:17 PM
We have an American guest over at the moment.

Dr in Engineering type.

Telling us he fully expects Trump to win, despite all his failings.

People are very scared over there at the moment and even living in the outskirts of Chicago(50 km from centre), he has taken up arms.

More importantly, he was telling us that Obamacare is a complete disaster for middle class types.

He was paying $300 per month before Obama got his hands on HealthCare. Now he is paying $900 a month, with an excess of over $8000 if he actually has to use it!

His words were "we can't afford to be ill" even though they are paying through the nose.

He anticipates this continuing during any Clinton administration.

Makes you glad for the Health Service!!

Yeah this. I know quite a few yanks for whom Obamacare has been a total disaster, and yep makes me very happy to have an NHS.

As for Chicago, the gun/gang violence over there is horrifying and largely being unreported.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 08, 2016, 12:20:28 AM
I've become friends with a couple guys from the US, one of whom is a pollster, and another was a lawyer, who was responsible for running campaigns. One of which was for someone who actually became president (I think it was Carter)

We had dinner with them a few times in Vegas this summer, and they both said that Trump had a serious chance of winning, too.  

They are democrats, but weren't happy, and it was a case of 'Hold my nose and vote for Hilary'.

Might be good for the £ if Trump gets in, so that's one silver lining ;D



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on October 08, 2016, 09:45:16 AM
As for Chicago, the gun/gang violence over there is horrifying and largely being unreported.


(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/09/20/20160922_charlotte1_0.jpg)


Guess which one of these get reported on the most by the MSM?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 08, 2016, 10:33:54 AM
Trump tape on groping women should destroy him - but will it?

http://reaction.life/trump-tape-groping-women-destroy-will/?sf


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 08, 2016, 11:00:57 AM
Seems like a good time to stick a few quid on Trump if you were feeling inclined to anyway, his odds have gone up by quite a bit after his lewd comments leak. Any yank who was voting for him still is after this IMO, anyone outraged by it was never voting for him in the first place and he could deflect this in the debates by bringing up Bill Clinton's indiscretions which everyone thought he would in the first debate.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 08, 2016, 11:06:31 AM
Seems like a good time to stick a few quid on Trump if you were feeling inclined to anyway, his odds have gone up by quite a bit after his lewd comments leak. Any yank who was voting for him still is after this IMO, anyone outraged by it was never voting for him in the first place and he could deflect this in the debates by bringing up Bill Clinton's indiscretions which everyone thought he would in the first debate.

Exactly like Mr Harris said, the people who love him don't care.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGgvNeOZbu4

Still makes me lol, even now :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 08, 2016, 11:16:58 AM
its the most insane political year on both sides of the pond

i mean, this headline...

who could have imagined this?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuNofyRWEAINFnJ.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 08, 2016, 11:18:30 AM
one commentary i was listening to said

paraphrasing a bit but..

"Trump will lose, but its not Trump you have to worry about. Hillary will be a one term president and the next GOP candidate might be just as dangerous only more controlled, look more sensible and get elected"


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 08, 2016, 11:38:10 AM
Seems like a good time to stick a few quid on Trump if you were feeling inclined to anyway, his odds have gone up by quite a bit after his lewd comments leak. Any yank who was voting for him still is after this IMO, anyone outraged by it was never voting for him in the first place and he could deflect this in the debates by bringing up Bill Clinton's indiscretions which everyone thought he would in the first debate.

Exactly like Mr Harris said, the people who love him don't care.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGgvNeOZbu4

Still makes me lol, even now :D

The secret sauce to why that is funny is Rogan's infectious laugh

You'll like this
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEettFbTTNE



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 08, 2016, 11:40:14 AM
one commentary i was listening to said

paraphrasing a bit but..

"Trump will lose, but its not Trump you have to worry about. Hillary will be a one term president and the next GOP candidate might be just as dangerous only more controlled, look more sensible and get elected"

This. Career politicians of all persuasions should be looking at Trump's rise and should see it as a blueprint for how to appeal to people sick of 'elitist' establishment politicians.

Not sure it's a bad thing if the actually good politicians take a leaf from his book too.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 08, 2016, 11:56:18 AM
Seems like a good time to stick a few quid on Trump if you were feeling inclined to anyway, his odds have gone up by quite a bit after his lewd comments leak. Any yank who was voting for him still is after this IMO, anyone outraged by it was never voting for him in the first place and he could deflect this in the debates by bringing up Bill Clinton's indiscretions which everyone thought he would in the first debate.

Exactly like Mr Harris said, the people who love him don't care.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGgvNeOZbu4

Still makes me lol, even now :D

The secret sauce to why that is funny is Rogan's infectious laugh

You'll like this
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEettFbTTNE



Americans are mental.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: titaniumbean on October 08, 2016, 01:59:29 PM
We have an American guest over at the moment.

Dr in Engineering type.

Telling us he fully expects Trump to win, despite all his failings.

People are very scared over there at the moment and even living in the outskirts of Chicago(50 km from centre), he has taken up arms.

More importantly, he was telling us that Obamacare is a complete disaster for middle class types.

He was paying $300 per month before Obama got his hands on HealthCare. Now he is paying $900 a month, with an excess of over $8000 if he actually has to use it!

His words were "we can't afford to be ill" even though they are paying through the nose.

He anticipates this continuing during any Clinton administration.

Makes you glad for the Health Service!!

Yeah this. I know quite a few yanks for whom Obamacare has been a total disaster, and yep makes me very happy to have an NHS.

As for Chicago, the gun/gang violence over there is horrifying and largely being unreported.

8k isn't all that bad considering the price otherwise over there!!!



Chicago also seems like a truly delightful place to reside-


https://theintercept.com/2016/10/06/in-the-chicago-police-department-if-the-bosses-say-it-didnt-happen-it-didnt-happen/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 08, 2016, 02:47:00 PM
Down the Rogan rabbithole we go...

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90LGetWUGF8

Joey Diaz should run in 2020, as he surely can't be any more out of place than Trump & Johnson are now :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 08, 2016, 03:35:59 PM
This is not something Trump said this week. Someone has been sitting on this tape all the time, and has decided that this is the time it will cause maximum damage. I think we have to hope it is not too successful. Several Republican Senators, ex-Governors, etc have called for Trump to step down from the race since yesterday. If that happened, just about any replacement would have a much better chance against Clinton. It should be an open competition to replace him, but a few are talking about Mike Pence stepping up. With his good image of being the reasonable and intelligent side of the ticket, enhanced by the VP debate, Pence may have a stronger chance of winning the election than anyone else in the party, despite never having been a candidate in the Primaries. Isn't US politics strange?

In my view, this would be a disaster for us all. Pence is one of the most dangerous politicians in the US. His history hasn't been highlighted, but I fear for the US if we ever see a President Pence. The best outcome will be for Trump to be damaged, but struggle on.

I agree with the comments above that either winner is likely to be a one-term President (if that). There is an above-average possibility of them not completing the term. If they do, they will probably be seriously unpopular and ineffective. If Obama has been hamstrung by the GOP majority in Congress, what chance does Hillary have of getting much done? As has been stated, what about 2020? Numerous candidates have given a good account of themselves on the Republican side this time and are well-placed for the next one. Who have the Democrats got coming through? Sanders will be gone. Kaine?  Yeah, right.  O'Malley? Forget it. Presumably some others will make their mark by then. At least the demographics increasingly favour the Democrats, so it might work out in the end.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 08, 2016, 03:47:46 PM
This is not something Trump said this week. Someone has been sitting on this tape all the time, and has decided that this is the time it will cause maximum damage. I think we have to hope it is not too successful. Several Republican Senators, ex-Governors, etc have called for Trump to step down from the race since yesterday. If that happened, just about any replacement would have a much better chance against Clinton. It should be an open competition to replace him, but a few are talking about Mike Pence stepping up. With his good image of being the reasonable and intelligent side of the ticket, enhanced by the VP debate, Pence may have a stronger chance of winning the election than anyone else in the party, despite never having been a candidate in the Primaries. Isn't US politics strange?

In my view, this would be a disaster for us all. Pence is one of the most dangerous politicians in the US. His history hasn't been highlighted, but I fear for the US if we ever see a President Pence.
The best outcome will be for Trump to be damaged, but struggle on.

I agree with the comments above that either winner is likely to be a one-term President (if that). There is an above-average possibility of them not completing the term. If they do, they will probably be seriously unpopular and ineffective. If Obama has been hamstrung by the GOP majority in Congress, what chance does Hillary have of getting much done? As has been stated, what about 2020? Numerous candidates have given a good account of themselves on the Republican side this time and are well-placed for the next one. Who have the Democrats got coming through? Sanders will be gone. Kaine?  Yeah, right.  O'Malley? Forget it. Presumably some others will make their mark by then. At least the demographics increasingly favour the Democrats, so it might work out in the end.

You think Pence would be a worse President than Trump (if so why?)? Or you think Pence has a better shot of getting in the White House and that's what concerns you more?



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 08, 2016, 03:59:55 PM
This is not something Trump said this week. Someone has been sitting on this tape all the time, and has decided that this is the time it will cause maximum damage. I think we have to hope it is not too successful. Several Republican Senators, ex-Governors, etc have called for Trump to step down from the race since yesterday. If that happened, just about any replacement would have a much better chance against Clinton. It should be an open competition to replace him, but a few are talking about Mike Pence stepping up. With his good image of being the reasonable and intelligent side of the ticket, enhanced by the VP debate, Pence may have a stronger chance of winning the election than anyone else in the party, despite never having been a candidate in the Primaries. Isn't US politics strange?

In my view, this would be a disaster for us all. Pence is one of the most dangerous politicians in the US. His history hasn't been highlighted, but I fear for the US if we ever see a President Pence.
The best outcome will be for Trump to be damaged, but struggle on.

I agree with the comments above that either winner is likely to be a one-term President (if that). There is an above-average possibility of them not completing the term. If they do, they will probably be seriously unpopular and ineffective. If Obama has been hamstrung by the GOP majority in Congress, what chance does Hillary have of getting much done? As has been stated, what about 2020? Numerous candidates have given a good account of themselves on the Republican side this time and are well-placed for the next one. Who have the Democrats got coming through? Sanders will be gone. Kaine?  Yeah, right.  O'Malley? Forget it. Presumably some others will make their mark by then. At least the demographics increasingly favour the Democrats, so it might work out in the end.

You think Pence would be a worse President than Trump (if so why?)? Or you think Pence has a better shot of getting in the White House and that's what concerns you more?

Both. I think he would have a better chance, but I think he would be much worse - not in terms of competency (clearly he is far more competent), but his beliefs and his track-record as Governor.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 08, 2016, 04:02:35 PM
This is not something Trump said this week. Someone has been sitting on this tape all the time, and has decided that this is the time it will cause maximum damage. I think we have to hope it is not too successful. Several Republican Senators, ex-Governors, etc have called for Trump to step down from the race since yesterday. If that happened, just about any replacement would have a much better chance against Clinton. It should be an open competition to replace him, but a few are talking about Mike Pence stepping up. With his good image of being the reasonable and intelligent side of the ticket, enhanced by the VP debate, Pence may have a stronger chance of winning the election than anyone else in the party, despite never having been a candidate in the Primaries. Isn't US politics strange?

In my view, this would be a disaster for us all. Pence is one of the most dangerous politicians in the US. His history hasn't been highlighted, but I fear for the US if we ever see a President Pence.
The best outcome will be for Trump to be damaged, but struggle on.

I agree with the comments above that either winner is likely to be a one-term President (if that). There is an above-average possibility of them not completing the term. If they do, they will probably be seriously unpopular and ineffective. If Obama has been hamstrung by the GOP majority in Congress, what chance does Hillary have of getting much done? As has been stated, what about 2020? Numerous candidates have given a good account of themselves on the Republican side this time and are well-placed for the next one. Who have the Democrats got coming through? Sanders will be gone. Kaine?  Yeah, right.  O'Malley? Forget it. Presumably some others will make their mark by then. At least the demographics increasingly favour the Democrats, so it might work out in the end.

You think Pence would be a worse President than Trump (if so why?)? Or you think Pence has a better shot of getting in the White House and that's what concerns you more?

Both. I think he would have a better chance, but I think he would be much worse - not in terms of competency (clearly he is far more competent), but his beliefs and his track-record as Governor.


Could you give cliffs on the top 2-3 concerns? I don't know much about him other he is anti-online poker.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: neeko on October 08, 2016, 04:06:41 PM
As I understand us politics, the congress is in republican hands for a long time as they have gerrymandered the seats to the point where they can't actually lose. This leaves the senate, presidency and Supreme Court as the restraining influence.

The senate is in play this time as a lot of republican seats are up for reelection and not many dem ones, (6 years cycle), especially if with trump as the nominee Republican votors may not t turn up to vote.

A dem senate and president could fix the Supreme Court for the next generation as democratic leaning and mean that the 2020 result does not matter so much.

Given the mess of the EU and brexit, boring status quo in the US for a few years would be good for the world.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on October 08, 2016, 04:07:18 PM
This is not something Trump said this week. Someone has been sitting on this tape all the time, and has decided that this is the time it will cause maximum damage. I think we have to hope it is not too successful. Several Republican Senators, ex-Governors, etc have called for Trump to step down from the race since yesterday. If that happened, just about any replacement would have a much better chance against Clinton. It should be an open competition to replace him, but a few are talking about Mike Pence stepping up. With his good image of being the reasonable and intelligent side of the ticket, enhanced by the VP debate, Pence may have a stronger chance of winning the election than anyone else in the party, despite never having been a candidate in the Primaries. Isn't US politics strange?

In my view, this would be a disaster for us all. Pence is one of the most dangerous politicians in the US. His history hasn't been highlighted, but I fear for the US if we ever see a President Pence. The best outcome will be for Trump to be damaged, but struggle on.

I agree with the comments above that either winner is likely to be a one-term President (if that). There is an above-average possibility of them not completing the term. If they do, they will probably be seriously unpopular and ineffective. If Obama has been hamstrung by the GOP majority in Congress, what chance does Hillary have of getting much done? As has been stated, what about 2020? Numerous candidates have given a good account of themselves on the Republican side this time and are well-placed for the next one. Who have the Democrats got coming through? Sanders will be gone. Kaine?  Yeah, right.  O'Malley? Forget it. Presumably some others will make their mark by then. At least the demographics increasingly favour the Democrats, so it might work out in the end.

I was wondering the exact same thing.

Why release that tape now? Why not wait until 2 days before the election?

Some jiggery pokery going on I'll be bound.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 08, 2016, 04:12:23 PM
The Trump campaign has pulled advertising from several battleground States, booked weeks ago. This happened before the latest revelations. The suspicion is that they are short of funds, or Trump has given up on winning and wants to save the money, maybe to pay back loans he has given to the campaign or pay any left-over excess to charity (Trump Foundation?).

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-ad-reservations_us_57f7e122e4b0e655eab3dfde?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 08, 2016, 05:42:02 PM
Why release that tape now? Why not wait until 2 days before the election?

Some jiggery pokery going on I'll be bound.

Don't know exactly why now. S'pose any date is matter of judgement. Could be to allow the backlash to build up and fester. Could be that there are more things to drip-feed over the next few weeks. Could be to coincide with the Town Hall - it's always better for someone else (especially a normal voter) to bring up the dirt than the candidate.

My guess would be it's because early voting has just started (and Clinton is crushing so far by way more than expected). Some of the swing States could be wrapped up before 8 Nov.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 08, 2016, 06:01:11 PM
Thought I'd update the table of polls in the swing states, to see how they have moved since before the debates started. The polls weren't held on the dates shown - they are the most recent ones showing on RealClearPolitics on those dates. Some States don't have great differences in the results of different polling groups, but some States have got large differences. The most recent polls could be exceptions, but I didn't want to make it complicated.

Having said that, there is a clear trend. Clinton seems to have strengthened her grip on all the Swing States that were in her column. Trump had the lead in most of the States that he needs to win, and now he doesn't - there has been movement from to Clinton in almost all of them. There may be exceptions and outliers, and up to 3% may not be statistically significant, but they can't all be wrong. Trump needs something dramatic to happen to turn it around, as he needs to win all the States in the bottom group. He is only a couple of points behind in almost all of them, but the trend is in the wrong direction across the board. I think he'll take Georgia and Arizona, but the rest could go either way. Those two would get him to 191 College Votes. His most likely result is probably around 220. 270 seems impossible unless Clinton assaults someone. Worst case scenario could be not breaking 200.

One other caveat is that Reuters (not listed on RealClearPolitics) published polls on 5 Oct, showing Trump ahead in Colorado (2%), Iowa (7%), Nevada (2%), and Georgia (13%), with Michigan and Wisconsin tied. It is clearly doing something quite different to other pollsters, as its results are all much more Trump-friendly than the others. Also, its results seem to be the combined results on polling over the last 3-4 weeks all published together, so may be out-of-date (though the other polls have never reported those numbers). Two separate polls have reported Clinton with a startling 11% lead in Colorado, so Reuters may be on the wrong track.

                     College Votes                               % Lead               
                  Trump      Clinton          21 Sep                 7 Oct
   
Locked-up States                    164            197
   
Swing States

In the Bag for Clinton:
Michigan                                      16             Clinton+4           Clinton+11
Pennsylvania                                           20             Clinton+9           Clinton+9
Virginia                                       13             Clinton+3           Clinton+7
Wisconsin                                      10             Clinton+2           Clinton+7
New Hampshire                                             4             Clinton+9           Clinton+2

Trump Needs to Win:
Colorado                                     9                           Trump+4           Clinton+11
Maine                       1              3             Clinton+2           Clinton+3
Arizona                                    11                           Trump+1           Clinton+2
North Carolina                             15                           Tie           Clinton+2
Ohio                                       18                           Trump+3           Clinton+1
Nevada                                       6                            Trump+3           Tie
Iowa                                         6                           Trump+8           Tie
Florida                                    29                           Clinton+5           Trump+1
Georgia                                    16                           Trump+3           Trump+4
Total                                              275           263




Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 09, 2016, 11:14:10 AM
The Trump women learned long ago how to protect their privates parts when Trump is around them.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuRaSKNUIAEVrux.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 09, 2016, 11:15:01 AM
the effect on the odds

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuRYF-5WAAAyPnZ.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 09, 2016, 11:15:37 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuQtO9VVYAAU9yU.jpg)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuQtPZGUkAAPvjh.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 09, 2016, 11:20:14 AM
The debate tonight might be the television event of the decade.

Meanwhile Gary Johnson weighs in





Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on October 09, 2016, 01:09:10 PM
rofl Barry wins the thread, wpwp


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 09, 2016, 02:38:42 PM
SNL not bad with one day to write this

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sYGjoUcusM


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: bookiebasher on October 09, 2016, 03:02:23 PM
SNL not bad with one day to write this

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sYGjoUcusM


Enjoyed that Rich , thanks ;applause;


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Woodsey on October 09, 2016, 06:27:48 PM
Robert De Niro on The Don  rotflmfao

https://www.theguardian.com/global/video/2016/oct/08/robert-de-niro-id-like-to-punch-donald-trump-in-the-face-video

Be interesting to see how he responds, we know he will  ;nemesis;


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: aaron1867 on October 09, 2016, 07:21:44 PM
Just a couple of thoughts

Trump clearly in some hot water right now & with the debate tonight, what are the chances of him being under pressure early on, followed by him completely losing it towards the end (him knowing it's over)

Also the comments he has made, what % of vote is he to lose? Do his comments affect a huge proportion or are the women (that are voting for him) just see this as banter?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 09, 2016, 07:57:41 PM
I still really don't think this changes anything at all for Trump, to some extent it feels like the media is trying to force the 'Trump is finished' narrative. Is anyone really surprised with what he said? He has said so many worse things on stage. If you were voting for him on Thursday you are still voting for him today. And a well timed 'what I did was bad but Bill Clinton is a rapist' comment tonight might embolden Republicans against Hillary again.

Only problem I see for him is if the GOP literally force him out, which looks possible.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 09, 2016, 08:02:25 PM
I still really don't think this changes anything at all for Trump, to some extent it feels like the media is trying to force the 'Trump is finished' narrative. Is anyone really surprised with what he said? He has said so many worse things on stage. If you were voting for him on Thursday you are still voting for him today. And a well timed 'what I did was bad but Bill Clinton is a rapist' comment tonight might embolden Republicans against Hillary again.

Only problem I see for him is if the GOP literally force him out, which looks possible.

Just looked on his Twitter page and he is really going for it with the Bill rape stuff, tonight will be insane.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on October 09, 2016, 08:23:14 PM
Yh it looks like tonight is going to get very personal very quickly. Uncomfortable reading Trump's twitter at the moment.

For someone who didn't care one iota about politics at the time when Clinton was in power, what actually went on and is all this as bad as it's being made out to be?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on October 09, 2016, 09:15:18 PM
I still really don't think this changes anything at all for Trump, to some extent it feels like the media is trying to force the 'Trump is finished' narrative. Is anyone really surprised with what he said? He has said so many worse things on stage. If you were voting for him on Thursday you are still voting for him today. And a well timed 'what I did was bad but Bill Clinton is a rapist' comment tonight might embolden Republicans against Hillary again.

Only problem I see for him is if the GOP literally force him out, which looks possible.

Its been a tough year for it, but I really really want to keep some faith in humanity. That even if their husbands/fathers/brothers are staunch Trump supporters, they are lifelong republican voters and they tell the pollsters that they are voting for Trump, in the privacy of the polling booth millions of women just can't bring themselves to vote for the guy that brags about sexual assaults.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: acegooner on October 09, 2016, 09:16:21 PM
US politics is funny Trump represents a party that large swathes now don't  support him. Ohh wait that's not so nuts, we have Jeremy Corbyn here!!!!

Seriously though, how does he present himself as a credible world leader now in the company of the likes of Theresa May or Angela Merkel. Come on Donald your time has to be up this time, you have alienated yourself from half the US population.

My only worry is Hilary Clinton doesn't have the debating skills to stick the knife into Trump and finish him off, or does she?



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 09, 2016, 09:59:09 PM
US politics is funny Trump represents a party that large swathes now don't  support him. Ohh wait that's not so nuts, we have Jeremy Corbyn here!!!!

Seriously though, how does he present himself as a credible world leader now in the company of the likes of Theresa May or Angela Merkel. Come on Donald your time has to be up this time, you have alienated yourself from half the US population.

My only worry is Hilary Clinton doesn't have the debating skills to stick the knife into Trump and finish him off, or does she?



Clinton is a stone cold killer, and the last thing I'd be worried about, is her sticking the knife into someone :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 09, 2016, 10:01:46 PM
I still really don't think this changes anything at all for Trump, to some extent it feels like the media is trying to force the 'Trump is finished' narrative. Is anyone really surprised with what he said? He has said so many worse things on stage. If you were voting for him on Thursday you are still voting for him today. And a well timed 'what I did was bad but Bill Clinton is a rapist' comment tonight might embolden Republicans against Hillary again.

Only problem I see for him is if the GOP literally force him out, which looks possible.

Its been a tough year for it, but I really really want to keep some faith in humanity. That even if their husbands/fathers/brothers are staunch Trump supporters, they are lifelong republican voters and they tell the pollsters that they are voting for Trump, in the privacy of the polling booth millions of women just can't bring themselves to vote for the guy that brags about sexual assaults.

I have the reverse vision of what will happen, I think there will be a huge bunch of people who clam not to support Trump publicly but will vote for him when the curtains shut.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 09, 2016, 10:03:48 PM
US politics is funny Trump represents a party that large swathes now don't  support him. Ohh wait that's not so nuts, we have Jeremy Corbyn here!!!!

Seriously though, how does he present himself as a credible world leader now in the company of the likes of Theresa May or Angela Merkel. Come on Donald your time has to be up this time, you have alienated yourself from half the US population.

My only worry is Hilary Clinton doesn't have the debating skills to stick the knife into Trump and finish him off, or does she?

Clinton has the skills for sure, she proved that last time out, she'll have some zingers tonight. It all depends how convincing/brutal Trump can be with the Bill sexual assault claims that are inevitably coming tonight.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: aaron1867 on October 09, 2016, 10:46:31 PM
US politics is funny Trump represents a party that large swathes now don't  support him. Ohh wait that's not so nuts, we have Jeremy Corbyn here!!!!

Seriously though, how does he present himself as a credible world leader now in the company of the likes of Theresa May or Angela Merkel. Come on Donald your time has to be up this time, you have alienated yourself from half the US population.

My only worry is Hilary Clinton doesn't have the debating skills to stick the knife into Trump and finish him off, or does she?

Clinton has the skills for sure, she proved that last time out, she'll have some zingers tonight. It all depends how convincing/brutal Trump can be with the Bill sexual assault claims that are inevitably coming tonight.



You think Clinton will do well tonight? The last one in my eyes saw no real winner. They are exact opposites trump = aggressive, no depth. Clinton = depth, no aggression. I can see the same tonight & Clinton ending with "women, is this who you are voting for? Vote for me instead"


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 10, 2016, 01:52:15 AM
Got Fox News on, and Trump is holding a press conference with Bill's accusers.

Shouldn't he be getting ready for a debate?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 10, 2016, 03:03:55 AM
Melania and Ivanka seemed incredibly nervous as the camera flipped between them, Bill/Chelsea and Donald Jr/Eric in the wait for the start.

I thought both Hillary and Donald looked very tired answering the first question. Just an initial impression - might be wrong.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 10, 2016, 03:09:41 AM
Donald is now a true politician, because he never answers a question, lol.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 10, 2016, 04:19:59 AM
Trump prowling the stage and looming behind Clinton during her answers might not go down well.

(https://static01.nyt.com/images/2016/10/10/us/09livebriefing-debate/09livebriefing-debate-superJumbo.jpg)

(https://static01.nyt.com/images/2016/10/10/us/10live-1/10live-1-master675.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: aaron1867 on October 10, 2016, 04:40:40 AM
I thought this might be final nail in coffin for Trump, but I think he won that debate.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 10, 2016, 04:40:52 AM
Worth staying up for :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on October 10, 2016, 04:41:33 AM
Trump wins in a split decison?

It looked like that probably went about as well as it could have done besides a Hilary blowup


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 10, 2016, 04:47:34 AM
Don't know if anyone won, as such, however, Trump had the best one liners.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: muckthenuts on October 10, 2016, 04:59:15 AM
Don't think that really changed anything really, Trump didn't answer any questions. He clearly has no idea what to do about Syria and probably doesn't actually know what is happening in Aleppo. All i really gathered from that was Trump thinks he can keep saying "it's going to be great, so great" knowing his braindead supporters will continue to have faith in his utterly empty words. 

Now bed, worth staying up for though :)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: aaron1867 on October 10, 2016, 05:10:15 AM
He does make a good point about healthcare though, which of course might stick for him for those that struggle to pay for it.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: acegooner on October 10, 2016, 09:04:05 AM
Trump brings a new meaning to the word Teflon. Nothing truly sticks to him, including his hair!


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 10, 2016, 09:37:45 AM
"I got flowers in the spring. I got you to wear my ring"

"And when I'm sad, you're a clown. And if I get scared, you're always around"

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuY4mEWXgAAnKWB.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 10, 2016, 10:59:30 AM
Trump won. Not by being right or knowing stuff of course, but he won.

He did a really good job of deflecting his current scandal. In fact he does a great job of deflecting in general, by simply saying something so ridic you kinda had to let him carry on.

Q: "Donald what will you do about making sure school meals are healthy?"
Donald: "Well we will make sure we use locally farmed produce and I'll tell you another thing about how we are going to get ISIS...."

Clinton looks weird with that big fake smile whenever Trump says something ridiculous, but Trump looked really creeping stalking her in the background when she spoke.

No really good zingers from Clinton this time.

I do have to give him mad props for this

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1tgThKUqV8


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 10, 2016, 11:04:59 AM
I gotta say that while I don't want that maniac (Trump) anywhere near the nuclear button, Clinton seems hell bent on starting a war with Russia.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 10, 2016, 01:45:25 PM
I thought the tone was strangely understated from both, although the things being said were extraordinary. In past debates, there were strong accusations that candidates had avoided the draft, blurred lines between business and government, invested in unfriendly countries and so on, but we have never seen a candidate asked on stage whether he had molested women and the other candidate accused of covering up crimes (though, admittedly, more than one candidate was accused of these things off-stage). But these things didn't seem as shocking as they should. It was as though, having already heard them so many times before the debate, they didn't have so much effect when they were recited one more time. The exception was the jail threat, which did seem shocking.

It is amazing that Trump can flat-out lie so many times in front of the whole world, and get away with it. His campaign will be able to stagger on but, as the front-runner, consolidating her lead suits Clinton, so a no-winner debate is fine.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 10, 2016, 02:11:24 PM
I watched it on Fox, and I pretty much agreed with what some guy called Krauthammer said.

He felt it was basically a draw, but it's a win for Trump, because of how bad things looked for him before the debate.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: titaniumbean on October 10, 2016, 02:19:48 PM
how can it be considered a win just because the bar is set so unbelievably pathetically low. the fact he didn't molest her on stage = win.

America and the world are the big losers here. no one wins.

2 party system just seems better and better the more this farce goes on.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 10, 2016, 02:22:47 PM
Wasn't sure if I'd find it, but here he is

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNOkcLzzCMM

No idea who the bloke is, but thought it was a good summary.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: titaniumbean on October 10, 2016, 02:29:15 PM
The onion is a more accurate source of news than Fox  rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 10, 2016, 02:32:25 PM
Wasn't sure if I'd find it, but here he is

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNOkcLzzCMM

No idea who the bloke is, but thought it was a good summary.

Solid take from an even more solid surname.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 10, 2016, 02:33:02 PM
The onion is a more accurate source of news than Fox  rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao

So you disagree with what the fella in the video was saying?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: titaniumbean on October 10, 2016, 03:25:00 PM
The onion is a more accurate source of news than Fox  rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao

So you disagree with what the fella in the video was saying?

no (I haven't watched it) why would I watch something on fox  ;dingdell;


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on October 10, 2016, 03:26:31 PM
Clinton seems hell bent on starting a war with Russia.

Who cares, the other guy said he likes beautiful women and THAT, will not be tolerated.

MAKE WAR, NOT LOVE


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: titaniumbean on October 10, 2016, 03:27:19 PM
the onion is all together too prescient sometimes-

this was 2003.

http://www.theonion.com/multiblogpost/this-war-will-destabilize-the-entire-mideast-regio-11534


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 10, 2016, 03:33:23 PM
The onion is a more accurate source of news than Fox  rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao

So you disagree with what the fella in the video was saying?

no (I haven't watched it) why would I watch something on fox  ;dingdell;

Yeah pet peeve of mine, dismissing an argument because of who made it or where it was made is what politicians do. Nowt against you of course but I just think it ruins enjoyable debates like the ones we have here.





Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 10, 2016, 03:36:00 PM
The onion is a more accurate source of news than Fox  rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao

I went with watching the debates on Fox, because they're who you would expect to side with Trump.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: nirvana on October 10, 2016, 03:45:10 PM
how can it be considered a win just because the bar is set so unbelievably pathetically low. the fact he didn't molest her on stage = win.

America and the world are the big losers here. no one wins.

2 party system just seems better and better the more this farce goes on.

Very mild rant all things considered titters.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: muckthenuts on October 10, 2016, 04:18:43 PM
If you watched the whole thing i'm sure you'll enjoy this:

http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/10/second-presidential-debate.html


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 10, 2016, 04:31:13 PM
If you watched the whole thing i'm sure you'll enjoy this:

http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/10/second-presidential-debate.html

Very good :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 10, 2016, 04:41:10 PM
Rasmussen has a big GOP lean in its polling base, so this is a biggie

Clinton 45 (+7)
Trump 38
Johnson 7
Stein 2

A 6 point shift toward Clinton since Friday

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct10


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: titaniumbean on October 10, 2016, 04:47:51 PM
The onion is a more accurate source of news than Fox  rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao

So you disagree with what the fella in the video was saying?

no (I haven't watched it) why would I watch something on fox  ;dingdell;

Yeah pet peeve of mine, dismissing an argument because of who made it or where it was made is what politicians do. Nowt against you of course but I just think it ruins enjoyable debates like the ones we have here.

Clearly there is bias in everything yada yada but it is utterly pointless to do anything but watch fox clips for the comedy moments.

Modern media is an absolute disgrace. The fact there are 'conversations' as to whether it's their job to fact check has gotta be on the most ridiculous things list of 2016 even with all that Trump does. That is very literally the concept of a free press, to keep those in power at bay by providing facts to the unwashed masses.



And yeh Nirvana I don't have the energy to extol my love for both candidates. I am not a fan of Clinton or the same families always being in charge but i'd vote for her every day of the week over someone 1/10th as scummy as the Drumpf. This really should just be a massive twist to the Truman show.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on October 10, 2016, 05:15:06 PM
If you watched the whole thing i'm sure you'll enjoy this:

http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/10/second-presidential-debate.html

This is incredible and I'm not even half way through. Thank you.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 10, 2016, 05:28:51 PM
Speaker Ryan tells House GOP he will not defend or campaign with Trump, members should focus on best for them in their districts.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 10, 2016, 06:03:06 PM
Two-way in new natl NBC/WSJ (conducted after Fri news but before debate)

HRC 52
Trump 38

Was Clinton +7 in Sept


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 10, 2016, 06:11:39 PM
 Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538

Should point out that the NBC/WSJ poll used a pretty small sample size, and has generally had good numbers for Clinton. But, yeah......the "tape isn't hurting Trump!" meme, which always depended on a tortured reading of the data, isn't holding up based on today's polls.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 10, 2016, 06:15:18 PM
The onion is a more accurate source of news than Fox  rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao

So you disagree with what the fella in the video was saying?

no (I haven't watched it) why would I watch something on fox  ;dingdell;

Yeah pet peeve of mine, dismissing an argument because of who made it or where it was made is what politicians do. Nowt against you of course but I just think it ruins enjoyable debates like the ones we have here.

Clearly there is bias in everything yada yada but it is utterly pointless to do anything but watch fox clips for the comedy moments.

Modern media is an absolute disgrace. The fact there are 'conversations' as to whether it's their job to fact check has gotta be on the most ridiculous things list of 2016 even with all that Trump does. That is very literally the concept of a free press, to keep those in power at bay by providing facts to the unwashed masses.



And yeh Nirvana I don't have the energy to extol my love for both candidates. I am not a fan of Clinton or the same families always being in charge but i'd vote for her every day of the week over someone 1/10th as scummy as the Drumpf. This really should just be a massive twist to the Truman show.


Yeah, Fox is great for comedy. The mind-sets of some of their hosts and guest contributors are hard to believe, but they are usually quite entertaining. They're not all mad. Some of the hosts are way out right, but some like Kelly or Kurtz seem more centrist. I quite like Megyn Kelly, who seems a bit out-of-place there sometimes. The hatred between her and Hannity has spilled into public view a couple of times, so something might give soon. See at 35 secs, where she differentiates him from "the journalists in this room".

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTbpOv_95_A


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: titaniumbean on October 10, 2016, 06:23:15 PM
They only seem centrist because of the positions of the others.

Have enjoyed the Kelly Hannity spat. I've never like Kelly but she's come across really well, likely because Hannity is such an incredibly impossible bellend. He's more extreme than an onion caricature.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 10, 2016, 07:24:16 PM
What was going through Bill's mind during the debate?

(https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/styles/story_medium/public/thumbnails/image/2016/10/10/14/closeup.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 10, 2016, 07:51:22 PM
What was going through Bill's mind during the debate?

(https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/styles/story_medium/public/thumbnails/image/2016/10/10/14/closeup.jpg)

Bet he never thought he would be part of a reality show where two maniacs debate whether he is a rapist and the winner becomes the leader of the free world.

That's kinda what I get from his face.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 10, 2016, 11:24:02 PM
Keep thinking that these two are growing into one person:

(http://www.globalnewscast.com/images/Clinton_smiling_after_surgery-reverse.jpg)(http://static1.squarespace.com/static/54f7c017e4b0ceb22a706c44/550d8815e4b0e53e03c4dd72/550d8b5de4b0e53e03c5699d/1426951005977/dick-van-dyke.jpg?format=original)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 11, 2016, 11:15:03 AM
Donald Trump made 33 false claims at the debate (Clinton 6)

according to

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuZ45MNWIAERicb.jpg)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuZ45MNWcAAjac8.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 11, 2016, 11:17:42 AM
'This is on you': John Oliver ridicules Republicans over Trump groping tape

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2016/oct/10/john-oliver-trump-groping-tape-last-week-tonight?CMP=twt_gu


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on October 11, 2016, 11:31:41 AM
(https://i0.wp.com/hw.infowars.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/101016email.jpg?zoom=2)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 11, 2016, 01:08:07 PM
Speaker Ryan tells House GOP he will not defend or campaign with Trump, members should focus on best for them in their districts.

this is what he is facing

Congressional preference in new NBC/WSJ: D+7 -- 49%-42%

That is the highest Dem advantage in the NBC/WSJ poll since Oct '13 (gvt shutdown)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 11, 2016, 03:05:38 PM
Here's what that NBC/WSJ result looks like in context. Uncharted territory for a Big Five pollster (also major outlier for time being)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuaywIvXgAASRkt.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 11, 2016, 06:24:25 PM
Statement from Warren Buffet:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cua32mzWIAE1NKl.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 11, 2016, 08:03:45 PM
(http://s7d2.scene7.com/is/image/TWCNews/tictac_jpg?wid=640&hei=360&fmt=png-alpha&fit=stretch,1&)


Tic Tac USA issued a statemint to show that it's not pleased about being dragged into the mess.

Best response to Skittles and Tic Tac distancing themselves - "Wait'll you hear what @Snickers has to come out and say next week"


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 12, 2016, 05:36:38 AM
(https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/s526x395/14650136_10207483843149854_2251700498158195915_n.jpg?oh=a9030d08cd23e7265a2c1718ea2d27c1&oe=58A2EE98)

:D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on October 12, 2016, 03:54:48 PM
These Trump surrogates really are the gift that keeps on giving

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/donald-trump-betsy-mccaughey-beyhive-beyonce-a7356961.html?cmpid=facebook-post


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on October 12, 2016, 05:51:30 PM
Hypocrisy isn't even a thing anymore

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGJIB5cO0cQ


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on October 13, 2016, 01:18:32 AM
Russell Brand is back from a long break with his take on the second Presidential debate.

Fantastic stuff.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rix8sBPMTj0


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Woodsey on October 13, 2016, 02:22:43 AM
Fantastic? lol Can't see that, Brand is a twat, not as big an arsehole as Trump, but a total twat in his own unique way nonetheless, I simply can't take him seriously, although I think he desperately wants to be taken seriously on political stuff these days, yeah right mate  rotflmfao

Had to laugh when he started talking about the the 'Phatic' stuff. Jesus effing Christ is there is a bloke who speaks more meaningless bullshit gibberish in between a decent joke every five minutes than Brand?  rotflmfao rotflmfao rotflmfao

Fair enough he wasn't like that on this vid but that is his trademark.......


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 13, 2016, 04:43:43 AM
The election is looking lost for Trump.

                        Clinton  Trump
Forecast            346      192                 Clinton +154

Clinton Best      381      157                 Clinton +224
Trump Best       272      266                 Clinton    +6

http://electiongraphs.com/


However, his position may be even more ominous than that............


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 13, 2016, 05:03:09 AM
It's slipping away from Trump even more.

Utah and Alaska are usually safe Republican States (neither has voted Democrat in the last 50 years), but polls just in show them looking vulnerable.

30-40% wins are standard for Republicans in Utah. Romney won by 73% to 25% last time, the biggest winning margin in any State, not just in that election, but for anyone in any State since 1984. Trump's crudeness and lack of religion have never been liked much by the Mormons, but he had leads of 12-15% in polls a month ago. In a poll out today, Clinton and Johnson are exactly where they have been throughout, but Trump has lost his lead entirely to Independent Evan McMullin (from Utah and, like Romney, a Mormon). Suddenly, Utah is a three-way marginal.

26% Trump
26% Clinton
22% McMullin
14% Johnson
  1% Stein


Republicans generally win Alaska by about 20%. Polls in early Sep showed Trump ahead by 8%, 10% and 18%. Now, two released last weekend showed him with much-reduced leads, again losing support to third parties:

37% Trump
34% Clinton
10% Johnson
  2% Stein

36% Trump
31% Clinton
18% Johnson
  6% Stein

These polls were all taken between the two debates and before the release of the Trump tape. While it seems unthinkable that he wouldn't win either of these States (though the outflow to McMullin in Utah might continue), they might be a foretaste of worse-than-expected support to come in States he should win but which could get away from him. McMullin is a Republican who left to oppose Trump - it's not inconceivable that Republican voters nationwide might suddenly see him as an acceptable recipient of their vote.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Doobs on October 13, 2016, 08:51:15 AM
Hypocrisy isn't even a thing anymore

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGJIB5cO0cQ

Research isn't even a thing anymore


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 13, 2016, 12:42:29 PM
ISIS will take over the USA if Clinton wins.

http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/trump-isis-will-take-over-this-country-if-hillary-clinton-wins/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 13, 2016, 01:14:16 PM
Effect of the Trump tape:

One group carried out polls in Wisconsin over the weekend after the tape came out.

On Thursday, Trump was one point ahead (admittedly, that was dubious as Clinton was never going to lose Wisconsin). By Sunday, she was nineteen points ahead in the same poll.

It is depressing that all the other terrible things said by Trump washed over people's heads, but this relatively trivial thing makes such a difference. At least it means that the madman won't be in charge of the world.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/10/12/press-release-title/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 13, 2016, 01:33:05 PM
At a Trump rally:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CucUD8uW8AAI3kF.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: neeko on October 13, 2016, 02:01:30 PM
I see trump has got his lawyers to send a letter to he New York Times, threatening them with a libel suit. I hope they reply with "we refer the gentleman to Arkell v Pressdram"





Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 13, 2016, 05:07:11 PM
Time magazine has updated its August cover for this week

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CupefhaXEAAqVZi.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 13, 2016, 06:15:10 PM
The New York Times ‏@nytimes

Our presidential forecast, updated http://nyti.ms/2ehBz1l 


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on October 13, 2016, 09:43:12 PM
Mint Trav, which is the first state to declare on election night usually?

And roughly what time GMT?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on October 13, 2016, 11:05:27 PM
..


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 14, 2016, 03:53:14 AM
The Donald probably going to have another 3am breakdown after this.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7e3QKKOp50


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on October 14, 2016, 04:14:03 AM
One of the basket of deplorables.

(http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CusJ0VWWYAAnWUS.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 14, 2016, 04:54:37 AM
Mint Trav, which is the first state to declare on election night usually?

And roughly what time GMT?

Most States stop voting at 7 or 8pm, so exit polls will be appearing from 7pm Eastern Time (midnight GMT). People voting late on the West Coast will already know the Eastern exit polls, and may know who will be President before they vote.

They are quite quick at counting. Indiana should be first - it was already one of the quickest, but this time it is closing at 6pm. Last time, results were known for Vermont and Kentucky within twenty minutes and South Carolina, West Virginia and Indiana were done well before 8pm Eastern Time (1am here). From there, it generally works East to West, but not in an orderly fashion. The winner is usually known by about 11pm ET (4am here), but I think it will be considerably earlier this time.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 14, 2016, 05:22:35 AM
Last time, Romney gave his concession speech just before 1am ET (6am GMT).
(https://nationalpostnews.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/usa-campaign_-26.jpg?quality=65&strip=all&w=940&h=638)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 14, 2016, 09:14:01 AM
NY Times lawyers

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuqmVYcWIAAPPve.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 14, 2016, 01:50:55 PM
The Donald probably going to have another 3am breakdown after this.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7e3QKKOp50


might she run in 2020, 2024? going to be a formidable candidate if she does.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 14, 2016, 01:57:13 PM
The Donald probably going to have another 3am breakdown after this.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7e3QKKOp50


might she run in 2020, 2024? going to be a formidable candidate if she does.

I actually had a look after seeing that, but couldn't find a price or any markets anywhere.

If the republicans that ran this year are in again, you'd have to think she'd have a shot.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 14, 2016, 02:10:07 PM
ladbrokes 2020

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cuuid_5WEAEGkSB.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 14, 2016, 02:25:14 PM
Shows how awake I am at that time of the morning...

Might be worth a cheeky tenner, if MintTrav gives us the nod :)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 14, 2016, 05:00:37 PM
Lol. I think you'd be wasting your money. 2020 has to be way too soon, even 2024. She has never held political office, so if she ran her opponents would (rightly) make much of her inexperience.

There probably is an opportunity for the betting types. The list of Democrats looks pretty uninformed and I assume you would get higher returns on other names. I'm surprised Hillary is almost even money. I would think it's very likely she'll do one term, either because of age or her baggage, which can only increase. If Kaine becomes President before 2020, he would have a good shot at winning. Otherwise, he doesn't seem to have the stature. If you rule out Sanders due to age, the list has only got one viable Democrat.  

There are several up-and-coming in the party, though it is impossible to know who will shine and who will go off the rails over the next four years. I would say that spreading your money at the high prices available could be a good strategy. Likely front-runners for 2020 could be Cory Booker, Andrew Cuomo, Kristen Gillibrand or either of the Castro twins, Julian & Joaquin. If you want a Sanders type, Elizabeth Warren is the obvious option, and she is a national figure now, probably better known than any of the others (71 next election, though). Those are the top tier. Not quite at that level yet, but could come through by then, Amy Klobuchar (got to speak at the Convention straight after Bill C, which matters more than you would think), Xavier Becerra, Deval Patrick. If Warren is too old, there are a few other possible Progressives. There are several other possibles, but I don't want to put a long boring list of people you have never heard of. It might be worth doing though, if the bookies are so out of whack that they have one of the favourites, Booker, at 50/1 and have no-hopers like Sanders and Obama at shorter odds. What price would they offer on Julian Castro?
(http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/120904101556-navarrette-castro-brothers-horizontal-large-gallery.jpg)
Julian and Joaquin (or maybe Joaquin and Julian?) Castro

There could be a very long list of viable candidates on the Republican side. The obvious name missing from that list is Scott Walker, but Nikki Haley (first Sikh Governor) must have a decent shot.
(http://media2.s-nbcnews.com/j/MSNBC/Components/Video/150710/tdy_lauer_haley_150710.today-inline-vid-featured-tablet.jpg)
Nikki Haley


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 14, 2016, 08:52:43 PM
Bloomberg is reporting that Trump blocked his own campaign from carrying out the usual 'opposition' research into his past. It seems that, at each stage, his main advisors in succession (Stone, Lewandowski, Manafort and Conway) all wanted to do it, but he refused, resulting in the campaign being unprepared for the recent revelations and Kellyanne admitting this week "I don't know what's out there".

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-13/trump-said-to-block-campaign-s-requests-to-do-self-opposition-research

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-12iwmv7IGQ


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 14, 2016, 10:09:43 PM
If you're bored on Monday night, Marco Rubio will be debating for his Senate seat. http://www.wftv.com/news/politics/sen-marco-rubio-us-rep-patrick-murphy-participate-in-coin-toss-ahead-of-debate/455812323

Officially, he is still supporting Trump, but he's trying to do so from as far a distance as possible, for example opening 18 election offices of his own throughout the State instead of the usual joint offices with the Presidential candidate. He is still ahead in the polls and should keep his seat, but it is a wobbly tightrope. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/up-in-the-polls-marco-rubio-keeps-donald-trump-at-a-distance/

The recent WikiLeaks releases show that Clinton's campaign feared Rubio more than anyone, with the potential to be the 2016 version of what Obama did to her. At this point, he is damaged goods on the national stage, but has time to recover before the Presidency comes up again.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 14, 2016, 10:23:19 PM
In 2001, Donald Trump promised on the Howard Stern show that he would donate $10,000 to the Twin Towers Fund.

Today, The New York City Comptroller announced that he never made the payment.

“My office has reviewed the donations made in the nearly 12 months following the attacks – and we didn’t find evidence that he contributed a single cent to the victims, our first responders, and to our city through the Twin Towers Fund” - New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer (a Democrat).

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/nyc-audit-finds-donald-trump-donations-911-months/story?id=42801444

Why now? Indeed. Might become an issue, might blow over.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 15, 2016, 08:49:14 AM
Everyone agrees Clinton is going to win - and they are pretty tightly bunched on the predicted number of college votes.

(http://www.270towin.com/uploads/forecasts_1013.png)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 15, 2016, 10:33:50 AM
The Senate race is more interesting. The Democrats need to take four seats to take control.

There are 34 seats up this year, and 23 of those are dead safe for the incumbents.

Of the 11 competitive seats, Arizona (McCain), Florida (Rubio) and Ohio ain't changing this time.

The Democrats should win back seats they have previously held, but lost, in Wisconsin and Illinois, where Tammy Duckworth is nailed on for Obama's old seat. Duckworth, who was born in Thailand, lost both her legs as a helicopter pilot in Iraq.
(https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--BHNtMeOg--/18es0bym5zgcnjpg.jpg)

That leaves six seats that are toss-ups. The Democrats currently hold one of them (Nevada), but are behind there, so may need to win thtee of the other five Republican-held seats (Indiana, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Missouri, North Carolina). It looks like they are slightly ahead in Indiana but slightly behind in NH, NC and Missouri, with Penn on a knife-edge.

It will be very close but the more Trump fecks up, the more it helps the Democrats inch towards control. If Clinton's advantage turns into a rout, they are likely to get there, but they may get there anyway.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 16, 2016, 12:18:27 PM
Life after Trump: Republicans brace for betrayal and civil war after 2016

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/15/republican-party-after-donald-trump-paul-ryan?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1476541122


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: bergeroo on October 16, 2016, 12:22:34 PM
Everyone agrees Clinton is going to win - and they are pretty tightly bunched on the predicted number of college votes.

(http://www.270towin.com/uploads/forecasts_1013.png)

I've been looking for something to bet on. This one got me interested!

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/democrat-college-votes

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-college-votes


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 17, 2016, 07:12:43 PM
!

Fans walk out of Amy Schumer show after she calls Trump a 'monster'

Around 200 people booed and then left a live show in Tampa, Florida, after the comic criticized the Republican presidential candidate

https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2016/oct/17/amy-schumer-donald-trump-walkout-tampa-florida?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1476722615


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 17, 2016, 07:57:33 PM
Americans trust Republicans on a bunch of key issues. They just don't trust Trump.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-republicans-issues_us_5804bc2ee4b06e047595a03a?7kx4j9k9

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cu_PVmZXYAArQRO.jpg)


given clinton's unpopularity and issues, do you not think the republicans could have put up almost anyone but Trump and have had a fighting chance of winning this?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 17, 2016, 10:29:16 PM
Not sure what's going on with Utah. Following the previous very close poll, two came out with a decent lead for Trump, but today there is a new one which is shows the race wide open:

    12 Oct    13 Oct    16 Oct    17 Oct
    Y2    Monmouth    CBS/YouGov    Rasmussen
Trump    26%    34%    37%    30%
Clinton    26%    28%    20%    28%
McMullin    22%    20%    20%    29%
Johnson    14%    9%    7%    5%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/utah/election_2016_utah_president

Whichever is right, it looks like Utah is in play. Four polls have shown McMullin at 20% or more and two have essentially been three-way ties. This is not supposed to be a battleground State - Trump may lose a State where the Governor, both Senators and all four Representatives are Republicans (admittedly, most of them have disowned him). McMullin has managed to focus the non-mainstream support, with Johnson dropping back. Utah is now, unexpectedly, one of the most difficult to predict.


FiveThirtyEight recently did a piece on how McMullin might become President. In a nutshell, it depends on neither side being able to muster 270 votes if he wins Utah, so the decision passing to the House (the top three names are eligible), and both sides there preferring him to the alternative option (including some Republicans refusing to back Trump). http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Pinchop73 on October 18, 2016, 08:07:56 PM
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IuJGHuIkzY

Stinks


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 18, 2016, 10:33:13 PM
Fascinating (though I thought the parts with the conspiracy-style presentation were a bit silly).

Since yesterday's video, Scott Foval has been sacked and James O'Keefe's booked appearance on Hannity's show has been cancelled by Fox. I don't think these videos would have changed anyone's vote as they are too far removed from the candidate, but it seems odd that they waited til the election was lost to release them. Gives Trump something concrete for tomorrow night though.

They are claiming that YouTube is suppressing the video in the US on the grounds that, apparently, it is trending in the UK but not over there. Another one came out today:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDc8PVCvfKs


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 18, 2016, 11:13:51 PM
The view count has been locked on both videos, haven't budged in two hours.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 19, 2016, 03:13:12 AM
The election is being rigged, says Trump.

That's a pile of crap, said Rubio last night (I paraphrase).

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWPZCOsN2Jo

Amusing to see his opponent trying to associate him with Trump, even though Rubio has done everything he can to keep Donald at a distance, including refusing to appear with him when they have been in the same part of Florida.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 19, 2016, 04:40:54 AM
Major proposals from Trump to shake up Washington:

(http://s11.postimg.org/dnadd1ajn/1476755495091.png)

There may be pros and cons to be discussed and details to be finessed, but most of those are probably improvements, and should have been addressed before now.

Trump has now added another item - term limits for all members of Congress, six years for members of the House and 12 years for members of the Senate. This is likely to be popular, but seems to be very short-sighted - repeatedly churning all the experienced Congressmen and losing all the accumulated knowledge. The effect would be to increase the influence of the lobbyists he wants to control, as one of their sources of power is that they are in the best position to advise new inexperienced Congressmen on procedures, legislation, etc. It's a waste of effort, anyway - the chances of Congress agreeing to it are zero.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 19, 2016, 10:26:30 AM
Michael Moore to release surprise Donald Trump documentary

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/oct/18/michael-moore-surprise-donald-trump-documentary?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1476807915


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 19, 2016, 10:31:28 AM
Why do people dislike Hillary Clinton? The story goes far back

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/18/hillary-clinton-why-hate-unlikeable-us-election?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1476789582


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 19, 2016, 12:54:43 PM
Can't be good when one of your main allies is calling you stupid.

Newt was one of Trump's final three for VP, with Christie and Pence. He's speaking more freely these days, first calling Trump pathetic on Fox for fighting with Ryan instead of Clinton:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrbrC-o7o2o

and now this:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9BdcEZItgw


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: hector62 on October 19, 2016, 02:28:25 PM
Paddy Power are paying out on Clinton.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 19, 2016, 02:34:08 PM
For tonight's debate, on the one hand Trump has nothing to lose so can afford to shake things up. On the other, attacking the opposition hasn't worked out too well, and he does better when he sticks to the issues.

Clinton just needs to pass through without major disaster and mark time til the election.


Trump's guests for tonight's debate:

- The mother of one of the four Americans killed in the US Embassy in Benghazi, who blames Hillary Clinton for his death and spoke at the Republican conference.

- Malik Obama. Sounds familiar? Barack's brother is a Trump supporter.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 19, 2016, 02:36:40 PM
#VoteNobody

(http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuaYlV5XYAA5K3q.jpg)


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtYAyiYXYAAh1Nh.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 19, 2016, 03:43:24 PM
(http://www.qwipster.net/brewstersmillions.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Woodsey on October 19, 2016, 04:03:19 PM
Paddy Power are paying out on Clinton.

Do they ever get it wrong when they do this?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: hector62 on October 19, 2016, 04:08:03 PM
Paddy Power are paying out on Clinton.

Do they ever get it wrong when they do this?
[/quot

Yes. Betfred paid out on Man Utd one year when they were caught by Arsenal, or maybe the other way round.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 19, 2016, 04:21:30 PM
Paddy Power are paying out on Clinton.

Do they ever get it wrong when they do this?

Yep, in fact they are probably well aware it could go tits up for them and paddypower are the kings of spinning this into free publicity. There'll be a bunch of mainstream news items this week about how paddypower are paying early, and if Trump wins there will be a few which mention paddypower wrongly paying early.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 19, 2016, 10:26:16 PM
(https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/nintchdbpict000275726385.jpg?w=960)

They both arrived at McCarron early today for the Vegas showdown. Both planes are leased, though Clinton's is from a third party and Trump's is rented from a Trump company, as are many of the services purchased by the campaign. He was already using the plane before he started running for office, but since this all started he has been invoicing the costs to the campaign. Trump gave up on self-funding the campaign and started taking large donations around May. Since then, campaign costs have exploded.

Up til May, $3.7m had been charged for the plane, but the cost seems to have increased, as the charge just for the month of July was $495k.

That increase is nothing compared with the uplift in the charge for office accommodation and staff at Trump Tower, which increased to almost five times the previous amount. Until May (ie when Trump was funding the campaign), the charge for office space was $35k / month. Filings show that the rent charged grew to $73k in May, $111k in June and $170k in July, though staff numbers didn't increase. There have also been a few hundred thousand dollars for use of Trump hotels and golf courses, which was a low amount previously.

Trump suggested in the past that he might be the only person to run for President and make a profit from it. He could be right. It is hard to see that the increased charges are anything other than opportunism - ie Trump is ripping off his own donors.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: aaron1867 on October 19, 2016, 10:34:34 PM
Not sure if I'm the only one who think this, but do people actually think Trump would carry out these silly things he has said? He seems tonne saying things that people want to hear. I actually despise Hilary, and I'm really not bothered if Trump actually be one president. Dare I say it.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 19, 2016, 10:37:50 PM
Paddy Power are paying out on Clinton.

Do they ever get it wrong when they do this?

Yep, in fact they are probably well aware it could go tits up for them and paddypower are the kings of spinning this into free publicity. There'll be a bunch of mainstream news items this week about how paddypower are paying early, and if Trump wins there will be a few which mention paddypower wrongly paying early.

Lot of publicity, for a few hundred quid in bets.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 20, 2016, 01:00:59 AM
Donald Trump told us earlier in the year that he was going to redraw the electoral map, meaning that he would be competitive in States that have been assumed Democrat until now - New York, Cali, etc. He named seven that he would revive for Republicans, presumably because he is a New Yorker with a populist attraction, and did well in the Primaries.

Megyn Kelly ran through them last night, along with how far Hillary is ahead in them, and it showed how big a miss he has had: NY 20%, N Jer 12%, Cali 20%, Oregon 19%, Illinois 15%, Wash St 14%, Mich 10%.

He wouldn't have been expected to win those if he hadn't said he would, but he has also been smashed in the marginal Dem States he needed to take.

Instead the battles are in the swing Rep States, and he is losing most of those. Not only that, but strong Rep States are looking shaky. Arizona now seems more likely to fall to Hillary than to be held. Georgia, Utah and even Texas should be strong, but are looking wobbly.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 20, 2016, 01:45:08 AM
A bunch of polls came out today. Most noticeable were:

Arizona:
43% Clinton
38% Trump

And get this:

Utah
31% McMullin
27% Trump
24% Clinton

There could be a knock-on effect from McMullin's success in Utah. He is not even included in many polls in other States, but he could do well in States with a lot of Mormons, eg Idaho, Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado. Forget Johnson - McMullin may be the home for their vote that anti-Trump conservatives are looking for. 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/aviksaroy/2016/10/18/the-conservative-alternative-to-donald-trump-isnt-gary-johnson-its-evan-mcmullin/#32b02b2b7b23

If there is a rush to McMullin, the votes will come from Trump and could be the balance that loses him some States, making a landslide that much more likely.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on October 20, 2016, 01:51:54 AM
Starts at 2 tonight right?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 20, 2016, 02:12:52 AM
Starts at 2 tonight right?

Yeah, 2am mate.

I'm watching on Fox again.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 20, 2016, 04:36:02 AM
The moderator was better this time, lol.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 20, 2016, 04:49:13 AM
This felt much better, dealing more with issues than personal attacks and not dominated by their suitability to be President. It was more like a normal political debate - credit to Chris Wallace for framing it like that.

She didn't answer the pay-for-play question, stretching out a long waffle about the Clinton Foundation and Haiti. Should have addressed the question, or Wallace should have brought her back to it.

Trump finally doing some standard prep and mock debates showed, with a better and more dignified performance, much calmer and more rational, though he lost credit by shouting down both his opponent and the moderator, and slipped up by making some unnecessary asides that looked bad.

Clinton was on top throughout imo, so a clear win on points for her. Trump held his own in the earlier parts, but did gradually deteriorate, while she didn't.

One major error by Trump, saying he might not accept the result, which will be the headline.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 20, 2016, 05:11:15 AM
My main impression of these debates is that there isn't enough time to discuss any of the issues in enough detail. It would be much more satisfying to see each of them put through a long tough interview where they could be pinned down and pressed longer on the issues they should be giving proper answers on. I'd be quite happy to give up one of the debates for that.

She only needed to tie (though imo she won). He needed to score heavily, but never landed the hits he really needed. He also needed to offer something to Independents and disaffected Republicans, but didn't really display anything to attract people who were not already voting for him.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 20, 2016, 10:51:02 AM
interesting, and brexit parallels

A new split bwn those benefiting from globalisation & the culturally/econ. 'left behind'. Nate Cohn for NYT

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/20/upshot/the-new-blue-and-red-educational-split-is-replacing-the-culture-war.html?_r=0


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 20, 2016, 10:52:37 AM
The traps Clinton set last night

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/19/13340828/hillary-clinton-debate-trump-won


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MANTIS01 on October 20, 2016, 11:45:22 AM
Clinton handled herself well and her diction is more credible for sure. It's just every time I see her walk on stage I find myself questioning her physicality. That episode where she was held up by aides before collapsing into the car seems indicative of Clinton generally and her whole campaign. But I guess the aides will now carry her across the line...kinda like Derek Redmond's dad in the olympics. And that's the thing, I've considered all the issues and the content of the debates but deep down all I want to see is Clinton run the 400m. I mean it doesn't need to be quick but get yourself down the track love and run 400m because I don't think you can.

Perhaps it's because the intellect of the candidates isn't so great that physical is playing a part in my mind. Or perhaps I just don't care enough but I guess my stupid opinion is why the electorate isn't taken seriously these days. Even so I still wanna see that 400m. I mean Putin is all bare-chested and wrestling bears in the woods which must inspire confidence in his people. Petty as it might be image is always paramount for voters cos we are human beings like.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RED-DOG on October 20, 2016, 12:08:29 PM
Clinton in the woods, bare chested, wrasseling a bear?

I missed the debate but I'd stay up until 2am to see that.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: hector62 on October 20, 2016, 01:25:59 PM
I think they should have a 100m race, followed by a live IQ test.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DropTheHammer on October 20, 2016, 01:49:46 PM
MintTrav thanks for all these updates and info-it really is appreciated and I find lots of it fascinating. Loved the info about Trump ripping off his donors! Quell Surprise.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DropTheHammer on October 20, 2016, 01:51:52 PM
And lol @ Trump claiming it will be rigged. That's what the Brexiteers thought! Do we think he honestly believes this, or is it some attempt at psychology to get more of his lot to actually vote?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 20, 2016, 01:56:55 PM
How the 2016 US Presidential odds looked the day after Obama won in 2012:

5 Clinton
10 Rubio
12 Ryan
16 Biden
16 Bush
100 Trump
500 Sanders


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 20, 2016, 05:28:34 PM
Hillary has been stretching her lead, from 4-5 points last week to 6-8 points in the last couple of days. Yesterday, Bloomberg published a poll showing her now 9 points ahead. Even more significantly, for the first time, it showed her ahead with men and with voters without a college degree, two groups that Trump had locked up til now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-19/national-poll


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 20, 2016, 05:33:12 PM
Trump is 87% certain to win

On the other hand, Farage was doing the rounds yesterday, telling journalists that Trump and Brexit are the same thing (as Trump himself has been saying a lot lately), and that the polls mean squat because Brexit was -10% on the day, but won by 4%.

This guy sets out very well the reasons why polls are often wrong - http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/campaign/301220-you-cant-trust-polls-clintons-winning-but-our-polling-methods-are

He says that the polls are 'bunk'. "The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don't reflect actions. They're about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can't tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts."

His forecast is based on Primary results, and he says that his model forecasts the correct outcome for every election from 1912 to 2012, except for 1960. His forecast for 2016? Donald Trump is at least 87% certain to beat Hillary Clinton. You heard it here first.

http://primarymodel.com/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on October 20, 2016, 05:39:06 PM
It worries me tremendously how the media seem to be behaving like Clinton has already won. Surefire way to stick a curve ball in.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 20, 2016, 05:39:27 PM
On the other hand, Farage was doing the rounds yesterday, telling journalists that Trump and Brexit are the same thing (as Trump himself has been saying a lot lately), and that the polls mean squat because Brexit was -10% on the day, but won by 4%.

I'm pretty clueless with what makes a good poll but I largely agree with this, America are way more populist than us, if we can vote for Brexit, they certainly still can vote for Trump. I'm a little less confident since 'Grab the pussy-gate' but he seems to have weathered the storm a little. IMO anyone voting for Trump before the debates probably still is, he just hasn't converted any undecideds.

@Mint - what's your take on that? do you think Trump has managed to deflect a bit of 'Grab the pussy-gate' and the other allegations? I think any other candidate we would still be talking about it, but everyone is talking about other Trumpy stuff now.




Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 20, 2016, 06:15:37 PM
On the other hand, Farage was doing the rounds yesterday, telling journalists that Trump and Brexit are the same thing (as Trump himself has been saying a lot lately), and that the polls mean squat because Brexit was -10% on the day, but won by 4%.

I'm pretty clueless with what makes a good poll but I largely agree with this, America are way more populist than us, if we can vote for Brexit, they certainly still can vote for Trump. I'm a little less confident since 'Grab the pussy-gate' but he seems to have weathered the storm a little. IMO anyone voting for Trump before the debates probably still is, he just hasn't converted any undecideds.

@Mint - what's your take on that? do you think Trump has managed to deflect a bit of 'Grab the pussy-gate' and the other allegations? I think any other candidate we would still be talking about it, but everyone is talking about other Trumpy stuff now.

I think the bit I've highlighted is spot on. He lost some votes from reluctant Republican supporters, but his core support won't be affected.

I couldn't really understand why people supported Trump until I read some comments the other day, where a Trump supporter explained that they don't care about the issues that people raise about him.

They don't care that he is petulant, a boor or a habitual liar. They don't care how rude he is, whether he makes lewd remarks or how childishly he behaves. They don't care whether he bullies his employees or other people, whether he stiffs contractors or pays tax. They don't care whether he might be racist, how he regards or treats women or any of the other isms that have been directed at him. They are not necessarily racist, etc themselves, but they don't care whether he is or not. They don't care whether he was for or against the Iraq War. They don't care much about what happens in the Middle East, nor about resultant refugees.

They do care about the economy, immigration, security, their own taxes and healthcare. They perceive that there are problems in those areas and they believe that Trump will address them.

Where he has lost out is with Independents and moderate Republicans, who could have been persuaded to hold their nose and vote for him, but he never gave them enough reasons to do so.

I think it's a shame that the women thing has drowned out the real issues lately, maybe even secured the election. I agree with Trump's supporters to the extent that how nice or unpleasant a person someone is doesn't affect whether they make good decisions on the economy, security, foreign affairs, etc.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Doobs on October 20, 2016, 06:20:37 PM
On the other hand, Farage was doing the rounds yesterday, telling journalists that Trump and Brexit are the same thing (as Trump himself has been saying a lot lately), and that the polls mean squat because Brexit was -10% on the day, but won by 4%.

I'm pretty clueless with what makes a good poll but I largely agree with this, America are way more populist than us, if we can vote for Brexit, they certainly still can vote for Trump. I'm a little less confident since 'Grab the pussy-gate' but he seems to have weathered the storm a little. IMO anyone voting for Trump before the debates probably still is, he just hasn't converted any undecideds.

@Mint - what's your take on that? do you think Trump has managed to deflect a bit of 'Grab the pussy-gate' and the other allegations? I think any other candidate we would still be talking about it, but everyone is talking about other Trumpy stuff now.




I don't think Farage is telling the truth here (and boy has he got form). There were several polls that had Brexit as the winner.  They were trending that way throughout the campaign too.  The only blip was right after Jo Cox's death.  And they were swinging back towards the Brexiteers from there to polling day.  

I am not saying that polls are always accurate, but nor are they often very far out.  Seems absurd to point to a 87% chance if a Trump success.  I wouldn't put anyone off the bet though, as the Hillary support draws heavily from the non voting classes.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 20, 2016, 06:24:36 PM
I read yesterday William Hill said that the most money has gone on Hillary, but the greater number of small bets has gone on Trump, which by all accounts was the exact same thing that happened with Brexit.

I know a poker player who has put his entire bankroll and liferoll on Clinton winning, which given anything could happen in the next few weeks including her getting ill, some wikileaks scandal or an assassination attempt, seems particularly stupid.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 20, 2016, 06:54:29 PM
Trump: “I will totally accept the results of this great and historic presidential election… if I win"

What a joker


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on October 20, 2016, 11:27:51 PM
I read yesterday William Hill said that the most money has gone on Hillary, but the greater number of small bets has gone on Trump, which by all accounts was the exact same thing that happened with Brexit.

That's because Hillary/Remain were the odds-on shots in a two-runner race - that side will always get the volume of money (cos you need to lump more on to win a decent chunk innit?)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 21, 2016, 04:19:01 AM
In contrast with last night's bitter debate, Hillary had a pleasant dinner engagement tonight.

If I had asked you who you think she had dinner with, how many guesses would you have needed before you got it right?

(https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/161020-donald-trump-al-smith-feature.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=664&h=441&crop=1)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 21, 2016, 04:53:16 AM
I'd want the close protection officers between them, not that old boy :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 21, 2016, 05:34:42 AM
The Donald's best debate performance yet

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZnlz-b2NnY


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 21, 2016, 03:39:13 PM
The Al Smith Dinner just before the election is a ritual that has been going on for a while. It is named after the first Catholic to run for President and is now presided over by his great-grandson, Al 4. The most expensive tables last night were $150k for ten places, but you could pick up an individual seat for as little as $2,500 if you were prepared to sit at the back.

Some previous dinners:

(https://static01.nyt.com/images/2012/10/19/nyregion/19smith_337/19smith_337-jumbo.jpg)
(https://static01.nyt.com/images/promos/politics/blog/20081016smith.533.jpg)
(http://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/journalstar.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/8/46/846020f2-8403-58d9-9465-069bbdf410b8/58093b88822e3.image.jpg?resize=750%2C458)
(http://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/stltoday.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/c/c5/cc56638b-6c73-597d-b904-7baa8f8d59ee/58093ae5dcd77.image.jpg?resize=1200%2C796)
(http://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/stltoday.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/5/79/5796b6ab-8198-563e-b35e-f621d8b3b646/58093ae23315c.image.jpg?resize=1200%2C1111)


The speeches from last night's dinner are well worth watching if you have time. Both Trump and Clinton have some cracking lines, though both also have some terrible unfunny ones that fall totally flat. Donald had a great start and middle but then really judged it wrong and went off the rails after that. Don't skip the introductions by Al Smith, who was the star of the night (shared with Fox anchor Maria Bartiromo in the red dress).

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGgxr4Sxoas


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 21, 2016, 06:11:39 PM
US Election results unfold live in the UK on BBC One & BBC News -

US 2016: Election Night in America 8th Nov http://bbc.in/2eOEUW1

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvTcT6sWEAQHtPh.jpg:large)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 21, 2016, 06:51:18 PM
Was doing alright until he got to corruption, and then it was like we were back to the debates.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 21, 2016, 07:13:30 PM
Clinton knows how to take the piss out of herself, which helps when she then goes into the 2nd half of her speech, and steaming into Donald.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 21, 2016, 07:37:34 PM
Donald J. TrumpVerified account
‏@realDonaldTrump
The results are in on the final debate and it is almost unanimous, I WON! Thank you, these are very exciting times.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 21, 2016, 07:51:04 PM
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymGENUjIdIg

:D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on October 22, 2016, 09:13:00 AM
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymGENUjIdIg

:D

Honestly don't think I've loved a politician more in my lifetime than Obama.

What a guy.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Graham C on October 22, 2016, 09:25:29 AM
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymGENUjIdIg

:D

Honestly don't think I've loved a politician more in my lifetime than Obama.

What a guy.

Agreed


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Longines on October 22, 2016, 12:14:17 PM
Just awesome. Mint, are there any clues what he is likely to do next? Most ex-presidents seem to drop off the radar but I wonder if this time it might be different?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 22, 2016, 02:44:30 PM
Just awesome. Mint, are there any clues what he is likely to do next? Most ex-presidents seem to drop off the radar but I wonder if this time it might be different?

First Husband, in 2024 :)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RED-DOG on October 22, 2016, 02:46:07 PM
Just awesome. Mint, are there any clues what he is likely to do next? Most ex-presidents seem to drop off the radar but I wonder if this time it might be different?

First Husband, in 2024 :)


Assuming America still exists.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 22, 2016, 02:49:45 PM
Just awesome. Mint, are there any clues what he is likely to do next? Most ex-presidents seem to drop off the radar but I wonder if this time it might be different?

The usual next job is to start doing speeches for $1 million a pop for all the people who have you campaign donations over the years.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 23, 2016, 08:51:59 PM
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHsZxJlxHYw

The Donald sounds pretty good in this compilation.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 24, 2016, 06:20:37 AM
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHsZxJlxHYw

The Donald sounds pretty good in this compilation.

Sounds good, but I would give the credit to the production team for making him come across better, cos this video is full of the lies and semi-truths typical of his whole disgraceful campaign. I would concede that there is massive interdependency between big business and politics and the Clintons are enmeshed in all that. But I believe they are trying to improve the USA and the world and have done a decent job of it so far. To get anything done requires a compromise, with others and with your own beliefs, and as soon as you do that, you leave the door open for opportunists like Trump to take easy and nasty swipes at you. The alternative, though, is not making any progress. Bill Clinton has been Compromiser-in-Chief, leaving many opportunities for attack, but look at what he has achieved for the world.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 24, 2016, 07:10:47 AM
Just awesome. Mint, are there any clues what he is likely to do next? Most ex-presidents seem to drop off the radar but I wonder if this time it might be different?


Drop off the radar? In the past, yeah, they were mostly done by the time they left the WH, but I have to stand up for Carter and Clinton, who have, arguably, had more impact since they left office.

Jimmy Carter has achieved so much post-Presidency, particularly focusing on the arreas of peace and disease. The Middle East might be the first area to come to mind, but he has been involved in creating peace in many other regions. He works a lot with The Elders now, but he was doing it anyway himself. At the same time, he has achieved lots in disease eradication, with one disease in particular being almost entirely eliminated.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carter_Center

Bill Clinton is involved in everything. The Clinton Foundation and its several subsidiaries, most notably the Clinton Global Initiative, is one of the most significant charities in the world, mainly in development and healthcare, and it has some involvement in climate change. If nothing else, I believe it carries out more treatments/inoculations for malaria and HIV than any other group in the world and has done a huge amount of work in Haiti, but also numerous other countries. 

https://www.clintonfoundation.org/about

Apart from that, he is still immersed in world politics. Just as an example, he seems to have been the one who persuaded Greece not to Grexit and to accept the German austerity proposal. It was supposed to be all about the EU/Euro but apparently the White House got involved and sub-contracted the job to Bill. Did you see the WiliLeaks release last week where Podesta emailed to ask if WJC would call Tsipras to get him on board? Apparently, Bill made the call and Tsipras signed the agreement a couple of days later.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: hector62 on October 24, 2016, 10:38:30 AM
Why didn't Cameron enlist him to help win the vote here? Was Cameron so arrogant that he thought he didn't need help, or bother to explain the pros to the electorate?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 24, 2016, 12:29:58 PM
another good one

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kjyltrKZSY


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 24, 2016, 06:24:30 PM
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHsZxJlxHYw

The Donald sounds pretty good in this compilation.

Sounds good, but I would give the credit to the production team for making him come across better, cos this video is full of the lies and semi-truths typical of his whole disgraceful campaign. I would concede that there is massive interdependency between big business and politics and the Clintons are enmeshed in all that. But I believe they are trying to improve the USA and the world and have done a decent job of it so far. To get anything done requires a compromise, with others and with your own beliefs, and as soon as you do that, you leave the door open for opportunists like Trump to take easy and nasty swipes at you. The alternative, though, is not making any progress. Bill Clinton has been Compromiser-in-Chief, leaving many opportunities for attack, but look at what he has achieved for the world.

Of course. I was just trying to post something for balance, as I post enough against him and his views. Think it was put together by whoever uploaded it to Youtube, and maybe he should get them on board for the final few weeks :)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 25, 2016, 03:40:50 AM
Just awesome. Mint, are there any clues what he is likely to do next? Most ex-presidents seem to drop off the radar but I wonder if this time it might be different?

The Obamas won't be broke leaving the White House, as some previous Presidents have been. He is known to have received more than $15m from his previous books while he has been in office, and is contracted for at least one more. Bill C got $10m advance for his memoirs twenty years ago, so he should top that. No doubt there will be a Presidential Library.

Obama hasn't made it clear what he'll be doing in the longer term, and may not know himself. He has said that they both intend to spend their lives working to help others, but that could mean anything. He intends to continue working with his charity for young black men and Michelle is going to continue her work for girls' education.

The one project he has announced is working to ungerrymander the State legislatures, Governerships and Congress (which are all tilted in Republicans' favour) to give Democrat candidates a fair shot. It seems he is going to work through the States, which will take a few years and looks like a substantial amount of work and, tbh, I wouldn't have thought it was the best use of his skills/opportunity/contacts. I don't understand why he wouldn't leave that kind of thing to others and spend his time on bigger world issues. I assume he will be drawn into such matters anyway - Hillary has said she is going to use him and he is the first President for almost 100 years to continue living in Washington afterwards.

(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/05/25/16/349B7EA700000578-3607923-image-a-23_1464191157339.jpg)
The Obamas' new home

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3607923/Obamas-choose-salubrious-suburb-Karolama-DC-post-White-House-home-remain-close-Sasha-s-High-School.html


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 25, 2016, 10:45:52 AM
Donald Trump’s slimming odds of victory http://econ.st/2f9z80G

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cvjg2StXEAAXdJI.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on October 25, 2016, 12:09:40 PM
Despite the continuing disaster of Trump's campaign, and the ever stronger polling for Hillary, she's remained at 1.2 on Betfair for a couple of weeks. Looks like bettors have decided that Trump has bottomed out and can't get any less electable, and that the only thing that can stop her is some kind of systemic polling error or a deus ex machina event in the next couple of weeks (Bernie Sanders is now 'only' trading at 190 after being about 600)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on October 25, 2016, 12:28:59 PM
Despite the continuing disaster of Trump's campaign, and the ever stronger polling for Hillary, she's remained at 1.2 on Betfair for a couple of weeks. Looks like bettors have decided that Trump has bottomed out and can't get any less electable, and that the only thing that can stop her is some kind of systemic polling error or a deus ex machina event in the next couple of weeks (Bernie Sanders is now 'only' trading at 190 after being about 600)

Tory majority and Brexit were both bigger odds than Trump is now and they both prevailed.

I don't trust polls any more.

I think this could be very very close. And if Hillary does win, it will mostly be due to Trump losing a lot of female votes in the last couple of weeks.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on October 25, 2016, 01:38:39 PM
This vote should be a bit more predictable than the others mentioned due to early voting, either mail-in or in person. It had been expected that about 40% of votes would be cast before 8 Nov, but the counties have been surprised at the numbers so far and have been caught short on resources, with people queueing for 5-6 hours in parts of Georgia and Texas. Three States are entirely mail-in - ie no voting on the day.

I don't think any States give details of how many votes each candidate has had so far, but several publish running totals of how many registered voters of each party have voted. Clinton has been doing surprisingly well in Texas and more Dems than Reps have voted so far in Arizona and North Carolina. Ohio doesn't give the same detail, but requests for ballots are down 10% from Black voters in the State compared with 2012, and up 3% from Whites, which augers well for Trump. He is also ahead in Florida, though not as much as Romney and McCain were at the same stage, and they both lost the State. But Hillary isn't Obama, so make of that what you will. No landslide detected so far, but the turnout should be high.  


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Doobs on October 25, 2016, 02:37:06 PM
Despite the continuing disaster of Trump's campaign, and the ever stronger polling for Hillary, she's remained at 1.2 on Betfair for a couple of weeks. Looks like bettors have decided that Trump has bottomed out and can't get any less electable, and that the only thing that can stop her is some kind of systemic polling error or a deus ex machina event in the next couple of weeks (Bernie Sanders is now 'only' trading at 190 after being about 600)

Tory majority and Brexit were both bigger odds than Trump is now and they both prevailed.

I don't trust polls any more.

I think this could be very very close. And if Hillary does win, it will mostly be due to Trump losing a lot of female votes in the last couple of weeks.

In the month leading up to Brexit, Brexit was leading in most of the polls (circa 80% up until Jo Cox's death from memory).  It was only her death thay gave false hope.  Even then the swing had started to reverse with 2 of the last 6 polls giving a Brexit victory.

In the election, the conservatives were strong favourites to win, and it was only the absolute majority that was a surprise (outside leftie twitter anyway).  Admittedly the polls weren't great, but isn't it only 4 or 5% from a labour win to a conservative landslide?  Though maybe this has changed with the SNP landslide in Scotland.  And FWIW the BBC exit poll was spot on from memory, but people just didn't believe it for a few hours.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 26, 2016, 10:48:55 AM
No matter who wins, the 2016 election will not have a happy ending http://econ.st/2eCCsyr

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cvn1CgkW8AAg0WG.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 26, 2016, 02:11:11 PM
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvgnOqcCYCM

:D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 27, 2016, 11:13:48 AM
For the Sam Harris fanboys

Latest podcast spends 90 minutes explaining why the Clintons are utterly morally repugnant, it really is one of the better Clinton takedowns I've seen.

And then still makes the case for why they are the better option than Trump:

https://www.samharris.org/podcast/item/the-lesser-evil

This is what sets Harris apart from almost every other social commentator. Most of us 'straw man' meaning we attack an inaccurate and more easily defeatable version of an opponent's argument, Harris almost always 'steel mans' which is he provides the best version of an opponent's argument and then dismantles it.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 27, 2016, 03:59:51 PM
For the Sam Harris fanboys

Latest podcast spends 90 minutes explaining why the Clintons are utterly morally repugnant, it really is one of the better Clinton takedowns I've seen.

And then still makes the case for why they are the better option than Trump:

https://www.samharris.org/podcast/item/the-lesser-evil

This is what sets Harris apart from almost every other social commentator. Most of us 'straw man' meaning we attack an inaccurate and more easily defeatable version of an opponent's argument, Harris almost always 'steel mans' which is he provides the best version of an opponent's argument and then dismantles it.

That's my evening sorted.

Cheers.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Karabiner on October 27, 2016, 08:30:14 PM
This is fantastic and needs more exposure imho so if someone clever can embed the link please:

http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/pussy-riot-slam-trump-in-make-america-great-again-video-w447003


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on October 28, 2016, 11:40:48 AM
For the Sam Harris fanboys

Latest podcast spends 90 minutes explaining why the Clintons are utterly morally repugnant, it really is one of the better Clinton takedowns I've seen.

And then still makes the case for why they are the better option than Trump:

https://www.samharris.org/podcast/item/the-lesser-evil

This is what sets Harris apart from almost every other social commentator. Most of us 'straw man' meaning we attack an inaccurate and more easily defeatable version of an opponent's argument, Harris almost always 'steel mans' which is he provides the best version of an opponent's argument and then dismantles it.

When I saw that was two and a half hours long I thought 'I'm not listening to all that' but I did - it really is very good.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on October 28, 2016, 07:11:44 PM
ooh

FBI reopening its investigation into Hillary Clinton's email server after new discovery of 'pertinent' emails.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cv3taHuVUAA9Ky_.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 28, 2016, 07:35:25 PM
This is fantastic and needs more exposure imho so if someone clever can embed the link please:

http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/pussy-riot-slam-trump-in-make-america-great-again-video-w447003

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-bKFo30o2o

LOL


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on October 28, 2016, 07:52:57 PM
Hillary jumps from 1.2 to 1.34 on Betfair.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on October 28, 2016, 08:03:47 PM
Bernie Sanders matched at 70 to be next president - lol.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: ripple11 on October 28, 2016, 10:14:41 PM
I read yesterday William Hill said that the most money has gone on Hillary, but the greater number of small bets has gone on Trump, which by all accounts was the exact same thing that happened with Brexit.

I know a poker player who has put his entire bankroll and liferoll on Clinton winning, which given anything could happen in the next few weeks including her getting ill, some wikileaks scandal or an assassination attempt, seems particularly stupid.

.......you were saying!


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 28, 2016, 10:40:31 PM
Bernie Sanders matched at 70 to be next president - lol.

Feel the Bernnnnnnnnnnnn :D


Sam Stein from the HP tweeted -

So, this is
1. not abt Clinton-sent emails
2. not about her server
3. found on weiner device
4. may be only 3 emails
5. wtf


Haven't looked into it in any more depth as I'm still working, but should be an interesting weekend :)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on October 28, 2016, 10:48:36 PM
On the plus side, having dithered over backing Hillary just before the first debate when she was 1.6, then done a drunk, panic, all-in bet when she was 1.19 (the lowest she's been), today has allowed me to get a chunk on at 1.33.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: ripple11 on October 28, 2016, 11:43:37 PM
Bernie Sanders matched at 70 to be next president - lol.

Panic.....there's even candidates shortening on oddschecker I've never heard of  :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on October 28, 2016, 11:56:30 PM
Bernie Sanders matched at 70 to be next president - lol.

Panic.....there's even candidates shortening on oddschecker I've never heard of  :D

I'll have you know I have a fiver at 1000 on Evan McMullin


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 29, 2016, 02:10:01 PM
This popped up in the wall of vids after I watched a Rogan vid, and I was expecting it to be some form of satire halfway through.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOPPS3O234c

Just amazing!


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 30, 2016, 12:54:12 PM
Think this latest Hillary thing is exactly the same as the Trump 'grab the pussy' comments. Nobody who would have voted for Hillary before them is going to change their mind but those still on the fence might get swung, or maybe more likely, not vote.

Someink batshit crazy almost certainly will happen between now and then, but I think Trump's gonna nick it.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: lucky_scrote on October 30, 2016, 01:06:42 PM
It's been interesting seeing such shifts in the markets. Both presidents obviously have many skeletons in the closet so it was always going to be swingy. I imagine not much is going to change with the markets until doomsday.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 31, 2016, 06:53:06 PM
The Donald has definitely improved his public speaking as the campaign has gone on.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 31, 2016, 07:06:48 PM
The Donald has definitely improved his public speaking as the campaign has gone on.

Had the telly on with the sound off, did he say anything noteworthy?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 31, 2016, 07:17:52 PM
The Donald has definitely improved his public speaking as the campaign has gone on.

Had the telly on with the sound off, did he say anything noteworthy?

Not really, but now he can string 3 sentences together without repeating the same thing several times. Occasionally :)

Plenty of the usual stuff, and apparently his friends say they can't go to Paris anymore because of the Muslims.

'Paris? We don't go there anymore. Are you crazy?'

We'll make sure that doesn't happen here!


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on October 31, 2016, 07:32:41 PM
The Donald has definitely improved his public speaking as the campaign has gone on.

Had the telly on with the sound off, did he say anything noteworthy?

Not really, but now he can string 3 sentences together without repeating the same thing several times. Occasionally :)




Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on October 31, 2016, 07:40:38 PM
Haha, I'd like to say great minds, but... Still, good to see a shrewd judge thinks the same ;D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on November 01, 2016, 10:55:30 AM
Seen a lot of folks slating Hillary this morning, I am guessing because of this story where a CNN pundit fed her debate questions ahead of time

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cnn-cuts-ties-with-donna-brazile-after-hacked-emails-suggest-she-gave-clinton-campaign-debate-questions-183855590.html

Or has there been anything since that? Hard to tell what counts as 'shocking' in this election anymore.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on November 01, 2016, 10:58:29 AM
With a week to go until Election Day, will Donald Trump get the surge he needs on the Roadto270?

https://apnews.com/2ef16f88276c4070b5489d4c38bd8b11


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: RED-DOG on November 01, 2016, 11:18:25 AM
I'm no lover of Hillary but I think the FBI were in the wrong to release the email investigation details at this critical time.

The links to Clinton are tenuous at best and the likelihood of any criminal charges virtually non existent.

There is no possible benefit other than political sabotage.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on November 01, 2016, 11:36:43 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwKufcDWYAAqTkd.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on November 01, 2016, 03:49:50 PM
Bit of luck the $ will return to pre-brexit levels, if the donald gets in...


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on November 01, 2016, 04:09:17 PM
lol!

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwISbwAUsAA0BCr.jpg:large)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on November 01, 2016, 05:02:38 PM
Michelle Obama has deleted three years of tweets including all mentions of Hillary.

Given Hillary's most redeeming feature was Michelle Obama thinks she is ok, this is going to be interesting.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on November 01, 2016, 06:24:23 PM
Something to get The Camel interested in this thread - Daniel Negreanu does his reads on Clinton and Trump

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a50121/poker-clinton-trump-tells/


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on November 01, 2016, 07:07:43 PM
Something to get The Camel interested in this thread - Daniel Negreanu does his reads on Clinton and Trump

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a50121/poker-clinton-trump-tells/

;D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: aaron1867 on November 02, 2016, 02:39:35 AM
Think this latest Hillary thing is exactly the same as the Trump 'grab the pussy' comments. Nobody who would have voted for Hillary before them is going to change their mind but those still on the fence might get swung, or maybe more likely, not vote.

Someink batshit crazy almost certainly will happen between now and then, but I think Trump's gonna nick it.


I see your point, but with the latest outcomes, isn't it quite likely that those voters who are voting for the "lesser of two evils", would just not vote anyway? Which might be just as crucial as a voter swapping alliances?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on November 02, 2016, 10:12:29 AM
Bookies odds on next US President narrowing slightly. Clinton 2/5. Trump 5/2....


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Woodsey on November 03, 2016, 01:09:17 AM
Yeah I know I know, I'm a bad person for laughing when I saw this so save it, guess it was inevitable this would pop up though...

(http://i444.photobucket.com/albums/qq167/Andr4w/DD4581EA-5CAB-4A64-8531-7261EBE59759-2813-0000031CD144A909_tmp_zps603moeqh.jpeg) (http://s444.photobucket.com/user/Andr4w/media/DD4581EA-5CAB-4A64-8531-7261EBE59759-2813-0000031CD144A909_tmp_zps603moeqh.jpeg.html)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DropTheHammer on November 03, 2016, 01:37:10 AM
Bookies odds on next US President narrowing slightly. Clinton 2/5. Trump 5/2....

Surely Trump's odds will creep lower before the big day? I think this is much closer to a 50/50 than the bookies reckon...

I lumped on him a while ago but still hope he doesn't get there, but - like Brexit - a bit of financial insurance is a nice saver.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Jon MW on November 03, 2016, 07:03:57 AM
Bookies odds on next US President narrowing slightly. Clinton 2/5. Trump 5/2....

Surely Trump's odds will creep lower before the big day? I think this is much closer to a 50/50 than the bookies reckon...

I lumped on him a while ago but still hope he doesn't get there, but - like Brexit - a bit of financial insurance is a nice saver.

Somewhere I read that Clinton would have to get indicted for the race to get close to 50/50 which I think sounds about right - don't see that happening. I think the current odds are just a reflection of the overall closeness of the national polling rather than because Trump has any actual chance of winning.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on November 03, 2016, 10:59:51 AM
There is an argument that the polls tightening actually helps Clinton - as the spectre of President Trump looms it may encourage people who were anti-Trump but also quite anti-Hillary to actually hold their noses and go out and vote for her, whereas if it looked a lock for Hillary many of these people would just stay at home.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on November 03, 2016, 11:07:19 AM
There is an argument that the polls tightening actually helps Clinton - as the spectre of President Trump looms it may encourage people who were anti-Trump but also quite anti-Hillary to actually hold their noses and go out and vote for her, whereas if it looked a lock for Hillary many of these people would just stay at home.

Plenty of folks will apply the same logic the other way around though, I've seen many liberals who just cannot bring themselves to support Hillary, mostly those against war in the Middle East. Plus you have all the Bernie Bros who are voting for Trump even though despite being on the complete opposite end of the spectrum.

I think whoever wins, it will be a landslide, either we have underestimated the power of the Trump Train or it was completely overblown and nobody can bring themselves to let him win.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on November 03, 2016, 01:11:15 PM
I think whoever wins, it will be a landslide, either we have underestimated the power of the Trump Train or it was completely overblown and nobody can bring themselves to let him win.

I do think there is a lot of uncertainty which makes odd results more likely. I've had a dabble on Clinton winning over 410 EC votes at 33/1 (though that does mean her winning Texas so....)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on November 03, 2016, 03:29:17 PM
Edit: wrong thread


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on November 07, 2016, 06:17:41 AM
The Donald at his best  :D

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRQwWHa6ywg



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: ripple11 on November 07, 2016, 12:23:04 PM
Hillary as low as 1/6 now she'd been "cleared" over emails....as big as 4/9 a few days ago I think!


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on November 07, 2016, 02:59:51 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwfunAVXgAALtVu.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on November 07, 2016, 04:59:33 PM
Anyone see the Anthony Wiener doc on BBC4 last night? It was amazing, one of the most revealing political docs I've ever seen.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on November 07, 2016, 05:02:38 PM
Anyone see the Anthony Wiener doc on BBC4 last night? It was amazing, one of the most revealing political docs I've ever seen.

Literally, I imagine ;D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on November 07, 2016, 05:09:31 PM
Anyone see the Anthony Wiener doc on BBC4 last night? It was amazing, one of the most revealing political docs I've ever seen.

Barry loves Wiener


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on November 07, 2016, 05:35:24 PM
Anyone see the Anthony Wiener doc on BBC4 last night? It was amazing, one of the most revealing political docs I've ever seen.

Nope, but gonna have to at some point now that you've mentioned it. I'm sure it would be fascinating. Apparently it was Hillary who pushed him and Huma together.

Biden's reaction when he was told that Weiner was the source of the email resurrection last week:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cd1mIh1tUig


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on November 07, 2016, 06:06:35 PM
Staying up late tomorrow night?Here's a guide for this side of the pond on when the results start to come in in every state

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwpdAm6WEAAvNRv.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: The Camel on November 07, 2016, 06:45:38 PM
What happens if the elcted winner decides not to accept the Presidency?

Another election or the winning party nominate a different person for President?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on November 07, 2016, 07:54:38 PM
What happens if the elcted winner decides not to accept the Presidency?

Another election or the winning party nominate a different person for President?

It would be similar to a President-elect dying before inauguration.

The President is elected when the Electoral College votes, not tomorrow. If the Pres-elect dies or declines after that, it is like a resignation/death in office and the VP-elect gets the job. If it is before, the party can nominate whoever they want. It's actually a bit more complicated than that, but neither has ever happened.

Incidentally, the EC votes in December but, for some antiquated reason, the votes don't get counted until 6 Jan, so there is uncertainty about whether the Pres is elected when the EC votes or the votes are counted, and what would happen if they died during that time.

If something happened to both the Pres and VP-elect, the Speaker of the House would be promoted - welcome President Ryan.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on November 07, 2016, 08:36:56 PM
Rogan just gone live with Dave Rubin

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIFZV89Zhp8



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Woodsey on November 08, 2016, 12:28:32 AM
Not that it changes our life that much (unless The Don presses the red button lol), but does anyone actually want trump to win?

Ok I'll rephrase that, there will be people on here who do want trump to win, but is there anyone willing to admit that publicly?  rotflmfao


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on November 08, 2016, 01:01:13 AM
First result will be tonight from Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, at one minute past midnight, Eastern Time, more than five hours before other polling stations open. They usually have less than a dozen voters, who all collect just before midnight and vote on the dot.

2012:

(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/zNjr9B9ndtA_rzif1enKcQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9NDUwO2g9MjY4O2lsPXBsYW5l/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/Reuters/2015-10-27T122007Z_2_LYNXNPEB9Q0OT_RTROPTP_2_USA-ELECTION-NEW-HAMPSHIRE.JPG.cf.jpg)(http://i3.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article1419343.ece/ALTERNATES/s615/A%20man%20casts%20his%20ballot%20inside%20a%20polling%20station%20just%20after%20midnight)(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/4k4s_bKDLt62vWySYR8c6A--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9NDUwO2g9MzAwO2lsPXBsYW5l/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/Reuters/2015-10-27T122007Z_2_LYNXNPEB9Q0OU_RTROPTP_2_USA-ELECTION-NEW-HAMPSHIRE.JPG.cf.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: aaron1867 on November 08, 2016, 02:22:47 AM
Not that it changes our life that much (unless The Don presses the red button lol), but does anyone actually want trump to win?

Ok I'll rephrase that, there will be people on here who do want trump to win, but is there anyone willing to admit that publicly?  rotflmfao

I'm not particulary fond of Clinton, she looks a really fake person whenever she's speaking and the smiles & waves are just as fake. I think I've began to like Trump, he does seem to want the best for USA, but is just too honest and often doesn't help himself. I could never ever vote for Clinton, but could see myself liking the trump train.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on November 08, 2016, 02:40:10 AM
Not that it changes our life that much (unless The Don presses the red button lol), but does anyone actually want trump to win?

Ok I'll rephrase that, there will be people on here who do want trump to win, but is there anyone willing to admit that publicly?  rotflmfao

I'm not particulary fond of Clinton, she looks a really fake person whenever she's speaking and the smiles & waves are just as fake. I think I've began to like Trump, he does seem to want the best for USA, but is just too honest and often doesn't help himself. I could never ever vote for Clinton, but could see myself liking the trump train.

She looks fake, because she is pretty much, as are most career politicians, in my limited experience of seeing them. He's no better, and I think he was about 40% worse on the fact checking of both candidates during speeches/debates.

That said, she's not emotionally retarded, and in possession of a teenager's temperament. That is what I'd consider the biggest red flag for someone wanting to be running the most powerful nation on earth.

Pretty com that he has managed to get this far, or rather they both have, as they're terrible, terrible people, imo.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on November 08, 2016, 03:25:45 AM
Not that it changes our life that much (unless The Don presses the red button lol), but does anyone actually want trump to win?

Ok I'll rephrase that, there will be people on here who do want trump to win, but is there anyone willing to admit that publicly?  rotflmfao

I don't think that having Trump as President would be as bad as we imagine. A number of his positions are to the left of mainstream Republicans and would be more socially responsible to our eyes. In areas where he didn't have a developed view, he has simply adopted the mainstream GOP position, so would be no better or worse than a traditional Republican President. On his headline policies, he'd get the irrelevant wall, but the more extreme ones would get tied up in Congress and never happen. The main tension would be around his isolationism, both anti-trade protectionism and non-intervention in world affairs, though it's hard to know to what extent either would come to pass.

I'm actually surprised, though, that you're not on the Trump train. I would have thought he was right up your and arbboy's street.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on November 08, 2016, 03:40:00 AM
Heavy rain is likely in reliably Republican central Southern States tomorrow, but elsewhere is mainly expected to be okay weather-wise.

Why does ithe matter? Because bad weather is good news for Republican candidates. Their supporters tend to be more determined to turn up and are more likely to have their own transport. At the most extreme it is reckoned to have a 3-4% effect. Bad weather on Election Day was one more variable that cost Al Gore the 2000 election.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on November 08, 2016, 04:02:13 AM
Kelly Anne Conway might be the most irritating person I've seen, from either side, and including the donald!


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on November 08, 2016, 04:03:21 AM
Heavy rain is likely in reliably Republican central Southern States tomorrow, but elsewhere is mainly expected to be okay weather-wise.

Why does ithe matter? Because bad weather is good news for Republican candidates. Their supporters tend to be more determined to turn up and are more likely to have their own transport. At the most extreme it is reckoned to have a 3-4% effect. Bad weather on Election Day was one more variable that cost Al Gore the 2000 election.


They'll be doing their raindance in Trump towers then, lol.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: aaron1867 on November 08, 2016, 04:13:42 AM
Not that it changes our life that much (unless The Don presses the red button lol), but does anyone actually want trump to win?

Ok I'll rephrase that, there will be people on here who do want trump to win, but is there anyone willing to admit that publicly?  rotflmfao

I'm not particulary fond of Clinton, she looks a really fake person whenever she's speaking and the smiles & waves are just as fake. I think I've began to like Trump, he does seem to want the best for USA, but is just too honest and often doesn't help himself. I could never ever vote for Clinton, but could see myself liking the trump train.

She looks fake, because she is pretty much, as are most career politicians, in my limited experience of seeing them. He's no better, and I think he was about 40% worse on the fact checking of both candidates during speeches/debates.

That said, she's not emotionally retarded, and in possession of a teenager's temperament. That is what I'd consider the biggest red flag for someone wanting to be running the most powerful nation on earth.

Pretty com that he has managed to get this far, or rather they both have, as they're terrible, terrible people, imo.

I get what you are saying, but are we really to believe that Trump is going to do what he actually says? He isn't going to build a wall, he isn't going to ban muslims, but instead when he gets away from the controversial stuff, his health & economic plans sound OK. I don't believe he's ever much closer to pressing the red button, just because of what he says. I think it's all about saying what people want to hear and behind all that there is a likely level headed person, after all he is a multi billionaire with a huge empire


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on November 08, 2016, 04:27:29 AM
Not that it changes our life that much (unless The Don presses the red button lol), but does anyone actually want trump to win?

Ok I'll rephrase that, there will be people on here who do want trump to win, but is there anyone willing to admit that publicly?  rotflmfao

I'm not particulary fond of Clinton, she looks a really fake person whenever she's speaking and the smiles & waves are just as fake. I think I've began to like Trump, he does seem to want the best for USA, but is just too honest and often doesn't help himself. I could never ever vote for Clinton, but could see myself liking the trump train.

She looks fake, because she is pretty much, as are most career politicians, in my limited experience of seeing them. He's no better, and I think he was about 40% worse on the fact checking of both candidates during speeches/debates.

That said, she's not emotionally retarded, and in possession of a teenager's temperament. That is what I'd consider the biggest red flag for someone wanting to be running the most powerful nation on earth.

Pretty com that he has managed to get this far, or rather they both have, as they're terrible, terrible people, imo.

I get what you are saying, but are we really to believe that Trump is going to do what he actually says? He isn't going to build a wall, he isn't going to ban muslims, but instead when he gets away from the controversial stuff, his health & economic plans sound OK. I don't believe he's ever much closer to pressing the red button, just because of what he says. I think it's all about saying what people want to hear and behind all that there is a likely level headed person, after all he is a multi billionaire with a huge empire

No, because he wouldn't have a clue where to start, lol.

It's going to be tremendous. It's going to be great. It's going to be so amazing.

If you think he's  level headed, then you're either trolling, or you're on another planet :D



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on November 08, 2016, 05:10:36 AM
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2n4CVuS4Cw

Interesting stuff.

Krauthammer thinks Trump might be around as party leader, even if he loses.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DungBeetle on November 08, 2016, 07:56:17 AM
Not that it changes our life that much (unless The Don presses the red button lol), but does anyone actually want trump to win?

Ok I'll rephrase that, there will be people on here who do want trump to win, but is there anyone willing to admit that publicly?  rotflmfao

My old folks want Trump to win.  Sigh.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on November 08, 2016, 11:00:13 AM
I'm sure Krauthammer is right but, whether Trump continues or not, I think he has changed a couple of things that we will see again.

One is that the nativism he has displayed is likely to be taken up by others and continue to be a thorn in the Republican Party's side, with or without Trump.

The second is that his success will probably mean that his insulting approach will be copied - the USA isn't short of entitled blowhards. 


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Woodsey on November 08, 2016, 12:25:45 PM
Biff Tannen  rotflmfao

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/06/time-to-decide-do-we-want-biff-tannen-or-mary-tyler-moore-in-the-white-house


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on November 08, 2016, 01:20:39 PM
An early lead for Clinton - but quickly overtaken by Trump

The result is in from Dixville Notch and Clinton took an early lead. Only seven voters were registered (one of whom had voted in advance) and there was late drama with an on-the-day registration, which delayed things slightly. There were nine votes in the Primaries, but someone moved away.

With turnout having reached 100%, the polls were closed and counted:

Hillary Clinton 4
Donald Trump 2
Gary Johnson  1
Mitt Romney    1

(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2016/11/08/113175054-epa-dixville-results-large_trans++ZgEkZX3M936N5BQK4Va8RUbgHFEZVI1Pljic_pW9c90.jpg)


The lead didn't last long though. NH rules allow electorates of less than 100 voters to open early and three remote areas get it out of the way at midnight. Hillary won Hart's Location 17-14, but Donald took Millsfield 16-4, putting him 32-25 ahead.

Can he hold on?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: moustache on November 08, 2016, 01:38:03 PM
Biff Tannen  rotflmfao

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/06/time-to-decide-do-we-want-biff-tannen-or-mary-tyler-moore-in-the-white-house

LOL! Both of the candidates can "make like a tree and get out of here!" Iv always believed that most heads of state are just poster boys/girls controlled by a large committee pulling the strings anyway.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on November 08, 2016, 01:38:45 PM
this is an interesting piece

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/07/who-is-to-blame-us-election-trump

going through and "naming and shaming" those responsible for Trump's rise


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: atdc21 on November 08, 2016, 02:04:46 PM
The Yanks must be gutted they cant keep Obamha. What a pair of ***** they have to pick from.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: exstream on November 08, 2016, 02:23:28 PM
https://www.sunbets.co.uk/sports/betting/Politics/competitions/US%20Politics

Trump wins and declares war on Mexico 1846/1


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on November 08, 2016, 02:30:41 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cwvk_fpXAAAflxb.jpg)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cwvk2_NXcAAor0t.jpg)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on November 08, 2016, 06:33:50 PM
Early indicators in North Carolina not good for Clinton.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/

I think Obama winning NC in 08 was an aberration. It had been Rep for a long time and even he didn't hold it last time. It is surprising that Clinton has led a lot of the polls here. Trump probably has to hold it to win - could be very close there.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: neeko on November 08, 2016, 07:12:08 PM
My Electoral College guess is Clinton 313.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: TightEnd on November 08, 2016, 07:37:36 PM
The beauty of the German language, explained in one newspaper's front page

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwwF3B0XAAAuoDE.jpg:large)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on November 08, 2016, 09:02:22 PM
.YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mGNlUtsK7w


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DaveShoelace on November 08, 2016, 09:08:16 PM
.YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mGNlUtsK7w


The tragic part of all this is Bill didn't even know there was a challenge going on


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: pleno1 on November 08, 2016, 09:23:51 PM
would you guys recommend converting stars $ into euros just incase?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on November 08, 2016, 09:30:33 PM
would you guys recommend converting stars $ into euros just incase?

I've bought some $$ for next summer, as I don't think the donald is winning.



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: aaron1867 on November 08, 2016, 10:19:56 PM
I'm interested to know what people think about Russia's aggression if Trump gets in? Is it possible that Russia may step back on the temperament of Trump? That he is potentially more likely to get involved quicker?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on November 08, 2016, 10:54:43 PM
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKJCD780Rdc


 rotflmfao


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on November 08, 2016, 11:35:18 PM
After not being able to break through 1.2 on Betfair all day, she's gone to 1.14 in the last ten minutes - people like what they see in the early exit poll data.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Ironside on November 08, 2016, 11:52:50 PM
what channel is everyone watching the results on?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on November 09, 2016, 12:08:06 AM
I'm watching it on Fox, same as I have the other shows.

Going to mute the TV at 2am, and watch Rogan's live podcast with Stanhope and some other mates.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Teacake on November 09, 2016, 12:14:12 AM
what channel is everyone watching the results on?

CNN


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on November 09, 2016, 12:26:48 AM
what channel is everyone watching the results on?

Flicking. Will probably settle on Fox later online and carry on flicking the telly.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Longy on November 09, 2016, 12:28:14 AM
what channel is everyone watching the results on?

CNN

Yeah I have found CNN best for previous us elections and got the five thirtyeight live blog up. I like my election nights with results and analysis especially early on.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Ironside on November 09, 2016, 12:29:45 AM
hate the adverts watching on CNN though as the BBC seem to have dumbed it down so that a 6 year old can understand it


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on November 09, 2016, 12:31:17 AM
hate the adverts watching on CNN though as the BBC seem to have dumbed it down so that a 6 year old can understand it

In their defence, we did vote leave :p


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on November 09, 2016, 12:37:44 AM
hate the adverts watching on CNN though as the BBC seem to have dumbed it down so that a 6 year old can understand it

Yeah, I agree. Think I'll stick with online. The UK channels do understand the nitty-gritty of it, but they don't have the cultural background of having grown up with it. The US presenters have cross-references in their head that are beyond our guys, however knowledgeable they may become.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Rexas on November 09, 2016, 01:07:45 AM
Also I'm watching the TYT live stream, which I'm very pleased to have discovered as a result of this thread so thanks guys!


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on November 09, 2016, 01:12:40 AM
Several States that were strongly Clinton are now Toss-Up on RealClearPolitics. She still has a few points lead in them all, and will probably hold them in the end, but some are getting a bit close for comfort:

Michigan
Penn
Virginia
Maine
New Hampshire


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on November 09, 2016, 01:19:53 AM
Couldn't resist, had some of the 5/1 Trump

BBC coverage has been a bit of a grind, CNN it is I think



Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on November 09, 2016, 01:19:56 AM
Betfair getting quite jumpy - twice saw a couple of quick moves in favour of Trump which then equally quickly reverted back to the Clinton 1.2 area. Looks like people are overreacting to data they think is important but which doesn't actually tell us anything we didn't already know.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Teacake on November 09, 2016, 01:23:58 AM
Senior Trump advisor saying they need a miracle, source CNN


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on November 09, 2016, 01:25:28 AM
If people are betting, why not take Hillary to win Cali at 1/50 for a guaranteed 2% return. Need to put plenty on to make it worth it.

Or buy some shares.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on November 09, 2016, 01:26:31 AM
Evidence of ticket splitting in Florida - people voting for Marco Rubio for the Senate but not Trump.

CNN show Clinton up by 2% in Florida with 2.7m votes counted.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on November 09, 2016, 01:28:58 AM
Not enough Megyn Kelly for me, so gone to CNN until Rogan starts.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: AndrewT on November 09, 2016, 01:42:31 AM
More ticket splitting in Ohio - CNN have called the Senate seat for the Republican, but the Presidential race still too close to call. Looks like a chunk of Republican supporters are not voting for Trump.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Jon MW on November 09, 2016, 01:46:21 AM
I don't know if anyone has particularly looked at the NY Times election coverage - but they have tonnes of data in pretty accessible graphics. I particularly like the live forecast swingometers :)


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Longy on November 09, 2016, 01:59:31 AM
Hillary shortening significantly on betfair in last 10 minutes, trump trailing in Florida and North Carolina is big.


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: DMorgan on November 09, 2016, 02:15:43 AM
How close does Florida have to be for Trump to contest the result?


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: Marky147 on November 09, 2016, 02:29:04 AM
How close does Florida have to be for Trump to contest the result?

Knowing the donald, I'd say around 100k or so :D


Title: Re: The Next President of the United States
Post by: MintTrav on November 09, 2016, 02:36:22 AM
Not enough Megyn Kelly for me, so gone to CNN until Rogan starts.

New hairstyle not good enough. It's been a gradual decline.

(http://www.aim.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/megyn-kelly-fox-news-at-gop-debate.png)(http://a57.foxnews.com/media2.foxnews.com/BrightCove/694940094001/2016/0